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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Summary and Price Outlook
2. Investment
64
7. Fabrication Demand
60
52
5. Official Sector
32
15
3. Mine Supply
71
8. Appendices
98
FOCUS BOXES
9
18
19
24
44
59
63
69
78
82
FORTHCOMING RELEASES
GFMS COPPER SURVEY 2015 14th April 2015
GFMS GOLD SURVEY 2015: Q1 UPDATE AND OUTLOOK 28th April 2015
WORLD SILVER SURVEY 2015 6th May 2015
GFMS PLATINUM & PALLADIUM SURVEY 2015 14th May 2015
GFMS GOLD SURVEY 2015: Q2 UPDATE AND OUTLOOK
July 2015
GFMS COPPER SURVEY 2015 - UPDATE
October 2015
GFMS GOLD SURVEY 2015: Q3 UPDATE AND OUTLOOK
October 2015
GFMS GOLD SURVEY 2015: Q4 UPDATE AND OUTLOOK
January 2016
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The estimates shown in the GFMS Gold Survey for the main components of mine production, scrap, fabrication and
investment demand are calculated on the basis of a detailed supply/demand analysis for each of the markets listed
in the main tables. In the vast majority of cases, the information used in these analyses has been derived from visits
to the countries concerned and discussions with local traders, producers, refiners, fabricators and central bankers.
Although we also make use of public domain data where this is relevant, it is the information provided by our contacts
which ultimately makes this GFMS Gold Survey unique. We are grateful to all of them.
NOTES
UNITS USED
troy ounce (oz) =
31.1035 grammes
tonne =
carat =
Unless otherwise stated, US dollar prices and their equivalents are for the PM fix of the London Bullion Market.
Unless otherwise stated, all statistics on gold supply and demand are expressed in terms of fine gold content.
Throughout the tables, totals may not add due to independent rounding.
TERMINOLOGY
-
0.0
dollar, $
Identifiable Investment
The sum of physical bar investment and all coin fabrication, plus the net change
Jewellery Consumption
Fine gold content of all new jewellery (i.e. does not include exchanged or second-
hand pieces) sold at the retail level. It is calculated as being equal to jewellery
fabrication, plus imports less exports (i.e. the net inflow of jewellery). An
The difference between the supply of new and secondary gold to the market in
a calendar year and measurable demand for physical gold. This excludes opaque
Over the Counter (OTC) investment in gold and commercial bank transactions.
Net Balance
The physical surplus or deficit of gold with the addition of highly visible ETF and
Retail Investment
Identifiable net investment in physical gold in bar and coin form. The bars may
or may not conform to London Good Delivery status but will be in a form that is
commonly traded in the country of origin. Coins include all official and unofficial
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Supply
Mine production
Scrap
2,561
2,496
2,499
2,429
2,612
2,742
2,846
2,875
3,061
3,133
903
1,133
1,006
1,352
1,728
1,713
1,675
1,677
1,287
1,125
3,372
3,195
3,072
3,424
4,106
4,349
18 -40 -39
4,539
4,513
4,310
103
4,362
Demand
Jewellery
2,722
2,302
2,426
2,308
1,819
2,033
2,034
2,008
Industrial Fabrication
449
480
294
325
62
92
2,439
2,213
487
471
422
476
468
331
318
283
333
330
426
419
400
295
289
61
58
56
53
48
279
43
39
36
94
98
97
86
34
95
95
92
93
87
77
457
544
409
466
Retail Investment
416
428
436
916
830
1,221
1,556
1,343
1,775
1,079
261
236
236
659
548
934
1,230
1,039
1,394
829
155
192
200
257
283
287
326
304
380
251
2,923
2,845
2,864
3,460
3,038
3,807
4,515
4,321
5,041
4,158
Physical Surplus/Deficit
448
350
208
-36
1,068
542
25
192
-732
204
208
260
253
321
623
382
185
Physical Demand
34
39
212
58
-35
-391
406
603.77
695.39
871.96
Net Balance
29
32 -10
54 -6 -10 -98
106
-154
-78
246
1
363
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Jewellery
Central Bank
Holdings
SUPPLY IN 2014
Mine production increased for a sixth successive
SUMMARY AND PRICE OUTLOOK
6000
2000
2000
Scrap
1000
3000
2000
500
1500
1500
1000
1000
500
500
1000
0
0
2005
2007
10
2009
2011
2013
0
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
4000
1500
Tonnes
2000
Scrap
Mine Production
Tonnes
5000
DEMAND IN 2014
Total physical demand fell by 18% last year, to a
four-year low of 4,158 tonnes, as all areas, with
the exception of official sector purchases, recorded
yearon-year declines.
Despite lower gold prices in US dollar terms, jewellery
demand dropped by 9% in 2014, largely on the back
of a sharp decline in Chinese offtake.
Industrial fabrication continued to slide last year,
falling by 4% to 400 tonnes, the lowest level since
2003, due to weakness in all major sectors.
Total Identifiable Investment, which includes physical
bar investment, all coins and ETF inventory build,
increased by 3%, primarily due to a slower pace of
ETF selling last year. Meanwhile, retail purchases of
gold bars and coins slumped by nearly 40%, largely
due to a lack of interest from key Asian markets.
Net official sector buying rose by 14% to 466tonnes,
which was the second highest annual total since
1964.
3000
Retail Investment*
2000
800
1000
2000
Identifiable Investment*
1600
2000
1200
1500
1000
800
1200
3000
1600
Jewellery
4000
Jewellery Fabrication
2500
Industrial Fabrication
Tonnes
5000
Tonnes
6000
500
400
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
400
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
11
1200
Real Gold Price
1000
1500
2000
1250
800
200
1200
0
-200
800
-400
India
750
500
250
-600
-800
2005
2007
12
China
1000
Tonnes
400
1600
600
Tonnes
2009
2011
2013
400
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
*Demand consists of jewellery fabrication, industrial fabrication
and retail investment
95
90
85
80
(22/02/14): President
Yanukovych leaves Ukraine
Mar
Feb
Gold
DXY
105
Jan 14
100
75
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
13
Aug
14
10
11
12
Sep
Oct
17
18
15
16
23
21
22
23
Feb
26
Mar 15
27
24
25
25
24
Jan 15
Dec
19
21
22
19
Nov
18
20
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
13
2000
400
350
Index, 2nd January 2007= 100
1500
US$/oz
1000
500
Rupee
Euro
Dollar
300
Yen
250
200
150
100
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
14
50
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
2. INVESTMENT
Total Identifiable Investment, which includes physical bar
OVERVIEW
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Retail Investment
1,221
1,556
1,343
1,775
1,079
of which bars
of which coins**
382
185
279
-880
-160
1,603
1,741
1,622
895
919
63
88
87
41
37
15
INVESTMENT
IDENTIFIABLE INVESTMENT
US DOLLAR INDEX
Coins*
2000
2000
Bars
120
500
0
1000
-500
110
Index
1500
1000
100
90
80
70
-1000
500
2005
2007
2009
2011
16
130
1500
Tonnes
INVESTMENT
2013
60
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14
Source: Thomson Reuters
Ratio
4
3
2
1
0
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14
Source: Thomson Reuters
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
17
INVESTMENT
1.0
0.8
INVESTMENT IN COMMODITIES
were the double digit percentage declines in iron ore and crude
oil, both of which saw their asset prices halved over the course
of the year.
risk. The dollar index gained 12% over 2014 on the back of
end of January 2015, the lowest level since 2009. This decline,
currencies.
That said, many hedge funds that were set up to ride the
and the agriculture sector were the main drivers behind the
that the oil price decline may have been partially driven by
unfavourable fundamentals.
120
100
Livestock
Agriculture
Energy
80
US$
S bn
200
US$ bn
INVESTMENT
100
60
Copper
Precious Metals
40
20
0
0
2011
Source: CTFC
18
2012
2013
2014
2015
-20
Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15
Source: CTFC
70
80
90
100 110
50
60
70
80
90
100 110
S&P 500
Palladium
Dollar Index
60
Rhodium
50
Nickel
MSCI International World Price Index (USD)
Zinc
Aluminium
Wheat
Gold
fundamentals.
Corn
Euro
Platinum
Tin
Soybean
Silver
INVESTMENT
Copper
US 10 Year Benchmark
S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index
WTI
Brent
Iron Ore
growth elsewhere.
first half, the correlation was low when high oil prices were a
proxy for the USs economy strength due to its shale industry,
but the relationship increased when both fell in the second half.
The correlation between gold and the S&P 500 went into the
from funds. Silver lost over 25% in the second half, being
dragged down along with other base metals, while gold lost
over 10% in the same period.
2013
2013
2014
2014
2014
2014
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0.45
0.28
0.14
0.17
0.38
Quarterly
Silver
The dollar index rose over 12% in 2014, but gold only lost 1.8%,
Oil (WTI)
0.23
0.07
-0.17
0.20
0.31
0.34
S&P 500
0.10
0.03
-0.25
-0.17
-0.18
-0.11
Annual
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0.16
0.10
0.50
0.34
0.33
Silver
Oil (WTI)
0.17
0.34
0.27
0.36
0.28
0.24
S&P 500
0.03
0.21
-0.03
0.26
0.17
-0.16
19
INVESTMENT
% share
of total change
798.2
709.0
-89.2
56%
162.4
161.2
-1.2
1%
176.1
137.6
-38.6
24%
ETF Securities
108.3
124.1
15.8
-10%
GBS LSE
97.3
84.3
-13.0
8%
52.7
52.7
0.0
0%
Julius Baer
66.0
51.0
-14.9
9%
Xetra Gold
44.5
48.5
4.0
-3%
38.5
44.1
5.6
-3%
48.5
39.5
-9.0
6%
41.3
34.5
-6.7
4%
Others
Total
1,651.6
-159.6
8%
100%
*Other includes DB Euro Hedged, GBS ASX, Royal Canadian Mint, DB Physical Gold ETC (EUR), ETFS - Swiss Gold, iShares ETC, Mitsubishi Tokyo, DB Physical Gold ETC, ETFS Precious
Metals Basket Trust, Goldist, ETFS Asian Gold Trust, ETFS NYSE, DB Physical Gold CHF Hedged, Claymore Gold Bullion ETF, Dubai DGX, DB Physical Gold GBP Hedged ETC, DB Physical
Gold SGD Hedged ETC, Central Gold Trust, HuaAn Gold ETF, Guotai Gold ETF, FinEx Physically Held Gold ETF, ETFS Hong Kong, E Fund Gold ETF, Bo Gold ETF, Credit Suisse Xmtch, Indian
ETFs; Source: Respective issuers
20
Tonnes
US$bn
Tonnes
US$bn
Tonnes
US$bn
Tonnes
US$bn
12.Q1
2,465
131.77
12.Q2
2,465
126.70
12.Q3
2,603
148.63
12.Q4
2,691
143.41
13.Q1
2,515
129.21
13.Q2
2,112
80.95
13.Q3
1,992
84.96
13.Q4
1,811
70.14
14.Q1
1,809
75.11
14.Q2
1,770
74.83
14.Q3
1,737
67.94
14.Q4
1,652 64.04
ETF Securities
Other
2000
iShares Gold
2500
ZKB
GBS (LSE listed)
1200
US$/oz
Tonnes
2000
1600
1500
800
1000
400
500
0
Jan-07
0
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters, collated from respective ETF issuers data
21
INVESTMENT
April with equity markets at all time highs, weakerthan-expected physical demand from Asia and the
US Fed announcing a 2014 year-end to its stimulus
programme, ETF outflows gained momentum. In
the second half of the year, liquidation continued
to pick up pace as the gold price declined by $109
from the end of June to December. This was driven
by a variety of factors, including a surging US dollar
and a plummeting oil price, while the weakening yen
following the announcement from the Bank of Japan
on further easing of monetary policy was another
drag. Expectations that the US would actually start to
tighten monetary policy following the end of the Fed
QE programme in October, encouraged redemptions
in the final quarter of 2014 of 85 tonnes, to end the
year at 1,652 tonnes.
2009
Futures contracts
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
equivalent in tonnes
647
522
330
308
55
271
22.6
23.6
17.0
16.4
2.1
10.5
Options contracts
equivalent in tonnes
-33
18
21
51
35
-1.1
0.3
0.9
1.1
2.0
1.4
400
200
375
350
Mar
May
Jul
Sept
Nov
Jan-15
Mar
400
200
1400
150
1300
100
1200
50
1100
0
Jan-14 Mar
Source: CFTC
1000
May
Jul
Sept
Nov
Jan-15 Mar
425
450
600
22
475
open Interest
0
Jan-14
800
Daily Volume (contracts, thousands)
INVESTMENT
COMEX
Change
y-o-y
136,522
147,093
126,024
-14%
5,917
20,088
23,858
19%
11,895
12,225
8,745
-28%
2,113
3,347
4,724
41%
10,324
8,945
3,972
-56%
SGE Spot
950
2,003
2,560
28%
ICE Futures US
1,177
1,116
508
-54%
DGCX
497
426
426
-0.1%
Borsa Istanbul
312
438
239
-45%
na
na
78
na
SHFE
TOCOM
SGE Au(T+D)
MCX
CHINESE EXCHANGES
800
20
2
1
10
0
-1
-2
Jul
Jan-13
Jul
Jan-14
Jul
Jan-15
700
300
Open Interest
250
600
500
200
400
150
300
200
100
4
Daily Price Premia (%)
5
Price Premia
Source: SGE
30
0
Jan-12
100
0
Jan-12
50
Jul
Jan-13
Jul
Jan-14
Jul
Jan-15
Source: SHFE
23
INVESTMENT
TOCOM
200
INVESTMENT
150
100
50
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
24
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
OTHER EXCHANGES
A number of relatively new commodity exchanges around
the world, launched in previous years in response to
market liberalisation and growing investor interest in
commodities, have expanded their activity, overtaking
some traditional exchanges.
LBM
Number of
Transfers
LBM
Transfers**
Tonnes
Comex
Turnover
Tonnes
LBM/
Comex
Ratio
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
800
600
300
400
200
200
100
400
Daily Average Value of Transfers
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
2010
2012
2014
Source: LBMA
25
INVESTMENT
OTC MARKET
Following the frenzy of 2013, overall activity in the
INVESTMENT
26
EUROPE
After reaching a peak of 337 tonnes in 2011, European
demand for gold bars declined, to hit 210tonnes in 2014.
It is worth stressing that, despite the 15% drop, last years
figure was nevertheless high by historical standards.
NORTH AMERICA
Physical bar demand in North America fell to 28tonnes
in 2014, down 27% from the previous year. In 2013, bar
demand rose by 23% on the back of lower prices, which
garnered interest among small retail-level investors.
These investors seem to have purchased the bulk of their
targets in 2013, as it likely brought forward demand
that might have occurred in 2014. As the US economy
gathered momentum, investor interest in non-yielding
assets was reduced. The S&P 500, a proxy for the US
equity markets, reached fresh record highs throughout
the year, diverting investment dollars away from safe
RETAIL INVESTMENT
600
Other
North America
500
Europe
China
Tonnes
400
India
300
200
100
0
Q1-10
Q1-11
Q1-12
Q1-13
Q1-14
INDIAN SUB-CONTINENT
Indian investment demand fell by 59% to 110tonnes last
year, the lowest since 2005. Indias share of the global
total fell to 13%, a level not observed in the last decade.
This is sharply lower than the annual average of 35% of
the global market share calculated for the period 2004
to 2012. A drop of this magnitude was due to a supply
shortfall of metal through official channels, lower price
expectations from professional investors, a crackdown on
corruption, and a liquidity crunch during first half of 2014
due to the general election.
Gold available through official channels has been a key
source of income for a large part of the trade to maintain
regular cash flow and show higher turnover on the books
of most of the jewellery retailers and bullion traders.
This can be inferred by extensive physical trading activity
noted in silver, which saw imports rise to a new record
for the second consecutive year. As a result, the tactical
investment part was missing by and large, with gold
coming in through unofficial channels and going into
jewellery. High and volatile premia were yet another
factor keeping away short term physical trading activity.
With metal availability restricted to a few hands the
change in premia over a week could occasionally exceed
the London spot price. Also in the physical market, the
customs duty is basis the fortnightly tariff rates set by
customs and thus will differ from the ad valorem rates,
another risk that the trade was not willing to take.
Professional investors were sellers in the market leading
to a high level of dishoarding; however this was quickly
absorbed by jewellery market to partly make up for the
supply shortfall. Selling was also high from political
circles ahead of the general election in the first half.
Wealth managers were focussed on enticing investors to
equity markets over gold, and the appetite for portfolio
diversification into gold was generally down. Event
based buying was the only source which helped drive
demand. For instance both during Akshaya Tritya in April
and Dhanteras in October generated strong purchases,
although in smaller sized bars. One-hundred gramme
investment bars were of less interest to the public as
people bought 10 and 20 grammes, largely to keep
up with tradition. That said, lower prices in November
saw the return of investment flows, but it still was not a
convincing price point for investors at large and secondhalf investment was down by 36% from the first half.
