Daily Markets Update

11 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
Daily Markets Update
1 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
Fundamental Outlook:
EUR back to square

It was certainly a day of two halves yesterday with the initial reaction in Europe to the €750 bln stabilization package pull ing the EUR up to a 1.3095 high,
just shy of reported options barriers at 1.31, but that was it and the second half of the session saw relentless selling until we ended back at NY closing levels
from Friday. Triggers for the sell-off?
Yesterday, after European policy makers released the bailout plan to Greece worth 750 billion euros, which were formed by the government providing 440
billion euros, 60 billion euros from the EU's budget and 250 billion euros from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Also alongside the aid, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet assured that the central bank was going to buy government and private bonds as a way to continue
avoiding the credit crisis from spreading, details of the plan were still not released although not all 22 council members agreed on the program.
Furthermore, the central bank is also going to provide liquidity to banks, as much as they demand for three months and six months and continue the swap
line with the Federal Reserve Bank. All these actions are helping restoring liquidity to activate the business cycle.
From the aid provided from officials to help Greece tame the highest deficit in the EU, restored the long lost confidence as global stock markets rallied while
the euro rebounded from a 14-month low.
As the outlook for Europe is improving as finally actions are taken to avoid the spread of the sovereign debt, in the UK, the outlook remains blurry especially
after the outcome of the elections, did not have a clear winner as David Cameron leader of the Conservatives was not able to get 326 seats of Parliament.
These elections were spicy especially as they ended without a majority in Parliament, and this made them the first since 1974 . The attention remains on the
government, especially as they have their hands full with taming the deficit.
Debt and equity markets responded a bit more positively to the package with intra-Europe bond spreads narrowing dramatically and European bourses all
up around 5% which was almost matched by Wall St.
The economic week continues with positive sentiment after last week global stock markets were shook from the instability in markets that were around the
debt crisis of Europe and UK elections that had investors confused causing them to panic which is why we saw a major sell-off wave appear in markets.
Standard & Poor's believes the debt of the UK will climb to 77% of GDP during this year, before rallying to 100% by 2014.
The UK government is dealing with a very difficult situation, as they can not borrow more to shore economic growth that has narrowed during the first
quarter as a result of the coldest weather in three decades while the rallying unemployment only made consumption more curtailed.
The Bank of England yesterday decided to continue to pause the APF program worth 200 billion pounds for the fourth month, while leaving interest rates
steady at 0.50%, to resume recovering economic growth.
The UK in the fourth quarter expanded by 0.4% while in the first quarter grew by 0.2%, and this meant that UK stepped out of the worst recession since
WWII, but the question is, while they be able to narrow the worst deficit since the early 1930's?!
The debt around Europe continues to slaughter investors' confidence while undermining growth prospects, so now all eyes are on Greece's situation, if they
will be able to control their debt or not, while in the UK, if the new government will actually reduce the debt or not, or will they be helpless and seek aid from
the EU and IMF?…
EURUSD
The Technical out look for the EUR/USD Tuesday, April the 11th, 2010, level 1.2729
Position Strategy: current position: FLAT, have taken profit on LONG position from 1.2916 (open Sunday) at 1.3040
Enter LONG if we break 1.2881 with a stop 1.2659 target 1.3080
Enter SHORT on a rebound near 1.2771 or on a break of 1.2678 with stop 1.2881 target 1.2519 first for 1.2329 next
With the break of 1.2771 minor support suggests that rebound from 1.2519 has finished at 1.3093, ahead of the 1.3114 resistance as expected
on the weekly commentary. The daily bias is flipped back to the downside for retesting 1.2519 low first. Below 1.2519 will target key support
level of 1.2329 next. On the upside, above 1.2881 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring more sideway consolidations
above 1.2519.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 are treated as correction to long term up trend from
0.8823 and fall form 1.5143 is the third leg of such correction. Further decline should be seen to 1.1639 key support level and possibly further
to 100% projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.5143 at 1.1433. On the upside, break of break of 1.3692 resistance is needed to be the first
signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. the EURO IS IN A BEAR TREND as far that 1.4217 is not broken up
In the long term picture, considering the five wave impulsive structure of the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of
1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to
1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 support to contain downside and bring another long term up trend. However, note that sustained break of 1.1209
key fibonacci level will dampen this view and open up the case of a take on parity.
USD/CHF:
The technical outlook for USD/CHF Tuesday, April the 11th, 2010, level 1.1077
Position Strategy: Current position :

