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http://www.finance.gov.pk/mefp/MEFP_201314_201516.
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http://www.slideshare.net/hjhabib/internationalmonetary-fund-imf-33325666
With economies around the world on the verge of collapsing. Some are pointing to the IMF as a potential
saviour of the world economy. They argue that the IMF can play a key role in avoiding financial crisis and
restoring confidence to a battered international economy. Yet, at the same time many view the IMF with
disdain, arguing that their intervention causes more problems than it solves
International monitory Fund has supports Pakistan in restructuring its economy structural reforms suggested by IMF
and implemented by the Pakistani governments. IMF always pushes government to make good living standard of
peoples of Pakistan. It provides the technical as well as material support to carry out different reforms in Pakistan. In
this research paper attempt has been made to see that how the institution of IMF helps to increase the assistance to
see Pakistan as a developed state of the world, because, IMF play a vittles role to stabilize the Pakistani economy
but on its own conditions. It maintains a high level merits while giving the aid. An attempt has also been made to see
that how and in which condition IMF support Pakistan to improve the Pakistan s Balance of Payments deficits.
Background
Macroeconomic imbalances and longstanding structural impediments to growth have
prevented full realization of Pakistans potential. Problems in the energy sector, security
concerns, and a difficult investment climate have combined with adverse shocks to
undermine economic performance in the past decade. As a result, GDP growth has only
averaged 3 percent over the past few years, well below what is needed to provide jobs for
the rising labor force and to reduce poverty. With the population still increasing rapidly, per
capita income growth has lagged behind many emerging economies.
Prior to the onset of the current IMF-supported program, the fiscal deficit widened, driven
by weak tax collections, energy sector subsidies, and increased provincial government
spending. Domestic deficit financing crowded out private sector borrowing and contributed
to inflation. The external position weakened significantly, and, reinforced by an absence of
access to external market financing, central bank reserves declined to critical levels.
The government and the IMF agreed the most important issues were: (1) the very large fiscal
deficit, which could no longer be financed; (2) the critically low level of international reserves;
and (3) the need for structural reformsparticularly in the energy sectorto get the economy
out of the low-growth trap it has been mired in for years. The program aggressively tackles all
threethe deficit will come down from 8 percent of GDP to around 3 percent of GDP over 3
years, international reserves will be rebuilt to sustainable levels, and structural bottlenecks will
be significantly eased.
Once the government addresses these core issues they can tackle other important challenges, but
without stabilization first, the economy will be too unstable to support the other efforts.
3. The program may address the right issues, but in the wrong order.
With the economy in serious trouble, Pakistan didnt have the luxury of postponing key
stabilization measures.
Some have argued the program errs in focusing first on economic stabilization and then on
growth. Others wanted to focus on improved tax collections before increases in tax rates.
Likewise, some feel that energy supply should have been increased first, with tariff increases
later. Lets take these in turn.
If Pakistan wanted to postpone its stabilization efforts to focus on growth stimulus, how would
the government pay for the postponement? And how would it finance the stimulus? Unlike the
United States, which can sustain very large deficits because the world is willing to buy U.S.
government bonds, Pakistan doesnt have this luxury. Moreover, even if you could finance it,
how effective will temporary stimulus be if investors know the government has not yet addressed
underlying imbalances?
On improving tax collections and energy supply improvements, these reforms take years to bear
fruit. Tax administration reforms will take 2-3 years to generate significant improvements in
revenues. Energy supply enhancements can take even longer. So while it was essential to start
those at the beginning of the program, the government made the wise decision to include quick
wins early on to address the vulnerabilities while the reforms with longer gestation periods are
ramping up.
4. IMF policies will hurt the poor, who will pay the brunt of the adjustment.
The program will broaden the tax base, and cut subsidies for the rich, while maintaining
low energy prices for the lowest consumers and increasing public spending on the poorest.