27
INVESTMENT
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Europe
Germany
9.3
22.3
30.3
109.1
128.7
121.7
154.5
104.1
112.5
97.0
Switzerland
9.2
10.5
12.5
88.9
97.1
92.4
115.9
80.4
65.1
44.6
Belgium
-1.2
-4.3
-2.0
-0.1
12.2
18.7
23.8
19.2
21.0
21.8
1.5
3.2
4.4
4.0
0.9
4.9
14.0
8.5
11.6
10.0
Turkey
Other Countries
Total Europe
-30.6 -32.9 -40.3 5.6 -7.3 -10.2 28.4 35.3 37.5 36.5
-11.9
-1.2
4.8
207.4
231.5
227.5
336.5
247.4
247.6
209.8
North America
United States
Canada
Mexico
12.4
4.9
-2.5
51.4
63.5
62.0
47.5
25.9
33.4
24.8
1.4 4.0 1.4 5.2 7.4 3.4 5.1 2.6 5.0 3.0
0.7 0.8 1.8 5.3 3.3 2.8 2.9 2.8 0.1 0.1
14.5
9.7
0.8
61.9
74.3
68.3
55.5
31.3
38.4
27.9
South America
Venezuela
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.0
Other Countries
-4.3 -3.6 -2.0 -0.6 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.2 0.3
-4.3
-3.6
-2.0
-0.6
2.6
2.3
2.5
2.5
3.8
2.3
Asia
INVESTMENT
China
India
9.0
10.1
21.0
60.8
102.3
178.6
237.8
249.3
362.1
171.1
102.8
139.8
148.6
159.9
117.5
266.3
288.0
205.9
265.8
109.8
Thailand
28.0
15.9
4.6
42.6
-10.1
63.0
103.6
101.9
157.9
84.4
Vietnam
34.0
69.5
56.1
96.2
58.2
67.0
87.8
67.4
84.8
56.4
Iran
11.9
12.0
20.2
30.6
15.8
33.8
40.4
44.2
50.4
43.4
Indonesia
3.0
-1.0
0.3
2.9
-6.0
15.3
24.8
7.3
8.0
9.0
13.5
10.9
14.5
Saudi Arabia
22.1
43.1
18.1
17.4
16.3
17.8
14.6
Pakistan
3.4
2.1
2.6
-4.4
-19.4
7.0
14.6
12.3
23.9
13.4
UAE
8.3
6.6
5.9
8.0
4.4
6.1
9.1
7.9
9.5
8.5
1.6
1.3
1.4
0.6
3.0
2.7
7.0
7.9
South Korea
Other Countries
Total Asia
-0.3
-8.0
52.2 -34.4 -39.2 -23.1 -31.4 -27.3 -7.5 12.1 49.2 34.8
261.5
229.8
230.5
386.8
234.2
625.0
818.9
742.0
1,071.5
562.4
0.7
Egypt
0.9 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.8 15.2 9.9
World Total
0.8
1.0
2.9
4.4
10.2
15.5
14.8
17.6
16.2
1.6
1.4
1.7
3.3
5.1
11.3
16.2
15.6
32.8
26.1
261.4
236.1
235.8
658.8
547.7
934.4
1,229.5
1,038.9
1,394.1
828.5
of which:-
Middle East*
36.0 34.8 45.0 61.4 34.9 65.8 93.1 73.3 115.9 97.9
East Asia*
119.1 54.7
CIS*
3.3 3.6 4.2 4.4 4.9 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8
98.5 273.6 304.4 220.8 293.0 126.0
EAST ASIA
Bar investment in China dropped to 171 tonnes in 2014,
decreasing by a whopping 53% year-on-year to the
lowest level since 2010. The significant retreat was
heavily impacted by the anti-corruption activities in
Chinese government introduced since April 2013. Indeed,
gifting had been a substantial part of physical bar
demand and had been part of the fabric of corruption
in Chinese history as gold bars have high value, high
liquidity, and gold is deeply rooted in Chinese culture.
Yet as the policy rolled out, the gifting sector was
28
1500
70
Value of Bar Investment
60
50
Tonnes
40
30
500
20
10
0
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
1000
MIDDLE EAST
After surging by over 38% in 2013 to a record high, bar
hoarding in the Middle East declined 15% last year to
an estimated 98 tonnes. Following a strong start to
the year, when a rising gold price encouraged some
speculative activity, the lack of volatility and a general
lowering of price expectations saw investment demand
falter thereafter. Consumers, it would appear, have, in
many cases, lost faith that gold can deliver the yields that
other asset classes (chiefly the equities markets) have
done in the last twelve months. Sizeable declines were
registered across almost the entire region, led by Iran
and Saudi Arabia (as the largest investment markets in
this Bloc) which retreated by 14% and 18% respectively.
It was a similar pattern across the region, with double
digit falls seen in the UAE and most of the GCC. The only
exception in 2014 was Kuwait, where demand increased
28% year-on-year, from a low base, as high wealth
investors took advantage of any dips in the price to build
gold assets.
OFFICIAL COINS
Global official coin minting declined by 37% year-onyear in 2014, as the market recovers from frenzied
physical buying that had largely characterised
demand in the previous year.
29
INVESTMENT
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
52.0 56.7 56.7 53.1 30.9 35.6 58.9 39.9 90.6 40.5
Canada
10.2 8.3 9.0 27.6 38.2 34.1 35.8 23.9 35.5 22.1
United States
14.0 27.5 19.0 31.8 50.9 44.5 36.5 27.5 34.1 21.8
South Africa
1.5
2.4
6.8
8.7
23.2
20.0
23.8
23.7
27.5
21.5
China
9.4 9.4 7.2 5.5 6.7 8.5 23.9 21.4 21.8 15.4
Austria
7.2 4.4 5.3 24.9 33.4 17.9 21.1 12.4 20.3 13.6
Australia
4.4 5.3 5.6 9.6 11.0 8.4 10.6 10.0 16.2 11.6
Iran
4.2 4.0 4.5 5.3 7.6 9.4 9.6 9.2 10.3 7.5
United Kingdom
3.3 3.5 3.4 4.3 4.7 4.4 5.8 6.8 4.9 4.7
Russian Federation 0.9 1.6 4.3 5.7 6.5 5.4 4.6 6.4 5.7 4.5
Germany
5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.0 5.0 4.7 5.0 4.2 4.2
Switzerland
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.9 1.9
Other Countries
5.0 3.6 3.8 5.4 5.5 5.1 3.0 4.1 3.7 3.9
World Total
117.7
132.3
131.3
187.4
223.8
198.5
238.7
190.4
276.6
173.2
120
2000
Gold Price
30
100
80
1500
US$/oz
Tonnes
INVESTMENT
60
40
1000
20
0
Q1-09
500
Q1-10
Q1-11
Q1-12
Q1-13
Q1-14
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
32.8 55.8 64.7 63.5 53.5 82.6 80.0 106.3 96.3 70.8
4.2
3.6
3.7
6.2
5.4
5.7
7.8
7.1
7.5
6.6
37.0
59.4
68.4
69.7
58.9
88.3
87.8
113.4
103.8
77.4
31
INVESTMENT
3. MINE SUPPLY
Rank
2014
Production (t)
1 1 China
2013
2014
438.2 461.8
2 2 Australia
268.1 272.9
3 3 Russia
248.8 262.2
229.5
United States
5 5 Peru
6
2013
South Africa
205.0
187.7 172.6
177.0
163.8
7 7 Canada
133.3 153.8
8 8 Mexico
119.8 118.2
9 9 Indonesia
109.6 116.4
10 10 Ghana
107.4 108.2
11 11 Brazil
80.1 80.7
12 12 Uzbekistan
77.4 80.4
13 14 Argentina
50.1 59.8
14 13 PNG
60.5 58.2
15 18 Kazakhstan
42.6 49.2
16 16 Mali
48.2
17 17 Tanzania
46.6 45.8
18 15 Chile
48.6 44.2
47.4
19 19 Colombia
41.2
43.1
20 20 Philippines
40.5
42.6
Rest of World
World Total
506.4
546.9
3,061.5
3,133.1
MINE PRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION
Last year reflected a period of strategy consolidation
for many producers, after the year of turmoil in 2013
which in many cases necessitated lifting reserve cut-off
grades, consequent heavy and widespread impairments,
and headcount reductions both at mine sites and head
offices, all in response to the fall in metal prices.
Australia
Russia
South America
Other
Other Africa
South Africa
North America
China
Other Asia
3000
2500
Tonnes
MINE SUPPLY
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2005
2007
2009
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
32
2011
2013
-15 t
-10 t
-5 t
-0.5 t
+0.5 t
+5 t
+10 t
+15 t
Gold Price
Processed Ore Grade
2000
1.8
1500
1.6
1000
1.4
500
1.2
2005
2009
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
2013
2.0
33
MINE SUPPLY
MINE SUPPLY
34
AFRICA
African gold output was up nine tonnes or 1% year-on
year, bringing the total to 588 tonnes. The regions
output was characterised by strong gains in the western
and central parts of the continent being offset by lower
production in the south of the continent.
Output in South Africa followed the long-running
downward trend in production with year-on year output
down 7% or 13 tonnes to a total of 164 tonnes. This
was despite limited industrial action during the period,
following on from the two-year wage agreement struck
in 2013 by a number of the major producers. Suffering
the heaviest year-on-year fall in output was South
Deep, heavily impacted in the first half by a four month
suspension of underground production while a ground
support programme was implemented. Although higher
SOUTH AFRICAN MINE PRODUCTION
350
300
250
Tonnes
200
150
100
50
0
2005
2007
2009
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
2011
2013
grade ore was processed in the second half, this was not
enough to offset the shortfall in processed tonnes, which
resulted in a three tonne drop in production. Higher
processed grades were not enough to offset lower mill
throughput at both Mponeng and Doornkop where
combined output fell by three tonnes. In August, South
Africas strongest earthquake for 45 years was recorded
near Orkney and caused infrastructure damage to nearby
mining operations including Moab Khotsong, Kopanang
and Great Noligwa. Although no significant damage was
reported to the underground and surface infrastructure
at Tau Lekoa, the operations suffered a four day loss of
production following the earthquake. Kopanang was also
affected by a fall-of-ground fatality and a subsequent
temporary production halt contributing to a tonne of lost
production.
Increases in production in South Africa were led by
Kusasalethu where higher ore grades more than offset
lower throughput volumes leading to a one tonne
increase in output. The Kloof operations recorded a one
tonne increase as mill throughput continued to increase.
Despite the operational setbacks at Moab Khotsong, the
operation recorded a one tonne increase in output thanks
to an improvement in head grades.
Tanzania
Other
Mali
Congo (DRC)
Ghana
Burkina Faso
350
Tonnes
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2005
2007
2009
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
2011
2013
35
MINE SUPPLY
Russia
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
175.4 172.8 169.3 188.7 205.2 203.4 215.6 229.7 248.8 262.2
Turkey
5.1
8.1
10.1
11.4
14.5
16.6
24.1
29.6
33.5
32.3
Finland
1.2
1.1
1.5
1.7
3.8
5.6
6.4
8.9
8.4
7.3
Sweden
6.1 6.7 5.0 4.9 5.5 6.3 5.9 6.0 6.4 6.4
Bulgaria
2.3 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.3 2.5 3.4 4.3 4.6 5.4
Spain
1.4 2.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.1 2.0
Others
4.0 3.8 4.0 4.1 3.7 3.1 2.4 2.4 3.7 3.1
Total Europe
North America
United States
195.5
197.6
193.4
213.6
235.9
237.5
258.3
282.3
307.5
262.3
251.8
238.0
233.6
221.4
229.7
233.3
232.3
229.5
318.7
205.0
Canada
119.5 103.5 102.2 95.0 96.0 103.5 107.8 108.0 133.3 153.8
Mexico
30.6
South America
39.0
43.7
50.8
62.4
79.4
88.6
102.8
119.8
412.5
394.3
383.9
379.4
379.9
412.5
429.7
443.1
482.6
118.2
477.0
Peru
217.8 213.5 183.6 195.5 201.4 184.8 189.6 184.4 187.7 172.6
Brazil
44.5 49.2 58.1 58.7 64.7 67.5 67.3 67.3 80.1 80.7
Argentina
27.8 43.4 42.5 40.3 48.8 63.5 59.1 54.6 50.1 59.8
Chile
39.6 40.4 41.5 39.2 40.8 38.4 44.5 48.6 48.6 44.2
Colombia
24.8 26.0 26.0 26.0 27.0 33.5 37.5 39.1 41.2 43.1
MINE SUPPLY
Dominican Republic 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 4.1 26.5 35.6
Venezuela
21.1 26.5 24.3 24.3 24.8 24.9 25.5 21.8 22.9 23.2
Suriname
18.2
Ecuador
11.9 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 17.2 17.6 17.6 17.4 17.8
Guyana
10.1 8.4 9.7 10.5 11.9 12.8 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4
Nicaragua
3.9 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.6 4.9 6.3 6.9 8.7 8.8
Guatemala
0.7
Bolivia
8.0 9.6 8.8 8.4 7.2 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.1 6.3
Honduras
4.4 3.9 3.1 1.9 2.6 2.4 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.8
16.9
5.2
16.1
7.7
17.9
8.0
20.8
9.0
22.9
9.4
24.6
12.1
26.5
6.6
27.0
6.5
26.6
6.3
Panama
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.9 1.8 2.1 2.3 1.3 1.9
Other
6.8 8.0 8.1 6.4 6.0 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.0 5.7
Asia
China
Indonesia
439.6
468.1
446.9
454.2
483.0
496.6
515.2
508.4
546.6
549.8
229.8 247.2 280.5 292.0 324.0 350.9 371.0 413.1 438.2 461.8
167.0
114.1
149.5
95.9
160.5
140.1
121.1
93.0
109.6
116.4
Uzbekistan
75.5
74.1
72.9
72.2
70.5
71.0
71.4
73.3
77.4
80.4
Kazakhstan
19.2
21.8
22.6
22.0
22.5
29.9
36.7
40.0
42.6
49.2
Philippines
33.3
36.1
38.8
35.6
37.0
40.8
37.1
41.0
40.5
42.6
Kyrgyzstan
16.6
10.6
10.5
18.4
17.0
18.5
19.7
11.3
20.2
19.2
Mongolia
18.4
18.9
18.4
16.5
14.1
13.9
12.4
12.8
17.8
30.5
Laos
6.7 6.5 4.5 4.7 5.4 5.5 4.4 6.7 7.2 5.6
Japan
8.3 8.9 8.9 6.9 7.7 8.5 8.7 6.7 6.4 6.7
North Korea
6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3
Thailand
5.2 4.3 3.3 2.5 5.4 4.2 3.2 5.2 5.3 5.3
Malaysia
5.7 4.9 4.3 3.8 4.2 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.1 4.5
Saudi Arabia
7.5 5.2 4.5 4.0 5.1 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.5 5.2
Vietnam
2.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.1 2.6
Tajikistan
2.4 2.3 2.3 1.7 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.4
Armenia
1.6 1.1 0.4 0.5 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.1 3.5 4.7
India
3.0 2.5 2.9 2.6 2.1 2.8 2.3 1.7 1.6 1.6
Georgia
1.6
Other
Total Asia
36
1.5
1.2
1.1
0.8
3.6
3.2
3.5
2.0
2.5
4.8 4.3 4.3 4.3 5.0 6.7 6.4 6.2 6.2 7.5
615.3
573.2
638.9
593.7
693.5
719.5
721.4
739.2
801.0
855.8
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Africa
177.3
177.0
163.8
Ghana
South Africa
315.1
62.8
295.7
69.9
269.9
77.3
233.8
80.4
219.8
90.3
202.9
92.4
202.0
91.0
95.7
107.4
108.2
Mali
46.7
56.9
51.9
47.0
49.1
43.9
43.5
50.3
48.2
47.4
Tanzania
40.1
35.6
45.8
49.3
44.8
40.9
44.6
49.6
49.1
46.6
Burkina Faso
1.7
2.1
2.9
6.9
13.8
25.3
34.1
31.3
35.0
38.5
5.3
5.6
6.5
7.2
10.0
17.0
22.0
26.1
25.3
40.0
5.6
3.6
10.1
22.5
27.9
20.1
20.5
Sudan
3.1
2.7
4.0
Zimbabwe
19.5 17.2 13.5 8.9 9.8 16.3 19.0 19.5 19.6 19.9
Guinea
14.3
Ivory Coast
16.6
18.0
23.9
22.5
20.4
19.7
18.4
19.0
21.0
3.0 3.0 3.0 5.3 8.6 7.3 13.4 14.0 13.6 18.0
Ethiopia
3.8 4.0 3.9 3.8 5.5 6.6 11.5 12.0 12.0 12.0
Egypt
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7 6.3 8.2 11.1 11.7
Mauritania
0.5
Senegal
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.2 4.5 4.3 6.8 6.5 6.7
Zambia
0.5 1.0 1.3 1.9 3.1 3.4 3.5 4.2 5.2 4.8
Eritrea
Other
Total Africa
0.6
1.9
6.8
8.4
9.1
8.7
8.2
10.0
10.1
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 12.8 10.2 3.4 1.3
20.6 18.3 19.8 21.4 18.6 20.7 20.3 20.4 19.4 18.3
549.5
539.9
513.6
486.2
509.9
529.8
584.1
579.7
579.4
587.9
262.2
246.8
247.4
215.2
223.5
260.8
258.6
251.7
268.1
272.9
PNG
70.9 61.7 61.7 70.3 70.6 69.7 63.5 57.2 60.5 58.2
New Zealand
10.6 10.6 10.6 13.4 13.4 13.7 11.6 10.2 12.4 11.3
Solomon Islands
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.7 2.0 2.0 0.8
Fiji
2.9 1.5 0.1 1.1 1.1 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.4 0.6
Other
World Total
2.5 2.7 1.8 1.7 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
349.1
323.4
321.8
301.8
309.7
346.4
337.1
322.8
344.3
343.8
2561.5
2496.4
2498.5
2428.9
2611.8
2742.4
2845.9
2875.4
3061.5
3133.1
NORTH AMERICA
Total mine production in North America contracted by
six tonnes in 2014, breaking the trend of five years of
consecutive growth. This left total production in North
America at 476 tonnes. The drop was largely driven by
the United States, where production fell by 24 tonnes, or
11% year-on-year, to 205 tonnes. A significant portion
of the fall was attributed to the two largest operations
in the country, Barricks Cortez and Newmonts Nevada
complexes, which declined by a combined 21 tonnes.
