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Bolsa de Valores,
Mercadorias e Futuros
Economic Valuation Report of Cetip S.A.
Mercados Organizados
April 11, 2016
Contents
I. Executive summary
II. Information about the appraiser
III. Information on the Company
IV. Market information
V. Methodology
VI. Discount rate
VII. Assumptions
VIII. Economic valuation
Appendix
1. Appendix I Glossary
2. Appendix II Important notes
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
This Report includes important notes (see Attachment II) relating to the
KPMG Scope of work before the Client.
Sources of information
The work also took into account information of financial and economic
projections provided by the Client and its financial advisors.
This Report is a free translation into English (requested by the Client) of the report issued in Brazilian Portuguese. If there are any discrepancies or differences between the
versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
Discount rate
KPMG was not hired to update this report after its date of issue.
3.0%
1.8%
5.1%
1.0
4.5%
3.1%
1.0%
14.8%
Cost of debt
Tax
Kd after tax - nominal - Kd (b)
12.0%
34.0%
7.9%
WACC
% common equity capital in the capital structure ( c )
% of debt capital in the capital structure ( d )
WACC nominal = (a*c) + (b*d)
97.5%
2.5%
14.7%
Valuation Criterion
Discount rate
Cetip
This Report is a free translation into English (requested by the Client) of the report issued in Brazilian Portuguese. If there are any discrepancies or differences between the
versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
11,296
Economic value
per share (R$) 42.67
12,423
46.93
Fernando A. Mattar
KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda.
Partner
Gabriel Carracedo
KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda.
Director
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
Contents
I. Executive summary
II. Information about the appraiser
III. Information on the Company
IV. Market information
V. Methodology
VI. Discount rate
VII. Assumptions
VIII. Economic valuation
Appendix
1. Appendix I Glossary
2. Appendix II Important notes
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
Anti-money laundering;
Financial valuations.
KPMG brand was created in 1987 from the merge of Peat Marwick
International (PMI) and Klynveld Main Goerdeler (KMG).
You can find the curricula vitae of these professionals on pages 9 and
10.
This Report is a free translation into English (requested by the Client) of the report issued in Brazilian Portuguese. If there are any discrepancies or differences between the
versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
There are no commercial and credit relations that could impact the
Report;
b) Valuation report using the criteria of the net book value adjusted to
market prices, worth a total amount of approximately R$
100,000.00 (One hundred thousand Reais); and
c)
This Report is a free translation into English (requested by the Client) of the report issued in Brazilian Portuguese. If there are any discrepancies or differences between the
versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
Fernando A. C. S. B. Mattar
Position
Qualifications
Experience
Since 1995 works in in business consulting, conducting projects in the financial restructuring of
companies, economic-financial, mergers and acquisitions and start-up companies and business units.
Started at KPMG in 2006. Before he served as manager of Arthur Andersen and worked as manager of
business development for the Cisneros Group in Latin America.
Sector of experience
Pharmaceutical, Entertainment, Internet Services, Consumer Products (food, beverage, pulp and paper
etc..), Telecommunications and Retail Companies.
Name
Position
Qualifications
Experience
Started at KPMG in 2003, Gabriel has a strong experience in financial valuation, trough different
methodologies.
Sector of experience
This Report is a free translation into English (requested by the Client) of the report issued in Brazilian Portuguese. If there are any discrepancies or differences between the
versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
Position
Qualifications
Experience
Works in the accounting, auditing and consulting areas for over six years. Fabiano has experience in
financial advisory services, including financial planning, business plan development and project
analysis. Acts in mergers and acquisitions area, with a greater focus on valuation models (valuation)
and mergers and acquisitions.
Sector of experience
Banking, real estate, power, agribusiness, foods and beverages, retail and logistic.
This Report is a free translation into English (requested by the Client) of the report issued in Brazilian Portuguese. If there are any discrepancies or differences between the
versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
10
Presented below are some of KPMGs experiences in companys valuations in the last years:
2016
2015
2015
2015
vora S.A.
