Fertility Transition in Islamic

Countries: Causes, Trends and

Consequences
Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi
University of Tehran &
Australian National University

Symposium on the Impact of Demographic Change in Thailand,

S l
Salon
A
A-B
B Room,
R
3rd
3 d Floor,
Fl
JW Marriott,
M
i tt Bangkok
B
k k
27-28 April, 2011

Size of Muslim Population in the World,2009

Source: Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life / Mapping the Global Muslim Population, 2009

Regional Distribution of Muslims, 2009

Muslim population in world 1.57 billion

Source: Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life / Mapping the Global Muslim Population, 2009

Concentration of Muslims by Region,2009

Source: Based on Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life / Mapping the Global Muslim Population, 2009

Countries with the Largest Number of Muslims, 2009

Country
Indonesia
Pakistan
India
Bangladesh
Egypt
Nigeria
Iran
Turkey
Algeria
Morocco
Iraq
Sudan
Afghanistan
Ethiopia
Uzbekistan
Saudi
Arabia
Yemen
China
Syria
Russia

Number of Muslims Percentage of Population

million
that is Muslim

203
174
161
145
79
78
74
74
34
32
30
30
28
28
26
25
23
22
20
16

88.2%
96.3
13 4
13.4
89.6
94.6
50.4
99.4
98.0
98.0
99.0
97.0
70.0
99 0
99.0
32.8
88.0
99 6
99.6
99.0
2.0
86 0
86.0
14.0

Percentage of World
Muslim Population

12.9%
11.1
10 3
10.3
9.3
5.0
5.0
4.7
4.7
2.2
2
1.9
1.9
1.8
8
1.8
1.7
16
1.6
1.5
1.4
13
1.3
1.0

67.2
%

15.9
%

Source: Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life / Mapping the Global Muslim Population, 2009 &
Pop. Data - 2009 CIA World Factbook & http://islam.about.com/od/muslimcountries/a/population.htm

Muslims are defined as a unique Ummah nation

Muslim Populations: Unity in Diversity

Muslims are defined as a unique

ummah nation,
nation
but are in some ways
y very
y
heterogeneous:
Shia and Sunni sects
Speak different languages,
they belong to around 300
groups,
o p , and thus,,
ethnic g
exhibit many cultures
Difference socio-economic
socio economic
status

Sunni and Shia Populations

p
Around 87-90% are Sunni Muslims
and 10-13% (154 to 200 million) are
Shia
Most Shias (
(between 68% & 80%)
)
live in just four countries: Iran,
Pakistan, India and Iraq.
q
More than
h
a third
hi d off the
h worlds
ld shia
hi
Muslims live in Iran

Population Dynamics in
Muslim countries

Rate of Natural Increase (%)in Muslim-majority

countries, 1965-70 until 2005-2010
4.5

Kuwait
Yemen

40
4.0

Niger

3.5

Burkina-Faso

3.0
25
2.5
2.0
Sierra Leone

World

1.5
10
1.0
0.5
1965-1970

1985-1990

2005-2010

Source: Based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp

Why Population growth is high

in Muslim-majority
Muslim majority countries?
Mortality has declined rapidly
Fertility has been high until recently,
believed to be due to Islams religious
teachings
The impact of population momentum has
also influenced population growth rate in
some countries
t i

TFR Trends in Muslim-majority countries, 1960-2010

Source: Based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp

Total Fertility Rates Iran, 19721972-2006

9
Total 1986 Census
U b 1986 Census
Urban
C

Rural 1986 Census

Total 1996 Census

Urban 1996 Census

Rural 1996 Census

Total 2006 Census

Urban 2006 Census

Rural 2006 Census

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

Revival of
FP
1990

1988

1986

1978

1976

1974

1972

1984

1982

1980

I
Islami
c
Revolu
R
ution

1975
5
1976
6
1977
7
1978
8
1979
9
1980
0
1981
1
1982
2
1983
3
1984
4
1985
5
1986
6
1987
7
1988
8
1989
9
1990
0
1991
1
1992
2
1993
3
1994
4
1995
5
1996
6
1997
7
1998
8
1999
9
2000
0
2001
1
2002
2
2003
3
2004
4
2005
5
2006
6

