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MEDIA RELEASE
(April 30, 2010)
In keeping with our academic nature, Pulse Asia disseminates to the public some
findings from its April 2010 Pre-Election national survey.
The survey fieldwork was conducted from April 23 to 25, 2010 using face-to-face
interviews. Key developments in April 2010 include the following: (1) defections from
the Lakas-Kampi Christian Muslim Democrats (CMD) mostly to the Nacionalista Party
(NP) and the Liberal Party (LP); (2) election-related issues such as the purchase of
ultraviolet lamps (UV) because the UV readers of the Precinct Count Optical Scan
(PCOS) machines were unable to read the UV markings on the ballots, the scrapping of
the P 700 million contract for the purchase of ballot secrecy folders, and the re-bidding of
the contract for the purchase of indelible ink; (3) completion of the printing of ballots for
the May 2010 elections; (4) various incidents of election-related violence across the
country; (5) Senator Francis G. Escudero’s endorsement of Senator Benigno Simeon C.
Aquino III for president and Makati City Mayor Jejomar C. Binay for vice-president; (6)
accusations made by former President Joseph E. Estrada and Senate President Juan Ponce
Enrile against Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. that while serving as Senate President in
2007, Senator Villar used his position to pressure the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) to
decide in his favor on a matter concerning the public offering of his real estate company’s
shares; (7) Senator Richard J. Gordon’s filing of charges against two survey groups; (8)
petitions from various sectors for a parallel manual count of votes; (9) the Supreme
Court’s final ruling allowing President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to appoint the next
chief justice (but not the next Sandiganbayan Justice); (10) calls for the resignation and
disbarment of Department of Justice (DOJ) Acting Secretary Alberto Agra following his
decision to clear two key suspects in the Maguindanao massacre; and (11) increase in
power rates despite rotating brownouts in Metro Manila and other parts of the country.
For the electoral preference module, Pulse Asia made use of a sample ballot,
measuring 8.5” x 26”, that is a facsimile of the COMELEC official ballot. Respondents
were asked to indicate their preference on the ballot based on the instructions written
therein.
Pulse Asia’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and
conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In
keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group
influenced any of these processes. Pulse Asia undertakes pre-election surveys on its own
without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.
For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse
Asia President at 09189335497 / 9945602 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia Chief
Research Fellow at 09189436816.
2
Pulse Asia’s April 2010 Pre-Election Survey:
Media Release on Filipinos’ Senatorial and Party-List Preferences
30 April 2010
Senators Ramon B. Revilla, Jr. and Jinggoy E. Estrada maintain their lead in the
senatorial race; only 37% of Filipino registered voters have a complete senatorial
line-up for the May 2010 elections
Two incumbent lawmakers – Senators Revilla and Estrada – continue to lead the
senatorial race with 52.8% and 50.0% of Filipino registered voters favoring their re-
election. These overall voter preferences translate to statistical rankings of 1st to 2nd
places for Senator Revilla and 1st to 3rd places for Senator Estrada. Meanwhile, Senator
Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago lands in 2nd to 3rd places with 47.9% of registered voters
supporting her re-election. Three candidates share 4th to 6th places – incumbent Senate
President Juan Ponce Enrile (40.6%), former Senate President Franklin M. Drilon
(38.4%), and Senator Pilar Juliana S. Cayetano (38.1%). Ranked 7th to 9th are former
Dangerous Drugs Board (DDB) Chairperson Vicente C. Sotto III (32.3%) and former
Senator Sergio R. Osmeña (32.2%). With 30.1% of registered voters backing his
candidacy, former National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Director
General Ralph G. Recto lands in 9th to 10th places while Ilocos Norte Representative
Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. gets the support of 27.7% of registered voters for a statistical
ranking of 9th to 10th places. (See Table 1 — Senatorial Preferences)
3
Table 1
2010 ELECTIONS: SENATORIAL PREFERENCES
April 23 - 25, 2010 / Philippines
(Multiple Response, up to 12 names allowed)
Page 1 of 2
Base: Total Registered Voters, 100%
Legend:
4
Table 1
2010 ELECTIONS: SENATORIAL PREFERENCES
April 23 - 25, 2010 / Philippines
(Multiple Response, up to 12 names allowed)
Page 2 of 2
Base: Total Registered Voters, 100%
5
Between March and April 2010, significant gains in electoral support are enjoyed
by Colonel Querubin (+7.3 percentage points) and Akbayan Party-List Representative
Hontiveros-Baraquel (+8.5 percentage points). There is also a slight improvement in the
overall voter preference of former Senator Osmeña (+4.3 percentage points) while
electoral support for Senator Cayetano declines by about the same margin (-4.6
percentage points). The other probable winners in the senatorial elections register only
marginal changes in their respective voter preferences during this period. (See Table 2 —
Comparative Senatorial Preference).
