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BJA Advance Access published February 4, 2015

British Journal of Anaesthesia Page 1 of 11


doi:10.1093/bja/aeu446

A Bayesian network meta-analysis on the effect of inodilatory


agents on mortality
T. Greco 1, M. G. Calabro` 1, R. D. Covello 1, M. Greco 1, L. Pasin1, A. Morelli 2, G. Landoni 1* and A. Zangrillo1
1
2

Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Via Olgettina 60, Milan 20132, Italy
Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, La Sapienza University, Rome, Italy

* Corresponding author. E-mail: landoni.giovanni@hsr.it

Editors key points

They used a network


meta-analytical method
to allow comparison of
drugs that had not
previously been directly
compared.
Of the drugs examined,
only levosimendan
appeared to reduce
mortality (compared with
placebo).

Methods. Relevant studies were independently searched in BioMedCentral, MEDLINE/PubMed,


Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of clinical trials (updated on May 1, 2014). The
criteria for inclusion were: random allocation to treatment with at least one group receiving
dobutamine, enoximone, levosimendan, or milrinone and at least another group receiving
the above inodilators or placebo, performed in cardiac surgical patients. The endpoint was
to identify differences in mortality at longest follow-up available.
Results. The 46 included trials were published between 1995 and 2014 and randomised 2647
patients. The Bayesian network meta-analysis found that only the use of levosimendan was
associated with a decrease in mortality when compared with placebo (posterior mean of
OR0.48, 95% CrI 0.28 to 0.80). The posterior distribution of the probability for each
inodilator to be the best and the worst drug showed that levosimendan is the best agent to
improve survival after cardiac surgery. The sensitivity analyses performed did not produce
different interpretative result.
Conclusion. Levosimendan seems to be the most efficacious inodilator to improve survival
in cardiac surgery.
Keywords: anaesthesia - meta-analysis; anaesthetics i.v.; cardiovascular anaesthesia; surgery
cardiovascular
Accepted for publication: 10 September 2014

Cardiac surgery is frequently complicated by low cardiac


output syndrome (LCOS); cardiogenic shock is associated
with significant morbidity and mortality.
The combination of cardiac inotropy, peripheral vasodilation and decreased after load, gained inodilators the role of
first line drugs in cardiogenic shock.1 This family encompasses
older drugs like dobutamine, the phosphodiesterase 3 (PDE-3)
inhibitors (enoximone and milrinone) and the new calcium
sensitizer levosimendan. There is no doubt that inodilators
can effectively improve haemodynamic parameters1 but
they are associated with side effects2 and some observational
trials found a significant association between inotropes
administration and increased mortality in cardiac surgery.3 5
Even if inodilators are often used in cardiac surgery and
more than 1 million cardiac surgery procedures are performed
worldwide every year, no large multicentre randomised trial
exists to document differences in mortality when using different inodilators in cardiac surgery. Most randomised controlled

trials performed on inodilators in cardiac surgery are small


and, even if mortality data is often reported, it is difficult to determine which is the best agent in terms of survival. Furthermore, most published trials compare levosimendan vs
placebo and milrinone vs placebo while it would be desirable
to have direct comparison between inodilators. Preliminary
evidence derived from meta-analyses of randomised trials,
suggests that levosimendan reduces mortality in cardiac
surgery but data are not updated, are not focused on inodilators and no attempt to grade the different inodilators was performed so far. The inclusion of indirect comparisons might in
fact add pieces of information in a setting with scarce direct
comparisons.
Our research question was to investigate which inodilator is
associated with the lowest mortality after cardiac surgery. To
achieve this aim we first identified and merged all randomised
trials ever published on any inodilator drug (levosimendan,
enoximone, milrinone and dobutamine) in adult cardiac

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The authors examined the


effect of inodilator drugs
on survival of adults
following cardiac surgery.

Background. Inodilators are commonly used in critically ill patients, but their effect on survival
has not been properly studied to date. The objective of this work was to conduct a network
meta-analysis on the effects of inodilators on survival in adult cardiac surgery patients, and
to compare and rank drugs that have not been adequately compared in head-to-head trials.

BJA
surgery that reported mortality data. We therefore performed
a Bayesian network meta-analysis of randomised trials
to grade all the inodilators in order to allow physicians to optimize cost-effectiveness analyses in their centres. A network
meta-analysis is a statistical technique for comparison of different treatments that were never properly studied through
adequately powered randomised controlled trials, but that
can be compared through a third common comparator.6 7 On
the basis of statistical inference, it is possible to identify the
superior treatment, reaching, through indirect comparison, reliable conclusions otherwise hard or impossible to achieve.