Total Fertility Rates Iran by province, 19721972-2006

10
Sistan and
Baluchestan

8
Ilam

6
IRAN

5
Semnan
Tehran

Gilan
H
Hormozgan

3
Mazandaran

Contraceptive Prevalence Rates, 19761976-2005

Provincial Total Fertility Rate, Iran 2006

Own--Children Estimates of ASFRs,, IRAN,,

Own
1976--2006
1976
Per 1000 w omen aged
P
d 15-49 yea rs

350
300
250
200
150

1980
1986
1976

100

1990

50

1996
2000
2006

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34
Age group

35-39

40-44

45-49

Driving
g forces behind the
low fertility in Iran
Rural development and Health Network
System
y
Competition: education and employment
Family
y formation: rise of age
g at marriage
g
and proportion not married by age
Small ideal family size
Quality vs quantity of children
Postponement of the 1st and 2nd birth
Stopping at parity 2 or 3
Effective family
y planning
p
g
Shortening of the reproductive life span

Winner of the
World Prize
for the Book
of the Year of
the Islamic
Republic of
Iran in 2011

TFR Trends in Major Islamic Countries, 1960-2010

Source: Based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp

Below-replacement fertility in Islamic Countries

Source: Based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp

Fertility decline in Iran and China:

Irans fertility: Sharpest Fall Ever Recorded

Source: Based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp

Fertility Transition (CBR) in France, Iran, Algeria and Tunisia

60

50

Algeria
Iran

40
France

Tunisia

30

20

10

0
1750 1770 1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Source: Based on Donald Rowland, PRB 2010 and World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision

Duration of achieving below-replacement fertility

(TFR=2.1)
(TFR
2.1) in in the U.S, Iran, and Tunisia
8
7

Iran

6
5

U.S

Tunisia

4
3
2
1
0

* For White population in U.S

Source: Based on http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/haines.demography
And UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp

Pace of demographic,
demographic social changes and
reactions in Europe and Muslim countries
Countries

Demographic
transition

Social
change

Reaction

Developed
countries and
E
Europe

Slow

Slow

Gradual
adaptation

Developing
and Muslim
countries

F t
Fast

F t
Fast

Anxiety
and
conflict

Education & Fertility

Education:
provides access to modern ways of
thinking, and lead to democracy
provides confidence to engage with
the modern world,
reduces infant and child mortality,
rises age at marriage, reduces the
probability of ever marrying,
stimulates higher levels of gender
equity within couple relationships

Literacy Rate of Female Adult (15+) in MuslimMajority Countries

100

Maldives

90

Kuwait
Qatar
Malaysia
Indonesia

Brunie

80

Turkey

Lybia
Iran

literacy rate (%)

70
60

Egypt

50

Bangladesh
Morroco

40

Pakistan

30
20
10
0
1980s

1990s
Time

Source: Data adopted from UNESCO (2010)

