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Maintenance Optimization

Why optimization of maintenance?


1. Planning of maintenance activities
2. Allocation of budget and insight in
consequences if budget is not available (what
will happen if maintenance is not carried out)?
3. Most efficient use of available budget
Result: for each structure (or water system) set of
rules for maintenance (when/how maintenance),
maintenance plan and maintenance procedure

Approach
Two types of approaches:
Qualitatively based maintenance rules
Quantitatively based maintenance rules
The qualitatively based maintenance rules will give an initial
insight in vital components (high failure consequences,
components with high repair costs, etc.).
These dominant components will mainly dictate the
maintenance concept. The other components are
consequential, and do not require further effort.

Types of costs
Three types of costs in maintenance planning:
1.

Costs of repair or replacement

2.

Costs of inspection

3.

Risk-costs (costs of failure multiplied with failure probability)

Target: minimum Life Cycle Costs, so we have to balance these costs


(on time basis, the Net Present Value approach).
The longer the component will fulfil its function, the lower the cost per
unit are, but the higher the risk of failure may be or the more
inspections are needed to lower that risk.

Simplified Cost formulas


Failure based corrective maintenance:
E(c) = (Cr + Cf)/Tc
Use-based preventive maintenance:
E(c) = (Cr + Pf(tr)Cf)/Tc
Condition-based preventive maintenance:
E(c) = (Cr + nCi+ Pf(n,g)Cf)/Tc
in which:
E(c) = expected total cost per unit time; Cr = cost of repair or replacement; Ci = cost of
inspection
Cf = cost of failure; Pf = probability of failure; Tc = mean lifetime; n = number of
inspections
g = boundary of rejection to repair

Use and limitations of cost formulas


The simplified cost formulas present a very rough
approximation, and are to simple to be used in practice.
They do not take into account:
The time value of money (no discounting)
There is no degradation of the structure included
So we need another approach. However, for 'screening'
purposes this simplified approach might be used.

Degradation
In hydraulic engineering, a (component) of a
structure can be in a number of different 'states',
depending on its degrading resistance.
A failure is defined as the event in which
- due to deterioration - the resistance drops below
the design stress or the failure level.
For example: the minimum water to be withstood,
or the crest-level of a dyke.

Example
Suppose the crest level of an embankment is 2
meters, and the failure level is 1,50 meters.
Suppose the preventive maintenance level is
1,80 meters. The settlement each year is 0,02 m
(no uncertainty).
What is the preventive maintenance interval?

Preventive maintenance levels


In the example the maintenance level is given.
But how can we determine this level?
Answer: make calculations for different levels (or
related maintenance intervals), using all types of
costs (risk costs, repair costs, inspection cost).

maintenance costs per year

OPTIMAL MAINTENANCE INTERVAL


(PREVENTIVE MAINTENANCE)
total cost

cost of failure

minimum
repair cost
optimum
maintenance interval

A preventive maintenance strategy


One of the simplest preventive maintenance
strategies is the well-known age replacement
strategy.
A component is replaced upon failure or upon
reaching a pre-determined age, the so-called
'age-replacement interval'.

AGE REPLACEMENT WITH AN AGE REPLACEMENT


INTERVAL OF 10 YEARS
number of
replacements
7

replacement

6
5

preventive replacement
corrective replacement

unused remaining life

3
2
1
0
10
0 preventive age
replacement interval

20

30

40

50
time [year]

Uncertain deterioration and time of failure


In mechanical and electrical engineering, the life time is often
represented by 'lifetime distributions' (derived from statistics).
In Hydraulic Engineering we often have preventive
maintenance, so we cannot have failure data to obtain
'lifetime distributions'.
A structure can be in a variety of states, depending on its
degrading resistance.
If there is no uncertainty in the detorioration, it is rather easy
to calculate the preventive maintenance interval.
It becomes more difficult if the detorioration is uncertain.

Statistical calculation of lifetime


Suppose that the average detorioration per year is , and the standard
deviation is . We assume linear deterioration.
Than after n years we have as deterioration: n., and the standard
deviation: (n.2).
If we assume a normal distribution we can calculate in each year the
failure probability.
Example
Suppose we have for a particular embankment average settlement of
0,02 m per year, with a standard deviation of 0,002. What is the
deterioration after 10 years (average and standard deviation)?

Example
We have an embankment, and we want to know the preventive maintenance
interval.
The crest level decline is 0,01 m per year, and the standard deviation is 0,02 m
(normal distribution). The crest level is now 1,5 m, and the failure level is 1,30
m. Suppose that an acceptable safety level is a failure probability of 0,01 per
year.
The failure probability after 5 years: the mean decrease of the embankment
is 5x0,01=0,05 and standard deviation=5x0,02=0,0447
P(x<1,30)=P(u<(1,30-1,45)/0,0447)=P(u<-3,35) = 0,0004
After 10 years:
P(x<1,30)=P(u<(1,30-1,40)/0,0632) = P(u<-1,58) = 0,0571
After 15 years:
P(x<1,30)=P(u<(1,30-1,35)/0,0775) = P(u<-0,64) = 0,2611
After 20 years:
P(x<1,30)=P(u<(1,30-1,30)/0,0894) = P(u<0) = 0,5
After 25 years:
P(x<1,30)=P(u<(1,30-1,25)/0,1) = P(u<0,5) = 0,6915

Exercise

We have an embankment, and we want to know the preventive


maintenance interval.
The probability of failure Pf is the following:
Year 1: 0,005; year 2: 0,02; year 3: 0,04; year 4: 0,08
Year 5: 0,16; year 6: 0,32; year 7: 0,64
Cost formula is: Cr+PV(PfCf)/AF0,05,n with n the maintenance interval
Failure Cost Cf= 10.000 euro, Repair Cost Cr = 1000 euro. The
interest rate is 5%. Please make the cost figure. What is the optimal
maintenance interval?