In this program, deficit reduction will come not from cutting education and health programs, but
mostly from raising revenues. This involves bringing people into the tax net by eliminating
loopholes and special privileges, and by improving tax administration and enforcement. In
Pakistan, a country of 180 million people, only 1.2 million individuals and firms file income tax
returns, of which about half are corporate filers. That must change so that more of the burden
falls on those who can most afford to pay.
Energy subsidies mostly benefit a small proportion of the population. The wealthiest are those
who consume the most energy, so an across-the-board subsidy helps them most. The rest of the
population has to endure 8-10 hours a day of load shedding during the summer months without
being able to afford the private generators of the rich. Under the program, the lowest
consumption levels will continue to be subsidized, while prices will go up to fully cover costs for
the wealthiest. Energy supply will be better and load-shedding will fall.
The program also includes higher social spending. The 2013/14 budget includes a significant rise
in education spending. The program also entails a large increase in targeted transfers to the
poorest, through the expansion of the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP), a national cashtransfer scheme. The government will expand the program with the help of donors, which
currently reaches 4.9 million households, to reach 6.6 million families. The stipend has increased
by about 20 percent, and it will be adjusted for inflation in the future.
5. The program will generate recession; hurt the economy and the business sector.
Growth will initially fall, but will be much higher over time.
In the short-run it is true that fiscal adjustment will reduce growth. But continued instability
would hurt growth much more by pushing the economy into crisis. The government has geared
its structural reforms to enhance growth in the medium- and long-term. These reforms include
measures to ease the energy bottlenecks that strangle economic activity, and steps to promote
trade, improve the business climate and the competitiveness of Pakistani industry. More
efficiency and competition will help generate more investment and millions of new domestic
jobs.
6. This program is doomed to fail as did previous programs.
While success is by no mean guaranteed, this is an historic chance to fix long-standing
economic problems and put the country on a higher growth path.
The governments program aims to overhaul some of the structural deficiencies that have
plagued the countrys economic prospects, while pursuing, at the same time sound
macroeconomic policies and protecting the most vulnerable from the effects of fiscal
consolidation, through the expansion of social safety nets. Program design has been adjusted to
take into consideration the lessons of past failures and the IMF is willing to be flexible to adapt
to unexpected developments. Support from other institutions is being mobilized to help.
Prospects for success are enhanced by a democratically elected government firmly committed to
doing what it needs to do to fix these long-standing problems and achieve its objective of making
life better for 180 million Pakistanis.
https://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2013/12/19/pakistan-the-realities-of-economic-reform/
The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank were created in 1944 at a conference in
Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, and are now based in Washington, DC. The IMF was originally
designed to promote international economic cooperation and provide its member countries with short
term loans so they could trade with other countries (achieve balance of payments). Since the debt
crisis of the 1980's, the IMF has assumed the role of bailing out countries during financial crises
(caused in large part by currency speculation in the global casino economy) with emergency loan
packages tied to certain conditions, often referred to as structural adjustment policies (SAPs). The
IMF now acts like a global loan shark, exerting enormous leverage over the economies of more than
60 countries. These countries have to follow the IMF's policies to get loans, international assistance,
and even debt relief. Thus, the IMF decides how much debtor countries can spend on education,
health care, and environmental protection. The IMF is one of the most powerful institutions on Earth
-- yet few know how it works.
1.
The IMF has created an immoral system of modern day colonialism that SAPs the poor
The IMF -- along with the WTO and the World Bank -- has put the global economy on a path of
greater inequality and environmental destruction. The IMF's and World Bank's structural
adjustment policies (SAPs) ensure debt repayment by requiring countries to cut spending on
education and health; eliminate basic food and transportation subsidies; devalue national
currencies to make exports cheaper; privatize national assets; and freeze wages. Such belttightening measures increase poverty, reduce countries' ability to develop strong domestic
economies and allow multinational corporations to exploit workers and the environment A recent
IMF loan package for Argentina, for example, is tied to cuts in doctors' and teachers' salaries
and decreases in social security payments.. The IMF has made elites from the Global South
more accountable to First World elites than their own people, thus undermining the democratic
process.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Asian owned timber company called Barama received a logging concession that was 1.5 times
the total amount of land all the indigenous communities were granted. Barama also received a
five-year tax holiday. The IMF forced Haiti to open its market to imported, highly subsidized US
rice at the same time it prohibited Haiti from subsidizing its own farmers. A US corporation
called Early Rice now sells nearly 50 percent of the rice consumed in Haiti.
