ANALISIS DE LA DEMANDA ACTUAL

AO
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

CONS CARNE
P/HABIT

AO
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

CONS CARNE
INGRESO
P/HABIT
P/HABIT
25
300
26
320
27
320
26
330
29
340
31
360
30
370
34
380
35
400
34
420

Y
25
26
27
26
29
31
30
34
35
34

y PROMEDIO
a=

( Y ) ( X 2 ) ( X )( XY )
a=
2
N ( X 2 ) ( X )
b=

LOG C
1.39794001
1.41497335
1.43136376
1.41497335
1.46239800
1.49136169
1.47712125
1.53147892
1.54406804
1.53147892
14.69715729
1.46971573

2.54670112

logc
1.39794001
1.41497335
1.43136376
1.41497335
1.46239800
1.49136169
1.47712125

b=

N ( X ) ( X )

a=YPROM bXPROM

INGRESO
X
P/HABIT
LOG Y
300
2.47712125
320
2.50514998
320
2.50514998
330
2.51851394
340
2.53147892
360
2.55630250
370
2.56820172
380
2.57978360
400
2.60205999
420
2.62324929
25.46701117

-1.31730529

N ( XY ) ( X ) ( Y )

6.13612971
6.27577641
6.27577641
6.34291247
6.40838551
6.53468248
6.59566010
6.65528341
6.77071620
6.88143684
64.87675953

1.0943652

logy
2.477121255
2.505149978
2.505149978
2.51851394
2.531478917
2.556302501
2.568201724

antilog a =

i y=

0.0048160912

420
1=0 . 038093444
300

i y=
1.53147892 2.579783597
1.54406804 2.602059991
1.53147892 2.62324929
1997
1998
1999
2000

35.4199153893
36.8991295681
38.4401190158
40.0454635982

435.9992448
452.6079559
469.8493499
0

420
1=0 . 038093444
300

Y 97=420 [ 1+0.038093444 ]

 Y ) ( X 2 ) ( X )( XY )
2
N ( X 2 ) ( X )
( XY ) ( X ) ( Y )
2
2
N ( X ) ( X )

YPROM bXPROM
XY

Y
3.46286691
3.54472045
3.58578090
3.56363010
3.70202970
3.81237163
3.79354535
3.95088419
4.01775768
4.01745098
37.45103790

0
1=0 . 038093444
0

a=

1.95423627
2.00214958
2.04880223
2.00214958
2.13860790
2.22415970
2.18188720
2.34542767
2.38414613
2.34542767
21.62699392

-1.317305287 ls logc c logy

C97 =34

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/16/06 Time: 16:41
Sample: 1987 1996
Included observations: 10
Variable

Coefficient

C
INGPER

-1.317305
1.094365

Std. Error

t-Statistic

0.320844
0.125965

-4.105753
8.687869

R-squared

0.904168

Mean dependent var

Adjusted R-squ

0.892189

S.D. dependent var

S.E. of regress

0.017767

Akaike info criterion

Sum squared re

0.002525

Schwarz criterion

Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson

27.23062
2.544027

F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

[ ]
yT

y0

1. 0943652

0
1=0 . 038093444
0

420 [ 1+0.038093444 ]

C97 =34

[ ]
yT

y0

1. 0943652
funcin
1.3935698
1.42424346
1.42424346
1.43886851
1.45305693
1.48022299
1.49324508

Eviews
1.3935699513
1.4242436096
1.4242436096
1.4388686641
1.4530570834
1.4802231491
1.4932452444

AO
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006

y
x
CONS PESCADOCARNE
INGRESO
P/HABIT
logy
P/HABIT
logx
50 1.69897000
600 2.77815125
52 1.71600334
640 2.80617997
57 1.75587486
645 2.80955971
50 1.69897000
660 2.81954394
63 1.79934055
680 2.83250891
48 1.68124124
690 2.83884909
46 1.66275783
700 2.84509804
76 1.88081359
780 2.89209460
82 1.91381385
790 2.89762709
85 1.92941893
795 2.90036713

Dependent Variable: LOGC

Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/03/15 Time: 12:35
Sample: 1 10
Included observations: 10
Prob.

Variable
0.0034
0

1.469716

C
LOGY

Coefficient
-1.317305
1.094365

^^

Std. Error
0.320844
0.125965

t-Statistic
-4.105753
8.687869

Prob.
0.0034 0.04816095
0

R-squared

0.904168

Mean dependent var

1.469716

0.05411

Adjusted R-s

0.892189

S.D. dependent var

0.05411

-5.046124

S.E. of regre

0.017767

Akaike info criterion

-5.046124

-4.985607

Sum squared

0.002525

Schwarz criterion

-4.985607

75.47907
0.000024

Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statist

27.23062
75.47907
0.000024

Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat

-5.112511
2.544027

CONSUMO
logC
1.69897
1.71600334
1.75587486
1.69897
1.79934055
1.68124124
1.66275783
1.88081359
1.91381385
1.92941893

INGRESO
logY
2.77815125
2.80617997
2.80955971
2.81954394
2.83250891
2.83884909
2.84509804
2.8920946
2.89762709
2.90036713

Dependent Variable: LOGC

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 10:08
Sample: 1997 2006
Included observations: 10
Variable

Coefficient

C
LOGY
R-squared 0.655621
Adjusted R-s 0.612574
S.E. of regre 0.062823
Sum squared 0.031574
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson

Dependent Variable: LOGC

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 10:08
Sample: 1997 2006
Included observations: 10
Variable
C
LOGY
R-squared
Adjusted Rsquared
S.E. of
regression
Sum
squared
resid
Log
likelihood
DurbinWatson stat

Std. Error
-3.72853
1,410,037
0.93605 0.496094

1,460,066
1,541,022

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

Coefficient
-3,728,531
1,936,051
0.655621
0.612574

Std. Error
1,410,037
0.496094
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var

0.062823

Akaike info criterion

0.031574

Schwarz criterion

1,460,066

F-statistic

1,541,022

Prob(F-statistic)

DEMAN 95
DEMAN 96

76.107
77.042
0.00018684

t-Statistic

Prob.

