Constant Gain Kalman Filter

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Constant Gain Kalman Filter

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of re-entry of risk objects

A.K. Anilkumara, , M.R. Ananthasayanamb , P.V. Subba Raoc

a Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre, Indian Space Research Organization, Trivandrum 695 022, India

b Department of Aerospace Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560 012, India

c Applied Mathematics Division, Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre, Indian Space Research Organization, Trivandrum 695 022, India

Received 28 June 2005; received in revised form 16 November 2006; accepted 25 January 2007

Available online 30 April 2007

Abstract

The accurate estimation of the predicted re-entry time of decaying space debris objects is very important for proper planning

of mitigation strategies and hazard assessment. This paper highlights the implementation strategies adopted for the online reentry prediction using Kalman lter approach with constant gains with the states being the semi-major axis, eccentricity and

ballistic coefcient and using the measurements of the apogee height and perigee height derived from the Two Line Elements

provided by agencies like USSPACECOM. Only a very simple model is utilised for the orbit propagation and a basic feature

of the present approach is that any unmodellable state and measurement errors can be accounted for by adjusting the Kalman

gains which are chosen based on a suitable cost function. In this paper we provide the details of validating this approach by

utilising three re-entries of debris objects, namely, US Sat. No. 25947, SROSS-C2 Satellite and COSMOS 1043 rocket body.

These three objects re-entered the Earths atmosphere on 4th March 2000, 12th July 2001 and 19th January 2002, respectively.

2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

The accurate estimation of the nal orbital characteristics of decaying objects is of considerable importance

for predicting the re-entry time to plan mitigation strategies and hazard assessment. Space debris studies [1,2]

demand assessment of orbital life times of a large number of objects resulting from on-orbit fragmentation or

collision. The usual database available for the re-entry

time or the orbital lifetime prediction of large debris objects is the set of Two Line Elements (TLEs) provided by

the agencies like USSPACECOM [3]. The information

Corresponding author. Fax: +91 471 270 4134.

sayanam@aero.iisc.ernet.in (M.R. Ananthasayanam),

pulipakasrao@yahoo.co.in (P.V. Subba Rao).

0094-5765/$ - see front matter 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

doi:10.1016/j.actaastro.2007.01.063

parameters together with rate of mean motion decay

and an equivalent ballistic coefcient B . The physical

parameters of the objects like mass, area of cross section, shape and dimensions are not accurately available

and further any modelling of the atmosphere in which

the objects decay is also uncertain and variable. Also,

due to the tumbling of the bodies and the complex

gassurface molecular interaction the changing ballistic coefcient B further complicates the prediction of

re-entry time.

The orbital propagator utilised in this study is a very

simple model [4,5], as provided in Appendix A, which

accounts for only the atmospheric drag effect on the

orbital decay of the object. This model estimates only

the semi-major axis and eccentricity decay in one revolution by considering only constant scale height during

832

Nomenclature

a

A/m

B

B

CD

e

ha

hp

H

J

K

N

P0

Q

R

R

t

semi-major axis in km

area to mass ratio

ballistic coefcient (=CD A/m)

drag term in TLE data, related to B

non-dimensional drag coefcient

eccentricity

apogee height

perigee height

measurement matrix

normalised innovation cost function

Kalman gain matrix

number of measurements

initial state covariance

process noise covariance

measurement noise covariance

innovation covariance

time

[6] is utilised to demonstrate the effectiveness of the

proposed approach. However, more sophisticated orbit

propagators with high delity atmospheric models like

MSIS-86 [7] can be implemented with the present procedure to make the re-entry prediction more accurate

for high end users.

Though the Inter Agency Debris Co-ordination Committee (IADC) conducts many re-entry campaigns the

procedures that have been adopted by the various groups

are not available in the open literature. The present technique for the re-entry prediction uses the Kalman lter approach with constant gains [1,8]. Gelb [9] and

Sugiyama [10] consider constant gain Kalman lter approaches but their method of tuning the desired lter

parameters is manual as against the present rational procedure based on a suitable normalised innovation cost

function as in Anilkumar et al. [11].

