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Background Briefing:

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

South China Sea: Chinese


Aircraft Intercept U.S. Maritime
Patrol Aircraft
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 19, 2016
[client name deleted]
The Pentagon has accused China of conducting an unsafe intercept of a US spy
plane.
Q1, What is your assessment of this situation?
ANSWER: Chinese defence officials often say if you do 1 we will do 1.5 if you do 2
we will do 2.5. China is reacting badly to at least three recent U.S. actions: the
recent transit of a U.S. aircraft carrier through the South China, the flight of U.S.
ground attack aircraft from the Philippines to the area near Scarborough Shoal and
the U.S. third freedom of navigational operational patrol. It is interesting to note that
the Pentagons annual report to Congress on Military And Security Developments
Involving the Peoples Republic of China 2016 noted that military to military
encounters with China are more professional and incidents decreased in the past
year. The report was released on April 26.. China has obviously reverted to its old
ways to show displeasure as the U.S. push back.
Q2, President Barack Obama is scheduled to visit Vietnam., In addition to the
Philippines lawsuit against China, how does this recent incident between US and
Chinaese planes affect tensions in the South China Sea?
ANSWER: Tensions will rise in the South China Sea when China refuses to comply
with the Arbitral Tribunals ruling on the Philippines case against China. China is now
orchestrating an international propaganda campaign to denigrate the Arbitral
Tribunal. At the same time, according to Australian intelligence agencies, China had
planned to take decisive and provocative action in response to the Arbitral
Tribunal. It was thought that China might begin construction work on Scarborough
Shoal. No doubt the United States applied strong behind the scenes diplomatic
pressure on China not to proceed. This was followed up by displays of U.S. military
might. The recent air incident indicates that China is raising the stakes and trying to
bluff the Obama Administration into stepping down.
Q3, What do you think about prospects of an end to the US embargo on arms sales
to Vietnam during President Obamas visit?
ANSWER: This is a decision that President Obama will make. I am inclined to say that
Obama will lift the embargo to overcome one legacy left by history. Recall his

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initiatives towards Iran and Cuba. Relations with Vietnam are more advanced. Lifting
the embargo is not just related to human rights, but to Vietnams willingness to step
up defence cooperation with the United States. This could include lifting the ban on
one naval ship visit per country each year.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, South China Sea: Chinese Aircraft Intercept
U.S. Maritime Patrol Aircraft, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 19, 2016.
All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove
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Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

Thayer Consultancy

Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

South China Sea: Third U.S.


Freedom of Navigation Patrol
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 17, 2016
[client name deleted]
1 - Why has the US chosen this moment of time to make the Freedom of Navigation
patrol? How is it different from previous freedom of navigation operations? Will the
increased scope of freedom of navigations patrols make China changes its actions in
the South China Sea?
ANSWER: The conduct of the third freedom of navigational operational patrol
(FONOP) by the destroyer USS William P. Lawrence at this time was surprising
because US official announced that the third patrol had been suspended. There are
two likely explanations. First, the suspension of the third patrol provoked some
criticism of the Obama Administration by Congressmen and the decision was
changed in response to this pressure. Second, US senior military officials have been
warning that China was about to take some action at Scarborough Shoal. The third
FONOP was approved to send another signal to Beijing to step back. These two
explanations may have reinforced each other. Fiery Cross Reef is the operational
forward headquarters for Chinese forces in the Spratly islands.
2 - Do you think that Washington has new information on China's activity in Spratly
Islands, for example an increase in construction or the introduction of new military
equipment, that led it to conduct this freedom of navigation patrol?
ANSWER: Leaked reports in the English-language media in Washington and in
Canberra indicate that China was preparing to take decisive and provocative action
to show its displeasure at the forthcoming decision by the UN Arbitral Tribunal. The
US was concerned specifically about surveying activity near Scarborough Shoal. The
US and Australia also took note of the visit by General Fan Changlong, Chinas
highest ranking military commander. The last time this occurred in 2014 China began
constructing its artificial islands. The US has stepped up pressure on the Chinese by
flying ground attack aircraft from the Philippines near Scarborough Shoal. This was
designed to deter China. If China had brought in any new offensive weaponry in the
the Spratlys the US would have made this public.
3 - China's two fighter jets were scrambled and three warships shadowed the U.S.
ship, telling it to leave. What is your comment on China's action compared to earlier
responses? Will Beijing's determination make other countries accept new status quo
in South China Sea?