Overall, Filipino registered voters are naming a mean of seven and a median of
eight (out of a maximum of 12) of their preferred candidates for senator. With less than a
month to go before the May 2010 elections, less than half of the Filipino electorate has a
complete senatorial slate (37%) while 9.1% does not express support for any of those
running for senator. (See Table 2 — Comparative Senatorial Preference).
Table 2
COMPARATIVE SENATORIAL VOTER PREFERENCES
March and April 2010 / Philippines
(Multiple Response, up to 12 names allowed)
Page 1 of 2
Senatorial Preferences Voting For (%) Change*
Mar Apr Apr10 -
10 10 Mar10
61 61
names names
BONG REVILLA, Ramon Jr. "Kap" B. 53.0 52.8 - 0.2
ESTRADA, Jinggoy E. 52.1 50.0 - 2.1
DEFENSOR-SANTIAGO, Miriam P. 46.2 47.9 + 1.7
ENRILE, Juan Ponce "JPE" 42.1 40.6 - 1.5
DRILON, Franklin "Frank" M. 41.1 38.4 - 2.7
CAYETANO, Pilar Juliana "Pia" S. 42.7 38.1 - 4.6
SOTTO, Vicente III "Tito" C. 35.1 32.3 - 2.8
OSMEÑA, Sergio III "Serge" R. 27.9 32.2 + 4.3
RECTO, Ralph G. 32.5 30.1 - 2.4
MARCOS, Ferdinand Jr. "Bongbong" R. 30.6 27.7 - 2.9
GUINGONA, Teofisto III "TG" D. 22.7 23.0 + 0.3
LAPID, Manuel "Lito" M. 23.9 21.0 - 2.9
HONTIVEROS-BARAQUEL, 11.7 20.2 + 8.5
Ana Theresia "Risa Hontiveros" H.