The most pronounced fall was registered at Cortez,
where a 48% drop in processed grades led to a 14 tonne
37
MINE SUPPLY
United States
Canada
Mexico
250
200
Tonnes
MINE SUPPLY
SOUTH AMERICA
150
100
50
0
2005
2007
2009
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
38
2011
2013
500
400
Argentina
Colombia
Brazil
Chile
Dominican Republic
140
120
Peru
Ecuador
Guatemala
Suriname
Guyana
Other
Venezuela
100
Tonnes
Tonnes
300
200
80
60
40
100
2005
2007
2009
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
20
2011
2013
2005
2007
2009
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
2011
2013
39
MINE SUPPLY
ASIA
With an increase of almost 24 tonnes or 5%, Chinas mine
production increase to total 462 tonnes was the strongest
absolute gain globally. This continued to cement its
position as global leader and represented the fifteenth
consecutive year of expansion of the countrys gold
output. The principal driver was an uplift in the volumes
produced by small and mid-sized miners that sell their
ores and concentrates to third party gold smelters.
Accordingly, the volumes of domestically mined gold
that was smelted by third parties increased by 19% while,
conversely, mine-produced gold, which comprises
integrated mine-to-market production, fell by 11% yearon-year. As has been the case elsewhere, cognisant of
the drop in metal prices, a number of producers have
over the course of the past 18 months sought to optimise
operations and fast-track capital-efficient projects with a
strategy of expanding production and lowering unit costs.
MINE SUPPLY
250
200
150
100
50
0
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters; China Gold Association
40
50
Grasberg's Share of
Total Production (%)
64
350
300
58
54
42
150
38
100
Uzbekistan
Other
Mongolia
Kazakhstan
Philippines
Kyrgystan
250
38
50
Tonnes
Other
Grasberg
32
30
Tonnes
200
29
200
150
100
50
50
0
2005
2007
2009
2011
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters, Freeport McMoran
2013
2005
2007
2009
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
2011
2013
41
MINE SUPPLY
350
300
30
Other
Turkey
25
Russia
250
150
42
Bulgaria
Other
15
50
2005
2007
2009
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
Spain
Finland
10
100
Sweden
20
200
Tonnes
Tonnes
MINE SUPPLY
EUROPE
2011
2013
2005
2007
2009
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
2011
2013
300
250
Tonnes
200
150
100
50
2005
2007
2009
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters; BREE
(tonnes)
Mine name
Production Change
Country
2013 2014
yoy
1 Kibali
DRC
Mongolia
4.9
3 Tropicana
Australia
4 Akyem
Ghana
Pueblo Viejo
Dominican Rep.
Detour Lake
Canada
Oyu Tolgoi
7 Peasquito
Mexico
Mount Milligan
Canada
Cerro Negro
Argentina
10 Agbaou
2011
2013
Cte d'Ivoire
18.3
13.4
34.2
8.9
7.2
14.2
7.0
5.5
4.7
4.9
4.7
0.2
4.6
4.4
43
MINE SUPPLY
Over the last year, corporate activity in the gold mining sector
Rank
2014 2013
Output (t)
2013
2014
Barrick Gold
Newmont Mining
157.5
150.7
AngloGold Ashanti
127.7
138.0
4 4 Goldcorp
222.9
194.4
82.9 89.3
Kinross Gold
77.7 82.2
Newcrest Mining
73.5
Navoi MMC 1
70.5 73.0
Gold Fields 1
58.1 63.6
Polyus Gold
51.3
52.8
10
10
Sibanye Gold
44.5
49.4
72.4
Estimate
largest gold producers in the world, fell through for the third
50
30
40
20
20
10
2005
2007
2009
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
44
60
2011
2013
40
150
80
Number of deals
MINE SUPPLY
S&P 500
100
Philadelphia
Gold & Silver
Exchange Index
50
0
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
Gold
Jul-14
Jan-15
PRODUCTION COSTS
2014, to $749/oz.
3%, in 2014.
MINE SUPPLY
3000
3000
2500
2500
2000
2000
1500
1500
US$/oz
US$/oz
1000
2014 All-in Cost
2013 All-in Cost
500
500
0
10
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
0
20
30
40
50
60
Cumulative Production %
70
80
90
100
45
130
220
200
RUB
180
160
140
ZAR
120
BRL
100
80
Jan-13
Jul-13
Source: Thomson Reuters
Jan-13
Jul-14
110
CAD
100
MXN
90
80
Jan-13
Jul-13
Source: Thomson Reuters
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jul-14
860
770
700
2013
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
46
-8
-17
-70
FX
Fuel
-7
Recovery
Royalties
-2
740
Miscellaneous
+66
+1
Power
Labour
780
By-Product Credits
+3
+12
820
Jan-15
US$/oz
MINE SUPPLY
AUD
120
749
2014
$/oz Au
Mining
Mining
Ore Processing
Ore Processing
General & Administration
258
123
712
15
-20
41
749
234
983
107
106
By-Product
Credits
(-$20/oz)
331
118
1,314
47
MINE SUPPLY
3000
2500
2000
2000
1500
1500
1000
1000
500
500
US$/oz
US$/oz
2500
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Cumulative Production (%)
70
80
90
100
MINE SUPPLY
48
REGIONAL TRENDS
(US$/oz)
2013
2014
686
711
906
968
All-in Costs
1,438
1,234
668
668
South America
930
925
All-in Costs
1,512
1,288
Australia
885
809
1,163
1,086
All-in Costs
2,015
1,325
South Africa
970
931
1,154
1,107
All-in Costs
1,576
1,361
775
743
Other
978
954
All-in Costs
1,964
1,358
World
770
749
995
983
All-in Costs
1,741
1,314
1800
South Africa
Australia
World
1600
1800
South America
North America
Gold Price
1600
1200
1000
1000
US$/oz
US$/oz
1200
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
Q1.10
Q1.11
Q1.12
Q1.13
Q1.14
1400
1400
800
Gold Price
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters; Company Reports
2014
49
MINE SUPPLY
North America
AUD
24%
Fresnillo
Bought Puts
$1,122
$1,381
5%
OceanaGold
Sold Calls
$1,489
$1,677
3%
Evolution Mining
Forward Sales
$1,348
$1,475
3%
$1,680
$1,519
2%
B2Gold Corp
$925
$1,195
2%
Industrias Peoles
2%
Regis Resources
2%
Carpathian Gold
2%
Torex Gold
PRODUCER HEDGING
18%
Others
Last year saw the largest volume of net hedging, and only
the second year of net hedging (the other being 2011)
since 1999, the year in which the hedge book peaked.
Net hedging was seen in all quarters except the third,
with volumes very much skewed to the second and fourth
quarters, due to relatively large positions entered into by
Polyus Gold International and Fresnilloplc respectively.
In the second quarter of 2014 Polyus entered into
price protection arrangements covering 88 tonnes of
production, using a combination of zero cost Asian
barrier collars and forward sales, in order to derisk cash
flow through to 2018 while the company invested in the
Natalka project. Including the maturity of the companys
2014 contracts, this resulted in a net 55tonne increase
to the deltahedge book. In the fourth quarter Fresnillo
entered into what was then the first stage of a hedging
programme to manage the cash flow from its acquisition
of the remaining 44% of the Penmont Joint Venture.
The contracts cover 47 tonnes of production between
2015 and 2019 using a collar option structure. We
calculate that the delta-hedge against these contracts at
endDecember was 30 tonnes.
(tonnes, end-period)
2014
13.Q4 14.Q1 14.Q2 14.Q3 14.Q4
yoy
Forward Sales
77
83
91
86
100
Options
14
16
119
117
143 928%
Total
91
99
157
150
195
29%
113%
300300
1999 Peak
3000
3000
Global Hedge Book (tonnes)
2700
2700
Global Hedge Book (tonnes)
delta-adjusted
MINE SUPPLY
38%
2400
2400
2100
2100
1800
1800
1500
1500
1200
1200
900
900
600
600
300
300
00
94
96
98
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
50
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
Non-Vanilla Options
270
250
240
Vanilla Options
Forward Sales
210
200
180
150150
120
100
90
60
50
30
00
Q1-10
Q4-11
Q4-12
Q4-13
Q4-14
% of Gross
Hedging
Change
(tonnes)
41%
55
Fresnillo plc.
22%
30
Torex Gold
5%
5%
% of Gross
De-hedging
(tonnes)
Petropavlovsk plc.
17%
-5
16%
-5
Beadell Resources
13%
-4
9%
-3
Company
Forwards
Vanilla Puts
Vanilla Calls
Barrier Puts
Barrier Calls
30
Non-Vanilla options
25
Tonnes
20
Vanilla Options
Forwards
15
10
5
0
Q4-15
Q4-16
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
Q4-17
Q4-18
Q4-19
51
MINE SUPPLY
OVERVIEW
Supply of gold into the market can be sourced either
from new mine production or from the recycling or
mobilisation of the existing, and substantial, aboveground stocks of metal. The former (as well as producers
hedging activities) is discussed in detail in Chapter 3 of
this Gold Survey, while the latter topics are covered in
this chapter. At present, the official sector is a source
of significant net demand in the gold market and is
accordingly not detailed in this chapter but instead in a
separate following chapter.
In this chapter, we examine the recycling of scrapped
fabricated products. Another possible source of supply
from above-ground stocks of gold, namely bullion held
by private individuals and non-official institutions, is
discussed in more detail in Chapter 2. As was the case in
2013, some areas of the investor side of the market were
again a source of supply last year, with substantial ETF
sales, albeit far less than compared to 2013.
The table on the next page provides a summary of
annual supply to the market from mine production and
above-ground stocks over the 2012-2014 period. Also,
in addition to hedging supply, we have incorporated
the supply of metal from ETF sales, which prior to 2013
had not been an annual source of supply to the market.
Indeed, gold ETFs have enjoyed steady inflows for years
until the start of 2013, driven by adoption among the
retail and institutional sectors. However, since 2013, that
robust uptake came to an abrupt end and gold ETF sales
became the embodiment of the strong correction in the
gold price that followed.
Jewellery (2,213t)
Official Sector
Purchases (466t)
Industrial Fabrication (400t)
Private Investment* (1,283t)
Total Stocks
(4,362t)
Transformed/Transferred (4,362t)
52
2012 2013
2014
tonnes share tonnes share tonnes share
Mine Production
2,875
63%
3,061
78%
3,133
69%
Above-Ground Stocks
1,677
37%
2,167
22%
1,388
31%
- Scrap
1,677 -
1,287 -
1,125 -
- Hedging Supply
- - - -
103 -
880
160
4,552
5,228
4,521
Total
1-month
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
2002
2004
2006 2008
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
2010
2012
2014
1-mth
3-mth
6-mth
12-mth
2012
2013
2014
53
SCRAP SUPPLY
Global scrap supply fell 13% last year to a five-year
low of 1,125 tonnes due to a continued weak price
environment and reduced distress selling.
EUROPE
NORTH AMERICA
North America generated 116 tonnes of scrap in 2014, a
22% decline from the previous year. This rate of decline
was an improvement over the 30% fall in scrap generated
in 2013. The smaller decline in the annual average gold
price of 10% in 2014 against 15% in 2013 helped curb the
drop in scrap last year.
Scrap from price-sensitive sources, namely jewellery,
dental, and coins, fell last year. Dental scrap continued
to decline at an aggressive rate due to dwindling aboveground stock. Gold use in the dental lab industry
continues to decline to the benefit of metal-free
alternatives. An improved economy, higher disposable
incomes, and lower unemployment weighed on jewellery
and coin scrap. In contrast to previous years, electronic
scrap volumes fell in 2014 due to lower precious metals
content in material returned to recyclers.
Asia
Asia
3% 1%
Europe
Europe
8%
North America
Africa
7%
2% 1%
North America
Africa
10%
South America
South America
Oceania
Oceania
10%
54%
59%
19%
26%
54
Gold Price
Scrap Share of Total Supply
100
1000
20
500
10
2001
2006
2011
2.5
Jewellery Stocks
Scrap
90
2.0
80
1.5
70
1.0
60
0.5
50
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
30
1500
1996
2000
40
0
1991
50
0.0
55
Ch5 Scrap
Share of
Total
Supply
SCRAP
SHARE
OF
TOTAL
SUPPLY
MIDDLE EAST
EAST ASIA
In Saudi Arabia, scrap volumes declined broadly in
line with the global average, slipping 12% to around
21tonnes. The extent to which the volume of gold
being returned to market has fallen in recent years has
been quite extraordinary. Our estimated volumes for
2014 are 85% or 113 tonnes below the level in 2006
when consumers first rushed to take advantage of
the rise in the price (dollar gold peaked at $725 that
year). This initial wave of liquidations coupled with a
declining consumption market has left a depleted supply
chain and led to the current declining trend. With the
domestic price pegged to the US dollar, scrap flows
largely mirrored movements in the dollar gold price last
year, rising in the first quarter as gold trended higher
(breaching SR165 per gramme), but tailing off thereafter.
INDIAN SUB-CONTINENT
For the second consecutive year in a row, Indian scrap
supply declined by 26% to 74 tonnes, the lowest level
in three years. As a result, the share of global scrap
that is Indian fell 1% to 7% in 2014. Sales of gold scrap,
however, did increase in the first and the fourth quarter,
driven by higher prices for the former and a rise in
delinquency-driven collateralised gold auctions in case of
the latter.
Direct sales from consumers, however, continued to be
prevalent. Research conducted in tier three towns and
discussion with jewellers revealed a significant decline
in consumers willingness to exchange jewellery for cash.
