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11 May 2010

The TV5-SWS 2010 Exit Poll


I. THE VOTES
TV5-SWS 2010 EXIT POLL
PHILIPPINES (Partial sample as of May 11, 1:00 a.m., aired on TV5 as of 7a.m.)
(n=22,398)
Table 1. WHO DID YOU VOTE FOR AS PRESIDENT?
Partial Exit Poll %
AQUINO BENIGNO SIMEON III C. 'NOYNOY' 44
ESTRADA EJERCITO, JOSEPH M. 'ERAP' 25
VILLAR, MANUEL JR. B. 'MANNY' 13
TEODORO GILBERTO JR. C. 'GIBO' 11
VILLANUEVA EDUARDO C. 'BRO. EDDIE' 3
GORDON RICHARD J. 'DICK' 2
ACOSTA VETELLANO S. 'DODONG' 1
MADRIGAL JAMBY A. S. 'JAMBY' 0.2
DE LOS REYES JOHN CARLOS G. 'JC' 0.2
PERLAS JESUS NICANOR P. 'NICK' 0.1
CAN'T ANSWER/REFUSED 1

"Question. Sino po ang inyong ibinoto bilang PRESIDENTE, BISE-PRESIDENTE, at mga


SENADOR? (SHOW LIST)
Who did you vote for as PRESIDENT, VICE-PRESIDENT, and SENATORS? (SHOW LIST)"

Table 1.a VOTE FOR PRESIDENT, BY CLASS (%)


TOTAL RP ABC D E
AQUINO BENIGNO SIMEON III C. 'NOYNOY' 44 48 44 36
ESTRADA EJERCITO, JOSEPH M. 'ERAP' 25 19 27 32
VILLAR, MANUEL JR. B. 'MANNY' 13 11 14 16
TEODORO GILBERTO JR. C. 'GIBO' 11 14 8 9
VILLANUEVA EDUARDO C. 'BRO. EDDIE' 3 4 3 3
GORDON RICHARD J. 'DICK' 2 2 1 2
ACOSTA VETELLANO S. 'DODONG' 1 1 1 1
MADRIGAL JAMBY A. S. 'JAMBY' 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
DE LOS REYES JOHN CARLOS G. 'JC' 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1
PERLAS JESUS NICANOR P. 'NICK' 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
CAN'T ANSWER/REFUSED 1 1 1 1
Table 1.b VOTE FOR PRESIDENT, BY EDUCATION (%)
NONE/ ELEM HS GRAD/ SOME CAN'T
TOTAL COLLEGE
SOME GRAD/ VOC/VOC/ SOME ANSWER/
RP GRAD/ POST
ELEM SOME HS COLLEGE REFUSED
AQUINO BENIGNO
SIMEON III C. 44 36 41 45 50 43
'NOYNOY'
ESTRADA
EJERCITO, 25 34 29 25 13 22
JOSEPH M. 'ERAP'
VILLAR, MANUEL
13 16 15 13 11 12
JR. B. 'MANNY'
TEODORO
GILBERTO JR. C. 11 8 9 9 16 10
'GIBO'
VILLANUEVA
EDUARDO C. 'BRO. 3 3 3 4 4 3
EDDIE'
GORDON RICHARD
2 0.4 2 2 4 0.4
J. 'DICK'
ACOSTA
VETELLANO S. 1 2 0.4 1 0.4 1
'DODONG'
MADRIGAL JAMBY
0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4
A. S. 'JAMBY'
DE LOS REYES
JOHN CARLOS G. 0.2 0 0.2 0.2 0.1 1
'JC'
PERLAS JESUS
0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3
NICANOR P. 'NICK'
CAN'T ANSWER/
1 1 1 1 1 8
REFUSED

Table 1.c VOTE FOR PRESIDENT, BY RELIGION (%)