DE VENECIA, Jose III "Joey" P. 21.4 19.6 - 1.8
PIMENTEL, Gwendolyn "Gwen" D. 19.6 19.2 - 0.4
REMULLA, Gilbert Cesar "Gilbert" C. 17.5 18.7 + 1.2
QUERUBIN, Ariel "Marines" O. 10.2 17.5 + 7.3
BIAZON, Rozzano Rufino "Ruffy" B. 18.5 17.3 - 1.2
LIM, Danilo "General Danny" D. 14.7 16.4 + 1.7
ROCO, Sonia "Son" M. 14.9 16.0 + 1.1
LACSON, Alexander "Pinoy" L. 13.3 13.4 + 0.1
OSMEÑA, Emilio Mario "Promdi" R. 10.8 13.0 + 2.2
MITRA, Ramon "Mon-Mon" B. 11.0 12.1 + 1.1
MAZA, Liza "Liza Masa ng Gabriela" L. 7.1 10.8 + 3.7
OCAMPO, Saturnino "Satur" C. 7.7 10.2 + 2.5
6
Table 2
COMPARATIVE SENATORIAL VOTER PREFERENCES
March and April 2010 / Philippines
(Multiple Response, up to 12 names allowed)
Page 2 of 2
Senatorial Preferences Voting For (%) Change*
Mar Apr Apr10 -
10 10 Mar10
61 61
names names
TATAD, Francisco "Kit" S. 13.1 10.1 - 3.0
TAMANO, Adel A. 5.8 9.5 + 3.7
LOZADA, Jose Apolinario Jr. "Jun Lozada" L. 10.6 8.1 - 2.5
ACOSTA, Nereus Jr. "Neric" O. 4.0 7.7 + 3.7
BELLO, Silvestre III "Bebot" H. 4.0 6.6 + 2.6
LANGIT, Rey M. 7.9 6.1 - 1.8
OPLE, Susan "Toots" V. 4.5 5.5 + 1.0
PAPIN, Imelda A. 5.2 4.9 - 0.3
LAO, Yasmin "Yas" B. 1.4 4.9 + 3.5
BAUTISTA, Martin "Dr. Balikbayan" D. 2.7 4.2 + 1.5
BAUTISTA, J.V. Larion 3.4 3.7 + 0.3
PLAZA, Rodolfo Rodrigo "Ompong" G. 1.8 3.7 + 1.9
VILLANUEVA, Hector "Ka Hector" L. 3.8 3.0 - 0.8
OCAMPO, Ramoncito "Monching" P. 3.7 3.0 - 0.7
INOCENCIO, Ma. Katherine 1.4 2.2 + 0.8
Luningning "Kata" R.
GUICO, Ramon Jr. "Monching" N. 2.6 2.1 - 0.5
ALONTO, Zafrullah "Noldy" M. 2.0 2.1 + 0.1
TAMAYO, Reginald "Regie" B. 2.2 2.0 - 0.2
PALPARAN, Jovito Jr. "Jovi" S. 1.8 1.9 + 0.1
LAMBINO, Raul L. 2.4 1.8 - 0.6
ALBANI, Shariff Ibrahim "Shariff" H. 1.2 1.7 + 0.5
MAAMBONG, Regalado "Dodong" E. 1.4 1.6 + 0.2
SISON, Adrian O. 2.2 1.4 - 0.8
DAVID, Rizalito "Lito" Y. 0.9 1.3 + 0.4
ESPINOSA, NANETTE "Ate Nanette" M. 1.6 1.3 - 0.3
TINSAY, Alexander "Alex Tinsay" B. 1.1 1.2 + 0.1
PAREDES, Zosimo Jesus II "Jess" M. 0.8 1.1 + 0.3
IMBONG, Jo Aurea "Ate Jo" M. 1.4 1.0 - 0.4
CAUNAN, Henry B. 1.1 0.9 - 0.2
VIRGINES, Israel "Dr. Israel" N. 0.5 0.7 + 0.2
NIKABULIN, Adz "Count Habib" G. 0.6 0.6 0.0
PRINCESA, Reynaldo "Prince" R. 0.4 0.6 + 0.2
RIÑOZA-PLAZO, Maria Gracia "Grace" DV. 0.6 0.5 - 0.1
VALDEHUESA, Manuel Jr. "Manny" E. 0.6 0.5 - 0.1
TARRAZONA, Hector "Tarzan" M. 0.4 0.5 + 0.1
LOOD, Alma A. 0.3 0.4 + 0.1
None / Refused / Undecided 10.7 9.1 - 1.6
7
A small majority of registered voters (52%) now reports awareness of the party-list
system; 14 party-list groups obtain the support of at least 2% of registered voters
with a party-list preference
As the campaign for the May 2010 elections goes full-swing, more Filipino
registered voters now say they have heard or read something about the party-list system
compared to a month ago (52% versus 42%). Majorities in Metro Manila, the Visayas,
and Mindanao (55% to 57%) and Classes ABC and D (53% to 70%) know about the
party-list system. Between March and April 2010, levels of awareness of the party-list
system increase in Class D (+11 percentage points), Class ABC (+15 percentage points),
and Mindanao (+16 percentage points). Despite this improvement in public awareness,
the present national level of awareness is still lower than the April 2007 figure (59%), the
highest level of awareness recorded by Pulse Asia. (See Table 3, Comparative Awareness
of the Party-List System, 2004-2010).
