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A mathematical model for corruption

(some explanations from Islamic point of view)


Agus Yodi Gunawan
Maret 2012 M

Intro
Aims of the talk:
+ to give some feelings in constructing mathematical model
+ to derive and explain the existing corruption model from the Islamic point
of view
+ to play some parameter scenarios and make interpretations
The subject is taken from the book of Grass et al. (see References).
I myself did not derive the governing equations (except for some parts in the
extended model). However, I try to explain the derived model as simple as
possible for common public purposes.
Also, I try to relate the model into what Quran/Hadits quoted.

Mathematical Modelling

What do you see? And then?

What do you see? And then?

0 ....Nothing more than just clouds.

What do you see? And then?

0 ....Nothing more than just clouds.


0 ....Laten we naar buiten gaan!

What do you see? And then?

0 ....Nothing more than just clouds.


0 ....Laten we naar buiten gaan!
0 How I love to watch the clouds ;Peacefully, peacefully drifting by Silently
upon the breeze; They ease across the clear blue sky...etc. (by Craig
Nicholson,http:// poetry.wholesomebalance.com/Loving_Clouds.html)

What do you see? And then?

0 ....Nothing more than just clouds.


0 ....Laten we naar buiten gaan!
0 How I love to watch the clouds ;Peacefully, peacefully drifting by Silently
upon the breeze; They ease across the clear blue sky...etc. (by Craig
Nicholson,http:// poetry.wholesomebalance.com/Loving_Clouds.html)

0 AYG: It could be some mathematical problems in there. (Kelvin-Helmholtz


instability)

What is a mathematical modelling?


When mathematics is applied to real-life problems, a translation is needed
to put the subject into mathematically tractable form.

This process is usually referred to as mathematical modelling (the description of an experimentally verifiable phenomenon by means of the mathematical language).

The phenomenon to be described will be called the system, and the mathematics used, together with its interpretation in the context of the system,
will be called the mathematical model.

Two classes of quantities


In general mathematical models contain two classes of quantities:
1. variables :

dependent variables,
independent variables.
2. parameters:

constant, e.g. gravity acceleration,


adjusted parameter, e.g. temperature of chemical reactions.
For example,

N (t) = N (0)et.
Here, N(t) is the population of spider at time t, and is the growth rate.

Steps of modelling

1. Identify the problem (What exactly are you going to answer or solve?)
2. Make assumptions: classify the variables, hypothesizing relationships
among the variables.
3. Solve or interpret the model: analytical approach, or numerical analysis.
4. Verify the model (qualitatively or quantitatively).
5. Implement the model.
6. Maintain, generalize or refine the model.

Simplifying or refining the model


Model simplification
Restrict problem identification
Neglect variables
Conglomerate effects of several variables
Set some varibles to be constant
Assume simple (linear) relationships
Incorporate more assumptions

Model refinement
Expand the problem
Consider additional variables
Consider each variable in detail
Allow variation in the variables
Consider nonlinear relationships
Reduce the number of assumptions

Nature of models

To conclude,
- A model is a simplified representation of reality, not a perfect representation.
- ...dont be surprised! an intricate problem can lead to a simple model, or
the other way around.
- Some models are constructed in order to understand a certain phenomenon
(this is what we are talking now)

A Corruption Model

Selingan

QS 2: 183, Hai orang-orang yang beriman, diwajibkan atas kamu berpuasa


sebagaimana diwajibkan atas orang-orang sebelum kamu agar kamu bertakwa.

Selingan lagi

QS 2: 178, Hai orang-orang yang beriman, diwajibkan atas kamu qishaash


berkenaan dengan orang-orang yang dibunuh; orang merdeka dengan orang
merdeka, hamba dengan hamba, dan wanita dengan wanita.......dst
Qishaash ialah mengambil pembalasan yang sama. qishaash itu tidak dilakukan,
bila yang membunuh mendapat kemaafan dari ahli waris yang terbunuh Yaitu
dengan membayar diat (ganti rugi) yang wajar.

Problem
What is the problem?

Problem
What is the problem?

Corruption !

Problem
What is the problem?

Corruption !
What is the question?
.............
.............

Problem
What is the problem?

Corruption !
What is the question?
.............
.............

How to control it !

Background Knowledge
What
+ physical Laws, or
+ Mathematical postulates, or
+ principles of Legal Community, or
+ ...........etc
are involved?

Fact 1: berpasangan.