2000s

Iran - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 1970

Age
95-99
85-89
75-79
N Ed
No
Education
ti
65-69

Primary

55-59
55
59

Secondary

45-49

Ter

35 39
35-39
25-29
15-19
2000

1500

1000
Ml
Males

500

500

P l ti in
Population
i Thousands
Th
d

1000

1500

F l
Females

Ref: Abbasi-Shavazi, Lutz, Hosseini, and KC, 2008; Lutz et all. 2010

2000

Iran - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 2000

A
Age
95-99
85-89
75-79
75
79
No Education
65-69

Primary

55-59

Secondary

45-49

Ter

35-39
25-29
15-19
6000

5000

4000

3000
Males

2000

1000

1000

Population in Thousands

2000
Females

3000

4000

5000

Iran - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 2030

Age
95-99
85-89
75-79
No Education
65-69

Primary

55-59

Secondary

45-49

Ter

35-39
25-29
15-19
15
19
5000

4000

3000

2000

Males

1000

1000

Population in Thousands

2000

3000

4000

Females

Ref: Abbasi-Shavazi, Lutz, Hosseini, and KC, 2008; Lutz et all. 2010

5000

Negative impacts of Female Secondary Enrolment Rate

on total fertility rates in Muslim-majority
j
countries
7

Niger
Burkina Faso

Mali
Chad

Saudi Arabia

Oman

Senegal
Guinea

TFR, 199
95-00

Gambia

Iraq

Jordan

Algeria
Malaysia Egypt

Bangladesh

Morocco

Lybia

Kyrgizistan

Kuwait

Iran

Indonesia
Turkey

UAE

Tunisia

0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Female secondary enrolment (%), 1997

Source: Data adopted from Abbasi-Shavazi and Jones (2005)

80

90

100

Education and Age at Marriage

The Effect of Female Secondary Enrolment Rate on Female Singulate
Mean Age at Marriage among Muslim-Majority Countries
30
Lybia

28

26

FSMAM
M, 2000

Tunisia

Morocco
Kuwait
Malaysia

Jordan

24

Algeria

UAE

Turkey

Egypt
Saudi Arabia
Indonesia
Kirgyzistan
Iran
Oman

Iraq

22

Syria
Senegal

20
Burkina Faso
Guinea

18

Ni
Niger

Gambia

Mali
Bangladesh

Chad

16
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Female secondary enrolment rate (%),

(%) 1997
Source: Data for education adopted from Abbasi-Shavazi and Jones (2005) and for marriage from United
Nations (2000)

Age at Marriage and Fertility

The Effect of Female Singulate Mean Age at Marriage on TFR among

j
y Countries
Muslim-Majority
Afganistan

Niger
Burkina Faso

Mali

Sierra Leon

Ch d
Chad

Oman
Guinea

Senegal

TFR, 1995-00

Maldives

Mauritania

Gambia

Iraq
Pakistan

Tajikistan

Saudi Arabia

Sudan

Jordan

Syira
Algeria

Qatar
Uzbekistan

Bangladesh

Egypt

Lybia

Turkmenistan

UAE
Kirgyzistan

Malaysia
Morocco
Kuwait

Iran
Indonesia
Turkey

Lebanon

Bahrain
Brunei
Tunisia

2
Azerbaijan

1
16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

FSMAM, 2000
Source: Data for fertility adopted from Abbasi-Shavazi and Jones (2005) and for marriage from UN (2000)

Education and Child Mortality

The Effect of Female Secondary Enrolment Rate on Infant Mortality
Rate among Muslim-Majority Countries

Infant mortality
y rate, 19
995-00

140
Guinea

120

Gambia

Mali

Niger

Chad

100
Burkina Faso

Iraq

Bangladesh

80

Senegal

60

Egypt

Morocco
Algeria

Indonesia

40

Kirgyzistan

Turkey

Syria

Tunisia
Iran

Oman

20

Jordan

Lybia

Saudi Arabia
Kuwait

UAE
M l
Malaysia
i

0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Female secondary enrolment rate (%),

(%) 1997
Source: Data adopted from Abbasi-Shavazi and Jones (2005)

100

Child Mortality and Fertility among MuslimMajority Countries

8
Yemen
Gaza

Somalia

Sierra Leon

Chad

TFR, 1995-00

Afganistan

Niger
Burkina Faso
Mali
Oman
Saudi Arabia

Senegal
Maldives

Mauritania

Pakistan

Jordan

Iraq

Djibouti

Guinea
Gambia

Comoros
Sudan

Syria

Algeria

Lybia
Uzbakistan

Kuwait

Bahrain

Iran

W. Sahara
Turkmenistan
Bangladesh

Morocco

Indonesia
Brunei Lebanon Tunisia
Albania
Turkey

2
Azerbaijan

1
0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

IMR 1995-00
IMR,
Source: data adopted from Abbasi-Shavazi and Jones (2005)

