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ANALYZING CHANGE

MODELING THE POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE

PREDICTING CHANGE

IMPACT ASSESSMENT FOR HABITAT AND BIODIVERSITY

REDD MODELING CAPABILITIES

PLANNING FOR FUTURE SCENARIOS

Land Change Modeler

FOR ARCGIS

Clark Labs worked with Conservation International over a period of several years to develop this flexible software that can
be used for a variety of land change scenarios and contexts.

Analyzing Change
Land change analysis is critical in areas such as environmental and resource management, land use planning, biodiversity conservation
and REDD (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation). Clark Labs has produced a set of tools organized in a
stepwise fashion to facilitate such analysis. The first step in the process is to analyze historical change between two land cover maps
of different time periods. The user specifies two land cover maps of different dates and Land Change Modeler (LCM) rapidly assesses
the changes between the two. The user can immediately review and evaluate area gains and losses, net change, persistence and specific
transitions both in map and graphical form. A change abstraction tool is also included, based on trend surface analysis, to uncover the
underlying trends of complex change.

Modeling the Potential


for Change
After reviewing the historical changes
between the two maps, the user must
identify the driver variables that may
be contributing to the transitions
being analyzed. These variables, in
map format, can be tested to confirm
whether or not they hold explanatory
power for the transition and then
selected and incorporated into the
model. Such driver variables may
include maps of distance to roads or
accessibility to forest, for example.
The Change Analysis panel provides a set of tools for understanding the nature and extent of land cover change, including graphs of gains and
losses, net changes and contributions experienced by any category. A simple one-click interface provides the ability to generate rapid maps of
change, persistence, and specific transitions and exchanges between categories.

Generalization of changes through the Spatial Trend of Change tool. This tool allows the generalization of patterns of change with red colors
representing areas of higher change density. The bar graph on the left shows the contribution to net change experienced by Mixed Forest, showing
that the majority of the transitions are to large and small residential areas

Using past land transition information


with environmental, physical and
socio-economic variable maps that
might drive or explain such change,
the Land Change Modeler can create a
GIS data layer expression of transition
potentialthe likelihood that a land
use will transition in the future. These
transitions may be modeled with
Logistic Regression, a Multi-Layer
Perceptron neural network, or the
Similarity Weighted Instance-based
Learning algorithm, resulting in a
potential map for each transitionan
expression of time-specific potential
for change.
The explanatory variables can be static,
expressing aspects of basic suitability
for the transition under consideration,
or dynamic, time-dependent
drivers, such as proximity to existing
development or infrastructure.
Dynamic variables are recalculated at
each iteration during the course of a
prediction.

The use of land involves a variety of stakeholders. It is therefore extremely important that the land cover change analysis
and prediction process account for as many components and variables as possible if it is to be an effective tool.

Predicting Change
The change prediction process relies on these historical
transitions and models forward to a specified future date. The
quantity of change can either be modeled through a Markov
Chain analysis or by providing a transition probability matrix
from an external (e.g., econometric) model.
For the dynamic variables, Land Change Modeler allows for the
specification of the number of reassessment stages during which
they are updated. At each stage, the system also checks for the
presence of planning interventions, important parameters that
may alter the course of development in the change prediction
process. Interventions include constraints and incentives, such
as proposed reserved areas, and infrastructural changes, such
as roads or developments. Interventions are specified in the
Planning tab.
For the actual prediction output, a hard prediction based on a
multi-objective land competition model with a single realization
is created. The option of creating a soft prediction output, a
continuous map of vulnerability to change for the selected set
of transitions, is also provided. The soft prediction model is
generally preferred for habitat and biodiversity assessment since
it provides a comprehensive assessment of change potential.

Date 1: 1990

Date 2: 2008

Prediction Map
2018
Above figures show the hard prediction process, utilizing two dates
of change to create a prediction map.

To test your model, tools are also provided


to validate or determine the quality of the
predicted land use map in relation to a
map of reality. The validation tool however
does require another map (time period 3
that matches the date of the prediction),
a map of reality. This is an important
modeling process as it allows the user to
compare the maps, assess the robustness
of their model and refine if necessary. For
example, the user may wish to incorporate
another explanatory variable.
The Land Change Modeler interface shows the transition variables and the method used to model deforestation (SimWeight). The bar
graph shows the output variable weights, with distance to disturbance having the largest values. The image shows the output soft
prediction (also called deforestation vulnerability).

Land cover change represents one of the major threats to biodiversity worldwide. Habitat destruction is the dominant threat. One
must therefore integrate land cover change maps with species distribution data to inform conservation strategies.

Impact Assessment for Habitat and Biodiversity


A wide range of tools is provided for assessing the implications of land use change for ecological sustainability. These include tools for
species-specific habitat assessment, habitat change analysis, gap analysis, landscape pattern analysis, species distribution modeling, and
biodiversity analysis. Integrating species data, you may utilize LCM in the following ways.
Species-specific habitat assessment.
Based on existing or predicted land
cover maps and a map of species-specific
habitat suitability, the habitat assessment
tool develops a map with primary and
secondary habitats and primary and
secondary potential corridors. Important
parameters that control this process
include the home range size, buffers
based on sensitivity to humans, and the
ability to cross gaps within home ranges
and during dispersal.
Habitat change. Detection of changes
in habitat status and gap analysis by
comparison to a map of protection status.
Land cover pattern and change process
analysis. Tools are available to assess
patterns in the landscape (e.g., edge
density or relative richness) or to
characterize the nature of change
underway between two land cover maps.