QS: 51:49,"dan segala sesuatu Kami ciptakan berpasang-pasangan supaya kamu


mengingat kebesaran Allah". Tafsir Ibnu Katsir:

So, There exists honest (good) and corrupt(bad) people.

Fact 2: cinta harta.

QS: 3:14,". dijadikan indah pada (pandangan) manusia kecintaan kepada apaapa yang diingini, Yaitu: wanita-wanita, anak-anak, harta yang banyak dari
jenis emas, perak, kuda pilihan, binatang-binatang ternak dan sawah ladang.....".
Umdatul Qaariy Bab ar-riqaq (syarah shahih Bukhariy):

So, financial could stimulate someone to corrupt.

Fact 3: Pertemanan.
"Sesungguhnya perumpamaan teman yang baik (shalihah) dan teman yang jahat
adalah seperti pembawa minyak wangi dan peniup api pandai besi. Pembawa
minyak wangi mungkin akan mencipratkan minyak wanginya itu atau engkau
membeli darinya atau engkau hanya akan mencium aroma harmznya itu. Sedangkan peniup api tukang besi mungkin akan membakar bajumu atau engkau akan
mencium darinya bau yang tidak sedap" (Riwayat Bukhari).
Almushohabatu tasyriqu at-thobiah (Pertemanan itu mencuri tabiat).
So, more corrupt people tends to increase corruption.

Assumptions
Community is divided into two groups: Honest and Corrupt people
("berpasangan").
Let x(t) be the proportion of people who are corrupt at time t; 1 x(t) is
the proportion of honest people.

Temptation to become corrupt is usually financial ("Cinta harta"). So the


incomes of corrupt people are assumed to be higher than those who are
honest, by some constant amount per unit of time: wc > wh .
Let us write w = wc wh > 0.

More corrupt people tends to increase corrupt population ("Pertemanan").


It must be a control ("Legal community, religious understanding"), i.e. a
formal corruption control program or anti-corruption efforts. Let u be a
parameter describing the sanction risk, could be dependent or independent
of time t.

Equation
Model:

dx

= k1wx(t) k2(u0 + u(t)),


dt

x(0) = x0.

Here, k1 and k2 are (dimensional) positive constants, u0 is the standard control


where the active control u(t) is not applied yet, and x0 > 0 is the initial corrupt
population.

Equation
Model:

dx

= k1wx(t) k2(u0 + u(t)),


dt

x(0) = x0.

Here, k1 and k2 are (dimensional) positive constants, u0 is the standard control


where the active control u(t) is not applied yet, and x0 > 0 is the initial corrupt
population.
b,
Equilibrium population. For t , x(t) x
b=
x

k2(u0 + u(t))
.
k1w

b 0. So, x
b = 0, when..............
Note that since k1 , k2 , w > 0 then x

Local analysis
b?
What happens if corrupt population x(t) is close to x
b.....
Intuitively?..........when corrupt population is a bit larger (lower) than x

Local analysis
b?
What happens if corrupt population x(t) is close to x
b.....
Intuitively?..........when corrupt population is a bit larger (lower) than x
b + y(t) where y(t)  1.
Write as x(t) = x

dy
b).
= k1w(x(t) x
dt
b, then dy/dt < 0, it means
When x(0) = x0 < x
b, then dy/dt > 0, it means
When x(0) = x0 > x

Local analysis
b?
What happens if corrupt population x(t) is close to x
b.....
Intuitively?..........when corrupt population is a bit larger (lower) than x
b + y(t) where y(t)  1.
Write as x(t) = x

dy
b).
= k1w(x(t) x
dt
b, then dy/dt < 0, it means the proportion of corrupt
When x(0) = x0 < x
people decreases.
b, then dy/dt > 0, it means the number of corrupt people
When x(0) = x0 > x
increases.
b is so called unstable.
Equilibrium x

Simulations: x(t) vs t
1.0

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0.0

3.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Top-left:u0 + u = 0, Top-right:0 < u0 + u < w, Bottom:u0 + u = w.

Interpretation
u0 + u = 0: No sanctions: u0 + u = 0. Only a society that is totally noncorrupt will remain honest, and even that is an unstable situation. Whenever corruption appears, x(t) > 0, corruption will increase exponentially
until everyone is corrupt.

0 < u0 + u < w: Medium sanctions. Depending on the actual proportion


b or decrease for
of corrupt people, corruption will increase for x(t) > x
b.
x(t) < x
u0 + u = w: High sanctions. The risk of sanctions exceeds the expected
profit for any given proportion x and corrupt people become honest. We
end up with a totally honest population regardless of the initial state. A
small fraction of honest people suffices to convert the whole population
into one that is entirely free of corruption.