Enter LONG if we break 1.1133 with a stop 1.1021 target 1.1244 first for 1.1673 next
The break of 1.1084 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 1.1244 might be completed at 1.0922 already but we need to break 1.1333
to confirm this view. The daily bias is flipped back to the upside for retesting 1.1244 first and break there will bring rally resumption to
161.8% projection of 1.0131 to 1.0897 from 1.0434 at 1.1673 next. On the downside, in case of another fall, we'd continue to expect strong
support from 1.0746/0923 support zone to conclude the correction and bring rise resumption.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, sustained trading above the medium term falling trend line, light brown line
on the chart, affirms our view that whole correction from 1.2296 has completed with three waves down to 0.9916. Rise from 0.9916 is
tentatively treated as resumption of the whole rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 and should now target a retest on 1.1963/2296 resistance zone.
On the downside, break of 1.0434 support is needed to indicate that such rise from 0.9916 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish.
In the bigger picture, In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish divergence condition in
monthly RSI & Stochastic. Rise from 0.9916 is set to resume the rise from 0.9634. Such development will favor the case that long term down
trend from 1.8305 has reversed and would favor stronger rise to 1.3283 resistance and above.
EUR/CHF:
The technical outlook for EUR/CHF Tuesday, April the 11th, 2010, level 1.4087
Position Strategy:
Current position : FLAT, Have been stopped on LONG position from 1.4297 at 1.4225
Enter LONG if we break 1.4294 with a stop 1.4051 target 1.4405
Enter SHORT on a clear break of 1.4000 with stop 1.4294 target 1.3869
The EUR/CHF's sharp fall from 1.4333 and subsequent break of 1.4141 minor support suggests that rebound from 1.4003 is possibly
completed. The daily bias is flipped back to the downside for retesting 1.4003 low first. Nevertheless, note that decisive break there is needed
to confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.6368 to 1.4315 from 1.5138 at 1.3869. Otherwise, choppier sideway trading could
be seen above 1.4003, with risk of another rise, before down trend finally resumes.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, whole long term down trend from 2007 high of 1.6827 is still in progress and
further fall should be seen to next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.6368 to 1.4315 from 1.5138 at 1.3869. On the upside,
break of 1.4465 resistance is needed to be first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. We'd expect such down trend to
extend towards 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984 in the longer run.
GBP/USD:
The technical outlook for GBP/USD Tuesday, April the 11th, 2010, level 1.4836
Position Strategy: Current position: Flat, Have stopped LONG position from 1.4939 at 1.4849
Enter SHORT on a clear break of 1.4832 (level very near of current level) with stop 1.5053 target 1.4475 first and 1.3848 next
Enter LONG if we break 1.5053 with a stop 1.4849 target near 1.5250
While the rebound from 1.4475 was stronger than expected, it's limited below 1.5125 resistance and structurally, rebound from 1.4475 is still
viewed as a correction. A clear break of 1.4832 minor support suggests that such correction is possibly finished at 1.5053 already. The daily
bias is flipped back to the downside for a retest of 1.4475 low. Further break of 1.4475 will target 100% projection at 1.3848 next. On the
upside, above 1.5053 will bring another rise and turn focus back to whether GBP/USD could maintain momentum to get through 1.5521 key
resistance.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, as noted before, corrective rise from 1.3503 should have completed at 1.7043
already and fall from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the whole down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Such fall should target
61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043 at 1.2310 after taking out 1.3503 low. On the upside, break of 1.5221 resistance is needed to
be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (1985 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature
of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed
and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for 61.8% projection (2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043) at 1.2310 next.
AUD/USD
The technical outlook for AUD/USD Tuesday, April the 11th, 2010, level 0.8980
Position Strategy: Current position: FLAT, have stopped SHORT position from 0.8989 at 0.9008 (at the opening Sunday)
Enter LONG on a break of 0.9112 with a stop 0.9004 target 0.9205
Enter SHORT on a break of 0.8917 with stop 0.9091 target 0.8709 first for 08577 next
The AUD/USD's fall from 0.9077 suggests that a temporary top is in place and turns intraday bias neutral for the moment. While anther rise
cannot be ruled out, we'd continue to expect upside to be limited by 0.9091 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 0.9324 to 0.8715 at
0.9091) and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8917 minor support will flip intraday bias to the downside. Break of 0.8709 will target 0.8577 key
support next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term rising channel revives that case that
medium term rally from 2008 low of 6.008 is finished at 0.9404 already. Deeper decline should now be seen towards 0.8577 key support first
(23.6% retracement of 0.6008 to 0.9404 at 0.8603). Decisive break there will confirm medium term reversal and should target 0.7702/8262
support zone next. On the upside, break of 0.9404 is needed to confirm medium term rally resumption. Otherwise, outlook will now be neutral
at best.
In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above
76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new uptrend which will extend the
long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 cluster support holds and expect an eventual
break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open
up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.
USD/JPY
The technical outlook for USD/JPY Tuesday, April the 11th, 2010, level 92.49
Position Strategy: Current position: LONG on a break of 93.22 with a stop 92.20 target near 94.50
Enter SHORT on a break of 90.87 with stop 92.81 target near 88.13
Enter LONG on a break of 93.20 with a stop 91.50 target near 94.50
With 90.87 minor support intact, the strong rebound from 88.25 might still continue. However, as discussed in the weekly commentary, a short
term top is at least in place at 94.97 and even in the most bullish scenario, USD/JPY should stay below 94.97 for a while. On the downside,
