NON-SCIENCE OUTLINE SCAFFOLD DRAFT I:

Complete all of Draft I, then do all of Draft II,

adding information by following the directions in blue text.

My research question is:

How does normal distribution arise from approximating the distribution of the average outcomes of repeated
independent random experiments?
Introduction: Why did you choose to do this question? (1-2 sentences)
The teacher only introduces the function of the normal distribution curve, but did not explain and deduce the function.
Will also think about what is the distribution of probability of rolling a dice for 10000 times, is it really 1/6 for each
number?
Setting the Stage: In the context of the whole discipline (area of study) where is your question located? How is it
significant to your subject area? Who might be interested and why?
My question mainly talks about statistics and probability in the field of mathematics.
We are required to calculate the mean, the standard deviation and the value using a part of the normal distribution
function. However, the textbook did not mention why we should use that specific part of the function but not the whole
function. A good way is to deduce the function once and find out the reason.
The ones who want to know how the function is developed, mostly mathematicians, might be interested in my research
questions.
Analyzing the Sources: Which were your best sources?
1. A History of the Central Limit Theorem, by Hans Fischer
2. The Evolution of the Normal Distribution by Saul Stahl, Mathematics Magazine, April 2006
Why?
1. This is the reference that leads me to develop my own method of deducing the normal distribution function, providing
the proofs of binomial distribution, combination, and with calculus. This reference is a textbook partly providing a
historical transformation of the Central Limit Theorem.
2. This source provides me with a clear knowledge background about normal distribution. Moreover, the source itself is
also a research paper, which I can make reference about the format and overall presentation of the research question.
Which facts were repeated in all your sources?

1. All proves agree that the function of normal distribution is

1
e
2

( x )
2
2

2. All sources make use of Bernoulli variable and Central Limit Theorem to prove the function, meaning these two
methods are one of the major methods to include in my own method.
Which facts were contradicted in your sources?
N/A

The Arguments: What are the three main answers you found to your question?
Answer # 1:
Average outcome of Bernoulli trials, deduce the probability density function from making average of simple Bernoulli
trials.
Answer # 2:
Moment generating function for a wide class of probability distribution CLT which governs the average outcomes of a
wide class of independent random experiments.
Answer # 3:
Historical Normal distribution arises from theory of, reveal DeMoive Laplace Gauss on the theory random errors.
Conclusion: In one sentence, what is a concise answer to your question?
Appreciate beauty of mathematics by making approximation to some simple probability distribution model and achieve
some mathematical device that proofs to be prominent in daily but no so easy to derive.
Dnouement: What unanswered questions remain?
N/A

NON-SCIENCE Outline Scaffold Draft II

For Part II, add information that answers the questions in blue text. If you wish to write topic / subtopic bullet points
rather than in paragraphs, follow this format:

My research question is
How does normal distribution arise from approximating the distribution of the average outcomes of repeated
independent random experiments?
Introduction: Why did you choose to do this question?
Write one paragraph, or topic / subtopic bullet points. The last sentence should be your Research Question.
During Mathematics class, I was told that the normal distribution has a function of

1
e
2

( x )
2
2

and this often

appears in our daily lives for example tossing a coin and rolling a dice. However, the textbook has never derived the
function and formula once. Therefore, I will think whether I can derive the function through some simple cases such as
Bernoulli distribution. And while combining all the outcomes, for example HTHH What would the probability density
graph looks like? This leads to my research question for Mathematics extended essay is: How does normal distribution
arise from approximating the distribution of the average outcomes of repeated independent random experiments?
Setting the Stage: In the context of the whole discipline (area of study) where is your question located? How is it
significant to your subject area? Who might be interested and why?
Write two paragraphs or topic / subtopic bullet points for these paragraphs:
First paragraph sets up the time frame of the research question in subject area.
The following essay is going to use simple historical proofs such as Bernoulli distribution and binomial distribution to
generate and derive the normal distribution function.

Second paragraph describes the importance of the question as a subject for research in the subject area you are
researching
Dealing with probability is one of the most common Mathematics we would encounter in our daily lives. A simple way of
developing the function might help students in the future to understand more about this topic, and would like to solve the
unnatural exam purpose by just stating the function without reasons.

Analyzing the Sources: Which were your best sources? Why?