Interpretation
u0 + u = 0: No sanctions: u0 + u = 0. Only a society that is totally noncorrupt will remain honest, and even that is an unstable situation. Whenever corruption appears, x(t) > 0, corruption will increase exponentially
until everyone is corrupt.

0 < u0 + u < w: Medium sanctions. Depending on the actual proportion


b or decrease for
of corrupt people, corruption will increase for x(t) > x
b.
x(t) < x
u0 + u = w: High sanctions. The risk of sanctions exceeds the expected
profit for any given proportion x and corrupt people become honest. We
end up with a totally honest population regardless of the initial state. A
small fraction of honest people suffices to convert the whole population
into one that is entirely free of corruption.
AlMaaidah 38: laki-laki yang mencuri dan perempuan yang mencuri, potonglah
tangan keduanya (sebagai) pembalasan bagi apa yang mereka kerjakan dan sebagai siksaan dari Allah. dan Allah Maha Perkasa lagi Maha Bijaksana.

Extended model
"Taushiyah": an interaction between honest and corrupt people.
Model:

dx

= k1wx(t)(1 x(t)) k2(u0 + u(t)),


dt

x(0) = x0.

b,
Equilibrium population. For t , x(t) x

1 D
1+ D
b =
b+ =
x
and x
.
2
2

where D = 1

4k2(u0 + u(t))
..
k1w

Simulations: x(t) vs t
1.2

1.2

1.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.0
0

20

40

60

80

0.0
0

20

40

60

80

0.0
0

20

40

60

80

Mild/Medium Taushiyah:

Left: it is still effective when a small group of corrupt people is just at the
b ).
onset to grow (when x(0) < x
Middle: it is still useful even when a medium group of corrupt people was
already present, at least some people can be saved not being corrupt (when
b < x(0) < x
b+ ).
x

Right: When all (or almost) are initially corrupt, medium taushiyah is still
useful to stop some for being corrupt, but not so effective (when x(0) >
b+ ).
x

Can we do something more?


What is the idea?

Can we do something more?


What is the idea?

b = x
b+ ?
when x

4k2(u0 + u(t))
1 D
b =
, where D = 1
.
Remember x
2
k1w
1.0

D>0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
0.0

0.2

0.4

k1

0.6

0.8

1.0

b = x
b+ , then D = 0. Say, we know w (salary). If we start with the red
If x
box, then we must go back so that we arrive at the black box. What does it
mean?

Can we do something more?


What is the idea?

b = x
b+ ?
when x

b =
Remember x

1 D
4k2(u0 + u(t))
, where D = 1
.
2
k1w
1.0

D>0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
0.0

0.2

0.4

k1

0.6

0.8

1.0

b = x
b+ , then D = 0. Say, we know w (salary). If we start with the red
If x
box, then we must go back so that we arrive at the black box. What does it
mean?
Reducing k1 Intensive taushiyah.

Simulations: x(t) vs t
Comparison:
1.2

1.2

D>0

1.0

1.0

D=0

medium

0.8

0.8

Intensive

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.0

20

40

60

0.0

80

20

40

1.2

D<0
Most intensive
with high sanction
(alMaaidah 38)

1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0

20

40

60

80

60

80

Summary
, What I called as a toy model is the model that may give some insights to
understand our phenomena qualitatively.
, There may be other models than this that you can derive and translate it to
your own words.
, Religious (Islam) understanding must be enhanced (as self-control).
, Taushiyah is our (moslem) obligation.
, to close this topic, QS 2:179:
"Dan dalam qishash itu ada (jaminan kelangsungan) hidup bagimu, hai orang-orang yang berakal (Ulul alBaab), supaya kamu
bertakwa".

References
0 F.R. Giordano, M.D. Weir, W.P. Fox, A first course in Mathematical modelling, Thomson-Brooks/Cole, 2003.
0 R. M. M. Mattheij, J. Molenaar, Ordinary differential equations in theory
and practice (Chapt. XII), SIAM, 2002.
0 R. M. M. Mattheij, S.W. Rienstra, J. H. M. ten Thije Boonkkamp, Partial
Differentia Equations: Modeling, Analysis, Computation, SIAM, 2005.
0 D. Grass, J. P. Caulkins, G. Feichtinger, G. Tragler, D. A. Behrens, Optimal
Control of Nonlinear Processes With Applications in Drugs, Corruption
and Terror, Springer, 2008.
0 Free software: Quran, Shahih Bukhari.