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Term Paper
Submitted by:
Rumana Binte Masud
Student ID No: PH 1501003
Date: 08 May 2015
1.
Presenter Introduction.
longest ongoing conflicts in the world. Due to recent efforts at reforms and
democratization, Myanmar has come under the light of the media and the
ethnic clashes have attracted more attention than they ever have in the
past. This paper aims to examine the potential for conflict transformation.
The presentation provides a glimpse of the conflict dynamics and suggests
the need for a systemic transformation to provide a solution to this
intractable violence.
2.
transformation,
systemic
conflict
transformation,
inspired
by
more on changing the structural patterns that cause violence, the core
difference and belief or ethnicity.
3.
a military coup was enacted by the State Law and Order Restoration
Council (SLORC). According to the Economist, 3000 or more people were
killed in the public uprising in Burma in 1988.
d.
During the public uprising in 1988, Aung San Su Kyi became a national
icon for her leading role in opposition groups. The second generation of
military junta held elections in 1990 and her party, The National League
for Democracy (NLD) won with a landslide victory. However, the military
junta refused to honor the election results and Aung San Su Kyi was
placed under house arrest for the next 15 years. Ethnics rebel groups
were out of support from both of the wings (left and right). They were
severely fought by government forces and lose their main bases in
1990s. Since 2006, a Burmese army offensive has been enacted against
the KNU in Karen State, and has resulted in the displacement of a high
number of people. One estimate has identified approximately half a
million people who have been displaced within eastern Burma due to
armed conflict and the forcible relocation of villages. In 2007, hundred
thousands of monks defied the government, but were severely crushed
down by government. In 2010, government introduced its new
Constitution and Aung San Su Kyi, and thousands of political prisoners,
were released. In 2011, the Burmese army initiated a military operation
called "Zwe Man Hein" to combat the rebel groups in Shan State. The
offensive was a response from the Burmese army, as the rebel groups
refused to accept Burma's 'One Nation One Army' policy.
e.
National Reconciliation
forced
ethnics
groups
to
sign
ceasefire
military
government
tried
to
From
1993
approve
to
draft
it
was
survival
strategy
for
military
government
in
2010.
In
the
new
government,
and
allies
(AA,
ABSDF,
TNLA)
caused
hundred
minorities
ethnic
groups
wanted
negotiations
in
the
conference
and
complained
the
lack
of
Commission
and
communication process
4. The Conflict
armed
groups
were
formal
a.
nature, the main conflict actors are mostly ethnicarmed groups. While
there are dozens of these armed groups(See table-1), the most recent
clashes are occurring between the government forces called the
Tatmadaw, and the rebel groups present mostly in the Kachin state, the
KachinIndependence Army (KIA) that operates for the KIO.
Military
conflict
Ethnopolitical
conflict
Ethnosocietal
conflict
Primary
actors
- Tatmadaw
- KIA factions
Secondary
Actors
- Affected
populations
- States and
organizations
providing
weapons
militias
- Drug cartels
abroad
Tatmadaw
- Affected
- KIA factions populations
mainly
and - States and
other
organizations
ethnic groups providing
- Rohingya
weapons
militias
- Rohingya
- Affected
muslims
populations
Buddhist - Religious
ethnic
institutions
groups
- Burmese
government
Educational
Tertiary
Actors/Stakeholders
- International
community
- Media
- Refugee hosting
states
- International
community
- Media
- Neighboring
countries
(Thailand,
China)
International
community
- Media
- UN
- INGOs
- Malaysia and
Thailand,
Bangladesh,
has two fronts: the Rohingyas are opposed to both the Buddhist
population in the Rakhine state and to the Tatmadaw. Like all conflicts,
especially civil, there are also secondary and tertiary parties that are
involved in the different conflict subsystems in a less obvious way.
Tertiary parties can act as facilitators of change, mediators and
observers.
b.
Conceptual
Differences.The
successive
military
with
its
implementation
of
protecting
"national
rights
violations.
the
(3)
Burma
Mother
state.