This can be explained by a stronger presence of financial
institutions in the market, offering gold collateralised
56
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Europe
Italy
46.7
53.5
57.1
61.0
78.0
98.0
116.5
122.6
85.5
75.4
Turkey
67.7
82.5
71.5
199.0
217.2
122.0
78.0
72.3
56.3
41.4
41.0
4.5
10.7
Germany
7.6
11.4
France
12.1 18.6 16.8 21.2 24.9 29.2 40.3 33.5 26.7 21.5
Spain
3.7
United Kingdom
Russian Federation
18.9
6.1
19.3
11.7
18.8
5.8
20.7
38.7
59.4
69.8
76.0
69.0
24.4
32.7
44.1
45.5
40.3
31.1
31.2
23.8
10.6
20.1
31.9
32.7
35.9
23.5
21.1
21.4
28.7
26.4
19.2
23.5
24.2
18.6
Portugal
0.6
1.0
0.9
1.1
1.5
8.6
15.5
16.0
11.2
9.1
Belgium
1.3
2.7
2.6
3.7
6.1
8.2
9.1
8.6
7.8
6.7
Austria
3.4 3.9 3.7 4.7 6.4 7.9 8.0 7.6 6.7 6.1
Poland
2.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.9 7.7 7.5 5.1 4.1
Sweden
2.0 4.1 4.6 4.7 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.4 4.5 4.0
Switzerland
3.8 4.8 4.8 5.3 6.5 6.3 6.5 6.2 4.3 3.5
Finland
0.3
Other Countries
11.7 15.3 14.5 16.0 23.6 28.7 32.9 32.1 22.4 18.3
Total Europe
2.2
1.8
2.1
2.6
6.0
6.1
5.8
3.6
3.2
186.2 238.9 238.1 416.6 517.1 497.6 505.0 488.0 348.2 288.7
North America
United States
60.4
81.0
84.5
93.5
124.0
143.0
159.9
149.4
105.8
83.5
Mexico
7.2 12.0 17.6 28.1 40.8 45.6 47.6 54.1 37.2 27.2
Canada
5.0
7.5
6.3
6.9
9.2
11.1
10.8
9.8
6.7
5.7
Total North America 72.6 100.5 108.4 128.5 174.0 199.7 218.3 213.3 149.7 116.3
South America
Brazil
4.3
Colombia
3.8 4.1 4.3 5.1 6.6 8.1 8.7 9.5 1.4 1.4
6.8
Venezuela
3.7
4.3
6.4
5.7
7.5
6.0
11.4
7.1
16.1
8.3
22.2
8.7
24.6
8.1
16.0
6.2
9.8
5.6
Dominican Republic 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 5.0 5.9 6.1 1.4 1.2
Argentina
3.6 5.1 4.4 4.4 5.9 5.6 5.8 6.1 0.5 0.6
Other
4.6
South America
6.1
7.9
9.2
16.1
21.9
20.7
20.4
7.0
7.1
24.0 30.6 32.9 36.5 51.2 65.0 72.0 74.8 32.5 25.6
Asia
China
41.7
44.6
41.6
70.3
116.3
133.2
143.6
165.6
176.3
197.7
India
94.0
80.0
73.0
89.5
115.5
81.0
58.5
113.0
100.8
74.2
UAE
28.2
34.0
43.8
59.4
70.6
110.0
71.4
73.4
57.0
51.4
Pakistan
30.9
33.4
31.7
35.5
53.9
50.4
42.7
47.2
37.2
28.8
Indonesia
67.0
71.9
68.0
72.5
79.9
64.9
58.3
49.0
36.2
36.3
Japan
24.5
27.0
25.9
53.6
35.3
43.9
55.1
42.2
36.2
26.1
Thailand
12.4
19.1
37.4
51.7
66.0
44.7
52.4
43.6
30.6
25.7
7.8
8.3
9.0
12.2
51.5
49.8
41.1
36.4
28.2
26.2
Iran
16.1
21.9
23.1
26.0
32.2
32.7
32.4
32.9
24.3
22.1
69.4
57.3
44.1
33.5
23.6
Saudi Arabia
Syria
92.5
133.7
56.4
37.1
20.8
10.1 17.4 13.6 14.5 15.3 17.7 19.0 17.8 14.5 5.1
Malaysia
11.0
19.1
16.4
18.4
19.3
22.2
19.2
16.7
13.3
Taiwan
13.0
18.4
18.5
33.6
34.9
27.5
19.5
15.4
12.0
11.1
4.3
6.5
5.4
7.4
20.3
19.1
17.1
15.3
10.8
10.4
Iraq
12.4
Lebanon
6.6 9.9 4.9 6.2 15.1 19.7 14.9 12.7 9.6 8.5
17.5
S Korea
30.7
10.2
9.2
18.1
17.4
12.7
10.8
13.9
10.4
8.5
7.7
9.7
9.5
9.4
7.2
7.4
6.5 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.4 8.0 7.3 6.8 6.0 6.4
9.8
5.6
21.3
Hong Kong
21.8
7.0
20.5
4.6
12.4
8.7
13.7
Jordan
Kuwait
Vietnam
6.2
5.0
4.5
Singapore
3.3 4.2 5.0 5.4 6.1 5.8 8.9 7.4 4.8 4.5
Israel
5.2
Bahrain
1.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.7 4.5 4.0 3.5 2.6 2.5
Oman
2.2 3.8 3.1 3.8 4.5 4.4 3.4 3.1 2.4 2.2
11.4
5.0
6.1
6.6
8.3
7.0
5.6
4.4
4.5
57
2005
Bangladesh
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2.1 2.5 2.5 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.3 1.8
Qatar
0.9
Philippines
1.5 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.7 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.4
Other
Total Asia
2.3
2.6
2.5
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.8
1.5
1.4
9.5 11.0 11.4 12.4 13.7 13.8 13.6 13.0 11.4 10.4
527.6 654.0 541.4 703.0 876.6 852.1 769.0 790.1 669.0 612.9
Africa
Eqypt
72.7
77.5
56.5
35.8
65.0
48.0
47.6
53.6
43.2
39.9
Morocco
5.9 6.3 6.3 6.4 9.7 9.3 12.0 11.3 9.4 9.0
Libya
4.6
Algeria
2.7 2.8 3.4 3.6 5.8 6.1 7.9 7.6 6.8 6.6
Other
9.7
9.5
10.4
13.4
15.8
16.6
14.4
8.8
8.2
4.5 11.0 8.5 8.9 12.2 12.7 14.7 14.2 12.2 11.6
Total Africa
90.4 107.3 84.1 65.0 106.1 91.8 98.8 101.0 80.4 75.2
Oceania
Australia
1.9 1.5 1.5 2.0 3.1 6.8 12.0 10.2 7.3 6.6
Total Oceania
World Total
902.6
1,132.8
1,006.3
1,351.6
1,728.0
1,712.9
1,675.0
1,677.5
1,287.0
1,125.3
of which:-
Middle East*
325.3 435.2 306.3 449.8 531.1 453.8 352.3 341.4 262.4 222.0
East Asia*
208.2 254.2 246.7 350.2 444.1 423.5 427.9 401.1 356.5 358.8
23.5 24.0 25.4 26.7 35.3 32.8 30.1 31.2 25.0 25.2
CIS*
119.8
2000
Gold Price
Oceania
2000
200
1500
150
Africa
South America
North America
Tonnes
Asia
1000
800
500
400
Source: Thod
2004
2006
2008
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
58
2010
2012
2014
1200
Europe
Tonnes
1600
Gold price
Italian Scrap
Chinese Scrap
Indian Scrap
US Scrap
2000
1500
100
1000
50
500
0
2004
2006
2008
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
0
2010
2012
2014
US$/oz
E-SCRAP SUPPLY
Computers
Cell Phones
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
59
5. OFFICIAL SECTOR
significant source of net demand in the gold market in
2014. Net purchases by the official sector were
466 tonnes last year, up by 14% from 2013, reaching the
second highest annual total since the end of the gold
standard.
OVERVIEW
The estimates derived by the GFMS team at Thomson
Reuters for official sector transactions are based on a
combination of publicly available information, such as the
statistics regularly published by the IMF and information
extracted from individual central banks websites, plus
our own proprietary data on undeclared central bank
activity, compiled using information collected through
field research. Due to the lag that often exists between
activity taking place and being identified, it is possible
that our estimates will be revised in the future.
The official sector witnessed another year of strong
central bank interest in gold in 2014. After buy-side
activity reached a 48-year peak in 2012, the pace of gold
acquisitions from central banks slowed in 2013, albeit
staying at historically high levels. Last year, however,
600
Net Purchases
400
200
Tonnes
OFFICIAL SECTOR
0
-200
-400
-600
Net Sales
-800
2004
2006
2008
60
2010
2012
2014
Gold
Reserves
(tonnes)
Total
Reserves
(US$ bn)*
%
Held in
Gold*
United States
8,134
434.4
72.6%
Germany
3,384
193.5
67.8%
IMF
2,814
n/a
n/a
Italy
2,452
142.8
66.6%
France
2,435
144.0
65.6%
Russian Federation
1,208
385.4
12.1%
1,054
3,900.0
1.0%
Switzerland
1,040
545.8
7.4%
Japan
765
1,260.7
2.4%
Netherlands
612
43.1
55.2%
Source: IMF
*Gold valued using market prices
200
Russia
Iraq
Tonnes
150
Kazakhstan
Azerbaijan
100
50
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
SALES
The year 2014 was the fourth consecutive year in which
gross sales from the official sector remained minimal,
despite recording an increase of a seemingly impressive
280%, to reach 54 tonnes. Ukraine was responsible for
just over one third of the transactions, selling
19 tonnes of gold over the year, with 17 tonnes occurring
in October and November alone. The contraction in
holdings developed as a reaction to the continued conflict
with Russian-backed separatists, weighing down on
the economy, resulting in the hryvnia almost halving in
value over 2014 to a historic low, and it then tumbled by a
further 60% in the first two months of 2015.
The second largest seller in 2014 was Ecuador, which
undertook a swap transaction with Goldman Sachs and
hence its holdings dropped by 14 tonnes in the second
61
OFFICIAL SECTOR
2011
2012
2013
2014
77
457
544
409
466
PURCHASES
After a multi-decade high of 571 tonnes in 2012, gross
official sector purchases are estimated to have totalled
520 tonnes in 2014, an increase of 23% year-on-year.
It is important to emphasise that our gross figure does
not include the reported net increase in Turkish official
reserves (as was also the case in the last four years) as
this is reflected in changes in local commercial banks
gold deposits with the central bank. In 2014 this showed
as an increase of nine tonnes in Turkeys gold reserves.
For the third successive year, Russia was the largest
announced buyer in 2014, raising its official gold
holdings by a reported 173 tonnes. While Russia is a
long term regular purchaser of gold, this level of buying
was markedly higher than previously and was more
than double the level achieved in 2013, with purchases
concentrated in the last three quarters of the year, (with
37 tonnes bought in September alone). Underpinning
the substantial upturn was clearly, in our view, the
900
700
Net Purchases
500
300
100
-100
Tonnes
OFFICIAL SECTOR
-300
-500
-700
Net Sales
-900
-1100
-1300
-1500
1948
1953
1958
1963
62
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
200
Ukraine
Tonnes
150
100
OFFICIAL SECTOR
Russia
50
-50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$US Bn
40
20
Jul 14
80
Jan 15
10
15
15
10
Exchange Rate
25
Exchange Rate
30
70
30
60
400
Jan 14
20
50
Jul 13
US$ Bn
500
300
Jan 13
600
5
0
Jan 13
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 14
20
Jan 15
63
64
35
400
30
Net-Imports
25
300
20
15
200
10
100
5
0
Q1-10
Q1-11
Q1-12
Q1-13
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
*Exports include bars, jewellery medallions and coins
0
Q1-14
Rupees/10g (thousands)
Gold Price
Exports
Tonnes
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
862
760
779
1,123
1,208
969
781
877
9,378
12,319
15,310
18,386
24,003
29,730
29,310
28,278
Gross Imports*
Local Price (Rs./10g)
2014
*including Direct Imports (imports by premier trading houses), NRI Imports, Export Replenishments; 2012 to 2014 also includes
unofficial imports.
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
Exports
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Q1-10
Q1-11
Q1-12
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
Q1-13
Q1-14
65
Tonnes
150
60
20
15
40
20
0
Q1-10
Q1-11
Q1-12
Q1-13
Q1-14
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
*Calculated quantities based on reported import values
10
Singapore
UK
Others
Rupee
200
India
150
100
Tonnes
80
125
China
RMB
75
100
50
50
25
0
Q1-10
Q1-11
Q1-12
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
0
Q1-13
Q1-14
Gold Price
25
66
30
120
100
140
Tonnes
Ch6 BULLION
Turkey Official
Bullion Imports
Exports
TURKISH
IMPORTS
ANDand
EXPORTS
150
100
75
25
0
Q1-09
Q1-10
Q1-11
Q1-12
Source: Turkstat; GFMS, Thomson Reuters
Q1-14
130
50
110
Tonnes
40
Gold Price
30
90
20
Lira/g (thousands)
Q1-13
70
10
0
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters; Turkstat
Jan-14
Jul-14
50
67
Exports
50
MIDDLE EAST
Imports
125
Tonnes
150
2000
Gold Price
US$/oz
Tonnes
1500
100
1000
50
500
H1-09
H1-10
H1-11
H1-12
H1-13
H1-14
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
*excludes various round tripping and scrap related imports
EUROPE
Relative normality returned to European bullion trade
after an extraordinary year in 2013.
The year 2014 was the first year since 1980 that a full
country-by-country monthly breakdown of Swiss gold
bullion imports and exports was released. In addition,
country-by-country annual trade back to 1982 has now
been released. On a calculated basis, Switzerland
imported 1,660 tonnes of fine gold in 2014, a 36% decline
68
2014
Imports
Imports
2014 Exports
Exports
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
250
200
150
Tonnes
100
USA
UK
50
Italy
1,660 tonnes
50
UAE
Germany
100
Russia
Tonnes
Turkey
150
200
250
Others
1,741 tonnes
China
India
Hong Kong
Singapore
One cm2 is equal to 50 tonnes of gold and each countries flag is proportional to its trade. The whole rectangle for
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters; Swiss Impex* imports and exports is equal to the total trade and the grey area denotes trade with a country not represented by a flag.
Imports
Exports
Imports
Jan
250
200250
150200
100150
50 100
Tonnes
Tonnes
UK
India
Feb
Feb
Mar
Apr
Apr
May
May
Jun
Jun
Jul
Jul
Aug
Aug
Sep
Sep
Oct
Oct
Nov
Nov
Dec
Dec
0 50 0
0 50 0
UAE
UAE
Germany Russia
100 50
150100
200150
Tonnes
Tonnes
Others
Turkey
Turkey
Russia
China
China
Hong
Kong Singapore
HongIndia
Kong
Exports
Jan
Mar
250200
250
Others
Singapore
Exports
Jan
Feb
Mar
3000
2500
120
Jul
2000
Aug
90
Sep
1500
Oct
60
Nov
1000
250
500
0
US$ billion
Tonnes
150
Apr
Dec
200
150
UK
1982
Tonnes
100
USA
1987
50
Italy
India
0
Germany
50
UAE
Hong
1992 Kong
100
Russia
Tonnes
Turkey
China
1997 Singapore
2002
150
200
250
30
Others
2007
2012
Thomson
Reuters;
Swiss Impex*
Source:Source:
GFMS,GFMS,
Thomson
Reuters;
Swiss Impex*
Imports from the UK were high in the first two months of 2014
69
NORTH AMERICA
800
UK
Other
Hong Kong
India
500
Other
Hong Kong
400
Switzerland
USA
300
400
200
200
100
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
*Calculated quantities based on reported export values.
70
Tonnes
UK
600
Tonnes
2005
2007
2009
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
2011
2013
7. FABRICATION DEMAND
CARAT JEWELLERY
INDIAN SUB-CONTINENT
The bulk of the drop was due to a 9% drop in jewellery
fabrication, despite the weaker US dollar price
environment, mainly due to a hefty fall in Chinese output.