Table 3
AWARENESS OF THE PARTY-LIST SYSTEM
March 2004 to April 2010 / Philippines
(In Percent)
INTRO: In this election of May 2010, Filipinos will also vote for their representatives in the Lower House.
Twenty percent [20%] of the seats in the House of Representatives are reserved for so-called
party-list representatives. The party-list system is being implemented to give smaller parties/
groups/ organizations the chance to put their representatives in Congress. Voters will choose
only one group among all those who are running under the party-list system.
8
Nearly eight in ten registered voters (78%) express support for a party-list group
running in the May 2010 elections – significantly higher than the March 2010 figure
(72%). Currently, 14 party-list groups succeed in winning the support of at least 2% of
registered voters with a party-list preference. In addition, based on the formula for the
allocation of party-list seats laid out in the 21 April 2009 decision of the Supreme Court1,
27 other party-list groups would win a place in the House of Representatives. Among the
probable winners in the party-list elections, only two groups would get the maximum
number of three congressional seats – Gabriela (7.32%) and Akbayan (5.36%). (See Table
4, Electoral Preference of Party-list groups and Seat Allocation).
Table 4
ELECTORAL PREFERENCE OF PARTY-LIST GROUPS
April 23 - 25, 2010 / Philippines
page 1 of 2
* Excludes Paty-List Groups who did not submit their nominees per COMELEC report posted at their website dated 16 April 2010.
1
This decision is based on the case filed by BANAT versus the COMELEC, with various other party-list
groups as intervenors. Please refer to http://sc.judiciary.gov.ph/jurisprudence/2009/april2009/179271.htm.
9
Table 4
ELECTORAL PREFERENCE OF PARTY-LIST GROUPS
April 23 - 25, 2010 / Philippines
page 2 of 2
ROUND 2: 1ST ROUND 2: 2ND
BASE: STEP STEP
THOSE WITH
PARTY-LIST ROUND 1: NO. OF NO. OF TOTAL
PREF ONLY ASSURED OF ADD'L ADD'L NO. OF
PARTY-LIST PREFERENCE (78%)* 1 SEAT % SEATS % SEATS SEATS
KABATAAN 1.93 0.52 1 1
YACAP 1.74 0.47 1 1
1-UTAK 1.49 0.40 1 1
AGAP 1.47 0.40 1 1
CIBAC 1.41 0.38 1 1
COOP-NATCCO 1.28 0.35 1 1
KALINGA 1.25 0.34 1 1
1-CARE 1.13 0.31 1 1
1 ANG PAMILYA (FORMERLY ANC) 1.08 0.29 1 1
AKAP BATA 1.07 0.29 1 1
BANDILA 0.98 0.26 1 1
AGHAM 0.93 0.25 1 1
LPGMA 0.93 0.25 1 1
BANAT 0.87 0.23 1 1
ACT TEACHERS 0.86 0.23 1 1
PM (MANGGAGAWA) 0.86 0.23 1 1
ABC 0.83 0.22 1 1
1-ABAA 0.80 0.22 1 1
AAPS 0.78 0.21 1 1
ALIF 0.76 0.21 1 1
BABAE KA 0.73 0.20 1 1
AKAP 0.72 0.19 1 1
DIWA 0.69 0.19 1 1
AME 0.66 0.18 1 1
AKMA-PTM 0.65 0.18 1 1
PACYAW 0.65 0.18 1 1
ANAK 0.64 0.17 1 1
27
27 30
= 57 SEATS
10