Methods

Search strategy and study selection


Relevant studies were independently searched in BioMedCentral, MEDLINE/PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Central
Register of clinical trials by two expert investigators.
Literature search, developed according to Biondi-Zoccai and
colleagues,8 were last updated in May 1, 2014 and included
the following PubMed research string: ((heart OR cardiac OR
myocard* OR coronary) AND (operatin* OR operation OR
surger*) AND (levosimendan OR simdax OR ((phosphodiesterase OR pde) AND inhibitor*) OR amrinone OR milrinone OR
enoximone OR toborinone OR dobutamine OR dobutrex))
AND (randomized controlled trial[pt] OR controlled clinical
trial[pt] OR randomized controlled trials[mh] OR random allocation[mh] OR double-blind method[mh] OR single-blind
method[mh] OR clinical trial[pt] OR clinical trials[mh] OR (clinical trial[tw] OR ((singl*[tw] OR doubl*[tw] OR trebl*[tw] OR
tripl*[tw]) AND (mask*[tw] OR blind[tw])) OR (latin square[tw])
OR placebos[mh] OR placebo*[tw] OR random*[tw] OR research
design[mh:noexp] OR comparative study[tw] OR follow-up
studies[mh] OR prospective studies[mh] OR cross-over studies[mh] OR control[tw] OR controls[tw] OR controlled[tw]
OR prospectiv*[tw] OR volunteer*[tw]) NOT (animal[mh]
NOT human[mh]) NOT (comment[pt] OR editorial[pt] OR
meta-analysis[pt] OR practice-guideline[pt] OR review[pt])).
Further hand or computerised searches involved recent
(2010 2014) international conference proceedings (Supplementary Appendix S1).

inclusion criteria were used for potentially relevant studies:


random allocation to treatment with at least one group receiving dobutamine, enoximone, levosimendan, or milrinone and
at least another group receiving dobutamine, enoximone,
levosimendan, milrinone or placebo (since patients undergoing cardiac surgery often require inotropic agents to survive,
it is often impossible to compare a drug to a placebo in this
context; most authors of the included trials treated their
patients with the best available standard treatment and then
added or not the study drug; as a consequence, placebo in
this meta-analysis was considered as placebo on top of standard treatment or as standard treatment alone). Studies had
to be performed in an adult cardiac surgery setting with no
restriction in dose and time of administration. The exclusion
criteria were duplicate publications (in this case the article
reporting the longest follow-up was abstracted), nonhuman
experimental studies, and lack of outcome (survival) data.
Two investigators independently assessed articles for inclusion
criteria and selected studies for the final analysis, with divergences finally resolved by consensus.

Data abstraction and study characteristics


Baseline, procedural and outcome data were independently
abstracted by two trained investigators, with divergences
resolved by consensus (Table 1). The following data were
extracted and collected in a spreadsheet file: author identification, year and journal of publication, study comparators, treatment sample sizes, type of surgery, longest follow-up and
mortality.
The endpoints of the present review was to identify differences in mortality at the longest follow-up available between each inodilator agent and to identify if one or more
were superior or inferior in terms of survival, using standard
meta-analyses and Bayesian network meta-analyses. When
a study had missing or incomplete data on survival we contacted all authors by e-mail, letter or both.

Internal validity and risk of bias assessment


The internal validity of each trial included in this review was
critically evaluated for bias according to The Cochrane Collaboration methods, i.e. judging the risk for selection, performance, attrition, detection and reporting biases. We evaluated
the potential source of bias by applying a rating of Yes, No
or Unclear to denote whether adequate measures were
taken to protect against each potential source of bias in each
study. The overall risk of bias was expressed as low, moderate
or high. Publication bias was assessed by visually inspecting
funnel plots.

Study selection

Statistical analysis

References obtained from database, literature searches with


cross-check of references and experts were first independently
examined on a title/abstract level by two investigators and
then, if potentially relevant, retrieved as complete articles.
No language restriction was enforced and non-English articles
were translated and included in the analyses. The following

For each trial, the proportion of deaths were analysed and


expressed as the logarithm of odds ratio (OR) and of its standard error (SE). Whenever possible we used results from
intention-to-treat population.
Each arm of the trials was classified according to its primary
treatment strategy. The primary treatment strategies of interest in

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To understand whether inodilators might influence patients


survival after adult cardiac surgery we carried out a Bayesian
network meta-analysis to compare the effect on mortality
of levosimendan, enoximone, milrinone and dobutamine.
A Bayesian network meta-analysis is a valid method of indirectly comparing drugs that did not undergo sufficient
head-to-head comparison in the original clinical trials.6 7

Greco et al.