In the present problem the lter states are the semimajor axis, eccentricity and the ballistic coefcient (B =

CD A/m) denoted by (a, e, B), and the measurements

are the apogee height and perigee height (equivalent

to semi-major axis and eccentricity) derived from the

TLEs provided by agencies like USSPACECOM. The

constant Kalman gains as chosen in the present procedure are able to account for both the unmodelled and

unmodellable state and measurement errors. In this paper we validate our present approach based on three

typical re-entries of debris objects, namely, US Sat. No.

25947, SROSS-C2 Satellite and COSMOS 1043 rocket

v

w

X

Z

measurement noise

process noise

state vector

measurement vector

Greek letters

innovation

density

state transition matrix

Superscripts

T

1

value after update

transpose of a matrix

inverse of a matrix

Subscripts

0

k

initial condition

discrete time index

body by comparing the observed re-entry with the predicted re-entry. These objects re-entered the Earths atmosphere on 4th March 2000, 12th July 2001 and 19th

January 2002, respectively.

2. Filter world scenario: state equations

The state equations governing the variables (a, e, B),

are

ak = ak1 + ak1 + w1

= ak1 + 1 (ak1 , ek1 )Bk1 + w1 ,

(1)

ek = ek1 + ek1 + w2

= ek1 + 2 (ak1 , ek1 )Bk1 + w2 ,

Bk = Bk1 + w3 ,

(2)

(3)

functional forms for 1 and 2 are the expressions given

in King-Hele [4] which depend on a, e and B. The sufx

k denotes the time instant. The detailed expressions

for 1 and 2 are provided in Appendix A.

3. Filter world scenario: measurement equations

The measurements are available in terms of the orbital

parameters a and e, in the tracked TLEs. But in the

lter the predicted apogee and perigee heights in terms

of the above are

(h

a )k = ak (1 + ek )

and

(h

p )k = ak (1 ek ).

(4)

(ha )k = (h

a )k + v 1

and

(hp )k = (h

p )k + v 2 ,

(5)

in apogee height and perigee height. Since no information is available regarding the characteristics of the

above measurement noises in apogee height and perigee

height values derived from the mean motion and eccentricity in TLE sets, we assume them to be white Gaussian distribution represented by

[v1 , v2 ]T N(0, R)

(6)

The predicted values of the apogee and perigee

heights and the ballistic coefcient useful in the state

equations are updated by utilising the measured values

of the above heights as

+

ha

ha

k11 k12

ha h a

h+ h

.

(7)

p = p + k21 k22

hp h

p k

+

k31 k32

B k

B k

The superscript (+) corresponds to the updated values,

the superscript () for the predicted values and sufx

k denotes the time instant.

4. Adaptive Kalman ltering approach with time

varying gains

Before applying the constant Kalman gain approach

extensive studies have been conducted using the adaptive technique. It turned out that generally after a transient the Kalman gain matrix elements tend to constant

values. This observation provides a possible approach

in which instead of tuning the usual Kalman lter statistics for the initial state, process and measurement noise

covariances P0 , Q and R, a smaller number of Kalman

gain elements can be worked out. A good statistical consistency of the results from the adaptive technique and

the constant Kalman gain approach provided the condence in the latter approach.

Assuming that the measurements are available at N

discrete time instants, the normalised innovation cost

833

by Sorenson [12] is dened as in [13,14]

J = (1/N )

Tk [HPHT + R]1 k

= (1/N )

Tk [R]1 k,

(8)

where the innovation k = (measurementmodel

output), and R is the covariance matrix of the innovation written as HPHT +R, where H is the measurement

matrix, relating the state to the measurement as

Z = HX.

(9)

noise covariance matrix. Though there are many techniques for tuning the lter statistics, the heuristic approach of Myers and Tapley for Q and R [15] and of

Gemson and Ananthasayanam [14] for P0 is perhaps

the simplest. In general, R varies as a function of time

depending on the choice of P0 , Q and R.

Presently, it was found to be adequate to obtain P0 by

utilising the deviations of the assumed initial conditions

of the states (a, e) with those obtained from the rst

TLE set under consideration and for the state B, the

deviation of initially assumed B0 with that of the derived

value of B from B is used. The values of B are B are

related as

B = (ref /2)B,

(10)

altitude.

However, for Q and R we have utilised the heuristic

estimators of Myers and Tapley [15]. These estimators

are constructed from the statistics of the state and measurement samples generated in the Kalman lter algorithm. The present approximate structure for the noise

statistics in one lter pass through the data are given

below.

