Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Shang-Jin Wei
Chief Economist, Asian Development Bank
The views expressed in this document are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views and
13/04/2016
policies of
the Asian Development Bank or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent.
Key messages
Growth in developing Asia softens to 5.7% in 2016 and
2017, from 5.9% last year
PRC growth moderating to 6.5% in 2016 and 6.3% in 2017
underscores the importance of supply-side reforms
India growth projected at 7.4% in 2016 and 7.8% in 2017
13/04/2016
13/04/2016
7.0
6.3
6.5
6.4
6.3
5.9
6.0
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.2
4.0
3.4
3.5
3.3
3.4
2013
2014
3.6
3.4
3.1
3.0
2011
2012
2015
2016f
2017f
f: forecast
13/04/2016
2015
2016f
2017f
1.8
1.8
1.9
United States
2.4
2.3
2.5
Euro area
1.5
1.5
1.6
Japan
0.5
0.6
0.5
f= forecast
13/04/2016
13/04/2016
13/04/2016
30
20
India
United States
10
ASEAN
Euro area
Indonesia
Japan
0
0
10
20
30
Average contributions, 2011-2015 (%)
40
13/04/2016
30
People's Rep. of China
20
United States
10
Euro area
India
ASEAN
Indonesia
Japan
0
0
10
20
30
Average contributions, 2011-2015 (%)
40
Economic growth
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
18
15
12
9
Retail sales
GDP
Value-added by
industry
2012
2013
2014
2015
Manufacturing
Real estate
Jan
2014
0
2011
Infrastructure
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
2015
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
2016
%
10
%
12
%
100
100
10
80
80
8
6
120
Investment
GDP (rhs)
GDP (rhs)
Services
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
-20
0
Consumption
2011
2012
13/04/2016
Net exports
2013
2014
-2
2015
0
2011
2012
2013
Agriculture
2014
Industry
2015
13/04/2016
Non-oil exports
10000
5000
0
Portfolio investment
Direct investment
Foreign investment inflows
-10000
Jan-2013 Sep-2013 May-2014 Jan-2015 Sep-2015
Oil exports
Jan2013
Jul2013
Jan2014
Jul2014
Jan2015
-5000
Jul2015
Jan2016
%
150 Gross fixed capital Net exports
%
9
GDP (rhs)
formation
100
50
Government
consumption
Others
-50
2012
2013
Private consumption
-3
2014
2015
%
10
GDP (rhs)
Services
80
60
40
20
0
-20
0
2012
Agriculture
2013
2014
2015
Industry
-2
13/04/2016
2016f
2017f
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
ASEAN INO
THA
PHI
MAL
SIN
VIE
f: forecast
ASEAN=Association of Southeast Asian Nations; BRU=Brunei Darussalam; CAM=Cambodia; INO=Indonesia;
LAO=Lao PDR; MAL=Malaysia; MYA=Myanmar; PHI=Philippines; SIN=Singapore; THA=Thailand; VIE=Viet Nam
13/04/2016
10
13/04/2016
18
Fixed
investment
14
Bank
Indonesia
rate
6
10
Private
consumption
Inflation
2
0
Jan2013
%
160
Government
consumption
GDP (rhs)
120
%
8
Net exports
2011
Investment
2012
2013
Statistical
discrepancy
2014
Jan2015
Jul2015
Jan2016
%
100
Services
GDP (rhs)
%
7
6
5
40
20
-2
40
-40
Jul2014
60
Private
consumption
Jan2014
80
80
Jul2013
2
2011
2015
2012
2013
Agriculture
2014
Industry
2015
13/04/2016
11
Futures
Brent crude
150
130
Food
110
Gold
90
Copper
Beverage
70
50
Natural gas
30
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
13/04/2016
12
13/04/2016
5-year average
5.9
3.9
3.8
3.0
2.2
2.5
2.7
2015
2016f
2017f
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
f: forecast
13/04/2016
13
13/04/2016
14
13/04/2016
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Actual
Trade
Capital flows
Foreign debt burden
13/04/2016
15
110
LAO
110
PRC
100
100
90
VIE
PHI
80
INO
70
MAL
80
IND
ARM
80
70
GEO
60
60
50
50
50
40
Jan-13
40
Jan-13
40
Jan-13
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
LAO
VIE
PHI
MAL
INO
13/04/2016
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
KGZ
UZB
90
70
AZE
TAJ
100
SRI
90
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
60
KAZ
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
90
80
PRC
UZB
70
SRI
ARM
IND
GEO
60
50
40
KGZ
TAJ
AZE
KAZ
30
1-Jan 12-Jan 23-Jan 3-Feb 14-Feb25-Feb 7-Mar
16
13/04/2016
0.4
Then
0.0
0.00
Rest of developing
Asias growth falls by
0.3pp
-0.05
-0.20
-0.4
-0.20
-0.15
-0.30
-0.30
-0.8
-0.85
-1.2
PRC
