Академический Документы
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July 7, 2015
Takuya Yamazaki
Director, Electricity Market Division
Director for Electricity Market Reform
Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ANRE)
DC Direct Current,
FC Frequency Conversion
Hokkaido
[2012]
5.52 GW
Chugoku
16.66 GW
[2012]
10.85 GW
5.57
GW
Kyushu
[2012]
15.21 GW
Okinawa
5.57
GW
Kansai
[2012]
26.82 GW
2.4
GW
DC
Tie line
1.4GW
Shikoku
[2012]
5.26 GW
Hokuriku
[2012]
5.26 GW
5.57
GW
DC
Tie line
0.6GW
Tohoku
[2012]
13.72 GW
BTB
0.3GW
Chubu
[2012]
24.78 GW
12.62GW
Tokyo
[2012]
50.78 GW
FC
1.2GW
24
Increased
25.2%
22
25.51
22.33
21.26
20
20.37
18
18.86
17.53
Increased
38.2
16
15.73
14.59
14
For
Households
12
7
1995
8
1996
9
1997
10
1998
11
1999
12
2000
For
Industry
13.65
13
2001
14
2002
15
2003
16
2004
17
2005
18
2006
19
2007
20
2008
21
2009
22
2010
23
2011
24
2012
25
2013
26
2014
Fiscal year
[Source] Created based on the Electricity Demand Report (Federation of Electric Power Companies in Japan) and the materials
concerning the power companies final settlement reports, etc.
1,270
1,397
1,304
1,354
1,390
1,408
1200
1000
800
600
400
+65
+112
+110
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
200
0
FY1990
FY2005
FY2010
Hokkaido
OCCTO
JEPX
(Power Exchange)
16.66GW
Generation
5.57GW
Kyushu
Kansai
Generation
TDSO
TDSO
Retail
Retail
2.4GW
Generation
Generation
TDSO
TDSO
Retail
Retail
Generation
TDSO
(Coordination of TDSOs )
Retail
Hokuriku
Generation
Chugoku
50Hz
TDSO
5.57GW
DC Tie line
Tohoku
0.6GW
Generation
TDSO
Retail
Retail
BTB
0.3GW
5.57GW
Generation
DC Tie line
1.4GW
Chubu
12.62GW
Tokyo (TEPCO)
Generation
TDSO
TDSO
Retail
Retail
Shikoku
* DC direct current, FC frequency conversion, TDSO Transmission and Distribution System Operator
FC
1.2GW
Will be liberalized
Holding company
Competitive
Transmission/Distribution
company
Generation
company
(System operation)
Regulated
Competitive
Transmission/Distribution
company
Retail
company
(Transmission/distribution
facilities)
Competitive
Retail company
(System operation)
(Transmission/distribution
facilities)
Competitive
Regulated
Regional monopoly
Regulation on network tariff
Responsibility for maintaining frequency & providing
LR service
Code of conduct for securing neutrality
10
2nd Step
Apr. 2016
3rd Step
Apr. 2020
1st reform
Establishment of OCCTO
(The Organization for
Cross-regional
Coordination of
Transmission Operators)
New
regulatory
authority
2nd reform
Full retail
competition
Period of transitional
arrangement for retail tariff
(The government reviews
competitive situations)
Abolishment
of retail tariff
3rd reform
Legal unbundling of
T/D sector
Within 2015:Transition to new regulatory authority
11
12
ROAD AHEAD
13
Challenge
14
Renewables
9.6%
Oil 7.5%
80%
70%
Oil
10.6%
LNG
29.3%
60%
LNG
46.1%
50%
40%
Renewables
12.2%
Coal
25%
10%
Oil 3%
LNG
27%
Coal
26%
30%
20%
Renewables
22-24%
Nuclear
28.6%
Coal
31.0%
2010FY
2014FY
Nuclear
20-22%
0%
2030FY
Coal
15
Kashiwazaki Kariwa
Fukui
Output scale
500
Under review by
NRA
Decommissioning by
operator
In operation
Under suspension
1000
1000
Under construction
RES integration
G
45
About
39GW
40
3.79GW
3.1GW
PV
78.84GW
15.01GW
Wind
2.29GW
0.33GW
Hydraulic
0.66GW
0.09GW
Geothermal
0.07GW
0.01GW
Biomass
2.03GW
0.22GW
Total
87.68GW
18.76GW
(non-residential)
9%
15
10
5
0
PV
(residential)
32%
30
20
Already
installed
before
2014FY
33%
35
25
Authorized
(up to the
end of
2014FY)
2003FY 2004FY 2005FY 2006FY 2007FY 2008FY 2009FY 2010FY 2011FY 2012FY 2013FY 2014FY
Biomass
Geothemal
Hydraulic
Wind
PV
FIT
17
Policy Plan
Strengthen OCCTOs influence over 9 TSOs to promote risk/cost sharing and
coordination for more cross-regional transmission and grid reinforcement.
Prepare the scheme for neutralizing risks of nuclear investments
Review FIT system.
Introduce Capacity Mechanism
Thank you!