The image shows the results of the habitat assessment for the Bobcat (Lynx rufus) in central Massachusetts for the year 1999. The
LCM interface on the left shows the habitat assessment parameters and the bar graph of habitat change, showing that between 1985
and 1999, there has been a large decline in primary habitat for this species.

Species range polygon refinement. This


exploratory tool allows for the refinement
of species distribution maps through the
analysis of environmental variables.
Species distribution modeling. Tools are
available for developing species-specific
habitat suitability and distribution maps
through presence-absence, presenceonly algorithms, or through a theoretical
model. Includes an interface with
MaxEnt.
Biodiversity assessment. Using
collections of species range polygons
(such as those provided by NatureServe),
this tool permits the development of
maps of alpha diversity (local species
richness), gamma diversity (regional
richness), beta diversity (Whittakers and
Sorensens) and relative range restriction.

The range polygon refinement tool uses Weighted Mahalanobis Typicalities to refine the boundaries of range polygons. The image is
the calculated habitat suitability (typicalities) for the Vicugna with the overlay of the original range. Note that the boundaries become
more refined following natural limits, extending the range of the polygon to the areas north of Chile and Argentina (where the data
was originally collected).

REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) is an incentive mechanism for climate change
mitigation by which countries are compensated for protecting forests which act as carbon sinks.

Impact Assessment for REDD


Initiatives to implement REDD at the national or regional level require the development of a scenario of greenhouse gas emissions
that would occur in the reference region if a project were not to happen. The calculations for the reference region must include the
proposed project area as well as the surrounding leakage area, adjacent land where displaced deforestation may likely occur as a result
of the REDD project. This estimate of emissions helps determine whether the potential carbon offset project will provide additionality,
carbon offset that would not have occurred if a business as usual scenario were maintained. When a project is implemented, the
actual emissions are compared to the calculated emissions in the reference scenario to calculate the creditable emissions reductions.
Included in LCM is a facility for modeling
the impact of land cover change, specifically
deforestation, on carbon emissions. The
calculation of emissions is a requirement for
the implementation of a REDD project.
An important component of REDD analysis is
the assessment of historical land cover change
rates and patterns, in particular deforestation,
along with the driving forces of change.
LCMs land change prediction modeling
is cost-effective and automated, providing
the necessary steps for the development of
calculations for a projects potential for carbon
sequestration.
The REDD facility is intended to
support the various methodologies
being reviewed and approved by
the Verified Carbon Standard
(VCS) for the voluntary market.

Schematic showing the concept of additionality. LCM calculates with project on baseline in order to assess project additionality.

Estimates baseline emissions.


Calculates deferred emissions
and carbon credits.
Creates formatted table in an
Excel spreadsheet.

The REDD tool within LCM allows for the calculation of carbon additionality needed to develop a REDD project. The images show the land cover in
the Mantadia region in Madagascar for the year 1990, the change that occurred between 1990 and 2000 and the projected deforestation vulnerability (soft prediction) for the year 2030. This information, together with the specification of carbon pools and carbon content within pools, allows
for the calculation of all tables needed for REDD.

Land Change Modeler for ArcGIS delivers results based on a synthesis of historical land change information with the
analysts knowledge of the variables that drive such change.

Planning Interventions
The Land Change Modeler allows the user to specify and
incorporate planning intervention maps that may alter the
course of development. Planning interventions may be static
or dynamic. Interventions include constraints and incentives,
such as proposed reserved areas, infrastructure modifications, such as the development of roads and policy initiatives,
along with the year such changes will become effective.

The corridor tool allows for the generation of least-cost corridors between habitat patches, taking into
account not only the habitat suitability for the species but also the potential for human development in
the region, and the overall conservation value, allowing the generation of balanced corridor solutions for
conservation.

The Planning section of LCM also includes a tool to define


species corridors based on habitat suitability as well as the
specification of the areas to be connected. It includes an
interface with Marxan, a spatial conservation planning software widely used and available freely from the University of
Queensland.

System Requirements
The Land Change Modeler software is intended for
professional-level planning use on platforms employing
the Microsoft Windows operating system and the ESRI
ArcGIS software. Any Windows system that supports
ArcGIS 10.2 SP2 or later can run Land Change Modeler.
500 MB of hard disk space is required.

The two Marxan panels within Land Change Modeler are meant to interface with the Marxan software
which provides decision support for reserve system design. Marxan can be used to identify areas that
meet biodiversity targets, taking into account minimum costs

Contact Us
Clark Labs, Clark University
950 Main Street Worcester, MA
01610-1477 USA
TEL +1.508.793.7526
FAX +1.508.793.8842

CLARK LABS

EMAIL clarklabs@clarku.edu
WEB www.clarklabs.org

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