Measurement noise covariance

r =

N

1

rk ,

N

k=1

R =

1

[(rk r )(rk r )T ].

N 1

(11)

k=1

N

1

q =

qk ,

N

k=1

=

Q

1

[(qk q)(q

k q)

T ],

N 1

(12)

834

Table 1

Parameters utilised in the implementation of GA for the re-entry

problem

where

rk = Zk Hk X k1 ,

qk = X k X k1

(13)

transition matrix, H is the measurement matrix, X and

X are, respectively, the predicted and updated state

estimates. Further details of iteratively obtaining all

the lter statistics are available in Gemson and Ananthasayanam [14].

Parameter

Values

Population size

Bit length

Probability of cross over

Probability of mutation

Number of generations for convergence

Alternate tolerance for convergence: change in J

between generations

100

20

0.90

0.05

50

0.0001

Generally after the initial transients the Kalman Gain

matrix tends to a constant value as has been noticed

in the rendezvous and docking [16], evolution and expansion of the space debris scenario [11] problems, it

was also noticed in the present case as well. These constant gains can be obtained by making the above normalised innovation cost function equal to the number

of measurements in the present algorithm to handle the

re-entry problem. Further, it is assumed that the above

R is a constant as in [17]. Thus, the R can be estimated

similar to the estimation of the pure measurement noise

only as is the case in the Method of Maximum Likelihood Estimation [17]. For this purpose we have utilised

the Genetic Algorithm [18,19] in the present work.

There could be slight differences in the gain values

obtained from the adaptive and the constant gain approaches due to the relative periods of transients and

the steady state conditions. The advantage of the constant Kalman gain approach based on utilising the cost

function J is that one need not propagate the covariance

equations at all, thus enormously reducing the computational load.

6. Genetic algorithm

The steps to implement the genetic algorithm [18,19]

are as follows.

Step 1: Choose a suitable coding to represent the

unknown parameters in the problem.

Step 2: Select the criteria for Reproduction (Mating

pool generation)/Cross Over/Mutation. Input the initial

population size, probabilities of cross over and mutation, search domain of the variables, termination criteria

(TC) or Maximum allowable iterations (Tmax ).

Step 3: Set T = 0.

Step 4: Evaluate each string of the population for

tness J.

Step 5: If T > Tmax or satises TC: terminate perform

reproduction, cross over, mutation on the population.

Step 7: T = T + 1, go to step 5.

Table 1 provides the parameter values for the present

study arrived after some trials.

7. Performance of the algorithm in different case

studies

This section provides the results obtained by the

present algorithm for three different re-entry objects.

7.1. Case study with US Sat. No. 25947, Soyuz

The Sat. No. 25947, with international designation

1999-058E, is a rocket body (Starsem SoyuzIkar third

stage, block 1 of Soyuz 11A511 U launcher), launched

on 18th October 1999. Its mass is about 2300 kg and is

nearly cylindrical in shape, with end domes, of 2.7 m

diameter and 8.1 m long. A set of 72 orbital elements

was made available for re-entry prediction between 2nd

February and 3rd March 2000. The actual re-entry of

this body occurred on 4th March 2000 at 5 h 50 min,

64.243 days calculated from 1st January 2000.

In all the prediction studies, the object was assumed

to re-enter the Earths atmosphere when its semi-major

axis is below 120 km above the Earth. This is because

diffusive equilibrium predominates above 120 km with

signicant variations in the atmospheric properties with

solar, magnetic activity and local time [20].

Starting from the 22nd TLE set, the present algorithm

is utilised for the prediction of the re-entry time. The

present algorithm utilises six constant Kalman gains

two each for the three states, namely, apogee height,

perigee height and ballistic coefcient with respect to

the apogee and perigee height measurements. An important parameter in this implementation is the initial

assumed value of the ballistic coefcient (B0 ).

Starting with different B0 values, the performance of

the algorithm is provided in Fig. 1 by considering a set

25947).

No. 25947).

is clear that the value 0.040 as B0 provides the minimum

variance in the re-entry prediction time with respect to

the TLEs.

Fig. 2 provides the ballistic coefcient update in each

of the above cases as the available TLE set numbers

increase. As already discussed, the ballistic coefcient

as a state gets updated online. This is to be expected

since starting from an initial value the lter estimates

are improved, and also it accounts for the effect of tumbling motion, and with varying gassurface interaction.