OTHER
OTHER
TOTAL IGLESIA NI NON-
CATHOLIC ISLAM CHRIS- REFUSED
RP CRISTO CHRIS-
TIANS
TIANS
AQUINO BENIGNO
SIMEON III C. 44 44 79 46 28 26 43
'NOYNOY'
ESTRADA EJERCITO,
25 26 9 15 25 28 22
JOSEPH M. 'ERAP'
VILLAR, MANUEL JR.
13 14 4 27 13 18 10
B. 'MANNY'
TEODORO GILBERTO
11 11 3 6 12 13 10
JR. C. 'GIBO'
VILLANUEVA
EDUARDO C. 'BRO. 3 1 0.5 4 18 13 5
EDDIE'
GORDON RICHARD J.
2 2 3 1 2 1 1
'DICK'
ACOSTA VETELLANO
1 1 0.4 1 0.4 0.4 1
S. 'DODONG'
MADRIGAL JAMBY A.
0.2 0.2 1 0.1 0.1 0 0.5
S. 'JAMBY'
DE LOS REYES JOHN
0.2 0.2 0.2 0 0.1 0 1
CARLOS G. 'JC'
PERLAS JESUS
0.1 0.1 0 0 0.1 0 0.2
NICANOR P. 'NICK'
CAN'T ANSWER/
1 1 1 0.4 1 0 7
REFUSED

Table 2. WHO DID YOU VOTE FOR AS VICE-PRESIDENT?


Partial Exit Poll %
BINAY JEJOMAR C. 'JOJO' 40
ROXAS MANUEL A. 'MAR' 40
LEGARDA LOREN B. 'LOREN' 10
FERNANDO BAYANI F. 'BF' 3
MANZANO EDUARDO B. 'EDU' 2
YASAY PERFECTO R. 'KIDLAT' 2
CHIPECO DOMINADOR JR. F. 'JUN' 0.4
SONZA JOSE Y. 'JAY SONZA' 0.2
CAN'T ANSWER/REFUSED 3

"Question. Sino po ang inyong ibinoto bilang PRESIDENTE, BISE-PRESIDENTE, at mga


SENADOR? (SHOW LIST)
Who did you vote for as PRESIDENT, VICE-PRESIDENT, and SENATORS? (SHOW LIST)"

Table 2.a CHOICE FOR VICE-PRESIDENT, BY CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT (Column %)


TOTAL RP AQUINO ESTRADA VILLAR TEODORO OTHERS
ROXAS 40 67 12 24 28 15
BINAY 40 25 73 37 40 27
LEGARDA 10 4 9 30 9 7
OTHERS 10 4 6 8 22 51
100 100 100 100 100 100

Table 2.b VOTE FOR VICE-PRESIDENT, BY CLASS (%)


TOTAL RP ABC D E
BINAY JEJOMAR C. 'JOJO' 40 40 41 41
ROXAS MANUEL A. 'MAR' 40 43 40 33
LEGARDA LOREN B. 'LOREN' 10 7 10 14
FERNANDO BAYANI F. 'BF' 3 4 2 3
MANZANO EDUARDO B. 'EDU' 2 1 2 2
YASAY PERFECTO R. 'KIDLAT' 2 2 1 1
CHIPECO DOMINADOR JR. F. 'JUN' 0.4 0.2 0.4 1
SONZA JOSE Y. 'JAY SONZA' 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
CAN'T ANSWER/REFUSED 3 1 2 5

Table 2.c VOTE FOR VICE-PRESIDENT, BY EDUCATION (%)


HS GRAD/
NONE/ ELEM SOME COLLEGE CAN'T
TOTAL
SOME GRAD/ VOC/VOC/ GRAD/ ANSWER/
RP
ELEM SOME HS SOME POST REFUSED
COLLEGE
BINAY JEJOMAR C.
40 39 39 43 38 35
'JOJO'
ROXAS MANUEL A.
40 32 38 40 46 36
'MAR'
LEGARDA LOREN B.
10 14 12 9 7 9
'LOREN'
FERNANDO BAYANI
3 2 4 3 5 3
F. 'BF'
MANZANO EDUARDO
2 3 2 1 1 2
B. 'EDU'
YASAY PERFECTO R.
2 2 1 2 2 1
'KIDLAT'
CHIPECO
DOMINADOR JR. F. 0.4 1 0.3 0.3 0.3 1
'JUN'
SONZA JOSE Y. 'JAY
0.2 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.1 1
SONZA'
CAN'T
3 7 3 2 1 13
ANSWER/REFUSED

Table 2.d VOTE FOR VICE-PRESIDENT, BY RELIGION (%)