below 90.87 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 88.13 key support.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the exaggerated volatility last week mixed up the overall outlook in USD/JPY
and we'd stay neutral first. On the downside, break of 88.13 support will indicate that rise from 84.81 has completed at 94.97 already. The
three waves corrective structure will in turn indicate that down trend from 124.13 is not completed yet and would bring another fall to 84.81
and below. On the upside, though, break of 94.97 will reaffirm the case that 84.81 is already the long term bottom and will target 101.43/65
medium term resistance zone for confirming this bullish case.
In the long term picture, we will stay neutral first even if the downside momentum is clearly diminishing and bullish convergence condition in
weekly oscillators; the long term down trend in USD/JPY might have reversed. Focus now turns to 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone
and decisive break there will also break the lower high lower low pattern since 124.13. This will suggest that a long term bottom is in place
and another rising leg of the sideway pattern that started at 79.75 in 1995 should then be in progress for upper side of the range at 147.68.
EUR/JPY
The technical outlook for EUR/JPY Tuesday, April the 11th, 2010, level 117.1
Position Strategy: Current position: FLAT, have been stopped on SHORT position from 114.6 at 118.85
Enter LONG on a clear break of 122.35 stop at 119.64 target 125.4
Enter SHORT on a clear break of 116.66 with stop 118.80 target near 110.69
The EUR/JPY's sharp fall from 122.29 suggests that a temporary top is formed there and turns bias neutral. While the stronger than expected
rebound from 110.69 dampens our immediate bearish view, upside is still limited below 122.35 resistance. Structurally, such rebound from
110.69 could still be viewed as a correction. Below 116.66 the lower band of the descending channel will suggest that such correction is
completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 110.69 low. On the upside, above 122.29 will bring another rise and
will put focus back to whether EUR/JPY could sustain momentum to get through 127.88 key resistance.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the break of 112.10 support indicates that whole long term down trend from
2008 high of 169.96 has resumed. Outlook will now remain bearish as long as 127.88 resistance holds and further fall should be seen to 61.8%
projection of 169.96 to 112.10 from 139.21 at 103.45 which is close to 100 psychological level. However, note that we're slightly favoring the
case that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Hence, we'll start to watch out for reversal signal between 2000 low of 88.96 and 100
psychological level.
In the long term picture, the uptrend from 88.96 (2000 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave
structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. It should develop into a three wave
correction with first wave completed at 112.10, second wave completed at 139.21. The third falling leg is now in progress but would be
contained above 88.96 key support level. We'll hold on this view unless fall from 169.96 shows sign of acceleration.
GBP/JPY
The technical outlook for GBP/JPY Tuesday, April the 11th, 2010, level 136.75
Position Strategy: Current position : Flat. Have stopped LONG position from 139.41 at 138.51
Enter LONG on a clear break of 139.36 stop at 136.54 target 145.94
Enter SHORT on a break of 133.12 with stop 136.23 target near 129.73 first and 118.81 next
The GBP/JPY's sharp fall from 140.55 suggests that a temporary top is formed there and turns bias neutral for the moment. While the stronger
than expected rebound dampens our immediate bearish view, the upside was still limited below 141.58 resistance. Structurally, rebound from
129.73 could still be treated as a correction. Below 134.68 minor support will indicate that such correction is finished and will flip intraday
bias back to the downside for retesting 129.73 low first. Further break of 129.73 will target a retest of 118.18 low. On the upside, above 140.55
will bring another rise and focus will then be on whether GBP/JPY can sustain momentum to get through 145.94 key resistance level.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, in the bigger picture, last week's development revives that case that recovery from 118.81, which
is treated as correction in the larger down trend from 2007 high of 251.09, has completed at 163.05 already. Fall from 163.05 is tentatively
treated as resumption of such long term down trend and should target 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06 next, which
is close to 100 psychological level. On the upside, break of 145.94 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain
bearish.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated
as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of
the correction from 118.81.
USD/CAD
The technical outlook for USD/CAD Tuesday, April the 11th, 2010, level 1.0254
Position Strategy: Current position : SHORT at 1.0277 with stop 1.0467 target 1.0030
Enter LONG on a clear break of 1.0467 stop at 1.028 target near 1.0730
With 1.0467 minor resistance intact, USD/CAD's fall from 1.0734 might still continue. The deeper than expected decline dampens our
immediate bullish view and focus is now on whether USD/CAD could sustain downside momentum for a break of 0.9929 low. On the upside,
above 1.0467 minor resistance will suggest that fall from 1.0734 is completed and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 1.0734
resistance.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the strong break of upper band of the descending channel serves as the first
alert that USD/CAD has made a medium term bottom at 0.9929, on bullish convergence condition in weekly RSI. Decisive break of 1.0779
resistance, will confirm this case and turn outlook bullish. In such case, stronger rally should be seen towards 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to
0.9929 at 1.1866. But the break below 1.0280 support have dampen the bullish case now and may turn focus back to 0.9929 low instead.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly,
the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are
developing into a long term sideway pattern. Hence even in case of another fall, we'd expect strong support above 2007 low of 0.9056 to
contain down side. On the other hand, another strong medium term rise should be seen after fall from 1.3063 complete and such rise should
target a test on the upper side of the long term range near to 1.3063.
GOLD
The technical outlook for GOLD: Tuesday, April the 11th, 2010, level 1210.85
Position Strategy: Current position : Flat,