Also, it may be noted that the model utilised here for

the propagation of the orbital characteristics is a very

simple one, which considers only the atmospheric drag

835

No. 25947).

The uncertainty in such an environmental model is also

contained in the predicted ballistic coefcient. Fig. 2

clearly brings out the robustness of the present constant

Kalman gain approach though beginning with different

values of B0 the ballistic coefcients seem to converge

towards a single value after ltering through some TLE

measurements.

The procedure for xing the approximate B0 can be

extended to obtain the set of constant Kalman gains as

well. Fig. 3 provides the performance of the algorithm

with different sets of Kalman gains. This gure also

indicates very subtly the robustness of the lter performance in terms of different sets of constant Kalman

gains. Such a variation of the Kalman lter statistics

would have led to much larger performance variations.

A careful study of the normalised innovation cost function for each set provided a set of constant gains as 0.6,

0.2, 0.2, 0.6, 0.00014 and 0.0001, as just about the best

possible choice. Hence, a nal prediction is made on

the re-entry of Sat. No. 25947 with the above Kalman

gains and with B0 equal to 0.04. A graphical representation of this nal prediction is provided in Fig. 4 and

the other details of the results are as given below.

Near optimal B0 = 0.040.

Actual re-entry

= 64.243 days from 1st January 2000

= 4th March 2000 at 5 h 50 min .

Near optimal Kalman gains, K

= [k11 k12 k21 k22 k31 k32]

= [0.6 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.00014 0.0001].

836

gains (Sat. No. 25947).

Fig. 5. The B and cost J for prediction with optimal gains (Sat. No.

25947).

= 64.3257 days from 1st January 2000

= 4th March 2000 at 7 h 35 min .

The prediction depends on the epoch at which the

last TLE is available at which the re-entry is predicted.

In principle, the optimal gains can be found out as and

when the data are available. The present approach is

exercised from TLE set number 22 (about 12 days prior

to actual re-entry) to the last available TLE by predicting

the re-entry. The summary of the results is

mean prediction

= 64.2323 days from 1st January 2000

= 4th March 2000 at 5 h 35 min ;

RSS error on prediction from actual = 1 h 51 min;

standard deviation on prediction = 2 h 09 min.

Further the noise in the measurements and the states

are estimated using the adaptive procedure outlined

above based on the cost function J. The ballistic coefcient estimated sequentially and the corresponding

cost J are provided in Fig. 5. The Fig. 6 brings out

the estimated measurement noise levels by adaptive

estimation of the noises. The estimated process noise

values for the three states namely the semi-major axis,

eccentricity and the ballistic coefcient are given in

Fig. 7. The Fig. 8 provides the measurement updates

with the observations in the present approach.

estimates in apogee and perigee heights from the adaptive ltering

technique.

algorithm populations

The statistical behaviour of the constant gains, tuned

through genetic algorithm, was also studied. It is found

that even after 100 iterations the populations have not

converged close to a single set but there was a scatter.

But the dispersion band of the parameters had narrowed

down as the iteration progresses.

837

were available for the present analysis.

Starting from the second TLE set, the present algorithm is utilised for prediction of the re-entry time. As

in the case of Sat. No. 25947, here also a detailed study

was carried out on the sensitivities of B0 parameter and

the Kalman gains. The details of the results are as given

below.

Near optimal B0 = 0.014.

Actual re-entry

= 193.129 days from 1st January 2001

= 12th July 2001 at 3 h 06 min .

Near optimal Kalman gains, K

= [k11 k12 k21 k22 k31 k32]

= [0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.0006 0.0006].

Fig. 7. Sat. No. 25947 re-entry prediction: process noise estimates

in a, e and B from the adaptive ltering technique.

= 193.1488 days from 1st January 2001

= 12th July 2001 at 3 h 36 min .

7.3. Case study with COSMOS 1043 object

perigee heights from the constant gain approach.