6.
7.
8.
9.
The IMF bails out rich bankers, creating a moral hazard and greater instability in the
global economy
The IMF routinely pushes countries to deregulate financial systems. The removal of regulations
that might limit speculation has greatly increased capital investment in developing country
financial markets. More than $1.5 trillion crosses borders every day. Most of this capital is
invested short-term, putting countries at the whim of financial speculators. The Mexican 1995
peso crisis was partly a result of these IMF policies. When the bubble popped, the IMF and US
government stepped in to prop up interest and exchange rates, using taxpayer money to bail out
Wall Street bankers. Such bailouts encourage investors to continue making risky, speculative
bets, thereby increasing the instability of national economies. During the bailout of Asian
countries, the IMF required governments to assume the bad debts of private banks, thus making
the public pay the costs and draining yet more resources away from social programs.
10.
policies. Since the late 1980s, it has been imposing various conditions
on successive governments increasingly crippled by debt servicing.
Surprisingly, one finds that almost all discussion centres on Pakistans
failure to meet targets set by the IMF and hardly any on what success
might mean for Pakistans own development.
Typical IMF conditions comprise contractionary macroeconomic
policies (fiscal and monetary), inflation targeting regimes, financial
deregulation and increased openness to international capital flows,
trade liberalisation (including reduction of tariff and non-tariff
barriers) and privatisation of public-sector enterprises. In short, an
abandonment of state-led development strategy. Given space
constraints, let us confine ourselves for the time being to analysing the
effect of IMF conditions on fiscal policy in general and government
spending in particular.
One might begin by asking what the aim of macroeconomic policy
should be in a developing country. First and foremost, it should
facilitate and never impede long-run development goals. There is
enough evidence now to suggest that it should also be counter-cyclical.
In other words, government spending should expand to fill in for a fall
in private spending during a downturn and contract during an upturn.
The IMFs argument that government spending will crowd out private
investment does not stand up to scrutiny, nor is it backed by empirical
evidence. Indeed, as research by the United Nations Conference on
Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the United Nations
Development Programme has shown, government spending, especially
on infrastructure, health, education, technology and communication,
has actually had the effect of crowding-in private investment in a
number of countries (UNCTAD 2003, Roy and Weeks 2004). This is
especially true in times of crisis when private investors become even
more risk averse.
I write with regard to the article by Natalya Naqvi titled The IMF and
us, which appeared on August 27, 2012. Ms Naqvi has a go at
everyones favorite bugaboo: the International Monetary Fund. Her
article is interesting but I beg to differ with much of what she says.
However, since there is only so much I can write here, she is welcome to
get in touch with me via email.
Ms Naqvis first sentence that the IMF has had a key influence on the
conduct of macroeconomic policies in Pakistan leaves me bewildered.
Considering we have never implemented an IMF-financed programme
(save the one during the previous regime or so it is claimed), this
postulate has no merit at all. However, I will concede that some reforms
were undertaken as part of our agreements with the IMF in the areas of
central bank autonomy, prudential supervision, open market
operations, interest and exchange rate flexibility, and privatisation
(even if that was handled by financing from the World Bank). In other
areas, and especially on the fiscal side the mother of all evils
Pakistan has implemented absolutely nothing, despite IMF
conditionality. Indeed, if anything, we keep regressing, adding new
exemptions, concessions and amnesty schemes, so that we have the
most regressive, distortionary, dysfunctional, fragmented and corrupt
fiscal system in the world.