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ANSWER: China has always shadowed US warships in the South China Sea regardless
whether they just sailing through or conducting FONOP. US officials say the Chinese
are behaving more professionally by not conducting dangerous encounters. Chinas
actions are all part of the game. In all incidents Chinese propaganda has claimed
falsely that they drove the US out of the area. This sort of action is the new normal
between the two militaries. Much of Chinese reaction is just for show and domestic
propaganda.
In reality no actions by ASEAN, individual claimant states or the US have dissuaded
China from continuing to consolidate its presence in the Spratly Islands. Beijing has
launched a diplomatic offensive to secure the political endorsement of many small
states behind its position that outside powers should not get involved in South China
Sea disputes. At the moment, China has gotten away with building artificial islands
and interfering with the movement of Philippines military ships and aircraft as well
as fishermen. The real test will come when the Arbitral Tribunal hands down its
decision. In one sense the countries in the region have accepted the new status quo
because China has succeeded in building seven artificial islands despite expressions
of serious concern by ASEAN members. The real test will be whether Indonesia,
Malaysia and other countries accept Chinas rejection of international law.
4 On May 10, Daniel Russel, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, speaking in
Hanoi, repeated the words "serious tension" in South China Sea; Russel stressed that
many countries have deep concerns over China's reclamation. Is this is an indication
that President Obama is going to make an important announcement on the South
China Sea when he visits Vietnam later this month?
ANSWER: President Obama and his counterpart President Tran Dai Quang are likely
to issue a statement that sets out their serious concerns over tensions in the South
China Sea. This is only a repetition of what ASEAN leaders and ASEAN-US leaders
have already stated. President Obama will argue that international law must be
respected; he will offer further assistance to Vietnam to improve its capacity for
maritime security.
5 - Has tension in the South China Sea gotten worse in the last six monthsWhy and
why not?
ANSWER: Tensions will rise markedly once the Arbitral Tribunal makes its decision.
China will reject it completely and may do something provocative to demonstrate
that international law cannot constrain its actions. The US will lead the international
community in condemning China for its actions. China is opportunistic and will play
on the uncertainties in the Philippines and the United States over leadership
transitions. Many analysts feel China will act before Obama leaves office, otherwise
Chinese actions would be viewed as a direct challenge to a new American president
that cannot be ignored. This could provoke a confrontation.
6 - Do you believe that the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) will make a
judgement which benefits the Philippines in its case? Will the Philippines' new
president adopt a hard line with China on maritime disputes?
ANSWER: The PCA is likely to make a decision favourable to the Philippines on the
status of the Chinese-occupied features, indicating that some are low tide elevations

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and others are rocks. It is likely the Arbitral Tribunal will give a mixed decision and
thus leave many issues to be settled. This could open the door for renewed
discussions between Beijing and Manila. The new Philippine president has indicated
that he will defend Philippine sovereignty but also seek to improve economic
relations with China. China will still reject the Tribunals finding but may moderate its
behaviour to engage with President Duterte. Duterte is not likely to be as proAmerican as President Aquino and China will want to exploit this.
7 - Is that possible that Laos, as ASEAN Cahir for this year, will maintain ASEAN's
consensus on the South China Sea issue? Has China been successful in winning the
support of Laos, Cambodia and Brunei?
ANSWER: Laos will maintain ASEANs consensus on the South China Sea because it
has already been agreed and stated many times last year. But Laos is unlikely to be
proactive on this question. The real issue is can ASEAN form a consensus on how to
respond if China rejects the decisions of the Arbitral Tribunal? China argued that it
had reached consensus with Brunei, Cambodia and Laos on the South China Sea but
it appears China has distorted what these countries agreed to. Spokespersons in
Vientiane and Phnom Penh have denied agreeing to what China media has reported.
Unfortunately Indonesia is under a new leadership and there is no Foreign Minister
like Marty Natalegawa to step in to restore ASEAN unity.
8 What are the implications for Vietnam?
ANSWER: Vietnam will have to intensify its diplomacy among ASEAN members to get
a united front on the South China Sea especially after the Arbitral Tribunal makes its
decision. ASEAN should insist that China comply with the decisions of the Arbitral
Tribunal. Vietnam should make sure that its relations with the Philippines remain as
close under the new President as they have been under President Aquino.
Vietnam should study the decisions of the Arbitral Tribunal with great care and
decide if it should take legal actions in areas where its interests are affected.
Vietnam should extend its defence diplomacy with friendly states to include
discussions on the experiences of other countries that have a submarine force.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, South China Sea: Third U.S. Freedom of
Navigation Patrol, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 17, 2016. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

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