160

180

Education and Contraception

The Effect of Female Secondary Enrolment Rate on Contraceptive
P
Prevalence
l
Rate
R t among Muslim-Majority
M li
M j it Countries
C
t i

CPR (%
%), 2000
0

80
Iran

70

Turkey

60

Indonesia
g
Bangladesh

Malaysia
Algeria

Jordan

Morocco

50

Tunisia
Kigyzistan

Egypt

UAE
Lybia

Syria

40
Iraq

Guinea

Oman

30

Saudi Arabia
Gambia

20
Burkina Faso
Niger

10

Senegal
Mali
Chad

0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Female secondary enrolment ratio (%), 1997

Source: Data for education adopted from Abbasi-Shavazi and Jones(2005), for contraception from Hull (2005)

Contraception and Fertility

The Effect Contraceptive Prevalence Rate on TFR among
M li
Muslim-Majority
M j i Countries
C
i
8
7

Somalia

Yemen

Niger

Afghanistan
Mali

Chad

Burkina Faso
Sierra Leon
Saudi Arabia
Oman
Guinea

Mauritania
Gambia

Pakistan

Iraq
Jordan

TF
FR

Sudan

Tajikistan
Lybia

Algeria
Syria
UAE
Turkmenistan
Uzbakistan
Egypt
Lebanon
Kirgyzistan

Indonesia

Iran

Tunisia
Turkey
T
k
Azerbaijan

1
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

CPR
Source: data for fertility adopted from Abbasi-shavazi and Jones(2005), for contraception from Hull (2005)

Demographic composition

Median Age in Muslim-majority countries, 2010

Source: Based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp

Age
g Structure of Muslim countries
Muslim populations generally
characterized by a young age
structure.
Effect on labour migration
High dependency ratios because of earlier
high fertility
Task of providing universal basic education
High potential for further population
growth: population momentum.

A
Ageing
i
has
h
nott proceeded
d d very far
f
but
b t
will do so rapidly from 2030

Rising Urbanization in Muslim Majority Countries, 1950-2010

Source: Based on World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision Population Database http://esa.un.org/unup

Conclusions
Muslims constitute 23% of the world
population and their share will increase
Considerable diversity: socioeconomic
development, Culture, and sect of
religion
li i
A general fertility decline in Islamic
countries, associated with improved
education and changes in womens
autonomy

Some Islamic countries have

experienced fast demographic and
social transitions
A young population structure with a
built-in potential for considerable
further population growth

Shah Mosque - Isfahan

Mean number of children ever born to Muslim and

non-Muslim
non
Muslim women in Europe by age, 1999
1999-2000
2000

Source: Westoff and Frejka, 2007

TFR in the South, Three Southernmost provinces, and

Muslims in Three Southernmost Provinces, Thailand,
2003
4.0

TFR

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0
South

3 Most southern provinces

Muslim in 3 most southern

provinces

Source: UNFPA-Thailand, 2011, Impact of Demographic Change in

Thailand, UNFPA, Bangkok.

Explanation of differential
Muslim and non-Muslim fertility
Characteristics hypothesis (structural
integration):
g
)
i.e Lebanese in Australia

The particularized theology

propositions
Minority status hypothesis
Interaction hypothesis

High Muslim fertility than Hindu but less impact on

the overall fertility in India

Source: Based on Mishra 2004

Fertility
y Adaptation
p
of Lebanese in Australia 1977-1991

Source: Abbasi-shavazi & McDonald 2000

Convergence of fertility of Afghan Women in Iran as compared with

those in Afghanistan, 1992-2006

Source:

Sadeghi and Abbasi-shavazi 2010