Enter SHORT on a break of 1156.2 with stop 1751 target 1044.5
Enter LONG on a clear break of 1227.5 stop at 1193 target near 1340.7
The daily bias remains on the upside and further rally could be seen to 1227.5 high. However, as note before, we continue as treating rise from
1044.5 as the second wave of the consolidation from 1227.5, we'd expect strong resistance at 1227.5 to conclude the rise from 1044.5 and
bring reversal. Below 1193 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside first. Further break of 1156.2 will turn outlook bearish
for a test on 1044.5 support. Though, note that decisive break of 1227.5 will confirm up trend resumption for 1300 psychological level next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, our still preferred view is that price actions from 1227.5 are consolidation in
the larger up trend with first leg completed at 1044.5. Rise from there represents the second leg and should conclude after being limited by
1227.5 and bring the third down leg towards 1044.5. However, note that sustained trading above 1227.5 high will indicate that the correction
has indeed completed at 1044.5 already and long term up trend is resuming. In such case, Gold should target 100% projection of 931.3 to
1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1340.7 next.
In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation
from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level.
We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.
CrudeOIL
The technical outlook for OIL Tuesday, April the 11th, 2010, level 75.86
Current position : FLAT,

Enter SHORT on a break of 74.49 with stop 76.55 target 69.5
Enter LONG on a clear break of 78.19 stop at 76.55 target near 80.50
No Change: Crude oil's sharp fall last week indicates that rise from 69.50 is completed at 87.15 on a double top reversal pattern (87.05/87.15).
Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to test 69.50 key support next. On the upside, above 78.19
resistance will argue that a temporary bottom is formed and bring consolidations. But we'd expect strong resistance at double top neck line at
80.53 and hours 55 EMA now at 81.55 to limit upside and bring fall resumption.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, in the bigger picture, that medium term rise from 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole
correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Our preferred view is that rise from 33.2 is in form of a three wave structure (73.23, 65.05, ?) and
should be near to completion. Strong resistance is expected around 90 psychological level, which coincide with 50% retracement of 147.27 to
33.2 at 90.24 and 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 73.23 from 65.05 at 89.79, and bring reversal. Hence, even though another rally cannot be ruled
out, upside potential should be limited. On the downside, break of 69.50 support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will
be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 1998 low
of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we still
prefer the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between
76.77/90.24 Fibonacci resistance zone and bring reversal for another low before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
DOW JONES INDU. Future June 2010
The technical outlook for DJI: Tuesday, April the 9th, 2010, level 10651.6
Current position. Flat