OTHER
OTHER
TOTAL IGLESIA NI NON-
CATHOLIC ISLAM CHRIS- REFUSED
RP CRISTO CHRIS-
TIANS
TIANS
BINAY JEJOMAR C.
40 42 13 45 42 44 35
'JOJO'
ROXAS MANUEL A.
40 40 75 17 30 27 36
'MAR'
LEGARDA LOREN B. 10 9 4 28 9 14 9
'LOREN'
FERNANDO BAYANI F.
3 3 3 2 4 4 3
'BF'
MANZANO EDUARDO
2 2 1 2 1 1 2
B. 'EDU'
YASAY PERFECTO R.
2 0.4 1 3 9 6 2
'KIDLAT'
CHIPECO DOMINADOR
0.4 0.4 1 2 0.2 0 1
JR. F. 'JUN'
SONZA JOSE Y. 'JAY
0.2 0.2 0.1 0.02 0.1 0 0.4
SONZA'
CAN'T
3 2 2 3 4 3 12
ANSWER/REFUSED

II. THE VOTERS


TV5-SWS 2010 EXIT POLL
PHILIPPINES (Partial sample as of May 10, 9:30 p.m.; aired on TV5 as of May 10, 11p.m.)
(n=12,078)
Table 3. IS PLATFORM OR PERSONALITY THE MAIN REASON FOR YOUR CHOICE OF
CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT?
Partial Exit Poll %
PLATFORM 44
PERSONALITY 47
CAN'T ANSWER/REFUSED 10

"Question. PLATAPORMA po ba o PAGKATAO ang inyong pangunahing dahilan sa pagpili ng


kandidato sa pagka-Presidente?
Is PLATFORM or PERSONALITY the main reason for your choice of candidate for President?"

Table 4. WHEN DID YOU DECIDE ON YOUR VOTE FOR PRESIDENT?


Partial Exit Poll %
ONLY NOW 13
MAY 1-9 14
IN APRIL 9
IN MARCH 7
IN FEBRUARY OR EARLIER 51
CAN'T ANSWER/REFUSED 6

"Question. Kailan po kayo nakapagdesisyon sa inyong boto sa pagka-Presidente?


When did you decide on your vote for president?"

Table 5. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS ELECTIONS, WAS VOTING EASIER OR HARDER FOR YOU
NOW?
Partial Exit Poll %
EASIER NOW 58
SAME AS BEFORE 8
MORE DIFFICULT NOW 26
FIRST TIME TO VOTE 3
CAN'T ANSWER/REFUSED 5

Question. Kumpara sa mga nakaraang halalan, ang pagboto po ba ninyo ay MAS MADALI o MAS
MAHIRAP ngayon?
Compared to previous elections, was voting easier or harder for you now?

Table 6. UNDER THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION, DO YOU THINK THE QUALITY OF


GOVERNANCE...?
Partial Exit Poll %
WILL GET BETTER 61
WILL BE THE SAME AS NOW 15
WILL GET WORSE 2
CAN'T ANSWER/REFUSED 22

Question. Sa ilalim ng susunod na administrasyon, masasabi ba ninyo na ang mangyayari sa


kalidad ng pamamahala ay …?
Under the next administration, do you think the quality of governance …?

Table 7. IN THE COMING 12 MONTHS WOULD YOU SAY THAT YOUR QUALITY OF LIFE...?
Partial Exit Poll %
WILL BE BETTER 52
SAME 24
WILL BE WORSE 1
CAN'T ANSWER/REFUSED 23

Question. Sa darating na 12 buwan, masasabi ba ninyo na ang uri ba ng inyong pamumuhay ay ...
(READ OUT)?
In the coming 12 months would you say that your quality of life... (READ OUT)?

Table 8. OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS, WOULD YOU SAY THAT THE ECONOMY OF THE
PHILIPPINES WILL...?
Partial Exit Poll %
WILL BE BETTER 55
SAME 20
WILL BE WORSE 2
CAN'T ANSWER/REFUSED 23

Question. Sa darating na 12 buwan, masasabi ba ninyo na ang ekonomiya ng Pilipinas ay …


(READ OUT)?
Over the next 12 months, would you say that the economy of the Philippines will... (READ OUT)?

