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(Change is constant)
Global Environmental
Trends
World Resources Institute
http://www.wri.org/wri/
Population (billions)
Africa
Europe
North America
2000
Developing
Africa
South and Central America
2050
Developed
Asia
Different assumptions,
different projections
World Population (billions)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Low
Medium
High
7
6
5
4
Developing
Developed
Africa
Asia
South and Central
America
3
2
1
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
World
Low Income
Middle Income
High Income
(millions in absolute
poverty)
East Asia
Latin
America
1987
Middle
East
1990
South
Asia
SubSaharan
Africa
1993
Total
1975
Africa
W. Europe
1980
Asia
N. America
1985
1990
Latin America
Population (billions)
1975
Rural Developed
Rural Developing
2000
Urban Developed
Urban Developing
2025
(percent)
1970
Africa
2000
2025
Asia
Central
America
Europe
North
South
America America
1000
739
500
404
340
-1366
0
-63
-41
111
102
-9
-85
-500
-392
-1000
-1500
Africa
Asia
Number (thousands)
Rate (per 100,000 population)
Europe
Latin
America and
Carribean
North
America
Oceania
Latin America
Sub-saharan Africa
(percent)
1980
World
1990
Africa
1994
Latin
America
and the
Carribean
Asia
Europe
Oceania
1980
World
Africa
1985
1990
Latin
America and
Caribbean
1995
Asia
Europe
Oceania
0
1960
1965
1970
Wheat Yield
1975
1980
Rice Yield
1985
1990
1995
Maize Yield
2000
% Increase in Yield
8
6
4
2
0
-2
1960
1965
1970
Wheat
1975
1980
1985
Paddy Rice
1990
1995
Maize
2000
180
U.S.S.R. (former)
Asia
World
160
Africa
Europe
Latin America
140
120
100
80
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
300
250
U.S.S.R. (former)
Africa
Asia
Europe
World
Latin America
200
150
100
50
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1969-71
1979-81
Sub-Saharan Africa
East and Southeast Asia
Latin America and the Caribbean
1990-92
2010
World Totals
(million hectares)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Vegetation Removal
Overexploitation
Overgrazing
Agricultural Activities
Industrial and
Bioindustrial
World
Africa
North and
Central
America
Vegetation Removal
Overgrazing
Industrial and Bioindustrial
South
America
Asia
Europe
Overexploitation
Agricultural Activities
Oceania
579
133
679
522
23
(percent)
10
8
6
4
2
0
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
Africa
Asia
Latin America
North America
Oceania
World
1986
1991
Europe
100
Total Capture
Total Aquaculture
80
60
40
20
0
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
40
30
20
10
Germany
Japan
Netherlands
Fossil fuels
Infrastructure excavation
United States
Construction minerals
Erosion
0.2
1970
1980
1990
1994
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
Africa
North/Central
America
South America
Asia
Europe
Oceania
World
Paper Recycling:
Rising Volume, Growing Importance
70
(percent recovered)
60
50
40
30
20
10
1970
1975
1980
1985
N. America
C. America
S. America
Africa
Oceania
Asia
1990
1995
Europe
Cars
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
749.7
Japan
519
Europe
269.6
96.6
Brazil
South America
88.3
Hong Kong
81
Africa
22.4
China
7.9
India
6.7
0
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Nitrous Oxide
6%
Methane
19%
United States
Canada
Russian Federation
Germany
Per capita
CO2
emissions are
small in
developing
countries
United Kingdom
Japan
Poland, Rep
Ukraine
Korea, Rep
South Africa
Italy
France
Mexico
China
India
Developed Countries
10
15
20
25
United States
European Union
Former USSR
China
Developed
nations have
altered the
atmosphere
most
Japan
India
Canada
South Africa
Mexico
Australia
Spain
Brazil
Iran, Islamic Rep
Korea, Dem People's Rep
Korea, Rep
Developed Countries
0
100
200
300
400
500
(billion metric tons of carbon dioxide)
600
Success story:
CFC production has fallen sharply
1,200
Industrialized Countries
Developing Countries
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1986
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
200
150
100
50
0
1986
China
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Industrialized Countries
More fertilizer:
More food, but more pollution too
Africa
Asia
South and Central America
Europe
North America
Oceania
World
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1990
Europe
2000
2010
United States and Canada
2020
Asia
60,000
55,000
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
1980 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
NOx
SO2
(percent)
40
30
20
10
0
Asia
Africa
Latin America
World
Cleared
Russia and
Europe
Asia
North &
South
America
South
America
Frontier Forest
Africa
Oceania
North America
Total Withdrawals
Oceania
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
20
40
Agricultural
60
Industrial
80
Domestic
100
500,000
400,000
(kilometers)
200,000
100,000
200
1680
3125
1800
8750
1900
1980
Global GNP
(US $18 trillion)
Ecosystem Services
(US $33 trillion)
High
Medium
(percent)
30%
20%
10%
0%
Coastal
Marine
Over-Exploitation
Land-based Pollution
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
300
200
100
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Haddock
COD CATCH
Red hake
Atlantic cod
Source: International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) Data and Information System, IGBP-DIS
Global 1-km Land Cover Set DISCover, 1998.