Eneva S.A.
Eneva S.A.
ABCD
ABCD
ABCD
ABCD
2014
2013
2013
2013
ABCD
ABCD
ABCD
ABCD
This Report is a free translation into English (requested by the Client) of the report issued in Brazilian Portuguese. If there are any discrepancies or differences between the
versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
11
Contents
I. Executive summary
II. Information about the appraiser
III. Information on the Company
IV. Market information
V. Methodology
VI. Discount rate
VII. Assumptions
VIII. Economic valuation
Appendix
1. Appendix I Glossary
2. Appendix II Important notes
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
12
Blackrock. Inc.
Others
81.52%
5.28%
12.00%
Shares in
Treasury
The chronology of the main events that occurred in the history of Cetip
are explained below:
1984
1986
1988
2008
2009
2010
2011
1.2%
2012
100.00%
GRV Solutions
100%
Cetip Lux S..r.l.
100%
Cetip Info
Tecnologia S.A.
2013
This Report is a free translation into English (requested by the Client) of the report issued in Brazilian Portuguese. If there are any discrepancies or differences between the
versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
13
2013
908,575
(276,176)
(275,359)
31
(848)
632,399
(75,790)
556,146
33,595
(77,174)
(463)
512,567
(90,447)
(61,092)
361,028
2014
1,015,885
(316,666)
(315,634)
584
(1,616)
699,219
(83,108)
616,825
59,069
(117,760)
714
558,134
(111,193)
(19,822)
427,119
2015
1,125,430
(354,941)
(350,248)
144
(4,837)
770,489
(92,771)
678,683
294,476
(405,904)
965
567,255
(129,730)
60,081
497,606
This Report is a free translation into English (requested by the Client) of the report issued in Brazilian Portuguese. If there are any discrepancies or differences between the
versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
14
2013
2,735,651
505,117
475
381,685
93,073
16,679
7,011
6,194
85,768
79,746
162
3,744
2,116
2,144,766
5,497
109,683
(68,861)
2,307,087
(208,640)
2014
2,998,539
740,930
551
590,349
106,735
17,431
7,784
18,080
135,944
128,197
137
5,526
2,084
2,121,665
6,211
128,612
(78,681)
2,347,452
(281,929)
2015
3,497,064
1,007,642
2,438
801,956
117,658
63,917
7,084
14,589
373,958
248,553
120,663
181
2,659
1,902
2,115,464
6,873
126,771
(79,086)
2,423,547
(362,641)
BS Consolidated - R$ '000
Liabilities
Current liabilities
Suppliers
Labor obligations and social charges
Taxes payable
Income tax and social contribution
Dividends and interest on own capital payable
Debentures issued
Financial instruments
Loans and finance lease obligations
Deferred revenues
Other liabilities
Non-current liabilities
Suppliers
Deferred income tax and social contribution
Provision for contingencies and legal obligations
Debentures issued
Loans and finance lease obligations
Deferred revenues
Shareholders' equity
Capital
Capital reserves
Carrying value adjustments
Income reserves
Treasury shares
Retained earnings
Additional dividends proposed
2013
2,735,651
337,300
25,969
48,195
12,837
787
45,858
156,053
2014
2,998,539
240,225
23,496
56,682
14,902
2,181
80,130
17,427
3,507
44,044
50
708,788
3,662
176,052
3,067
474,774
9,291
41,942
1,689,563
586,428
533,193
(247)
405,655
(5,031)
169,565
2,608
42,754
45
1,012,361
2,073
195,785
4,536
498,175
271,153
40,639
1,745,953
635,937
533,821
(413)
464,715
111,893
2015
3,497,064
340,198
54,416
68,411
18,183
8,435
110,261
21,431
11,572
7,113
40,223
153
1,461,051
8,046
136,465
5,933
498,849
775,019
36,739
1,695,815
658,416
527,834
(8,313)
539,388
(104,502)
82,992
This Report is a free translation into English (requested by the Client) of the report issued in Brazilian Portuguese. If there are any discrepancies or differences between the
versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
15
Below are shown the historical financial indicators of Cetip (source: audited financial statements)
Volume
7,751
7,611
8,193
6,757
6,393
5,312
2013
2014
2015
412,579
436,216
384,024
690,132
786,642
950,495
2013
2014
2015
Financing unit
Securities unit
68.83%
68.46%
632,399
699,219
770,489
2013
2014
2015
EBITDA
361,028
427,119
497,606
2013
2014
2015
% Margin EBITDA
This Report is a free translation into English (requested by the Client) of the report issued in Brazilian Portuguese. If there are any discrepancies or differences between the
versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
16
Contents
I. Executive summary
II. Information about the appraiser
III. Information on the Company
IV. Market information
V. Methodology
VI. Discount rate
VII. Assumptions
VIII. Economic valuation
Appendix
1. Appendix I Glossary
2. Appendix II Important notes
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
17
Cetip is the main service provider of the custody market for private
fixed income.