-2,644,279 0.0295
3,902,591 0.0045
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Prob(F-statistic)

t-Statistic
-2,644,279
3,902,591
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var

1,773,720
0.100931
-2,520,132
-2,459,615
1,523,021
0.004528

Prob.
0.0295
0.0045
1,773,720
0.100931

Akaike info criterion

-2,520,132

Schwarz criterion

-2,459,615

F-statistic

1,523,021

Prob(F-statistic)

0.004528

0,00018684 Y 1,9360514

aos
x

ao

demanda
Y

Y cuadrado
xy
$b
100.00
400
900
2025
4900
8100
15625
22500
32400

1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3

10 ls y c x
20
30
45
70
90
125
150
180

1996

220

48400

880

1997

270

72900

1350

1210
208250
METODOS DE PROYECCION DE MERCADO
1. EXTRAPOLACION DE LA TENDENCIA HISTORICA DEL CONSUMO TOTAL

2815

AO

AO
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

-50
-80 proyeccin
-90
1998
-90
1999
-70
2000
0
2001
125
2002
300
2003
540
2004
2005

CONSUMO
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

66.6
84.9
88.6
78
96.8
105.2
93.2
111.6
88.3
117
115.2

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/25/14 Time: 22:2
Sample: 1990 2000
Included observations: 11
Variable
C
X

proyeccion
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2010
Y cuadrado XY
4435.56
7208.01
7849.96
6084
9370.24
11067.04
8686.24

AO
-333
-339.6
-265.8
-156
-96.8
0
93.2

11
12
13
14
15
20
AO

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

118.714554
122.660918
126.607282
130.553646
134.50001
154.23183
CONSUMO

-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1

66.6
84.9
88.6
78
96.8
105.2
93.2

R-squared
Adjusted RS.E. of regr
Sum squared
Log likeliho
Durbin-Wats

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/25/14 Time: 22:2
Sample: 1990 2000
Included observations: 11
Variable

12454.56
7796.89
13689
13271.04
101912.54

223.2
264.9
468
576
434.1 proyeccion

Se= 94.26807151

1997
1998
1999
2000

2
3
4
5

111.6
88.3
117
115.2
1045.4

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2010

6
7
8
9
10
15

118.714544
122.660908
126.607272
130.553636
134.5
154.23182

AO

C
X
R-squared
Adjusted RS.E. of regr
Sum squared
Log likeliho
Durbin-Wats

CONSUMO
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

66.6
84.9
88.6
78
96.8
105.2
93.2
111.6
88.3
117
115.2

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2010

118.715364
122.661728
126.608092
130.554456
134.50082
154.23264

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/25/14 Time: 22:4
Sample: 1990 2000
Included observations: 11
Variable
C
X
R-squared
Adjusted RS.E. of regr
Sum squared
Log likeliho
Durbin-Wats

proyeccion

EJERCICIO 1

7
X
AO

7
Y
CONSUMO

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
y PROMEDIO

4.8
5.6
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.5
9.1
9.8
10.4
11.9
82.00000000
8.20000000

X
AO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
55.00000000
5.50000000

x CUADR

XY

1.00
4.00
9.00
16.00
25.00
36.00
49.00
64.00
81.00
100.00
385.00

4.80
11.20
19.50
29.20
40.50
51.00
63.70
78.40
93.60
119.00
510.90

a=

4.20666667

b=

X
AO

0.7260606

a=

Y
CONSUMO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

4.8
5.6
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.5
9.1
9.8
10.4
11.9

EXTRAPOLACION EXPONENCIAL

Q n =Q 0 ( 1+ i )

i=

n1

Cn
1
C0

para el ejemplo anterior

i=

n1 115,2

66,6

1=0,056

Q2010 =115 ,2(1+0,056)10 =198 ,60

3. PRACTICA

poblacin CONSUMO
CONSUMO TOTAL EN EL AO 2000
POBLACION 2000
TASA HISTORICA DE CRECIMIENTO DE LA POBLA
TASA DE CREC EN EL PERIODO DE PROY.
TSA DE CREC DEL CONSUMO GLOBAL
RESOLUCION
DEMANDA POR HABIT 2000
TASA HIST DE CREC DEL CONS POR HABIT iq

170
38.500
2.2
2.6
5.8
4.42
360.00%

calculo del consumo por habitante 2001

calculo del consumo por habitante 2002
calculo del consumo por habitante 2003

4.5745454545
4.7392290909
4.9098413382

39.501
40.528
41.582

180.70
192.07
204.16

AO
CONS
Se= 18.593871003
demanda
Intervalos
6
263.54546 226.34546
7
289.13637 252.34546
8
9
10

300.74546
326.74546

2
153,147,891,704,226
Adjusted R-squ
S.E. of regress
Sum squared re
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson
Dependent Variable: CONS
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/25/14 Time: 22:26
Sample: 1990 2000
Included observations: 11
Coefficient
75.30455
3.946364
0.668788
0.631986
9.709154
848.409
-39.5084
2.957856

Std. Error
5.476701
0.925731

t-Statistic

Prob.

13.74998
4.262968

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0
0.0021
95.03636
16.00477
7.546981
7.619326
18.1729
0.002102

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/25/14 Time: 22:28
Sample: 1990 2000
Included observations: 11
Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

0.892189
0.017767
0.002525
27.23062
2.544027

###
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

95.03636
3.946364
0.668788
0.631986
9.709154
848.409
-39.5084
2.957856

2.92742
0.925731

32.46421
4.262968

0
0.0021

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

95.03636
16.00477
7.546981
7.619326
18.1729
0.002102

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/25/14 Time: 22:46
Sample: 1990 2000
Included observations: 11
Coefficient
-7777.959
3.946364
0.668788
0.631986
9.709154
848.409
-39.5084
2.957856

Std. Error
1846.837
0.925731

t-Statistic

Prob.