Background
Social Weather Stations, in cooperation with the School of Government of Ateneo de Manila University,
conducted a national exit poll sponsored by the PLDT-SMART Foundation, Inc., for exclusive broadcast
by the Associated Broadcasting Company (TV5), called the "TV5-SWS EXIT POLL."
The TV5-SWS Exit Poll adheres to the requirements set by the Fair Election Act's Section 5.5 on exit
polls. This requires interviewers to (a) stay at least 50 meters away from polling centers, (b) wear
distinctive TV5-SWS Exit Poll clothing and carry TV5-SWS Exit Poll identification cards; and (c) inform
respondents that they may refuse to answer. The Act says that the results "may be announced after the
closing of the polls on election day, and must clearly announce the total number of respondents, and the
places where they were taken" and that the "announcement shall state that the same is unofficial and
does not represent a trend."
SWS previously conducted exit polls in the national elections of 1995, 1998, 2001 and 2004. Those
previous polls were all conducted on election-day, in the homes of a random sample of respondents who
had already voted earlier in the day. Conducting an exit poll in homes rather than at polling locations is
valid under the Guidelines for Exit Polls and Election Forecasts of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research (WAPOR), written by the WAPOR Exit Poll Committee of which I was a member, and
approved by the WAPOR Council in 2006.
This year, however, the TV5-SWS Exit Poll is conducted not in homes but at the polling centers, 50
meters away. This enables the interviews to be done, as in the developed countries, throughout the day.
The interview results are transmitted to the SWS office in Quezon City, and processed to produce the exit
poll results for broadcast on TV5 as soon as completed, and lawfully allowed.
SWS conducted the TV5-SWS Exit Poll with its own regular staff and a special complement of direct hires
for added interviewing and data processing capacity. Starting in mid-2004, SWS has accomplished all
field and data processing operations internally, without outsourcing.
The questionnaire for the TV5-SWS Exit Poll was designed in cooperation with the Ateneo School of
Government (ASoG). In addition to asking about the votes for President, Vice-President and Senator, it
has several question items, in addition to standard demographics (gender, age, education,
socioeconomic class, religion, charismatic group, and home language) to enable substantive analysis of
the 2010 vote. The TV5-SWS Exit Poll analysis will be done by SWS in cooperation with ASoG.
SWS is entirely responsible for the sampling of the TV5-SWS Exit Poll. The poll was conducted in 802
Voting Centers (VCs) nationwide, covering all provinces from Batanes to Tawi-Tawi, and chartered cities
of the Philippines. The regional distribution of the TV5-SWS Exit Poll sample of VCs, after proportional
allocation according to the official 2010 number of Registered Voters (RVs) in the said provinces and
cities, is as follows:
NCR - 96
CAR - 15
Region I - 45
Region II - 31
Region III - 88
Region IV- A - 107
Region IV-B - 23
Region V - 44
Region VI - 62
Region VII - 62
Region VIII - 38
Region IX - 29
Region X - 38
Region XI - 40
Region XII - 32
ARMM - 30
CARAGA - 22
Within each province/city, the sample-VCs are chosen with probability proportional to their number of
RVs. In each VC, SWS fielded normally two interviewers (sometimes one, if the VC is small); the total
field group, including support staff, is over 1,800 persons. SWS has 110 encoding stations at its main
office to accommodate the incoming interview reports.
The interviewers of the TV5-SWS Exit Poll have been trained to behave in a strictly non-partisan manner
at all times. They are to approach voters to be interviewed at a steady pace throughout voting hours.
They may not accept voters who volunteer to be interviewed. For the sake of privacy, interviewees'
names are not recorded; interviewees are given a thank-you card with the name of their interviewer. The
TV5-SWS Exit Poll aims for an average of 40 interviews per VC, or a national sample of about 32,000
interviews. The national sampling error, though still to be ascertained, is expected to be below 1%.
The results of each VC are weighted by its present number of RVs, multiplied by the actual voting turnout
percentage in the last presidential election year (2004), to progressively obtain provincial/city results,
regional results, and national results. However, the voting results for national positions may be reported at
the national level only, at which the sample is maximized; it is not necessary for an exit poll to reach
conclusions about sub-jurisdictions.
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