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每日交投策略
MARKET DATELINE
2010 年 5 月 5 日
市场技术解读
看来或形成了“双重顶”形态(Double Top)…
本地股市的交投指引∶
♦ 由于担心将会有更多紧缩措施,区域交投的士气普遍低靡。结果,本地股市于周二应声下滑。
技术解读∶
♦ 随着它以一根“看跌抱线型态”(bearish engulfing)报收,这也确认了之前的“上吊线”(hangman),反映出近期将
会出现更多疲弱走势。
♦ 有鉴于此,如果它在未来数日继续回退,那么该指数可能会形成“双重顶”形态(double top)。其下档支撑水平为位于
1,305 点的技术缺口和 1,300 点心理大关。
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每日交投策略∶
♦ 富时综指于本周所形成的“上吊线”和“看跌抱线型态”,掩盖了隔夜道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)反弹的利好消息,并且还持
续打击市场士气。
♦ 此外,一如我们之前所警告,潜在的“双重顶”形态的风险也抵消了部分投资者的乐观情绪,从而使到昨日的交投转淡。
♦ 有鉴于此,中期投资者应考虑锁定利润。至于若该指数在短期内失去这些移动平均线的话,那么短期交易员应准备止损离
场。
表 1 ∶每日统计 表 2∶主要海外指数及原产品
4月 4月 4月 5月 5月 变动 变动
收盘
股市摘要 28 日 29 日 30 日 3日 4日 本地主要指数 (点) (%)
上升股 富时大马综合指数 1,342.89 -4.00 -0.3
236 347 436 254 176
下跌股 富时大马 100 指数 8,804.76 -37.81 -0.4
472 363 265 456 555
平盘 富时大马创业板 4,106.22 -52.57 -1.3
276 279 321 268 285
无交易 各大海外指数
385 378 347 395 354
道琼斯工商指数 10,926.77 -225.06 -2.0
市场资本 纳斯达克指数 2,424.25 -74.49 -3.0
总成交量 标准与普尔 500 1,173.60 -28.66 -2.4
(百万股) 831 899 889 771 767 伦敦金融时报指数 5,411.11 -142.18 -2.6
总成交值 恒生指数 20,763.05 -48.31 -0.2
(百万令吉) 1,118 988 1,475 1,031 1,069 雅加达综合指数 2,959.02 -1.88 -0.1
东京日经 225 指数 11,057.40 休市 休市
外汇 首尔综合指数 1,718.75 -2.46 -0.1
令吉兑美元 3.2160 3.1960 3.1820 3.2085 3.2100 上海综合指数 2,835.28 -35.33 -1.2
曼谷综合指数 796.86 33.35 4.4
资料来源∶RHBInvest &彭博社( Bloomberg) 富时新加坡海峡时报指
数 2,901.18 -43.04 -1.5
台湾加权指数 7,930.77 -21.40 -0.3
印度 Sensex 指数 17,137.14 -248.94 -1.4
主要原产品
纽约商品交易所
(NYMEX)原油期货
(每桶/美元) 82.74 -3.45 -4.0
MDEX 原棕油 – 第 3
个月 (每公吨/令吉) 2,515.00 -39.00 -1.5
美国利率 目前 最新
10 年 4 月
隔夜联邦基金利率 0-0.25% 无变动
27 日-28 日
下个联邦公开市场操作
2010 年 6 月 22 日-23 日
委员会(FOMC)会议
Page 2 of 6
2010 年 5 月 5 日
图 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(日线图) 图 4∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(单日线图)
技术解读∶
♦ 在本地现货市场转弱下,本地期货市场也在新一轮的套利压力下于午盘陷入负值区。
♦ 此外,交易员也受惊于在早盘突然掉头逆转的欧洲股市,如伦敦金融时报指数(-1.0%)、德国 Dax(-0.89%)和法国
CAC(-1.4%),这也导致尾盘的交投士气恶化。
每日交投策略∶
♦ 昨日疲弱的收盘建议期指今日将进一步回退。
表 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)收盘
FKLI (月份) 变动
合约 开盘 最高 最低 收盘 (点) 结算 成交量 未平仓宗数
10 年 5 月 1349.00 1352.50 1338.50 1338.50 -5.00 1338.50 5495 19029
10 年 6 月 1351.00 1352.00 1338.00 1338.00 -5.50 1338.00 247 576
10 年 9 月 1350.50 1351.50 1338.00 1339.00 -3.50 1339.00 68 219
10 年 12 月 1351.00 1351.00 1340.00 1340.00 -2.00 1340.00 52 13
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2010 年 5 月 5 日
图 5∶美国道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)(日线图) 图 6∶美国纳斯达克指数(Nasdaq)(日线图)
美国股市的交投指引∶
♦ 华尔街股市创下自 2 月初以来的最大跌势,归咎于市场担忧欧洲债务危机扩大至其它欧元区成员国。
♦ 在希腊获得援助后,如今焦点已转向西班牙和葡萄牙,基于投资者猜测这两个国家可能会申请财务援助。
♦ 此外,投资者也质疑希腊能否执行援助配套所制定的紧缩措施。
♦ 结果,这迫使资金从股票和原产品市场撤资,并流向被视为避风港的美元和债券市场。
技术解读∶
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2010 年 5 月 5 日
每日技术焦点∶
图 7∶ 友尼森( Unisem)(日线图) 图 8∶ 友尼森(单日线图)
看来将会在跟进卖压动力下走低…
技术解读∶
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
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Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
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