So I would put it to the writer that the IMFs imprint on our
macroeconomic policies has been marginal and fleeting at best. It is for
a very good reason that Pakistan has been given the undistinguished
title of a country characterised by start-stop adjustment in the IMF.
assured that inflation was being caused by the price of onions and
potatos, and had nothing to do with the stance of macroeconomic
policies. With economic advice like that, no wonder her government
was toppled twice.
uncertainty on capital flows. However, going forward reserves are expected to surpass
3-months of imports by the end of FY 2014/2015.
It said despite some difficulties, the authorities reform program remains broadly on
track, with the government and SBP meeting most quantitative performance criteria for
end of June and end of September 2014. The authorities are committed to taking the
necessary corrective actions for missed targets, and with these actions, they will be ontrack to meet their objectives for end-December.
The mission was pleased that the government met the indicative targets on social
transfers to the poor under the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP). Staff
welcomed the governments efforts to expand support to the poor through the BISP to
4.8 million eligible families by the end of this year.
The mission was encouraged by the strong fiscal performance achieved during FY
2013/2014, and by the authorities determination to further lower the deficit to 4.8
percent of GDP in the current fiscal year. Progress is being made in broadening the tax
base by eliminating tax concessions and exemptions granted through Statutory
Regulatory Orders (SROs), strengthening anti-money laundering legislation, and
implementing tax administration reforms to enhance compliance and enforcement.
However, continued efforts are needed to improve the tax-to-GDP ratio and create
resources to finance much-needed spending on investment and social development,
while making the taxation system more efficient, transparent and equitable.
The SBP remains committed to a prudent monetary policy stance to assure attainment
of its inflation and reserves accumulation objectives. While legislation to enhance the
SBP autonomy is still in the Parliament, internal reforms are underway to enhance the
central banks effectiveness. Banking sector performance remains strong due to
improved earnings and solvency.
The IMF mission urged the authorities to deepen their structural reform agenda in order
to improve Pakistans competitiveness in global markets. In the energy sector, declining
world oil prices and the expected start of imports of liquefied natural gas provide an
opportunity to improve energy supply and continue tariff reforms while containing price
increases to consumers. High priority needs to be placed on enhancing governance and
efficiency of energy firms, and in strengthening the capacity of regulatory bodies. The
exchange
stability
and
maintaining
orderly
exchange
into
currency. Member
countries were
also
following
diverse
exchange policies. These events simply prove that IMF was not able to
maintain
uniform
international
exchange
system
which
is
big
disadvantage.
3.
Non-removal
restrictions by IMF
of
foreign
exchange
One of the important objectives of the IMF has been to remove foreign
exchange restrictions which retard the growth of global trade. Still, member
countries follow unhealthy practices of exchange controls and multiple
exchange rates. Consequently, the international business is adversely
affected.
4. Inadequate resources
The resources at the disposal of the IMF are not adequate to cater to the
needs of member countries which is a setback of IMF. Uncertain capital
inflows into the international financial system necessitates the strengthening
of the fund resources. The resources of the fund may be enhanced by raising
the quota. But developed countries are reluctant to increase the quota of the
fund.
allocation,
reduction
in
trade
barrier, strengthening
of
the
The conditional clauses imposed by IMF after 1995 are pretty stiff which are
big disadvantages of IMF. To state a few:
One of the disadvantages of IMF is that it has failed to play an effective role
in international monetary matters. For example, it does not provide facilities
for short term credit arrangements. This has lead to the swap arrangements
in favor of rich countries. At one stage, the IMF was regarded as rich
countries club. These rich countries are partial towards the issues faced by
poor countries.
As reported in The Hindu (May 2, 2007), Venezuelas president Hugo Chavez
announced his countrys decision to leave IMF and the World Bank. He
accused them of exploiting small countries. He branded the IMF and the
Wold Bank as mechanisms of American imperialism. Moreover, the
OPEC nations leader Mr. Chavez said: we are going to withdraw. and let
them pay back what they took from us. He issued an order to his Finance
Minister to begin proceedings to withdraw Venezuela from both IMF and
World Bank.
Though IMF funds are helpful in many ways, there are certain areas where
the IMF fails to address the member nations. The disadvantages of
IMF are discussed briefly below.