The fixed income market reached, in January 2016, US$ 2,658 billion
of actual value invested in their segments, an increase of 3.69% when
compared to January 2015.
The major custodians in the international market are the DTCC (United
States), Euroclear, and Clearstream (Europe).
2,639
2,564
2,561
2,562
2,519
2,534
2,532
May-15
Jun-15
2,579
2,582
Jul-15
Aug-15
2,654
2,644
Nov-15
Dec-15
2,625
2,658
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Source: Cetip
This Report is a free translation into English (requested by the Client) of the report issued in Brazilian Portuguese. If there are any discrepancies or differences between the
versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
18
19%
35%
54.5%
54.0%
29%
2%
2%
13%
DI
54.0%
3,220
3,082
3,100 3,110
3,135
3,199
3,013 3,024
53.8%
53.0%
3,061 3,062
Source: Cetip
53.2%
52.8% 52.9%
53.6%
54.0%
% GDP
Source: Bacen
19
The segmentation of credit, both for individuals and for legal entities,
according to the Central Bank, is presented below:
Below, please see the most used modes during the period of 2016:
3%
21.25%
26.63%
16%
BNDES
Real estate
Financing
Personal Credit
Consortium
Rural
Others
Vehicles
0.17%
0.95%
Credit card
17.98%
5.65%
81%
Microcredit
5.69%
7.22%
Acquisition of goods
Others
14.47%
Source: Cetip
Source: Bacen
The values obtained for vehicle financing declined from January 2015
to January 2016, as shown below:
184
182
180
178
175
173
171
169
167
165
163
161
160
Leasing, where the lender is the owner of the property, and the
possession and use are of the lessee; and
19
Source: Bacen
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
17
16
16
This Report is a free translation into English (requested by the Client) of the report issued in Brazilian Portuguese. If there are any discrepancies or differences between the
versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
20
The interest rates for vehicle financing rose in the last 12 months due
to the current political and economic conditions in Brazil, as shown
below:
24%
21%
25%
21%
25%
25%
21%
21%
25%
22%
25%
21%
25%
21%
25%
21%
26%
21%
26%
22%
26%
22%
26%
22%
28%
23%
Source: Cetip
This Report is a free translation into English (requested by the Client) of the report issued in Brazilian Portuguese. If there are any discrepancies or differences between the
versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
21
The inflation rate (IPCA) estimated for the 2016-2025 period is shown
in the chart below. We can observe a fall between the years 2016 and
2019, according to the expectations of the institutions consulted by the
Central Bank (Central Bank of Brazil)
9,5%
7,5%
5,50
5,00
4,50
4,00
3,50
3,00
2,50
2,00
10,7%
11,5%
7,4%
6,4%
5,9%
5,9%
5,5% 5,2% 5,1% 5,1% 5,1% 5,1% 5,1% 5,1%
5,5%
3,5%
The American inflation rate estimated for the period between 2016 and
2025 is shown below. In the chart are observed growth of price indices
in the years 2016 and 2017 in relation to 2015. In the long-term the
trend is stabilizing, according to projections made by The Economist.