BJA

Effect of inodilatory agents on mortality

Table 1 Description of the 46 studies included in the meta-analysis. CPB, cardiopulmonary bypass; OP, off-pump; CABG, coronary artery bypass
graft; ICU, intensive care unit; NA, not available. *Study published as abstract only
Year

Surgery

Contrast

Number of
patients

Longest follow-up

Abacilar AF9

2013

CABG

Levosimendan vs placebo on top of


standard treatment

100 vs 100

5 days

Al-Shawaf E10

2006

CABG

Levosimendan vs milrinone

14 vs 16

48 h

Alvarez J11

2005

CPB

Levosimendan vs dobutamine

15 vs 15

Hospital stay

Alvarez J12

2006

CABG, valve

Levosimendan vs dobutamine

25 vs 25

15 days

Arbeus M13

2009

CABG

Milrinone vs placebo on top of standard


treatment

22 vs 22

Hospital stay

Barisin S14

2004

OPCABG

Levosimendan vs placebo on top of


standard treatment

21 vs 10

Hospital stay

Bautin A*15

2011

NA

Levosimendan vs standard treatment

33 vs 31

Hospital stay

Baysal A16

2014

Mitral valve surgery

Levosimendan vs standard treatment

67 vs 66

30 days

Carmona MJ17

2010

NA

Milrinone vs dobutamine

10 vs 10

2 years

Couture P18

2007

CABG

Milrinone vs placebo on top of standard


treatment

25 vs 25

Hospital stay

De Hert SG19

2007

CPB

Levosimendan vs milrinone

15 vs 15

38 days

Doolan LA20

1997

CPB

Milrinone vs placebo on top of standard


treatment

15 vs 15

30 days

Ensinger H21

1999

NA

Dobutamine vs placebo on top of


standard treatment

8 vs 8

3 days

Erb J22

2014

CABG, valve surgery

Levosimendan vs placebo on top of


standard treatment

19 vs 18

6 months

Eriksson HI23

2009

CABG

Levosimendan vs placebo on top of


standard treatment

30 vs 30

33 days

Ersoy O24

2013

Valve surgery

Levosimendan vs standard treatment

10 vs 10

24 h

Feneck RO25

2001

NA

Milrinone vs dobutamine

60 vs 60

3 days

Gandham R26

2013

Mitral valve repair or


replacement

Levosimendan vs dobutamine

30 vs 30

36 h

Hachenberg T27

1997

Mitral valve repair

Enoximone vs dobutamine

10 vs 10

72 h

Hadadzadeh M28

2013

OPCABG

Milrinone vs placebo on top of standard


treatment

40 vs 40

ICU stay

Hayashida N29

1999

CABG

Milrinone vs standard treatment

12 vs 12

72 h

Husedzinovic I30

2005

OPCABG

Levosimendan vs placebo on top of


standard treatment

12 vs 13

60 min

Jarvela K31

2008

Aortic valve surgery and/or


CABG

Levosimendan vs placebo on top of


standard treatment

12 vs 12

1 year

Jebeli M32

2010

CABG

Milrinone vs placebo on top of standard


treatment

35 vs 35

Hospital stay

Jo HR33

2010

OPCABG

Milrinone vs placebo on top of standard


treatment

20 vs 20

Hospital stay

Kodali RK34

2013

OPCABG

Levosimendan vs placebo on top of


standard treatment

15 vs 15

24 h

Kwak YL35

2004

OPCABG

Milrinone vs placebo on top of standard


treatment

29 vs 33

Hospital stay

Lahtinen P36

2009

Valve or valve and CABG

Levosimendan vs placebo on top of


standard treatment

103 vs 104

Hospital stay

Lee JH37

2006

OPCABG

Milrinone vs placebo on top of standard


treatment

24 vs 26

Hospital stay

Leppikangas H38

2011

Valve and CABG

Levosimendan vs placebo on top of


standard treatment

12 vs 12

4 days

Levin R39

2008

NA

Levosimendan vs dobutamine

69 vs 68

Hospital stay

Levin R40

2012

CABG

Levosimendan vs placebo on top of


standard treatment

127 vs 125

48 h

Continued

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First author

BJA

Greco et al.