4000
Other
Official Coins
2000
Electronics
Jewellery
Tonnes
1000
1000
500
2009
2011
2013
100
2000
Jewellerys Share
Real Gold Price
90
1500
80
1000
70
500
60
50
2000
1500
2007
3000
2005
0
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
71
FABRICATION DEMAND
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
303.4 242.0 276.8 236.7 111.3 109.0 136.3 114.2 178.1 155.8
290.2
235.9
228.4
186.7
134.6
126.3
103.3
95.9
92.3
96.0
61.1
65.2
79.4
76.0
57.5
61.0
66.2
72.2
74.3
70.1
Switzerland
55.5
60.7
62.2
58.2
37.5
40.8
47.9
47.8
47.8
46.2
Germany
51.8
51.3
51.5
49.1
38.1
40.8
38.8
36.4
36.8
36.3
United Kingdom
28.6
24.4
16.9
15.6
15.2
13.9
15.5
15.2
13.9
15.4
Austria
8.5
5.7
6.5
26.3
34.6
19.1
22.3
13.7
21.5
14.8
France
16.4
14.4
14.0
13.0
11.0
11.1
10.1
8.4
7.6
7.8
Spain
27.4
24.2
23.6
19.3
13.6
8.4
7.1
6.3
5.8
5.5
Greece
8.6
7.8
8.5
7.4
6.2
6.2
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.9
Poland
4.5
4.5
6.0
6.1
4.6
3.2
3.0
2.7
2.5
2.8
Netherlands
5.5
5.3
4.2
3.3
2.9
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.3
Czech Republic
2.8
2.7
2.9
2.9
2.6
2.5
2.2
2.1
1.9
2.1
Portugal
7.2
5.3
4.6
3.6
2.9
2.3
1.7
1.4
1.4
1.7
Serbia
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Romania
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.8
Sweden
1.9
1.7
1.3
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
13.0
11.5
11.0
10.3
8.1
7.6
7.1
6.5
6.2
6.6
Total Europe
888.7
764.7
799.9
717.4
483.3
457.7
471.1
431.8
498.5
469.8
North America
218.8
210.9
179.0
175.2
173.4
179.1
166.7
146.9
160.0
149.8
26.8
22.0
22.2
40.1
48.4
43.7
44.9
32.4
44.5
31.7
Russia
Other Countries
United States
Canada
Mexico
Total North America
South America
Brazil
Chile
FABRICATION DEMAND
2005
Dominican Republic
Other Countries
Total South America
Asia
India
35.4
28.5
25.3
23.0
18.9
18.2
13.2
13.2
7.7
8.5
281.0
261.4
226.5
238.3
240.7
241.0
224.9
192.6
212.2
189.9
25.9 22.6 23.5 25.5 24.9 29.8 28.6 30.1 32.9 34.0
4.3
3.9
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.9
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.5
6.1
4.8
4.5
4.3
2.8
2.5
1.9
1.8
1.2
1.3
20.4
18.2
15.9
13.0
9.8
9.2
8.0
7.8
7.6
8.0
56.7
49.6
47.5
46.0
40.3
44.3
40.7
41.9
44.2
45.9
695.2
633.8
684.4
708.1
571.0
783.4
761.0
736.0
715.8
770.6
China
276.7
289.1
345.0
382.7
431.3
522.5
650.7
697.7
1,058.3
732.2
Japan
165.0
175.0
177.8
163.7
140.5
157.5
147.2
126.1
124.2
118.6
South Korea
83.3
82.3
86.1
77.5
65.0
68.1
62.2
54.1
49.1
46.8
Indonesia
86.5
64.8
63.2
61.4
46.0
38.9
39.3
44.1
51.6
44.5
40.7
Malaysia
74.3
58.0
61.0
56.3
45.0
43.7
37.1
34.7
44.6
Saudi Arabia
124.6
89.6
99.6
85.0
53.5
46.6
36.8
32.5
41.4
37.3
UAE
55.0
46.6
49.4
46.3
35.9
32.9
28.4
27.5
37.8
36.0
Iran
40.7
36.2
40.7
41.0
37.6
39.3
37.4
36.9
41.6
31.5
Singapore
30.0
28.7
29.5
27.6
23.3
25.3
23.6
21.8
25.4
26.7
Taiwan
31.9
30.7
29.7
27.5
23.1
26.1
24.0
22.5
22.2
21.3
Pakistan
64.2
53.9
50.4
43.8
29.7
26.1
22.1
20.6
24.6
20.9
Thailand
68.5
52.7
47.5
40.3
25.2
22.0
18.7
17.0
23.7
19.9
Hong Kong
14.6
14.9
15.4
15.6
14.7
15.8
16.5
14.8
14.6
13.9
Vietnam
28.3
22.6
21.6
19.6
14.7
13.5
12.4
10.7
11.4
12.4
Kazakhstan
10.4
11.3
11.9
10.9
8.8
10.4
11.4
10.9
11.1
11.2
Uzbekistan
10.4
11.3
11.9
10.9
8.8
10.4
11.4
10.9
11.1
11.2
Jordan
6.9
4.5
4.7
4.7
5.6
5.9
5.2
4.6
5.5
7.4
Kuwait
12.3
9.7
8.9
9.5
7.4
6.6
6.2
5.6
6.3
7.0
Israel
11.9
9.9
9.0
8.7
7.2
6.3
5.5
5.1
5.9
6.9
72
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Bahrain
11.4
9.6
9.9
8.7
6.5
5.7
5.1
4.6
5.8
5.6
Iraq
4.2
4.6
5.3
4.6
3.8
3.7
3.8
3.9
5.0
4.9
Lebanon
7.6
5.4
5.5
4.8
3.4
2.6
2.9
3.7
4.6
4.2
Oman
7.7
6.8
7.1
6.0
4.5
4.1
3.5
3.2
3.8
3.6
Sri Lanka
6.2
5.1
5.2
4.5
3.8
3.7
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.5
Nepal
6.9
5.8
5.3
4.5
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.5
3.9
3.0
Bangladesh
6.7
6.0
6.5
5.8
4.6
4.2
3.8
3.7
4.3
2.7
Syria
17.6
16.0
17.7
15.6
12.0
11.7
8.4
5.4
4.2
2.5
Myanmar
4.3
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.6
2.3
2.3
2.7
2.4
Qatar
3.7
3.1
3.2
2.7
2.1
1.9
1.6
1.7
2.1
1.9
Other Countries
9.0
8.6
12.3
12.3
8.9
7.7
6.4
6.1
6.8
6.6
1,975.6
1,800.5
1,929.4
1,913.9
1,649.9 1,952.4
2,001.6
1,975.2
2,372.7
2,057.8
Total Asia
Africa
Egypt
70.8 50.3 56.5 64.5 44.9 43.3 30.2 38.7 41.8 41.7
South Africa
10.0
10.3
14.0
16.4
28.3
24.6
27.4
27.2
30.8
24.9
Morocco
13.8
10.6
10.3
9.5
7.6
7.0
6.8
6.6
6.5
6.8
Libya
5.0
4.9
5.2
4.8
3.9
3.5
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.7
Other Countries
13.8
11.6
12.4
11.5
9.9
9.4
9.2
8.8
9.2
9.5
113.3
87.7
98.4
106.6
94.7
87.7
76.0
83.5
90.8
85.5
Total Africa
Oceania
Australia
9.9 10.3 10.5 14.0 14.6 12.0 13.9 13.3 19.6 14.8
Total Oceania
World Total
9.9
10.3
10.5
14.0
14.6
12.0
13.9
13.3
19.6
14.8
3,325.2
2,974.1
3,112.2
3,036.2
2,523.6
2,795.2
2,828.2
2,738.2
3,238.0
2,863.8
...of which:-
East Asia*
871.8 830.4 887.8 882.3 837.5 941.3 1,038.5 1,050.0 1,432.7 1,083.9
Middle East*
677.7 534.2 594.3 538.7 335.5 319.3 311.4 287.5 383.7 346.3
CIS*
82.2
Africa
111t
Africa
63t
Oceania 5t
Europe
730t
Europe
331t
Oceania 3t
North America
79t
South America
36t
North America
178t
Asia
1,645t
South America
52t
Asia
1,701t
73
FABRICATION DEMAND
GOLD FABRICATION IN INDUSTRIAL AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (INCLUDING THE USE OF SCRAP)
(tonnes)
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Industrial Countries*
Jewellery Fabrication
Electronics
693.7
586.5
550.3
467.3
352.4
339.0
307.6
286.7
294.8
302.7
254.1 278.5 280.3 262.1 219.1 262.4 251.5 219.1 212.7 205.9
Dentistry
59.4
Other Industrial
49.9 51.9 55.2 54.2 46.1 49.8 47.9 45.4 44.5 44.5
Official Coin
49.9 51.9 55.2 54.2 46.1 49.8 47.9 45.4 44.5 44.5
Medals
54.8
52.7
50.0
45.8
40.3
36.0
33.8
31.5
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
3.3
2.3
2.4
2.4
1,108.6
1,028.3
997.5
892.4
715.4
748.6
698.5
634.9
632.7
631.5
1,715.7
1,875.4
1,840.8
1,466.6
1,693.7
1,726.3
1,721.7
2,144.2
Sub total
Developing Countries*
57.7
Electronics
Dentistry
40.2
46.4
50.9
55.8
63.9
70.1
78.4
76.0
76.7
1,910.4
73.3
3.0 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4
Other Industrial
42.2
42.6
42.8
43.2
40.3
45.0
47.1
46.9
48.3
42.6
Official Coin
70.4
76.0
81.7
81.5
76.3
81.9
121.8
102.8
158.2
91.4
Medals
35.3
57.7
66.7
68.0
57.1
86.5
84.5
111.1
101.5
75.0
Sub total
2,219.2
1,941.4
2,120.3
2,092.1
1,706.8
1,979.8
2,060.7
2,061.0
2,531.4
2,195.0
World Total
3,325.2
2,974.1
3,112.2
3,036.2
2,523.6
2,795.2
2,828.2
2,738.2
3,238.0
2,863.8
FABRICATION DEMAND
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
India
573.5
516.4
557.8
599.8
471.4
657.6
618.3
552.0
612.7
662.1
China
241.4
244.7
302.2
340.6
376.3
453.8
550.9
608.7
972.1
633.3
United States
349.0
306.1
257.9
188.1
150.3
121.4
111.5
104.2
122.0
130.9
Russia
Turkey
UAE
Saudi Arabia
64.3 70.1 85.7 92.4 56.7 60.1 64.7 69.6 73.3 70.6
194.9
165.3
188.1
153.2
75.2
67.4
70.1
61.5
73.3
96.4
92.4
99.8
100.0
74.6
71.6
62.1
55.5
68.6
68.2
59.9
148.4
106.3
122.0
110.9
81.8
71.6
55.7
47.1
59.0
52.8
Egypt
75.3 60.0 67.8 74.3 56.7 53.4 33.8 39.7 45.1 47.4
Indonesia
78.0 57.7 55.2 55.9 41.0 32.8 34.2 38.8 45.2 39.8
Hong Kong
16.0
Iran
47.8 41.5 47.4 45.8 37.5 37.4 35.1 35.4 39.9 27.7
15.1
18.2
17.0
16.4
20.6
35.8
34.3
UK
59.4
52.5
50.3
Brazil
33.3
29.2
Pakistan
65.1
54.7
Italy
71.0
37.2
31.8
27.3
22.6
21.4
30.7
29.8
26.8
29.4
26.6
51.8
45.5
30.9
27.3
23.1
64.8
57.4
49.1
41.4
34.9
27.6
53.7
38.9
23.4
27.6
26.7
32.6
26.0
21.4
24.6
19.2
22.3
20.2
18.8
Canada
30.1
27.4
24.7
22.3
18.6
17.5
16.3
15.7
17.1
18.1
Japan
33.5
32.8
31.7
31.2
22.3
21.3
16.6
16.7
17.6
16.0
Vietnam
26.9 22.1 21.4 19.6 15.1 14.4 13.0 11.4 12.2 12.7
France
35.1
30.7
28.9
26.1
23.6
20.2
18.2
14.2
12.6
12.1
Mexico
42.4
37.1
34.9
28.5
26.4
23.8
19.9
15.1
6.6
8.0
74
Q3-14
Q4-14
161.0
187.0
207.0
Consumption
145.6
154.5
182.9
179.1
30,042
28,587
1000
250
15
50
10
5
Q1-12
Q1-13
Q1-14
GDP
200
600
150
400
20
100
Agricultural Production
800
Rupees/10g (thousands)
150
Q1-11
27,830 26,680
35
Gold Price
25
Tonnes
Q2-14
135.0
200
0
Q1-10
Q1-14
Fabrication
Tonnes
250
(tonnes)
100
200
50
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
75
FABRICATION DEMAND
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Europe
Turkey
251.1
184.9
219.7
183.2
80.0
73.0
77.0
73.8
87.1
114.8
279.0
224.4
215.3
172.6
123.3
116.0
93.8
86.2
82.6
86.2
Russia
44.4
47.6
58.5
53.2
34.9
39.4
45.1
49.2
51.9
49.8
Switzerland
32.2
35.8
36.0
35.0
20.1
21.1
29.4
31.1
30.1
28.7
Germany
21.3
19.9
19.9
19.0
14.8
15.1
15.4
14.7
14.7
14.7
United Kingdom
23.8
19.6
12.2
10.0
9.2
8.2
6.9
6.7
7.3
8.9
France
15.3
13.4
13.0
12.0
10.1
10.2
9.2
7.6
6.5
6.3
Spain
25.6
22.4
21.8
17.6
12.3
7.4
6.2
5.4
4.9
4.6
Greece
8.2
7.4
8.1
7.0
5.8
5.8
4.1
3.7
3.5
3.9
Poland
3.9
3.9
5.1
5.4
3.7
2.6
2.3
2.0
1.8
2.1
Portugal
7.1
5.3
4.5
3.3
2.8
2.2
1.6
1.3
1.3
1.5
Serbia
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.8
Italy
Other Countries
Total Europe
17.1
15.2
14.4
13.2
10.3
9.7
9.1
8.5
8.6
9.1
730.3
601.0
629.7
532.7
328.3
311.6
300.9
290.9
301.1
331.4
North America
United States
Canada
Mexico
Total North America
130.0
108.0
94.5
77.0
63.0
66.0
60.3
53.7
61.4
63.8
16.2
13.3
12.8
12.1
9.8
9.3
8.7
8.2
8.7
9.3
32.2
25.9
22.7
18.9
17.3
14.4
11.5
10.6
5.1
6.3
178.4
147.2
130.0
108.0
90.1
89.7
80.5
72.5
75.2
79.3
South America
Brazil
21.7
17.5
18.6
19.2
17.7
22.6
19.4
19.3
21.6
25.1
Chile
4.3
3.9
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.9
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.5
Dominican Republic
6.1
4.8
4.5
4.3
2.8
2.5
1.9
1.8
1.2
1.3
Colombia
2.3
1.9
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.2
FABRICATION DEMAND
Costa Rica
1.8
1.7
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.0
1.1
Other Countries
15.6
13.8
12.0
9.5
6.5
5.9
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.7
51.8
43.6
41.6
38.8
32.1
36.1
30.3
29.8
31.5
35.9
Asia
India
634.0
550.9
594.7
623.2
503.4
685.0
667.0
618.2
607.4
690.0
China
239.0
244.8
297.1
329.6
363.6
444.3
547.4
598.8
958.0
641.4
86.0
64.3
62.7
60.8
45.6
38.4
38.8
43.5
51.0
43.9
Indonesia
Malaysia
74.1
58.0
61.0
56.2
45.0
43.7
37.1
34.7
44.6
40.7
124.6
89.6
99.6
85.0
53.5
46.6
36.8
32.5
41.4
37.3
UAE
53.2
45.4
48.1
44.6
34.0
31.0
26.3
24.7
34.4
33.1
Iran
36.5
32.2
36.2
35.7
30.0
29.9
27.8
27.7
31.3
24.0
Pakistan
64.2
53.9
50.4
43.8
29.7
26.1
22.1
20.6
24.6
20.9
Thailand
66.0
50.2
44.8
37.5
22.7
19.3
16.0
14.3
20.9
17.2
11.2
9.9
10.9
10.2
7.9
8.9
9.7
10.4
15.0
16.6
15.9
Saudi Arabia
Singapore
Jordan
6.9
7.9
8.9
9.9
10.9
11.9
12.9
13.9
14.9
Japan
22.3
21.1
19.0
17.5
14.4
14.3
12.9
13.3
14.5
13.3
South Korea
44.5
36.4
36.1
30.3
23.4
20.3
16.7
13.9
12.9
12.9
Vietnam
28.3
22.6
21.6
19.6
14.7
13.5
12.4
10.7
11.4
12.4
Hong Kong
11.5
11.6
11.8
12.2
11.6
12.2
12.8
11.4
11.3
10.9
Kazakhstan
9.1
10.0
10.6
9.6
7.6
9.2
10.2
9.7
9.9
10.1
Uzbekistan
9.1
10.0
10.6
9.6
7.6
9.2
10.2
9.7
9.9
10.1
Kuwait
12.3
9.7
8.9
9.5
7.4
6.6
6.2
5.6
6.3
7.0
Israel
11.3
9.3
8.4
8.1
6.6
5.7
4.9
4.5
5.3
6.5
Bahrain
11.4
9.6
9.9
8.7
6.5
5.7
5.1
4.6
5.8
5.6
Iraq
4.2
4.6
5.3
4.6
3.8
3.7
3.8
3.9
5.0
4.9
Taiwan
16.1
12.3
10.3
9.1
5.8
5.3
4.6
4.6
4.9
4.5
Lebanon
7.6
5.4
5.5
4.8
3.4
2.6
2.9
3.7
4.6
4.2
7.7
6.8
6.0
4.5
4.1
3.5
3.2
3.8
3.6
Oman
76
7.1
Sri Lanka
Nepal
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
6.2
5.1
5.2
4.5
3.8
3.7
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.5
6.9 5.8 5.3 4.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.5 3.9 3.0
Bangladesh
6.7
6.0
6.5
5.8
4.6
4.2
3.8
3.7
4.3
2.7
Myanmar
4.3
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.6
2.3
2.3
2.7
2.4
Syria
17.0
15.4
17.1
15.0
11.4
11.1
7.7
4.8
3.7
2.4
Armenia
0.4
0.9
5.1
5.6
3.1
2.5
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
Qatar
3.7
3.1
3.2
2.7
Other Countries
8.6
4.2
3.0
1.5
0.5
2.1
-0.8
1.9
-3.3
1.6
-5.1
1.7
-4.6
2.1
-3.9
1.9
Total Asia
1,644.8
1,420.9
1,528.6
1,529.1
1,294.7
1,525.7
1,568.6
1,553.9
1,966.2
1,700.6
Africa
Egypt
70.8
50.3
56.5
62.4
44.0
42.1
28.7
37.5
40.7
40.8
Morocco
13.8
10.6
10.3
9.5
7.6
7.0
6.8
6.6
6.5
6.8
8.1
7.5
7.0
7.4
5.1
4.5
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.4
5.0
4.9
5.2
4.8
3.9
3.5
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.7
Algeria
3.9
3.0
3.4
3.1
2.5
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.3
2.3
Tunisia
2.2 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
South Africa
Libya
Other Countries
Total Africa
7.7
6.8
7.1
6.7
5.9
5.5
5.4
5.2
5.4
5.6
111.4
84.9
91.4
95.5
70.5
66.5
50.7
58.5
62.1
63.1
Oceania
Australia
5.0
4.5
4.4
4.0
3.2
3.2
2.9
2.8
2.9
5.0
4.5
4.4
4.0
3.2
3.2