8,0%
6,0%
4,0%
2,0%
0,0%
1,5%
1,3%
0,7% 0,7%
4,79 4,94
4,54 4,65
4,40
4,19 4,20 4,26
3,95 4,11
3,33
2,35
2,16
Brazilian GDP
American inflation
2,0% 2,4%
2,3%
2,0%
0,1%
1,0%
0,0%
-1,0%
-2,0%
-3,0%
-3,8%
-4,0%
0,3%
-3,7%
This Report is a free translation into English (requested by the Client) of the report issued in Brazilian Portuguese. If there are any discrepancies or differences between the
versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
22
Contents
I. Executive summary
II. Information about the appraiser
III. Information on the Company
IV. Market information
V. Methodology
VI. Discount rate
VII. Assumptions
VIII. Economic valuation
Appendix
1. Appendix I Glossary
2. Appendix II Important notes
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
23
V. Methodology (1/3)
Valuation criterion
The criterion used for the study of Cetips economic valuation was the
discounted cash flow.
The criterion of the discounted cash flow method is widely used in the
market for business valuation, determining feasibility studies,
purchase, sale, merger and IPO companies because it allows for the
proper measurement of the expected return on investment for the
investor. Below, we present a brief description of this criterion.
Moreover, it should be noted that when using the "cash flow to the
firm" (or "free cash flow") approach in projecting profits, revenue and
interest expenses are not projected. In that approach, cash flows
available to all capital providers (i.e., both shareholders and creditors)
are projected.
The discounted cash flow criterion has its grounds in the concept that
the value of a company or business is directly related to the sums and
to the times in which the free cash flows, originating from its
operations, will be available for distribution. Therefore, for the
shareholders the value of the company is measured by the sum of
financial resources to be generated in the future by the business,
discounted at their present value, to reflect the time, the opportunity
cost and the risk associated with this distribution.
This criterion also captures the value of intangible assets, such as
brand, customer portfolio, product portfolio and market share, to the
extent that this value is reflected in the ability to generate results.
For the purposes of this study, it is assumed that 100% of the surplus
cash will be available for distribution at the time it is generated.
This Report is a free translation into English (requested by the Client) of the report issued in Brazilian Portuguese. If there are any discrepancies or differences between the
versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
24
V. Methodology (2/3)
Note that, when the cash flow to equity method is used, flows are
discounted at own capital cost, normally calculated based on CAPM
(Capital Assets Pricing Model) methodology. In this case, the evaluated
companys loans and financing value is not deducted from its value and
financial expenses and income are projected in cash flow.
Perpetuity value at
the end of last year
of the projection
FCn x (1+g)
=
(i-g)
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versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
25
V. Methodology (3/3)
Terminal value
Perpetual cash flow grows constant or
zero rate
Adjustment
s
Present value of
terminal value
Market value of
analyzed company
CFN
CF
CFN + 1
CF3
CF2
Present value of
projected cash
flows
CF1
.................
.........
.........
N+1
Projected horizon
.................
Perpetuity
Discount rate
Firm: Cost of debt (WACC)
Equity: Cost of equity (CAPM)
This Report is a free translation into English (requested by the Client) of the report issued in Brazilian Portuguese. If there are any discrepancies or differences between the
versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
26
Contents
I. Executive summary
II. Information about the appraiser
III. Information on the Company
IV. Market information
V. Methodology
VI. Discount rate
VII. Assumptions
VIII. Economic valuation
Appendix
1. Appendix I Glossary
2. Appendix II Important notes
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
27
Ke
Cost of Equity
=
x (E[Rm] Rf)
+
Rb
+
Rs
The cost of equity may be calculated with the Capital Assets Pricing
Model (CAPM). The equity cost is calculated according to the following
formula:
This Report is a free translation into English (requested by the Client) of the report issued in Brazilian Portuguese. If there are any discrepancies or differences between the
versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
28
In order to quantify the average risk free return (Rf), we considered the
average return of the American 30-year Treasury Bond (T-Bond) for 24
months before March 24, 2016, which was 3.0%. (source:
Bloomberg).