Table 1 Continued
Year

Surgery

Contrast

Number of
patients

Longest follow-up

Lilleberg J41

1998

CABG

Levosimendan vs placebo on top of


standard treatment

15 vs 8

1h

Modine T42

2005

OPCABG

Dobutamine vs standard treatment

16 vs 16

30 days

Mollhoff T43

1999

CABG

Milrinone vs placebo on top of standard


treatment

11 vs 11

Hospital stay

Nijhawan N44

1999

CPB

Levosimendan vs placebo on top of


standard treatment

12 vs 6

8h

Parviainen I45

1995

CABG

Dobutamine vs standard treatment

11 vs 11

90 min

Ristikankare A46

2012

CABG

Levosimendan vs placebo on top of


standard treatment

30 vs 30

Hospital stay

Shah B47

2014

OPCABG

Levosimendan vs placebo on top of


standard treatment

25 vs 25

30 days

Sharma P48

2013

CABG, mitral valve surgery

Levosimendan vs placebo on top of


standard treatment

20 vs 20

Hospital stay

Song JW49

2011

OPCABG

Milrinone vs placebo on top of standard


treatment

31 vs 31

Until the end of distal


anastomosis

Tritapepe L50

2006

CABG

Levosimendan vs placebo on top of


standard treatment

12 vs 12

Hospital stay

Tritapepe L51

2009

CABG

Levosimendan vs placebo on top of


standard treatment

53 vs 53

30 days

van der Maaten JM52

2007

Aortic valve replacement

Enoximone vs standard treatment

17 vs 17

18 h

this Bayesian network meta-analysis were 1) placebo, 2) levosimendan, 3) enoximone, 4) milrinone, 5) dobutamine. The pairwise
association between each treatment (also called direct estimate)
was delineated by a graphical representation of the network. In
the diagram each node represents a single anaesthetic agent
and each edge connects treatments that have been directly compared in one or more RCTs.
We performed pairwise meta-analyses to look at the direct
comparisons. In the standard meta-analyses, a magnitude
of heterogeneity between-studies was represented by the
degree of inconsistency (I 2), while uncertainty over whether
apparent heterogeneity due to the effects of chance (random
error) was expressed using p-value from Cochrane Q statistic.
The presence of effect-modifiers due heterogeneity was considered acceptable with one chi-square P-value .0.10. Mortality data from individual studies were analysed to compute
pooled OR with pertinent 95% confidence intervals (CI) by
means of the inverse of variance method with fixed effect
model in case of low statistical inconsistency (I 2 25%) or by
means of DerSimonian-Laird method with random effect
model (which better accommodates clinical and statistical variations) in case of moderate or high statistical inconsistency
(I 2 .25%). The number need to treat (NNT) was computed
for the significant associations. The robustness of the standard
meta-analysis was assessed by sequentially removing each
study from the overall dataset and reanalysing the remaining
datasets.
The Bayesian network analysis was carried out modeling the
outcome mortality with the Bayesian hierarchical model (binomial model with logit link function) using Markov chain Monte

Page 4 of 11

Carlo (MCMC) approach. Pooled ORs comparing different


inodilators were estimated from the mean of the posterior
distribution obtained with Bayesian analysis. The indirect
estimate was calculated by means of consistency equation
Log(OR)23 Log(OR)13-Log(OR)12, namely as difference from
the direct estimates having a common arm. The corresponding
95% credibility intervals (CrI) were obtained by the normal
approximation.
A credible interval is a probability interval or rather a probabilistic region around a posterior moment, and its use is
similar to a frequentist confidence interval. We carried out
the Bayesian networkmeta-analyses with both the fixed or
random effect model and we selected the better model in
terms of fit and parsimony, calculating the posterior mean of
residual deviance (Dres) and the Deviance Information Criterion
(DIC) statistics.
The consistency assumption, that means no discrepancy
between direct and indirect comparisons, was verified in the
Bayesian network analysis, by evaluating a probability .0.5 of
the difference of both the consistency and inconsistency residual
deviance. Furthermore, we compared the results obtained fitting
the consistency model, estimating only the effects between
each study treatment (levosimendan, enoximone, milrinone,
dobutamine) and the reference one (placebo) and deriving the
indirect treatment effects by consistency equation, and the inconsistency model, which provides the prior distribution for all
possible combinations of treatments.54 55
To explore the relation between log-risk of mortality and the
length of study follow-up (in days), we performed Bayesian
meta-regression analyses. Sensitivity Bayesian analysis was

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First author

BJA

Effect of inodilatory agents on mortality

Results
Description of included trials
Figure 1 shows the flowchart for the selection of randomised
trials. The references of major exclusions are available after contacting the authors. Forty-six randomised clinical trials9 53 were
included in the final analysis (Table 1). The study characteristics
of included trials are detailed in Supplementary Appendix S3.