Enter SHORT on a break of 10201 with stop 10571 target 9900
Enter LONG on a break of 10914.15 stop at 10770 target near 11196
The DOW dropped sharply to as low as 9865.65 last week before forming a temporary low there and recovered. The daily bias is still on the
downside. As noted previously and following my count we have ended at 11196.65 a full wave and we are now in the correction in wave II. We
may count as a B wave the current rebound have clear the 10661 Fibonacci retracement but the rebound may be limited by the next Fibonacci
retracement at 10865 and another leg down is likely to test again the 9865.65 low. A break of this level may target 9837 projection a level near
9789.9 low. A break of this last level will projected 9327. The 9865 -789.9 support area may to limit downside and bring rally resumption. On
upside a break of 10914.15 will confirm that the correction is over and 9865.65 was the end of wave II and we will target again 11196.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the count suggests that the bear market ended in Mar 09.The anticipated 50% retracement rally
was actually the start of a new 70-80 year super cycle bull market. The three waves up are only Major waves 1-2-3 of Primary wave I of Cycle
wave I of this bull market. The downtrend from 10723.4 to 9789.9 is wave 4 conclude with alternation with the Jun/July downtrend, and hold
the 10% correction, and following our count: we have ended wave I at 11196.65 and we are now in wave II. For remember Wave I is the start of
a super bullish super cycle of 50-70 years and will be followed by a wave II in correction that may be very profound.
TRACK Since April