(5)
The
disasters,
Drugs.
which
need
to be
addressed.
conflict, all parties are competing against each other. None of them is
willing to compromise as proves the ongoing fighting. Human Rights
research Matthew Smith gives a good summary of thecurrent situation
in Burma: I would imagine that there are people in the Burmese
military who anticipate sitting down eventually with the Kachin, so the
more groundthey can take over before that point, the better their
negotiating position will be
Conflict dynamics
In the case of Myanmar, at this stage of the conflict, all parties are
competing against each other. None of them is willing to compromise as
proves the ongoing fighting. Human Rights research Matthew Smith gives a
good summary of the current situation in Burma: I would imagine that there
are people in the Burmese military who anticipate sitting down eventually
with the Kachin, so the more ground they can take over before that point, the
better their negotiating position will be. An attempt was made by President
Thein Sein to avoid the conflict and change its dynamics by declaring a
unilateral ceasefire with KIA in January 2013. This clearly represents a winlose situation for ethnic armed groups who do not see any advantage to a
ceasefire agreement that would force them to disarm and remain vulnerable
to violent military incursions from the government87. Despite the ceasefire
and the claims by President Thein Sein that hostilities have ceased, KIA
asserts that they are still suffering from violence and human rights
abuses88. This attempt to transform the issue was a failure due to a lack of
trust between parties and a lack of political and military commitment. This
can be explained by a long historyof conflict and mistrust between ethnic
groups and the ruling party.
The Myanmar conflict follows a retaliatory conflict spiral model. This model
proposed by Pruitt, Rubin and Kim89 suggests that the escalation of the
conflict follows a spiral model in which each party responds to the
opponents immediate or past behaviour. The accumulated or recent feelings
of anger dictate the reaction of each party leading to conflict escalation. This
appears difficult to stop because the negative feelings towards the other and
possible misperception of their behavior prevent any conciliatory actions
such as cessation of hostilities, mediation or negotiations.
Conflict Dynamics
d.
Conflict
Violence
Rohingya minority.
and
Force
flee:
Case
Study
on
provinces
and
other
countries,
mostly
Malaysia,
Bangladesh
humanitarian
consequences,
environmental
and
resources
No. of IDPs
Year /sources
/Regions
Shan State
145,600 IDPs
TBBC, 2011
Karenni State
35,100 IDPs
TBBC, 2011
Pegu Region
44,900 IDPs
TBBC, 2011
Karen State
106,800 IDPs
TBBC, 2011
Mon State
40,000 IDPs
TBBC, 2011
Kachin State
77,600 IDPs
TBBC, 2011
Tanintharyi Region
55,000 IDPs
UN-OCHA, 2012
Chin State
65,000 IDPs
80,000 IDPs
2011
Narinjara News, 2002
Table : 2- IDPs
Estimated total: 650,000 IDPs in Burma
There is little information available on internal displacement in western
Burma. Limited access to affected areas and lack of independent
monitoring make it virtually impossible to verify their reports of the
numbers and situations of internally displaced people. Furthermore, in
Western Burma the situation is far less well-reported and levels of aid and
advocacy are lower compared to Thailand border areas. Overall estimates
of the total number of IDPs, including many long-term IDPs, goes up to
several million.
b. Refugees.
Like IDPs, statistics for refugees are hard to verify. The numbers
below are estimates of refugees from Burma,
both registered and unregistered, living in Burma's neighboring
countries.
(1)
c.
In his inaugural
and
whose
ceasefires
government:the
Kachin
were
declared
void
Independence
by
the
Organisation
that require attention in order to induce change within the systems and
transform the conflict towards peace.
a.
require
for
both
sides
to
make
compromises, goals
must
be
Interpersonal transformation.
There
is
need
to
commissions
in
cooperation
with
local
and
Societal transformation.
The
need
for
cultural
Language policies must also be put into place to ensure the respect
of all dialects.
7.
Conclusion.
the
complex
nature
of
this
intractable
conflict
while
conflict
of
the
conflict
and
potentially
external
help.
Conflict
Myat New.
3.
4.
2011.
5.
6.
Dr
Marie
Lall,