Briefly, the 46 trials randomised 2647 patients, including 1044


(39%) patients receiving placebo, 893 (34%) receiving levosimendan, 390 (15%) receiving milrinone, 273 (10%) receiving
dobutamine, and 47 (1.8%) receiving enoximone.
Nineteen (41%) of the randomised controlled trials were at
low risk of bias while 52 and 7% were at moderate and high risk
of bias respectively, lacking important details on the method
used to generate random sequence, on allocation or on the intention to treat analyses (Supplementary Table S1).The lack of
blinding was the main bias and the main reason of low quality
for the included trials.

Quantitative data synthesis


The network configuration in Figure 2 connects treatments
that have been directly compared in one or more RCTs and
shows that almost half of the studies compared levosimendan
vs placebo.
We also performed eight simple pairwise meta-analyses
comparing each agent against each other agent (Supplementary Figures S1 and S2). Only the use of levosimendan was associated with a reduction in mortality. The reduction in mortality
was present when levosimendan was compared with placebo
(35/725 [4.8%] in the levosimendan group vs 64/698 [9.2%]
in the placebo group, OR0.54, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.83, P for
effect0.005, P for heterogeneity0.9, I 2 0%, NNT23, with
20 studies included) and when compared with dobutamine
(8/139 [5.8%] in the levosimendan group vs 18/138 [13%]
in the dobutamine group, OR0.39, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.95, P for

1512 new abstracts retrieved

1389 titles/articles not eligible for inclusion


(not relevant to the study question)

123 abstracts eligible for inclusion and


detailed assessment

77 articles excluded because of prespecified criteria:


36 studies with no outcome data
12 studies with overlapping populations
8 observational studies
6 studies with not pharmacological comparator
6 studies with pediatric patients
5 retracted papers
4 abstract published before 2010

46 articles finally included in the


network meta-analysis

Fig 1 Flow diagram - description of selection process of included studies.

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carried out with a different vague prior distribution for the


between-trials variance (Univariate distribution replaced the
Inverse-Gamma distribution), with low risk of bias trials, with
studies not supported by a drug company and removing the
largest trial.
Due to zero-cell events in each comparisons that included
enoximone treatment (mortality data were reported but no
patient died in the studies including enoximone), we carried
out a sub Bayesian network meta-analysis combining enoximone and milrinone groups. Other methodological details for
the Statistical analyses and for the conduction of the Bayesian
network meta-analyses are reported in the Supplementary
Appendix S2.
Finally, we calculated the posterior distribution of the probability to be the first, the second, the third and the worst treatment and we show the correspondent cumulative rank curves.
The statistical analysis was performed by STATA (release 11,
College Station, TX) and winBUGS (release 1.4, freeware available by BUGS project).

BJA

Greco et al.

Placebo
OR

)
83
0.

5
.3 s
(0 die
4
5 tu
0. 0 s
R= 2

.0

udy
1 st

OR

=0.

Dobutamine

OR=0.39 (0.160.95)
4 studies

y
tud

1s

Enoximone

Milrinone

Fig 2 Network configuration - for each comparison is displayed the estimate effect and number of studies analysed.

effect0.039, P for heterogeneity0.6, I 2 0% NNT14, with


four studies included). For each pairwise comparison, the
overall funnel plot did not show an important asymmetrical
shape of estimate distribution (Supplementary Figure S3).The
superiority of levosimendan vs placebo was confirmed when
sequentially removing each study while the superiority of
levosimendan vs dobutamine was lost when removing one
large trial.39
The Bayesian network meta-analysis (Table 2) found that
only the use of levosimendan was associated with a decrease
in mortality. The survival benefit was limited to the comparison
with placebo (posterior mean of OR0.48, 95% CrI 0.28 to
0.80) with the model having a good fit (Dres 155.8 and
DIC183.7). The validity of consistency analysis were confirmed by a low probability in favour of inconsistency model
(probability0.01). The similarity between the effect estimated by both consistency and inconsistency model, was
shown in the Supplementary Figure S4.
Furthermore, the Bayesian meta-regressions of average
follow-up against log-risk of mortality showed no significant
time-related effects on mortality (regression coefficient0.005
CrI 20.001 to 0.011, days).
Table 3 show the results of sensitivity analyses: the beneficial effect of levosimendan vs placebo was confirmed changing
the prior distribution, with studies not supported by a drug
company and removing the largest study,40 however, analysing the 19 low risk of bias trials, this superiority was lost.
We also performed a second analysis combining the enoximone and milrinone groups (Dres 155.9 and DIC183.7) to
overcome the zero-cell count problem (Table 2) and confirmed
that levosimendan was better than placebo.
Table 4 reports the posterior distribution of the probability for
each inodilator to be the best and the worst drug, showing that

Page 6 of 11

levosimendan is the best agent to improve survival after cardiac


surgery. Figure 3 shows the cumulative rank curves of the probability to be the first, the second, the third and the worst treatment, confirming that levosimendan is the best treatment.