Beta Calculation
For the long term stock market risk premium (E[Rm] Rf), we used
the average return above the Treasury Bond rate provided by investing
in the American stock market from 1928 to 2015, which was 4.5%
(source: Aswath Damodaran website).
To estimate the risk associated with Brazil (Rb), we used the average
difference between the yield of the Global-Bond 37 in relation to the TBond performance, from the 24 months before the base date of March
24, 2016, which was 3.1% (source: Bloomberg).
For the projected American inflation, the long term inflation rate was
considered, as of March, 2016. The rate used was 1.8%. (source:
Economist).
Where:
Size Premium
For the Companys size premium it was considered the rate of 1.0%, a
rate applied to the same-sized companies. (source: Ibbotson
Associates, 2015).
d = /[1 + (1 T)*(D/E)]
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versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
29
r = d*[1 + (1 T)*(D/E)]
The cost of debt indicates the cost of the loans made to project
financing. In general terms, it is determined by the following variables:
The current level of interest rates;
Where:
The rates of income tax and social contribution have direct influence
on the cost of debt, since these payments are tax deductible.
Ticker
Levered Beta
Tax rate
Unlevered Beta
0.9
1.3%
26.1%
0.9
ASX Ltd.
ASX AU Equity
1.3
0.0%
29.5%
1.3
CME US Equity
0.7
3.0%
36.4%
0.7
LS4C GB Equity
1.0
5.9%
30.5%
1.0
2.6%
30.6%
Average
1.0
Where:
Kd = Cost of debt;
Debt to
Equity
CTIP3 BZ Equity
Kd = RD * (1 T)
RD = Debt rate;
T = Tax rate of income tax and social contribution.
1.0
Relevered Beta
Beta
D/E
Tax
Relevered Beta
1.0
2.6%
34.0%
1.0
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30
Capital Structure
Discount rate
Cetip
3.0%
1.8%
5.1%
1.0
4.5%
3.1%
1.0%
14.8%
Cost of debt
Tax
Kd after tax - nominal - Kd (b)
12.0%
34.0%
7.9%
WACC
% common equity capital in the capital structure ( c )
% of debt capital in the capital structure ( d )
WACC nominal = (a*c) + (b*d)
97.5%
2.5%
14.7%
This Report is a free translation into English (requested by the Client) of the report issued in Brazilian Portuguese. If there are any discrepancies or differences between the
versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
31
Contents
I. Executive summary
II. Information about the appraiser
III. Information on the Company
IV. Market information
V. Methodology
VI. Discount rate
VII. Assumptions
VIII. Economic valuation
Appendix
1. Appendix I Glossary
2. Appendix II Important notes
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
32
The forecasts were prepared using the Brazilian Real as the currency
and were prepared in nominal terms (considering the effects of
inflation), for the base date December 31, 2015.
Forecast horizon
Discount rate:
The discount rate was forecast in accordance with the WACC method
(Weighted Average Cost of Capital), in nominal terms, at 14.7% p.a.
Adjustments:
A companys cash inflows and outflows occur over time during its
business cycles. Consequently, the calculation of the present value of
the cash flows generated over a specific time should discount the
individual expenses and income, considering the different dates they
occur. Thus, the cash generated at the start of the year should be
discounted for less time that the cash generated at the end of the
year.
This Report is a free translation into English (requested by the Client) of the report issued in Brazilian Portuguese. If there are any discrepancies or differences between the
versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
33
Revenue
i.
ii.
iii.