Write two paragraphs or topic / subtopic bullet points for these paragraphs that list the sources by name and author and
explain why you considered them such good sources.
Give details in quotes and paraphrases that you document with footnotes.
Try to use direct quotes ONLY for dramatic emphasis. Try to paraphrase as much as you canBUT do not forget
that the idea, though paraphrased, still has to be footnoted.
Explain why they are very good sources to answer your question.
Consider the following:
Validity of the researcher what are his/her credentials?
Origin of the source is it a primary or secondary source?
Uniqueness did this source contain some information that was only seen in this source?
The first source I take is A History of the Central Limit Theorem by Hans Fischer. Hans Fischer is a mathematician
teaching in a university located in Germany. This is the reference that leads me to develop my own method of deducing
the normal distribution function, providing the proofs of binomial distribution, combination, and with calculus. This
reference is a textbook partly providing a historical transformation of the Central Limit Theorem.
The second source that I have taken is The Evolution of the Normal Distribution by Saul Stahl, Mathematics Magazine,
April 2006. Saul Stahl is the Professor of Mathematics at the University of Kansas and a former systems programmer for
IBM. This source provides me with a clear knowledge background about normal distribution. Moreover, the source itself
is also a research paper, which I can make reference about the format and overall presentation of the research question.
Both sources are written by reliable mathematicians who are experts on the topic normal distribution, and their essays are
even published onto magazines, therefore these two sources are highly reliable.

Which facts were repeated in all your sources?

Write two paragraphs or topic / subtopic bullet points for these paragraphs in which you list the names and
authors of your sources that validated/affirmed the same ideas/facts repeatedly.
Again document all the information you learned for the first time.
Paraphrase rather than direct quotations.

All proves agree that the function of normal distribution is

1
e
2

( x )
2
2

, both mentioned by Saul Stahl and Hans

Fischer.
All sources make use of Bernoulli variable and Central Limit Theorem to prove the function, meaning these two methods
are one of the major methods to include in my own method.
Which facts were contradicted in your sources?
If it applies, and the source has both credibility and validity:
Write one paragraph in which you describe the one source that contradicts everything
Explain why you chose to consider it rather than ignore it. In what way does it paint a better picture of the whole
research
N/A

The Arguments: What are the three main answers you found to your question?
Answer # 1
Write three paragraphs or topic / subtopic bullet points for these paragraphs, that present the reason for this
answer.
Document the information that backs up your answers.
Remember the direct quote should only be used to add dramatic emphasis. Try to write in your own words, but
document the idea.
Para1 Design a convenient form of average outcomes of repeated independent trials of Bernoulli distribution as
number of trials becomes very large
Para2 Use a step function as the PDF of a continuous random variable to approximate the above distribution
Para3 Prove Sterling formula for the Gaussian integral and use this formula to establish the PDF of normal distribution
as a consequence of the number of trials going to infinity.
Answer # 2
Write three paragraphs or topic / subtopic bullet points for these paragraphs that present the reason for this
answer.
Document the information that backs up your answers. Remember the direct quote should only be used to add
dramatic emphasis. Try to write in your own words, but document the idea.
Para1 investigate properties of variance of sum of independent random variables and state the CLT which is much
stronger feature about the average outcomes of a wide class of independent random experiment
Para2 introduce the concept of moment generating function (MGF) of a random variable X which is the expectation of
exponential series Exp(tX)
Para3 Proof the CLT using MGF by investigating odd moments and even moments of the convenient mean of n
independent trials of X = X1+X2++Xn/n, and showing that they would coincide with corresponding moments of
normal distribution as n tends to infinitely.
Answer # 3

Write three paragraphs or topic / subtopic bullet points for these paragraphs that present the reason for this
answer.
Document the information that backs up your answers. Remember the direct quote should only be used to add
dramatic emphasis. Try to write in your own words, but document the idea.

Conclusion
In one sentence what is the answer to your question?
In five sentences or bullet points, summarize the validity of the answer to your research question
Appreciate beauty of mathematics by making approximation to some simple probability distribution model and achieve
some mathematical device that proofs to be prominent in daily but no so easy to derive.
Involve the use of new sets of mathematical tools mainly moment generating function which is to characterize of a
random variable by sequence of quality to random variable.
- Conclude the flow of the EE once more as this EE is more likely to be a historical review and consists of self
derivation steps instead of a question-to-answer essay
Dnouement: What unanswered questions remain?
Write three sentences or bullet points that you feel most adequately describes the why of the unanswered questions.
N/A