Source: DeFries, R., Hansen, M.C., Townshend, J.R.G., Janetos, A.C., and Loveland, T.R. 2000. A
New Global 1-km Dataset of Percentage Tree Cover Derived from Remote Sensing. Global Change
Biology, Vol. 6, pp. 247-254.
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
From Costanza et al.
Coral Reefs
Tropical
Forests
Temperate
Forests
Low
Medium
High
Finding 3
Least modified
Cropland and built
up area
Cropland/natural
vegetation mosaic
Virtually all lands within 100 km of the coast have been modified to
some extent by human use: 20 percent are highly altered through
conversion to agricultural or urban uses, 10 percent are semi-altered
in a mosaic of natural and altered vegetation, and 70 percent are the
least modified in their vegetative cover.
Source: International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) Data and Information System, IGBP-DIS Global 1-km Land
Cover Set DISCover, 1998. Elvidge, C.D., Baugh, K.E., Kihn, E.A., Kroehl, H.W. and Davis, E.R. 1997. Mapping City Lights
with Nighttime Data from the DMSP Operational Linescan System. Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing, vol. 63,
No. 6, June 1997, pp. 727-734.
A Global Perspective
life supporting resources
declining
consumption of life
supporting
resources
rising
Life on Earth
What is biodiversity?
Water
Timber
One-third of the
worlds population is
now subject to water
scarcity.
Population facing
water scarcity will
double over the next 30
years
Ag
ro
Services
-e
co
sy
st
em
Co
as
ta
lS
ys
te
m
s
Fo
re
st
Sy
st
em
s
Fr
es
hw
at
er
Gr
as
sla
nd
s
Ecosystem Type
Key
Condition of
Ecosystem
Excellent
Food-Fiber Production
Good
Fair
Water Quality
Poor
Bad
Water Quantity
Not Assessed
Biodiversity
Changing
Capacity
Decreasing
Carbon Storage
Increasing
Mixed
Environmental Scorecard
Agrobiodiversity
Mixedagroecosystems
agroecosystems
Mixed
Cropspecies
speciesand
andvarieties
varieties
Crop
Livestockand
andfish
fishspecies
species
Livestock
Plantand
andanimal
animal
Plant
germplasm
germplasm
Soilorganisms
organismsin
incultivated
cultivated
Soil
areas
areas
Insectsand
andfungi
fungithat
that
Insects
benefitproduction
production
benefit
Wildspecies
speciesfrom
fromoff-farm
off-farm
Wild
habitats
habitats
Culturaland
andlocal
local
Cultural
knowledgeof
ofdiversity
diversity
knowledge
Natural
Resources
Goods and
Services
Pollution, Waste
and Environmental
Disturbances
Natural
Resources
Reduce
Use of
Natural
Resources
Goods and
Services
Recover
Technical
Nutrients
Social
Dimension
Institutional
Dimension
Economic
Dimension
Environmental
Dimension
Individual
Human
System
Government
Society
Environment
Natural
System
Economy
Built
System
Infrastructure
Taiwan
is still
here
Ethics
Ethics
Social
Social
Responsibility
Responsibility
nnt t
e
m
e
n
ro m
EEnnvvi iroonut t
isisou
ththeerree te
a
sseeppaarrate
CCoosts
CCoom stsaanndd
mpplilaianc
ncee
OOnly
nlySSm
CCom maallll
omppan
CCan anieiess
anDDo
o
lity
EExxteterrnnaality
RRisiskk
LLiaiabbiliiltiyty
RReegguulalatitoionn
OOnnly B
ly ig
CCoompa Big
mpannieies
s
CCaannAf
f
Affoorrdd
Luxury
Luxuryfor
for
Good
Good
Times
Times
RE Diffusion
Transition as Evolution
Time
Stages of Learning
Unconscious
Competence
Conscious
Incompetence
Unconscious
Incompetence
Know there is a
great deal you dont
know.