New projects
2,000
1,500
1,000
2,500
2,000
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Fixed income
1,500
2021
2022
Derivatives
2023
2024
2025
Others
1,000
500
2016
2017
Register
2018
2019
Custody
2020
2021
Transactions
2022
2023
Utilization
2024
2025
Others
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versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
34
Debentures;
3,000
Maintenance of consignors
2,500
2,000
1,500
2,500
1,000
2,000
500
1,500
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
1,000
SNG
500
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Consignors maintenance
Sircof
Others
2025
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versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
35
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Projects - Vehicles
2023
2024
2025
Indirect tax
Indirect taxes refer to ISS, PIS and COFINS. For 2016 the historic rate
of 17.4% was used. As from 2017, a reduction of 3 percentage points
to ISS was considered only for UTVM revenues, as a result of moving
the various services to the location in Barueri-SP, which resulted in
the rate of 14.4%. The ISS rate for the UF revenue remained
unaltered.
Taxes
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versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
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Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
36
Fees and taxes, FENASEG costs and credential registration fees and
other services were estimated based on a fixed percentage of net
revenue with reference to the percentage registered in 2015.
The expenses for new projects were forecast as from 2020 based on
an average percentage of revenue from new projects of 24% p.a. in
accordance with the business plan for existing products.
Operational expenses brak-down (R$ MM)
3,000
Stock related
statements)
1,000
Operational expenses
Third party service
Others
2020
2021
2022
2023
matching
(source:
financial
The following table presents the applications and sources for the
working capital and respective drivers:
500
2019
1,500
2018
plan
2,000
2017
compensation
Working capital
2,500
2016
2024
2025
Personnel expenses
General and administrative expenses
Project expenses
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versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
37
Driver
Days
Applications
Cash and cash equivalents
Accounts receivables
Taxes and contributions
Prepaid expenses
Other credits
Days
Days
Days
Days
Days
of
of
of
of
of
Revenues
Revenues
Revenues
Expenses
Revenues
0.8
37.6
20.4
7.6
4.7
Sources
Suppliers
Labor liabilities and charges
Taxes payable
Income tax and social contribution
Revenues to be recognized
Other obligations
Days
Days
Days
Days
Days
Days
of
of
of
of
of
of
Expenses
Expenses
Revenues
Revenues
Revenues
Expenses
67.1
73.4
5.8
2.7
24.6
0.2
D&A - R$ MM
D&A
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
94
101
107
113
119
126
132
139
146
154
Capex
Capex - R$ MM
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Capex
150
134
130
125
119
126
132
139
146
154
This Report is a free translation into English (requested by the Client) of the report issued in Brazilian Portuguese. If there are any discrepancies or differences between the
versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
38
Contents
I. Executive summary
II. Information about the appraiser
III. Information on the Company
IV. Market information
V. Methodology
VI. Discount rate
VII. Assumptions
VIII. Economic valuation
Appendix
1. Appendix I Glossary
2. Appendix II Important notes
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
39
The projections of the Cetips results for the January 2016 to December 2025 period are presented, based on the assumptions described earlier:
1,266
Operational expenses
EBITDA
% EBITDA Margin
Depreciation and amortization
EBIT
% EBIT Margin
(-) Income tax and social contribution
Net Profit
2016
2017
1,436
2018
1,585
2019
1,748
2020
2,295
2021
2,512
2022
2,748
2023
3,006
2024
3,291
2025
3,604
(368)
(399)
(430)
(462)
(595)
(636)
(678)
(724)
(773)
(825)
898
71.0%
1,037
72.2%
1,155
72.9%
1,286
73.6%
1,700
74.1%
1,877
74.7%
2,069
75.3%
2,283
75.9%
2,518
76.5%
2,780
77.1%
(94)
(101)
(107)
(113)
(119)
(126)
(132)
(139)
(146)
(154)
804
63.5%
936
65.2%
1,048
66.1%
1,173
67.1%
1,581
68.9%
1,751
69.7%
1,937
70.5%
2,143
71.3%
2,372
72.1%
2,625
72.8%
(273)
(318)
(356)
(399)
(537)
(595)
(659)
(729)
(806)
(893)
531
618
692
774
1,043
1,156
1,279
1,415
1,565
1,733
This Report is a free translation into English (requested by the Client) of the report issued in Brazilian Portuguese. If there are any discrepancies or differences between the
versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
40
Based on the assumptions used, the nominal discount rate of 14.7% (see Appendix I - Discount Rate Analysis) and information provided by
Management, were projected operational free cash flows and discounted to present value, considering the base date December 31, 2015.