RECORD 16th, 2010
Current Closed P&L Nb of
Currency Long/Short Open price Price Stop Target Open P&L pips Pips Total P&L pips trades
EUR/USD Flat 0 871 871 7
CHF/USD Flat 0 241 241 6
EUR/CHF Flat 0 94 94 2
GBP/USD Flat 0 452 452 6
AUD/USD Flat 0 -37 -37 5
USD/JPY Long 93.22 92.49 92.2 94.5 -73 193 120 5
EUR/JPY Flat 0 485 485 6
GBP/JPY Flat 0 206 206 6
USD/CAD Short 1.0277 1.0254 1.0467 1.003 23 374 397 6
TOTAL -50 2,879 2,829 49
Current Open P&L Nb of
Markets Long/Short Open price Price Stop points Close P&L pts Total P&L pts trades
Gold Flat 0.00 -28.3 -28.30 3
Oil Flat 0.00 6.11 6.11 5
Dow Jones Flat 0.00 787.6 787.60 3
Monthly
recap
Since April 16 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Total
EUR/USD 247 624 871
CHF/USD -34 275 241
EUR/CHF 94 94
GBP/USD -56 508 452
AUD/USD -145 108 -37
USD/JPY 161 32 193
EUR/JPY -31 516 485
GBP/JPY -97 303 206
USD/CAD 149 225 374
TOTAL 194 2685 2,879
Gold -11.3 -17 -28.30
Oil 1.71 4.4 6.11
Dow Jones 533.6 254 787.60
Economic Calendar
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous
-- GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Apr -- 0.4%
05:45 CHF SECO Consumer Confidence Apr -1 -7
06:00 EUR German CPI M/M Apr F -0.1% -0.1%
06:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Apr F 1.0% 1.0%
06:00 EUR German HICP M/M Apr F -0.1% -0.1%
06:00 EUR German HICP Y/Y Apr F 1.0% 1.0%
06:00 EUR German WPI M/M Apr 0.9% 1.3%
06:00 EUR German WPI Y/Y Apr 5.2% 4.3%
08:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Mar 0.3% 1.0%
08:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Mar 0.6% -0.1%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Mar 0.4% 1.3%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Mar 1.5% 1.4%
09:30 AUD Treasurer Wayne Swan Delivers 2010-11 -- --

Federal Budget Report
11:30 USD NFIB Small Business Optimism Apr -- 86.8
12:30 USD Fed's Jeffrey Lacker Speaks in Greensboro -- --

North Carolina
14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Mar 0.5% 0.6%
14:00 USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism May -- 48.4
17:15 USD Fed's Dennis Lockhart Speaks in Atlanta -- --

Georgia
17:30 USD Fed's Charles Plosser Speaks in Atlanta -- --

Georgia
20:30 USD API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 7) -- 2951K
20:30 USD API U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 7) -- 1459K
20:30 USD API U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 7) -- 1372K
21:00 USD ABC Consumer Confidence (MAY 9) -- -47
23:50 JPY Official Reserve Assets Apr -- $1042.7B
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
01:30 AUD Home Loans Mar -3.0% -1.8%
01:30 AUD Investment Lending Mar -- -1.1%
01:30 AUD Value of Loans M/M Mar -- -4.4%
05:00 JPY Leading Index Mar P -- 98.5
05:00 JPY Coincident Index Mar P -- 100.5
06:00 EUR German GDP s.a. Q/Q Q1 P 0.0% 0.0%
06:00 EUR German GDP w.d.a. Y/Y Q1 P 1.2% -2.4%
06:00 EUR German GDP n.s.a. Y/Y Q1 P 1.2% -1.7%
06:45 EUR French GDP Q/Q Q1 P 0.3% 0.6%
06:45 EUR French GDP Y/Y Q1 P 1.4% -0.3%
06:45 EUR French CPI M/M Apr 0.3% 0.5%
06:45 EUR French CPI Y/Y Apr 1.7% 1.6%
06:45 EUR French HICP M/M Apr 0.3% 0.5%
06:45 EUR French HICP Y/Y Apr 1.9% 1.7%
06:45 EUR French CPI Ex Tobacco Index Apr 119.98 119.58
06:45 EUR French Current Account (EUR) Mar -- -3.6B
07:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices M/M Apr 0.4% 0.5%
07:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Apr 0.6% 0.0%
08:00 EUR Italian GDP s.a. and w.d.a. Q/Q Q1 P 0.3% -0.3%
08:00 EUR Italian GDP s.a. and w.d.a. Y/Y Q1 P 0.1% -3.0%
08:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change Apr -20.0K -32.9K
08:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Apr 4.8% 4.8%
08:30 GBP Average Weekly Earnings inc Bonus 3M/Y 2.2% 2.3%
Mar
08:30 GBP Average Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/Y 2.0% 1.7%