-4.211504
4.262968

0.0023
0.0021

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

Y CUADRADO

95.03636
16.00477
7.546981
7.619326
18.1729
0.002102

AO

CONS
0.2571
demanda
Intervalos
11 12.193333333
12 12.919393939
12.4154779394 12.919393939

Se=
23.04 proyeccin
31.36
42.25
53.29
65.61
72.25
82.81
96.04
108.16
141.61
716.42

4.2066666667
Dependent Variable: CONS
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/16/14 Time: 17:42
Sample: 2001 2010
Included observations: 10
Variable

CONSUMO

Coefficient

C
X

4.206667
0.726061

R-squared
Adjusted R-squar
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resi
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson st

0.987983
0.986481
0.25714
0.52897
0.507661
1.482912

Std. Error
0.17566
0.02831

t-Statistic
23.94773
25.64658

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

Prob.
0
0
8.2
2.211586
0.298468
0.358985
657.747
0

Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/19/06 Time: 15:39
Sample: 1987 1997
Included observations: 11
Variable
C
X

R-squared
S.D. dependent var
kaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion

Prob(F-statistic)

a=

Coefficient

Std. Error
110

5.606265

25.59091
0.958595
0.05411
-5.046124
-4.985607
75.47907
0.000024

t-Statistic

1.772857
Mean dependent var

19.62091
14.43484

( Y ) ( X
N (

Prob.
0
0

b=

N ( XY )

N ( X

110

a=YPRO
r2=

[ N ( XY

[ N X (
2

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13

4.9327272727
5.6587878788
6.3848484849
7.1109090909
7.836969697
8.563030303
9.2890909091
10.0151515152
10.7412121212
11.4672727273
12.1933333333
12.9193939394
13.6454545455

4.9327272727
5.6587878788
6.3848484849
7.1109090909
7.836969697
8.563030303
9.2890909091
10.0151515152
10.7412121212
11.4672727273
12.1933333333
12.9193939394
13.6454545455

4.93272727
5.65878788
6.38484848
7.11090909
7.8369697
8.5630303
9.28909091
10.0151515
10.7412121
11.4672727
12.1933333
12.9193939
13.6454545

14
15

14.3715151515
15.0975757576

14.3715151515
15.0975757576

EJERC HECTOR
aos
ao
x
1987
X
XY1988
2
1989
X
1990
1991
1992
X
Y 1993

( Y ) ( X 2 ) ( )(
a=
N ( X 2 ) ( )

b=

N ( XY ) (

) ( )
2
2
N ( X ) ( X )

0
1
2
3
4
5
6

10 ls y c x
20
30
45
70
90
125

1994

150

1995

180

-17.95455

1996

220

25.59091

a=YPROM bXPROM
2

r2=

[ N ( XY )( X )( Y ) ]
2

[ N X ( X ) ][ N Y ( Y ) ]
2

demanda
Y
Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/19/06 Time: 15:50
Sample: 1987 1997
Included observations: 11
Variable

Coefficient

2.- PRACTICA DIRIGIDA

demanda
Y

ao
Time: 15:50

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992

15
26
34
42
65
86

1993

98

10.48836

-1.711854

0.1211

1994

105

1.772857

14.43484

1995

120

AO
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

AO
Dependent Variable: CONS
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 10:37
Sample: 1987 1997
Included observations: 11
Variable
Coefficient
C
-30123.60
X
15.16364
R-squared
0.981315
Adjusted R0.979239
squared
S.E. of
7.315129
regression
Sum
4,816,000
squared
resid

CONSUMO
66.6
84.9
88.6
78
96.8
105.2
93.2
111.6
88.3
117
115.2

CONS
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

654,545,454,268
217,090,909,069
368,727,272,711
520,363,636,353
671,999,999,994
823,636,363,636
975,272,727,278
112,690,909,092
127,854,545,456

Std. Error
t-Statistic
1,389,362 -2,168,160
0.697470
2,174,091
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var

Prob.
0.0000
0.0000
8,236,364
5,076,864

1996

14,301,818,182

Akaike info criterion

6,980,732

1997

158,181,818,185

Schwarz criterion

7,053,077

1998

173,345,454,549

CONS
15
26
34
42
65
86
98
105
120
145

CONSF
CONSFSM
654,545,454,268 654,545,454,268
217,090,909,069 217,090,909,069
368,727,272,711
368,727,272,711
520,363,636,353 520,363,636,353
671,999,999,994 671,999,999,994
823,636,363,636 823,636,363,636
975,272,727,278 975,272,727,278
112,690,909,092
112,690,909,092
127,854,545,456 127,854,545,456
14,301,818,182

170 158,181,818,185

RESID
X
845,454,545,732
429,090,909,313
-287,272,727,106
-100,363,636,353
-219,999,999,944
363,636,363,636
0.472727272176
-769,090,909,202
-785,454,545,621

1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

19,818,181,796

1996

1996

158,181,818,185 118,181,818,154

1997

1997

14,301,818,182
173.345

XSM

1998

AO

CONS
7.315129
demanda
Intervalos
1998
173.345 159.007802 187.683107
1999
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
2000
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
Se=

EJERC HECTOR
aos

demanda

ao

demanda Y X

Aos X
1987

-5

10

1988

-4

20
1.4149733
1.4313638
1.4149733
1.4623980
1.4913617
1.4771213
1.5314789
1.5440680
1.5314789

AO

Y cuadrado

xy

-5 $b 100.00 -4
2.50515
2.50515
2.51851
2.53148
2.55630
2.56820
2.57978
2.60206
2.62325

AO

400 -

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
proyeccion

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

CONSUMO
66.6
84.9
88.6
78
96.8
105.2
93.2
111.6
88.3
117
115.2

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

11
12
13
14
15

118.714554
122.660918
126.607282
130.553646
134.50001

50.00
80.00

Y cuadrado XY
4435.56
7208.01
7849.96
6084
9370.24
11067.04
8686.24
12454.56
7796.89
13689
13271.04
101912.54

Se=

AO

AO

-333
1990
-339.6
1991
-265.8
1992
-156
1993
-96.8
1994
0
1995
93.2
1996
223.2
1997
264.9
1998
468
1999
576
2000
434.1 proyeccion

-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5

CONSUMO
66.6
84.9
88.6
78
96.8
105.2
93.2
111.6
88.3
117
115.2
1045.4

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

6
7
8
9
10

118.714544
122.660908
126.607272
130.553636
134.5

94.2680715111

AO
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
proyeccion
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

CONSUMO
66.6
84.9
88.6
78
96.8
105.2
93.2
111.6
88.3
117
115.2

118.715364
122.661728
126.608092
130.554456
134.50082

x cuadrado
$b

25.00

$b

16.00

xy

AO
-50

Se=

-80 proyeccin
1.4149733
2.50515
1.4313638
2.50515
1.4149733
2.51851
1.4623980
2.53148
1.4913617
2.55630
1.4771213
2.56820
1.5314789
2.57978
1.5440680
2.60206
1.5314789
2.62325