2016
2017
EBIT
804
936
(273)
(318)
(356)
(399)
(537)
(595)
(659)
(729)
(806)
(893)
(956)
94
101
107
113
119
126
132
139
146
154
165
2018
1,048
2019
1,173
(3)
(1)
(2)
(150)
(134)
(130)
(125)
25
25
25
25
2020
1,581
2021
1,751
2022
1,937
2023
2,143
2024
2,372
2025
2,625
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(5)
(119)
(126)
(132)
(139)
(146)
(154)
(165)
24
24
24
23
23
23
25
1,876
499
606
693
786
1,070
1,176
1,298
1,433
1,583
1,749
14.7%
14.7%
14.7%
14.7%
14.7%
14.7%
14.7%
14.7%
14.7%
Discount period
0.93
0.81
0.71
0.62
0.54
0.47
0.41
0.36
0.31
0.27
466
493
492
487
578
554
533
513
494
476
5,087
7.1%
6,778
11,865
2,813
(3)
14.7%
Discount rate
Perp.
(6)
11,860
Sensibility
Equity value
price per share
Base-date: 12/31/2015
n of shares
-4,75%
11,296
42.67
Mid point
11,860
44.80
+4,75%
12,423
46.93
264.7
41
Summary Report
1,531
802
249
121
0
3
119
28
16
192
2
Liabilities [b]
(1,537)
(110)
(107)
Issued debentures
(520)
(782)
Equity Value
(R$ MM)
Economic value
42.67
per share (R$)
11,296
12,423
46.93
(12)
(6)
(6)
(*) For the recognition of the conversion of stock options issued and not exercised by
December 31, 2015, was considered the exercise of 4,900,800 granted and valid actions
on the valuation date based on the updated exercise price as reported by Cetips
management.
This Report is a free translation into English (requested by the Client) of the report issued in Brazilian Portuguese. If there are any discrepancies or differences between the
versions, the version in Portuguese will prevail.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
42
Contents
I. Executive summary
II. Information about the appraiser
III. Information on the Company
IV. Market information
V. Methodology
VI. Discount rate
VII. Assumptions
VIII. Economic and financial valuation
Appendix
1. Appendix I Glossary
2. Appendix II Important Notes
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
43
BS
Balance Sheet
CAGR
CAPM
COFINS
Company
Client
CVM
EBIT
EBITDA
FS
Financial Statement
GAAP
GDP
IBGE
IPCA
IS
Income Statement
ITS
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
44
Law 6,404 of December 15, 1976 , which provides for the Corporation in Brazil
MPEEM
OS
Ordinary shares
PIS
PS
Preffered shares
Report
SELIC
Ticker
WACC
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
45
Assuming that the price of the shares within the ambit of the
Operation will observe the rulings in Corporate Law, KPMG did not
and does not make any recommendation, explicit or implicit, and does
not express any opinion with respect to defining the final price of the
Shares within the ambit of the Operation or with respect to the terms
and conditions of any operation involving the Company, or any of its
subsidiaries.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
46
The scope of the work proposed does not represent any obligation by
KPMG to detect frauds in the Cetip operations, processes, registers or
documents.
The scope of this report does not include determining the economic
values of any of the Companies contingencies. Therefore, with
respect to such items, we have based our work on information and
analyses made available by the Client and its legal advisors, as such,
KPMG is not responsible for the results of these services.
Also, the scope of this report does not include the assessment of nonoperating fixed assets and fixed assets individually of Cetip.
The sum of the individual values presented in the Report may differ
from the sum presented, as a result of rounding of the amounts
involved.
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
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2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International
Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.
48
2016 KPMG Corporate Finance Ltda., a Brazilian limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (KPMG
International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Brazil.