Mar
08:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Mar 8.0% 8.0%
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP s.a. Q/Q Q1 A 0.2% 0.0%
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP s.a. Y/Y Q1 A 0.5% -2.2%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production s.a. M/M 1.0% 0.9%

Mar
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. Y/Y 6.4% 4.1%

Mar
09:30 GBP BoE Quarterly Inflation Report -- --
11:00 USD Bloomberg Global Confidence May -- 67.57
11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 7) -- 4.0%
12:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Mar 1.6B 1.4B
12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Mar 0.3% 0.1%
12:30 USD Trade Balance Mar -$39.9B -$39.7B
14:15 USD Fed's Eric Rosengren Speaks in Atlanta -- --

Georgia
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 7) -- 2755K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 7) -- 1257K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 7) -- 573K

Georgia
17:15 USD Fed's James Bullard Speaks in Nashville -- --

Tennessee
18:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement Apr -$20.0B -$20.9B
22:30 NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing -- 56.3

Index Apr
22:45 NZD Food Prices M/M Apr -- 0.2%
23:01 GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence Apr 73 72
23:50 JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (JPY) Mar -- 778.0B
23:50 JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (JPY) Mar 1482.0B 1119.0B
23:50 JPY Current Account Total (JPY) Mar 2212.8B 1470.6B
23:50 JPY Bank Lending Banks inc Trusts Y/Y Apr -- -1.8%
23:50 JPY Bank Lending Banks ex Trusts Y/Y Apr -- -2.0%
23:50 JPY Bank Lending Banks Adjustments Y/Y Apr -- -1.7%
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Apr 2.5% 2.6%
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M3 Y/Y Apr 2.0% 2.0%
Thursday, May 13, 2010
-- JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook Apr -- 47.0
-- JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current Apr -- 47.4
01:00 AUD RBA's Philip Lowe Speaks in Sydney -- --

Australia
01:30 AUD Employment Change Apr 22.5K 19.6K
01:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Apr 5.3% 5.3%
01:30 AUD Full Time Employment Change Apr -- 30.1K
01:30 AUD Part Time Employment Change Apr -- -10.6K
01:30 AUD Participation Rate Apr 65.1% 65.1%
04:30 JPY Bankruptcies Y/Y Apr -- -14.5%
08:00 EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report -- --
08:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Mar -6.454B -6.179B
08:30 GBP Trade Balance Non EU (GBP) Mar -3.450B -3.329B
08:30 GBP Total Trade Balance (GBP) Mar -2.400B -2.061B
08:30 GBP DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y Mar -- 7.4%
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Apr 0.8% 0.7%
12:30 USD Import Price Index Y/Y Apr 11.3% 11.4%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 8) 440K 444K
12:30 USD Continuing Claims (MAY 1) 4590K 4594K
13:00 USD Fed's Donald Kohn Speaks in Ottawa Canada -- --
16:30 USD Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks in -- --

Philadelphia Pennsylvania
17:00 USD Fed's Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks in -- --

Altoona Wisconsin
17:15 USD Fed's Richard Fisher Speaks in Odessa Texas -- --
22:00 NZD REINZ Housing Price Index M/M Apr -- 1.7%
22:00 NZD REINZ House Sales Y/Y Apr -- -8.0%
22:00 NZD REINZ Housing Price Index Apr -- 3268.6
22:45 NZD Retail Sales M/M Mar 1.1% -0.6%
22:45 NZD Retail Sales Ex-Auto M/M Mar 1.5% -0.9%
22:45 NZD Retail Sales Ex Inflation Q/Q Q1 0.3% 1.0%

