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Source: Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life / Mapping the Global Muslim Population, 2009
Source: Based on Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life / Mapping the Global Muslim Population, 2009
203
174
161
145
79
78
74
74
34
32
30
30
28
28
26
25
23
22
20
16
88.2%
96.3
13 4
13.4
89.6
94.6
50.4
99.4
98.0
98.0
99.0
97.0
70.0
99 0
99.0
32.8
88.0
99 6
99.6
99.0
2.0
86 0
86.0
14.0
Percentage of World
Muslim Population
12.9%
11.1
10 3
10.3
9.3
5.0
5.0
4.7
4.7
2.2
2
1.9
1.9
1.8
8
1.8
1.7
16
1.6
1.5
1.4
13
1.3
1.0
67.2
%
15.9
%
Source: Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life / Mapping the Global Muslim Population, 2009 &
Pop. Data - 2009 CIA World Factbook & http://islam.about.com/od/muslimcountries/a/population.htm
Population Dynamics in
Muslim countries
Kuwait
Yemen
40
4.0
Niger
3.5
Burkina-Faso
3.0
25
2.5
2.0
Sierra Leone
World
1.5
10
1.0
0.5
1965-1970
1985-1990
2005-2010
Source: Based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp
Source: Based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
Revival of
FP
1990
1988
1986
1978
1976
1974
1972
1984
1982
1980
I
Islami
c
Revolu
R
ution
1975
5
1976
6
1977
7
1978
8
1979
9
1980
0
1981
1
1982
2
1983
3
1984
4
1985
5
1986
6
1987
7
1988
8
1989
9
1990
0
1991
1
1992
2
1993
3
1994
4
1995
5
1996
6
1997
7
1998
8
1999
9
2000
0
2001
1
2002
2
2003
3
2004
4
2005
5
2006
6
10
Sistan and
Baluchestan
8
Ilam
6
IRAN
5
Semnan
Tehran
Gilan
H
Hormozgan
3
Mazandaran
350
300
250
200
150
1980
1986
1976
100
1990
50
1996
2000
2006
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
Age group
35-39
40-44
45-49
Driving
g forces behind the
low fertility in Iran
Rural development and Health Network
System
y
Competition: education and employment
Family
y formation: rise of age
g at marriage
g
and proportion not married by age
Small ideal family size
Quality vs quantity of children
Postponement of the 1st and 2nd birth
Stopping at parity 2 or 3
Effective family
y planning
p
g
Shortening of the reproductive life span
Winner of the
World Prize
for the Book
of the Year of
the Islamic
Republic of
Iran in 2011
Source: Based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp
Source: Based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp
Source: Based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp
50
Algeria
Iran
40
France
Tunisia
30
20
10
0
1750 1770 1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Source: Based on Donald Rowland, PRB 2010 and World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision
Iran
6
5
U.S
Tunisia
4
3
2
1
0
Pace of demographic,
demographic social changes and
reactions in Europe and Muslim countries
Countries
Demographic
transition
Social
change
Reaction
Developed
countries and
E
Europe
Slow
Slow
Gradual
adaptation
Developing
and Muslim
countries
F t
Fast
F t
Fast
Anxiety
and
conflict
Maldives
90
Kuwait
Qatar
Malaysia
Indonesia
Brunie
80
Turkey
Lybia
Iran
70
60
Egypt
50
Bangladesh
Morroco
40
Pakistan
30
20
10
0
1980s
1990s
Time
2000s
Primary
55-59
55
59
Secondary
45-49
Ter
35 39
35-39
25-29
15-19
2000
1500
1000
Ml
Males
500
500
P l ti in
Population
i Thousands
Th
d
1000
1500
F l
Females
Ref: Abbasi-Shavazi, Lutz, Hosseini, and KC, 2008; Lutz et all. 2010
2000
Primary
55-59
Secondary
45-49
Ter
35-39
25-29
15-19
6000
5000
4000
3000
Males
2000
1000
1000
Population in Thousands
2000
Females
3000
4000
5000
Primary
55-59
Secondary
45-49
Ter
35-39
25-29
15-19
15
19
5000
4000
3000
2000
Males
1000
1000
Population in Thousands
2000
3000
4000
Females
Ref: Abbasi-Shavazi, Lutz, Hosseini, and KC, 2008; Lutz et all. 2010
5000
Niger
Burkina Faso
Mali
Chad
Saudi Arabia
Oman
Senegal
Guinea
TFR, 199
95-00
Gambia
Iraq