Uncomfortable state
Comfortable state
Denial, resistance
Conscious
Competence
You learn and know
more. Mastery
increases.
Move from discomfort
to increasing levels of
comfort.
Mastery. Change
becomes second
nature, part of
organizational
DNA.
New practice
becomes the way
you do business.
Comfortable state
Global
Diffuse
Long Delay
High Complexity
Societal Impact High
Habitat destruction
Habitat degradation
Extinction
Major
Environmental
Problems
Overgrazing
Farmland loss and degradation
Wetlands loss and degradation
Overfishing
Coastal pollution
Soil erosion
Soil salinization
Water shortages
Groundwater depletion
Loss of biodiversity
Water Pollution
Human Health
Sediment
Nutrient overload
Toxic chemicals
Infectious agents
Oxygen depletion
Pesticides
Oil spills
Excess heat
Waste Production
Solid waste
Hazardous waste
Childhood diseases
Cancer
Asthma
Immune system deficiencies
Reproductive system problems
Endocrine system disruptions
Source: Living in the Environment, Tenth Edition, G. Tyler Miller, Jr., 1998
Sustainability View
Rhetoric
Operational excellence
Cost burden
Efficiencies
Compliance
Doing good
Peripheral
Core
Technology solutions
Reactive
Innovative, anticipatory,
entrepreneurial
Governments Work
Source: PAI
Water Use
OECD Water Use
(1995, %)
Industry
and Services
14.6%
Agriculture
45.5%
Household
9.4%
Household
4.0%
Energy
30.5%
Source: OECD
Agriculture
80.6%
Industry
and Services
4.0%
Source: OECD
Energy
11.4%
Number of Projects
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990
Source: OECD; World Bank
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Dams
Big Dams Built, By Decade
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1990
Source: ICOLD
00s
10s
20s
30s
40s
50s
60s
70s
80s
90s
Water Vendors
Water Vendors Price as a Multiple of Price of Piped Water
Selected Asian Cities
Delhi
Manila
Mumbai
Phnom Penh
Bangkok
Ho Chi Minh City
Dhaka
Jakarta
0x
25x
50x
75x
100x
500x
Meters and
Instrumentation
Desalination
Pipes / Valves
Membranes,
Filters and
POUs
Wholesale Clean
and Treat
Process Systems
$2035 billion
Industrial
Re-use
Water
Sector
Carbonated
Soft Drinks
Beverage
$52 billion
Infrastructure
$80180 billion
Bottled
Water
BOTs /
BOOs
Juices
Privatizations
Domain
Focus Areas
Bottled Water
Public Sector
BOTs
Desalination
Concessions
2nd Generation
Privatizations
Meters/Valves
Pipes/Pumps
Private Sector
Filters/Membranes
NetworkFocused
In-point/Out-point Focused
Operating Partners
Knowledge Partners
Political Connections
Industry Connections
Patience
Sense of Urgency
Development Mentality
Transaction Mindset
Critical Success Factors
To achieve sustainability
economically, financially,
environmentally, socially, and
politically- reforms must be designed
so as to minimize the need for
revisions.
(Complex systems approach)
globalisation.
Shifting responsibilities for
governments.
Restructuring and liberalisation of
water markets.
The emerging information technology
revolution.
Greater public participation in
decision-making.
Participatory Globalisation
Good governance. Political
stability, an impartial and
independent legal system,
transparency of government
regulations and open access
to information.
Promote Dialogue
Among Key Stakeholders
Politicians and their patrons.
Business interests.
Current and potential water consumers.
Water companies.
Financial sector.
Environmental groups
Strategies to Overcome
Threats to Sustainability
Prospective winners and losers.
Compensation shemes.
Empowerment of beneficiaries.
Public information campaigns.
Political support.
Constitutional environment.
Incentive structures.
Capacity Development
Must be an explicit part of any
successful strategy to use
water as an instrument of
sustainable development.
Capacity development is a
continuous process. This is one of
many reasons that development
assistance should move away
from short-term projects to
longer-term programmatic
support.