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.7
2,721.8
2,302.2
2,425.7
2,308.1
1,819.0
2,032.7
2,033.9
2,008.4
2,439.0
2,213.0
Total Oceania
World Total
2.7
...of which:-
East Asia*
611.9
Middle East*
CIS*
542.7
586.4
593.2
563.0
627.9
715.1
762.1
1151.9
649.1 643.6
820.6
720.1
618.2 470.8 530.1 474.9 292.6 269.6 237.6 232.7 276.7 293.3
63.0 68.5 84.8 78.0 53.1 60.2 67.4 70.4 73.7 71.9
77
FABRICATION DEMAND
that Chinese demand for gold at the retail level, for bars, coins
and jewellery fell by more than 4% in 2014. Nor were these
FABRICATION DEMAND
Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland, which also inflates the
very good sign of the health of Chinas gold market, it blurs the
lines between demand for gold and the use of gold in financing
78
700
300
Tonnes
300
GDP (US$bn)
200
400
100
200
100
0
Q1-10
Q1-11
Q1-12
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
0
Q1-13
Q1-14
*The sum of total fabrication (including scrap) and physical bar investment
**Weighted average: Indonesia, South Korea, Thailand
EAST ASIA
79
FABRICATION DEMAND
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Europe
Turkey
197.9
117.4
164.7
100.2
24.8
18.5
29.0
30.8
51.4
88.5
Italy
232.3
170.9
158.2
111.6
90.3
70.0
49.8
46.2
58.6
66.2
Russia
36.0
38.8
49.0
43.2
21.2
27.4
34.6
38.2
43.9
41.3
Switzerland
32.2
35.8
36.0
35.0
20.1
21.1
29.4
31.1
30.1
28.7
Germany
16.3
13.9
14.2
13.3
9.8
10.0
10.4
9.7
11.6
12.7
United Kingdom
21.2
14.1
7.1
4.4
4.8
3.4
2.4
1.7
4.3
6.8
France
12.8
11.4
11.0
10.0
8.1
7.7
6.2
4.6
4.5
5.0
Greece
6.9
5.8
6.7
5.1
2.8
2.5
0.8
0.6
2.1
2.8
Spain
21.9
16.3
16.3
11.1
3.7
0.5
0.5
0.2
1.9
2.0
Poland
1.9
1.6
2.5
2.8
1.5
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.7
1.3
Portugal
6.6
4.4
3.7
2.5
1.5
0.6
0.3
0.4
0.8
0.9
Other Countries
11.3
7.3
7.6
7.0
4.1
2.4
1.3
0.7
4.2
6.0
597.3
437.7
476.9
346.0
192.7
164.3
164.7
164.6
214.0
262.1
Total Europe
North America
United States
106.6
84.0
72.0
57.0
41.0
39.5
34.4
27.3
33.4
Canada
12.2
7.8
8.3
7.6
5.3
4.6
4.2
4.6
5.3
6.3
Mexico
25.0
19.4
14.1
7.8
4.5
1.3
0.4
2.0
4.7
4.8
143.8
111.2
94.4
72.4
50.8
45.4
39.0
33.9
43.4
46.4
35.3
South America
Brazil
17.4
12.2
13.0
12.6
8.1
9.3
6.7
6.5
6.4
Chile
3.8
3.3
2.8
2.3
2.1
2.1
1.3
1.3
1.6
1.7
15.6
16.6
17.6
18.6
19.6
20.6
21.6
22.6
23.6
24.6
36.8
26.8
23.6
20.2
13.0
13.3
10.0
9.7
10.4
20.8
Other Countries
Total South America
16.2
FABRICATION DEMAND
Asia
India
540.0
470.9
521.7
533.7
387.9
604.0
608.5
505.2
506.6
615.8
China
198.0
201.6
257.0
264.9
262.7
334.6
438.4
468.1
818.1
480.8
35.6
Malaysia
68.3
49.4
53.5
48.6
36.0
35.2
29.9
28.3
39.0
Indonesia
34.5
26.0
25.8
29.5
16.8
15.6
16.5
26.0
38.3
31.8
Saudi Arabia
47.6
30.0
55.2
38.8
22.4
21.1
14.5
12.5
27.6
24.6
UAE
39.3
33.0
36.8
32.0
19.3
9.4
11.2
13.0
24.6
24.0
8.7
6.6
6.8
5.8
3.4
5.0
5.5
6.9
12.8
14.5
Singapore
Iran
24.0
14.0
17.9
15.3
10.7
12.1
10.3
11.7
19.0
12.8
Thailand
54.5
36.7
28.8
21.0
6.1
6.1
3.5
4.0
14.6
11.6
Kazakhstan
7.8
8.7
9.4
8.3
5.9
7.6
8.7
8.1
8.5
8.8
Uzbekistan
7.8
8.7
9.4
8.3
5.9
7.6
8.7
8.1
8.5
8.8
Vietnam
20.5
14.3
12.6
11.1
3.3
3.3
5.5
4.8
6.4
7.5
South Korea
33.8
24.2
24.3
18.3
7.6
7.3
5.0
4.7
7.0
7.5
Pakistan
36.7
24.5
23.6
14.8
3.9
6.3
6.0
3.8
11.7
6.9
Japan
11.8
9.7
6.4
4.2
3.1
0.7
2.4
6.2
6.6
Jordan
5.4
2.6
2.9
3.0
4.7
4.5
3.8
3.2
4.5
6.2
Hong Kong
5.6
5.3
5.2
5.2
4.4
5.5
7.0
6.1
6.5
5.7
5.3
Kuwait
4.2
2.7
3.4
4.1
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.1
4.5
Bahrain
10.0
6.4
6.7
5.5
3.0
2.8
2.5
2.5
4.2
4.1
Israel
6.1
3.9
3.4
2.2
1.7
1.0
0.9
1.0
2.6
3.6
Taiwan
6.7
1.8
2.7
2.9
1.1
1.2
1.5
2.7
3.6
3.5
Iraq
0.9
0.3
0.7
0.2
0.2
0.7
1.3
3.2
3.2
Oman
6.2
3.8
4.6
2.8
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.4
2.4
2.4
Myanmar
3.1
2.8
2.9
2.4
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.5
2.1
1.9
Nepal
5.8
4.3
3.7
2.8
1.6
1.7
1.7
2.2
2.8
1.8
Bangladesh
4.6
3.5
3.9
3.1
1.6
1.5
1.2
1.0
2.0
0.9
Other Countries
Total Asia
80
29.4
21.2
27.5
22.8
14.1
13.1
9.4
8.6
11.2
11.4
1,221.2
1,016.6
1,156.6
1,111.3
833.4
1,113.3
1,206.8
1,141.9
1,598.1
1,347.3
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Africa
Egypt
12.1
7.8
18.0
28.4
6.5
15.1
3.9
5.1
17.2
19.6
South Africa
7.0
6.2
5.8
6.0
3.8
3.2
2.1
2.0
2.2
2.4
Other Countries
20.9
14.7
14.6
11.4
5.8
6.1
4.8
4.7
6.6
7.9
Total Africa
40.0
28.7
38.4
45.8
16.1
24.4
10.8
11.8
26.0
29.9
Oceania
Australia
4.3
3.8
3.7
3.3
2.2
1.7
0.6
0.4
1.2
1.1
Total Oceania
4.3
3.8
3.7
3.3
2.2
1.7
0.6
0.4
1.2
1.1
2,043.4
1,624.8
1,793.5
1,599.0
1,108.2
1,362.3
1,432.0
1,362.1
1,893.0
1,748.4
World Total
...of which:-
Indian Sub-Continent*
591.6
505.9
555.2
555.7
396.0
614.8
618.3
513.0
524.6
627.5
East Asia*
451.8
383.1
430.4
418.0
349.0
418.8
516.2
557.4
957.4
609.8
Middle East*
372.1
234.8
330.1
244.5
105.2
96.1
86.5
89.9
166.2
199.1
51.8
56.8
72.5
64.9
35.7
44.6
53.3
55.7
62.4
60.4
CIS*
1000
2500
China
400
Bullion Imports
Fabrication
India
800
2000
600
1500
350
Gold Price
Tonnes
400
250
1000
RMB/g
Tonnes
300
200
200
500
150
0
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
100
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
81
FABRICATION DEMAND
reduced.
banks.
The UAE, via Dubai, and Kuwait both serve not just domestic
markets but also the wider Gulf region and often see volumes
elevated levels.
Hong Kong and Singapore have both fallen down the list
FABRICATION DEMAND
subsides.
Country
2014 Demand
% of Global Total
Country
Rank
Grammes/Capita 2014
China
895 24.2%
UAE
1 8.54
India
852 23.1%
Kuwait
2 8.09
United States
242
Hong Kong
6.5%
6.14
Singapore 4 4.94
Japan
119 3.2%
Qatar
5 2.43
Turkey
119 3.2%
Saudi Arabia
2.25
Thailand 93 2.5%
Belgium 7 1.97
Russia
93 2.5%
Canada
Iran
79 2.1%
Germany 9 1.60
UAE
71 1.9%
Turkey
8 1.64
10 1.55
Vietnam 69 1.9%
Thailand 11 1.40
Saudi Arabia
Taiwan
67
1.8%
12 1.22
Indonesia 58 1.6%
Australia 13 1.21
Egypt
58 1.6%
South Korea
14
Canada 58 1.6%
Iran
15 1.02
South Korea
55
1.5%
Japan
16 0.94
Hong Kong
44
1.2%
Vietnam 17 0.77
United Kingdom
41
1.1%
United States
18
Brazil
35 1.0%
India
19 0.69
Pakistan 33 0.9%
Egypt
20 0.68
82
1.10
0.76
80
12
Exchange Rate
10
60
8
40
6
4
20
2
0
0
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
83
FABRICATION DEMAND
Tonnes
80
Fabrication for the Domestic Market
Exports to the United States
Other Exports
60
Tonnes
FABRICATION DEMAND
40
20
0
2005
2007
84
2009
2011
2013
15
80
Platinum
Domestic
Exports
White Gold
Yellow Gold
60
Tonnes
Tonnes
10
40
5
20
0
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
85
FABRICATION DEMAND
FABRICATION DEMAND
86
EUROPE
European jewellery fabrication continued to recover
in 2014, growing by 10% to an estimated 331 tonnes,
the highest since 2008. The recovery was thanks to
a strong rebound in Turkey and a return to growth in
Italy.
100
Italy - Domestic
Italy - Export
80
60
40
20
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
300
Europe*
250
N. America
Tonnes
200
S. America
150
Middle East
100
East Asia
50
Others
0
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
10
15
20
25
Tonnes
30
35
40
Calculations based on Italian export data.Shows only the direct flow of finished pieces.
87
FABRICATION DEMAND
FABRICATION DEMAND
88
NORTH AMERICA
An improved economy, lower prices, better
manufacturer margins and favourable fashion trends
pushed US gold jewellery fabrication demand up 4%
in 2014.
SOUTH AMERICA
We expect gold demand for jewellery fabrication in
South America to decline considerably in 2015 as
deteriorating economic conditions dampen demand.
Continuing the momentum from 2013, jewellery
fabrication in South America grew by 14% to reach
an estimated full year total of 36 tonnes. Brazil, the
largest gold fabricator in the region, saw demand reach
25 tonnes in 2014, a 16% increase from the previous
year. While economic growth has boosted consumers
purchasing power, the meteoric rise in the gold price in
the past ten years has priced gold jewellery beyond the
affordability of the masses. As tastes and preferences
are still strongly rooted in the appearance of gold,
the inability to afford carat jewellery has prompted
a substitution trend towards gold plated designs,
160
140
Jewellery Fabrication
Dentistry
Official Coins
200
Others
East Asia
Electronics
120
South America
150
Turkey
Tonnes
Tonnes
100
80
Italy
100
60
40
50
20
0
0
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
89
FABRICATION DEMAND
MIDDLE EAST
80
Other
Brazil
Tonnes
60
Fabrication in the Turkish market saw its strongest year
since 2008 as domestic production rose by 32% over
2013. This rapid increase in gold content was brought
about by a number of factors, most notably a rapid
expansion of exports in the 18- and 22-carat markets.
40
20
0
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
400
Others
Turkey
Egypt
GCC*
Gold Price
1800
700
1500
600
500
600
100
300
0
H1-06
0
H1-08
H1-10
H1-12
90
H1-14
US$/oz
900
Tonnes
1200
200
Others
Egypt
Turkey
300
Tonnes
FABRICATION DEMAND
GCC*
400
300
200
100
0
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
91
FABRICATION DEMAND
FABRICATION DEMAND
92
350
60
280
210
40
140
20
70
0
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Egyptian Pound/g
price, Iran has levied the tax on the total cost of the item,
which has inflated the purchase price substantially, and
has encouraged a parallel trade to emerge.
Tonnes
ELECTRONICS
GLOBAL BILLINGS
(semiconductor billings, millions US dollars)
Global electronics demand fell for the fourth year in
succession in 2014, slipping a further 3.5% to
279 tonnes. The drop has left gold demand in this
segment 16% or 53 tonnes below the historical peak
recorded in 2010. While there has been a robust recovery
in consumer demand for electronics on the back of an
improving economic environment, globally it is far from
uniform. Economies within the Eurozone, China, and
Japan, all major markets for the production of electronics,
have felt the impact of sluggish economic growth.
The impact of the economic slowdown was widespread,
with falls registered in almost all key markets. Japan,
the largest market in this group, declined 4% year-onyear, while South Korea and Taiwan retreated by 9%
and 3% respectively. The US market, benefiting from an
improving economic environment, saw offtake largely
unchanged compared to 2013 volumes.
350
Other Asia/Pacific
303.3
60.5
2014
Americas
Europe
Japan
Asia
333.6
68.3
37.4
35.0
192.9
Change
30.2
7.8
2.9
0.0
19.6
Change %
10%
13%
8% -0.1% 11%
Source: SIA
Europe
200
Americas
120
Japan
160
210
120
Tonnes
280
140
80
80
70
40
2005
Source: SIA
2007
2009
2011
2013
World
2013
60
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
93
FABRICATION DEMAND
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
112.4 123.6 128.4 116.0 94.5 115.0 108.0 88.0 85.7 82.5
China
22.9 28.7 32.6 37.5 47.1 52.5 60.7 58.4 59.0 56.2
United States
55.2
57.4
50.2
52.1
46.2
55.8
58.3
55.7
55.4
55.5
South Korea
28.0
32.9
35.6
33.3
28.8
33.4
31.6
27.0
23.5
21.4
Taiwan
14.6
Germany
12.2 14.3 15.3 14.5 9.8 12.6 12.0 11.2 12.5 12.1
Russia
12.0 12.1 12.6 13.1 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.0
Singapore
18.5 18.5 18.3 17.2 15.1 16.3 13.8 11.3 10.3 9.9
Switzerland
7.3 8.9 9.1 7.5 4.7 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.2
India
2.2 2.6 2.5 2.1 1.9 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4
2.1
Hong Kong
1.7 1.9
2.0 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7
Other Countries
5.1
4.8
4.4
3.6
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.8
3.0
294.3
324.9
331.2
317.9
282.9
332.5
330.0
295.1
289.5
279.3
World Total
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.9
FABRICATION DEMAND
94
2005
World Total
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
DENTISTRY
Demand for gold used in dental applications continued
its secular retreat in 2014, sliding 7% to a record low of
33.9 tonnes. The decline, which started a decade ago,
was initially driven by the price increase of the yellow
metal. Higher prices triggered a migration to cheaper
metal alternatives and porcelain-fused-metal (PFM)
before aesthetic concerns ushered the trend to ceramics.
The modest fall marked the eleventh consecutive annual
decline that has seen demand in this sector almost halve
over the last decade. Unlike the bonding wire industry
where gold enjoys an unparallel functional advantage
in certain fields, gold in dental applications is losing
favour to the improving quality of ceramics in terms of
biocompatibility, chemical stability, flexural strength,
and life span, especially after the invention of zirconia
ceramics.