USA
Euro
area
Japan
EA ex
PRC
LA
Commodity prices
RC
World
Total effect
13/04/2016
17
0
-0.60
-0.65
-1
-1.10
-0.95
-1.50
-1.80
-2
-1.75
-3
-4
-4.60
-5
PRC
US
Euro
area
Japan
EA ex
PRC
LA
RC
Commodity prices
Total effect
World
18
13/04/2016
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
13/04/2016
19
0
13/04/2016
10
20
30
40
20
10
13/04/2016
-8
-6
-4
-2
Producer prices
Consumer prices
13/04/2016
21
%
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
CPI
PPI
Low inflation
13/04/2016
CPI
PPI
High inflation
CPI
PPI
Deflation
22
11
13/04/2016
0.02
0.00
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
0.04
0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
13/04/2016
23
Theme chapter:
Asias potential
growth
13/04/2016
24
12
13/04/2016
12.0
10.1
10.0
8.0
5.9
6.0
4.0
1.8
2.0
1.5
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
Developing Asia
Latin America
OECD
-6.0
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
13/04/2016
25
26
13
13/04/2016
10
7.3-7.4%
(1995-96)
7.39%
(Ave. 2000-07)
8.45%
7.07% (Ave. 2008-14)
6.68
6
4
Asian-13 Average
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
5.21
Actual
Potential
-10
13/04/2016
-5
0
Percentage point
10
27
Labor force
growth
(20%)
Productivity gap
with the US
Tertiary
enrollment ratio
Trade ratio
Convergence effect
through capital
accumulation (-0.33
per additional $1,000)
Positive advantages of
backwardness (0.077);
larger for less
politically stable
countries
Positive effect up to
50%
Positive effect up to
440% of GDP
Good Institutions
Financial capital
integration
Macroeconomic
stability
Efficient factor
allocation of
capital and labor
at firm level
Labor market
flexibility
Government quality
Citizen participation
Working-age
population
(ages 1564)
growth
Unequal access to
credit makes firms too
labor intensive
Lack of access to land
makes firms too small
One-to-one effect on
potential growth
13/04/2016
28
14
13/04/2016
-0.31
0.99
-1.01
0.98
-0.87
0.97
-0.6
0.95
-0.32
0.94
-0.63
0.94
-0.43
0.92
-0.01 0.85
-0.2
0.8
-0.34
0.8
-0.13 0.76
-0.33
0.74
0.38
0.73
-0.11 0.72
-0.26 0.68
-0.38
0.59
-0.65
0.54
-0.41
0.5
-0.93
0.36
-0.59 0.2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
Impact of demographics
0
0.5
1
Impact of reforms
1.5
13/04/2016
29
13/04/2016
30
15
13/04/2016
13/04/2016
31
13/04/2016
32
16
13/04/2016
Corporate Income
Household
Country
Tax
Income Tax
Flexible with Both Fiscal and Monetary Policies
Armenia
20
36
China, People's
Rep. of
25
45
Philippines
30
32
Tajikistan
24
13
Georgia
15
20
Taipei,China
17
45
Thailand
20
35
Afghanistan
20
20
Flexible with Fiscal Policy
Bangladesh
45
30
Indonesia
25
30
Kiribati
35
30
Azerbaijan
20
25
Bhutan
30
25
Korea, Rep. of
24.2
38
Mongolia
25
10
Papua New Guinea
30
42
Kazakhstan
20
10
Flexible with Monetary Policy
Maldives
15
Sri Lanka
28
24
Cambodia
20
20
India
40
30
Pakistan
34
20
Samoa
27
27
Consider other type of policy options
Brunei Darussalam
18.5
0
Hong Kong, China
16.5
17
Lao People's Dem.
Rep.
24
24
Sample Median
24.6
27
Japan
25.5
45
US
35
39.6
VAT
Social Security
Contribution Tax
Govt. Debt
Ratio
Fiscal
Balance
20
10
41
-4.6
8.5
3.7
17
12
18
18
5
7
28
17
26
41
36
-3.5
-0.9
-2.3
-3.7
-1
-2.5
0.7
2.25
5
16
8
1.625
1.5
17
20
1.5
10
25
8.5
8
1.4
1.4
5.1
4
-0.3
-0.9
-1.5
15
10
12.5
18
25
15.7
15
25
22
17.7
23
34
25
6.75
7
6.5
6.5
5
7
1.5
12
0.5
10
3.5
12
10
15
-4.3
-2.5
-1.1
-1.2
-2.2
-3
-3.1
-3.2
-2.2
17
6.4
6.4
1.4
4
6.6
0.7
6.6
5.1
6.6
14
20
-7.4
-4.5
-2.4
-3.9
-5.3
-3.9
10
8
20
6
12
73
76
34
66
65
55
6.75
6
0.17
10
7.5
12.5
4
5
15
1
3.8
1.2
5
4.5
1.9
10
10
2
0
-14
1.3
5
0.75
-0.4
3
5
7.5
0.75
10
1.3
10
10
10
12
11
10
17
15
0
10
11.5
8
12
10
16
11.5
15.7
29
15.3
35
38
44
16
36
-4.7
246
105
-5.4
-2.7
4.5
6
-0.5
0.5
0.8
0.1
13/04/2016
33
13/04/2016
34
17
13/04/2016
Key messages
Growth in developing Asia softens to 5.7% in 2016 and
2017, from 5.9% last year
PRC growth moderating to 6.5% in 2016 and 6.3% in 2017
underscores the importance of supply-side reforms
India growth projected at 7.4% in 2016 and 7.8% in 2017
13/04/2016
35
18