Discussion
The main finding of this study is that only treatment with levosimendan is associated with mortality reduction in cardiac
surgery. This Bayesian network meta-analysis suggested that
levosimendan is associated with the lowest risk of mortality
among the comparators included in the study: the inodilators
PDE-3 inhibitors enoximone and milrinone, the classic dobutamine and placebo. The superiority of levosimendan vs placebo
was confirmed both in the simple pairwise and in Bayesian
network meta-analysis while the superiority of levosimendan
vs dobutamine was present in the pairwise but not confirmed
in the network meta-analysis. These findings should be treated with caution because the statistical significance was lost
when sensitivity analyses including only low risk of bias study
were performed and because no multicentre randomised trial
to confirm these findings exists. Notably, the Bayesian metaanalysis failed to rank inodilators: with the notable exception
of levosimendan, the other studied drugs are either similar
one each other or not properly studied so far not allowing to
reach a statistically significant difference among them in mortality, even using indirect comparisons.
The real effects of inodilators on mortality in cardiac surgery
have been the white whale for many years. Our study summarises the data on mortality from all randomised trials on
inodilators in a single picture, including direct and indirect
comparisons. Levosimendan was superior to placebo and,
overall, it was the best agent to reduce perioperative mortality.

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1 stu
dy

43
2 s (0.05

tud
ies 3.53)

15

)
.85
02
(0.4 es
i
07
=1. 2 stud
1

Levosimendan

0
(
stu 0.10
die 1
s 0.

OR

=1

BJA

Effect of inodilatory agents on mortality

Table 2 Posterior distribution of mean and 95% credible interval, for the inodilator difference effects, derived by Bayesian hierarchical model with
Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. * Indirect treatment difference effect calculated from consistency equation. Significant treatment difference
effect
Contrast

Overall Bayesian network meta-analysis

Combining enoximone and milrinone


groups

OR

OR

Levosimendan vs placebo

0.48

Enoximone vs placebo

1.53

95% credible interval

95% credible interval

0.28 to 0.80

0.48

,0.01 to .100

1.12

0.39 to 3.25

0.28 to 0.80

Milrinone vs placebo

1.12

0.40 to 3.25

Dobutamine vs placebo

1.45

0.44 to 4.68

1.47

0.44 to 4.66

Enoximone vs levosimendan*

3.20

,0.01 to .100

2.32

0.71 to 7.62

Milrinone vs levosimendan*

2.35

0.73 to 7.59
3.06

0.85 to 10.98

3.03

0.83 to 11.04

0.73

,0.01 to .100

Dobutamine vs enoximone*

0.95

,0.01 to .100

1.32

0.27 to 6.41

Dobutamine vs milrinone*

1.29

0.27 to 6.25

Table 3 Sensitivity analyses. Posterior distribution of mean and 95% credible interval, for the inodilator difference effects, derived by Bayesian
hierarchical model with Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. * Indirect treatment difference effect calculated from consistency equation.

Significant treatment difference effect


Contrast

Levosimendan vs placebo
Enoximone vs placebo

Inverse-Gamma as prior
distribution (46 trials)

Low risk of bias trials


(19 trials)

Studies not supported by a


drug company
(40 studies)

Removing the largest trial


(45 trials)