Sat. No. 23099 is Indias SROSS-C2 Satellite (international designation 1994-027A) launched on 4th May

1994 initially into an orbit of 430 620 km size at

nearly 46 inclination. Its weight is about 113 kg and

it is cylindrical in shape with a diameter of 0.32 m and

length of 0.86 m. It is understood that its re-entry has

occurred on 12th July 2001 at 3 h 6 min193.129 days

1043 R (USSPACECOM Catalog No. 11056), started

on 10th January 2002. The object was of cylindrical

shape (diameter 2.6 m, length 3.0 m) having a dry mass

of 1400 kg. The COSPAR ID No. of this rocket body is

1978-094B. It deployed its payload (COSMOS 1043)

into an initial orbit of 622 km 635 km at 81.2 inclination on 10th October 1978. Fifty TLE sets for this object were available for ofine predictions, which were

downloaded from the Internet.

As in the earlier cases, the present algorithm is

utilised for prediction of the re-entry time. A complete

analysis was made on the sensitivities of B0 parameter

and the Kalman gains. The details of the results are as

given below.

Near optimal B0 = 0.010.

Actual re-entry

= 19.923 days from 1st January 2002

= 19th January 2002 at 22 h 09 min .

Near optimal Kalman gains, K

= [k11 k12 k21 k22 k31 k32]

= [0.6 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.0004 0.0004].

838

= 19.942 days from 1st January 2002

= 19th January 2002 at 22 h 35 min.

8. Conclusions

A novel approach by utilising the Kalman lter formalism with constant gains for an efcient online prediction of the re-entry time of space objects has been

presented. Illustrative examples, which show the efciency of the proposed methodology with actual reentries of three space objects, are also provided. This

methodology utilised only a mean atmosphere and a

simple propagator considering only atmospheric drag

effects. In particular, even the atmosphere characteristics as in the latest MSIS-86 model [7] can also be used.

However, the robustness of the constant gains have the

ability to handle this mismatch as well, just as the inaccuracies in modelling B, as well as both the unmodelled

and unmodellable state and measurement noise characteristics.

Appendix A

A.1. Basic equations of orbital decay due to air drag

Consider an object S moving due to an attractive

force which varies inversely with the square of the distance r from the centre of attraction. If the position vector of the particle relative to the centre of attraction is

r, we have

r +

r

=0

r3

h = (p)1/2 n,

where n is the unit vector perpendicular to the orbit

plane and p is the semi-latus rectum dened as

p = a(1 e2 ) = h/2 .

The energy equation is

1

1

1

r r =

,

2

|r| 2a

where the dot () denotes the scalar product.

Suppose now that the orbit is perturbed by a force f

per unit mass, so that

r +

r

= f.

r3

differentiating the energy equations and introducing the

drag forces as the perturbation force f, we obtain following King-Hele [4]:

2

(1 + e cos E)3/2

2

dE

a = a

(1 e cos E)1/2

0

and

x = a

2

2

1 + e cos E 1/2

0

1 e cos E

where x = ae.

Expanding the above in a power series of e cos(E)

(for e < 0.2), we obtain modied Bessel functions Jj

of the rst kind of order j, dened as

2

1

cos(j ) exp(c cos()) d.

Jj (c) =

2 0

Hence utilising the modied Bessel functions and a

simple model for air density, assuming the density

depends solely on the distance r from the Earths centre and varies exponentially with r, we get the rate of

change over one revolution in the elements due only to

drag as

arev = 2a 2 p

3e2

(J0 + J2 )

J0 + 2eJ 1 +

expc

3

+ (3J1 + J3 ) + O(e4 )

4

erev

= 2ap

e

e2

J1 + (J0 + J2 ) (5J1 + J3 )

2

8

expc ,

e3

16

where p is the density at perigee, c = ae/H , H

is the density scale height, = (QC D )A/m, Q the

factor which includes the rotation of the atmosphere

(0.9 < Q < 1.1), m the mass of the satellite, Jj the

modied Bessel function of rst kind of order j , in all

cases having argument c, CD the drag coefcient usually taken as 2.2, and A the effective reference area.

Hence at kth revolution

ak = ak1 + ak1 ,

ek = ek1 + ek1 ,

where aj , ej stands for semi-major axis and eccentricity

at time instant tj , j = k 1, k.

atmosphere

The model of the atmosphere used here assumes

a spherically symmetrical distribution of particles in

which the density varies exponentially according to

(h h0 )

= 0 exp

,

H

where h is the height above the surface of the Earth, 0

the density at height h0 , and H the scale height.

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