CONS

18.593871
demanda

Intervalos

Date: 10/19/07 Time: 15:45

2
Y ) (
XY
XYX)
XX))((
Y
(N
)(
(
)
(
)1999
a=YPROMbXPRO

1990
Sample:
a=
b=
2
2
(Included
NN(
( XX22))
XX) ) observations: 10
Variable

Coefficient

C
Y

-1.317305
1.094365

R-squared
Adjusted R-s
S.E. of regre
Sum squared
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson
Dependent Variable: CONS
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/25/06 Time: 22:26
Sample: 1990 2000
Included observations: 11
Variable

Coefficient

C
X
R-squared
Adjusted R-s
S.E. of regre
Sum squared
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson

###
###
0.668788
0.631986
9.709154
848.409
-39.5084
2.957856

Std. Error
5.476701
0.925731

t-Statistic
13.74998
4.262968

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

Prob.
0
0.0021
95.03636
16.00477
7.546981
7.619326
18.1729
0.002102

0.904168
0.892189
0.017767
0.002525
27.23062
2.544027

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/25/06 Time: 22:28
Sample: 1990 2000
Included observations: 11
Variable

Coefficient

C
X

Std. Error

95.036360
3.946364

R-squared
Adjusted R-s
S.E. of regre
Sum squared
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson

2.92742
0.925731

0.668788
0.631986
9.709154
848.409
-39.5084
2.957856

t-Statistic

Prob.

32.46421
4.262968

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0
0.0021
95.03636
16.00477
7.546981
7.619326
18.1729
0.002102

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/25/06 Time: 22:46
Sample: 1990 2000
Included observations: 11
Variable

Coefficient

C
X
R-squared
Adjusted R-s
S.E. of regre
Sum squared
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson

-7777.959
3.946364
0.668788
0.631986
9.709154
848.409
-39.5084
2.957856

Std. Error
1846.837
0.925731

t-Statistic
-4.211504
4.262968

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

Prob.
0.0023
0.0021
95.03636
16.00477
7.546981
7.619326
18.1729
0.002102

Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Time: 15:45

Date: 04/29/07 Time: 11:31

Sample: 1990 1999
Included observations: 10

=YPROMbXPROM
Std. Error
0.320844
0.125965

t-Statistic
-4.105753
8.687869

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

Prob.

Variable
0.0034 C
0 LOGY

1.469716
0.05411
-5.046124
-4.985607
75.47907
0.000024

Coefficient

Std. Error

-1,330,041 0.324328
1,099,293 0.127348

R-squared 0.903048
Adjusted R-s 0.890929
S.E. of regre 0.017950
Sum squared 0.002578
Log likelihood 2,712,780
Durbin-Watson 2,539,184

t-Statistic

Prob.

-4,100,915 0.0034
8,632,223 0.0000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

1,469,200
0.054352
-5,025,560
-4,965,043
7,451,528
0.000025

EJERC HECTOR
ao

aos

demanda

III PROYECCION DE LA DEMANDA CONSIDERANDO LOS EFECTOS DEL CRECIMIENTO DE LA POBLACION Y LA INFL
DEL CONSUMO POR HABITANTE DE LOS CAMBIOS EN LOS INGRESOS EN LOS PRECIOS O AMBOS SIMULTANEAM
REGRESION MULTIPLE
DEMANDA INGRESO
PRECIO
64
57
8
71
59
10
53
49
6
67
62
11
55
51
8
58
50
7
77

55

10

57

48

56

52

10

Dependent Variable: DEM

Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/02/08 Time: 11:30
Sample: 1 12
Included observations: 12
Variable

51
42
6
76
61
12
68
57
9
753
643
106
62.75 53.5833333 8.83333333

Coefficient

Std. Error

3,651,216

1,616,781

ING
PREC

0.854610
1,506,332

0.451664
1,414,266

R-squared
Adjusted R-s
S.E. of regre
Sum squared
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson

0.708554
0.643789
5,363,215
2,588,766
-3,545,593
1,770,908

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

METODO PRESUPUESTO DEL CONSUMIDOR

INGRESO
ESTRATOS FAMILIAR
ESTRATO 1

1000
1500
1700
2000

ESTRATOII

2500

CONSUMO NUMERO
TOTAL
FAMILIAS

CE 1,t =CE 1,0

3000
3500
3600
4000
14100
5000

Y 1,t
Y 1,0

E1

( )

FR

CONSUMO CONSUMO
FAMILIAR
PONDERADO

300 0.25210084
10 2.5210084034
280 0.23529412
12.5 2.9411764706
300 0.25210084
12 3.025210084
310 0.2605042 12.9032258 3.3613445378
1190
1
11.848739496
250
20

tasa de crecimiento el ingreso 0,025

1

Y 1=1554 , 9(1+0, 025 ) =1593 ,77

1593 , 77
CE 1,1 =11, 85
1554 , 62

0,736

CE1,1 =12,067

Metodo Series de Tiempo

AO

Invierno

Primavera

1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997

Ao

Estacin
1987 Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo
1988
Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo
1989

2
5
7
10
13
19
27
26
38
44
51

Promediol
movil

Demanda

Verano
3
6
10
17
20
34
39
44
51
67
79

4
7
10
16
28
34
48
58
70
81
107

promedio M. Indice
centrado
Estacional

2
3
4
1

2.5
3.25

2.88
3.63

1.39
0.28

5
6
7
2

4
4.75
5
5.5

4.38
4.88
5.25
2.75

1.14
1.23
1.33
0.73

Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo

7
10
10
3

7.25
7.5
8.25

3.63
7.38
7.88
9.13

1.93
1.36
1.27
0.33

Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo

10
17
16
2

10
11.5
11.25
12

10.75
11.38
11.63
12.38

0.93
1.49
1.38
0.16

Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo

13
20
28
9

12.75
15.75
17.5
19

14.25
16.63
18.25
20.75

0.91
1.20
1.53
0.43

Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo

19
34
34
3

22.5
24
22.5
24.5

23.25
23.25
23.50
25.13

0.82
1.46
1.45
0.12

Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo

27
39
48
11

25.75
29.25
31.25
31

27.50
30.25
31.13
31.63

0.98
1.29
1.54
0.35

Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo

26
44
58
22

32.25
34.75
37.50
40.50

33.50
36.13
39.00
41.38

0.78
1.22
1.49
0.53

Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo

38
51
70
21

42.25
45.25
45
46.5

43.75
45.13
45.75
48.50

0.87
1.13
1.53
0.43

Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo

44
67
81
28

50.5
53.25
55
56.75

51.88
54.13
55.88
58.25

0.85
1.24
1.45
0.48

Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo

51
79
107
33

59.75
66.25
67.5

63.00
66.88

0.81
1.18

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

A POBLACION Y LA INFLUENCIA
O AMBOS SIMULTANEAMENTE.

datos

t-Statistic

Prob.