Georgia
Friday, May 14, 2010
03:00 NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings Apr -- 63.6%
08:00 EUR Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M Apr F 0.4% 0.4%
08:00 EUR Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) Y/Y Apr F 1.5% 1.5%
08:00 EUR Italian HICP M/M Apr F 0.9% 0.9%
08:00 EUR Italian HICP Y/Y Apr F 1.6% 1.6%
12:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments M/M Mar 1.0% 0.1%
12:30 CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M Mar -4.0% 8.1%
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Apr 0.3% 1.6%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Apr 0.5% 0.6%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos & Gas Apr 0.4% 0.7%
13:15 USD Industrial Production Apr 0.6% 0.1%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Apr 73.7% 73.2%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence May P 73.5 72.2
14:00 USD Business Inventories Mar 0.4% 0.5%
17:40 USD Fed's Charles Evans Speaks in Bloomington -- --

Illinois
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Daily Markets Update

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11 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

Daily Markets Update

EUR back to square

Position Strategy: Current position :

Position Strategy: Current position : Flat,

Current position : FLAT,

DOW JONES INDU. Future June 2010

Current position. Flat

TRACK Since April

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous

-- GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Apr -- 0.4%

05:45 CHF SECO Consumer Confidence Apr -1 -7

06:00 EUR German CPI M/M Apr F -0.1% -0.1%

06:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Apr F 1.0% 1.0%

06:00 EUR German HICP M/M Apr F -0.1% -0.1%

06:00 EUR German HICP Y/Y Apr F 1.0% 1.0%

06:00 EUR German WPI M/M Apr 0.9% 1.3%

06:00 EUR German WPI Y/Y Apr 5.2% 4.3%

08:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Mar 0.3% 1.0%

08:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Mar 0.6% -0.1%

08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Mar 0.4% 1.3%

08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Mar 1.5% 1.4%

09:30 AUD Treasurer Wayne Swan Delivers 2010-11 -- --

11:30 USD NFIB Small Business Optimism Apr -- 86.8

12:30 USD Fed's Jeffrey Lacker Speaks in Greensboro -- --

14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Mar 0.5% 0.6%

14:00 USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism May -- 48.4

17:15 USD Fed's Dennis Lockhart Speaks in Atlanta -- --

17:30 USD Fed's Charles Plosser Speaks in Atlanta -- --

20:30 USD API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 7) -- 2951K

20:30 USD API U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 7) -- 1459K

20:30 USD API U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 7) -- 1372K

21:00 USD ABC Consumer Confidence (MAY 9) -- -47

23:50 JPY Official Reserve Assets Apr -- $1042.7B

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous

01:30 AUD Home Loans Mar -3.0% -1.8%

01:30 AUD Investment Lending Mar -- -1.1%

01:30 AUD Value of Loans M/M Mar -- -4.4%

05:00 JPY Leading Index Mar P -- 98.5

05:00 JPY Coincident Index Mar P -- 100.5

06:00 EUR German GDP s.a. Q/Q Q1 P 0.0% 0.0%

06:00 EUR German GDP w.d.a. Y/Y Q1 P 1.2% -2.4%

06:00 EUR German GDP n.s.a. Y/Y Q1 P 1.2% -1.7%

06:45 EUR French GDP Q/Q Q1 P 0.3% 0.6%

06:45 EUR French GDP Y/Y Q1 P 1.4% -0.3%

06:45 EUR French CPI M/M Apr 0.3% 0.5%

06:45 EUR French CPI Y/Y Apr 1.7% 1.6%

06:45 EUR French HICP M/M Apr 0.3% 0.5%

06:45 EUR French HICP Y/Y Apr 1.9% 1.7%

06:45 EUR French CPI Ex Tobacco Index Apr 119.98 119.58

06:45 EUR French Current Account (EUR) Mar -- -3.6B

08:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change Apr -20.0K -32.9K

08:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Apr 4.8% 4.8%

08:30 GBP Average Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/Y 2.0% 1.7%

08:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Mar 8.0% 8.0%

09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP s.a. Q/Q Q1 A 0.2% 0.0%

09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP s.a. Y/Y Q1 A 0.5% -2.2%

09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production s.a. M/M 1.0% 0.9%

09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. Y/Y 6.4% 4.1%

09:30 GBP BoE Quarterly Inflation Report -- --