OR

95% credible
interval

OR

OR

OR

0.48

0.28 to 0.81

.100 ,0.01 to .100

95% credible
interval

95% credible
interval

0.32

0.01 to 4.49

0.36

0.18 to 0.71

1.06

,0.01 to .100

1.60

,0.001 to .100

0.54
,0.01

95% credible
interval
0.29 to 0.95
,0.01 to .100

Milrinone vs placebo

1.14

0.40 to 3.24

3.33

0.16 to .100

1.02

0.33 to 3.26

1.19

0.41 to 3.55

Dobutamine vs placebo

1.46

0.45 to 4.83

0.03

,0.01 to .100

1.12

0.27 to 4.22

1.65

0.46 to 5.47

3.34

,0.01 to .100

4.39

,0.001 to .100

Enoximone vs
levosimendan*

.100 ,0.01 to .100

,0.01

,0.01 to .100

Milrinone vs
levosimendan*

2.36

0.74 to 7.54

10.44

0.11 to .100

2.79

0.75 to 10.45

2.20

0.64 to 7.54

Dobutamine vs
levosimendan*

3.03

0.83 to 11.05

0.08

,0.01 to .100

3.06

0.67 to 13.96

3.04

0.79 to 11.74

Milrinone vs enoximone*

0.01 ,0.01 to .100

3.13

,0.01 to .100

0.64

,0.001 to .100

,0.01

,0.01 to .100

Dobutamine vs
enoximone*

0.01 ,0.01 to .100

0.03

,0.01 to .100

0.70

,0.001 to .100

,0.01

,0.01 to .100

Dobutamine vs milrinone*

1.29

0.01

,0.01 to .100

1.10

0.19 to 6.41

0.27 to 6.18

A meta-regression, performed to detect if differences in the


length of follow up weighted on results, showed no significant
effect of time on mortality. These findings confirm previous evidence from meta-analyses of randomised controlled studies
that showed a beneficial effect of levosimendan on survival
in the populations of cardiac surgery56 and critically ill patients.57
However, previous analyses lacked the indirect comparisons and
the ranking among different comparators and did not focus on
inodilators, therefore their results were less robust and useful
than the present results. Furthermore, they either included any
settings of critically ill patients57 or, when focusing on cardiac
surgery, were not as updated as the present analysis.56

1.39

0.27 to 7.08

We performed a Bayesian network meta-analysis to answer


an important clinical question: what is the effect of levosimendan, enoximone, milrinone and dobutamine on survival in
adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery? The Bayesian
network meta-analysis approach was deemed to be the most
appropriate because it can integrate direct and indirect effect
estimates and can compare drugs that did not undergo sufficient head-to-head comparison in the original clinical trials.
In this way, it was possible to identify levosimendan as the
best treatment according to published randomised evidence.
We focused on adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery
and receiving inodilator because this is a widespread and

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Dobutamine vs levosimendan*
Milrinone vs enoximone*

BJA

Greco et al.

Table 4 Posterior distribution of the probability to be the best and the worst for each inodilators drug, derived by Bayesian hierarchical model with
Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm
Drugs

Overall Bayesian network meta-analysis

Combining enoximone and milrinone groups

Probability to be the best

Probability to be the worst

Probability to be the best

Probability to be the worst

Levosimendan

0.5146

0.0001

0.9088

0.0002

Enoximone

0.4424

0.5421

0.0674

0.2874

Milrinone

0.0302

0.1370

Dobutamine

0.0114

0.2605

0.0028

0.1274

Placebo

0.0014

0.0603

0.0028

0.1274

Cumulative prob to be
the best

Cumulative prob to be
the second

Levosimendan

Cumulative prob to be
the third

Enoximone

Placebo

Cumulative prob to be
the fourth
Milrinone

Cumulative prob to be
the worst
Dobutamine

1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Cumulative prob to be
the best
Levosimendan

Cumulative prob to be
the second
Placebo

Cumulative prob to be
the third

Cumulative prob to be
the worst

Enoximone-Milrinone

Dobutamine

Fig 3 Cumulative rank curves - probability to be the first, the second, the third and the worst for each treatment.

relatively standardised setting and because inodilators are


the most frequently used and studied agents worldwide in
this setting.
While levosimendan has been demonstrated to be the safest
among inodilators, its main drawback resides in its high costs.
Treatment with levosimendan might increase patient cost per
recovery.58 However, higher drug expenses are balanced by its
beneficial effect on the length of hospital stay and on complications.59 While this is true for developed countries, treatment

Page 8 of 11

with levosimendan seems to be nonetheless expensive and


thus not always available in every country for economic reasons.
The probability to be the best or the worse inodilator, reported in Table 4, should not be underestimated, as it enables physicians worldwide to choose the best drug for their
patient, basing their decision on their local resources. Nonetheless, it should be remembered that our findings should be taken
cautiously because the statistical significance was lost when
sensitivity analyses including only low risk of bias study were

Downloaded from http://bja.oxfordjournals.org/ at Main Library of Gazi University on February 4, 2015

1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0

BJA

Effect of inodilatory agents on mortality

performed. To confirm the findings of this study, a large multicentre factorial randomised controlled trial comparing levosimendan vs PDE-3 inhibitors, dobutamine and placebo should
be conducted. Alternatively, we should wait for the results of
the two large multicentre randomised trials should comparing
levosimendan vs placebo on top of the best available treatment that are running so far in Europe (NCT00994825) and in
the United States (NCT02025621).

Limitations

Conclusions
This manuscript is the most updated and methodologically
strongest meta-analysis on the effect of inodilators on mortality in cardiac surgery. Using Bayesian network meta-analyses
techniques, we attempted ranking among different inodilators
that have never properly been compared one each other, and
identified levosimendan to be the best inodilator to improve
survival in adult cardiac surgery. Since meta-analyses are hypothesis generating and our findings were not confirmed
when limiting the analysis to low risk of bias studies, these
results should be confirmed by large multicentre RCTs.