INGRESO
1
2
3
4
5

57
59
49
62
51

50

55

0.225832

0.8264

48

1,892,136
1,065,098

0.0910
0.3146

9
10
11
12

52
42
61
57

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion

Prob(F-statistic)

6,275,000
8,986,100
6,409,322
6,530,549
1,094,027
0.003895

ESTRATOS
INGRESO
PONDERADO ELASTICIDAD FRXELAST
252.10084034
352.94117647
428.57142857
521.00840336
1554.6218487

0.500 0.1260504202
-0.300 -0.0705882353
0.427 0.1075268817
2.200 0.5731092437
0.7360983103

ESTRATO 1

ESTRATOII

METODO PRESUPUESTO
ESTRATOS
ESTRATO 1

ESTRATOII

Otoo

TOTAL
1
2
3
2
9
3
11
22
21
28
33

10
20
30
45
70
90
125
150
180
220
270

Invierno
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

Primavera
1.14
1.02
0.93
0.91
0.82
0.98
0.78
0.87

Verano
1.23
1.36
1.49
1.20
1.46
1.29
1.22
1.13

Otoo
1.39
1.33
1.27
1.38
1.53
1.45
1.54
1.49
1.53

0.28
0.33
0.33
0.16
0.43
0.12
0.35
0.53
0.43

1996
1997
TOTAL
PROMEDIO

0.85
0.81
9.10498
0.91050

1.24
1.18
12.80321
1.28032

1.45
14.3609
1.43609

0.48
SUMA DE
3.4459 PROMEDIOS
0.34459
3.97151

COMO SUMA DEBE SER 4, ENTONCES LA SUMA 3,97151 DEBE AJUSTARSE.

SUMA DE
FRECUENCIA NUEVOS
PROMEDIOS RELATIVA
VALORES
0.91050 0.2292575802 0.9170303209
1.2803206923 0.3223764968 1.2895059873
1.4360945359 0.3615993465 1.4463973859
0.3445941139 0.0867665765
0.347066306
3.97151
1
4
Proyectando para el ao 1998
La demanda global proyectada es de 263,540 unidades entonces:
263,540/4 =
65.885
Estacin
Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo

Deman/estacin FR
Deman X FR
65.885 0.9170303209
60.419
65.885 1.2895059873
84.959
65.885 1.4463973859
95.296
65.885
0.347066306
22.866
263.540

4. PRACTICA

5.- PRACTICA DIRIGIDA.

1995

110

220

4.009

1996

118

240

4.113

1997

121

250

4.220

1998

127

255

4.330

1999

134

262

4.442

2000

140

265

4.558

DEMANDA
129
139
109
138
114
119
146
125
119

2001

147

280

4.676

105

2002

154

285

4.798

147

2003

162

290

4.923

128

2004

169

300

5.051

INGRESOS
AOS

CANTIDAD

POR PERSONA DEMANDADA

Poblacin

POR PERSONA
Precios ctes. (x) Unidades (y)

N Hab (z)

PROYECCION EN BASE AL PRESUPUESTO DEL CONSUMIDOR

INGRESO
FAMILIAR
6
8
10
12
14

CONSUMO NUMERO
TOTAL
FAMILIAS
85
110
106
100
401
115

150
132
124
110
516
92

FR

0.29069767
0.25581395
0.24031008
0.21317829
1

CONSUMO CONSUMO INGRESO

FAMILIAR PONDERADOPONDERADOELASTICIDA
0.5666667
0.8333333
0.8548387
0.9090909

0.16472868
0.21317829
0.20542636
0.19379845
0.77713178

1.74418605 1.41176471
2.04651163 0.10322581
2.40310078 0.31732419
2.55813953
2.25
8.75193798

1.25

METODO PRESUPUESTO DEL CONSUMIDOR

INGRESO
CONSUMO NUMERO
FR
CONSUMO CONSUMO INGRESO
FAMILIAR TOTAL
FAMILIAS
FAMILIAR
PONDERADOPONDERADO
SEGMENTO
1
20
37.5
75 0.2697842
0.5000
0.1349
5.3957
2
30
49.5
76 0.2733813
0.6513
0.1781
8.2014
3
40
49.6
72 0.2589928
0.6889
0.1784
10.3597
4
50
49.5
55 0.1978417
0.9000
0.1781
9.8921
186.1
278
1
0.6694
33.8489
55
46
46
1.0000

cons en el ao 1

C 1,1 =C 1,0

[ ]
Y 1,1
Y 1,0

INGRESO
PRECIO
117
20
115
20
98
15
146
22
125
18
114
15
128
20
98
19
118
23
94

18

126

24

128

19

FRXELAST
0.41039672
0.0264066
0.0762562
0.47965116
0.99271068

ELASTICIDA FRXELAST
0.60526316
0.17306397
1.22580645
1.11111111

0.16329042
0.04731245
0.31747505
0.21982414
0.74790207

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 12:29
Sample: 1995 2004
Included observations: 10
Variable
Coefficient
C
95.1954
ING
1.22652
R-squared
0.961241
Adjusted R0.956396
squared
S.E. of
5.142370
regression
Sum
2,115,517
squared
Log
-2,944,881
resid
likelihood
Durbin1,181,650
Watson stat

Std. Error
1,214,332
0.087076
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

CONS
220
240
250
255
262
265
280
285
290

CONSF
230,112,226,173
239,924,360,592
243,603,910,999
250,963,011,813
25,954,862,943
266,907,730,244
275,493,347,861
284,078,965,478
293,891,099,897

