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The Voters
3 Groups of Individual for instance Poor, MiddleIncome, Rich (P, M, R):
Income: YP < YM < YR
Proportion in the Population: aP, aM, aR. And aJ = 1
Individual Ideology
How are Voters Distributed within each Group (P, M, R)
according their Ideology?
Uniform Distribution Function with Density J
Voters
closer to A
- 1/2 J
Neutral
Voters
Voters
closer to B
1/2 J
Notice
- 1/2
No
Scandals
Scandal
favors B
1/2
2)
Individual Ideology: iJ
3)
Average Popularity:
Voters SWING
for A VOTER
- 1/2 J
J 0
Voters
for B
J
1/2 J
Group J
- 1/2 J
Voters in group J:
J
J 0
1/2 J
( J+1/2 J) J = J J +1/2 =
1/2 + J[U J(XA, YA) - U J(XB, YB)] - J
A > 1/2
1/2
Pr ( < ) = ( + 1/2 )