Supplementary material
Supplementary material is available at British Journal of
Anaesthesia online.

Authors contributions
T.G.: definition of intellectual content, Literature search, Data
acquisition, Data analysis, Statistical analysis, Manuscript
preparation, Manuscript editing. M.G.C.: literature search,
Data acquisition, Manuscript review. R.D.C.: literature search,
Data acquisition, Manuscript editing. M.G.: design, Literature

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The major weakness of indirect meta-analysis is that confounding can be a major bias. That is, the risk status of one
study cohort may be markedly different of another. Furthermore, several RCTs included in our meta-analysis were of suboptimal quality. Nonetheless, our conclusions are based on
41% of studies of high quality and all the sub-analyses performed confirmed that levosimendan treatment improves
survival when compared with placebo. Notably, thirty-six
further studies were excluded because they lacked data on
mortality outcome and authors did not answer to our request
to provide these data. This limited the power of the analysis
and the precision of results. At the same time, we focused on
mortality, the most clinically relevant outcome and the one
less subject to interpretation, we used several databases to
identify the pertinent studies and we focused on randomised
trials only. The comparisons included different numbers of
trials depending on study drugs, while trials differed by
number of included patients, surgical settings and mortality
risk of their populations. Some studies only included patients
with low cardiac output syndrome after cardiac surgery,
without other specifications. A large part of included studies
did not report on funding, thus making more difficult to draw
conclusion on the possible influence of drug companies on
the results of the original papers. Data from trials on enoximone had zero-cell counts and we had to repeat a second analysis combining PDE-3 inhibitors. Dose and length of drugs
administration were heterogeneous and not reported in our
tables, nonetheless they corresponded to local routine practice. At the same time, since inotropic drugs are often considered to be lifesaving in cardiac surgery most trials had
placebo on top of standard treatment as comparator and not
placebo only. Bayesian network meta-analysis incorporates
both direct and indirect comparisons between treatments.
However indirect evidence is susceptible to confounding,6
and thus should be interpreted with caution since it does not
always agree with the corresponding direct estimates.7 Since
the indirect estimate derives results from the direct effects
of two treatments vs a third common comparator, it can confound the overall results because it not always agrees with
the corresponding direct estimates. This bias results in a
greater pooled estimate variability.7 Like heterogeneity in traditional random-effects models of meta-analysis, the comparison between the consistency and the inconsistency model is
used to quantify variation among estimates and is incorporated into the estimate of the confidence interval.60 The discrepancy between consistency and inconsistency estimates

could be used to evaluate the convergence between direct


and indirect comparisons.61 Although the consistency hypothesis was not rejected in this Bayesian network meta-analyses,
additional methodological and empirical work needs to be
done to evaluate the direct and indirect comparisons across
a number of types of interventions. Bayesian network metaanalyses assume that patients enrolled in the individual
studies could have been sampled from the same theoretical
population, and that similar comparators between different
trials have a consistent risk-benefit ratio. Furthermore, traditional limitations of meta-analyses62 due to variations in
the treatment regimens, in populations or major subgroups
within trials, and in the conduction of the trials also apply to
this Bayesian network meta-analysis.
After reading our study, physicians might consider choosing
levosimendan when needing to use an inodilator in cardiac
surgery. This drug is the most frequently studied and the only
one with a documented effect on mortality reduction in this
setting when compared with placebo. At the same time, the
other inodilators have never been properly compared with
placebo or in head to head comparisons to other inodilators.
In particular, enoximone was compared only once against
placebo and once against dobutamine in spite of being extensively used in several countries. Moreover, even using Bayesian
network techniques it is not possible to reach definite conclusions on their effects on mortality and on their ranking when
compared with other inodilators. Since most evidence comes
from small single centre studies and levosimendan is still an expensive drug, there is still need to wait for the results of large
multicentre RCTs that will have to confirm the benefit of levosimendan on survival and on clinically relevant outcomes in
cardiac surgery.

BJA
search, Data analysis, Statistical analysis, Manuscript review.
L.P.: definition of intellectual content, Data acquisition, Manuscript preparation. A.D.: concepts, Design, Definition of intellectual content, Manuscript preparation, Manuscript review. G.L.:
concepts, Design, Definition of intellectual content, Data
analysis, Manuscript preparation, Manuscript review, Guarantor. A.Z.: concepts, Design, Definition of intellectual content,
Manuscript editing, Manuscript review.

Acknowledgements

Greco et al.

14

15

16

We thank P. Zuppelli for the data entry and A. Carpanese and


D. Winterton for the careful revision of the manuscript.
17

Declaration of interest
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