300

302,476,717,513

AOS

CONSFSM

2003

230
237
247
252
258
266
274
283
292

2004

302

6,350,279

2005

311

F-statistic

1,984,025

2006

320

Prob(F-statistic)

0.000001

2007

329

t-Statistic
7,839,321
1,408,554
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion

Prob.
0.0001
0.0000
2,647,000
2,462,632
6,289,762

Schwarz criterion

1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002

ING

INGSM

computadora

respuesta 4
lineal
exponencial
i= 1,0488697 i=1,026003955

110
118
121
127
134
140
147
154
162

110.0000
116.0000
123.9312
127.6720
132.7571
139.4993
145.8798
153.0015
160.3257

1995

169

168.5876

2004

176.1092

2005

167.385

177.259

5182

1,612,619

183.3504

2006

173.870

185.922

5317

1,701,853

190.5916

2007

180.355

195.008

5455

1,794,472

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003

proy pobla

Dependent Variable: ING

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 12:52
Sample: 1995 2004
Included observations: 10
Variable
C
X
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

Coefficient

Std. Error

-12828.25000
3,320,916
6.48485 0.166087
0.994780
0.994127
1,508,561
1,820,606
-1,718,523
1,003,359

t-Statistic

Prob.

-3,862,866 0.0000
3,904,485 0.0000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

1,382,000
1,968,530
3,837,047
3,897,564
1,524,501
0.000000

respuesta 5
DEMAN
Dependent Variable: DEMAN
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 13:52
Sample: 2001 2012
Included observations: 12
Variable
C
ING
PREC

Coefficient
39.72687000
0.390906
2,108,466

Std. Error
2,671,200
0.246639
1,336,169

1,487,229 0.1711

129
139
109
138
114
119
146
125
119

1,584,932 0.1474

105

1,577,993 0.1490

147

t-Statistic

Prob.

128
R-squared 0.545200
Adjusted R-s 0.444133
S.E. of regre
1,039,181
Sum squared
9,719,083
Log likelihood -4,339,339
Durbin-Watson 1,718,619

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

Dependent Variable: DEMAN

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 13:52
Sample: 2001 2012
Included observations: 12
Variable
Coefficient
C
39.72687
ING
0.390906
PREC
2.108466
R-squared
0.545200
Adjusted R-squared
0.444133

1,265,000
1,393,818
7,732,232
7,853,459
5,394,452
0.028853

Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
26.71200
1.487229
0.1711
0.246639
1.584932
0.1474
1.336169
1.577993
0.1490
Mean dependent var
126.5000
S.D. dependent var
13.93818

Prob.
0.1711
0.1474
0.1490
126.5000
13.93818

AOS

DEMANF
127,632,211,815
126,850,399,342
109,662,664,402
14,318,542,424
126,542,530,139
115,917,164,186
131,932,180,416
118,096,527,538
134,348,515,403

DEMANFSM
ING
127,632,211,815
128,348,873,248
128,975,678,694
128,489,307,232
129,463,240,877
129,821,407,774
129,433,376,914
12,961,207,079
129,025,314,739

INGSM

PREC

117
115
98
146
125
114
128
98
118

117
118,833,333,333
120,151,485,068
118,799,231,041
12,287,463,784
125,059,757,599
12,558,848,068
12,732,602,569
124,929,384,132

20
20
15
22
18
15
20
19
23

129,103,029,191

94

123,947,402,034

18

139,584,231,079

128,140,938,987

126

11,949,494,894

24

129,823,714,632

128,305,146,689

128

118,312,385,909

19

114,424,436,808

1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

128,217,316,813
128,083,956,473
127,950,596,134

117,911,420,149
1,167,354,937
115,559,567,251

exponencial
PRECSM
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20

DEMANDA
129
139
109
138
114
119
146
125
119

logdeman
INGRESO
loging
PRECIO
2.11058971
117 2.06818586
20
2.14301480
115 2.06069784
20
2.03742650
98 1.99122608
15
2.13987909
146 2.16435286
22
2.05690485
125 2.09691001
18
2.07554696
114 2.05690485
15
2.16435286
128 2.10720997
20
2.09691001
98 1.99122608
19
2.07554696
118 2.07188201
23

20

105 2.02118930

94 1.97312785

18

20

147 2.16731733

126 2.10037055

24

20

128 2.10720997

128 2.10720997

19

20
20
20

logprec
1.30103000
1.30103000
1.17609126
1.34242268
1.25527251
1.17609126
1.30103000
1.27875360
1.36172784

logdeman
2.11058971
2.14301480
2.03742650
2.13987909
2.05690485
2.07554696
2.16435286
2.09691001
2.07554696

loging
2.06818586
2.06069784
1.99122608
2.16435286
2.09691001
2.05690485
2.10720997
1.99122608
2.07188201

logprec
1.30103000
1.30103000
1.17609126
1.34242268
1.25527251
1.17609126
1.30103000
1.27875360
1.36172784

1.25527251

2.02118930 1.97312785 1.25527251

1.38021124

2.16731733 2.10037055 1.38021124

1.27875360

2.10720997 2.10720997 1.27875360

Dependent Variable: LOGDE

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 14:20
Sample(adjusted): 1 12
Included observations: 12 aft
Variable
C
LOGING
LOGPREC
R-squared
Adjusted R-s
S.E. of regre
Sum squared
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson

Depende
Method:
Date: 03
Sample(
Included
V

LO
LO
R-square
Adjusted

Dependent Variable: LOGDEM

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 14:20
Sample(adjusted): 1 12
ncluded observations: 12 after adjusting endpoints
Coefficient

Std. Error

0.914896
0.382680

0.387791
0.222004

2,359,247 0.0427
1,723,756 0.1188

LOGDEM
LOGDEMF
211,058,971
210,581,671,934
21,430,148
210,295,120,122
20,374,265
203,800,466,746
213,987,909
215,532,710,464
205,690,485
210,275,955,672

0.307039

0.197178

1,557,165 0.1539

207,554,696

206,313,864,228

216,435,286

212,075,047,949

2,099,657

209,691,001

206,952,600,178

0.048115
-3,644,245
-3,523,019
5,786,793
0.024221

207,554,696
20,211,893
216,731,733
210,720,997

212,586,776,276
205,539,055,617
21,424,448,905
211,391,075,763

t-Statistic

0.562546

Mean dependent var

0.465334
0.035182
0.011140
2,486,547
1,746,683

S.D. dependent var

Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

Prob.