United States
Other
Japan
Germany
Tonnes
60
40
20
2005
2007
2009
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
2011
2013
95
FABRICATION DEMAND
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
China
5.5 6.3 8.1 10.1 13.9 17.2 18.7 19.2 19.5 19.2
Switzerland
13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4
South Korea
7.6
Brazil
4.2 5.1 4.9 6.3 7.2 7.2 9.2 10.8 11.3 8.8
Italy
9.8
7.0
India
11.3
11.1
10.0
11.8
11.4
10.8
10.6
10.3
9.1
9.7
7.4
Japan
6.3 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.4 5.9 5.4 5.4 5.6
Germany
3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 2.6 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9
Thailand
2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6
United States
5.7 4.5 3.1 2.8 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.5
Hong Kong
1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.3
Other Countries
8.6
9.6
10.6
11.6
12.6
13.6
14.6
15.6
16.6
17.6
92.0
94.5
98.0
97.4
86.4
94.8
95.0
92.3
92.8
87.1
World Total
India
Other Europe
East Asia
Switzerland
Other
80
Tonnes
FABRICATION DEMAND
60
40
20
0
2005
2007
96
2009
2011
2013
FABRICATION DEMAND
25
Other
Taiwan
Japan
20
Tonnes
Hong Kong
Europe
15
10
0
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
97
8. APPENDICES
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 - Gold Futures and Options Turnover (COMEX, SHFE, and TOCOM)
98
38,373,367
306,651
4,392,637
3,890,447
46,212
14,960,381
72,439
2009
35,136,388
489,779
4,850,111
3,406,232
101,316
11,913,502
134,163
2010
44,730,345
585,114
7,673,165
3,272,646
78,768
12,198,340
117,657
2011
49,171,091
419,154
9,477,081
7,221,758
102,312
15,193,602
123,688
2012
43,893,380
427,991
9,106,807
5,916,745
111,424
11,895,357
145,738
2013
47,291,629
379,550
10,247,306
20,087,824
170,992
12,224,581
90,135
2014
40,517,778
371,646
7,900,688
23,858,066
194,812
8,744,990
73,137
2013
Jan
4,221,119
424,165
940,044
333,658
123,134
1,282,839
Feb
3,632,342
435,263
1,038,071
249,915
124,902
1,339,193
140,800
141,559
Mar
3,906,568
408,594
887,611
346,681
124,504
957,936
143,098
108,422
Apr
5,218,768
421,087
1,434,651
794,755
107,970
1,719,855
May
5,312,285
375,206
904,087
1,178,181
113,280
1,115,809
101,207
Jun
3,744,747
409,081
784,258
747,093
122,856
1,094,429
105,790
Jul
4,647,176
398,573
925,609
3,581,330
163,592
1,049,758
109,802
Aug
3,463,769
381,963
712,054
4,372,781
146,932
953,479
106,075
Sep
3,331,945
369,196
653,543
2,294,726
126,944
830,574
101,911
Oct
3,458,162
387,763
641,769
2,000,275
150,716
748,222
102,603
Nov
3,577,065
383,966
667,131
1,894,919
164,734
531,061
102,650
Dec
2,777,683
379,550
658,478
2,293,510
170,992
601,426
90,135
2014
Jan
3,754,843
373,806
630,017
1,841,336
155,174
Feb
2,607,548
386,303
Mar
4,199,295
367,561
Apr
2,692,897
541,515
92,038
659,603
1,659,041
617,552
2,782,670
203,574
680,718
78,739
211,928
702,569
380,212
673,526
81,700
2,000,586
202,452
590,702
85,695
May
3,631,134
377,338
626,964
1,585,457
233,646
553,903
98,669
Jun
2,508,081
401,090
646,377
1,494,263
199,788
562,274
85,901
Jul
3,848,342
368,538
565,498
1,590,619
199,448
606,190
91,847
Aug
2,381,778
365,115
448,134
1,407,683
202,926
577,285
94,153
Sep
3,205,752
379,874
694,968
1,545,915
196,216
792,410
99,730
Oct
3,703,708
416,728
885,905
1,535,052
259,266
1,000,120
94,140
Nov
78,747
Dec
73,137
1.
APPENDICES
99
261.55
Germany
8,135
11.04
130.78
70.7%
261.50
8,134
11.04
315.37
72.6%
55.10 55.0%
Italy
39.41 60.7%
France
Russia
6.22 3.4%
19.29
9.65
33.89
Switzerland
Japan
Netherlands
19.69
India
600
4.07
1.91
1.2%
11.17 55.4%
1,054
9.82
40.87
1.0%
7.4%
Turkey
3.73 116
Taiwan
Portugal
13.42 417
6.89
1.87 3.6%
6.71 65.9%
Venezuela
5.74 19.3%
Saudi Arabia
4.60
143
0.23
2.30
1.5%
10.38
323
0.43
12.52
1.7%
United Kingdom
9.99
311
5.13
5.00
11.5%
9.98
310
12.03
12.03
11.2%
Lebanon
9.22 287
4.74
4.61 27.9%
Spain
14.72 458
7.55
7.36 43.2%
Austria
4.86 41.6%
Belgium
7.32 228
3.76
3.66 30.8%
Philippines
2.48 13.5%
7.57 9.5%
Kazakhstan
1.92 60 0.99
0.96 13.6%
7.44 25.7%
Algeria
Thailand
2.70 84 1.37
Singapore
Sweden
2.71 10.9%
4.87 7.8%
South Africa
3.99
1.99
4.03
4.85
Mexico
0.11
124
2.05
1.35 2.6%
9.7%
125
4.83
11.12 21.9%
8.82 34.7%
9.9%
Libya
2.31 5.5%
Greece
3.47 108
1.78
1.74 77.4%
3.62
South Korea
0.46
0.07
3.36
104
14
0.23
0.1%
4.79
4.05
1.1%
ECB
23.15
720
IMF
16.18
503
103.44
3,217 90.45
2,814
BIS
5.97
186
8.57
267
World
APPENDICES
991.30
30,833 1,029.90
32,034
National valuation. Market valuation based on end-2005 and end-2014 gold PM fix respectively. 3 Calculated using year-end gold PM fix.
2
100
PM Fix
Low
High
Mumbai
US$/oz US$/oz US$/oz
euro/kg* CHF/kg yen/g A$/oz rand/kg yuan/g Rs/10 g
1979
304.69
216.85
512.00
9,187
16,324
2,189
274.76
8,279
15.23
1,043
1980
614.50
481.50
850.00
18,284
32,946
4,457
537.56
15,331
29.60
1,452
1981
459.24
391.25
599.25
17,000
28,997
3,247
399.71
12,863
25.17
1,705
1982
375.17
296.75
481.00
15,016
24,599
3,016
371.96
13,142
22.83
1,708
1983
423.61
374.25
509.25
17,752
28,564
3,238
470.00
15,162
26.91
1,821
1984
360.78
307.50
405.85
16,811
27,144
2,749
409.90
16,948
26.91
1,958
1985
317.26
284.25
340.90
15,314
24,982
2,429
453.70
22,855
29.95
2,106
1986
367.85
326.30
438.10
13,067
21,147
1,983
553.11
27,126
40.84
2,210
1987
446.22
390.00
499.75
13,181
21,383
2,073
636.24
29,217
53.40
2,891
1988
436.87
395.30
483.90
12,604
20,532
1,801
560.13
31,889
52.28
3,202
1989
380.79
355.75
415.80
11,770
20,021
1,688
481.25
32,063
46.10
3,185
1990
383.59
345.85
423.75
10,192
17,148
1,784
491.27
31,893
58.99
3,406
1991
362.26
344.25
403.00
9,885
16,707
1,567
465.03
32,154
62.00
4,033
1992
343.95
330.35
359.60
8,819
15,522
1,400
468.13
31,502
60.98
4,255
1993
359.82
326.10
405.60
9,793
17,103
1,282
530.13
37,880
66.66
4,384
1994
384.15
369.65
396.25
10,235
16,865
1,261
525.36
43,867
106.45
4,652
1995
384.05
372.40
395.55
9,042
14,589
1,160
518.50
44,787
103.12
4,799
1996
387.87
367.40
414.80
9,587
15,388
1,355
495.99
53,466
103.68
5,191
1997
331.29
283.00
366.55
9,429
15,457
1,286
445.02
48,993
88.30
4,556
1998
294.09
273.40
313.15
8,506
13,707
1,238
467.79
52,307
78.28
4,182
1999
278.57
252.80
325.50
8,405
13,450
1,018
431.84
54,764
74.14
4,327
2000
279.11
263.80
312.70
9,734
15,158
967
480.88
62,173
74.29
4,518
2001
271.04
255.95
293.25
9,737
14,714
1,058
524.53
74,842
72.13
4,462
2002
309.68
277.75
349.30
10,545
15,470
1,245
569.76
104,477
82.41
5,131
2003
363.32
319.90
416.25
10,328
15,704
1,352
558.35
88,008
96.68
5,620
2004
409.17
375.00
454.20
10,582
16,335
1,422
556.01
84,738
108.88
6,119
2005
444.45
411.10
536.50
11,521
17,839
1,577
583.36
91,114
117.09
6,454
2006
603.77
524.75
725.00
15,452
24,298
2,256
801.47
131,751
154.78
8,912
2007
695.39
608.40
841.10
16,294
26,775
2,628
828.48
157,352
169.85
9,345
12,256
2008
871.96
712.50
1,011.25
19,071
30,267
2,907
1,033.13
229,694
194.79
2009
972.35
810.00
1,212.50
22,402
33,834
2,919
1,235.22
261,600
213.98
15,310
2010
1,224.52
1,058.00
1,421.00
29,739
40,947
3,444
1,331.28
287,568
266.15
18,386
2011
1,571.52
1,319.00
1,895.00
36,328
44,615
4,017
1,524.33
368,623
326.59
24,003
2012
1,668.98
1,540.00
1,791.75
41,755
50,297
4,278
1,610.49
440,575
338.51
29,730
2013
1,411.23
1,192.00
1,693.75
34,196
42,073
4,412
1,454.85
433,964
279.18
29,310
2014
1,266.40
1,142.00
1,385.00
30,638
37,202
4,298
1,402.94
440,561
250.82
28,278
* Prior to 1999 Deutsche Mark prices have been converted into euros at the official conversion rate
APPENDICES
101
APPENDIX 4 - REAL GOLD PRICES IN VARIOUS CURRENCIES (CPI DEFLATED - CONSTANT 2014 MONEY TERMS)
Average, high and low US$ prices are based on the London PM fix.
Except for the Mumbai price, other prices are calculated using the PM fix and London exchange rates.
PM Fix
Low
High
Mumbai
US$/oz US$/oz US$/oz
euro/kg* CHF/kg yen/g A$/oz rand/kg yuan/g Rs/10 g
1979
993.78
707.27
1,669.93
20,925
31,096
3,144
1,218.19
191,372
94.12
16,793
1980
1,765.83
1,383.63
2,442.55
39,501
60,334
5,937
2,164.02
311,794
170.11
21,008
1981
1,195.58
1,018.58
1,560.09
34,543
49,865
4,123
1,469.66
226,981
140.99
21,813
1982
920.05
727.74
1,179.59
28,985
40,038
3,728
1,228.20
202,292
125.33
20,240
1983
1,007.04
889.69
1,210.62
33,179
45,160
3,929
1,410.32
207,807
144.85
19,322
1984
821.78
700.41
924.43
30,683
41,692
3,261
1,183.14
208,284
140.98
19,169
1985
698.02
625.39
750.03
27,353
37,097
2,823
1,226.92
241,527
140.29
19,504
1986
793.90
704.22
945.50
23,368
31,168
2,291
1,371.61
241,591
178.73
18,870
1987
929.76
812.62
1,041.30
23,515
31,069
2,392
1,453.73
224,016
217.96
22,649
1988
874.43
791.22
968.56
22,203
29,284
2,065
1,193.70
216,792
179.74
22,936
1989
727.34
679.50
794.20
20,175
27,682
1,892
953.74
189,986
133.36
21,306
1990
695.02
626.64
767.78
17,011
22,494
1,941
907.08
165,304
165.60
20,906
1991
629.81
598.50
700.65
15,842
20,702
1,650
832.19
144,500
168.07
21,741
1992
580.33
557.38
606.74
13,640
18,487
1,450
829.35
124,320
155.45
20,518
1993
589.59
534.35
664.61
14,666
19,721
1,310
922.99
136,253
148.32
19,876
1994
613.54
590.38
632.87
14,923
19,282
1,281
897.03
144,840
190.75
19,137
1995
596.65
578.54
614.51
12,868
16,386
1,180
846.16
136,066
157.85
17,910
1996
585.38
554.49
626.03
13,354
17,144
1,376
788.79
151,306
146.50
17,778
1997
488.58
417.36
540.57
12,935
17,131
1,284
706.14
127,671
121.35
14,560
1998
427.10
397.06
454.79
11,541
15,189
1,227
735.95
127,534
108.42
11,802
1999
395.88
359.26
462.58
11,280
14,785
1,012
669.45
126,945
104.15
11,668
2000
383.73
362.68
429.91
12,796
16,406
968
713.67
120,511
103.99
11,712
2001
362.43
342.25
392.13
12,507
15,770
1,067
745.58
155,810
100.24
11,146
2002
407.59
365.57
459.74
13,245
16,474
1,268
786.43
199,248
115.42
12,289
2003
467.45
411.59
535.55
12,709
16,618
1,380
750.19
158,550
133.85
12,967
2004
512.76
469.94
569.19
12,749
17,148
1,452
729.94
150,573
145.06
13,604
2005
538.84
498.41
650.44
13,584
18,509
1,615
745.76
156,580
153.21
13,766
2006
709.15
616.33
851.53
17,831
24,947
2,304
989.42
216,371
199.59
17,903
2007
793.96
694.64
960.33
18,409
27,291
2,682
999.50
241,287
209.06
17,647
2008
958.98
783.61
1,112.17
20,865
30,119
2,926
1,194.43
319,257
226.40
21,361
2009
1,072.82
893.70
1,337.79
24,437
33,831
2,980
1,403.23
339,381
250.41
24,072
2010
1,329.28
1,148.51
1,542.56
31,925
38,003
3,540
1,469.46
357,836
301.44
25,808
2011
1,653.99
1,388.22
1,994.45
37,969
56,897
4,142
1,628.75
436,852
350.89
30,953
2012
1,720.86
1,587.87
1,847.45
42,579
57,106
4,412
1,691.00
494,183
354.31
35,057
2013
1,434.10
1,211.32
1,721.20
34,409
48,945
4,534
1,486.56
460,293
284.74
31,172
2014
1,266.40
1,142.00
1,385.00
30,638
37,202
4,298
1,402.94
440,561
250.82
28,278
APPENDICES
* Prior to 1999 Deutsche Mark prices have been converted into euros at the official conversion rate
102
6,131
Jul 424.75 424.48 432.60 418.35 11,340 17,669 1,528 564.06 91,523 242.44 6,060
Aug 437.77 437.93 447.25 430.65 11,450 17,784 1,557 574.87 91,008 244.07 6,258
Sep 455.94 456.05 473.25 439.60 11,976 18,561 1,630 595.78 93,289 252.36 6,533
Oct 470.11 469.90 475.50 462.85 12,568 19,458 1,735 623.53 99,476 266.40 6,874
Nov 476.67 476.67 496.00 456.50 13,010 20,103 1,816 648.36 101,938 274.98
Dec 509.42 510.10 536.50 489.00 13,829 21,396
7,131
7,588
Quarterly Average
Q1
427.40
427.35
10,481
16,237
1,436
549.55
82,536
226.02
6,174
Q2
427.57
427.39
10,926
16,866
1,478
556.08
88,229
230.45
6,101
Q3
439.71
439.72
11,593
18,010
1,572
578.45
91,947
246.35
6,285
Q4
484.88
484.20
13,099
20,262
1,827
650.56
101,787
277.36
7,209
600
US$/oz
550
500
Chinese yuan
revalued by 2.1%
Dutch vote no
to EU constitution
French vote
no to EU
constitution
First Palestenian
election since 1996
Oil price
at record
high
Gold at 24-year
high
Rand
A$
350
Terrorist
attacks
on London
Bank of Korea to
diversify reserves
Iraqi election
Jan
Mar
Feb
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
Apr
May
Jun
Yen
Euro
450
400
Paris riots
begin
Jul
US$/oz
Katrina
strikes
the US
Gulf coast
Aug
APPENDICES
650
Bank of Portugal
reveals 10t of sales
over past month
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
103
Jul 633.09 633.71 663.25 605.70 16,060 25,203 2,357 842.14 144,470 343.54 9,568
Aug 631.56 632.59 654.40 613.40 15,873 25,040 2,356 828.74 141,141 333.90 9,546
Sep 600.15 598.19 637.75 573.60 15,113 23,889 2,252 791.84 143,017 317.15 8,975
Oct 586.65 585.78 608.50 560.75 14,931 23,741 2,235 777.19 143,957 312.32 8,704
Nov 626.83 627.83 646.70 614.10 15,662 24,938 2,367 812.79 146,267 328.37
9,141
Dec 629.51 629.79 648.75 614.00 15,319 24,423 2,368 801.36 142,593 320.77 9,132
Quarterly Average
Q1
554.13
554.07
14,811
23,099
2,082
750.31
109,607
316.22
8,002
Q2
629.17
627.71
16,028
25,052
2,304
839.34
130,680
342.85
9,294
Q3
621.76
621.67
15,685
24,716
2,322
821.03
142,849
331.57
9,361
Q4
613.61
613.21
15,302
24,363
2,320
796.77
144,410
320.46
9,015
APPENDICES
800
750
Iran removes UN
seals at the Natanz
uranium plant
US$/oz
700
650