1.
approach by IMF
Passive
The IMF has been passive in its approach and not been effective in
promoting
exchange
stability
and
maintaining
orderly
exchange
into
currency. Member
countries were
also
following
diverse
exchange policies. These events simply prove that IMF was not able to
maintain
uniform
international
exchange
system
which
is
big
disadvantage.
3.
Non-removal
restrictions by IMF
of
foreign
exchange
One of the important objectives of the IMF has been to remove foreign
exchange restrictions which retard the growth of global trade. Still, member
countries follow unhealthy practices of exchange controls and multiple
exchange rates. Consequently, the international business is adversely
affected.
4. Inadequate resources
The resources at the disposal of the IMF are not adequate to cater to the
needs of member countries which is a setback of IMF. Uncertain capital
inflows into the international financial system necessitates the strengthening
of the fund resources. The resources of the fund may be enhanced by raising
the quota. But developed countries are reluctant to increase the quota of the
fund.
allocation,
reduction
in
trade
barrier, strengthening
of
the
The conditional clauses imposed by IMF after 1995 are pretty stiff which are
big disadvantages of IMF. To state a few:
One of the disadvantages of IMF is that it has failed to play an effective role
in international monetary matters. For example, it does not provide facilities
for short term credit arrangements. This has lead to the swap arrangements
in favor of rich countries. At one stage, the IMF was regarded as rich
countries club. These rich countries are partial towards the issues faced by
poor countries.
As reported in The Hindu (May 2, 2007), Venezuelas president Hugo Chavez
announced his countrys decision to leave IMF and the World Bank. He
accused them of exploiting small countries. He branded the IMF and the
Wold Bank as mechanisms of American imperialism. Moreover, the
OPEC nations leader Mr. Chavez said: we are going to withdraw. and let
them pay back what they took from us. He issued an order to his Finance
Minister to begin proceedings to withdraw Venezuela from both IMF and
World Bank.
Criticism of IMF
Criticisms of IMF include:
1. Conditions of Loans
On giving loans to countries, the IMF make the loan conditional on the implementation
of certain economic policies. These policies tend to involve:
For example, in the Asian crisis of 1997, many countries such as Indonesia,
Malaysia and Thailand were required by IMF to pursue tight monetary policy (higher
interest rates) and tight fiscal policy to reduce the budget deficit and strengthen
exchange rates. However, these policies caused a minor slowdown to turn into a serious
recession with mass unemployment.
In 2001, Argentina was forced into a similar policy of fiscal restraint. This led to a
decline in investment in public services which arguably damaged the economy.
2. Exchange rate reforms. When the IMF intervened in Kenya in the 1990s, they made
the Central bank remove controls over flows of capital. The consensus was that this
decision made it easier for corrupt politicians to transfer money out of the economy
(known as the Goldenberg scandal, BBC link). Critics argue this is another example of
how the IMF failed to understand the dynamics of the country that they were dealing
with insisting on blanket reforms.
The economist Joseph Stiglitz has criticised the more monetarist approach of the IMF in
recent years. He argues it is failing to take the best policy to improve the welfare of
developing countries saying the IMF was not participating in a conspiracy, but it was
reflecting the interests and ideology of the Western financial community.
3. Devaluations In earlier days, the IMF have been criticised for allowing inflationary
devaluations.
4. Neo Liberal Criticisms There is also criticism of neo-liberal policies such as
privatisation. Arguably these free market policies were not always suitable for the
situation of the country. For example, privatisation can create lead to the creation of
private monopolies who exploit consumers.
5. Free market criticisms of IMF
As well as being criticised for implementing free market reforms Other criticise the IMF
for being too interventionist. Believers in free markets argue that it is better to let capital
markets operate without attempts at intervention. They argue attempts to influence
exchange rates only make things worse it is better to allow currencies to reach their
market level. [criticism of IMF]
There is also a criticism that bailout countries with large debt creates moral
hazard. Because of the possibility of getting bailed out it encourages people to borrow
more.