Dependent Variable: LOGDEM

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 14:20
Sample(adjusted): 1 12
Included observations: 12 after adjusting endpoints
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
0.914896
0.387791
2.359247
0.0427
LOGING
0.382680
0.222004
1.723756
0.1188
LOGPREC
0.307039
0.197178
1.557165
0.1539
R-squared
0.562546 Mean dependent var
2.099657
Adjusted R-squared
0.465334 S.D. dependent var
0.048115

LOGDEMSM
210,581,671,934
210,830,567,937
211,039,424,411
210,728,378,539
21,106,603,903

LOGING
LOGINGSM
206,818,586
206,818,586
206,069,784 207,468,987,833
199,122,608
20,794,016,278
216,435,286 207,379,812,839
209,691,001 208,596,559,716

LOGPREC LOGPRESM
130,103
130,103
130,103
130,103
117,609,126
130,103
134,242,268
130,103
125,527,251
130,103

211,152,517,734 205,690,485

209,319,680,615 117,609,126

130,103

210,908,764,794 210,720,997

209,501,327,728

130,103

130,103

210,945,697,324 199,122,608

210,093,221,252

12,787,536

130,103

210,637,401,611
210,634,539,539
210,172,703,418
210,219,088,775
210,190,302,213
210,114,653,751
21,003,900,529

20,919,449,874 136,172,784
208,806,646,087 125,527,251
207,086,947,007 138,021,124
206,549,617,377 12,787,536
206,340,122,878
205,838,663,092
205,337,203,305

130,103
130,103
130,103
130,103
130,103
130,103
130,103

207,188,201
197,312,785
210,037,055
210,720,997

LOGDEMSM
2.1058167193
2.1083056794
2.1103942441
2.1072837854
2.1106603903
2.1115251773
2.1090876479
2.1094569732
2.1063740161
2.1063453954
2.1017270342
2.1021908878
2.1019030221
2.1011465375
2.1003900529

126.44540
126.22534
126.00566

AOS

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
van 11%
van 25%
VAN Mrg 11%
TIR Mrg

A
B
MOLIENDA MOLIENDA DIFERENC
A MANO
GRANDE
IAL
36,750
36,750
36,750
36,750
36,750
36,750
36,750
$192,222.27
$145,214.83

90,500
17,195
17,195
19,457
19,457
22,172
22,172
$172,002.62
$146,269.95

-53,750
19,555
19,555
17,293
17,293
14,578
14,578
VAN Mrg.
$20,219.65
($1,055.12)

$20,219.65
24.0893%

Se tienen dos proyectos alternativos

Una pequea irrigacin y una gran irrigacin
con los sgtes flujos de fondos

AOS

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

A
B
MOLIENDA MOLIENDA DIFERENC
A MANO
GRANDE
IAL
-10,500
1,260
1,680
1,680
2,310
2,310
3,360
3,360
3,360

van 11%
van 25%

($2,084.00)
($4,972.72)

VAN Mrg 11%

TIR Mrg

($3,490.86)
-3.4366%

-2,200
540
720
720
990
990
1,440
1,440
1,440
$1,406.86
$168.83

-8,300
720
960
960
1,320
1,320
1,920
1,920
1,920
VAN Mrg.
($3,490.86)
($5,141.55)

1. Se tiene dos proyectos Alternativos, una gran empresa textil y una pequea empresa textil con los
AO

GRAN
EMPRESA
TEXTIL
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

-45000
6300
8100
8100
11700
11700
15300
15300
15300

PEQUEA
EMPRESA
TEXTIL
-8000
1085
1395
1395
2015
2015
2635
2635
2635

Si el costo de capital es 12,5% se pide calcular el VAN,TIR,

TIR Mg,VANMg, B/C Mg.De acuerdo a ello decidir cul de los proyectos se debera ejecutar.

ea empresa textil con los sgtes flujos.

se debera ejecutar.

AOS
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

CANTIDAD
INGRESO
DEMAN/PERS POR PERS.
220
110
240
116
250
121
255
127
262
134
265
140
280
147
285
154
290
162
300
169

CONS POT 97
CONS 2000
CONS 2001
CONS 2002
CONS 2003
CONS TOT 2000
CONS TOT 2001
CONS TOT 2002
CONS TOT 2003

Y=97.53147+1.211366X
PROYECCION
284.081834
312.4883667
323.236211535
334.5214486118
346.3709475423
318738134.034
336294954.481
354996837.4384
374923052.9095

Dependent Variable: DEMAN

Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/27/06 Time: 12:50
Sample: 1990 1999
Included observations: 10
Variable

Coefficient

C
INGRES

97.5314700
1.211366000

R-squared
Adjusted R-s
S.E. of regre
Sum squared
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson

AOS
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

0.960331
0.955372
5.202386
216.5185
-29.56484
1.30307

Std. Error
12.12442
0.087046

t-Statistic

Prob.

8.044214
13.91646

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0
0
264.7
24.62632
6.312968
6.373485
193.6677
0.000001

POBLACION TOTAL
POBLACION MILLONES
POBLACION
ESTRATO A
ESTRATO B ESTRATO C
TOTAL
0.10
1
2
3.10
0.11
1.1
2.24
3.45
0.12
1.21
2.51
3.84
0.14
1.33
2.81
4.28
0.14
1.46
3.15
4.75
0.15
1.61
3.52
5.28
0.16
1.77
3.95
5.88
0.48
1.95
4.12
6.55
0.20
2.14
4.95
7.29
0.25
2.36
5.55
8.16

1. ANALISIS DE CORRELACION Y REGRESION LINEAL DE LA TENDENCIA HISTORICA DE

AOS

TOTAL

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

4.8
5.6
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.5
9.1
9.8
10.4
11.9

Date: 03/17/08 Time: 21:55

Sample: 2001 2010
Included observations: 10
Variable

Coefficient

C
X

4,206,667
0.726061

R-squared
0.987983
Adjusted R-squar 0.986481
S.E. of regression 0.257140
Sum squared resi 0.528970
Log likelihood
0.507661
Durbin-Watson sta
1,482,912

