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Received 28 June 2005; received in revised form 16 November 2006; accepted 25 January 2007
Available online 30 April 2007
Abstract
The accurate estimation of the predicted re-entry time of decaying space debris objects is very important for proper planning
of mitigation strategies and hazard assessment. This paper highlights the implementation strategies adopted for the online reentry prediction using Kalman lter approach with constant gains with the states being the semi-major axis, eccentricity and
ballistic coefcient and using the measurements of the apogee height and perigee height derived from the Two Line Elements
provided by agencies like USSPACECOM. Only a very simple model is utilised for the orbit propagation and a basic feature
of the present approach is that any unmodellable state and measurement errors can be accounted for by adjusting the Kalman
gains which are chosen based on a suitable cost function. In this paper we provide the details of validating this approach by
utilising three re-entries of debris objects, namely, US Sat. No. 25947, SROSS-C2 Satellite and COSMOS 1043 rocket body.
These three objects re-entered the Earths atmosphere on 4th March 2000, 12th July 2001 and 19th January 2002, respectively.
2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
The accurate estimation of the nal orbital characteristics of decaying objects is of considerable importance
for predicting the re-entry time to plan mitigation strategies and hazard assessment. Space debris studies [1,2]
demand assessment of orbital life times of a large number of objects resulting from on-orbit fragmentation or
collision. The usual database available for the re-entry
time or the orbital lifetime prediction of large debris objects is the set of Two Line Elements (TLEs) provided by
the agencies like USSPACECOM [3]. The information
Corresponding author. Fax: +91 471 270 4134.
832
Nomenclature
a
A/m
B
B
CD
e
ha
hp
H
J
K
N
P0
Q
R
R
t
semi-major axis in km
area to mass ratio
ballistic coefcient (=CD A/m)
drag term in TLE data, related to B
non-dimensional drag coefcient
eccentricity
apogee height
perigee height
measurement matrix
normalised innovation cost function
Kalman gain matrix
number of measurements
initial state covariance
process noise covariance
measurement noise covariance
innovation covariance
time
v
w
X
Z
measurement noise
process noise
state vector
measurement vector
Greek letters
innovation
density
state transition matrix
Superscripts
T
1
Subscripts
0
k
initial condition
discrete time index
body by comparing the observed re-entry with the predicted re-entry. These objects re-entered the Earths atmosphere on 4th March 2000, 12th July 2001 and 19th
January 2002, respectively.
2. Filter world scenario: state equations
The state equations governing the variables (a, e, B),
are
ak = ak1 + ak1 + w1
= ak1 + 1 (ak1 , ek1 )Bk1 + w1 ,
(1)
ek = ek1 + ek1 + w2
= ek1 + 2 (ak1 , ek1 )Bk1 + w2 ,
Bk = Bk1 + w3 ,
(2)
(3)
and
(h
p )k = ak (1 ek ).
(4)
(5)
(6)
+
ha
ha
k11 k12
ha h a
h+ h
.
(7)
p = p + k21 k22
hp h
p k
+
k31 k32
B k
B k
The superscript (+) corresponds to the updated values,
the superscript () for the predicted values and sufx
k denotes the time instant.
4. Adaptive Kalman ltering approach with time
varying gains
Before applying the constant Kalman gain approach
extensive studies have been conducted using the adaptive technique. It turned out that generally after a transient the Kalman gain matrix elements tend to constant
values. This observation provides a possible approach
in which instead of tuning the usual Kalman lter statistics for the initial state, process and measurement noise
covariances P0 , Q and R, a smaller number of Kalman
gain elements can be worked out. A good statistical consistency of the results from the adaptive technique and
the constant Kalman gain approach provided the condence in the latter approach.
Assuming that the measurements are available at N
discrete time instants, the normalised innovation cost
833
(9)
(10)
N
1
rk ,
N
k=1
R =
1
[(rk r )(rk r )T ].
N 1
(11)
k=1
=
Q
1
[(qk q)(q
k q)
T ],
N 1
(12)
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where
rk = Zk Hk X k1 ,
qk = X k X k1
(13)
Parameter
Values
Population size
Bit length
Probability of cross over
Probability of mutation
Number of generations for convergence
Alternate tolerance for convergence: change in J
between generations
100
20
0.90
0.05
50
0.0001
835
836
Fig. 5. The B and cost J for prediction with optimal gains (Sat. No.
25947).
837
838
r
=0
r3
,
2
|r| 2a
where the dot () denotes the scalar product.
Suppose now that the orbit is perturbed by a force f
per unit mass, so that
r +
r
= f.
r3
2
1 + e cos E 1/2
0
1 e cos E
where x = ae.
Expanding the above in a power series of e cos(E)
(for e < 0.2), we obtain modied Bessel functions Jj
of the rst kind of order j, dened as
2
1
cos(j ) exp(c cos()) d.
Jj (c) =
2 0
Hence utilising the modied Bessel functions and a
simple model for air density, assuming the density
depends solely on the distance r from the Earths centre and varies exponentially with r, we get the rate of
change over one revolution in the elements due only to
drag as
arev = 2a 2 p
3e2
(J0 + J2 )
J0 + 2eJ 1 +
expc
3
+ (3J1 + J3 ) + O(e4 )
4
erev
= 2ap
e
e2
J1 + (J0 + J2 ) (5J1 + J3 )
2
8
expc ,
e3
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