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Cut set method: concept

Minimal cut sets in the following systems

Minimal cut set #

Components of the cut set

AB

CD

AED

BEC

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Application of cut sets

Most, but not all, of the methods for deducing cuts are based on a
knowledge of the minimal paths between input and output.
A minimal path can be defined as:
A path between the input and output is minimal if, in that path, no node or
intersection between branches is traversed more than once.

Minimal paths
AC, BD, AED, BEC

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Application of cut sets

All components of each cut must fail in order for the system to fail.
Consequently, the components of the cut set are effectively connected in parallel
The failure probabilities of the components in the cut set may be combined using the
principle of parallel systems

In addition, the system fails if anyone of the cut sets occurs and consequently each
cut is effectively in series with all the other cuts.

Minimal cut set #

Components of
the cut set

AB

CD

AED

BEC

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Application of cut sets

Although these cut sets are in series, the concept of series systems cannot
be used because the same component can appear in two or more of the cut
sets, e.g., component A appears in cuts C1 and C3.
The concept of union does apply however and if the ith cut is designated
as and its probability of occurrence is designated as P( ).
The unreliability of the system is given by
= (1 2 3 )

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Example 1
Consider the following power distribution system. Components A, B, C, D,
and E indicate distribution lines. The system success requires that at least
one of the paths, AC, BD, AED, BEC is good. Determine the power
distribution system unreliability if the reliability of A=B=C=D=E=0.99?

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Example 1
= 1 2 3 4
= 1 + 2 + 3 + 4
1 2 1 3 1 C4 P C2 3 2 4 3 4
+ 1 2 3 + 1 2 4 + 1 3 4 + 2 3 4
1 2 3 4

1 =
4 =
2 4 = 2 4 =

1 2 4 = 1 . 2 . 4 =
1 2 3 4 = 1 . 2 . 3 . 4 =
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Example 1
= + + +
+ 2
If = = = = = , then

= 22 + 23 54 + 25
Given that = 0.99 = 1 = 0.01

= 0.00020195
= 1 = 0.99979805 (similar to Example 1)

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Approximate evaluation
The precise evaluation is always theoretically possible, but it can be an
exhaustive and time-consuming exercise which can become prohibitive
with large systems.
The first approximation assumes that can be reduced to a summation of
unreliabilities:

= 1 + 2 + + + = ( )
=1

Note: the reliability of a component, i.e., , is itself an approximation not an

exact value.
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Classroom activity 1

Consider the following power distribution system. Components A, B, C, D, and E

indicate distribution lines. The system success requires that at least one of the paths,
AC, BD, AED, BEC is good. Use the firs approximation, and then determine the
power distribution system unreliability?

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Classroom activity 1

Solution:
= + + +

If = = = = =
= 2 2 + 2 3 = 0.000202
= 0.999798
Compared with the precise value:
Error of = +0.02%
Error of = 5 106 %

When this approximation is made, the value of is always greater than the exact
value and exhibits the greatest positive error.
the upper bound of system unreliability

If the second order terms are also included in the analysis, the value of will be less
than the exact value and will exhibit the greatest negative error.
the lower bound of system unreliability

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Approximate evaluation
The second approximation is to neglect cut sets of an order greater than a
certain value
the order of a cut set being equal to the number of components comprising that
cut set, i.e., a cut set created by two components is known as a cut set of order
2 or a second order cut set

This approximation assumes that high order cut sets are much less probable
than low order cut sets.
This is valid if all components have reliabilities of similar value but can be
invalid if a low order cut set involves components having very high
reliabilities while a high order cut set involves components having very low
reliabilities.

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Example 2
Reconsider the following system which was discussed in the previous
classroom activity. If we neglect the third order (and up) cut sets (i.e., the
first and the second approximations):
= +
If = = = =
= 2 2
= 0.000200
= 0.9998000
Error of = 1%
Error of = +2 104 %
These are small and would decrease as component reliabilities increased.
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Classroom activity 2
Consider the following power system where components A, B, C, D, E, and
F indicate the distribution feeders. Evaluate the reliability of the system
using
a) conditional probability and
b) cut set methods
if each component has a reliability of 0.99. Assume that source and load are
100% reliable.

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Classroom activity 2
Conditional probability method:

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Classroom activity 2

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Classroom activity 2
Cut set method:
The minimal cut sets are AB, AD, CE, AE, BFC, DFC
1) Consider first the result that will be obtained if only second order events are used
and the evaluation is reduced to one of summating the cut probabilities
= + + + = 0.0004000
= 0.999600
2) Consider now the result that will be obtained if all of the cuts are used and the
evaluation is again limited to one of summating the cut probabilities
= + + + + + = 0.000402
= 0.999598
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