2. ANALISIS DE CORRELACION Y REGRESION LINEAL DE LA SERIE HISTORICA DEL CO

POBLACION CONSUMO
TOTAL
TOTAL
3.1
4.8
3.45
5.6
3.84
6.5
4.28
7.3
4.75
8.1
5.28
8.5
5.88
9.1
6.55
9.8
7.29
10.4
8.16
11.9

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/17/08 Time: 22:10
Sample: 2001 2010
Included observations: 10
Variable
C
POB

Coefficient
1,418,667
1,289,717

R-squared
0.973323
Adjusted R-squar 0.969989
S.E. of regression 0.383129
Sum squared resi
1,174,305
Log likelihood
-3,479,841
Durbin-Watson sta0.661466

3.- VERIFICACION DE LA CORRELACION DOBLE LOGARITMICA CON LOS DATOS CONOCIDOS

POBLACION LOG P
CONSUMO LOG C
TOTAL
TOTAL
3.1
0.49136169
4.8
0.68124124
3.45
0.53781910
5.6
0.74818803
3.84
0.58433122
6.5
0.81291336
4.28
0.63144377
7.3
0.86332286
4.75
0.67669361
8.1
0.90848502
5.28
0.72263392
8.5
0.92941893
5.88
0.76937733
9.1
0.95904139
6.55
0.81624130
9.8
0.99122608
7.29
0.86272753
10.4
1.01703334
8.16
0.91169016
11.9
1.07554696

LOG P
0.49136169
0.5378191
0.58433122
0.63144377
0.67669361
0.72263392
0.76937733
0.8162413
0.86272753
0.91169016

LOG C
Dependent Variable: LOGC
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/17/08 Time: 22:22
Sample: 2001 2010
Included observations: 10

0.6812412374
0.748188027
0.8129133566
0.8633228601
0.9084850189
0.9294189257
0.9590413923
0.9912260757
1.0170333393
1.0755469614

Variable
C
LOGP
R-squared
Adjusted R-square
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resi
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson sta

Q=1,9666 P0,864

4. PROYECCION Y EXTRAPOLACION DE LA TENDENCIA HISTORICA

r= 0,1131

Pt =Po (1+0,113)
0.11353318
0.11111111

PROYECION DE LA POBLACION TOTAL Y CONSUMO APARENTE

AO
POBL TOT
Q=4,21+0.726t
11
9.06
12.19
12
10.05
12.92
13
11.16
13.65
14
12.39
14.37
15
13.75
15.10
16
15.26
15.82
17
16.94
16.55
18
18.81
17.28
19
20.87
18.00
20
23.17
18.73

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/17/08 Time: 22:58
Sample: 2001 2010
Included observations: 10
Variable

Coefficient

C
X

4,206,667 0.175660
0.726061
0.028310

R-squared 0.987983
Adjusted R-s 0.986481
S.E. of regre 0.257140
Sum squared 0.528970
Log likelihood0.507661

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

2,394,773 0.0000
2,564,658 0.0000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic

8,200,000
2,211,586
0.298468
0.358985
6,577,470

Durbin-Watson

1,482,912

Prob(F-statistic)

0.000000

53147+1.211366X

PROYECCION ING
2000
2001
2002
2003

INGRESO FAMILIAR
A
B
30
34.5
39.7
45.6
52.5
60.3
69.4
79.9
91.3
105.5

177.45
186.32
195.64
205.42

CONSUMO APARENTE
A
B

C
14
15.7
17.6
19.7
22
24.7
27.6
30.9
34.7
38.8

PROY POBLAC
1020000
1040400
1061208
1082432

3.5
3.9
4.2
4.7
5.1
5.6
6.2
6.8
7.5
8.3

AL DE LA TENDENCIA HISTORICA DEL CONSUMO APARENTE

0.95

4.4

1.15

9.2

Std. Error

t-Statistic

0.175660
0.028310

Prob.

2,394,773 0.0000
2,564,658 0.0000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

8,200,000
2,211,586
0.298468
0.358985
6,577,470
0.000000

EAL DE LA SERIE HISTORICA DEL CONSUMO APARENTE Y LA POBLACION TOTAL

Std. Error

t-Statistic

0.415003
0.075489

3,418,453 0.0091
1,708,473 0.0000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

CON LOS DATOS CONOCIDOS

Prob.

8,200,000
2,211,586
1,095,968
1,156,485
2,918,881
0.000000

ndent Variable: LOGC

od: Least Squares
03/17/08 Time: 22:22
le: 2001 2010
ed observations: 10
Coefficient

Std. Error

0.293726
0.863632

0.037130
0.052071

0.971739
0.968207
0.022005
0.003874
2,509,122
0.634654

t-Statistic

Prob.
7,910,677 0.0000
1,658,554 0.0000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0,864
TAL Y CONSUMO APARENTE
Q=1,9666 P
Q=1.418667+1,2897 exponencial
13.08
13.17
14.40
14.45
15.87
15.85
17.50
17.38
19.82
19.06
21.34
20.91
23.59
22.94
26.09
25.16
28.88
27.60
31.99
30.27

RESULTADOS PROY Eviews

0.898642
0.123411
-4,618,244
-4,557,727
2,750,800
0.000000

obs
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

CONSF
5.41679027702
5.86819129789
6.37118100687
6.93865657596
7.54482366113
8.22837377845
9.00220409995
9.86631462562
10.8207053555
11.9427593216

CONSFSM
5.41679027702
5.97910697731
6.31959231877
6.87417071584
7.50613214506
8.15099074631
8.91192389578
9.77603442145
10.7304251513
11.7750960853
13.0648132878
14.186867254
15.3089212201

POBLA
3.1
3.45
3.84
4.28
4.75
5.28
5.88
6.55
7.29
8.16

POBLASM
3.1
3.536
3.8
4.23
4.72
5.22
5.81
6.48
7.22
8.03
9.03
9.9
10.77

TOTAL

1.15

2.55

4.8
5.6
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.5
9.1
9.8
10.4
11.9

POBLA
3.1
3.45
3.84
4.28
4.75
5.28
5.88
6.55
7.29
8.16

POBLASM
3.1
3.536
3.8
4.23
4.72
5.22
5.81
6.48
7.22
8.03
9.03
9.9
10.77