APPENDIX
9%
9%
10%
9%
10%
11%
11% 10%
9%
13% 12%
27%
26%
10% 10% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11%
9%
90%
80%
29% 26%
26% 21%
11%
12% 12%
14%
18%
24% 19%
70%
60%
22% 22%
50%
22%
23%
30%
20%
10%
23%
25% 26%
27%
28%
24% 26%
27% 28%
7%
7%
14%
Renewables
39%
42%
12% 13%
11%
11%
18% 15%
29% 29%
23%
40%
10% 10%
22%
24%
26%
8%
9%
14% 14%
21%
22%
25%
24%
26% 25%
25% 25%
43%
46%
Oil
LNG
Coal
25% 25%
Nuclear
25%
35% 36% 37% 34% 34% 35%
32% 32% 34%
31%
29% 29%
29% 31% 30%
27% 28% 29%
26%
26% 26%
11%
0%
2%
1% 0%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Coal
21
Year enforced
Overview
1995
2000
2005
2008
22
Hydroelectric plant
Wind farm,etc.
Generation companies
220-500kV
220-500kV
220-500kV
Contract with
retailer to sell
electricity
JEPX
Transmission/
Distribution companies
154-220kV
Primary substation
Transmission
66kV
Regional monopoly,
tariff regulation
66-154kV
Wheeling
contract
6.6kV
Distribution
100/200V
Meter
Meter
Meter
Meter
Meter
Retailers
Not necessary to
have assets
Large factory
Large building
Building
Medium factory
Small factory
Shop Household
23
N/A
9.8%
Strongly
Negative
positive
6.1%
22.7%
54.4%
Neutral
27.1%
Positive
31.7%
22%
Cannot think of
switching the retailer.
Procedures may be
troublesome.
23%
45%
37%
34%
18%
10%
18%
9%
18%
Other
3% reasons
I like the current
retailer
14%
3%
1%
24
Breakdown of 1.6%
11.17TWh
(+3.50TWh)
7.67TWh
(+2.93TWh)
4.74TWh
0.5%
FY2011
0.9%
FY2012
1.3%
Others
Breakdown of 8.1%
Forward trading
4.0%
Source: JEPX
(837.67TWh)
91.9% (12.41TWh)
(0.04TWh)
New
Forward trading
(1.10TWh)
98.4%
FY2014
FY2013
8.1%
Others
1.6%
17.3%
(0.19TWh)
4 hour-Ahead
spot trading
78.8% (0.86TWh)
25
Cross-regional competition
Avoid market separation and congestion of tie lines through OCCTOs function for
reinforcing their capacities.
Eg.
Maintain the postage stamp cost allocation scheme for network fee, even after
introducing full retail competition.
Frequency in West: 60Hz
DC Tie line
0.6GW
Chugoku
[2012] 10.85 GW
5.57GW
Kyushu
[2012] 15.21 GW
16.66GW
2.4GW
5.57GW
Kansai
[2012] 26.82 GW
DC Tie line
1.4GW
Shikoku
[2012] 5.26 GW
Hokuriku
[2012] 5.26 GW
BTB
5.57GW
Tohoku
[2012] 13.72 GW
12.62GW
0.3GW
Chubu
[2012] 24.78 GW
Tokyo
[2012] 50.78 GW
FC
1.2GW
26
make up
an estimate
Retailer A
Retailer B
consumers
apply to
switching
start to
supply
request for
consumer
information
provide for
consumer
information
TDSO A
OCCTO
Switching
Support
System
TDSO
continuously
linked
TDSO C
Retailer D
finalize to
change
wheeling
contract
Information interchanged through this system will be standardized and provided for retailer instantly.
27
- Prepare for the possible shortage of long-run capacity as a safety net for the
electricity market
28
Retailer A
Forecast the
demand as
100
Purchase the
supply same as
forecasted
demand (=100)
The demand
Increases to
110, when
accident
happens.
TDSO
Compensate
the shortage
Compensate
the shortage
Buy the
surplus
Purchase Forecast
plan for the demand
supply
Actual Actual
supply demand
Some years or
months ahead
At the actual
supply and
demand
Retailer A
Retailer B
Retailer X
29
OCCTO
All Consumers
Bid
Bid
Generation
company A
Bid
Generation
company C
Generation
company B
Retailers / Power
exchange
30
Private company
(third party)
EMS
<Peak cut / Peak shift of demand>
EV
MDMS
HES
EPCO
(transmission/distribution)
Stop/Stop-release
Change contract
Request information
Smart Meter
PV
Home electrical
appliances
Customers
Storage
31
High voltage
Low voltage
Tokyo
Chubu
2016
2016
Installation will be
completed in
2016
Installation will be
started in
2016
Installation will be
completed in
2023
2023
2024
Completed Completed
2023
2020
2022
2022
Completed
2023
2016
2016
2023
Completed
2023
2016
32
Total
FY2018
FY2019
FY2020
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
Total
480
490
510
510
520
560
570
4,550
120
650
840
820
810
800
780
730
730
720
7,000
1,900
3,200
5,700
5,700
5,700
3,300
3,300
10
1,020
1,460
1,440
1,420
1,390
1,390
1,420
1,390
150
250
250
230
230
220
190
190
1,700
1,700
240
560
610
610
610
610
610
610
610
5,070
150
310
310
310
310
310
310
310
300
2,650
800
850
850
7,280
100
100
100
1,600
30
Kyusyu
Okinawa
FY2017
530
Chugoku
Shikoku
FY2016
380
Hokuriku
Kansai
FY2015
(Thousand)
10
28,800
10,940
1,870
160
15,600
100
100
100
90
90
3,660 7,500 12,250 12,260 12,020 9,640 9,530 6,080 5,870 3,240
(Note) Except the number in the table, some smart meters will be exchanged new smart meters because of reaching maturity of the verification
90
850
90 84,610
33