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Brenda

Santoyo
MATH 1040
Skittles Term Project Part II
April 20, 2016

Confidence Interval Estimates

A confidence interval is a range of values that specify the probability of a value being in that
spectrum. Confidence intervals are used to find that specific population parameter within that
range and a margin of error is created to determine how far from the parameter the original
estimate can be from. Margins of error are helpful in targeting how close we can place our
confidence, because we cannot be 100% certain of our probability. These margins of error will
vary depending on how confident we can be within our given parameters.

1) Construct a 99% confidence interval estimate for the true proportion of green candies.

n = 1639
x = 291

291
= =
= .178

1639

1 - .99 = .01/2 = .005 InvNorm (.005) = -2.58
= 2.58
. 178 (1 .178)

1639
.178 (-.024) < p < .178 + (-.024) =

.154 < p < .202

We are 99% confident that the true proportion of green candies is between .154 and .202.

2) Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate for the true mean number of candies per bag.
= 2.58


E = .594
n = 27
= 60.7
1 - .95 =.05/2 = .025
= 2.056

= 60.7 - .594 < < 60.7 + .594


60.106 < <61.294
60.11 < < 61.29

We are 95% confident that the true mean number of candies per bag is between 60.11 and
61.29.

3) Construct a 98% confidence interval estimate for the standard deviation of the number of
candies per bag.


n = 27
s = 1.5

27 1 (1.5)7
27 1 (1.5)7
<<

45.642
12.198

1.13 < < 2.19 or (1.13, 2.19)

We are 98% confident that the standard deviation of the number of candies per bag is
between 1.13 and 2.19 Skittles.

For constructing a specific confidence interval for the true proportion of green candies, I found
that 99% of all bags of Skittles will have between 15.4 20.2 % of green candies. This is an
interesting result as my own sample had 13 out of 61 green candies or 21.3 %. This would
potentially mean that my own sample is not represented in the 99% confidence interval.

For constructing a specific confidence interval for the true mean number of candies per bag, I
found that 95% of Skittles bags will have anywhere between 60 to 62 candies. These results are
reached, if counting to the nearest whole number or candy. Once again, these results are
conclusive in determining the correct mean number of skittles per bag as the most common
number was 61. The second most common number of candies per bag was 59 and this number
would potentially be in the other 5% outside of the confidence interval estimate.

For constructing a specific confidence interval for the standard deviation of the number of
candies per bag, I found that 98% of Skittles bags will have a deviation of 1 to 2 candies. These
results are reached, if counting to the nearest whole number or candy. I do see that many of
the bags in our sample have anywhere between 58 to 64 candies. With the mean being
between 60 and 62 total candies, it does make sense to see 1 to 2 candies that deviate from it.

Hypothesis Tests

Hypothesis testing is simply used to make a more educated estimate or decision about the
value of a population parameter. Hypothesis tests are based off of the sample data provided. A
hypothesis test can determine whether a hypothesis is potentially valid or invalid. Since a
hypothesis test can never fully prove a hypothesis, one can either reject it or fail to reject it.

1) Use a .05 significance level to test that 20% of all skittles are purple.


H0: P = .20 (Claim)
HA: P .20

n = 1639
= .05
/2 = .025 InvNorm (.025) = 1.96
p = .2007





=

. 2007 .20
_______________

. 20 (1 .20)
1639


z = .0708
p = .94

Fail to reject H0. There is not sufficient evidence to reject the claim that 20% of all skittles are
purple.

2) Use a 0.01 significance level to test the claim that the mean number of candies in a bag of
Skittles is 62.

H0: = 62 (claim)
H1: 62

n = 60.7
s = 1.5 or 1.489
df = n 1
27 1 = 26 degrees of freedom

60.7 62
=
| = 3.46
1.489
27


Reject the H0. There is sufficient evidence to reject the claim that the mean number of candies
is 62.

With a .05 significance level, I tested whether 20% of all skittles are purple. I found that I was
unable to reject the null hypothesis and original claim that p = .20. There is simply not enough
evidence to prove otherwise and I cannot claim with complete confidence that this hypothesis
is true. Within our own sample, I found that 329 out of 1639 candies were purple, which
amounts to 20% of our total number of candies. This finding may prove why we were unable to
reject this hypothesis.

With a .01 significance level, I tested the claim that the mean number of candies per bag was
62. I found that I was able to reject the original claim as well as the null hypothesis. Even if the
mean ranges between 60 and 62 candies I cannot claim with certainty that every bag will
amount to 62 candies. Within our own sample, I found that our class had a mean of 61 candies
per bag. This further proves why this hypothesis was rejected originally rejected.

Reflection

In Chapter 7-3, we learned about certain requirements that needed to be met to properly
conduct an interval estimate. Either 1) the population is normally distributed or 2) the sample
size must be greater than 30. In Chapter 8-3, we learned about certain requirements that
needed to be met to properly conduct hypothesis tests. To test a claim about a population
proportion, 1) the sample observations must be simple random samples, 2) it must be a
binomial distribution, 3) there must be at least 5 successes and 5 failures (np 5 and nq 5).

Confidence Intervals

1) For the proportion confidence interval estimate, the population is normally distributed
as there are no outliers and the previous histogram has a shape that is not far from a
normal distribution.

2) For the mean confidence interval estimate, the sample size is not greater than 30.
Additionally, there is not a set determination as to whether the number of candies per
each bag is normally distributed.

3) For the standard deviation confidence interval estimate, once again, the number of
candies in each bag is normally distributed.
Hypothesis Tests
1) For the proportion hypothesis test, the sample observations were all simple random
samples in their selection and distribution. Additionally, the conditions for a binomial
distribution were met as well. There is a fixed number of independent trials (27) with
two categories for this test, either the candies are purple or they are not. The
requirements np5 and nq5 are equally satisfied with n=27, p=0.20, and q=0.80. We
get np=(27)(0.20) = 5.4, which is greater than 5 and (27)(0.80) = 21.6, which is also
greater than 5.
2) For the mean hypothesis test, the sample observations were all simple random samples
as well. I am uncertain as to whether the conditions for binomial distribution were met:
there were a fixed number of independent trials (27). However, I couldnt determine a
constant probability for each trial, and without a probability I couldnt make the
determination of there being 5 successes and 5 failures.


Two types of errors that can occur are Type I: characterized as the rejection of a true null
hypothesis when the result should have been fail to reject or Type II: characterized as the
failure to reject a false null hypothesis. A Type I error can be considered as a false positive and a
Type II error can be considered as a false negative. Other possible errors include using different
sized bags of Skittles candy, using a small sample size, or even using different types of Skittles
candy. The sampling method can be improved by ensuring that the bags of candy come from
the same factory, supplier or retailer. There is a possibility that the number may vary from store
to store or from factory to factory. Potential questions to ask: are there variations in the
number of candies that a factory produces or is there an issue with creating partial candies at
any given factory? Conducting multiple experiments to ensure that the information drawn from
this research can be replicated would help improve the sampling method as well.

From this statistical research, I have concluded that between 15.4 20.2 % of all Skittles in our
sample are green. There are anywhere between 60.11 to 61.29 candies in each bag of Skittles. If
we want to ignore partial pieces of candy, there are anywhere between 60 and 61 whole
candies in each bag of the original Skittles. The mean number of Skittles per bag deviates from
1.13 to 2.19 or 1 to 2 candies. Potentially 20% of all candies in our sample are purple Skittles.
Plus, our mean number of candies per bag is not equal to 62 Skittles, but is equal to 61.

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