Hamas wins
Palestinian
elections
Silver ETF
starts trading
Gold at
26-year
high
Rand
600
Oil price at
17-month low
450
US$/oz
Israel attacks
Lebanon
BT pension fund to invest
3% in commodities
Jan
Mar
Feb
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
104
Yen
A$
550
500
Banco de Portugal
reveals 20 tonnes sale
N. Korea conducts
first nuclear test
N. Korea
missile test
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Euro
Israel-Hezbollah
conflict
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
8,713
Jul 665.27 665.30 684.30 648.75 15,587 25,828 2,598 767.08 149,158 327.08 8,755
Aug 664.53 665.41 675.50 657.50 15,704 25,728 2,497 803.62 154,562 330.97 8,824
Sep 710.65 712.65 743.00 672.00 16,471 27,158 2,636 841.85 162,798 352.92 9,322
Oct 754.48 754.60 789.50 725.50 17,049 28,490
Nov 808.31 806.25 841.10 778.85 17,663 29,119 2,875 900.72 174,059 389.36 10,341
Dec 803.62 803.20 833.75 784.25 17,729 29,422 2,900 920.81 176,124 397.28 10,291
Quarterly Average
Q1
649.99
649.82
15,941
25,767
2,494
826.46
151,320
332.43
9,314
Q2
667.62
666.84
15,896
26,198
2,590
801.47
152,069
335.67
8,975
Q3
679.19
680.13
15,903
26,209
2,575
803.00
155,278
336.49
8,950
Q4
787.57
786.25
17,453
28,969
2,858
883.45
170,915
383.95
10,107
US$/oz
800
Cut in Fed
Funds rate,
basis points
SNB announces
plan to sell 250t
over CBGA year
Dollar weakens
on lower than
expected US
trade report
Turkish troops
cross into
US$/oz
Iraq
Newcrest reveals
2.3 Moz hedge
book cut
Slump in
bond markets
50
News emerges of
prospective Iranian
and US talks
Yen
Rand
700
Euro
Benazir Bhutto
assassinated
A$
Euro
600
500
Iran detains
UK personnel
Global stock
markets fall
Jan
Mar
Feb
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
Novartis pension
fund reveals 4%
move into
Lihir buyback
commodities
revealed
Apr
May
Jun
Turkish forces
occupy Iraqi
village
25
25
Jul
APPENDICES
900
Aug
Sep
Oct
Gold price at
27-year high
Nov
Dec
105
1,023.50 1,011.25
21,390
33,263
3,313
Minimum
17,015
26,398
2,134
692.50
712.50
1,374 276,780
908
185,415
607.45
14,105
418.08
10,650
Range: Average
37.9%
34.3%
22.9%
22.7%
40.6%
45.1%
39.8%
40.2%
28.2%
Monthly Average
Jan
887.78
889.60
924.50
846.75
19,432
31,471
Feb
924.28
Mar
971.06
922.30
971.50
887.50
20,103
32,320
968.43
1,011.25
925.75 20,048
31,514
Apr
911.60
909.70
946.00
871.00
18,565
May
889.13
Jun
889.54
888.66
927.50 853.00
18,374
29,851
889.49
930.25
18,381
29,665
862.25
29,649
451.79
11,284
11,886
227,169
469.63
483.51
12,618
3,002
11,829
977.78
227,189
459.16
2,981
936.24
217,581
452.26
12,165
3,057
935.20 227,087
452.14
12,356
Jul
941.17
939.77
986.00
897.50
19,171
31,049
3,228
976.57 230,081
472.39
13,026
Aug
840.39
839.03
912.50
786.50
18,009
29,190
2,948
950.22 206,526
444.29
11,858
Sep
824.92
829.93
905.00
740.75
18,581
29,588
2,845
1,014.19
214,901
461.11
12,211
Oct
812.82
806.62
903.50
712.50
19,498
29,610
2,600
1,176.83 251,530
476.78
12,768
Nov
757.85
760.86
822.50
713.50
19,204
29,138
2,369
1,157.99 247,689
497.72
12,157
Dec
819.94
816.09
880.25
749.00
19,531
30,131
547.45
12,884
Quarterly Average
Q1
925.67
924.83
19,848
31,772
3,131
1,021.19
224,187
467.55
11,912
Q2
897.11
896.29
18,443
29,718
3,014
950.40
224,105
454.63
12,114
Q3
870.81
871.60
18,613
29,983
3,012
981.19
217,695
459.93
12,389
Q4
797.98
794.76
19,413
29,618
2,463
1,183.57
253,457
505.19
12,611
APPENDICES
1300
South
African
power
crisis
1200
1100
Dollar at record
low against euro
US$/oz
Israeli/Gaza
conflict
begins
50
Bailout
of AIG
Rand
A$
1000
US$/oz
Euro
75
900
800
700
600
500
75
50
75
25
Cut in Fed
Funds rate,
basis points
Jan
Feb
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
106
Collapse of
Washington
Mutual
Gold at
record high
Mar
Apr
May
Oil price at
record high
BT Pension Fund
invests 350m
into commodities
Jun
Jul
Yen
50
Collapse
of Lehman Brothers
Aug
Sep
Oct
US interest
rates at
historic low
Nov
Dec
972.35
22,409
33,834
621.07
15,233
Maximum
1,218.25 1,212.50
973.66
25,857
38,963
729.97
18,220
Minimum
19,910
29,318
2,337
552.67
12,905
813.00
810.00
1,126.74
232,031
Range: Average 41.6% 41.4% 26.5% 28.5% 37.9% 33.8% 35.4% 28.5% 34.9%
Monthly Average
Jan
857.73
858.69
919.50
810.00
20,873
31,146
593.75
13,490
14,777
Feb
939.76
943.16
989.00 895.00
23,711
35,327
654.60
Mar
925.99
924.27
956.50
893.25
22,786
34,341
651.12
15,241
Apr
892.66
890.20
924.50
870.25
21,701
32,871
604.96
14,481
May
926.86
928.64
975.50 884.50
21,858
33,029
2,882
1,212.81 250,402
600.96
14,606
Jun
947.81
945.67
981.75 920.60
21,699
32,879
2,940
1,178.77 244,502
577.62
14,639
Jul
934.27
934.23
955.00 908.50
21,329
32,417
570.28
14,722
Aug
949.50
949.38
964.00
21,402
32,626
2,900 1,136.98
573.97
14,968
Sep
996.44
932.75
242,761
21,997
33,322
611.05
15,730
22,625
34,257
644.18
15,859
Nov
1,126.12
1,127.04
1,182.75 1,061.00
24,287
36,683
3,229 1,225.26
271,867
678.62
17,057
Dec
1,135.01
24,938
37,506
696.85
17,150
Quarterly Average
Q1
907.61
908.41
22,442
633.10
14,467
Q2
923.20
922.18
21,749
593.86
14,577
Q3
960.00 960.00
21,577
585.21
15,125
Q4 1,100.64 1,099.63
23,897
672.38
16,712
1200
China reveals a
454-tonne increase
in its gold reserves
ECB cuts
interest
rate by 50
basis points
1100
US consumer
prices fall most
since 1955
Germany, Japan
and France
exit recession
Yen
Euro
US$/oz
1000
Rand
900
800
APPENDICES
1300
Suspension of
IMF approves gold
Dubai World
sales of 403.3 tonnes
debt repayment
India buys
200 tonnes of
Barrick announces
gold from IMF
the closure of all
US$/oz
gold hedges
Record inflows
into ETFs
700
A$
FOMC
begins debt
monetisation
600
US unemployment
at 26-year high
New CBGA
announced
500
Jan
Feb
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
107
1,226.66 1,224.52
29,739
790.98
18,304
Maximum
1,426.00 1,421.00
34,573
911.35
20,780
Minimum
1,052.25 1,058.00
24,668
36,291 3,040.31
668.89
16,055
1,197.71 258,374
Range: Average 30.5% 29.6% 33.3% 24.0% 21.8% 24.5% 19.9% 30.7% 25.8%
Monthly Average
Jan
1,119.58
25,185
37,150
3,276 1,223.52
267,977
691.54
16,704
25,747
37,735
701.11
16,531
Mar
26,376
38,152
739.05
16,604
27,532
39,468
3,452
1,239.14 271,686
748.31
16,682
30,982
43,926
824.96
18,084
32,447
44,630
836.15
18,732
40,384
3,356 1,362.26
289,175
779.94
18,287
30,294
40,631
776.53
18,493
31,214
40,890
816.11
19,087
31,040
41,777
846.21
19,481
Nov
32,278
43,371
3,635 1,384.60
307,132
858.71
20,134
33,827
43,370
890.93
20,508
Quarterly Average
Q1
1,110.56 1,109.12
25,798
711.92
16,615
Q2
1,196.13 1,196.74
30,369
17,826
Q3
1,227.18 1,226.75
30,503
791.08
18,605
Q4 1,369.53 1,366.78
32,333
863.91 20,044
APPENDICES
1500
US$/oz
1400
1300
1200
Eurozone sovereign
debt crisis
1600
Euro
US$/oz
Yen
1000
FOMC announces
$600 billion QE2 package
900
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
Rand
A$
Earthquake
in Chile
1100
108
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1,573.16 1,571.52
36,355
981.23
Maximum
1,896.50 1,895.00
43,403
1,188.73
23,899
29,140
31,041
822.83
19,660
Range:Average
36.9%
36.7%
34.0%
28.3%
30.1%
32.0%
46.9%
37.3%
39.7%
Monthly Average
Jan 1,360.48 1,356.40 1,388.50 1,319.00
32,639
858.51
20,218
Feb
Mar
32,328
850.73
20,333
32,676
881.20
Apr
20,811
32,845
902.39
21,484
May
33,947
925.50
22,148
Jun
34,160
943.63
22,330
35,422
972.55
22,634
Aug
25,980
Sep
27,481
39,022
47,972 4,103.12
26,617
Nov
41,245
28,526
Dec
40,292
28,096
Quarterly Average
Q1
1,386.69 1,386.27
32,552
864.32
19,660
Q2
1,506.80 1,506.13
33,687
924.27
20,745
Q3
1,704.96 1,702.12
38,798
21,585
Q4
1,686.85 1,688.01
40,199
25,915
2200
Bond sales by
Italy and Spain
APPENDICES
2500
Italian P.M Berlusconi
resigns
Fed announces
Operation Twist
Rand
US$/oz
1900
Political tension in
MENA
Greek government
passes austerity cuts
A$
US$/oz
Euro
1600
Yen
1300
1000
Earthquake strikes
north-east Japan
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
109
1,668.86 1,668.98
41,746
29,730
Maximum
1,790.00
1,791.75
44,579
53,903
4,796.72
1,752.28
506,902
1,129.33
32,640
Minimum
1,537.50
1,540.00
39,070
46,910
3,915.92
1,515.75
402,726
968.55
27,385
Range:Average 15.1% 15.1% 13.2% 13.9% 20.6% 14.7% 23.7% 15.3% 17.7%
Monthly Average
Jan 1,656.10 1,656.12 1,744.00 1,598.00 41,248 49,900 4,095.16 1,589.43 424,960 1,066.94
27,713
28,247
27,979
40,731
Apr 1,648.54 1,650.07 1,677.50 1,621.00 40,285 48,410 4,309.32 1,593.70 415,184 1,030.25 28,750
May 1,585.11 1,585.50 1,664.00 1,540.00 39,905
997.59 28,909
Jun 1,595.63 1,596.70 1,635.00 1,558.50 40,892 49,092 4,076.66 1,594.54 429,451 1,025.09 29,951
Jul 1,592.78 1,593.91 1,622.00 1,556.25
41,694
Aug 1,625.68 1,626.03 1,668.00 1,597.00 42,165 50,625 4,112.08 1,553.29 431,751 1,034.77 30,298
Sep 1,741.93 1,744.45 1,784.50 1,690.00 43,569 52,663 4,382.48 1,678.17 462,742 1,082.66
31,779
Oct 1,746.35 1,747.01 1,791.75 1,706.50 43,313 52,377 4,436.01 1,698.01 485,553 1,087.08
31,156
43,109
31,728
Quarterly Average
Q1
1,691.16
1,690.57
41,425
50,015
4,314.67
1,601.12
420,047
1,075.41
27,979
Q2 1,608.53 1,609.49 40,338 48,445 4,144.54 1,593.66 420,074 1,016.64 29,234
Q3 1,650.70 1,652.00 42,442 51,068 4,173.89 1,590.19 437,955 1,045.34 30,460
Q4
1,721.27
1,721.79
42,721
51,583
4,479.84
1,658.84
480,625
1,072.76
31,308
APPENDICES
2200
US$/oz
1900
1600
1300
Francois Hollande
elected as
French President
ECB launches
second round of LTRO
Greece bailout
funds approved
Yen
A$
US$/oz
Fed announces
QE4 package
Barack Obama re-elected
as US President
1000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
110
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1,409.51
1,411.23
34,195
42,073
4,411.51
1,454.85
433,957
903.74
29,314
Maximum
1,692.50 1,693.75
40,810
33,590
Minimum
1,192.75 1,192.00
28,056
730.00
25,270
37.6%
28.4%
Range:Average
35.5%
35.6%
37.3%
38.9%
28.4%
21.9%
26.1%
Monthly Average
Jan
40,383
30,691
Feb
39,230
48,203 4,872.23
30,091
39,513
Mar
1,591.01 1,592.86
1,613.75 1,574.00
29,658
Apr
36,643
44,689 4,675.82
1,431.18 433,109
970.01
27,823
May
35,024
924.77
26,883
Jun
32,690
866.11
27,359
Jul
1,212.75
31,590
847.23
27,040
Aug
1,345.05
32,526
869.02
30,339
Sep
32,467
850.14
30,566
Oct
1,314.40
31,027
417,523
818.05
30,755
Nov
30,394
417,534
791.95
30,864
Dec
28,752
407,174
748.53
30,172
35,191 4,071.12
1,363.12
Quarterly Average
Q1
1,632.51
1,631.77
39,731
30,173
Q2
1,416.08 1,414.80
34,820
921.17
27,355
Q3
1,324.67 1,326.28
32,176
855.21
29,166
Q4
1,273.26
30,152
789.03
30,617
1,276.16
1800
Sequester triggers
US spending cuts
Indian government
Q3 U.S. GDP climbed
Import duty in
raises import duty
2.8% annualised
India raised to 10%
to 8%
vs. expected 2.0%
EC suggests
Imports to India get
Cyprus sells
US government shuts
linked to volume of exports
US Fed reduces
400mn worth
down temporarily
US economy shows
bond buying
of gold
on budget impasse
better-than-expected
by $10 bn a month
housing data and
unemployment rate falls
US$/oz
1600
APPENDICES
2000
Rand
Yen
1400
1200
A$
US$/oz
Fed announces it could
start slowing asset
purchases by end-2013
1000
Jan
Mar
Feb
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
111
30,411
804.17 30,034
Apr 1,299.18 1,299.00 1,325.75 1,283.75 30,242 36,864 4,280.31 1,394.47 438,937 775.90 29,356
May 1,288.91 1,287.53 1,306.25 1,250.50 30,152 36,797 4,214.08 1,383.49 429,199 764.67 28,914
Jun 1,277.86 1,279.10 1,318.50 1,242.75 30,239 36,820 4,196.54 1,365.19 438,950 756.12 27,552
Jul 1,312.99 1,310.97 1,340.25 1,285.25
Aug 1,297.01 1,295.99 1,313.75 1,275.25 31,283 37,898 4,287.68 1,392.57 443,821
775.91 28,302
Sep 1,241.33 1,238.82 1,286.50 1,213.50 30,888 37,296 4,275.35 1,369.60 437,270 759.82 27,097
Oct 1,223.57 1,222.49 1,250.25 1,164.25 30,993 37,432 4,244.32 1,392.98 434,539 760.55 27,082
Nov 1,176.41 1,176.30 1,203.75 1,142.00 30,320 36,449 4,402.47 1,362.10 419,382 745.92
26,192
Dec 1,200.44 1,202.29 1,229.00 1,175.75 31,342 37,676 4,610.03 1,456.71 443,896 768.58 26,767
Quarterly Average
Mar
1,291.90
1,293.06
30,336
37,095
4,271.69
1,442.01
450,101
731.34
30,042
Jun
1,288.47
1,288.39
30,211
36,827
4,229.76
1,380.79
435,749
765.41
28,587
Sep
1,283.82
1,281.94
31,097
37,670
4,283.70
1,386.21
443,506
767.61
27,830
Dec
1,201.24
1,201.40
30,883
37,190
4,407.41
1,402.55
432,517
758.29
26,680
APPENDICES
1500
US November NFP
ECB cuts refinancing
rose by 321,000
rates to 0.05%
Indian festival
and overnight
deposits to -0.20% demand reaches
peak for the year
Yen
Euro
US$/oz
1300
1200
1100
1000
Rand
President Yanukovych
leaves Ukraine
US debt ceiling rises through to
March 2015, technical default averted
ISIS occupies Fallujah;
Ukraine crisis adds
to geopolitical risk.
Jan
Mar
Feb
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
112
A$
US$/oz
Argentina
India eases gold
defaults on
Malaysian
its debt
Russia threatens import rules
commercial airliner
military exercise
crashes in Ukraine
along Ukraine border
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
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