Jordan
Algeria
Malaysia Egypt
Bangladesh
Morocco
Lybia
Kyrgizistan
Kuwait
Iran
Indonesia
Turkey
UAE
Tunisia
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
28
26
FSMAM
M, 2000
Tunisia
Morocco
Kuwait
Malaysia
Jordan
24
Algeria
UAE
Turkey
Egypt
Saudi Arabia
Indonesia
Kirgyzistan
Iran
Oman
Iraq
22
Syria
Senegal
20
Burkina Faso
Guinea
18
Ni
Niger
Gambia
Mali
Bangladesh
Chad
16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Niger
Burkina Faso
Mali
Sierra Leon
Ch d
Chad
Oman
Guinea
Senegal
TFR, 1995-00
Maldives
Mauritania
Gambia
Iraq
Pakistan
Tajikistan
Saudi Arabia
Sudan
Jordan
Syira
Algeria
Qatar
Uzbekistan
Bangladesh
Egypt
Lybia
Turkmenistan
UAE
Kirgyzistan
Malaysia
Morocco
Kuwait
Iran
Indonesia
Turkey
Lebanon
Bahrain
Brunei
Tunisia
2
Azerbaijan
1
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
FSMAM, 2000
Source: Data for fertility adopted from Abbasi-Shavazi and Jones (2005) and for marriage from UN (2000)
Infant mortality
y rate, 19
995-00
140
Guinea
120
Gambia
Mali
Niger
Chad
100
Burkina Faso
Iraq
Bangladesh
80
Senegal
60
Egypt
Morocco
Algeria
Indonesia
40
Kirgyzistan
Turkey
Syria
Tunisia
Iran
Oman
20
Jordan
Lybia
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
UAE
M l
Malaysia
i
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Somalia
Sierra Leon
Chad
TFR, 1995-00
Afganistan
Niger
Burkina Faso
Mali
Oman
Saudi Arabia
Senegal
Maldives
Mauritania
Pakistan
Jordan
Iraq
Djibouti
Guinea
Gambia
Comoros
Sudan
Syria
Algeria
Lybia
Uzbakistan
Kuwait
Bahrain
Iran
W. Sahara
Turkmenistan
Bangladesh
Morocco
Indonesia
Brunei Lebanon Tunisia
Albania
Turkey
2
Azerbaijan
1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
IMR 1995-00
IMR,
Source: data adopted from Abbasi-Shavazi and Jones (2005)
160
180
CPR (%
%), 2000
0
80
Iran
70
Turkey
60
Indonesia
g
Bangladesh
Malaysia
Algeria
Jordan
Morocco
50
Tunisia
Kigyzistan
Egypt
UAE
Lybia
Syria
40
Iraq
Guinea
Oman
30
Saudi Arabia
Gambia
20
Burkina Faso
Niger
10
Senegal
Mali
Chad
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Source: Data for education adopted from Abbasi-Shavazi and Jones(2005), for contraception from Hull (2005)
Somalia
Yemen
Niger
Afghanistan
Mali
Chad
Burkina Faso
Sierra Leon
Saudi Arabia
Oman
Guinea
Mauritania
Gambia
Pakistan
Iraq
Jordan
TF
FR
Sudan
Tajikistan
Lybia
Algeria
Syria
UAE
Turkmenistan
Uzbakistan
Egypt
Lebanon
Kirgyzistan
Indonesia
Iran
Tunisia
Turkey
T
k
Azerbaijan
1
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
CPR
Source: data for fertility adopted from Abbasi-shavazi and Jones(2005), for contraception from Hull (2005)
Demographic composition
Source: Based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp
Age
g Structure of Muslim countries
Muslim populations generally
characterized by a young age
structure.
Effect on labour migration
High dependency ratios because of earlier
high fertility
Task of providing universal basic education
High potential for further population
growth: population momentum.
A
Ageing
i
has
h
nott proceeded
d d very far
f
but
b t
will do so rapidly from 2030
Source: Based on World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision Population Database http://esa.un.org/unup
Conclusions
Muslims constitute 23% of the world
population and their share will increase
Considerable diversity: socioeconomic
development, Culture, and sect of
religion
li i
A general fertility decline in Islamic
countries, associated with improved
education and changes in womens
autonomy
TFR
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
South
Explanation of differential
Muslim and non-Muslim fertility
Characteristics hypothesis (structural
integration):
g
)
i.e Lebanese in Australia
Fertility
y Adaptation
p
of Lebanese in Australia 1977-1991
Source: