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Shell................................................................................................................. 2
UQ.................................................................................................................... 6
UQGeneral................................................................................................. 7
UQAT: Plastic Bag Bans.........................................................................11
UQAT: Recycling.................................................................................... 13
Link................................................................................................................ 15
LinkWaste/Ecological Consciousness.......................................................16
LinkAT: Plan just > cleanup......................................................................19
LinkAT: Recycling Turn.............................................................................. 20
IMPACT........................................................................................................... 22
ImpactEconomy....................................................................................... 23
Plastics k2 Economy................................................................................24
UQEconomy High now..........................................................................27
ImpactAerospace..................................................................................... 29
Aerospace Module.................................................................................... 30
Plastics k2 Aerospace.............................................................................. 33
Aerospace k2 Heg.................................................................................... 37
Heg Impact Extension.............................................................................. 40
(Impact) UQAersospace high................................................................46
AT: N/UHeg Decline Inev.......................................................................47
AT: N/UHeg Decline bc entitlements.....................................................49
AT: Ceramics key...................................................................................... 55
ImpactVTL................................................................................................ 57
ImpactTurn Case...................................................................................... 58
Plastics reduce waste............................................................................... 59
Plastics decr emissions/incr energy efficiency.........................................61
Aff Answers.................................................................................................... 63
N/UQ........................................................................................................... 64
AT: Link........................................................................................................ 66
AT: ImpactEconomy.................................................................................. 70
N/UQEconomy....................................................................................... 71
AT: ImpactAerospace................................................................................ 73
N/UQ: Aerospace Declining......................................................................74
N/U: Heg Low........................................................................................... 76
AT: Heg Impact......................................................................................... 78
AT: North Korea Impact............................................................................ 83
AT: Russia Impact..................................................................................... 84
AT: Terrorism Impact................................................................................. 86
AT: Iran..................................................................................................... 89
AT: Turn Case............................................................................................... 90
AT: Plastics GoodSaves Energy.............................................................91
AT: Plastics GoodRecycling....................................................................92

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Shell
US plastic industry is on a robust upturn and demand is
increasing
American Chemistry Council 14 (American Chemistry Council
http://www.americanchemistry.com/Jobs/EconomicStatistics/PlasticsStatistics/Year-in-Review.pdf)
The United States plastics resins industry continued its growth
trend in 2013. According to the American Chemistry Council (ACC) Plastics Industry Producers

Statistics (PIPS) Group, U.S. resin production increased 1.5 percent to 107.5 billion pounds in 2013, up
from 105.9 billion pounds in 2012. Total sales for the year increased 1.5 percent to 108.7 billion pounds
in 2013, up from 107.0 billion pounds in 2012. The Economic Environment The global
economic environment has remained challenging, preventing the U.S. from escaping its persistently
slow growth pattern. Business and consumer confidence was still wavering in 2013, putting a damper
on investment growth and hiring as well as consumer spending. There was general weakness in
manufacturing, cuts in U.S. federal spending, periods of uncertainty, and softness in demand at home
and abroad. As a result, the U.S. economy grew only 1.9 percent in 2013. However, improvements are
emerging and the fundamentals are in place for moderate growth in the coming year. The U.S.
employment situation is steadily improving and recovery continues in the housing market. As incomes
and real earnings rise and household assets strengthen, American consumers will be better positioned to

Domestic demand will build, driving the U.S. economy and in

turn, bolstering global growth. Indeed, after just 2 percent growth in 2013, global
spend.

economic growth is set to expand and this will translate to acceleration in foreign demand for North

North American manufacturingand the chemical

and plastics industries in particularhas the stage set for robust
performance. North American producers, with access to abundant supplies of competitively
American plastics.

priced energy and feedstock, are presented with renewed opportunity. The U.S. manufacturing sector,
which represents the primary customer base for resins, is pulling out of a soft patch. Manufacturing
growth slowed in 2013 largely due to the federal government sequester and to weakness in major export
markets. However, the surge in unconventional oil and gas development is creating both demand side
(e.g., pipe mills, oilfield machinery) and supply-side (e.g., chemicals, fertilizers, direct iron reduction)

the enhanced competitive position with regard to feedstock costs

will support U.S. chemical industry production going forward, with
particular strength in plastic resins. Trends in Customer Industries
opportunities. Indeed,

Although the demand for plastics is ultimately tied to overall economic growth, plastic resins are used in a
variety of end-use markets. A discussion of performance in some of the most important end-use
markets for resins follows. Packaging is the largest market for plastic resins and historically,
packaging resin use has been correlated with real retail sales, i.e., retail sales adjusted for inflation.
According to data from the Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Labor Statistics, real retail sales grew
2.8 percent in 2013, following a similar 2.9 percent gain in 2012. Consumer spending appeared to be
accelerating towards the end of the year and this trend is expected to continue as the job market
recovers and household wealth advances. According to Statistics Canada, the Canadian retail sector
increased 2.5 percent in 2013 after a 2.5 percent gain in 2012. As a result, output of the North
American retail sector experienced a 2.8 percent gain in 2013. Packaging industry output for the region
expanded in 2013 after having contracted in 2012. americanchemistry.com 700 Second
St., NE | Washington, DC 20002 | (202) 249.7000 Building and construction represents an important
market for plastic resins. The housing market continues to recover in the U.S. and housing starts were
up 19 percent in 2013. While starts are still off 55 percent from their 2005 peak of 2.07 million units,
they have grown consistently for the last four years. In the U.S., housing starts increased from 783,000
units in 2012 to 931,000 units in 2013. Residential projects were the drivers for private construction
spending. Public and private non-residential construction spending both declined in 2013. In Canada,
housing starts fell 13 percent from 215,000 units in 2012 to 188,000 units in 2013. The Canadian
construction industry grew only marginally in 2013, reflecting a decline in residential construction
offset by growth in non-residential projects. Overall North American construction activity grew by 4.0
percent in 2013. Transportation is another significant market for plastic resins. Light vehicle sales

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continued to strengthen in the U.S., rising from 14.4 million units in 2012 to 15.5 million units in 2013.
Improvements in American incomes and the ability to take on more debt combined with pent-up
demand will encourage continuation of a positive trend in vehicle sales. Canadian light vehicle sales
also increased (from 1.72 million units in 2012 to 1.78 million units in 2013). According to the U.S.
Federal Reserve Board, production of motor vehicles and parts in the U.S. increased 6.8 percent in
2013. This increase follows strong growth in the several years since the Great Recession (production
increased 17.4 percent in 2012, 9.0 percent in 2011 and 32.7 percent in 2010). In Canada, production
of motor vehicles and parts fell in 2013 after a gain in 2012. Overall North American production of
motor vehicles and parts increased 5.6 percent in 2013. Another important plastics market is that
for electrical and electronics, much of which is centered in appliances. In the U.S. and in Canada, the
appliance industrys output volume grew 7.1 percent, marking the first positive year-over-year
comparison since 2004. This is a good sign and reflects recovery in the housing market that was finally
taking hold. Appliance production had moderated in recent years and, although its tied to the health of
housing, it also reflected some appliance production that has shifted to low-cost manufacturing
countries. Much of the production that has left the U.S. has gone to Mexico and resin suppliers in the
U.S. and Canada serve this nearby market. Production of both electronic products and other electrical
equipment increased in 2013, extending the trend of positive growth to four years. In 2013, production
of computers and electronic products in North America rose 2.9 percent while production of other
electrical equipment rose 4.6 percent. Furniture and furnishings represent a key market for
plastics. The North American furniture industry, also tied to the health of the housing market, grew 4.4
percent in 2013, marking the third year of consecutive growth. In the U.S., production in the furniture
industry increased 4.6 percent, and in Canada, output grew 2.6 percent. North American production of
carpeting and other textile furnishings contracted in 2013 after a small gain in 2012. The trend in these
markets should accelerate with the improvements in the housing market though this connection will
likely be more pronounced in furniture production. Industrial machinery represents another
important market, one aided by increased business investment needed to enhance competitiveness,
and to expand capacity, both in North America and in rapidly growing emerging markets. North
American production of industrial machinery rose 2.8 percent in 2013. Growth in this market has been
hampered as businesses continue to face uncertainty affecting their capital investment decisions.
The previous discussion examines the primary end-use markets which ultimately drive demand. The
plastics products industry (NAICS 3261) is the key immediate customer industry for plastic resins. In
turn, this industry supplies these important end-use markets. During 2013, North American plastics
products production rose 5.9 percent, reflecting improving demand among the end-use markets and the
competiveness of American producers. There have been improvements in trade flows as well. Following a
contraction in 2009, North American trade in plastic products recovered and has grown steadily.

Both imports and exports of plastic products and other finished goods
incorporating plastics resins continued to expand in 2013 and the pace of
growth in exports has surpassed that of imports. North American exports of
plastics products grew to $15.5 billion in 2013. The economic outlook for
the North American resins industry is quite optimistic. For the most part, demand from
domestic customer industries is strengthening and foreign demand
is expected to improve as well. This positive outlook is driven by the emergence of the
U.S. as the venue for chemicals investment. With the development of shale gas and the surge in
natural gas liquids supply, the U.S. moved ahead as a high-cost producer of key petrochemicals and
resins globally. This shift boosted export demand and drove significant flows of new capital investment
toward the U.S. As of early 2014, nearly 149 projects have been announced with investments totaling
more than $100 billion through 2023.

Aff crushes plastics industryIts profitability depends on

consumers remaining ignorant about the impacts of ocean
waste
Boyle 2011 [7/31 Lisa, environmental lawyer, Plastic And The Great
Recycling Swindle http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lisa-kaas-boyle/plasticsindustry-markets_b_912503.html]

Every day, disposable plastics (bottles, bags, packaging, utensils, etc.) are thrown away
in huge quantities after one use, but they will last virtually forever. Globally we make 300 million
tons of plastic waste each year. Disposable plastics are the largest component of ocean pollution. While
Fresh Kills Landfill in New York was once known as the planet's largest man-made structure, with a volume
greater than the Great Wall of China and a height exceeding the Statue of Liberty, our oceans are now
known to contain the world's largest dumps. These unintended landfills in our seas may cover millions of

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square miles and are composed of plastic waste fragments, circling the natural vortexes of the oceans like
plastic confetti being flushed in giant toilets.
Plastics are made from petroleum; there is less and less available, and we are going to tragic lengths to
get at it as evidenced in oil spills around the globe with loss of life and habitat. Should we be risking life
and limb for single use-bags and plastic bottles that can easily be replaced with sustainable alternatives?

Should we be risking our food chain as plastic fragments become more

plentiful than plankton in our oceans? Should we be exposing our fetuses, babies and

children to the endocrine disrupting chemicals that leach out of plastic food containers into our food and

These questions and their answers are exactly what the plastics lobby
wants you to avoid.
drink?

Plastic Industry Tactics: Aggression and Distraction

The Plastics Industry has been forced into a new position in order to preserve
its global market. It is no longer enough to pitch affordability and convenience of
their products when consumers are concerned about being poisoned by the chemicals in plastics and are
tired of seeing more plastic bags than flowers on the roadside.

Every legislative restriction on plastics defeated by the industry and every

consumer mollified into believing that using disposable plastics is a
sustainable practice means the continuation of enormous global profits for
industry. The petrochemical BPA, a hardening agent used in plastics that was developed first as a synthetic
estrogen, alone generates 6 billion dollars in sales for the American petrochemical industry. As preeminent
endocrine researcher Dr. Frederick Vom Saal observed: "If information [about toxics in plastic] had been
known at the time that this chemical was first put into commerce, it would not have been put into

industries have a huge stake

in maintaining their market share using this chemical, how do they now respond to evidence
commerce.... but because it already is in commerce, and chemical

that it really is not a chemical that you would want your baby to be exposed to? [The industry] is still in the
attack phase."

Plastics key to US economic growththe Green Chemistry

Industry revolution proves
Bienkowski 12

(Brian Staff Writer for Environmental Health News

http://www.environmentalhealthnews.org/ehs/news/2012/chemical-plastics-industry-driveseconomy July 24, 2012)

The chemical and plastics industry is a leading force in

economic growth that is helping U.S. cities bounce back from the recession, according to a new
study commissioned by the U.S. Conference of Mayors. The report paints a rosy picture of economic
growth and credits the manufacturing of plastics and chemicals with
spurring a surge in jobs, exports and research in many cities across the country. Behind the
CHICAGO, Ill.

industrys role as a growing economic force are rock-bottom natural gas prices, largely due to technologies
allowing extractors to tap into new reserves. Natural gas fuels most U.S. chemical processes. Chemical
companies are investing money into places as diverse as the Gulf of Mexico and Pittsburgh wherever the
gas is, according to the study conducted by IHS Global Insight, a Colorado-based industry analytics

2 to 4 percent job growth in the

chemical and plastics industry in some large cities including Minneapolis, Los
Angeles, San Diego, Dallas and Milwaukee from 2010 to 2011. Smaller metro areas such as
company that focuses on energy issues. The report cites

Warren, Mich., Spokane, Wash., Greeley, Colo., Gadsden, Ala., Janesville, Wis. and Alexandria, La., have
seen more than 10 percent growth in the industry's employment. However, some major cities, including
Chicago, New York and Philadelphia, had a small decrease, the study says. Robert Atkinson, president of
the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a non-partisan economic think tank in Washington,
D.C., said the chemical industry historically has been strong in the U.S. compared to other industries and
that this growth could continue to boost the economy. Chemicals are a stable industry ... partly because
you have higher fixed costs, you dont just walk away from a chemical plant, said Atkinson, who did not
participate in the study. The report, which was prepared for a mayors' conference held last week in
Philadelphia, predicts the U.S. economy will continue to improve through the end of 2012, anticipating job
growth of 1.4 percent and unemployment to fall to 8 percent. waltarrrrr/flickr Low natural gas prices have
driven new hiring at chemical companies. The metropolitan Chicago area has the highest employment in
chemical and plastics with 43,346 jobs, just above the Houston area at 42,834. Twenty-eight metropolitan
areas have more than 10,000 people working in the industry and 206 metro areas have more than 1,000,

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according to the report. Tracey Easthope, environmental health director at the Ecology Center in Ann
Arbor, Mich., said she hopes this trend will carry over into green chemistry, the design of chemicals and
industrial processes that are non-toxic and environmentally sound. While green chemistry is growing, its
still a relatively small proportion, Easthope said. As we keep increasing domestic manufacturing of
chemicals, its important that both the chemicals and production be more sustainable. The report did not
mention how much of the growth was green, but it is typically a drop in the bucket. According to a 2011
report by Pike Research, green chemistry was a $2.8 billion industry, compared with the $4-trillion global
chemical industry. In the U.S. alone, the chemical industry is a $760 billion enterprise, according to the

green chemical industry

would grow to $98.5 billion by 2020. Manufacturers of chemicals and plastics have
American Chemistry Council. The report, however, predicted the

been under fire recently, with scientists linking many high-volume synthetic compounds including flame
retardants, plasticizers such as bisphenol A and phthalates, pesticides and Teflon ingredients -- to a variety
of health threats. The chemical industry has been able to grow in recent years because natural gas prices
have dropped dramatically. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, natural gas was $1.89
per thousand cubic feet (not including transportation costs) in April 2012, down from $10.79 in July 2008.
The combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, known as fracking, led to the price drop, as
shale gas production grew 48 percent from 2006 to 2010, according to U.S. Department of Energy
estimates. And when the prices dropped, out came the businesses that rely on cheap energy. Four or five
years ago manufacturers were bemoaning the high prices of natural gas in the U.S., and they were going
elsewhere, Atkinson said. Now youre hearing something a lot different as the low natural gas prices are
driving their ability to be productive. At the same time, concerns over the environmental safety of
fracking are being raised across the nation. Dow operates a chemical plant in Midland, Mich. From worries
about water pollution in western Pennsylvania to cancer rate concerns in north Texas, many communities
have expressed unease with the nascent practice of injecting chemicals into the ground near drinking
water. Multiple towns have enacted moratoriums on fracking pending more research. Industry officials say
the practice is not a threat to drinking water and that natural gas burns much cleaner than coal. The cheap
natural gas also could reduce incentives for manufacturers to find replacements for fossil fuels. Cutting
energy use and switching to renewable resources when available are two of the principles of green
chemistry. But Easthope cited low natural gas prices as an opportunity for companies to develop
environmentally sustainable chemicals and plastics. This is a big chance to ramp up innovation, she said.
She said coupled with the lower costs of handling hazardous materials, this could make green chemicals
more competitive. Atkinson said the low natural gas prices are here to stay. This is a long-term, structural
change in our energy supply, he said. With these new technologies like horizontal drilling, theyre
bringing online a lot more natural gas than we ever thought was availableThese are not artificially low
prices. But Atkinson said its going to take more than just low energy prices to keep the chemical and

Its innovation thats going to sustain growth,

and theres a fair amount in those industries right now, he said. He said
plastics industry driving growth.

it's important to keep putting money into research, and to use the low energy costs to constantly reinvent

Atkinson pointed to plastics that conduct electricity as a

recent example of the industry pushing forward. Its not like theyre just
the industry.

cranking out a bunch of plastic bottles," he said.

Economic decline triggers nuclear war

Harris and Burrows 9

(Mathew, PhD European History at Cambridge, counselor in the National

Intelligence Council (NIC) and Jennifer, member of the NICs Long Range Analysis Unit Revisiting the
Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis
http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf)
Increased Potential for Global Conflict Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and indeed
believes the future is likely to be the result of a number of intersecting and interlocking forces. With so
many possible permutations of outcomes, each with ample Revisiting the Future opportunity for
unintended consequences, there is a growing sense of insecurity. Even so, history may be more instructive

the Great Depression is not likely to be repeated,

lessons to be drawn from that period include the harmful effects on fledgling
democracies and multiethnic societies (think Central Europe in 1920s and 1930s) and
than ever. While we continue to believe that
the

on the sustainability of multilateral institutions (think League of Nations in the same period). There is no
reason to think that this would not be true in the twenty-first as much as in the twentieth century. For that
reason, the ways in which

the potential for greater conflict could grow would seem

to be even more apt in a constantly volatile economic environment as they would be if

change would be steadier. In surveying those risks, the report stressed the likelihood that terrorism and
nonproliferation will remain priorities even as resource issues move up on the international agenda.
Terrorisms appeal will decline if economic growth continues in the Middle East and youth unemployment is
reduced. For those terrorist groups that remain active in 2025, however, the diffusion of technologies and
scientific knowledge will place some of the worlds most dangerous capabilities within their reach.

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Terrorist groups in 2025 will likely be a combination of descendants of long established groups
inheriting organizational structures, command and control processes, and training procedures necessary to
conduct sophisticated attacks and newly emergent collections of the angry and disenfranchised that

become self-radicalized, particularly in the absence of economic outlets that would become
narrower in an economic downturn. The most dangerous casualty of any
economically-induced drawdown of U.S. military presence would almost
certainly be the Middle East. Although Irans acquisition of nuclear weapons is not inevitable,
worries about a nuclear-armed Iran could lead states in the region to develop
new security arrangements with external powers, acquire additional weapons,
and consider pursuing their own nuclear ambitions. It is not clear that the type of stable
deterrent relationship that existed between the great powers for most of the Cold War would emerge

conflict and terrorism taking

could lead to an unintended escalation and broader
conflict if clear red lines between those states involved are not well established. The close
proximity of potential nuclear rivals combined with underdeveloped surveillance
capabilities and mobile dual-capable Iranian missile systems also will produce inherent
difficulties in achieving reliable indications and warning of an impending nuclear
naturally in the Middle East with a nuclear Iran. Episodes of low intensity
place \under a nuclear umbrella

attack. The lack of strategic depth in neighboring states like Israel, short warning and missile flight times,

uncertainty of Iranian intentions may place more focus on preemption

leading to escalating crises. 36 Types of conflict that
the world continues to experience, such as over resources, could reemerge,
particularly if protectionism grows and there is a resort to neo-mercantilist practices.
and

rather than defense, potentially

Perceptions of renewed energy scarcity will drive countries to take actions to assure their future access to
energy supplies. In the worst case, this could result in interstate conflicts if government leaders deem
assured access to energy resources, for example, to be essential for maintaining domestic stability and the
survival of their regime. Even actions short of war, however, will have important geopolitical implications.
Maritime security concerns are providing a rationale for naval buildups and modernization efforts, such as
Chinas and Indias development of blue water naval capabilities. If the fiscal stimulus focus for these
countries indeed turns inward, one of the most obvious funding targets may be military. Buildup of regional
naval capabilities could lead to increased tensions, rivalries, and counterbalancing moves, but it also will
create opportunities for multinational cooperation in protecting critical sea lanes. With water also
becoming scarcer in Asia and the Middle East, cooperation to manage changing water resources is likely to
be increasingly difficult both within and between states in a more dog-eat-dog world.

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UQ

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UQGeneral
US plastic industry is strong and demand is increasing
PR Web 14 (US Wood Plastic Composite Lumber Industry Demand to Grow
10% Annually to 2018 Says A New Research Report at
RnRMarketResearch.com http://www.prweb.com/releases/wood-plasticcomposite/plastic-lumber-to-2018/prweb11942522.htm)
US Demand to Jump More Than 10% Annually

US demand for wood-plastic composite and plastic lumber is

expected to increase more than 10 percent annually to $8.4 billion in 2018,
creating a market for nearly four billion pounds of plastic. A rebound in new housing
completions from the low 2013 level and gains in residential improvement and
repair expenditures will generate increases in demand. Demand gains will

also be boosted by increased market penetration in decking applications, the predominant use for
composite and plastic lumber.
Decking to Remain Key Application
Decking applications will account for more than two-fifths of composite and plastic lumber demand by
2018. Homeowners will increasingly choose decks made from alternative lumber because it has greater
resistance to degradation by moisture, changes in humidity, insect attack, and time, and because it
requires minimal maintenance over its long service life. Ongoing changes to manufacturing technologies
that will improve the color-fade resistance and the resemblance to natural wood, particularly expensive
hardwoods such as ipe and redwood, will further boost composite and plastic decking demand. Further
gains will result from efforts by manufacturers to increase the scope of decking accessories offered. Among
other applications, molding and trim applications are also expected to advance at a strong pace through
2018. Wood-plastic composite and plastic lumber use in molding and trim will benefit from renewed
housing activity and performance characteristics such as resistance to moisture and ease of shaping
that are superior to those of lumber and engineered wood .

Global Demand for plastics is increasing

EIA 14 (Sendich, Elizabeth, Global demand, inexpensive natural gas are
increasing domestic plastic production,
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=14891)

Low U.S. natural gas prices have helped increase domestic plastic
production after a decline from the 2008 recession. Because many U.S. plastic
manufacturers use natural gas as their primary fuel source and natural gas-sourced liquids as a feedstock,

continued low prices for those resources could boost raw plastic
exports, given higher foreign energy prices . The United States supplies raw

plastics, sometimes called resins, to domestic makers of plastic products, such as food packaging and toys.
Raw plastics are also exported. During the economic downturn in 2008 and 2009, U.S. production of plastic
products declined further than raw plastic production, and has been slower to recover.

Demand for

raw plastic from other parts of the world, such as China, remained strong,
keeping U.S. plastic resin production from falling further and
enabling it to recover faster. Given the inexpensive and versatile nature of polyethylene
and polypropylene plastics, demand for these plastics grew rapidly since the
late 1990s, both domestically and abroad. The plastics industry includes the

production of bulk plastic resin (often as pellets) as well as the production of plastic products that are sold
commercially, such as milk jugs and toys. Plastic resin production is one of the largest energy consumers in
the manufacturing sector, estimated to consume almost a quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2010 for
fuel and non-fuel uses, and providing nearly $84 billion of shipments in the U.S. economy in 2011. The
energy required to make plastics has decreased markedly since 2002, suggesting some efficiency

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improvements in plastic production, along with structural changes, such as new products or technological
advances.

Plastic industry strong now

PR Newswire 13 (Global and china plastic injection molding machine
industry report, 2013. (2013, Nov 20). PR Newswire Retrieved from
http://search.proquest.com/docview/1459724954?accountid=36295)
The annual output of injection molding machines in China, the
world's largest injection molding machine producer, hit roughly
100,000 sets. However, impacted by the weakening demand for auto and
household appliances downstream on the heels of slowdown in the growth of
Chinese economy, China's output of injection molding machines slowed down
in growth since 2011H2, and even witnessed negative growth in 2012.
Nevertheless, China injection molding machine market showed stable
momentum from 2013Q2, with the expected annual output growing
by around 2.5% over the preceding year. Meanwhile, China also boasts
a major trader of injection molding machines in the world. 2012 witnessed a
notable turning point in terms of trading in China injection molding machine
industry, with the export exceeding the import for the first time, and
with the trade surplus amounting to USD111.85 million. In 2013, the
trade surplus further expanded, with the value in the first eight
months hitting USD150.30 million. This came as the following two
aspects: firstly, more and more overseas manufacturers are
establishing injection molding machine works in China, fueling the
export of injection molding machines; secondly, China's sluggish
demand in recent two years caused the decline in import. Rather,
some of western economies are emerging from its doldrums, creating better
conditions for investment and generating import of injection molding
machines. The report emphasizes the production , sales, and import &
export of global and China injection molding machine industry, dwells on the
market breakdown of all-electric, all-hydraulic and two-plate models, and
highlights six international tycoons including Arburg, Sumitomo (SHI) Demag,
Engel and NISSEI Plastic Industrial as well as 14 domestic enterprises
including Haitian International Holdings Limited, The Chen Hsong Group, L.K.
Technology Holdings Limited, Cosmos Machinery Enterprises Limited, FU
CHUN SHIN Machinery Manufacture, Borch Machinery and Guangdong Yizumi
Precision Machinery. Arburg boasts the world's leading injection molding
machine producer which has established branches in Hong Kong, Shanghai
and Shenzhen. In particular, the Shanghai outlet is its focus in China,
providing mid to high-end products such as metal powder injection molding
machines, liquid silicone injection molding machines, and thermal plastic
injection molding machines in a modular approach. In Jul. 2013, Arburg set up
injection molding machine spot warehouse in Shanghai, in an aim to offer
better service for clients across Asia. Sumitomo (SHI) Demag has four
injection molding machine production bases located at Schwaig and
Wiehe of Germany, Japan and Ningbo of China. In Aug.2013, Demag
input EUR7 million in China earmarked for expanding the capacities

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of injection molding machines in the Ningbo base, with the targeted

capacities increasing from 650 sets to 1,000-3,000 sets. Haitian
International Holdings Limited, the world's largest injection molding
machine manufacturer, has set up distribution networks in China,
Germany, Brazil, Turkey, and Vietnam. In 2012, its output of injection
molding machines hit 22,000 sets, with the sales amounting to
RMB6.336 billion. In 2013, it planned to build the 12th and 13th branches
in Ningbo specializing in the production of all-electric and large-sized injection
molding machines, respectively. FU CHUN SHIN Machinery Manufacture, the
largest injection molding machine manufacturer in Taiwan, owns three
production bases in Ningbo, Dongguan and Taiwan, with the annual capacity
hitting 3,160 sets. In 2012, the revenue of the company claimed NTD1.654
billion, of which, NTD1.012 billion from injection molding machine business. In
Oct.2013, the company set a target to realize the revenue of NTD6 billion by
2018. In addition, it is poised to strength its commercial arm towards
overseas market through building one to two injection molding machine
production bases in Brazil and Indonesia in coming five years as well as three
to five self-support footholds in the Philippines and India.

Plastic Industry recovering now

Plastics News 14 (Wood, Bill, Plastic jobs continue their ever-so-gradual

recovery,
http://www.plasticsnews.com/article/20140423/OPINION02/140429950/plastic
s-jobs-continue-their-ever-so-gradual-recovery)

According to data that is compiled and reported every month by the

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the total number of jobs in the

plastics processing industry increased by 1.7 percent in 2013. This

followed annual increases of 1.6 percent in 2012 and 1.7 percent in
2011.

This sluggish, albeit steady, rate of job growth is comparable to the

slow, but steady pace of expansion in the overall U.S. economy during
the past three years.

The official statistics show that the total U.S. GDP has increased by
an average of about 2 percent per year over the past five years, and
this was enough economic growth to generate annual increases of
about 1.7 percent in the total number of jobs in the plastic sector
over the past three years.

Before I offer further analysis of this data, I should explain exactly what
is included in these numbers for the sake of clarity. First, the data being
reported by the BLS is for SIC 326 rubber and plastics products. The
fact that the rubber industry is included in SIC 326 data does not
significantly affect the trend in the data or the forecast as it pertains to
plastics processors, but it does increase the actual number of jobs in
the monthly data. Second, this data does not include persons involved
in manufacturing plastics resins, molds or machinery. Jobs in these
sectors are captured and reported in other SIC codes.
My forecast for 2014 calls for another increase of 1.7 percent in the
number of jobs for plastics processors. This is based on expectations

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of a continuation in the unspectacular, yet steady upward trend in the

overall economic data. I still expect the pace of growth in the economy
to accelerate moderately in the second half of this year with the
quarterly growth rates registering gains in excess of 3 percent. This
will likely be enough to push the annual gain in the GDP data to
somewhere between 2.5 percent and 3 percent for the year. But

because employment data lags the overall economic data, the growth
in the number of jobs in the plastic sector will not start to accelerate
until 2015.
The lackluster pace of growth in the processors jobs data this year will
be substantially slower than the gain in the production levels for the
industry. While the number of jobs has expanded by only 1.7 percent
per year during the last two years, production levels have increased
by 5 percent per year. We expect another increase of 5 percent in
output for plastics processors in 2014. The difference of roughly 3

percent between the gain in the number of employees and the overall
rise in production will be accomplished by raising productivity levels. In
order to compete in the global economy, the U.S. plastics industry has
had to become much more productive. Processors are much more
willing to invest in new, more productive machinery than they have
been in new employees.
This is really the most dramatic change in this industry in our
generation. As the chart above indicates, employment levels for
plastics processors peaked in 2000. The recession in 2001 started a
sharp decline in payrolls that did not really hit bottom until 2009. After
several decades of steady growth, the number of employees in the
plastics industry declined by an average of 4 percent per year through
the first decade of this century. The processing sector lost 350,000 jobs
during this time, and it has only gained back about 50,000 jobs in the
past four years.
Or to put it another way, the total volume of output of plastics products
in the United States is about 5 percent lower than where it was at the
end of 2000, but the number of employees is down 30 percent. The
chart clearly illustrates that a substantial number of jobs were lost
during the two big recessions that occurred during the 10-year span
ending in 2010, but it also shows that this industry was losing jobs
even when the economy was not in a recession.
By now, everybody is acutely aware that this situation is not restricted
to just the plastics industry, and that it is a part of a much bigger
structural problem for America. Long-term unemployment, underemployment, the skills gap, the stagnant labor participation rates and
the demise of the middle class are all part of the dilemma. The chart of
the employment data for the entire manufacturing sector exhibits a
pattern that is nearly identical to that of the plastics industry. From the
year 2000 to 2010, the U.S. manufacturing sector lost a total of more
than 5 million jobs. In the four years since hitting bottom, this sector

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has recovered fewer than 1 million jobs. The U.S. economy seems to
have little trouble generating wealth, but it no longer seems able to
distribute it efficiently.
So what does this mean for the future? In the short term, I expect that

the number of jobs in the plastic sector will continue to rise, and the
trend upward will accelerate in the years 2015 and 2016. This is

about the time that the U.S. economy is expected to get the
unemployment rate down to a level that is considered full
employment. In 2015 and 2016, the pace of overall economic growth
will rise above 3.5 percent, and the volume of plastics products
manufactured in the United States well finally get back to the prerecession levels.
But the number of jobs in the plastics industry in particular and the
manufacturing sector in general will not rise to anywhere near the
levels seen at the end of last century. Manufacturing levels are no
longer dependent on labor they are now driven by technology. This
means that the manufacturing sector will not be a significant source of
job creation for our economy going forward. The types of jobs that are
created will not be assembly, inspection and packing. They will be for
programmers and engineers.

The loss of manufacturing jobs notwithstanding, all of this should be

good for the U.S. economy in the long run if the markets and the

policymakers handle it properly. There is no shortage of jobs that need

to be done in America. Repairing our decaying infrastructure, caring for
aging baby boomers, natural disaster relief and mitigation, and
educating our youth are just a few areas that come to mind easily.
What we must do is create a bigger market with rising demand for
these jobs. Increasing our national wealth by substantially raising
our production of manufactured goods is a crucial step towards
increasing aggregate market demand in this country and thereby
creating all types of new jobs. Not just jobs in manufacturing, but in
all sectors of the economy.

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UQAT: Plastic Bag Bans

Industry is successfully fighting back plastic bag bans,
using recycling as smokescreen
Earth Policy Institute 2014 [4/22 Plastic Bag Bans Spreading in the United
States http://www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2014/update122]
A number of state governments have entertained proposals for anti-plastic bag
legislation, but not one has successfully applied a statewide charge or
banned the bags. Hawaii has a virtual state prohibition, as its four populated counties have gotten
rid of plastic bags at grocery checkouts, with the last one beginning enforcement in July 2015. Florida,
another state renowned for its beaches, legally preempts cities from enacting anti-bag
legislation. The latest attempt to remove this barrier was scrapped in April 2014, although state

lawmakers say they will revisit the proposal later in the year.
Opposition to plastic bags has emerged in Texas, despite the state accounting for 44 percent of the U.S.
plastics market and serving as the home to several important bag manufacturers, including Superbag, one
of Americas largest. Eight cities and towns in the state have active plastic bag bans, and others, like San
Antonio, have considered jumping on the bandwagon. Austin banned plastic bags in 2013, hoping to
reduce the more than $2,300 it was spending each day to deal with plastic bag trash and litter. The smaller
cities of Fort Stockton and Kermit banned plastic bags in 2011 and 2013, respectively, after ranchers
complained that cattle had died from ingesting them. Plastic bags have also been known to contaminate
cotton fields, getting caught up in balers and harming the quality of the final product. Plastic pollution in
the Trinity River Basin, which provides water to over half of all Texans, was a compelling reason for Dallas
to pass a 5 fee on plastic bags that will go into effect in 2015.
Washington, D.C., was the first U.S. city to require food and alcohol retailers to charge customers 5 for
each plastic or paper bag. Part of the revenue from this goes to the stores to help them with the costs of
implementation, and part is designated for cleanup of the Anacostia River. Most D.C. shoppers now
routinely bring their own reusable bags on outings; one survey found that 80 percent of consumers were
using fewer bags and that over 90 percent of businesses viewed the law positively or neutrally.
Montgomery County in Maryland followed Washington's example and passed a 5 charge for bags in 2011.
A recent study that compared shoppers in this county with those in neighboring Prince Georges County,
where anti-bag legislation has not gone through, found that reusable bags were seven times more popular
in Montgomery County stores. When bags became a product rather than a freebie, shoppers thought about
whether the product was worth the extra nickel and quickly got into the habit of bringing their own bags.

One strategy of the plastics industryconcerned about declining demand for its productsis
an attempt to change public perception of plastic bags by promoting recycling.
Recycling, however, is also not a good long-term solution. The vast majority of plastic bags97 percent or
more in some localesnever make it that far. Even when users have good intentions, bags blow out of
outdoor collection bins at grocery stores or off of recycling trucks. The bags that reach recycling facilities
are the bane of the programs: when mixed in with other recyclables they jam and damage sorting
machines, which are very costly to repair. In San Jose, California, where fewer than 4 percent of plastic
bags are recycled, repairs to bag-jammed equipment cost the city about $1 million a year before the
plastic bag ban went into effect in 2012.

Proposed plastic bag restrictions have been shelved in a number of

jurisdictions, including New York City, Philadelphia, and Chicago, in favor of
bag recycling programs. New York City may, however, move ahead with a bill proposed in March 2014
to place a city-wide 10 fee on single-use bags. Chicago is weighing a plastic bag ban .

Industry can adaptReusable plastic bags offer new

sources of profit
Mercury News 14 (Calefati, Jessica, Plastic bag ban gains momentum in
Sacramento, http://www.mercurynews.com/california/ci_25761400/plasticbag-ban-survives-key-committee-vote-sacramento)
Unlike last year's failed proposal, the new bill takes the unusual
approach of trying to reinvent the plastic bag industry by paying

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companies to shift from making throw-away bags to reusable ones.

The new incentive has already won the support of two California bag
manufacturers and could reshape an epic environmental battle similar to the
fight over California's "bottle bill" in the 1980s. The stakes are high this year
because the clout of environmental groups is on the line after a series of
embarrassing legislative defeats last year. Shoppers at Target carry plastic
bags at Serramonte Center in Daly City , Calif., Feb 9, 2011. (Bay Area News
Group) Supporters of the bag ban -- which cleared a key Assembly committee
Wednesday -- call it a vital tool to reduce litter as well as plastics pollution in
the Pacific Ocean, where many of the bags end up. But opponents have
labeled the bill a job killer in television and radio advertisements that started
airing in the Sacramento area earlier this week. "After seven years of going
back and forth, this is clearly going to be the year that California votes to ban
single-use plastic bags," said Mark Murray, executive director of Californians
Against Waste. "When we do, we're going to see multiple states on two
coasts follow." San Jose, San Francisco, Oakland and many other Bay Area
communities have already banned single-use bags through local ordinances.
But last year, a bill sponsored by Sen. Alex Padilla, D-Pacoima, fell three
votes short of the 21 votes needed to get off the Senate floor. In January,
Padilla, who is also carrying this year's bill, announced a breakthrough
compromise with some of the legislation's opponents. He agreed to make
$2 million from the state's bottle-and-can recycling fund available to
California businesses that want to retool their operations and
instead manufacture reusable plastic bags that meet the bill's
rigorous standards. Those businesses must also retain and retrain
their employees to get the grants. That was enough to convince one
major Southern California plastic bag manufacturer to change his mind about
the legislation, which is co-sponsored by Sens. Kevin de Leon, D-Los Angeles,
and Ricardo Lara, D-Bell Gardens. Pete Grande, CEO of Vernon-based
Command Packaging, said he dropped his opposition to the bill after de Leon
visited his factory and spoke with him about the proposal's merits. His
company is now manufacturing reusable plastic bags and hopes to obtain one
of the grants available to businesses if the bill is signed into law. "I have been
on the opposition side for the last several years, but I've come to the
conclusion that our industry has the ability to change," Grande said.
"And as a leader in the industry, we are making that change."
Grande's company is one of three in the state that manufactures
plastic bags. Fewer than half a dozen other manufacturers produce
the plastic film used to make single-use bags.

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UQAT: Recycling
Recyling plastics is both unfeasible and unprofitable

Whole Systems Foundation 2010 [Recycling and Pyrolysis of Plastic

http://www.whole-systems.org/recycling_and_pyrolysis_of_plastic.html]
recycling plastics has proven difficult. One of the biggest problem
with plastic recycling is that it is difficult to automate the sorting of plastic
waste, and so it is labor intensive. Typically, waste plant workers sort the plastic by looking at
Unfortunately,

the resin identification code; though common containers like soda bottles can be sorted from memory.
Plastic is also sorted with float/sink water tests and wind tests. There are machines that sort with laser
technology and can differentiate between most of the known plastics. Other recyclable materials, such as
metals, are easier to process mechanically. However, new mechanical sorting processes are being utilized

While bottles are made from a single

type of plastic, making them relatively easy to sort out, a consumer product
like a cellular phone may have many small parts consisting of over a dozen
different types and colors of plastics. In a case like this, the resources it would
take to separate the plastics far exceed their value and the item is discarde d.
to increase plastic recycling capacity and efficiency.

However, developments are taking place in the field of Active Disassembly, which may result in more

Recycling certain types of plastics

can be unprofitable, as well. For example, polystyrene is rarely recycled
because it is usually not cost effective. These unrecycled wastes are typically disposed of in
landfills, incinerated or used to produce electricity at waste-to-energy plants .
consumer product components being re-used or recycled.

Plastic recycling isnt feasible

Earth Policy Institute 2014 [4/22 Plastic Bag Bans Spreading in the United
States http://www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2014/update122]
One strategy of the plastics industryconcerned about declining demand for its productsis an attempt to
change public perception of plastic bags by promoting recycling .

Recycling, however, is also not a

good long-term solution. The vast majority of plastic bags97 percent or
more in some localesnever make it that far. Even when users have good
intentions, bags blow out of outdoor collection bins at grocery stores or off of
recycling trucks. The bags that reach recycling facilities are the bane of the
programs: when mixed in with other recyclables they jam and damage sorting
machines, which are very costly to repair. In San Jose, California, where fewer
than 4 percent of plastic bags are recycled , repairs to bag-jammed equipment cost the city
about $1 million a year before the plastic bag ban went into effect in 2012 .

Rise of biodegradable plastics will block recycling

Packaging Strategies 2011 [10/15 Waste not, want not: presenters

concur that recycling is a 21st century imperative.]
Moving from paper to plastic, Dennis Sabourin, executive director of the National Association of PET
Container Resources (NAPCOR), argued that for plastic packaging, " There

is no sustainability
without recycling." He said packaging should be designed for an energy-efficient afterlife, and the
best way to achieve that is to "preserve the molecule." The rapid, ongoing emergence of
companies that offer additives that purport to make plastic "biodegradable"
is, from NAPCOR's perspective, not a solution but yet another roadblock to increasing
recycling rates.

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[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]
Biodegradability additives are a cost to the packaging system with questionable benefit, Sabourin said,
adding, "There is no such thing, environmentally, as a polymer so good it can just be thrown out." He
pointed out that the current de facto definition of "bioplastic." which originates from the Society of the
Plastics Industry (SPI), is overly broad--it includes both bio-based and biodegradable materials, yet the two
are not equivalent--and thus problematic for both the packaging industry and consumers

The other problem with bio-based and "biodegradable" plastics, he asserted,

is that it is not clear whether they can be recycled along with standard PET.
Some of these materials may be incompatible with PET in recycling, which
further stymies efforts to raise America's recycling rate, currently at an unimpressive
28%. "All other developed nations have a higher recycling rate than the U.S.," said Sabourin. He noted that
Japan's rate is 93% and China's rate is above 90%. The U.S. "should be embarrassed" by our lack of
progress in this area, he emphasized .

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Link

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LinkWaste/Ecological
Consciousness
Addressing ocean debris requires demolishing the entire
business model of the plastics industry
Angus 2014 [Ian, Plastic Plague Monthly Review 65.10]

The petrochemical industry in particular has generated a huge range of materials that nature cannot
recycle and reuse. In the first decade after the Second World War, plastics were promoted for and used
primarily to make durable products: furniture, tires, automobile and airplane components, and the like. But

the industry has found its biggest

success with throwaways, products specifically designed to be used once and
discarded. Commoner described the trend toward disposables in 1971, but he could not have known
while plastics are still widely used for long-lasting products,

then how bad it would get when the plastic industry really got going. When The Closing Circle was
published, there were no plastic soft-drink bottles, and no one imagined that giant corporations would one
day brand and bottle tap water. Today, 72 billion plastic bottles are produced every year. Similarly,
Commoner wrote before the introduction of plastic grocery bags, which were not adopted by major
supermarket chains until the early 1980s. Today over 500 billion bags are made every year.

Bottles and bagstogether with blister packs, polystyrene tubs, foam peanuts, bubble wrap,
styrofoam trays, candy wrappers, and a multitude of other forms of packaging now account for a
third of the plastic produced each year worldwide. It is a bizarre and extremely irrational
process: producing products that are designed to be thrown away but are made from materials that never
die. The second of Barry Commoners famous Four Laws of Ecology is: everything must go somewhere. As
he wrote, that is a critically important issue for materials that degrade extremely slowly, if at all. Some
plastic has been burned, some has been recycled, but mostbillions and billions of tons of itremains on
earth, and will do so indefinitely.
In his remarkable book Plastic Ocean, Charles Moore (with Cassandra Phillips) reports on the part of the
unstoppable avalanche of nonessentials (39) that ends up in the oceans, where it chokes and poisons
fish, mammals, and birds, and endangers human life. By turns a memoir, environmental expos, and call

Plastic Ocean is a dramatic account of what Moore has learned in fifteen years of
collecting plastic debris in the Pacific Ocean , studying its effects on marine wildlife, tracing its
to action,

origins, and campaigning to stop it.

Moore is a rare creature, an activist researcher with the means and determination to work independently of
academic and corporate restrictions. Using a family inheritanceironically, his grandfather was president
of Hancock Oilhe founded the Algalita Marine Research Foundation in 1994, hoping to shorten the
distance between research and restoration of the marine environment. He writes, The spill, study, and
stall crowdadvocating the hundred-year-old petroleum industrys strategydemands a science of
valueless facts to provide a complete mechanistic understanding of a problem before embarking on any
solution. Endless, purposeful delay pending perfect sound science enforces a form of intellectual
sadomasochism driven by the need to preserve profits, not benefit society (329).
In 1997, while sailing his research boat between Hawaii and California, Moore was initially bemused and
then shocked by the amount of plastic litter that floated by, a thousand miles from the nearest land. He
later learned that the material he saw was concentrated in the North Pacific Gyre, an area where
intersecting currents, prevailing winds, and the earths rotation combine to produce a slow moving
whirlpool more than twice the size of Texas. There are huge gyres in each of the worlds oceans. Any
plastic light enough to float that enters the seaeither directly by spills and dumping, or carried from land
by wind or riversis likely to be swept into a gyre, where it will circulate indefinitely, broken by waves and
wind into ever-smaller particles. Moore explains: Anthropogenic debrisman-made trash, 8090 percent
of it plastichas broken the reverie of pristine perfection that is the oceans essence. Its become her most
common surface feature. Trash has superseded the natural ocean sights, stamping a permanent plastic
footprint on the oceans surface (70). Bear in mind that although people have been dumping garbage in
oceans for millennia, we have only been throwing plastic away for fifty years. The accumulation of millions
of tons of plastic in ocean gyres is powerful confirmation that the nature of garbage changed qualitatively
in the last half of the twentieth century.
On the Internet, it is easy to find articles that describe the Great Pacific Garbage Patch as a floating
island of plastic debris, sixty to ninety feet thick. Moore dissociates himself from such fantasies. He
describes it as a thin plastic soupuntold millions of plastic particles, interspersed with disposable lighters,
pieces of fish net, broken buoys, and other objects that have not broken up yet. If anything, that makes it

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much more dangerous to the birds, mammals, and fish to whom small colored particles suspended in water
look like food.
Concern about the plastic ocean is not simply about aestheticsthe ocean equivalent of roadside trash. It
is not just unsightly; it has made the ocean deadly for its inhabitants. Cases of large animals killed by
plastic have been widely publicizedthousands of birds, turtles, seals, and even whales die every year,
their throats and guts clogged with indigestible debris. Plastic affects the entire animal food chain. As
Moores research has proven, even tiny lanternfish ingest plastic particlesand since they are the main
food of tuna, cod, salmon, and shark, many of those particles become part of human diets. In addition to
causing direct physical damage to digestive systems, plastic particles are now known to be an efficient
delivery system for toxic chemicals, some from their manufacturing processes, others absorbed as they
float by polluted shorelines. Many of these chemicals are endocrine disrupters, which interfere with
biological processes, including fetal development. In addition to causing premature death for countless
animals, these chemicals ultimately concentrate in the fish that humans eat, contributing to a host of
diseases.
These consequences are all well-known to science, but there has been little action to stop plastic pollution.

The industry has successfully diverted attention away from the production of
throwaway plastics to individual consumer behaviorthe solutions they promote
involve cleaning up or recycling products that never should have been made
in the first place. Moore discovered this personally in 2000, when a conference on marine debris

rejected his request for discussion of the plastics industry. For the organizers, he realized, plastics pose a
handling problemthat is, a people problem, not a material problem. Its all our fault, in other words
(162). At a similar conference in 2011, government and industry representatives worked with the
organizers to draft what was to be a plan to lead the way to a debris-free oceanbut the draft did not
even mention plastic until Moore and other activist-scientists loudly objected. As Moore told a reporter at

trying to clean up the oceans while doing nothing to stop production of

disposable plastic is like trying to bail out a bathtub with the tap still
running (165).
the time,

Ultimately, Moore concludes, the problem is a system that puts corporate interests ahead of the
environment, even ahead of human survival. Because change is hard and powerful people and
organizations benefit from the status quo. Plastics are a high-stakes game, and those who run it can ill
afford to lose control of the playing field.

But ridding the oceans of plastic means

stopping all plastic inputsnow (292). That will only happen if governments
confront industry and put responsibility where it belongson plastics producersnot volunteer
cleanup crews, taxpayer-supported government agencies, and NGOs (164

Aff requires decrease in plastic consumption

The Telegraph 2009 [4/24 Drowning in plastic: The Great Pacific Garbage
Patch is twice the size of France
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/5208645/Drowning-in-plasticThe-Great-Pacific-Garbage-Patch-is-twice-the-size-of-France.html]
The Great Pacific Garbage Patch has now been tentatively mapped into an east

and west section and the combined weight of plastic there is estimated at three million tons and increasing
steadily. It appears to be the big daddy of them all, but we do not know for sure.
Dr Pearn Niiler of the Scripps Oceanographic Institute in San Diego, the world's leading authority on ocean
currents, thinks that there is an even bigger garbage patch in the South Pacific, in the vicinity of Easter
Island, but no scientists have yet gone to look.
The French cultural theorist Paul Virilio observed that every new technology opens the possibility for a new
form of accident. By inventing the locomotive, you also invent derailments. By inventing the aeroplane,
you create plane crashes and mid-air collisions.
When Leo Baekeland, a Belgian chemist, started tinkering around in his garage in Yonkers, New York,
working on the first synthetic polymer, who could have foreseen that a hundred years later plastic would
outweigh plankton six-to-one in the middle of the Pacific Ocean?
Baekeland was trying to mimic shellac, a natural polymer secreted by the Asian scale beetle and used at
the time to coat electrical wires. In 1909 he patented a mouldable hard plastic that he called Bakelite, and
which made him very rich indeed.
Chemists were soon experimenting with variations, breaking down the long hydrocarbon chains in crude
petroleum into smaller ones and mixing them together, adding chlorine to get PVC, introducing gas to get
polystyrene. Nylon was invented in 1935 and found its first application in stockings, and then after the
Second World War came acrylics, foam rubber, polythene, polyurethane, Plexiglass and more: an incredible
outpouring of new plastic products and the revolution of clear plastic food wraps and containers, which
preserved food longer and allowed people to live much further away from where it was produced.

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Single-use plastic bags first appeared in the US in 1957 and in British supermarkets in the late 1960s;
worldwide there are more than a trillion manufactured every year, although the upward trend is now
levelling off and falling in many countries, including Britain. We reduced our plastic bag use by 26 per cent
last year, to 9.9 billion. Bottled water entered the mass market in the mid-1980s. Global consumption is
now 200 billion litres a year and only one in five of those plastic bottles is recycled. The total global
production of plastic, which was five million tons in the 1950s, is expected to hit 260 million tons this year.
Look around you. Start counting things made of plastic and don't forget your buttons, the stretch in your
underwear, the little caps on the end of your shoelaces. The stuff is absolutely ubiquitous, forming the
most basic infrastructure of modern consumer society. We are scarely out of the womb when we meet our
first plastic: wristband, aspirator, thermometer, disposable nappy. We gnaw on plastic teething rings and
for the rest of our lives scarcely pass a moment away from plastics.
The benefits of plastic, most of which relate to convenience, consumer choice and profit, have been
phenomenal. But except for the small percentage that has been incinerated, every single molecule of
plastic that has ever been manufactured is still somewhere in the environment, and some 100 million tons
of it are floating in the oceans.
A dead albatross was found recently with a piece of plastic from the 1940s in its stomach. Even if plastic
production halted tomorrow, the planet would be dealing with its environmental consequences for
thousands of years, and on the bottom of the oceans, where an estimated 70 per cent of marine plastic
debris ends up water bottles sink fairly quickly for tens of thousands of years. It may form a layer in the
geological record of the planet, or some microbe may evolve that can digest plastic and find itself supplied
with a vast food resource. In the meantime, what can we do?
What we cannot do is clean up the plastic in the oceans. 'It's the biggest misunderstanding people have on
this issue,' Moore says. 'They think the ocean is like a lake and we can go out with nets and just clean it up.
People find it difficult to grasp the true size of the oceans and the fact that most of this plastic is in tiny
pieces and it's everywhere. All we can do is stop putting more of it in, and that means redesigning our
relationship with plastic.'
At the far end of a huge loading warehouse on the San Francisco docks dub reggae is pulsing and two
young women are shooting dry ice into two-litre plastic bottles. David de Rothschild, the tall, bearded,
long-haired, environmentalist son of the Rothschild banking family, wearing hemp Nikes and a skull-andbones belt buckle, strides in past a display of nurdles, an aquarium full of plastic soup and various rejected
prototypes of the catamaran he intends to build and sail across the Pacific to Australia, visiting the Great
Pacific Garbage Patch and various rubbish-strewn islands along the way.
He wants the boat to be made entirely out of recycled plastics and float on recycled plastic bottles, and
this has presented a daunting challenge to his team of designers, consultants and naval architects. Human
ingenuity has devised many fine applications for recycled plastic, but boat-building has not so far been one
of them. The design team has had to start from scratch, over and over again. Furthermore, because the
point of this voyage is to galvanise media and public attention on the issue of plastic waste, the boat
needs to look dramatic and iconic, and it must produce all its own energy, generate no emissions and
compost its waste.
'The message of this project is that plastic's not the enemy,' de Rothschild says, speaking rapidly and
unstoppably in a mid-Atlantic accent. He is full of bright energy, good humour, marketing slogans and an
almost childlike enthusiasm. 'It's about rethinking waste as a resource. It's about doing smart things with
plastic and showcasing solutions. It's about using adventure to engage people and start a conversation
that creates change in society. You're always going to get people who say, "Oh, he's a bloody Rothschild,
sitting on a boat made of, what's that? Champagne bottles?" And that's fine because it gets people talking
about it and thinking about where their rubbish goes.'
The idea took hold of him in July 2006. He had just got back from the North Pole, where he led an
expedition designed to heighten awareness about global warming. On the internet he came across a UN
report describing the Great Pacific Garbage Patch and estimating that there was now an average of 46,000
pieces of plastic per square kilometre of the world's oceans. 'I thought, this is nuts that we don't know
about this! Six-to-one plastic-to-plankton ratio? This has got to be my next expedition.'
Born in London, de Rothschild, 31, was a reckless, hyperactive child and teenager who found an outlet for
energies in competitive showjumping and triathlons. His school career was erratic but he manage to buckle
himself down, pass his A-levels and get into Oxford Brookes University to study computing. Afterwards he
got a job with a music licensing and merchandising company, designing websites for Britney Spears and
U2, and absorbing lasting lessons on the power and strategies of marketing.
Then, with the encouragement of a girlfriend, he got deeply involved in alternative medicine, which led
him to organic farming in New Zealand and the subsequent realisation that it was all for naught if the air,
the water and the natural environment continued to be poisoned.
In 2004 a friend's brother invited him on a 1,150-mile traverse of Antarctica by foot and ski, and on a whim
he invited schoolteachers and children in New Zealand to follow the expedition's progress and learn about
Antarctica.
On his return he founded an organisation, Adventure Ecology, intended to use expeditions to get
schoolchildren interested and actively involved in environmental issues. The Arctic global warming
expedition was the first. Crossing the Pacific in a recycled-plastic boat will be the second.
He decided to name the boat Plastiki, in homage to Kon-Tiki, the raft of balsa logs and hemp ropes in which
Thor Heyerdahl sailed across the Pacific in 1947. He recruited designers, a public relations team and
corporate sponsors, including Hewlett-Packard and the International Watch Company. He won't say how

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much it is costing or how much of his own money is going into it, only that it is more than he would like
and less than it could be.
Jo Royle, the renowed British yachtswoman, has signed on as skipper, and two of Thor Heyerdahl's
grandchildren have agreed to join the crew. And through Adventure Ecology, de Rothschild has launched a
competition called SMART, inviting individuals and organisations from science, marketing, art and industrial
design research and technology to present tangible solutions to the problems of plastic waste, and offering
grants and publicity to the winners.

For consumers, the easiest way to make a difference is to give up plastic

shopping bags and plastic water bottles, which contribute more to plastic
pollution than any other products. Then comes plastic packaging, which is a
little more complicated. It is easy to point out examples of excessive packaging, but plastic does

have the virtue of being lighter than paper, cardboard and glass, which gives it a smaller carbon footprint.
For food especially, recyclable plastic packaging is probably the best option .

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LinkAT: Plan just > cleanup

Cleanup isnt feasibleOnly drastic decrease in
consumption addresses 1AC harms

Boyle 2011 [7/31 Lisa, environmental lawyer, Plastic And The Great
Recycling Swindle http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lisa-kaas-boyle/plasticsindustry-markets_b_912503.html]
Myth # 4: Plastic Pollution Can be Cleaned Out of the Environment
The plastics lobby encourages the notion that plastics can be cleaned from the
ocean, and in some cases even funds clean-up missions and research on clean-up strategies to divert
attention and resources from stopping the ongoing flow of plastic pollution.
Reputable marine scientists insist that even if we had all the resources and time in the world to
do it, we cannot strain the ocean of plastics that exist in such massive
quantities, in both macro and micro sizes, and throughout the water column, without straining the
ocean of life. The only "solution" is to turn off the tap of plastics entering the ocean and
to wait for it to eventually wash to shore, sink and be covered with sediment, or be eaten! This is a
situation that calls for stopping the problem at the source, not for delay tactics as the world becomes
increasingly polluted with plastic.

Cleanup is impracticalAff requires decrease in

consumption

The Telegraph 2009 [4/24 Drowning in plastic: The Great Pacific Garbage
Patch is twice the size of France
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/5208645/Drowning-in-plasticThe-Great-Pacific-Garbage-Patch-is-twice-the-size-of-France.html]
What we cannot do is clean up the plastic in the oceans . 'It's the biggest
misunderstanding people have on this issue,' Moore says. 'They think the ocean is like a lake
and we can go out with nets and just clean it up. People find it difficult to
grasp the true size of the oceans and the fact that most of this plastic is in
tiny pieces and it's everywhere. All we can do is stop putting more of it in,
and that means redesigning our relationship with plastic.'

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LinkAT: Recycling Turn

Recycling plastics is both infeasible and unprofitable
Whole Systems Foundation 2010 [Recycling and Pyrolysis of Plastic
http://www.whole-systems.org/recycling_and_pyrolysis_of_plastic.html]
recycling plastics has proven difficult. One of the biggest problem with plastic
it is difficult to automate the sorting of plastic waste, and so it is
labor intensive. Typically, waste plant workers sort the plastic by looking at the resin identification
Unfortunately,

recycling is that

code; though common containers like soda bottles can be sorted from memory. Plastic is also sorted with
float/sink water tests and wind tests. There are machines that sort with laser technology and can
differentiate between most of the known plastics. Other recyclable materials, such as metals, are easier to
process mechanically. However, new mechanical sorting processes are being utilized to increase plastic
recycling capacity and efficiency. While bottles are made from a single type of plastic, making them
relatively easy to sort out, a consumer product like a cellular phone may have many small parts consisting
of over a dozen different types and colors of plastics. In a case like this,

the resources it would

take to separate the plastics far exceed their value

and the item is discarded. However,

developments are taking place in the field of Active Disassembly, which may result in more consumer

Recycling certain types of plastics can be

unprofitable, as well. For example, polystyrene is rarely recycled because it is
usually not cost effective. These unrecycled wastes are typically disposed of in landfills,
incinerated or used to produce electricity at waste-to-energy plants .
product components being re-used or recycled.

Industrys business model is based on new plastic

Recycling isnt profitable

The Telegraph 2009 [4/24 Drowning in plastic: The Great Pacific Garbage
Patch is twice the size of France
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/5208645/Drowning-in-plasticThe-Great-Pacific-Garbage-Patch-is-twice-the-size-of-France.html]
In general terms, it is already clear what we need to do about plastic. Since it is made from oil, which will
run out in our lifetimes and get more expensive as it does, we have to start re-using plastic and designing

At present only a few of our many hundred plastics can simply be

melted down and moulded into something else; the rest are crosscontaminated with other chemicals and types of plastic. But the billion- dollar
plastic industry is tooled for virgin plastic and resistant to change.
Charles Moore gives talks to plastic industry executives whenever he can and
finds very little interest in recycling, because it's the least profitable sector of
the industry. 'A lot of companies and product designers and marketing people
don't like recycled plastic either,' de Rothschild says, 'You can't dye it with those bright,
attention-grabbing colours.'
it for re-use.

Numerous barriers prevent industry from effectively using

recycled plastic
Plastics News 2011 [10/10 CCMA talks recycling, materials separation]

the plastics industry has moved beyond lightweighting

into more-aggressive use of post-consumer materials. But according
to experts up and down the supply chain, there's still too much confusion at
In its search for sustainability,
packaging

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all levels about how to separate valuable packaging materials from caps and
closures after their initial use.
"The technology doesn't exist at a rate that would be affordable for any of us
to separate [poly]ethylene from [poly]propylene - from the reprocessor down to the
[materials-recovery facilities] to the people who are doing the curbside collecting," Stephanie Baker said
Sept. 12 at the Closure and Container Manufacturers Association's annual meeting in Atlanta.
The Barrington, Ill.-based industry group collocated its meeting with Plastics News Global Group's Caps &
Closures 2011 conference.
Baker, market development director for the recycling division of KW Plastics in Troy, Ala., said that in 2010,
the firm purchased 80 million pounds of scrap PP, of which 70 percent came from caps and closures.
KW, which has four wash lines for high density PE and PP, views reclaimed PP as the next boom in postconsumer plastics.
"The

missing link is the [curbside] collector, and they are so confused - they
have no idea what they are supposed to collect," Baker said.

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IMPACT

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ImpactEconomy

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Plastics k2 Economy
Plastics are key to the world economy
BPF 06

(British Plastics Federation on Plastics and Sustainability

http://www.bpf.co.uk/Sustainability/Plastics_and_Sustainability.aspx)

The plastics industry contributes significantly to the global economy. It

drives innovation, improves quality of life, and facilitates resource efficiency
and climate protection. In Europe alone, more than 1.6 million people
work in over 50,000 plastics-related companies, generating turnover in
the region of 300 billion per year. The plastics industry is socially inclusive and offers a
wide range of worthwhile careers with considerable room for career
development, progression and training.

Plastics industry key to US manufacturing

EHSC 14

(Environmental Health Strategy Center http://www.preventharm.org/Programs/HealthyEconomy/Sustainable-Bioplastics.php)

The demand for safe, sustainable products has soared in recent years. One of the most promising

The plastics
industry is the third largest manufacturing industry in the United States .
Conventional plastics are made from nonrenewable petroleum and natural gas byproducts. Bio-based
plastic, made from the starch or sugars of plants, is emerging as a safer, more
sustainable alternative to conventional plastics. The potential societal benefit
from a shift toward bio-based plastics could be enormous. Substitution of
biopolymers for petroleum-based plastics could reduce consumption of fossil fuels and
innovations in sustainable material production is the development of bio-based plastics.

eliminate many of the health concerns associated with traditional plastic production, use and disposal.
Increased demand for domestic agricultural feedstock also offers new resource-based economic
development opportunities for farmers and rural communities. Additionally bio-based plastics have the
benefit of being made from annually renewable, recyclable, biodegradable and compostable natural
materials. While biopolymers can be made from an almost unlimited range of natural materials most of the
bio-based plastic currently available is made from corn from the Midwest. Corn is a poor choice from a
sustainability perspective. Compared with other crops it is resource intensive and most of the corn grown
in the Midwest is genetically modified which makes it less desirable for consumers concerned with
sustainability and food security. Maine potatoes and woody biomass have the potential to provide the
world with safe, sustainable plastics. Potatoes and wood pulp possess all of the key properties needed to
make bio-plastics and can be more sustainable raw materials than corn. The Environmental Health
Strategy Center is part of the Sustainable Bioplastics Council of Maine, a trade organization of diverse
Maine businesses and organizations working to develop a bioplastic manufacturing enterprise in Maine.
Our aim is to insure that the feedstock, manufacturing, marketing, working conditions and ownership
are economically, environmentally, and socially sustainable. Over $2 million has been raised for research
and development of Maines bioplastics industry. Our project team has identified that Maine potatoes and
woody biomass are an economically viable source for new production of bioplastics. Thirteen million
pounds of bioplastic could be made each year solely from waste potatoes leftover from the growing of
Maines potato food crop

Manufacturings key to resilience

Michael Ettlinger, Vice President for Economic Policy at the Center for

American Progress and prior to joining the Center spent six years at the
Economic Policy Institute directing the Economic Analysis and Research
Network and previously was tax policy director for Citizens for Tax Justice and
the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy for 11 years and has also
served on the staff of the New York State Assembly, April 20 11, The
Importance and Promise of American Manufacturing Why It Matters if We
Make It in America and Where We Stand Today,
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http://www.americanprogress.org/wpcontent/uploads/issues/2011/04/pdf/manufacturing.pdf
Manufacturing is critically important to the American economy . For
generations, the strength of our country rested on the power of our
factory floorsboth the machines and the men and women who worked them. We need
manufacturing to continue to be a bedrock of strength for
generations to come. Manufacturing is woven into the structure of
our economy: Its importance goes far beyond what happens behind the factory gates. The
strength or weakness of American manufacturing carries
implications for the entire economy, our national security, and the
well-being of all Americans.
Manufacturing today accounts for 12 percent of the U.S. economy
and about 11 percent of the private-sector workforce. But its
significance is even greater than these numbers would suggest.
The direct impact of manufacturing is only a part of the picture.
First, jobs in the manufacturing sector are good middle-class jobs for
millions of Americans. Those jobs serve an important role, offering economic opportunity
to hard-working, middle-skill workers. This creates upward mobility and
broadens and strengthens the middle class to the benefit of the
entire economy. Whats more, U.S.-based manufacturing underpins a
broad range of jobs that are quite different from the usual image
of manufacturing. These are higher-skill service jobs that include
the accountants, bankers, and lawyers that are associated with
any industry, as well as a broad range of other jobs including basic research
and technology development, product and process engineering and design, operations and maintenance,
transportation, testing, and lab work.

Many of these jobs are critical to American technology and

innovation leadership. The problem today is this: Many multinational corporations may for a period keep these higher-skill jobs here at

home while they move basic manufacturing elsewhere in response to other countries subsidies, the search for cheaper labor costs, and the desire for more direct
access to overseas markets, but eventually many of these service jobs will follow. When the basic manufacturing leaves, the feedback loop from the manufacturing floor to
the rest of a manufacturing operationa critical element in the innovative processis eventually broken. To maintain that feedback loop, companies need to move
higher-skill jobs to where they do their manufacturing.

And with those jobs goes American leadership in technology and

innovation. This is why having a critical mass of both
manufacturing and associated service jobs in the United States
matters. The industrial commons that comes from the
crossfertilization and engagement of a community of experts in
industry, academia, and government is vital to our nations
economic competitiveness.
Manufacturing also is important for the nations economic stability.
The experience of the Great Recession exemplifies this point.
Although manufacturing plunged in 2008 and early 2009 along with the rest
of the economy, it is on the rebound today while other key economic
sectors, such as construction, still languish. Diversity in the economy is
importantand manufacturing is a particularly important part of the
mix. Although manufacturing is certainly affected by broader economic
events, the sectors internal diversitysupplying consumer goods
as well as industrial goods, serving both domestic and external
markets gives it great potential resiliency.
Finally, supplying our own needs through a strong domestic
manufacturing sector protects us from international economic
and political disruptions. This is most obviously important in the realm

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of national security, even narrowly defined as matters related to military

strength, where the risk of a weak manufacturing capability is obvious. But
overreliance on imports and substantial manufacturing trade
deficits weaken us in many ways, making us vulnerable to
everything from exchange rate fluctuations to trade embargoes
to natural disasters.

Plastic industry builds jobs-this shows economically

SPI 1/29

(Founded in 1937, SPI: The Plastics Industry Trade Association promotes growth in the $373
billion U.S. plastics industry. Representing nearly 900,000 American workers in the third largest U.S.
manufacturing industry, SPI delivers legislative and regulatory advocacy, market research, industry
promotion and the fostering of business relationships and zero waste strategies. SPI also owns and
produces the international NPE trade show. All profits from NPE are reinvested into SPIs industry services.
http://www.plasticsindustry.org/AboutSPI/NewsItem.cfm?ItemNumber=12268)
WASHINGTON, DC SPI: The Plastics Industry Trade Association, which represents the nations third largest
manufacturing industry, supports President Obamas efforts to create jobs and strengthen the middle class
by expanding the economy and negotiating sensible trade agreements. An in-depth data analysis of the
plastics industrys 2012 performance globally and in the U.S. is detailed in the newly released reports
titled, The Definition, Size and Impact of the U.S. Plastics Industry, and Global Business Trends, Partners,
Hot Products. Plastics continue to rank higher than the rest of the U.S. manufacturing sectors key growth

The industry has remained highly

competitive by finding innovative solutions and efficiencies, as well as by
expanding its international reach to new markets. Economists attribute the
plastics industrys continued growth to positive trends in overall economic
health and an abundant supply of inexpensive natural gas. While the nations employment began
areas, said William R. Carteaux, SPIs president and CEO.

improving in 2013, the plastics industry has been steadily recovering since the 2008-2009 recession. The

plastics industry employment in 2012 included 892,000

people in 15,949 facilities across the country. The industry kept pace by growing 0.1
percent per year from 1980 to 2012, which is better than manufacturing as a whole.
latest figures indicate that

Plastics manufacturers shipped more than $373 billion in goods and invested more than $9.6 billion on new
capital equipment in 2012. Also reflecting the improving U.S. economy, apparent consumption of

plastics industry goods grew 5.7 percent from $237.6 billion in 2011 to $251
billion in 2012. The U.S. industry is gaining ground over other world markets due to its abundant new

sources of natural gas via shale. Use of natural gas by U.S. manufacturers reduces the cost of energy and
feedstock creating a competitive advantage considering that most resins used in Europe and Asia are
made from oil-based feedstock, Carteaux said. While the U.S. trade surplus was $13.1 billion, Mexico and
Canada remained the U.S. plastics industrys largest export markets. The industry exported $13.6 billion to
Mexico and $12.5 billion to Canada. China is the industrys third largest export market.

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UQEconomy High now

The US economy has reached full liftoffGrowth will be
sustained for 5 reasons
USA Today July 5th [2014 5 reasons why U.S. economy is world beater
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/07/05/whats-makingus-economy-a-world-beater-5-factors/12242565/]
WASHINGTON (AP) How does the U.S. economy do it?
Europe is floundering. China faces slower growth. Japan is struggling to sustain tentative gains.

the U.S. job market is humming, and the pace of economic growth is steadily
rising. Five full years after a devastating recession officially ended, the economy is finally showing the
Yet

vigor that Americans have long awaited.

employers added 288,000 jobs and helped reduce the

unemployment rate to 6.1%, the lowest since September 2008. June capped a fiveLast month,

month stretch of 200,000-plus job gains the first in nearly 15 years.

After having shrunk at a 2.9% annual rate from January through March largely because of a brutal winter

the U.S. economy is expected to grow at a healthy 3% pace the rest of the
year.
Here are five reasons the United States is outpacing other major economies:
An aggressive central bank

"The Federal Reserve acted sooner and more aggressively than other central banks in keeping rates low,"
says Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group.
In December 2008, the Fed slashed short-term interest rates to near zero and has kept them there. Ultralow loan rates have made it easier for individuals and businesses to borrow and spend. The Fed also
launched three bond-buying programs meant to reduce long-term rates.
By contrast, the European Central Bank has been slower to respond to signs of economic distress among
the 18 nations that share the euro currency. The ECB actually raised rates in 2011 the same year the
eurozone sank back into recession.
It's worth keeping in mind that the Fed has two mandates: To keep prices stable and to maximize
employment. The ECB has just one mandate: To guard against high inflation. The Fed was led during and
after the Great Recession by Ben Bernanke, a student of the Great Depression who was determined to
avoid a repeat of the 1930s' economic collapse.
Janet Yellen, who succeeded Bernanke as Fed chair this year, has continued his emphasis on nursing the
U.S. economy back to health after the recession of 2007-2009 with the help of historically low rates.

Stronger banks
The United States moved faster than Europe to restore its banks' health after the financial crisis of 20082009. The U.S. government bailed out the financial system and subjected big banks to stress tests in 2009
to reveal their financial strength. By showing the banks to be surprisingly healthy, the stress tests helped
restore confidence in the U.S. financial system.
Banks gradually started lending again. European banks are only now undergoing stress tests, and the
results won't be out until fall. In the meantime, Europe's banks lack confidence. They fear that other banks
are holding too many bad loans and that Europe is vulnerable to another crisis. So they aren't lending
much.
In the United States, overall bank lending is up nearly 4% in the past year. Lending to business has jumped
10%.
In the eurozone, lending has dropped 3.7% overall, according to figures from the Institute of International
Finance. Lending to business is off 2.5%. (The U.S. figures are for the year ending in mid-June; the
European figures are from May.)

A more flexible economy

Economists say Japan and Europe need to undertake reforms to make their economies more flexible
more, in other words, like America's.
Europe needs to lift wage restrictions that prevent employers from cutting pay (rather than eliminating
jobs) when times are bad. It could also rethink welfare and retirement programs that discourage people
from working and dismantle policies that protect favored businesses and block innovative newcomers, the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has argued.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has proposed reforms meant to make the Japanese economy more competitive.
He wants to expand child care so more women can work, replace small inefficient farms with more large-

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scale commercial farms and allow more foreign migrant workers to fill labor shortages in areas such as
nursing and construction.
Yet his proposals face fierce opposition.
"Europe and Japan remain less well-positioned for durable long-term growth, as they have only recently
begun to tackle their deep-rooted structural problems, and a lot remains to be done," says Eswar Prasad, a
professor of trade policy at Cornell University.
China is struggling to manage a transition from an economy based on exports and often wasteful
investment in real estate and factories to a sturdier but likely slower-growing economy based on more
consumer spending.

Less budget-cutting

Weighed down by debt, many European countries took an ax to swelling budget deficits. They slashed
pension benefits, raised taxes and cut civil servants' wages. The cuts devastated several European
economies. They led to 27% unemployment in Greece, 14% in Portugal and 25% in Spain. The United
States has done some budget cutting, too, and raised taxes. But U.S. austerity hasn't been anywhere near
as harsh.

A roaring stock market

The Fed's easy-money policies ignited a world-beating U.S. stock market rally. Over the past five years,
U.S. stocks have easily outpaced shares in Europe, Japan and Hong Kong. That was one of Bernanke's goals
in lowering rates. He figured that miserly fixed-income rates would nudge investors into stocks in search of
higher returns. Higher stock prices would then make Americans feel more confident and more willing to
spend the so-called wealth effect.
Most economists agree it's worked .

All sectors of the economy are growingThe stock market

is at record highs
New York Times July 3rd [2014 Hiring Is Strong and Jobless Rate Declines
to 6.1% http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/04/business/jobs-data-for-junereleased-by-labor-department.html]
American companies are finally getting comfortable enough with the
economys prospects to add new workers at a very healthy pace, after years of
saying they lacked the confidence to hire people aggressively during a fitful recovery.

Employers added 288,000 jobs in June, the Labor Department said Thursday, the fifth
month in a row that hiring has topped the 200,000 mark. The unemployment rate
dipped to 6.1 percent last month, the best reading since September 2008, when the collapse of Lehman
Brothers turned what had been a mild recession into an economic rout.
Since then, many segments of the economy have rebounded including corporate
profits, Wall Street and the housing market even as payrolls inched higher at a grindingly slow rate.

broader economic gains are prompting businesses to actually hire

significantly more workers in response to growing demand , rather than taking half
Now, these

steps, like adding hours to stretch existing work forces.

The prospect of stronger economic growth, with healthier consumer spending

as more Americans find work, helped to lift the stock market to new highs . On
Thursday, the Dow Jones industrial average closed above 17,000 for the first time, while the Standard &
Poors 500-stock index recorded a new high and the tech-heavy Nasdaq hit its highest level since the go-go
days of 2000.

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ImpactAerospace

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Aerospace Module
Plastics key to civilian and military aerospace
SPI 2014 [Plastics Conquers Aerospace
http://www.plasticsindustry.org/AboutPlastics/content.cfm?
ItemNumber=633&navItemNumber=1118]

aeronautical
engineering has made quantum leaps, with plastics playing a major role in
both pragmatic improvements and dramatic advances. From aircraft and
missiles to satellites and space shuttles, plastic components and products and plastic
materials have been essential enablers of the most significant developments in
civilian air travel, military air power and space exploration . Recall the images of the
During the last half of the 20th century and continuing in the 21st century,

astronauts standing on the surface of the moon, looking back at earth through transparent visors built into
strong helmets, and both molded of plastic the best choice for the job.
Fast-forward to the current day and Boeing's new 787 Dreamliner, nicknamed the plastic airliner, making
its maiden flight, then completing its first commercial routes in late 2011. The plane's fuselage is made of
a new generation of reinforced composite plastic panels, marking a new era in commercial aircraft

Plastic excels here for the same reasons it excels in automobiles, bicycles, and ski
an optimum combination of strength, design flexibility, ease of
manufacturing, and yet light in weight . It is the right stuff because it is such remarkable
production.
boots,

stuff.
From Necessity to Invention
World War II accelerated the entry of plastics into aerospace as it did to all modes of transportation. More
traditional materials were scarce and almost always more expensive, heavier, and harder to design and
manufacture, and even more important, the possible applications of plastics were already envisioned. Vinyl
materials became a major substitute for scarce rubber in airplane fuel-tank linings and fliers' boots.
Virtually transparent to electromagnetic waves, the plastic used in radomes covering radar installations
maximized transmission such that the material later was acknowledged as having significantly advanced
the nascent radar technology.
Plastic materials can be flexible enough to withstand helicopter vibration but rigid enough to ensure
safety.

They can be transparent for easy observation, shatter resistant, and

even offer ballistic protection. Their inherent ability to be simultaneously lightweight and strong
was compelling in the 1970s, when the oil crisis compelled aerospace companies to create more fuelefficient aircraft. The need for more efficient engines, improved aerodynamics, and less weight brought
plastics to the forefront, and their usage has continued to grow. The heavier the vehicle plane, car, truck,
or spacecraft the more fuel it needs to travel a given distance. The weight-to-fuel impact for jetliners is
extreme. A one-pound weight reduction will mean tens and even hundreds of thousands of dollars in
lifetime fuel savings, and plastic composites in the Boeing 787 reduced the total plane weight by about 20
percent, or thousands of pounds.

And owing
to their oft-referenced "combination of properties," plastics can be less
expensive to manufacture, more resistant to wear, need less upkeep, and be
easier to repair than other heavier materials. New uses continue to be found
for plastic materials in aerospace, and new plastic materials continue to be
created that further expand the range of possibilities.
Plastics also save fuel and money because their smooth contours improve aerodynamics.

Aerospace key to heg

Lexington Institute 13

[Public policy think tank, America Is A Superpower Because It Is An Air

Power, 1/24, http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articleview/release/142016/air-power-makes-america-a-superpower.html]

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There is no question

PLASTICS DA

that

the United States has the best military in

the world . The United States is unique in its ability to project

military power to multiple regions of the world simultaneously, conduct
multiple major combined and joint operations at a time and both defend the homeland and
provide ongoing support to civil agencies. Europe, which spends about sixty percent of the U.S. defense budget
and actually has more men and women in uniform , was unable without
significant U.S. support to conduct a single, modest campaign in
Libya. The U.S. military continues to set the world standard with respect to most major military systems: nuclearpowered aircraft carriers, large deck amphibious warfare ships, nuclear attack submarines, strategic bombers, fifthgeneration fighters, air and missile defenses, tanks and armored fighting vehicles and space and airborne ISR. Even
though we dont talk much about it the militarys cyber warfare capabilities are truly impressive. While the U.S. has the
best ground, naval and amphibious forces in the world,

one thing makes it a 21st Century

superpower: its dominance as an air power. The United States alone

is capable of deploying its aerial assets anywhere in the world. U.S. air
power can hold at risk any target set in any country and can do so from multiple
directions. The U.S. Air Force is the only one capable of delivering
specially-designed conventional bombs large enough to destroy
deeply buried and hardened structures. Over the past two decades, the
U.S. military has repeatedly demonstrated that it can destroy an
adversarys air force and air defenses in a matter of weeks . After that, hostile
ground units were toast. The ability to rapidly seize control of the
air means that no soldier has died in an air attack since 1953 . Over a
decade of wars, American air power from the land and sea provided continual
responsive fire support for tactical units on the ground. Other nations have fighters and bombers,
although Americas are the best . The U.S. also has the largest and most
capable fleets of air transports, refueling aircraft and airborne ISR
assets in the world. During Operation Iraqi Freedom, the Air Force flew soldiers and heavy armor deep into Iraq to
seize a critical target, the Haditha Dam. Since 2001, the Air Force has maintained a continuous air bridge to Afghanistan,

The
U.S. Navy has a fleet of fixed wing transports, the C-2 Greyhounds, specifically
for the purpose of moving parts and people to and from its aircraft
carriers. The United States has crafted an ISR and strategic warning
capability based on a sophisticated array of satellites, manned
platforms and unmanned aerial systems. Dominant air power is
about much more than just platforms and weapons. It requires also
the trained people and processes to plan and manage air operations ,
more than 8,000 miles from CONUS. U.S. C-17 transports are today flying French troops and equipment into Mali.

process, exploit and disseminate intelligence, identify targets and plan attacks, move supplies and route transports and

The U.S. had to send hundreds of targeteers

to NATO to support the Libyan operation. Over decades, the U.S. military
has developed an unequalled training establishment and set of
repair and maintain complex systems.

ranges that ensure the highest quality pilots and other personnel.
Finally, the U.S. is the dominant air power in the world because of its aerospace industrial base. Whether it is designing
and producing fifth-generation fighters such as the F-22 and F-35, providing an advanced tanker like the new KC-46 or
inventing high-flying unmanned aerial systems like the Global Hawk, the U.S. aerospace industry continues to set the bar.
In addition, the private and public parts of the aerospace industrial base, often working together based on collaborative
arrangements such as performance-based logistics contracts, is able to move aircraft, weapons and systems through the
nationwide system of depots, Air Logistics Centers and other facilities at a rate unmatched by any other nation. The ability
to rapidly repair or overhaul aircraft is itself a force multiplier, providing more aircraft on the flight line to support the
warfighters.

The U.S. military can go where it is ordered, respond rapidly

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to the crisis of the moment, move men, equipment and supplies

around the world and dominate any place on the face of the earth
as long as it desires because it is dominant in the air. As the Pentagon, Congress
and the White House struggle with budget issues that could well require deep cuts to the military, they would be well
advised to remember that

it is air dominance that enables this country to

remain a superpower .

Heg Decline Causes Extinction

Thomas P.M. Barnett, chief analyst, Wikistrat, The New Rules: Leadership
Fatigue Puts U.S. and Globalization, at Crossroads, WORLD POLITICS REVIEW,
3711, www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rulesleadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads
Events in Libya are a further reminder for Americans that we stand at a crossroads in our
continuing evolution as the world's sole full-service superpower. Unfortunately, we are
increasingly seeking change without cost, and shirking from risk because we are tired of the responsibility.
We don't know who we are anymore, and our president is a big part of that problem. Instead of leading us,
he explains to us. Barack Obama would have us believe that he is practicing strategic patience. But many
experts and ordinary citizens alike have concluded that he is actually beset by strategic incoherence -- in
effect, a man overmatched by the job. It is worth first examining the larger picture: We live in a time of
arguably the greatest structural change in the global order yet endured, with this historical moment's most
amazing feature being its relative and absolute lack of mass violence. That is something to consider when
Americans contemplate military intervention in Libya, because if we do take the step to prevent largerscale killing by engaging in some killing of our own, we will not be adding to some fantastically imagined
global death count stemming from the ongoing "megalomania" and "evil" of American "empire." We'll be
engaging in the same sort of system-administering activity that has marked our stunningly successful
stewardship of global order since World War II. Let me be more blunt: As the guardian of globalization ,

the U.S. military has been the greatest force for peace the world has
ever known. Had America been removed from the global dynamics
that governed the 20th century, the mass murder never would have ended. Indeed, it's entirely

there would now be no identifiable human civilization left, once

nuclear weapons entered the killing equation. But the world did not keep
sliding down that path of perpetual war. Instead, America stepped up and
changed everything by ushering in our now-perpetual great-power peace.
We introduced the international liberal trade order known as globalization and played loyal
Leviathan over its spread. What resulted was the collapse of empires, an explosion of
democracy, the persistent spread of human rights, the liberation of women, the doubling of
conceivable

life expectancy, a roughly 10-fold increase in adjusted global GDP and a profound and persistent reduction
in battle deaths from state-based conflicts. That is what American "hubris" actually delivered. Please
remember that the next time some TV pundit sells you the image of "unbridled" American military power
as the cause of global disorder instead of its cure. With self-deprecation bordering on self-loathing, we now
imagine a post-American world that is anything but. Just watch who scatters and who steps up as the
Facebook revolutions erupt across the Arab world. While we might imagine ourselves the status quo power,
we remain the world's most vigorously revisionist force. As for the sheer "evil" that is our military-industrial
complex, again, let's examine what the world looked like before that establishment reared its ugly head.
The last great period of global structural change was the first half of the 20th century, a period that saw a
death toll of about 100 million across two world wars. That comes to an average of 2 million deaths a year
in a world of approximately 2 billion souls. Today, with far more comprehensive worldwide reporting,
researchers report an average of less than 100,000 battle deaths annually in a world fast approaching 7

calculations suggest a 90 percent absolute drop

99 percent relative drop in deaths due to war. We are clearly headed
for a world order characterized by multipolarity, something the American-birthed
system was designed to both encourage and accommodate. But given how things turned out the last
time we collectively faced such a fluid structure, we would do well to keep U.S. power ,
in all of its forms, deeply embedded in the geometry to come. To continue the historical survey,
billion people. Though admittedly crude, these
and a

after salvaging Western Europe from its half-century of civil war, the U.S. emerged as the progenitor of a
new, far more just form of globalization -- one based on actual free trade rather than colonialism. America

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then successfully replicated globalization further in East Asia over the second half of the 20th century,
setting the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

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Plastics k2 Aerospace
Plastics key to US military domination of air, space, and
sea
SPI 2005 [Plastics in aerospace: the right stuff

http://www.theiapdmagazine.com/pdf/magazine-archives/224.pdf
During the past 50 years, aeronautics technology has soared, with plastics
playing a major role in both pragmatic improvements and dramatic
advances . In aircraft, missiles, satellites and shuttles, plastics and
plastic materials have enhanced and sped significant developments
in military air power and space exploration and civilian air travel. For many of the
same reasons that make them the materials of choice for such a variety of products
that benefit our lives, plastics are the right stuff in aerospace. From necessity to invention World
War II accelerated the entry of plastics into aerospace both because other materials were scarce and
because the possibilities for the materials use were already being envisioned. During the war years, vinyl
resins became a major substitute for rubber in Air Corps applications such as fuel-tank linings and fliers
boots. Plastics also began to be appreciated as first-choice materials. Virtually transparent to
electromagnetic waves, the plastic used in radomes, which housed radar installations, allowed the waves
to pass through with minimal loss, maximizing transmission to night-flying bombers. Its introduction was

The development of
plastics that literally could take the heat associated with many
aerospace applications and the launching of the U.S. space program
spurred additional interest and extensive research in plastics for
flight. Soon, plastic materials were common in aerospace for everything from interior trim in airplanes
hailed as having significantly advanced the technology of airborne radar.

to nose cones for missiles. New words became familiar as solid fuel boosters on rockets and ablative
shields for reentry came to rely on plastic materials. And when man landed on the moon, so did plastics.
The diversity of plastics and plastic-composite materials
provides the characteristics required for a wide variety of aerospace
needs. Plastic materials can be flexible enough to withstand helicopter vibration but rigid enough to

Taking off

ensure safe cargo. They can be transparent for easy observation, shatter resistant and offer ballistic
protection. And, significantly, they can be both lightweight and strong. In the 1970s, the oil crisis forced
aerospace companies to design aircraft that used less fuel. This meant more efficient engines, improved
aerodynamics and reduced aircraft weight. It also meant a role for plastics. Today, jet engine
manufacturers increasingly use plastics for the same reasons: reliability, efficiency, fuel savings and
improved performance. The heavier the vehicle, the more fuel it takes to power it. For jetliners, the
weight-to-fuel impact is tremendous. Just a one-pound reduction in weight translates into $1,000 in lifetime
fuel savings. As composite engines can offer weight reductions of some 300 pounds over other materials,
savings can be enormous. Plastics also save fuel and money because their smooth contours improve
aerodynamics. And plastics, which are less expensive to manufacture than heavier materials, produce
parts that are more resistant to wear, require less upkeep and are easier to repair. In the structures,
interiors and functional parts of air and space craft, new applications continue to be found for plastic
materials, and new plastic materials continue to be created to meet aerospace needs. A show of force
Plastic-composite materials are especially prevalent in todays sophisticated helicopters and other rotor
craft. For these aircraft, the toughness, flexibility, crashworthiness and cost savings of plastic materials
have motivated their large-scale use, both structurally and mechanically. These vehicles showcase how
plastics can be tailored to fit a variety of needs, including opposing ones. Helicopters, which vibrate a
great deal, can be called on to carry heavy payloads of equipment and personnel. The design of these
vehicles calls for one set of materials that can compensate for the stresses caused by vibration and
another that is stiff enough to hold up under a heavy payload. Plastics can do both, and more. In military
applications of rotor craft, plastics have been on the front lines of innovation. A new entry into the field,
the prototype X-wing craft, sports sophisticated plastic-composite wings that act as a rotor during takeoff
and landing but lock into a set position once in the air. The stresses inflicted on such a craft are numerous
and varied. Only stiff yet light composites can stand up to them. Though developed for military purposes,
the X-wing is believed to have potential as a commercial shuttle and to be jet-powered. Other modern
military rotor vehicles including vertical takeoff aircraft, a gunship and a minesweeper rely heavily on

Plastics also are being, or are expected

used extensively for other innovative military craft. One

plastic materials to accomplish their specialized tasks.

to be,

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materials near invisibility to radar makes it indispensable for

stealth aircraft, which designers hope to make undetectable to
infrared and optical spotters. And plastic fibers could play a significant
role in a proposed blimp that would warn naval forces of surfaceskimming missiles. Such vehicles are also being considered for nonmilitary use in fields such as
forestry and scientific observation. Up to the challenge The air and space craft of the
next century increasingly will be made of plastics. Small composite planes will
flourish, and commercial aircraft will soar with plastic wings and tails. The military will
continue to depend on plastics to create ever lighter aircraft with
fewer parts and the ability to evade detection. The Stealth Bomber, for example,
uses composites of graphite-like substances mixed with resins to soak up radar energy and transform it to
heat, rather than reflect it. (In a more down-to-earth application, the U.S. Army is using a composite heavy-

New aircraft designs with

rear-mounted engines will rely on plastics to take the stress and
better allocate weight. Still lighter materials will increase the crafts capacities for more
sophisticated avionics and other on-board systems. And plastics are expected to answer
many of NASAs calls for materials to create and perfect highperformance supersonic/hypersonic aircraft, nuclear space power
systems and space stations.
assault bridge that spans 106 feet, supports 70 tons and folds.)

Plastic key no other alternative will work and fail in the

already well developed sector key to aerospace creation
Michael R. Favaloro, 2014(Ticona Technical Marketing Manager, Fortron PPS Composites, Americas Total
inc. http://www.totalplastics.com/news/read/92)

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Aerospace is a great industry to monitor for trends: What developments today might we be able to translate into
innovations in other industries tomorrow, especially those involving materials? One material trend

that is revolutionizing the aerospace industry in terms of reducing

vehicle weight and achieving fuel savings is especially interesting.
Just look at the evolution of lightweight plastic and composite
materials in commercial aerospace vehicles. In 1982, 8 percent of the Airbus A130
consisted of composites. Twenty years later, the use of composites in the Airbus A380 rose to 25 percent. In the
next generation of aircrafts Airbus A350 will be 53 percent composite and Boeing 787 will be more than 50
percent composite. As a material supplier, Ticona has helped this exciting material revolution unfold. Weve
worked with various customers for more than a decade on the development of applications that use Fortron
polyphenylene sulfide (PPS) as a composite matrix, starting with the Airbus series in early 2000. Composites are
conquering traditional metal domains throughout the aircraft. Theyve reached such an advanced stage of
development that some complex components would actually be impossible to produce in metal. Even if these
parts could be made in metal, the costs would be prohibitive. Today, the vast majority of composite materials for
aerospace are based on thermoset materials, especially in the United States. However, thermoplastic composites
have several key advantages over thermoset composites. They have been used for several years in Europe.
Some thermoplastic composite parts include the fixed wing leading edge, keel beams and other components.
For the most part, though, exterior aerospace components in Europe are based on thermoset composites, and in
the United States there is yet to be one thermoplastic based composite in large commercial aircraft exterior
structures. The focus on thermosets by the commercial aerospace composites industry exists for a number of
reasons: Thermoset composites have a successful track record dating back to the 60s, making the knowledge
database very mature. Substantial investments in thermoset composites

have been made in the United States for design tools, material
property databases, capital equipment, employee training and test
methodologies making a mature material value chain. Conversion
to alternate materials and processes require substantial
reinvestment and requalification costs as well as retraining of
engineering and manufacturing personnel. Since thermoset
composite processes and materials are mature, cost and weight
reduction associated with design optimizations are less likely to
continue. As a result, it becomes difficult to meet the needs of an
evolving aerospace environment with fixed structural costs . Reinforced
thermoplastic composites offer the aerospace industry opportunities to achieve weight and cost savings as well
as a green solution vs. thermosets. Thermoplastic vs. Thermoset A rational justification can be made for using
higher-cost thermoplastic composites instead of thermoset composites in aerospace applications. From a
material side, thermosets are cross-linked when heated and cannot be re-melted or re-formed, while
thermoplastics are melt processable polymers that provide a more tailorable and more forgiving process. For
example, thermoplastics are heated, melted or softened, reshaped, and then cooled to a final hardened shaped,
making them easy to re-work and repair. Thermoset cure also takes time, sometimes hours, while thermoplastic
heating to melt takes a fraction of the comparable time and energy. The raw materials in

thermoplastics also have a near infinite shelf life and cost less to
store than thermosets, which have a typical shelf life of less than six
months and require costly refrigeration, tight schedule control of
material receipt and conversion to final form. In addition,
thermoplastics: Are typically four-times tougher than comparable thermosets, which results in more
impact resistance and damage tolerance. Are relatively insensitive to aircraft fluids and chemical attack, and,
with one exception, insensitive to moisture. Offer substantial reductions in flammability, smoke and toxicity
performance, which is of major importance in interior components for man-rated aircraft. From a processing
standpoint, some of the existing and expensive equipment used by the industry to process thermoset
composites, such as autoclaves, could be used for thermoplastic processing. However, the relatively slow and
inefficient process times required for heat up and cool down would reduce process and cost efficiency options
associated with thermoplastics. Typically, thermoplastics are heated, formed and cooled rapidly, while
thermosets must be held at temperature for tens of minutes or hours to achieve cure. The net result is a
significant savings in process energy cost for thermoplastic composites. Thermoplastic processes also
eliminate material bagging as well as in-line consolidation techniques, kitting and debulking steps and
equipment. The shop floor space, equipment costs, tooling costs, and labor costs for all of these auxiliary
processes are eliminated with a conversion from thermosets to thermoplastics. Thermoplastics and their
associated processing innovations eliminate the need for autoclave processing, which in turn reduces capital
cost, floor space requirements and processing bottleneck issues. As a green solution, the processing of
thermoplastics vs. thermosets cannot be overstated. Thermoplastics can, by definition, be fully recycled, and
little to no volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are released during processing. Process scrap can also be

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reduced substantially with existing fiber placement technology. Based on the reduced cycle time at temperature,
the process energy used for thermoplastic composites is a fraction of the comparable process energy for
thermoset composites, resulting in a lower carbon footprint. Three thermoplastics are available for use by the
aerospace industry: Polyether Ether Ketone (PEEK) The best known and most important representative hightemperature-resistant thermoplastics melting point is 335C (635F) are PEEKs. Applied in the industry for
more than 20 years, it offers the most extensive commercially available data, and is considered the baseline for
aerospace grade thermoplastic composites. PEEKs are resistant to virtually all organic and inorganic
chemicals. They are also resistant to hydrolysis up to about 280C

(536F). On the other hand, they are not resistant to ultra-violet

(UV) radiation, concentrated nitric acid, general acid-oxidizing
conditions and some halogenated hydrocarbons. There are several suppliers of
PEEK resin in the industry but it is one of the most expensive engineering plastics. Polyetherimide (PEI) This
high-performance thermoplastic belongs to the high-temperature-resistant plastics group up to about 200C
(392F). It is inherently flame-retardant with low smoke development. It is used as a composite matrix in
numerous aircraft interior structures, including floor panels, pressure bulkheads, and other components.
Unfortunately, PEI is susceptible to attack by anti-icing fluids, which prevents extensive use in aircraft exterior
applications. Even in the unreinforced state, it has very high strength, which can be further increased by the
addition of glass or carbon fibers. PEI has high dielectric strength, is resistant to hydrolysis and very resistant to
UV and gamma rays. Polyphenylene Sulfide (PPS) This polymer is by far the lowest cost of the three
thermoplastics available for use by the aerospace industry. Successful application of PPScomposites in aircraft
include the undercarriage door for the Fokker 50, fixed wing leading edges for the Airbus A340 and A380, keel
beams, brackets and others. Not only is this high-performance thermoplastic

extremely strong, rigid and tough, it offers inherent flame

resistance, high heat resistance with continuous service at
temperatures well above 200C (392F). It also has very good
chemical and oxidation resistance, minimal water absorption, good
electrical properties, low creep and excellent mechanical properties.
Dynamic creep compliance characterization of the semi-crystalline PPS shows comparable structural
performance to the higher temperature amorphous polyether imide. Linear PPS is the preferred matrix approach,
since it is much tougher than the branched form of the polymer. These three candidate resins are finding
increased use in commercial aerospace applications. While the long-term investment into the higher
performance PEEK material has resulted in a good database and flight history of the material, investments
continue to be made in the both the PEI and PPS databases and processes, which is leading to their increased
use as their cost effectiveness becomes documented. As these resins receive more industry acceptance, the
cost reduction curves for all composite materials is expected to improve. Next month well look at new
composite applications that are conquering traditional metal domains throughout the aircraft

Plastics are key to aircraft manufacturing innovation

Victrex 14 (Victrex.plc

http://www.victrex.com/en/industries/aerospace/aerospace.php0
Aerospace engineers want to specify materials that can withstand
harsh environments, reduce manufacturing costs and offer
processing flexibility. As a lightweight solution, polymers have
successfully replaced metals and traditional composites due to their
mechanical strength, creep and corrosion resistance, improved flame and
smoke properties, and ease of fabrication into tight tolerance parts.engineering plastics
well-suited for exterior applications where contact occurs with atmospheric particulates and
chemicals. Interior applications demand the durability, flammability and low smoke toxicity
properties of Victrexs high performance polymers. all of these polymeric

advantages translate to improved efficiencies both in terms of

aircraft weight, but also ease of manufacturing by combining several
components into a single part with better uniformity . Lightweight
components mean easier assembly for manufacturers and overall reductions in aircraft
operating cos

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Aerospace k2 Heg
Aerospace competiveness is the vital internal link to U.S.
global hegemony
Walker et al, 02- Chair of the Commission on the Futureof the United States
Aerospace Industry Commissioners (Robert, Final
Report of the Commission on the Future of the United States Aerospace
Industry Commissioners, November,
http://www.trade.gov/td/aerospace/aerospacecommission/AeroCommissionFin
alReport.pdf )
In order to defend America and project power, the nation needs the ability to
move manpower, materiel, intelligence information and
precision weaponry swiftly to any point around the globe, when needed. This has
been, and will continue to be, a mainstay of our national security strategy. The events of September 11,
2001 dramatically demonstrated the extent of our national reliance on aerospace capabilities and related
military contributions to homeland security. Combat air patrols swept the skies; satellites supported realtime communications for emergency responders, imagery for recovery, and intelligence on terrorist

activities; and the security and protection of key government officials was enabled by timely air transport .

As recent events in Afghanistan and Kosovo show, the power generated by

our nations aerospace capabilities is anand perhaps the essential ingredient in
force projection and expeditionary operations . In both places, at the outset of the crisis,
satellites and reconnaissance aircraft, some unmanned, provided critical strategic and tactical intelligence

Space-borne intelligence, command, control and

communications assets permitted the rapid targeting of key enemy positions
and facilities. Airlifters and tankers brought personnel, materiel, and aircraft
to critical locations .And aerial bombardment, with precision weapons and
cruise missiles, often aided by the Global Positioning System (GPS) and the
Predator unmanned vehicle, destroyed enemy forces. Aircraft carriers and
their aircraft also played key roles in both conflicts. Todays military
aerospace capabilities are indeed robust, but at significant risk. They rely on
platforms and an industrial base measured in both human capital and physical
to our national leadership.

facilitiesthat are aging and increasingly inadequate . Consider just a few of the issues: Much of our
capability to defend America and project power depends on satellites . Assured reliable access to space is
a critical enabler of this capability. As recently as 1998, the key to near- and mid-term space access was
the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle(EELV), a development project of Boeing, Lockheed Martin and the
U. S. Air Force. EELV drew primarily on commercial demand to close the business case for two new
launchers, with the U.S. government essentially buying launches at the margin. In this model, each
company partner made significant investments of corporate funds in vehicle development and
infrastructure, reducing the overall need for government investment. Today, however, worldwide demand
for commercial satellite launch has dropped essentially to nothingand is not expected to rise for a
decade or morewhile the number of available launch platforms worldwide has proliferated . Today,
therefore, the business case for EELV simply does not close, and reliance on the economics of a
commercially-driven market is unsustainable . A new strategy for assured access to space must be found.

The U.S. needs unrestricted access to space for civil, commercial, and
military applications .Our satellite systems will become increasingly
important to military operations as todays information revolution, the socalled revolution in military affairs, continues, while at the same time
satellites will become increasingly vulnerable to attack as the century
proceeds. To preserve critical satellite net-works, the nation will almost
certainly need the capability to launch replacement satellites quickly after an
attack. One of the key enablers for launch on demand is reusable space launch, and yet within the last

year all work has been stopped on the X-33 and X-34 reusable launch programs The challenge for the
defense industrial base is to have the capability to build the base force structure, support contingencyrelated surges, provide production capacity that can increase faster than any new emerging global threat

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can build up its capacity, and provide an appropriate return to shareholders. But the motivation of
government and industry are different. This is a prime detraction for wanting to form government-industry
partnerships. Industry prioritizes investments toward near-term, high-return, and high-dollar programs that
make for a sound business case for them. Government, on the other hand, wants to prioritize investment
to ensure a continuing capability to meet any new threat to the nation. This need is cyclical and difficult for
businesses to sustain during periods of government inactivity. Based on the cyclic nature of demand, the
increasing cost/complexity of new systems, and the slow pace of defense modernization, aerospace
companies are losing market advantages and the sector is contracting. Twenty-two years ago, todays Big
5 in aerospace were 75 separate companies, as depicted by the historical chart of industry consolidation

Tactical combat aircraft have been a key component of

Americas air forces. Today, three tactical aircraft programs continue: the F/A18E/F (in production), the F/A-22 (in a late stage of test and evaluation), and the F-35 Joint Strike
shown in Chapter 7.

Fighter (just moving into system design and development). Because of the recentness of these programs,
there are robust design teams in existence. But all of the initial design work on all three programs will be
completed by 2008.

If the nation were to conclude, as it very well may, that a new

manned tactical aircraft needs to be fielded in the middle of this century,
where will we find the experienced design teams required to design and build
it, if the design process is in fact gapped for 20 years or more?

Strong air power is uniquely key to U.S. air deterrence

capability- airplanes move quickly and have supreme
power over other forces
Kak 01 (Kapil Kak, Former Deputy Director of IDSA, A Century of Air Power: Lessons and
Pointers, Strategic Analysis: A Monthly Journal of the IDSA, 03/01. Ciao-Net] DM)

While joint combat power can provide deterrence through denial, in

the punishment quotient there are major variations. In the 'denial'
mode, land power is overwhelmingly superior, but it has very limited
capacity to deter through punishment except by destruction of the
adversary's land forces which is a risky proposition in a situation of
nuclear overhang. Disengagement and escalation control is also beset with problems. On the
other hand, naval power can provide substantive capabilities for deterrence both for denial and
punishment but its capabilities are confined to the maritime environment that may be precluded by a
conflict on our Northern/Eastern land borders. In contrast, combat air power inherently possesses
attributes, which invest it with capabilities for deterrence through denial as also punishment .

Aircraft
can fly across national boundaries and geographical barriers to hit
targets deep inside enemy territory. Highly calibrated escalation as
well as disengagement control is feasible with air power and in a
limited war this is a great asset to a defence planner. But this potent option

for war prevention does not come cheap just as there is a distinct global trend towards prioritisation for air
and naval

The necessity, therefore, to arrest the

decade-long trend of vastly reduced funding for modernisation of
combat power thus becomes pressing. High technology weapon
system assets, airborne warning and control systems (AWACS), inflight refuellers, advanced sensor technologies (space and airborne
platform based) for reconnaissance, surveillance and target
acquisition (RSTA), C4I2 systems, precision guided munitions (PGMs)
and long range strike capabilities would need to be inducted by us
without further delay. This capability-enhancement would improve effectiveness of India's air
power. China is the foremost example.

power and enable it to serve as the primary instrument for conventional deterrence as well as for finely
calibrated punitive strikes. This is particularly important because coercive and deterrent diplomacy are

Command of the air or air

superiority, the raison d'tre of the counter air campaign has often
not only generated inter- service controversy but as a key doctrinal
likely to assume greater importance in the coming decades.

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component remained little appreciated. The overall strategy is to seize the initiative,
carry the war into enemy territory, neutralise air power, and establish control of the air to provide freedom
of action for our surface forces. Such an air offensive is aimed not only to further land, maritime and other
operations, but also for the very successful pursuit of overall war aims and defence strategy.

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Air power key to military dominance

Hornitschek 06
(Michael J. Hornitschek, Lt Col, USAF, 2/17/2006, WAR WITHOUT OIL: A CATALYST FOR TRUE
TRANSFORMATION, http://www.nps.edu/cebrowski/Docs/sustainability/other

%20articles/War%20Without%20Oil.pdf] DM)

A review of the last 60 years of American military doctrine reveals a heavy

emphasis on airpower as either a stand-alone strategic instrument or as a complement to ground
forces that can gain, achieve, and then exploit air superiority to maximize
terrestrial opportunities. Airpower leverages inherent surprise,
maneuverability, mobility, and the ability to mass firepower to overwhelm an
enemy and reduce risk to ones own forces. This American-perfected and
synergistic air-land dominance comes at great energy cost , and by studying the
DESC FY04 Fact Book one can identify some force structure vulnerabilities that would
quickly manifest themselves should the U.S. military ever find itself in a
strategically or operationally constrained petroleum environment. The first clue
can be found in the breakdown of total fuels used in DoD. Accounting for $5B of the Departments $437B
FY04 budget, DESC procured 134M barrels of liquid fuel (370,000 barrels/day), of which 75 percent or
101M barrels were some form of aviation fuel (JP-4, JP-5, JP-8, or Jet A).51 By combining the Air Forces
$2,841M bill with the $722M JP-5 portion of the Navys $1,627M bill53, and other smaller Army and USMC
amounts, Table 3 reveals that in fact 75 percent of DoDs petroleum purchases went to fuel aircraft and
some ships, with the Air Force accounting for 57 percent of the total DoD bill in FY04.54 Deeper analysis
reveals that of the Air Forces $2.8B aviation fuel bill, 54 percent went to mobility air forces, 38 percent
went to combat air forces, and the remaining 8 percent was consumed by aircrew training and other
aviation operations.55 The fact that 8 of 10 entries on DESCs list of Top Ten Customers for FY04 are air

air mobility (airlift and air refueling) is the

single most petroleum-intense activity within DoD, making focused logistics
and dominant maneuver the most energy-vulnerable dimensions within DoDs
vision of full spectrum dominance for Joint Vision 2025
mobility bases56 seemingly confirms that

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Heg Impact Extension

Heg solves global nuclear wars
Arbatov 7 (Alexei, Member Russian Academy of Sciences and Editor
Russia in Global Affairs, Is a New Cold War Imminent?, Russia in Global
Affairs, 5(3), July / September,
http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/numbers/20/1130.html)
However, the low probability of a new Cold War and the collapse of American unipolarity (as a
political doctrine, if not in reality) cannot be a cause for complacency. Multipolarity, existing objectively at
various levels and interdependently, holds many difficulties and threats. For example, if the RussiaNATO confrontation persists, it can do much damage to both parties and international security. Or,
alternatively, if Kosovo secedes from Serbia, this may provoke similar processes in Abkhazia, South Ossetia
and Transdniestria, and involve Russia in armed conflicts with Georgia and Moldova, two countries that are
supported by NATO. Another flash point involves Ukraine. In the event of Kievs sudden admission into the
North Atlantic Alliance (recently sanctioned by the U.S. Congress), such a move may divide Ukraine and
provoke mass disorders there, thus making it difficult for Russia and the West to refrain from interfering.
Meanwhile, U.S. plans to build a missile defense system in Central and Eastern Europe may cause Russia to
withdraw from the INF Treaty and resume programs for producing intermediate-range missiles. Washington
may respond by deploying similar missiles in Europe, which would dramatically increase the vulnerability
of Russias strategic forces and their control and warning systems. This could make the stage for nuclear
confrontation even tenser. Other centers of power would immediately derive benefit from the growing
Russia-West standoff, using it in their own interests. China would receive an opportunity to occupy even
more advantageous positions in its economic and political relations with Russia, the U.S. and Japan, and
would consolidate its influence in Central and South Asia and the Persian Gulf region. India, Pakistan,
member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and some exalted regimes in Latin
America would hardly miss their chance, either. A multipolar world that is not moving toward nuclear
disarmament is a world of an expanding Nuclear Club. While Russia and the West continue to argue with
each other, states that are capable of developing nuclear weapons of their own will jump at the

The probability of nuclear weapons being used in a regional conflict will

increase significantly . International Islamic extremism and terrorism will increase

opportunity.

dramatically; this threat represents the reverse side of globalization. The situation in

Afghanistan ,

Central Asia , the Middle East , and North and East Africa will further destabilize.
The wave of militant separatism, trans-border crime and terrorism will also infiltrate Western Europe,
Russia, the U.S., and other countries. The surviving

disarmament treaties (the

N on- P roliferation

T reaty, the C onventional Armed F orces in E urope Treaty, and the C omprehensive Nuclear T est B an
T reaty)

will collapse. In a worst-case scenario, there is the chance that an adventuresome regime

will initiate a missile launch against territories or space satellites of one or several great
powers

with a view to

triggering

an exchange of

nuclear strikes between them .

Another high probability is the threat of a terrorist act with the use of a nuclear device in one or several
major capitals of the world.

American hegemony is necessary to prevent a

multitude of conflicts in every region of the world a
multipolar world would not solve global problems, but
would only increase the likelihood of war
Kagan 7 [Robert, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace and transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund,
End of Dreams, Return of History, 6-19,

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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/07/end_of_dreams_return_of_hi
stor.html]
The jostling for status and influence among these ambitious nations and would-be nations is a second

Nationalism in all its forms

is back, if it ever went away, and so is international competition for power, influence, honor, and
status. American predominance prevents these rivalries from
intensifying -- its regional as well as its global predominance. Were the United States to diminish its
influence in the regions where it is currently the strongest power, the other nations would
settle disputes as great and lesser powers have done in the past: sometimes through diplomacy
and accommodation but often through confrontation and wars of varying scope,
intensity, and destructiveness. One novel aspect of such a multipolar world is that most of these
powers would possess nuclear weapons. That could make wars between them less
defining feature of the new post-Cold War international system.

likely, or it could simply make them more catastrophic. It is easy but also dangerous to underestimate the
role the United States plays in providing a measure of stability in the world even as it also disrupts stability.
For instance, the United States is the dominant naval power everywhere, such that other nations cannot
compete with it even in their home waters. They either happily or grudgingly allow the United States Navy
to be the guarantor of international waterways and trade routes, of international access to markets and
raw materials such as oil. Even when the United States engages in a war, it is able to play its role as
guardian of the waterways. In a more genuinely multipolar world, however, it would not.
Nations would compete for naval dominance at least in their own regions and possibly beyond. Conflict
between nations would involve struggles on the oceans as well as on land.

Armed embargos, of

the kind used in World War i and other major conflicts, would disrupt trade flows in a way that is
now impossible. Such order as exists in the world rests not merely on the goodwill of peoples but on a
foundation provided by American power. Even the European Union, that great geopolitical miracle, owes its
founding to American power, for without it the European nations after World War ii would never have felt

Europe
's stability depends on the guarantee, however distant and one hopes unnecessary,
that the United States could step in to check any dangerous development on
the continent. In a genuinely multipolar world, that would not be possible
without renewing the danger of world war. People who believe greater equality
secure enough to reintegrate Germany. Most Europeans recoil at the thought, but even today

among nations would be preferable to the present American predominance often succumb to a basic

They believe the order the world enjoys today exists

independently of American power. They imagine that in a world where American power
was diminished, the aspects of international order that they like would remain in place. But that 's
not the way it works. International order does not rest on ideas and institutions. It is shaped by
logical fallacy.

configurations of power. The international order we know today reflects the distribution of power in the
world since World War ii, and especially since the end of the Cold War. A different configuration of power, a
multipolar world in which the poles were Russia, China, the United States, India, and Europe, would
produce its own kind of order, with different rules and norms reflecting the interests of the powerful states
that would have a hand in shaping it. Would that international order be an improvement? Perhaps for
Beijing and Moscow it would. But it is doubtful that it would suit the tastes of enlightenment liberals in the
United States and Europe. The current order, of course, is not only far from perfect but also offers no
guarantee against major conflict among the world 's great powers. Even under the umbrella of unipolarity,
regional conflicts involving the large powers may erupt. War could erupt between China and Taiwan and
draw in both the United States and Japan. War could erupt between Russia and Georgia, forcing the United
States and its European allies to decide whether to intervene or suffer the consequences of a Russian
victory. Conflict between India and Pakistan remains possible, as does conflict between Iran and Israel or
other Middle Eastern states. These, too, could draw in other great powers, including the United States.

conflicts may be unavoidable no matter what policies the United States pursues. But they are
more likely to erupt if the United States weakens or withdraws from its positions of
regional dominance. This is especially true in East Asia, where most nations agree that a
Such

reliable American power has a stabilizing and pacific effect on the region. That is certainly the view of most

even China, which seeks gradually to supplant the United States as the
faces the dilemma that an American withdrawal could
unleash an ambitious, independent, nationalist Japan. In Europe, too, the departure of
of China 's neighbors. But

dominant power in the region,

the United States from the scene -- even if it remained the world's most powerful nation -- could be
destabilizing. It

could tempt Russia to an even more overbearing and potentially forceful

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approach to unruly nations on its periphery. Although some realist theorists seem to imagine
that the disappearance of the Soviet Union put an end to the possibility of confrontation between Russia
and the West, and therefore to the need for a permanent American role in Europe, history suggests that
conflicts in Europe involving Russia are possible even without Soviet communism. If the United States
withdrew from Europe -- if it adopted what some call a strategy of "offshore

balancing" -- this
could in time increase the likelihood of conflict involving Russia and its
near neighbors, which could in turn draw the United States back in under unfavorable

circumstances. It is also optimistic to imagine that a retrenchment of the American position in the Middle

The vital
interest the United States has in access to oil and the role it plays in keeping access open to
other nations in Europe and Asia make it unlikely that American leaders could or
would stand back and hope for the best while the powers in the region battle
it out. Nor would a more "even-handed" policy toward Israel, which some see as the magic key to
unlocking peace, stability, and comity in the Middle East, obviate the need to come to Israel 's aid if its
security became threatened. That commitment, paired with the American commitment to protect
strategic oil supplies for most of the world, practically ensures a heavy American
military presence in the region, both on the seas and on the ground. The subtraction of American
East and the assumption of a more passive, "offshore" role would lead to greater stability there.

power from any region would not end conflict but would simply change the equation. In the Middle East,
competition for influence among powers both inside and outside the region has raged for at least two
centuries. The rise of Islamic fundamentalism doesn 't change this. It only adds a new and more
threatening dimension to the competition, which neither a sudden end to the conflict between Israel and

The alternative
to American predominance in the region is not balance and peace. It is
further competition. The region and the states within it remain relatively weak. A diminution of
the Palestinians nor an immediate American withdrawal from Iraq would change.

American influence would not be followed by a diminution of other external influences. One could expect
deeper involvement by both China and Russia, if only to secure their interests. 18 And one could also
expect the more powerful states of the region, particularly Iran, to expand and fill the vacuum. It is
doubtful that any American administration would voluntarily take actions that could shift the balance of
power in the Middle East further toward Russia, China, or Iran. The world hasn 't changed that much. An
American withdrawal from Iraq will not return things to "normal" or to a new kind of stability in the region.
It will produce a new instability, one likely to draw the United States back in again. The alternative to
American regional predominance in the Middle East and elsewhere is not a new regional stability.

In an

era of burgeoning nationalism, the future is likely to be one of

intensified competition among nations and nationalist movements. Difficult as it may
be to extend American predominance into the future, no one should imagine that a reduction of American
power or a retraction of American influence and global involvement will provide an easier path.

US hegemony is vital to preventing every major

impact. Decline will trigger a catastrophic collapse of
the global order. History is on our side
Thayer 6 [Professor of Defense and Strategic Studies @ Missouri State
University [Thayer, Bradley A., "In Defense of Primacy.," National Interest;
Nov/Dec2006 Issue 86, p32-37]
U.S. primacy--and the bandwagoning effect--has also given us extensive influence in
international politics, allowing the United States to shape the behavior of states

and international institutions. Such influence comes in many forms, one of which is America's ability to
create coalitions of like-minded states to free Kosovo, stabilize Afghanistan, invade Iraq or to stop
proliferation through the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI). Doing so allows the United States to operate
with allies outside of the UN, where it can be stymied by opponents. American-led wars in Kosovo,
Afghanistan and Iraq stand in contrast to the UN's inability to save the people of Darfur or even to conduct
any military campaign to realize the goals of its charter. The quiet effectiveness of the PSI in dismantling
Libya's WMD programs and unraveling the A. Q. Khan proliferation network are in sharp relief to the
typically toothless attempts by the UN to halt proliferation. You can count with one hand countries opposed
to the United States. They are the "Gang of Five": China, Cuba, Iran, North Korea and Venezuela. Of course,
countries like India, for example, do not agree with all policy choices made by the United States, such as
toward Iran, but New Delhi is friendly to Washington. Only the "Gang of Five" may be expected to
consistently resist the agenda and actions of the United States. China is clearly the most important of

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these states because it is a rising great power. But even Beijing is intimidated by the United States and
refrains from openly challenging U.S. power. China proclaims that it will, if necessary, resort to other
mechanisms of challenging the United States, including asymmetric strategies such as targeting
communication and intelligence satellites upon which the United States depends. But China may not be
confident those strategies would work, and so it is likely to refrain from testing the United States directly
for the foreseeable future because China's power benefits, as we shall see, from the international order
U.S. primacy creates. The other states are far weaker than China. For three of the "Gang of Five" cases-Venezuela, Iran, Cuba--it is an anti-U.S. regime that is the source of the problem; the country itself is not
intrinsically anti-American. Indeed, a change of regime in Caracas, Tehran or Havana could very well
reorient relations.

THROUGHOUT HISTORY, peace and stability have been great

benefits of an era where there was a dominant power--Rome, Britain or the

United States today. Scholars and statesmen have long recognized the irenic effect of power on the
anarchic world of international politics. Everything we think of when we consider the current international
order--free

trade, a robust monetary regime, increasing respect for human

rights, growing democratization--is directly linked to U.S. power.

Retrenchment proponents seem to think that the current system can be maintained without the current
amount of U.S. power behind it. In that they are dead wrong and need to be reminded of one of history's
most significant lessons: Appalling things happen when international orders collapse. The Dark Ages

Without U.S. power,

will end just as assuredly . As country and western

followed Rome's collapse. Hitler succeeded the order established at Versailles.

the liberal order created by the United States

great Ral Donner sang: "You don't know what you've got (until you lose it)." Consequently, it is important
to note what those good things are. In addition to ensuring the security of the United States and its allies,
American primacy within the international system causes many positive outcomes for Washington and the
world. The first has been a more peaceful world. During the Cold War, U.S. leadership reduced friction
among many states that were historical antagonists, most notably France and West Germany. Today,

American primacy helps keep a number of complicated relationships aligned-between Greece and Turkey, Israel and Egypt, South Korea and Japan,
India and Pakistan, Indonesia and Australia. This is not to say it fulfills Woodrow
Wilson's vision of ending all war. Wars still occur where Washington's interests are not seriously
threatened, such as in Darfur, but a

Pax Americana does reduce war's likelihood,

great power wars . Second, American power gives the

United States the ability to spread democracy and other elements of its ideology of liberalism:
particularly war's worst form:

Doing so is a source of much good for the countries concerned as well as the United States because, as
John Owen noted on these pages in the Spring 2006 issue, liberal democracies are more likely to align with
the United States and be sympathetic to the American worldview.( n3) So, spreading democracy helps
maintain U.S. primacy. In addition,

once states are governed democratically, the

likelihood of any type of conflict is significantly reduced . This is not because democracies do
not have clashing interests. Indeed they do. Rather, it is because they are more open, more transparent
and more likely to want to resolve things amicably in concurrence with U.S. leadership. And so, in general,
democratic states are good for their citizens as well as for advancing the interests of the United States.
Critics have faulted the Bush Administration for attempting to spread democracy in the Middle East,
labeling such aft effort a modern form of tilting at windmills. It is the obligation of Bush's critics to explain
why :democracy is good enough for Western states but not for the rest, and, one gathers from the
argument, should not even be attempted. Of course, whether democracy in the Middle East will have a
peaceful or stabilizing influence on America's interests in the short run is open to question. Perhaps
democratic Arab states would be more opposed to Israel, but nonetheless, their people would be better off.
The United States has brought democracy to Afghanistan, where 8.5 million Afghans, 40 percent of them
women, voted in a critical October 2004 election, even though remnant Taliban forces threatened them.
The first free elections were held in Iraq in January 2005. It was the military power of the United States that
put Iraq on the path to democracy. Washington fostered democratic governments in Europe, Latin America,
Asia and the Caucasus. Now even the Middle East is increasingly democratic. They may not yet look like
Western-style democracies, but democratic progress has been made in Algeria, Morocco, Lebanon, Iraq,
Kuwait, the Palestinian Authority and Egypt. By all accounts, the march of democracy has been impressive.
Third, along with the growth in the number of democratic states around the world has been the growth of
the global economy. With its allies, the United States has labored to create an economically liberal
worldwide network characterized by free trade and commerce, respect for international property rights,
and mobility of capital and labor markets. The economic stability and prosperity that stems from this
economic order is a global public good from which all states benefit, particularly the poorest states in the
Third World. The United States created this network not out of altruism but for the benefit and the
economic well-being of America. This economic order forces American industries to be competitive,
maximizes efficiencies and growth, and benefits defense as well because the size of the economy makes
the defense burden manageable. Economic spin-offs foster the development of military technology,
helping to ensure military prowess. Perhaps the greatest testament to the benefits of the economic

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network comes from Deepak Lal, a former Indian foreign service diplomat and researcher at the World
Bank, who started his career confident in the socialist ideology of post-independence India. Abandoning
the positions of his youth, Lal now recognizes that the only way to bring relief to desperately poor
countries of the Third World is through the adoption of free market economic policies and globalization,
which are facilitated through American primacy.( n4) As a witness to the failed alternative economic
systems, Lal is one of the strongest academic proponents of American primacy due to the economic

Decline risks American lashout

G. John Ikenberry, Professor, International Relations, Princeton
University, "Illusions of Empire," FOREIGN AFFAIRS, March/April 20 04, ASP.
Two implications follow from the United States' strange condition as "economically dependent and
politically useless." First, the United States is becoming a global economic predator, sustaining itself
through an increasingly fragile system of "tribute taking." It has lost the ability to couple its own economic

a weakened United States will

resort to more desperate and aggressive actions to retain its
hegemonic position. Todd identifies this impulse behind confrontations with Iraq, Iran, and North
gain with the economic advancement of other societies. Second,

Korea. Indeed, in his most dubious claim, Todd argues that the corruption of U.S. democracy is giving rise
to a poorly supervised ruling class that will be less restrained in its use of military force against other
democracies, those in Europe included. For Todd, all of this points to the disintegration of the American
empire. Todd is correct that the ability of any state to dominate the international system depends on its
economic strength. As economic dominance shifts, American unipolarity will eventually give way to a new
distribution of power. But, contrary to Todd's diagnosis, the United States retains formidable socioeconomic
advantages. And his claim that a rapacious clique of frightened oligarchs has taken over U.S. democracy is
simply bizarre. Most important, Todd's assertion that Russia and other great powers are preparing to
counterbalance U.S. power misses the larger patterns of geopolitics. Europe, Japan, Russia, and China have
sought to engage the United States strategically, not simply to resist it. They are pursuing influence and

the great powers

worry more about a detached, isolationist United States than they do about a
United States bent on global rule. Indeed, much of the pointed criticism of U.S.
unilateralism reflects a concern that the United States will stop
providing security and stability, not a hope that it will decline and
disappear.
accommodation within the existing order, not trying to overturn it. In fact,

America will cling to hegemony as long as possible

means their impact turns are inevitable
Calleo 9 David P. Calleo (University Professor at The Johns Hopkins
University and Dean Acheson Professor at its Nitze School of Advanced
International Studies (SAIS)) 2009 Follies of Power: Americas Unipolar
Fantasy p. 4-5

It is tempting to believe that Americas recent misadventures will discredit and suppress our hegemonic
longings and that, following the presidential election of 2008, a new administration will abandon them. But
so long as our identity as a nation is intimately bound up with seeing ourselves as the worlds most

hegemony is likely to remain the

recurring obsession of our official imagination, the idee fixe of our foreign policy.
powerful country, at the heart of a global system,

Americas hegemonic ambitions have, after all, suffered severe setbacks before. Less than half a century

Vietnam. But that lesson faded without forcing us to

abandon the old fantasies of omnipotence. The fantasies merely went into remission,
has passed since the lesson of

until the fall of the Soviet Union provided an irresistible occasion for their return. Arguably, in its collapse,
the Soviet Union proved to be a greater danger to Americas own equilibrium than in its heyday.

Dysfunctional imaginations are scarcely a rarity among individuals or among

nations. Reality is never a clear picture that imposes itself from without.
Imaginations need to collaborate. They synthesize old and new images,
concepts, and ideas and fuse language with emotions all according to the inner
grammar of our minds. These synthetic constructions become our reality, our way of
depicting the world in which we live. Inevitably, our imaginations present us with only a partial picture. As

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Walter Lippmann once put it, our imaginations create a pseudo-environment between ourselves and the
world.2 Every individual, therefore, has his own particular vision of reality, and every nation tends to
arrive at a favored collective view that differs from the favored view of other nations. When powerful and
interdependent nations hold visions of the world severely at odds with one another, the world grows
dangerous.

Alt to heg is massive great power wars

Yuhan Zhang, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Lin Shi,
Columbia University, Americas Decline: A Harbinger of Conflcit and Rivalry,
EAST ASIA FORUM, 12211,
http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-ofconflict-and-rivalry/
This does not necessarily mean that the US is in systemic decline, but it encompasses a trend that appears to be negative and perhaps alarming. Although the US still possesses incomparable
military prowess and its economy remains the worlds largest, the once seemingly indomitable chasm that separated America from anyone else is narrowing. Thus, the global distribution of power
is shifting, and the inevitable result will be a world that is less peaceful, liberal and prosperous, burdened by a dearth of effective conflict regulation. Over the past two decades, no other state has
had the ability to seriously challenge the US military. Under these circumstances, motivated by both opportunity and fear,

bandwagoned with US hegemony

many actors have

and accepted a subordinate role. Canada, most of Western Europe, India, Japan, South Korea,

as the hegemony that

withers, so will the pulling power behind the US alliance. The result will be an international order
where power is more diffuse, American interests and influence can be more readily challenged, and conflicts or wars
may be harder to avoid. As history attests, power decline and redistribution result in
military confrontation. For example, in the late 19th century Americas emergence as a regional power saw it launch its first overseas war of conquest
Australia, Singapore and the Philippines have all joined the US, creating a status quo that has tended to mute great power conflicts. However,
drew these powers together

towards Spain. By the turn of the 20th century, accompanying the increase in US power and waning of British power, the American Navy had begun to challenge the notion that Britain rules the
waves. Such a notion would eventually see the US attain the status of sole guardians of the Western Hemispheres security to become the order-creating Leviathan shaping the international
system with democracy and rule of law. Defining this US-centred system are three key characteristics: enforcement of property rights, constraints on the actions of powerful individuals and groups
and some degree of equal opportunities for broad segments of society. As a result of such political stability, free markets, liberal trade and flexible financial mechanisms have appeared. And, with
this, many countries have sought opportunities to enter this system, proliferating stable and cooperative relations. However, what will happen to these advances as Americas influence declines?
Given that Americas authority, although sullied at times, has benefited people across much of Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, the Balkans, as well as parts of Africa and, quite

postregional blocs, trade

extensively, Asia, the answer to this question could affect global society in a profoundly detrimental way. Public imagination and academia have anticipated that a

hegemonic world would return to the problems of the 1930s:

conflicts and strategic rivalry. Furthermore, multilateral institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank or the WTO might give way to regional
organisations. For example, Europe and East Asia would each step forward to fill the vacuum left by Washingtons withering leadership to pursue their own visions of regional political and

markets would become more politicised and, well, less free and major
powers would compete for supremacy. Additionally, such power plays have historically possessed a zero-sum element. In
economic orders. Free

the late 1960s and 1970s, US economic power declined relative to the rise of the Japanese and Western European economies, with the US dollar also becoming less attractive. And, as American

A world without American hegemony

is one where great power wars re-emerge, the liberal international system is supplanted by an authoritarian one, and
power eroded, so did international regimes (such as the Bretton Woods System in 1973).

trade protectionism devolves into restrictive, anti-globalisation barriers. This, at least, is one possibility we can forecast in a future that will inevitably be devoid of unrivalled US primacy.

Power vacuums cause nuclear war

Colin Gray, Prorfessor, International Politics and Strategic Studies,
University of Reading, THE SHERIFF: AMERICAS DEFENSE OF THE NEW
WORLD ORDER, 2004, p. 10.
The United States could pick up its military ball and go home. It could choose to
rely for world order on the hidden hand of universal commercial self-interest somewhat guided by such
regional and local balances and imbalances of power as may be extant or might emerge. In effect,

frequently this would translate as a green light for regional bullies

to mark out their territories (and sea space and air space). Thus far, the contemporary

United States is showing no persuasive evidence of an inclination to bring itself home as a political-military
influence. The issue is not whether America's skills in statecraft are fully adequate for the sheriff role
(whose would be?). Rather, is it whether there is to be a sheriff at all. If the United States declines the
honor, or takes early retirement, there is no deputy sheriff waiting, trained and ready for promotion.
Furthermore, there is no world-ordering mechanism worthy of the name which could substitute for the au-

At present there is no central axis of

a balance of power to keep order, while the regional balances in the
Middle East and South and East Asia are as likely to provoke as to
cool conflictand conflict with weapons of mass destruction (WMD) at that.
thority and strength of the American superpower.

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(Impact) UQAersospace high

The US Aerospace industry is growing strong

US Department of Commerce 2014 [The Aerospace Industry in the

United States http://selectusa.commerce.gov/industry-snapshots/aerospaceindustry-united-states]
In 2012, the U.S. aerospace industry contributed $118.5 billion in export sales
to the U.S. economy. The industrys positive trade balance of $70.5 billion is
the largest trade surplus of any manufacturing industry and came from exporting 64.3
percent of all aerospace production.

Foreign firms are attracted to the U.S. aerospace market because it is the
largest in the world and has a skilled and hospitable workforce, extensive
distribution systems, diverse offerings, and strong support at the local and
national level for policy and promotion. According to a recent study by the U.S. Department
of Commerce, aerospace exports directly and indirectly support more jobs than
the export of any other commodity. The U.S. aerospace industry directly employs about
500,000 workers in scientific and technical jobs across the nation and supports more than 700,000 jobs in

Investment in the U.S. aerospace industry is facilitated by a large

pool of well-trained machinists, aerospace engineers, and other highly-skilled
workers with experience in the aerospace industry.
Industry estimates indicate that the annual increase i n the number of large commercial
airplanes during the next 20 years will be 3.5 percent per year for a total of 34,000
valued at $4.5 trillion (list prices ).
related fields.

Aerospace industry is expanding

Deloitte 2014 [2014 Global Aerospace and Defense Industry outlook
http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_US/us/Industries/Aerospace-DefenseManufacturing/f203f16d5cbd2410VgnVCM3000003456f70aRCRD.htm?
id=us:el:fu:2014adout:awa:aers:010214]
The Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited Global Manufacturing Industry group has
released this years Global Aerospace and Defense Industry outlook, which
shows that revenue growth in the 5 percent range is expected for the overall
industry in 2014. The commercial aerospace sector is expected to continue its
significant revenue and earnings growth, with record setting production both at
the platform level, as well as in the supplier base. On the other hand, continued declines in revenue and
earnings are expected for the global defense sector.

The US aerospace industry is the strongest in the world

Deloitte 2012 [The Aerospace and Defense Industry in the U.S. A financial
and economic impact study https://www.aiaaerospace.org/assets/deloitte_study_2012.pdf]
Compared to aerospace and defense in other global regions

The U.S. aerospace and defense industry is the largest in the world,
comprising 53.9% of the total global revenues and 53.8% of total employees working
for publically held industry companies. The U.S. is also the largest industry market in the
world, primarily with the U.S. government, but also with commercial airlines
and the general aviation community.

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As can be seen in Figure 28, and according to data obtained from a study conducted by the Aerospace and
Defense Industries Association of Europe, the second and third largest markets are Europe and Canada,
with Europe controlling a significant market share of 35.9% of total global revenues and 36.0% of total
global employment. Brazil and Japan represent a less significant percentage of world revenues and
employment, with a combined 5.0% and 4.0%, respectively. Although not included in the scope of the
referenced study above, other countries and regions also have aerospace and defense related
employment, such as Mexico, Russia, China, Poland, Czech Republic, South Korea and others .

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AT: N/UHeg Decline Inev

US leadership is sustainable over the long-run

Colby and Lettow July 3rd [2014, Elbridge Colby is the Robert M. Gates
fellow at the Center for a New American Security. Paul Lettow was senior
director for strategic planning on the U.S. National Security Council staff from
2007 to 2009.
Have We Hit Peak America? Foreign Policy Blog
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/07/03/have_we_hit_peak_america]
PERHAPS THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING AMERICANS CAN DO, however, is to be honest with
themselves about the challenges the country faces and the seriousness with which it needs to treat them.
America needs to talk less about its exceptionalism and focus more on demonstrating it.

If America chooses the path of economic adaptation, reform, and restored

productivity -- that is, if it resolves to make tough choices -- it will be able to remain
prosperous and strong and therefore retain extraordinary influence over its
future and in the world. If it does not, it will see the domestic sources of its power erode far more
quickly and with far more damaging consequences than is currently appreciated.
Within the United States, there is an ongoing debate about the appropriate uses of American power

whatever one's views on how U.S. power should be used, there is

little reason to support its erosion. If one favors extensive American
engagement, a resilient America will be better able to lead and intervene
effectively. If one favors retrenchment and restraint, a more powerful America will be better insulated
abroad. But

from outside threats. If one favors measured engagement, strength provides options and the firmest basis
for sustained success. And, irrespective of foreign policy, an economically dynamic, growing America will
benefit all its citizens, particularly the generations to come.
Otto von Bismarck is often quoted as having said that God takes special care of drunks, children, and the
United States of America. But as another saying goes, God takes care of those who take care of
themselves. Although the former may still be true, the latter certainly is.
While believing that America is doomed to decline is a fallacy , refusing to confront the
problems that imperil its economic vitality would be no less a failing. American strength and freedom of

Preserving U.S. influence

abroad requires that Americans focus on renewing the sources of their
nation's power and mitigating its weaknesse s. It is time to play the long game.
action are not rights to be inherited but outcomes to be earned.

The US has long-term economic strengths that will ensure

its dominance for decades to come
Mellot July 3rd [2014, Darin, Is America in Decline? http://newsok.com/isamerica-in-decline/article/4985118]
Whats right in America

While its evident that the U.S. has several challenges to deal with now and in
coming years there is much that is right in America too. In fact, consider this: a survey

published in November 2012 conducted by the state-run Bank of China stated that 60 percent of
participants with assets worth $1.6 million or more were thinking about leaving the country or actively
taking steps to do so. The No. 1 destination for survey participants was the United States.
Why would citizens benefitting from high growth rates in the worlds second largest economy want to leave
to the United States? Reasons vary from the ability to retain wealth to considerations such as education for
children and environmental concerns. Wealthy Chinese citizens are not the only people in the world who
still look to the U.S. for leadership and believe in its ability to solve problems and prosper. The Economist
magazine published a piece in late 2013 stating that, it is time to cheer up and went on to say that,
Americas strengths are as impressive as ever. On every measure of power it remains dominant.

people see impressive and often unexpected developments

that occur with some regularity in America. Companies such as Apple,
Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Twitter and countless startups represent the
Outside of the country,

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tremendous innovation and creativity that is possible in this country. As the world adopts the
technology produced at such firms, jobs and wealth are created. The tech sector is a major driver of growth
in many areas across the country.

Energy is another example of how American ingenuity can upend prevailing

wisdom. According to Citi, the U.S. will surpass both Russia and Saudi Arabia as the
worlds largest oil producer. Perhaps one of the most insightful statements regarding the U.S.
energy boom came from the firms global head of commodities research, Ed Morse. He said that it is very
much a made in America phenomenon. In no other country can landowners also own mineral rights. In
only a few other countries is there a tradition of an energy sector featuring any independent
entrepreneurial companies. And in still fewer countries are there capital markets able and willing to
support financially risky exploration and production. In essence, it would be hard for other countries to
accomplish what the U.S. has under the same circumstances.

America maintains advantages and attributes that will not only prove hard to
displace, but will continue to fuel innovation and progress on a range of
issues. From military strength to financial markets, culture and its people, the
position of the United States is enviable. Ultimately, these strengths enable the country to
continue advancing.
Betting on America
The strengths of America are widely recognized, but many savvy investors are putting their money where
their mouths are. In late 2009, just months after the Great Recession technically ended, Warren Buffetts
Berkshire Hathaway bought the Burlington Northern railroad company for $26 billion. Buffett characterized
the purchase as a bet on the country (USA).
From my position as a commercial real estate analyst, I view commercial real estate investments as bets
on the economic outlook of areas. While there can be some unique transactions involving certain assets,
for the most part commercial real estate is a reflection of the economy it serves. I say this because
economic growth and evolution drive demand for real estate. Furthermore, its a longer-term bet because
structures are not the most liquid assets in the world.
So when I see multibillion-dollar transactions occurring regularly in cities across the U.S. (some backed by
foreign money) I see a bet on America. While such transactions are widely reported when involving highprofile properties in Americas largest cities, foreign capital is also interested in areas across the country.
Many times this interest is also expressed through U.S. based companies, but the same idea holds: it is a
vote of confidence.
Not in decline

The U.S. remains the most powerful nation on earth both economically and
militarily; furthermore, it boasts creativity and innovation that only a free society could develop. To be
sure, the country is facing many large challenges and nothing is assured our choices matter; but

America is well positioned to handle its problems . Such being the case, I do not
believe America is in decline.

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AT: N/UHeg Decline bc entitlements

Entitlements are sustainable with incremental reforms

Peterson 2013 [Michael, founder of Peter G Peterson Foundation,

Statement by Foundation President and COO Michael A. Peterson on Social
Security and Medicare Trustees' Reports http://pgpf.org/Issues/FiscalOutlook/2013/05/053113-Michael-Peterson-Statement-Social-SecurityMedicare-Reports]
"The Trustees warn of 'mounting pressure on the federal budget' and tell us that
future Social Security recipients will face sharp reductions in benefits unless policymakers take action to
make the system sustainable. Medicare's Trustees make clear that Medicare will place a much larger
burden on the federal budget in coming decades, despite the slower growth during the recent recession.
"Addressing

the twin challenges of Social Security and Medicare is absolutely

essential to providing security to future seniors, while maintaining America's ability to invest in
economic growth and opportunity for tomorrow's workers. The Trustees state clearly that 'legislative
changes are necessary to avoid disruptive consequences for beneficiaries and
taxpayers. If lawmakers take action sooner rather than later, more options and
more time will be available to phase in changes so that the public has
adequate time to prepare.'
"Congress and the President should agree now on a bipartisan plan to improve the long-term outlook for
Social Security and Medicare.

A long-term plan can be implemented gradually, to

protect economic growth and recovery today , while helping to ensure that
Social Security and Medicare are strong and sustainable for the future."

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Air Power Good Iran Prolif

Air power collapse causes Iranian prolif
Bartels 9
[Clay, Major, USAF, How The USAF Can Lose The Next War Losing Air
Superiority, Aprilhttp://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a540193.pdf]
Iran is another hot spot that could require intervention by the United States. Though Iran

currently flies antiquated western aircraft with a mix of Russian technology, reports have been confirmed

Iran has contracted for the advanced SA-20 SAM system.72 With a
potentially strong oil market and the desire to assert regional power, Iran is likely to continue
upgrading their military defense capabilities throughout the
timeframe of the air superiority gap. If Iran obtained a nuclear
weapon or if acquiring it was imminent, the international community would
require action. For the U.S. in particular, nuclear proliferation is not acceptable because of its
that

destabilizing effect. Depending on the timing of this scenario, it is possible that the U.S. Navy would have
the preponderance of firepower in the region. Additionally, it is likely that a more independent Iraq would
not allow attacks from their country on neighboring Iran. The fixed wing strike aircraft for the USN consists
entirely of F-18 Hornet variants. It does, however, have additional capability via the Tomahawk cruise

the Navy does not have a true LO

strike aircraft until the F-35 is operational. Thus, the potential joint task force could run into the
missile. The issue in this situation becomes that

same access issues discussed in the Georgia example. The easy answer to this problem is to utilize Air
Force assets, but these land-based forces require basing or over flight assistance. If this is denied, the

this air superiority scenario could end

with significant aircraft losses and eventual defeat for the United States.
mobile USN might have to go it alone. Again,

Global nuclear war

Sokolsky 3

[Henry, Exec Dir Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, Policy Review, 101, Lexis]
If nothing is done to shore up U.S. and allied security relations with the Gulf Coordination Council states

Iran's acquisition of even a nuclear weapons breakout

capability could prompt one or more of these states to try to acquire a nuclear weapons
and with Iraq, Turkey, and Egypt,

option of their own. Similarly, if the U.S. fails to hold Pyongyang accountable for its violation of the NPT or
lets Pyongyang hold on to one or more nuclear weapons while appearing to reward its violation with a new
deal--one that heeds North Korea's demand for a nonaggression pact and continued construction of the
two light water reactors--South Korea and Japan (and later, perhaps, Taiwan) will have powerful cause to
question Washington's security commitment to them and their own pledges to stay non-nuclear. In such a
world, Washington's worries would not be limited to gauging the military capabilities of a growing number
of hostile, nuclear, or near-nuclear-armed nations. In addition, it would have to gauge the reliability of a
growing number of nuclear or near-nuclear friends. Washington might still be able to assemble coalitions,
but with more nations like France, with nuclear options of their own, it would be much, much more iffy. The
amount of international intrigue such a world would generate would also easily exceed what our diplomats
and leaders could manage or track. Rather than worry about using force for fear of producing another
Vietnam, Washington and its very closest allies are more likely to grow weary of working closely with
others and view military options through the rosy lens of their relatively quick victories in Desert Storm,
Kosovo, Operation Iraqi Freedom, and Just Cause.

to that of 1914 but

This would be a world disturbingly similar

spring-loaded to go nuclear.

with one big difference: It would be

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Air Power Good Korea

U.S. Airpower prevents Korean conflict
Bechtol 5
[Bruce, assistant professor of national security studies at Air Command and
staff college, The Future of U.S. airpower on the Korean Peninsula,
September 1st http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/air
chronicles/apj/apj05/fal05/bechtol.html#bechtol ]
US military support to the Republic of Korea (ROK) remains critical to
peace and stability. The author details constraints faced by the army of the Democratic Peoples
Republic of Korea (DPRK) in any attempt to invade the ROK. Although much of the surfacebased defense capability in the South is transitioning to the ROK army, a
strong US airpower presence demonstrates US commitment to Korean
security, counterbalances the DPRKs offensive systems, and deters
war.) Since the summer of 1950, US airpower has remained one of the
dominant military forces on the Korean Peninsula . Through the Korean War, the
Cold War, the uncertain postCold War era that has existed since the fall of the Soviet Union, and the

the ability of US
airpower to serve as a key pillar of deterrence to forces that
threaten the stability and security of the Republic of Korea (ROK)
and the ROK-US alliance has remained unquestioned. In a transforming
transition of power in North Korea from Kim Il Sung to his son, Kim Jong Il,

geopolitical landscape and a rapidly evolving region, this is unlikely to change in the future.

Extinction

Chol 2
[Director Center for Korean American Peace, 10-24,
http://nautilus.org/fora/security/0212A_Chol.html]
Any military strike initiated against North Korea will promptly
explode into a thermonuclear exchange between a tiny nucleararmed North Korea and the world's superpower, America. The most
densely populated Metropolitan U.S.A., Japan and South Korea will
certainly evaporate in The Day After scenario-type nightmare . The New
York Times warned in its August 27, 2002 comment: "North Korea runs a more advanced
biological, chemical and nuclear weapons program, targets American military
bases and is developing missiles that could reach the lower 48 states. Yet there's
good reason President Bush is not talking about taking out Dear Leader Kim Jong Il. If we tried, the Dear Leader would
bombard South Korea and Japan with never gas or even nuclear warheads, and (according to one Pentagon study) kill up
to a million people." The first two options should be sobering nightmare scenarios for a wise Bush and his policy planners.
If they should opt for either of the scenarios, that would be their decision, which the North Koreans are in no position to

the North Korean mean what they say .

The North Koreans will use all their resources in their arsenal to fight a fullscale nuclear exchange with the Americans in the last war of mankind. A
nuclear-armed North Korea would be most destabilizing in the region and the
rest of the world in the eyes of the Americans. They would end up finding themselves reduced
take issue with. The Americans would realize too late that

to a second-class nuclear power.

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Air Power Good Russian Expansionism

Air superiority checks Russian expansionism
Bartels 9
[Clay, Major, USAF, How The USAF Can Lose The Next War Losing Air
Superiority, Aprilhttp://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a540193.pdf]
A resurgent Russia flexed her muscles in 2008 by invading a nation
friendly to America, Georgia. The conflict was airpower intensive from the

beginning. Russia utilized TU-22 bombers and Su-25 attack aircraft under the support of air-to-air Su-27s to

Control of the air was not completely undisputed ,

Under different
political circumstances such as ethnic cleansing or genocide, the United States
could have elected to intervene on behalf of 22 Georgia against the Russian forces. In
such a situation, air superiority would have been strongly contested.
rout the Georgian forces.70

however, as the Georgian air defenses did down several Russian aircraft.71

Russia could have moved advanced mobile SAMs such as the SA-12 or fixed SAMs like the SA-20 to the
edge of its border. Such an IADS would have effectively covered the entirety of the nation of Georgia.

Against this type of a robust system, legacy aircraft such as the F-15 or F-16
would be completely ineffective. The only survivable systems against this defense are the LO F22 and B-2. To complicate the problem, there would be significant political constraints involved that would
most likely not allow attacking systems inside Russias borders. In this case, it is practically impossible to
gain air superiority. The F-22 could destroy enemy aircraft, but advanced SEAD and self-support jamming
would be essential for legacy aircraft and their robust air-to-ground capability to enter the fight.
Unfortunately, the USAF and even the USN do not have such a capability. Thus, if the United States truly
wants to project airpower in this scenario aircraft and human losses would have to occur. Furthermore, the
Army would be denied key pieces of maneuver and firepower in their helicopter fleet. In the age of the

it is doubtful that the American people would stand for a

parade of POWs on Moscow TV or dead bodies in the street. It is a relatively direct train of logic to
CNN Effect,

see how this situation could result in the United States military withdrawing and not accomplishing
national objectives.

Extinction
Israelyan 98

[Victor, Soviet Ambassador and Arms Control Negotiator, Washington

Quarterly, Winter, Lexis]
The first and by far most dangerous possibility is what I call the power scenario. Supporters of this option would, in the

Many would seek to

revive a dictatorship and take urgent military steps to mobilize the people
against the outside "enemy." Such steps would include Russia's denunciation of the
commitment to no-first-use of nuclear weapons; suspension of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty
name of a "united and undivided Russia," radically change domestic and foreign policies.

(START) I and refusal to ratify both START II and the Chemical Weapons Convention; denunciation of the Biological

Weapons Convention; and reinstatement of a full-scale armed force, including the acquisition of
additional intercontinental ballistic missiles with multiple warheads, as well as medium- and short-range missiles such as
the SS-20. Some of these measures will demand substantial financing, whereas others, such as the denunciation and
refusal to ratify arms control treaties, would, according to proponents, save money by alleviating the obligations of those

planners would shift Western countries from the

to the category of countries representing a threat to national

agreements. In this scenario, Russia's military

category of strategic partners

security. This will revive the strategy of nuclear deterrence -- and indeed, realizing its unfavorable odds against the
expanded NATO, Russia will place new emphasis on the first-use of nuclear
weapons, a trend that is underway already. The power scenario envisages a hard-line policy
toward the CIS countries, and in such circumstances the problem of the Russian diaspora in those countries would be
greatly magnified. Moscow would use all the means at its disposal, including economic sanctions and political ultimatums,
to ensure the rights of ethnic Russians in CIS countries as well as to have an influence on other issues. Of those means,
even the use of direct military force in places like the Baltics cannot be ruled out. Some will object that this scenario is

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implausible because no potential dictator exists in Russia who could carry out this strategy. I am not so sure. Some Duma
members -- such as Victor Antipov, Sergei Baburin, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, and Albert Makashov, who are leading politicians
in ultranationalistic parties and fractions in the parliament -- are ready to follow this path to save a "united Russia."
Baburin's "Anti-NATO" deputy group boasts a membership of more than 240 Duma members. One cannot help but
remember that when Weimar Germany was isolated, exhausted, and humiliated as a result of World War I and the
Versailles Treaty, Adolf Hitler took it upon himself to "save" his country. It took the former corporal only a few years to
plunge the world into a second world war that cost humanity more than 50 million lives. I do not believe that Russia has
the economic strength to implement such a scenario successfully, but then again, Germany's economic situation in the
1920s was hardly that strong either. Thus, I am afraid that economics will not deter the power scenario's would-be authors

any political leader who would "dare to

encroach upon Russia" would be decisively repulsed by the Russian Federation "by all
measures on heaven and earth up to the use of nuclear weapons." n10 In autumn
from attempting it. Baburin, for example, warned that

1996 Oleg Grynevsky, Russian ambassador to Sweden and former Soviet arms control negotiator, while saying that NATO
expansion increases the risk of nuclear war, reminded his Western listeners that Russia has enough missiles to destroy
both the United States and Europe. n11 Former Russian minister of defense Igor Rodionov warned several times that
Russia's vast nuclear arsenal could become uncontrollable. In this context, one should keep in mind that, despite
dramatically reduced nuclear arsenals -- and tensions -- Russia and the United States remain poised to launch their
missiles in minutes. I cannot but agree with Anatol Lieven, who wrote, "It may be, therefore, that with all the new Russian
order's many problems and weaknesses, it will for a long time be able to stumble on, until we all fall down together." n12

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Air Power Good Terrorism

Air power is critical to an effective war on terrorism
RAND 3 (Project Air Force Annual Report,
http://www.rand.org/pubs/annual_reports/2005/AR7089.pdf)
Counterterrorism Will Require a Mix of Air Force Capabilities and Long-Term, Sustained

Effort The war on terrorism is more likely to be a long-term effort in which the use of force, at least by U.S.
military personnel, is only sporadic and successful military operations will resemble counterinsurgency
operations. The primary role of U.S. military forces will often be indirect and supportive. U.S.

forces
will be called upon to train, equip, advise, and assist host-country forces in rooting
out terrorist groups; forge strong relationships with host-country personnel; show great discretion in
their conduct of operations; and maintain a low profile in the host country. They will be able to react swiftly

The Air Force, then, should expect sustained heavy

provide important capabilities, assets, and skill sets to support
counterterrorism operations abroad. Chief contributions will include surveillance platforms,
and effectively when promising targets arise.
demand to

operators, and analysts; language-qualified personnel to help train and advise host-country forces and to
analyze human intelligence; security police and other force protection assets; base operating support
personnel and equipment to provide communications, housing, and transportation; heliborne insertion and

U.S. airpower may be

called upon to strike terrorists in base camps, hideouts, vehicles, and other locations.
extraction capabilities; and humanitarian relief assets. In some cases,

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AT: Ceramics key

Plastics are advantageous in comparison to ceramics
McHale 1 John is a writer for Military and Aerospace Electronics. Plastic ICs get hot in
high-temp market. http://www.militaryaerospace.com/articles/print/volume-12/issue7/features/special-report/plastic-ics-get-hot-in-high-temp-market.html

plastic parts differ from ceramic in that

plastic parts are not hermetically sealed. This means that moisture can get
inside the plastic package and damage the part, explains Howard Bogrow,
In the realm of high-temperature electronics,

marketing manager for aerospace and defense products at Xilinx in San Jose, Calif. Hermetics are
particularly important in space applications where moisture-induced parts failures are nearly impossible to
replace. Ceramic, obviously, is the package of choice in those situations, Bogrow explains. Officials at Actel
will be releasing military plastic versions of their SX72A (left) and SX32A (right) field programmable gate

Plastic devices, on the other hand, are typically for applications

that involve controlled environments such as ground stations, aircraft cockpits, or
surface ship bridges, Bogrow says. However, ceramic parts are still necessary
outside the aircraft, where extremely harsh conditions prevail, he says. "We are still seeing
arrays this month.

missile and other unpressurized applications requiring the full military temperature range products," Ewald

QuickLogic experts produce a line of plastic devices including

their QL 4090 field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) for military
applications. Most of Aeroflex UTMC's ceramic products have a top level of 125 degrees C, says
says.

Joseph Benedetto, standard product technical manager at Aeroflex UTMC in Colorado Springs, Colo.
Designers take any applications involving hotter temperatures than that on a case-by-case basis, he adds.
Aeroflex UTMC does not produce plastic devices, he says. It is mostly only military applications that
actually get as hot as 125 degrees C, Benedetto explains. Most space systems designers have also
reduced their requirements to -20 to 80 or 100 degrees C, and only rarely go above 125 degrees C, he
adds. An example is a satellite operating in a sun-synchronous orbit in which half the satellite always faces
the sun, Benedetto explains. The Xilinx Virtex field programmable gate array is offered in military plastic
and ceramic packages. Aeroflex UTMC engineers design a range of high-temperature, ceramic-packaged
static random access memory (SRAM) products. They released a 3-volt low voltage differential signaling
(LVDS) quad driver and receiver for space applications earlier this year. The device features cold sparing,
which is necessary for redundant system architectures or subsystems electrically connected without power

Engineers at Space Electronics in San Diego are looking

to release a memory device by the end of this year that will have an
inexpensive plastic part encased in a ceramic package which represents
supplied, Aeroflex UTMC officials say.

the company's well-known Rad-Pak shielding design says Larry Longden, the Space Electronics director
of product development. Space Electronics engineers will buy the commercial part, upscreen it, and
package it in ceramics, he says. Space Electronics, while not traditionally a producer of plastic designs, is
going with the device because of the shrinking availability of ceramic ICs, company officials say. The 125 C
ceiling is as hot as Xilinx will certify its parts, Bogrow says. Xilinx experts provide plastic and ceramic
versions of their military Virtex and VirtexE products, with Virtex 2 military versions coming later this year,
Bogrow says. "We sell a whole bunch of military plastic packages " mostly to
avionics customers where the MIL-STD 883 requirement is not a necessity, Actel's Bendekovic says. While
they are willing to forgo hermeticity, he continues, Actel's space customers are not. Therefore, all of Actel's

Actel will release

32A and 72A military plastic parts this month under the company's
new SXA family of devices, he adds. Actel also sells some products to oil companies for
space qualified parts are at least qualified MIL-STD 883, Bendekovic says.

downhole drilling applications where temperatures typically run at 180 degrees C or hotter, Bendekovic
says. Downhole drilling applications use sophisticated electronics that determine the size of an

Drilling friction generates heat and

pressure that require robust parts, Bendekovic says. Downhole electronics designers
underground oil reservoir, he explains.

de-rate products for performance depending on how far past the 125 mark they go, says Kangsen Huey,
high-rel program manager at Actel. Oil companies typically use pin-grid-array ceramic packages for
downhole drilling for their robustness, he adds. Testing Actel performs two kinds of tests highly
accelerated stress testing (HAST), which covers full military temperature of -55 to 125, and hot
temperature operating life (HTOL), which provides a fixed stability percentage of the operational life of the
device and is for only MIL-STD 883 parts, Huey says. Actel specialists test all company parts to the 125
degrees C military temperature range, and additionally qualify Actel's ceramic parts to MIL-STD 883 for

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hermeticity, he adds. Some companies, meanwhile, only do batch testing, Bendekovic says. In other words
they judge all their products based on one test sample, he explains. This is usually a foot in the door for

Plastic parts can also survive testing to

hotter than 125 degrees C, QuickLogic's Ewald says. One of QuickLogic's customers
recently took one of their plastic devices and ran it to about 180
degrees C, where the device lost performance but still retained basic
functionality, Ewald claims. Ceramic suppliers The suppliers of standard ceramic substrates get
Actel on a sales call, Bendekovic says.

packaging for their IC products from Kyocera and NTK in Japan, Aeroflex UTMC's Benedetto says. There
have not been any domestic ceramic suppliers for many years, he adds. UTMC gets their substrates from
NTK, Benedetto says. Most packaging done with ceramic substrates is custom work, Benedetto says.
However, "we've adapted a special heat sink package that has become available commercially" and are
designing it into radiation-hardened applications, Benedetto says. While Kyocera and NTK have
traditionally produced custom designs they are starting to offer more open designs of pin grid arrays and
other products, Ewald says. Honeywell creates a niche within a niche market with electronics that can
perform at 225 degrees C Engineers at the Honeywell Space Systems Solid State Electronics Center (SSEC)
in Plymouth, Minn., are forging a specialty area within the high-temperature market by designing
electronics that can withstand an intense heat as high as 225 degrees Celsius for downhole drilling
applications and for aircraft turbine engines such as the U.S. Air Force F-22 jet fighter. Honeywell experts
have created a line of high-temperature electronics, such as actuators and other smart sensors, that have
an operational life of five years at 225 degrees C with mean time between failure rate of 300,000 hours,
says Ben Gingerich, business development manager at Honeywell SSEC. Honeywell officials have targeted
four main markets for their extreme high-temperature products turbine aircraft engines, downhole oil
drilling, heavy diesel truck engines, and avionics, Gingerich says. "Turbine engines used in aircraft and
stationary power generation need [high-temperature] electronics to implement more modern control
techniques and monitoring systems," states Honeywell SSEC applications engineer Jay Goetz in a general

Internal
combustion engines need [high-temperature] electronics as engine
compartments get hotter and control strategies are refined to meet
reduced emissions standards." Honeywell engineers are also working with the Boeing Co.
white paper entitled "High Temperature Electronics for Sensor Interface and Data Acquisition."

in Seattle to place actuators in hot locations for different avionics programs, Gingerich adds. Modern
aircraft couple controls tightly, distribute engine controls, and operate electronics without airflow or heat
sinking, Goetz states in his paper. These factors push the operating temperature constraints for electronics
much higher than temperature constraints have been in the past.

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ImpactVTL
Plastics key to VTL
SPI 2014 [Plastics: Making Modern Life Possible
http://www.plasticsindustry.org/AboutPlastics/contentwip.cfm?
ItemNumber=6785]
Plastics are responsible for countless facets of the modern life we enjoy today
from health and well being, nutrition, shelter and transportation to safety
and security, communication, leisure activities and innovations of industry.
Plastics improve our lives; bring us joy , convenience, efficiency and
connection to others. Sometimes these materials even save our lives. In
short, plastics flexibility and adaptability enable them to provide many
different solutions in an increasingly complex world.
From sunrise to sunset, as you go through your typical day, take
note of the role plastics play in your life a role often taken for
granted : You awaken to the sound of your alarm clock/radio, you make
coffee, your use your toothbrush and hairbrush, you put on clothing, you fill
your reusable lunch bag, you drive your car (putting your toddler in a child
safety seat) or ride your bicycle (dont forget that helmet!), you listen to your
iPod, you make a few calls on your smartphone, you work at your computer,
you enjoy a bottle of water, you remove the protective film from around the
meat and vegetables youll prepare for dinner And that only begins to
touch the surface of the importance of plastics in your everyday life.

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ImpactTurn Case

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Plastics reduce waste

Plastics key to waste reduction

Piyush and Sruthijith 2002 [Piyush Kunnapallil & Sruthijith K K The Plastic
Conundrum: Whats The Way Out?
http://ccs.in/internship_papers/2002/33.pdf]
The employment of plastics for various
purposes brings about considerable waste diminution and resource saving.
Plastics tend to be lighter than other alternative materials. This enables the
use of lesser plastics as compared to other materials in packages and thereby
reduces waste. For instance, the use of plastic grocery bags as against paper
Waste Reduction & Resource Conservation:

sacks reduces waste by 80 percent. Similarly, resource are conserved when

more than 2.8 million plastic grocery bags can be delivered in one truck as
compared to only 500,000 paper grocery bags.
Plastics also have physical properties that allow their repeated
multiple applications. For example, some laundry products are packaged in
reusable plastic bottles and small packages of concentrated product are used

use and use in

to refill the original bottles. This helps reduce total packaging waste .
Plastics generally exhibit superior resistance to breakage and denting. This
results in fewer container breaches and less product loss on the packaging
line and safer handling in the home.
Plastics allow highly efficient manufacturing processes (up to 99 percent
efficiency) that increase productivity by 20 to 30 percent and reduce capital
expenditures by as much as 50 percent.

Plastics help appliances and other durable goods last longer and thereby
stay
out of the waste stream. Without plastics resistance to corrosion, the product

life of some major appliances would be reduced by nearly 40 percent.29

Notwithstanding the sundry important benefits from the application of plastics, there
are certain environmental side effects and health risks caused by them during
manufacture, recycling and disposal. We list below some of the banes on which
large-scale consensus has emerged

Laundry list reasons plastics good for environment

SPI 2014 [A Few Fast Facts on...Plastics and Energy
http://www.plasticsindustry.org/AboutPlastics/content.cfm?
ItemNumber=788&navItemNumber=1280]
Plastics help conserve resources. Using lightweight, durable, formable
plastics, manufacturers can minimize raw materials used, energy consumed
and waste generated.
Plastics save energy. Only about 4 percent of U.S. total energy consumption
goes into the creation of plastic products, and it often takes less energy to
convert plastics from a raw material into a finished product than comparable
products made of other materials.
During their life cycle, plastic bags require about one-third less energy to
make than paper bags.
Foam polystyrene containers take 30 percent less total energy to make than
paperboard containers.
53 billion kilowatt hours of electricity are saved annually by improvements in
major appliance energy made possible by plastic applications. Without the

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benefits provided by plastics insulation, these appliances would use up to 30

percent more energy.
Without plastics, the energy used to produce packaging would double. By
using plastics rather than its alternatives, American manufacturers save more
than 330 Btu. This is a difference equivalent to 58 million barrels of oil, 325
billion cubic feet of natural gas or 32 billion pounds of coal.
Plastics are lighter than many alternative materials. They have consistently
reduced the weight of truck payloads and allowed companies to ship more
product in fewer trucks - saving energy. For instance, 2.8 million plastic
grocery bags can be delivered in one truck; the same truck can hold only
500,000 paper grocery bags.
Over the lifetime of the average car, plastic parts save 650 gallons of gas as
a result of their lighter weight.
The energy saved by recycling a one-gallon plastic milk jug will keep a 100watt bulb burning for 11 hours.
By using plastics in their packaging, product manufacturers save enough
energy every year to power a city of 1 million homes for 3-1/2 years.

Elimination of plastics would drastically increase waste

SPI 2014 [A Few Fast Facts on... Plastics in the Waste Stream
http://www.plasticsindustry.org/AboutPlastics/content.cfm?
ItemNumber=829&navItemNumber=1280]
Without plastics, the total volume of packaging waste would increase by
around 160 percent.
Because plastics are lightweight, durable and versatile, manufacturers can
minimize the material used and the waste generated by using plastic products and
packaging.

Without plastics' resistance to corrosion, the product life of some major

appliances would be reduced by nearly 40 percent. By helping them last
longer, plastics keep appliances and other durable goods out of the waste
stream.
You could carry home 1,000 oz. of soda in 2 lbs. of plastic packaging, but it would take 27 lbs. of glass, 8
lbs. of steel and 3 lbs. of aluminum to do the same job.
It takes 4.3 lbs. of glass to package one gallon of milk or juice, but less than 1/4 lb. of plastic to do the
same job.
Some plastics can be recycled. Hundreds of quality products made with or packaged in post-consumer
recycled plastic now are commercially available.
Two soft drink bottles can make a baseball cap, when recycled into polyester fiber.
Artificial lumber made of recycled plastic is used in sea walls, fence posts and park benches.
Plastic bags and stretch wrap are finding their way into decking material that is unsurpassed for its
durability. It does not decay or crack, resists damage from termites and ants and requires no protective
sealants.
Plastic packaging, which makes up less than 6 percent (by weight) of discarded products in the municipal
waste stream, can be disposed of safely in landfills.

When incinerated, plastics - with their high energy content - help the entire mix to burn
more efficiently, enhancing waste-to-energy conversion and leaving less ash.

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Plastics decr emissions/incr energy efficiency

Plastics good for the environment- cut emissions
BPF 06

(British Plastics Federation on Plastics and Sustainability

http://www.bpf.co.uk/Sustainability/Plastics_and_Sustainability.aspx)

Plastics

are lightweight, corrosion-free, and easily moulded into complex shapes without the need for

properties make them perfect for use in planes,

trains, boats and cars. With plastics, automotive designers can balance high
performance, competitive pricing, style and reliability with comfort,
safety, fuel efficiency and minimal environmental impact . A modern car, for
assembly or fastening systems. These

example, contains around 11% plastic, which reduces the vehicle's weight and, consequently, emissions.

the Airbus A380 (the world's largest commercial aircraft) is built from carbon
plastics, which helps reduce the fuel used per passenger to a
rate comparable to that of an economical family car. Plastic composite
panels in Swiss trains has led to a 25% reduction in weight, leading to
significant energy savings (1).
Some 22% of
reinforced

Plastics are key to transportation energy efficiency

Piyush and Sruthijith 2002 [Piyush Kunnapallil & Sruthijith K K The Plastic
Conundrum: Whats The Way Out?
http://ccs.in/internship_papers/2002/33.pdf]
Transportation: On land, on sea, in the air and in space, plastics are on the
move.
Plastics are used in everything from automobiles and light trucks to trailers and
motorcycles, from marine craft and canoes to minesweepers and trains, from buses
and airplanes to space shuttles. Automakers prefer plastic parts for their durability,
corrosion resistance, ease of coloring and finishing, light weight, design flexibility and

automakers first
discovered that plastics could make cars more energy efficient by reducing
their
weight. With that discovery, plastics found their way into automobile
components
such as bumpers, fenders, doors, safety and rear-quarter windows, headlight
and
side view mirror housings, trunk lids, hoods, grilles and wheel covers. The use
of
plastics was able to reduce the weight of an average passenger car built in
1988 by
145 pounds. This saved millions of gallons of gas annually and the energy equivalent
fuel savings. It was during the oil crisis of the 1970s that the

of 21 million barrels of oil over the average lifetime of those cars. By the 1993 model
year, over 250 pounds of plastics were being used in an average vehicle .

Plastics key to energy efficiency

Piyush and Sruthijith 2002 [Piyush Kunnapallil & Sruthijith K K The Plastic
Conundrum: Whats The Way Out?
http://ccs.in/internship_papers/2002/33.pdf]

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The use of plastics allows economization in the consumption

of
energy and thereby provides substantial saving in production costs . The following
Energy Conservation:

statistical data as regards US will make this clear:

using plastics in packaging, product manufacturers save enough energy

each year to power a city of 1 million homes for three and a half years.
For every seven trucks needed to deliver paper grocery bags to the store,
only one truck is needed to carry the same number of plastic grocery bags.
By

Foam polystyrene containers take 30 percent less energy to make than

paperboard containers.
The manufacture of 1000 one litre plastic bottles requires 57 percent less fuel
than is required by the same number of glass bottles and the manufacture of
1000 plastic bags requires 32 percent less fuel than is required by the same
number of paper bags.28

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Aff Answers

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N/UQ
Plastic industry is suffering because demand is low
Journal Gazette 13 (Matthews, S. (2013, Nov 18). Still no rescue for
plastics industry. Journal Gazette)

Plastics makers such as Bayer and Lanxess have created everything

from a plastic saxophone that can be played in live concerts to
Harley-Davidson engine parts made entirely of the synthetic
material. The push to introduce new plastic offerings - as new
manufacturing techniques allow the replacement of metal, fibers and wood in
many products - can't mask the fact that a drop in demand, coupled
with overly optimistic spending on new plants, is prompting Europe's
biggest producers Bayer, Lanxess and Evonik Industries AG, to cull at
least 3,700 jobs. European sales haven't recovered from pre-crisis
levels in 2008 and fell more than 2 percent to $116 billion last year,
according to lobby group PlasticsEurope. Even with new applications,
producers can't make up for the woes at the commodity business where
rising competition from low-cost Asian manufacturers is hurting profitability,
Union Investment fund manager Christopher Schaefer said. "The companies
are trying to stay ahead of the game and they are trying to add new
innovative materials at the top, where you can make good money," said
Schaefer. "But now we're facing a slower growth environment and
competition in general is picking up dramatically." Traditional plastics still
account for about 85 percent of the total market. Europe accounts
for 20.4 percent of the world's production and China is the biggest
producer with 23.9 percent, according to PlasticsEurope. Roberto Gualdoni,
chief executive officer of Styrolution Group GmbH, says commodity offerings such as polystyrene for electronic devices and refrigeration liners - still
represent most of his industry's business. "You shouldn't fool yourself
into saying that you have some huge innovation," Gualdoni said in an
interview. If it's not a large technological advance, then you have to
rely on "normal operational excellence," he said.

Plastic bag ban hurts the plastic industry

PR Newswire 14 (Chicagos proposed bag ban threatens American jobs,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/29/chicago-bagban-opposeidUSnPn4nXFrj+8c+PRN20140429)

"The proposal to ban plastic shopping bags in Chicago is an illconceived job killer that will become a costly burden to families
across the city. Paper bags, the plastic bag substitute, are an expensive option
that will trickle down to the consumer through increased costs for groceries and
other products," said SPI President and CEO William R. Carteaux. "Banning
plastic bags in Chicago will have a negative impact on all sectors of
the city's population," Carteaux said. "Reduce, reuse and recycle are much
better options." In 2012, the 892,000 American jobs in the plastics
manufacturing industry accounted for$41.7 billion in payroll , according

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to a report titled, "The Definition, Size and Impact of the Plastics Industry." The
plastics industry employs people in every state across the nation,
including 3,000 in Illinois. Within the plastics industry, the plastic
bag manufacturing and recycling industry employs more than 30,800
people in the U.S., according to the American Progressive Bag
Alliance.

Plastic bag ban imperils plastic industry jobs

LA Daily News 14 (State plastic-bag ban would only hurt workers,
http://www.dailynews.com/opinion/20140603/plastic-bag-ban-would-hurtcalifornia-workers-letters)
The legislation also exempts heavier, thicker-gauge plastic and paper bags,
which require more resources to produce and take longer to break down. SB
270 would also cripple the states plastic bag manufacturing and
recycling industry and imperil nearly 2,000 California jobs. I know
because Lynwood is home to a number of these workers.

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AT: Link
Conservation and recycling key to long-term health of
plastics industry

Plastics News 2014 [1/6 Safety, industry image top PN's 2014 agenda]
plastics have suffered from an image problem. The industry must
combat misinformation by highlighting the benefits of plastics.
- Sustainability is a priority. Profitability and sustainability are not mutually
exclusive concepts - true sustainability will result in long-term health for the
plastics industry. Companies should consider sustainability when making decisions about resource
For too long,

utilization, including material selection and energy use.

- Recycling must be encouraged . Americans have become too comfortable in their habit of
throwing away used plastics items. Products should be designed to take into account recycling, source

Where practical, single-use plastics should be

recycled, incinerated for energy or at the very least put in a landfill - not become litter or
marine debris.
reduction, health and pollution issues.

Conservation is good for the plastics industry

American Chemistry Council 14 American Chemistry Council.
Sustainability and Recycling. http://plastics.americanchemistry.com/Sustainability-Recycling

using plastics can help

reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions throughout the
life of a product or package. A recent study confirms key role for the
chemical industry in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and
highlights the important role of plastic products, such as building
insulation, packaging, auto parts, and pipe. The plastics industry
endorses the practice of conserving resources and minimizing the
environmental and health impacts of plastics and plastic products.
We support the use of: Environmental and energy-efficiency criteria in
By allowing manufacturers and consumers to do more with less,

product design and purchasing decisions, along with product safety, cost, performance and availability.

Environmental performance and energy criteria in product evaluations through a

systems approach, using recognized life cycle analysis tools that include the entire use phase.

Sustainable product criteria that reflect consensus-based decision-making, best available

science, transparency, and openness to ALL stakeholders. ACCs Plastics Division
supports sustainability initiatives that are conducted in accordance
with these principles.

Aff leads to litter-gathering that helps the plastics

industry through recycling
Right Vision News 2011 [4/9 Belgium: How plastic bags pollute the future
of our seas]
The pollution of the Mediterranean Sea from marine litter -and especially plastic litterhas now taken alarming dimensions . It is an open wound for biodiversity, ecosystems and
after all, for man himself and our civilisation.
In the Mediterranean Sea, the sea of the three continents, which is considered to be the caucus of
civilisation, the situation of marine litter and especially plastic litter has taken threatening dimensions.

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Despite all the efforts made on an international, regional and national level, there are clear indications that
the marine litter is increasing. Last July a Franco-Belgian research team announced the results of their
research; there were almost 250 billion small pieces of plastic in the Mediterranean and an additional 500
tones of dissolved plastic litter on the surface of our sea.
This situation cannot continue. The Mediterranean is a closed sea with a renewal pace of every 80 to 90
years. This makes it especially vulnerable to pollution. In addition, if we take into account that this sea
entails 6% of the whole of marine species even if it represents only 1% of the global sea range, then we
realise the urging need for its protection. For the European Union the big challenge is to achieve a
considerable and countable reduction of marine pollution in the Mediterranean through specific and
concrete action plans.
This is a problem needing solutions on multiple levels and for this reason there has to be a mobilisation
and cooperation of different Commission services and regional authorities. This is the reason why Mr. Poto
nik and I invited you today.
The starting point for confronting a problem is always an in-depth analysis.
Which are its causes? Mr. Poto nik's presentation was very clear and as you saw there are concrete
planned actions for studying the problem further.
Moreover, the consequences of the marine pollution have to be measured. There are negative effects in
the whole ecosystem and therefore in fisheries as well. The cases of marine species which are in danger
because of the plastic marine litter are known. The damage caused by the biological dissolution of plastics
in the food chain of the marine ecosystem and the threat that this represents to human health is also clear.
Beyond these direct consequences, marine litter also affects the main financial sectors active around the
Mediterranean, such as the development of sea areas, tourism and the shipping industry. As Commissioner
for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries, I intend to pull all the strings at my disposal to see the problem of
marine litter in the Mediterranean fully addressed.
We have to admit that the mobilisation of people is impressive. Thousands of citizens around the world are
campaigning for action to be taken. The latest example of such a mobilisation was the online campaign
Clean and Protect the Mediterranean from the organisation Change.org. The participants asked the
European Commission to put forward an immediate solution to the issue of plastic litter pollution.
So, what can we do? There are two parts in the process of solving this problem.
The first part is the limitation of pollution at its source. Regarding the plastic litter pollution, the most
efficient measure would be the limitation or ban of use of plastic bags. Inside the European Union is issue
is handled differently in each member-State. The most striking example is Italy, where plastic bags were
banned from use since the beginning of the year. There are relevant measures taken in other memberStates as well. In Ireland, for instance, which was the first country to have ever taken action on the matter,
there is a duty on the plastic bags of around 22 cents since 2002 and this has resulted in a significant
reduction of the plastic bags use. In Belgium there is a voluntary agreement of the retails sales sector not
to issue or at least to charge the one-use plastic bags and as a result consumers now prefer multiple-use
bags, which aren't necessarily plastic. The same goes for Germany and Denmark, where shops charge
plastic bags despite the lack of an existing relevant legislation. Also, in many countries outside of the
European Union the use of plastic bags is restricted by law or even forbidden: in many States in the USA, in
India, South Africa, New Zealand and Bangladesh there are legislative or voluntary projects on the matter
either already implemented or in the phase of elaboration.
The issue of banning plastic bags was also put on the agenda of the Council of Ministers of Environment,
on Austrian initiative after the case of Italy. In the discussion that followed it was clear that all States
agreed upon the one or the other form of banning plastic bags, and thus the Commission will now have to
examine in detail the problem and its solutions.
This is for "restricting the problem at its source".
The second part of the solution is decontamination. Here the actions that need to be taken are more
difficult, time-consuming and expensive. Of course rising citizens' awareness and of NGOs mobilisation can
have a significant impact on the issue. Nevertheless, the quantity of marine litter is such that these actions
alone are not enough. There has to be a similar intervention in the open seas as well, where we can trace a
big amount of marine litter and especially plastic litter.

The services under my responsibility will take action in this context: the
European Fisheries Fund offers now to fishermen and stakeholders the
possibility to develop projects that may contribute to the preservation of the
marine environment, such as for instance through "fishing for litter"
initiatives.
Such projects are already on-going in some countries, for example in France, where the initiative will be
launched on May 20th. In specific, a pilot project will be launched under the auspices and funding of the
European Fisheries Fund and in cooperation with the sectors of fisheries and plastics industry whereby

the

marine litter will be collected by special fishing vessels and sent for
treatment.
There will be a multiple benefit from this. On the one hand, we will have a visible result in terms of

Much of the litter collected will be recyclable, so this will also

have an extra benefit for the economy. On the other hand, fishermen will be able to engage
decontamination.

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in an alternative activity which will bring them additional income, especially during the time periods when
they stop fishing.

Turn: Conservation and recycling key to long-term health

of plastics industry
Targeted News Service 2013 [1/8 SPI Expands Mission to Welcome Brand
Owners, Pursue 'Zero Waste' Strategies
The Plastics Industry Trade Association agreed by a 95.7
to engage in new zerowaste pursuits to advance recycling. These changes were unanimously adopted by SPI's
Voting representatives of SPI:

percent margin to add brand owners into the membership ranks as well as

National Board at the association's May 23, 2012, SPI Board Meeting in Indianapolis and presented to the
voting membership for final approval in the form of Bylaws amendments.
Effective immediately, SPI's revised mission is:
"To advance a pro-manufacturing agenda, strengthen global competitiveness, improve productivity and
pursue zero-waste strategies for the U.S. plastics industry."
"We have always brought the best in advocacy, trade show and communication services to the plastics
industry supply chain," said William R. Carteaux, president and CEO, SPI. "But there was one key

By providing crucial resources to advance a

brand owner's sustainability and recycling initiatives, as well as providing
them direct access to lawmakers and regulators who need to hear from brand
owners, SPI completes the plastics supply chain communications loop that
benefit the entire industry. From resin suppliers and equipment makers to processors and brand
owners, SPI is proud to represent all facets of the U.S. plastics industry ."
component missing: the brand owners.

Recycling is key to the long-term future of plastic

Plastics News 2011 [10/10 CCMA talks recycling, materials separation]
it behooves industry to
be involved in the recycling stream as an active player . He pointed to the recent
Clark, who joined the molder as manager of its PET recycling plant, said

decision by major Canadian grocers to require that clamshell food containers be thermoformed from
recyclable PET, as well as the Society of the Plastics Industry Inc.'s $100,000 grant to increase U.S.

Clark points to those actions as evidence that the

movement toward post-consumer recycled material is growing.
Extended producer responsibility plans - in which producers, usually brand owners, are held
responsible for the costs of managing their products at the end of life - are under consideration in
some states, and are already in place in Canada and Europe. P lastics companies
recycling of thermoformed products.

need to be aware of the complexity of the situation, Clark said.

Already, paint and electronics manufacturers in North America are funding

recycling drives, which gives them more control as opposed to government-mandated
plans, he said.

The issues we have

today in terms of material resources, energy savings, reducing carbon
footprint - all of those types of things benefit from recycling."
The good news for the plastics industry is that the U.S. marketplace for
reclaimed material continues to grow, especially at a regional level.
"Keeping waste out of landfills is a very 1970s response to environmentalism.

Turn: Recycling good for plastics industry

Wolbert 2013 [Brad, 2/5, New plastics recycling study shows potential for
economic growth http://dnr.wi.gov/news/Weekly/Article_Lookup.asp?
id=2468]

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Wisconsin could realize substantial economic rewards and jobs

growth by recycling more of the valuable plastics that currently end up in its landfills,
MADISON -

concludes a recent study commissioned by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources.

used plastics have real monetary value to processors and

manufacturers within Wisconsin. Yet despite a comprehensive statewide recycling program and a
The study found that

strong recycling ethic, hundreds of tons of valuable plastics are still sent to Wisconsin landfills every day.
The study estimates some $64 million in recyclable plastic materials is landfilled each year.
DNR commissioned the study to identify actions that can be taken now to capture and recycle more of
these valuable used plastics, thereby creating jobs and boosting state economic development. "In addition
to the benefits to businesses and employment, increasing plastics recycling would provide environmental
benefits by prolonging the life of landfills and reducing pollution," said Cynthia Moore, DNR recycling
program coordinator,.
The study, authored jointly by Foth Infrastructure and Environment and by Moore Recycling Associates,
lists actions Wisconsin can take to substantially increase plastics recovery rates. Moore said the actions
"could be implemented individually or as a coordinated approach, and target the most valuable and
commonly used plastic containers, such as consumer beverage bottles and containers for household
cleaning products."
The study also emphasizes the potential to increase recycling of plastic bags and other film plastics, as
well as the less commonly recovered rigid plastics such as clamshell containers, margarine tubs and drink
cups. Spurred by this study, the DNR has already agreed to conduct a pilot project this spring to expand
recycling of flexible film packaging. The film recycling project will be carried out under a Memorandum of
Understanding with two national business groups, the American Chemistry Council's Flexible Film Recycling
Group and the Sustainable Packaging Coalition's GreenBlue Foundation.
The project will focus on expanding consumer recycling of plastic film packaging, extending recycling
opportunities at small and mid-sized businesses in the state. "This public-private partnership is a win-win
for both the environment and the economy," said DNR Secretary Cathy Stepp.
Currently, Wisconsin's plastic industry is ranked 8th nationally in plastics industry employment, providing
jobs for some 40,000 people, with a direct payroll of $1.6 billion. " Increasing

plastics recycling
in the state will open the door for greater economic and job development
particularly through expansion of existing business but also in creation of new
business," said Dan Krivit, senior project manager for Foth and co-author of the report.
"There is a strong and growing demand for recycled plastics," says Patty Moore,
President of Moore Recycling Associates, a consulting firm that specializes in plastics recycling. "Even the
highest volume, highest value plastic items are only recycled at about 30 percent nationally. With a
coordinated approach to increasing the supply of used plastics from Wisconsin, the state could triple its
plastics recycling rate and still not exceed the demand from domestic markets, many of which are located
right in Wisconsin."

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AT: ImpactEconomy

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N/UQEconomy
The US economy is headed to recession

New York Daily News June 26th [2014 United States of Anemia
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/united-states-anemia-article1.1844080]\]
The health of the U.S. economy is even worse than the long-term
unemployed might have imagined.
The savants who measure such things reported that the countrys gross domestic product
shrank astonishingly in the first quarter of the year at the rate of 2.9% when a
vibrant economy would have grown by that much.
At a time when polls show Americans looking dimly on President Obamas handling of foreign affairs, the
sudden downward economic arrow may well end up battering him on the domestic front as well. The White
House reached for the convenient explanation du jour:

The winters polar vortex plunged much of the country into a deep freeze and
slashed consumer spending and exports.
Even if the administration is right about cause and effect, thats cold comfort. An economy
knocked to its knees by harsh weather can hardly be considered healthy .
Should business fail to pick up substantially in this quarter many predict that it has Americans
could wake up to find that they are suffering through a n officially declared
recession.

Economy is decliningGDP contraction and consumer

confidence prove
House 6/24 (Johnathan, writer for the WSJ, http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-gdp-contracted-at-2-9pace-in-first-quarter-1403699600)

the U.S.
economy in the first quarter, renewing doubts about the strength of the nation's five-year-old recovery.
Weather disruptions at home and weak demand abroad caused a contraction of rare severity in

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, fell at
a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.9% in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said in its third
reading of the data Wednesday. That was a sharp downward revision from the previous estimate that

represented the fastest rate of decline since

the recession, and was the largest drop recorded since the end of World War
II that wasn't part of a recession. To be sure, many signs since March, including reports of
output fell at an annual rate of 1%. It also

growth in consumer spending, business investment and hiring, indicate the first quarter doesn't mark the
start of a new recession. And revisions in future years could alter the first-quarter figure. J.P. Morgan Chase
economist Michael Feroli described the decline as "mostly a confluence of several negative, but mostly

the severity of the drop, he said, "calls into question how

much vigor there is in the pace of activity" going forward . Why the GDP Report Stinks,
And Why Nobody Cares Economists React to -2.9% Q1 GDP Revision: 'Different
Shades of Nasty' U.S. Durable Goods Orders Drop 1.0% in May Five Things to Know
one-off, factors." But

About the Latest GDP Report Sign Up: Receive the Capital Journal Daybreak newsletter in your inbox One
factor in the government's revision of first-quarter output was difficulty in estimating the impact of the
Affordable Care Act on health-care expenditures. Actual health spending came in substantially lower than
expected based on ACA enrollments and Medicaid data, declining at a 1.4% annualized pace in the period
compared with an earlier estimate of a 9.1% increase. Beyond that, consumer spending on goods,

a weakness that
economists have attributed, at least in part, to unusually harsh winter
weather. Overall consumer spending on goods and services, which accounts
for more than two thirds of economic output, increased at an annual rate of
1%, off from the earlier estimate of 3.1% growth. The Commerce report
business outlays on equipment and housing investment were all soft,

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showed businesses sharply drawing down inventories in the first quarter after
building them up to levels deemed unsustainable by economists late last
year. The move subtracted 1.7 percentage points from growth. Exports in the period fell by nearly 10%, a
new sign of a challenging global economic environment. The European recovery remains anemic, while
growth in fast-expanding emerging markets such as China and Brazil has downshifted. A front-end loader is
hoisted ontoaship in California in March. Bloomberg News The severity of the first-quarter downturn is at
odds with other data showing greater strength in the economy, especially a recent pickup in job creation.
Since World War II, there have been 15 other quarters during which GDP contracted by this amount or
more. In 14 of those 15 quarters, hiring contracted along with output. Meanwhile, early data from the
second quarter indicate the economy has improved this spring, as warmer weather has helped release
pent-up demand. Sales of new homes surged to a six-year high last month, while existing-home sales rose
to their highest level since October, data released earlier this week showed. "Things are looking very
strong here in Naples," said Anthony Solomon, owner of The Ronto Group, a land developer in Naples, Fla.
"In all our communities, we're seeing great appetite from home builders and from end buyers." Still, the
depth of the first-quarter decline in output means growth during the first half of the year likely will fall
below the economy's average rate of just over 2% since it emerged from recession in June 2009. That is
below the longer-term growth rate, during recent decades, of slightly more than 3%. "It does not sound like
the economy has reached escape velocity no matter how you try to spin it," said Chris Rupkey, an
economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. For economic output to ratchet up to a healthier long-term trend,
economists say consumer spending must rise to its prerecession pace of about 3% growth. But five years
into the recovery, high unemployment and stagnant incomes continue to restrain the American consumer.
"We

just don't see consumer spending coming back to the levels that
they were before," Virginia McDowell, chief executive of Isle of Capri Casinos, Inc., recently told
investors at a presentation of the company's fourth-quarter earnings. "We continue to get
pressured on the top line because our consumer spending habits
have changed," Ms. McDowell said.

US economy is in decline
Politico June 25th [2014 Shrinking economy trouble for Democrats
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/06/united-states-economy-democrats108290.html]
The United States economy contracted by a shocking 2.9 percent in the first
quarter of the year, a much worse than expected number that could undermine

hopes by the White House and congressional Democrats to run on improving conditions in the fall midterm
elections.

The number is a snap shot of the past and in part the result of a terrible
winter slowing down everything from home construction to personal shopping
to business inventory growth. The second quarter should be significantly better.

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AT: ImpactAerospace

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N/UQ: Aerospace Declining

Aerospace is on the decline
Jonathan D. Salant 2013( December 18, 2013 Aerospace Industry sales to decrease to
1% U.S Trade Group Says, Bloomberg Business week, News From Bloomberg
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-12-18/aerospace-industry-sales-to-decline-1-percent-u-dot-s-dottrade-group-says)

The U.S. aerospace industrys sales will decline about 1 percent to

$220.1 billion this year as companies grapple with some of its
greatest challenges in decades, a trade organization predicted. While the
Aerospace Industries Association at this time last year projected
that demand on the commercial side would help boost 2013 revenue
by 2.8 percent, that growth wasnt enough to compensate for drops
in the military and space markets, according to a report by the
group. Sequestration effects on the industry and Defense Department have forced
industry layoffs and divestitures and will continue to put pressure on the fragile industrial
base, the Arlington, Virginia-based group said in its year-end review and annual forecast.
STORY: Japan's Incredible Shrinking Empire

The associations forecast reflects

U.S. defense budget cuts, including the across-the-board budget
reductions known as sequestration that would be partially repealed
under a $1 trillion federal spending plan agreed to by congressional
negotiators. Civilian aviation sales were projected to rise 7.7 percent to $67 billion this
year from 2012, according to the report. Those gains will be offset by a 6.2 percent drop in
military aircraft revenue and declines in missile, space and other related areas in 2013, the
report said. F-35 Jet The association said it expected aerospace sales to increase 5.5 percent
in 2014 to $232.1 billion. The biggest boost was set to come from commercial aircraft sales,
with a 7.6 percent increase to $72.1 billion, it predicted. STORY: Oil Industry Kills California
Assembly Bill to Support Biofuel Expansion Military aircraft sales were projected to rise 2.9
percent to $57.6 billion next year.

Amid the budget reductions, the Pentagon

has protected big programs it considers high priority. That includes
Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT:US)s F-35 jet, the militarys costliest
weapons system. Some contractors also have benefited from
aerospace exports, which have shown growth in both civil and
military sectors, according to the report.

Aerospace Budget and field declining

By Abby Lombardi (September 26, 2011 Jobs for Aerospace engineers declining
wanted analytics https://www.wantedanalytics.com/analysis/posts/jobs-for-aerospaceengineers-declining)

Hiring demand for Aerospace Engineers in the US declined in July

and August, leading up to the official close of the space program in
September. In August, 1,200 job ads were posted for this occupation, a
41% decline versus the 4-year high which was marked in January
2008.
Demand for aerospace decreasing right now on the decline SoCal
proves
Muhammed El-Hassan (2/22/14Southern California Aerospace Industry
Hits Turbulence, Economic outlook, Los Angeles Daily News
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Southern Californias once high-flying aerospace industry navigated

major disappointment last year and started 2014 with even more
turbulence. A region whose economy was at one time largely
defined by aircraft and space companies continued to see its former
stature in this critical economic sector decline. In the span of a few
months, Southern Californians learned that a major local aircraft
assembly line would close, the federal government left the state out
of an important trial for an emerging class of aviation technology
and the region missed out on a new airliner program that could have
created thousands of local jobs. On top of that, a longtime local aerospace program may
be just a few years from closure. Were probably in a transition period where were looking at some
changes happening in conventional aviation, both the military side of things and the commercial side of
things, said Robert Kleinhenz, chief economist at the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp.
But at the same time, were looking at some new areas of opportunity. In September, Boeing broke
some bad news that the company, the local community and members of Congress spent years trying to
prevent or delay.

The aerospace giant announced that its massive Long

Beach plant where it has built C-17 military cargo planes for more
than two decades would close in 2015 because of insufficient
orders. That announcement was the culmination of a stubborn tug
of war between Boeing and its supporters at one end and the
shifting realities of an aerospace marketplace that saw federal
government dollars and international orders dry up for the large,
dynamic airlifter known as the Globemaster III. That C-17 is the last major
conventional airplane assembled in the Golden State. The Long Beach plant closure will leave about
2,000 local Boeing employees in search of new work, and place another hurdle in front of Southern
Californias efforts to recover from the lingering impact of the Great Recession. The C-17 is Californias
last jet. Losing it will hurt, said Richard Aboulafia, aerospace analyst with the Teal Group Corp. in Fairfax,

The plants closure will ripple through the regions

economy beyond the loss of high-paying jobs as local aerospace
suppliers and even restaurants that cater to Boeing employees see a
loss of business. For example, each direct aerospace job in Los Angeles County supports two
Va., in an email.

additional jobs through indirect and induced effects, according to a report by the LAEDC. With an
average annual pay of $81,536, Los Angeles County aerospace manufacturing jobs pay 50 percent more
than the typical manufacturing position.

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N/U: Heg Low

US is in relative economic decline, dooming long-term US
military leadership
Colby and Lettow July 3rd [2014, Elbridge Colby is the Robert M. Gates
fellow at the Center for a New American Security. Paul Lettow was senior
director for strategic planning on the U.S. National Security Council staff from
2007 to 2009.
Have We Hit Peak America? Foreign Policy Blog
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/07/03/have_we_hit_peak_america]
This shift in economic growth toward the developing world is going to have
strategic consequences. Military power ultimately derives from wealth. It is often noted that the
United States spends more on defense than the next 10 countries combined. But growth in military
spending correlates with GDP growth, so as other economies grow, those
countries will likely spend more on defense, reducing the relative military
power of the United States. Already, trends in global defense spending show a
rapid and marked shift from the United States and its allies toward emerging
economies, especially China. In 2011, the United States and its partners accounted for
approximately 80 percent of the military spending by the 15 countries with the largest defense budgets.
But, according to a McKinsey study, that share could fall significantly over the next eight years -- perhaps
to as low as 55 percent.

The resulting deterioration in American military superiority has already

begun, as the countries benefiting most rapidly from globalization are using
their newfound wealth to build military capacity, especially in high-tech
weaponry. As Robert Work and Shawn Brimley of the Center for a New American Security wrote this
year: "[T]he dominance enjoyed by the United States in the late 1990s/early 2000s in
the areas of high-end sensors, guided weaponry, battle networking, space
and cyberspace systems, and stealth technology has started to erode . Moreover,
this erosion is now occurring at an accelerated rate." (Work has since been confirmed as deputy secretary
of defense.)
China, in particular, is acquiring higher-end capabilities and working to establish "no-go zones" in its near
abroad in the hopes of denying U.S. forces the ability to operate in the Western Pacific. China's declared
defense budget grew 12 percent this year -- and has grown at least ninefold since 2000 -- and most
experts think its real defense spending is considerably larger. The International Institute for Strategic
Studies has judged that Beijing will spend as much on defense as Washington does by the late 2020s or
early 2030s. Meanwhile, regional powers like Iran -- and even nonstate actors like Hezbollah -- are
becoming more militarily formidable as it becomes easier to obtain precision-guided munitions and thus
threaten U.S. power-projection capabilities.

Simultaneously, the United States is slashing its defense spending while

allocating its remaining funds less strategically. Not only has the Defense Department
estimated that it has already cut almost $600 billion from its budget plans for the next decade, but if
current trends continue, by 2021 nearly half of the Pentagon's budget will go to personnel-related costs,
rather than procurement, training, research and development, or operations.

The U.S. National Intelligence Council recently projected the future

distribution of global power using two distinct methodologies that
incorporated a range of "hard" and "soft" factors. By both estimates, the U.S.
share of global power will fall dramatically, from around 25 percent in 2010 to
around 15 percent in 2050. The National Intelligence Council predicted that over the same
period, the relative power of the European Union and Japan will fall significantly as well .

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America is in decline and public support for heg is eroded

Colby and Lettow July 3rd [2014, Elbridge Colby is the Robert M. Gates
fellow at the Center for a New American Security. Paul Lettow was senior
director for strategic planning on the U.S. National Security Council staff from
2007 to 2009.
Have We Hit Peak America? Foreign Policy Blog
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/07/03/have_we_hit_peak_america]
AMERICAN LEADERSHIP IN THE WORLD IS IMPERILED. AND AT A FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL,
THE AMERICAN PEOPLE SENSE IT. A NUMBER OF RECENT POLLS SHOW THAT MORE
AMERICANS THAN EVER BEFORE -- NEARLY 60 PERCENT, IN SOME CASES -- BELIEVE U.S.
POWER IS WANING.

In other words, a greater number of Americans are worried about diminishing U.S. influence today than in
the face of feared Soviet technological superiority in the late 1950s, the Vietnam quagmire of the late
1960s, the 1973 oil embargo, the apparent resurgence of Soviet power around the 1979 invasion of
Afghanistan, and the economic concerns that plagued the late 1980s -- the five waves of so-called declinist
anxiety that political scientist Samuel Huntington famously identified.

Many analysts have attributed Americans' current anxiety to the aftershock of

waging two long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. But the polls actually reflect something
deeper and more potent -- a legitimate, increasingly tactile uncertainty in the
minds of the American people created by changes in the world and in
America's competitive position, which they feel far more immediately than do the participants
in Washington policy debates. Average Americans do not experience the world through the lens of greatpower rivalry or U.S. leadership abroad, but rather through that of an increasingly competitive globalized
labor market, stagnating income growth among the middle class, and deep and unresolved worries about
their children's future. A recent CNN poll, for instance, found that Americans think by a 2-to-1 margin that

They are questioning the promise of

growth and expanding opportunity -- the very substance of the American
dream.
This anxiety is real and justified, and it lies behind much of the public's
support for withdrawing from the world, for retrenchment . Yet American leadership
their children's lives will be worse than their own.

and engagement remain essential. The United States cannot hide from the world. Rather, it must compete.
And if it competes well, it can restore not only its economic health, but also its strength for the long haul.
That resilience will preserve Americans' ability to determine their fate and the nation's ability to lead in the
way its interests require.

Debt and entitlements doom US heg

Colby and Lettow July 3rd [2014, Elbridge Colby is the Robert M. Gates
fellow at the Center for a New American Security. Paul Lettow was senior
director for strategic planning on the U.S. National Security Council staff from
2007 to 2009.
Have We Hit Peak America? Foreign Policy Blog
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/07/03/have_we_hit_peak_america]
The United States is worsening this problem by refusing to confront its federal
debt and deficits. Unsustainable fiscal policy will limit U.S. competitiveness and
freedom of action in the world with a severity and alacrity not remotely appreciated in
today's U.S. foreign-policy debates. The total federal debt currently held by the public, which includes
foreign creditors, is approximately $13 trillion. That is almost three-quarters of U.S. GDP, the highest it has

the drivers of the debt

are entitlement programs that will impose enormous costs indefinitely.
ever been except for a brief period during and after World War II. Moreover,

Today, well over 60 percent of federal revenue is consumed by spending on Social Security, the major
health-care programs (including Medicare, Medicaid, and subsidies under the Affordable Care Act), and
interest payments on the federal debt.

By 2043, spending on entitlements and net

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interest payments will consume all federal revenue, according to the Congressional
Budget Office. Every dollar the U.S. government spends on anything else -- defense, intelligence, foreign
affairs, the federal justice system, infrastructure, science and technology, education, the space program -will be borrowed. And by that time, the total federal debt held by the public will far exceed U.S. GDP.
Recent attempts to address the problem have only resulted in fiasco . The
"sequester" imposed automatic, arbitrary, across-the-board cuts to discretionary spending -- precisely the

with the heaviest burden falling on

defense. Most spending for entitlements was untouched. One could hardly
imagine an outcome more likely to reduce American power, and quickly.
The unwillingness to choose a sustainable fiscal path is forcing the United
States to forgo the investments necessary to sustain the domestic sources of
its power, and it is already eroding its strength abroad . Among allies, adversaries, and
swing states alike, U.S. fiscal policy is increasingly calling into question America's
ability to lead globally.
spending that is not causing the fiscal problem --

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AT: Heg Impact

Decline inevitable counterbalancing which isnt a bad
thing
Maher, 2011 (Richard- a Ph.D. candidate in the Political Science department at Brown University.,
a B.A. in Political Science from the University of Michigan, an M.Sc. in Political Theory from the London
School of Economics, and an M.A. in Political Science from Brown University.research areas include alliance
politics, American foreign policy, European foreign and security policy, nuclear weapons, and international
security., The Paradox of American Unipolarity: Why the United States May Be Better Off in a Post-Unipolar
World, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0030438710000633, Volume 55, Issue 1, 2011,
Pages 5368-aayush)

As we witness the emergence (or re-emergence) of great powers in other

parts of the world, we realize that American predominance cannot
last forever . It is inevitable that the distribution of power and influence
will become more balanced in the future, and that the United States will
necessarily see its relative power decline. While the United States
naturally should avoid hastening the end of this current period of
American predominance, it should not look upon the next period of global politics and
international history with dread or foreboding. It certainly should not seek to
maintain its predominance at any cost, devoting unlimited
ambition, resources, and prestige to the cause. In fact, contrary to
what many have argued about the importance of maintaining its
predominance, America's position in the worldboth at home and
internationally could very well be strengthened once its era of
preeminence is over . It is, therefore, necessary for the United States
to start thinking about how best to position itself in the postunipolar world .

Mutlipolarity insures global sustainability and security

solves the reasons heg is good.
Layne, 2009 (Christopher Layne, PhD is Robert M. Gates Chair in Intelligence and National
Security at the George Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University, The
Waning of U.S. HegemonyMyth or Reality?,
http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/isec.2009.34.1.147, July 7, 2009.)

Brooks and Wohlforth make a strong case for

unipolar stability. But there is less to their argument than meets the
unipolar stability? Superficially,

eye .42 Their case is based on a freeze-frame view of the distribution of

capabilities in the international system; they do not engage the
argument that, like all hegemonic systems, the American era of
unipolarity contains the seeds of its own demise. Hegemons sprint to
the front of the great power pack because of economic leadership based on
productivity and technological innovation. Over time, however, knowhow, technology, and managerial skills diffuse throughout the international
economic system, which allows other states to catch up. Similarly,
leadership costs sap the hegemons power and push it into
decline.43 A key question is whether the early decades of the twenty-first century will
witness the decline of U.S. hegemony. In this respect, the debate

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about unipolar stability is misleading. After all, despite their claim at the beginning of
World Out of Balance that unipolarity is robust and that U.S. hegemony will endure well
into the future, Brooks and Wohlforth actually concede that unipolarity is
not likely to last more than another twenty years, which is not very
long at all .44 Not only is this a weak case for unipolarity; it is also an
implicit admission thatalthough it has yet to bear fruitother states
are engaged in counterbalancing the United States, and this is
spurring an ongoing process of multipolarization .45 toward multipolarity?
The ascent of new great powers would be the strongest evidence
of multipolarization , and the two most important indicators of whether this is happening are
relative growth rates and shares of world GDP.46 Here, there is evidence that as the NIC, Khanna,
Mahbubani, and, to a point, Zakaria contend, global economic power is flowing from the United States
and Europe to Asia.47 The shift of economic clout to East Asia is important because it could propel Chinas
ascentthus hastening the relative decline of U.S. powerand also because emerging regional
multipolarity could trigger future major power war. China, of course, is the poster child for Asias rise, and
many analysts including the NIC, Khanna, and (implicitly) Mahbubani and Zakariaagree that China is
the rising power most likely to challenge U.S. hegemony.48 Unsurprisingly, Brooks and Wohlforth are
skeptical about Chinas rise, and they dismiss the idea that China could become a viable counterweight to
a hegemonic United States within any meaningful time frame.49 Their analysis, however, is static. For
sure, the United States still has an impressive lead in the categories they measure.50 Looking ahead,

China, which already has overtaken the

United States as the worlds leading manufacturera crown the United States
however, the trend lines appear to favor

wore for more than a century.51 China also may overtake the United States in GDP in the next ten to
fifteen years. In 2003 Goldman Sachs predicted that China would pass the United States in GDP by 2041,
but in 2008 it revised the time frame to 2028.52 And, in early 2009, the Economist Intelligence Unit
predicted that Chinas GDP would surpass the United States in 2021.53 Empirically, then, there are

indications that the unipolar era is drawing to a close, and that the
coming decades could witness a power transition.54

Multipolarity good leads to global cooperation

Layne, Texas A&M University School of Government Chair
in Intelligence and National Security, 6
[Christopher, The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, The Unipolar Illusion Revisited The
Coming of the United States' Unipolar Moment, 2006,
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/international_security/v031/31.2layne.html,
accessed 7-9-13 BLE]
Second, although regional balancing could work to the United States'
advantage, it would be more likely to do so in a future multipolar
system rather than in a unipolar one. The Cold War illustrates this point.
During the Cold War, the United States was hegemonic in the non-Soviet
world. Although deeply ambivalent (or worse) about U.S. hegemony, the West
Europeans nonetheless acceptedreluctantlyU.S. primacy because the
United States protected them from the Soviet threat. 58 In the absence of
a hostile countervailing pole (or poles) of power in today's unipolar
world, however, there is a higher risk that otherseven erstwhile U.S.
allieswill come to see U.S. hegemony as a greater threat than U.S.
preponderance during the Cold War.

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The likelihood that the major Eurasian powers may engage in

regional balancing, in fact, is a more powerful argument for an
offshore balancing strategy than it is for a hegemonic one: as an
offshore balancer in a multipolar world, the United States could
safely retract its military power from Eurasia because the regional
powers would focus their strategic attention primarily on the
security threats posed by their neighbors rather than on the United
States. 59 The United States could enhance its relative power
position simply by standing on the sidelines while security
competitions sapped the relative power positions of the major
Eurasian powers.

Multipolarity helps the world economy

World Bank 10

[Multipolarity to Bring Benefits and New Challenges to the Developing

World
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTDECPROSPECTS/EXT
GDH/0,,contentMDK:22915330~menuPK:7935814~pagePK:64167689~piPK:6
4167673~theSitePK:7933464,00.html, accessed 7-9-13 BLE]
A more multipolar global economy will, on balance, be positive for
developing countries as a wholethough not necessarily for each of
them individually. Growth spilloversflowing from trade, finance,
migration, and technology channels will induce technological
transfer, spur demand for exports, and improve the terms of trade in
developing countries as well as enable them to develop their
domestic agricultural and manufacturing industries. For example,
since 1990, bilateral trade f lows between the least developed countries
(LDCs) and the major emerging economies have increased threefold; trade
wiThemerging economies now accounts for a greater share of LDCs bilateral
trade flows than their trade with major advanced economies. Moreover, a
more diff use distribution of global growth will also create new
external growth drivers, meaning that idiosyncratic shocks in
individual growth pole economies will have less impact on the
volatility of external demand in those countries than at present. This
characteristic was evident in the aftermath of the 200809 financial crisis,
when cross-border M&A originating in emerging economies accounted for
more than a quarter of the value of all deals in 2009 and 2010. Greater
multipolarity could also have a tangible effect on patterns of foreign
aid, as increased aid disbursements by emerging economies push
official development assistance to even greater shares of gross
national income in LDCs.

A. Transition to multipolarity now

Brzezinski, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Counselor and Trustee, Feist, CNNs Washington Bureau
Chief and Senior Vice President 12

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(Zbigniew, Former White House National Security Adviser, Sam, March 29,
2012, Council of Foreign Relations, A Conversation With Zbigniew
Brzezinski, http://www.cfr.org/us-strategy-and-politics/conversation-zbigniewbrzezinski/p27829, accessed 7/4/12, YGS)
QUESTIONER: Thank you very much. Dr. Brzezinski, I want to ask you about
the other side of the coin. I was just at the World -- the Affordability World
Security (sic\Affordable World Security two-day meeting here in town that
was put on by the East-West Center and Kerry Foundation (ph), and had an
amazing collection of people. But what they said that means is that we have
to address climate, water, food, population, jobs -- I mean, it was this long list
of things that we have to figure out how to work together on solving them so
that we all sort of stay alive. How do we make that happen? BRZEZINSKI:
Well, you make that happen by avoiding the kind of global politics that we
have had for the last 200 years. And that is to say we have to have entities
that are to some extent balanced in equilibrium and as there a consequence
of which they realize they cannot prevail. And I think what gives me some
degree of optimism is also the knowledge that we now live in a world in
which in fact hegemony by a single power is not attainable because
the people the worldwide are politically awakened. I've written a
great deal about the notion of the global political awakening, and
that's a new phenomenon; we've never had that historically. It only started
with the French Revolution, then it spread to Asia with World War I and its
aftermath. It's now global, and that makes it much more difficult for
any power to think it can be dominant. You know, President George Bush
II once said that God has chosen America to be the model for the world. Well,
you know, I don't know where he got this information -- whether it was from
the CIA -- my sources tell me that God is neutral on these subjects.
(Laughter.) But in any case, the world is no longer congenial to
domination by a single power. So we and the Chinese are operating
in a very different environment from the one in which we and the
Soviets competed and threatened each other, or we and the Nazis
fought against each other or the British and the French fought
against the Germans and then we joined in in World War I and so
forth, because these problems are potentially as destructive or even more
destructive than the wars that we have fought. FEIST: Question. Yes sir?
QUESTIONER: Zbig, my question to you is a follow-on for really, I think, what
you've just been talking about. And that is, you've laid out a pretty
sophisticated kind of road map, as you say -- but maybe a vision for where
the United States should go in terms of thinking about its role. But -BRZEZINSKI: You'd better speak up, because I'm not sure everyone can hear
you. QUESTIONER: I'm sorry. But -- do we have a political culture and a
political system that is capable of thinking in these terms? Or do we have to
instead talk about exceptionalism and think in terms of bumper sticker terms
in terms of foreign policy? BRZEZINSKI: Well, that's one of my grave concerns
in my book. In fact, I talk about some of the basic structural weaknesses
of America, which actually threaten our ability to play a preeminent
role. And I leave that slightly open in terms of whether we will or will not be
able to do it.

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Multipolarity is inevitable but transition now is key the

alternative is political turmoil and deadly transition wars
Posen, MIT Political Science Professor, 13
[Barry R., Jan/Feb 2013, Foreign Affairs, Pull Back, Vol. 92, Issue 1,
Academic Search Complete, accessed 7/2/13, WD]
Shifting to a more restrained global stance would yield meaningful
benefits for the United States, saving lives and resources and
preventing pushback, provided Washington makes deliberate and
prudent moves now to prepare its allies to take on the responsibility
for their own defense. Scaling down the U.S. military's presence over
a decade would give partners plenty of time to fortify their own
militaries and develop the political and diplomatic machinery to look
after their own affairs. Gradual disengagement would also reduce
the chances of creating security vacuums, which opportunistic
regional powers might try to fill.
U.S. allies, of course, will do everything they can to persuade
Washington to keep its current policies in place. Some will promise
improvements to their military forces that they will then abandon when it is
convenient. Some will claim there is nothing more they can contribute, that
their domestic political and economic constraints matter more than
America's. Others will try to divert the discussion to shared values and
principles. Still others will hint that they will bandwagon with strong
neighbors rather than balance against them. A few may even threaten to
turn belligerent.
U.S. policymakers will need to remain cool in the face of such tactics
and keep in mind that these wealthy allies are unlikely to surrender
their sovereignty to regional powers. Indeed, history has shown that
states more often balance against the powerful than bandwagon with them.
As for potential adversaries, the United States can continue to deter
actions that threaten its vital interests by defining those interests
narrowly, stating them clearly, and maintaining enough military
power to protect them.
Of course, the United States could do none of these things and
instead continue on its present track, wasting resources and earning
the enmity of some states and peoples while infantilizing others.
Perhaps current economic and geopolitical trends will reverse themselves,
and the existing strategy will leave Washington comfortably in the driver's
seat, with others eager to live according to its rules. But if the U.S. debt
keeps growing and power continues to shift to other countries, some
future economic or political crisis could force Washington to switch
course abruptly, compelling friendly and not-so-friendly countries to
adapt suddenly. That seems like the more dangerous path.

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AT: North Korea Impact

North Korea threat exaggeratedLeveraging air power is
counterproductive
Carpenter 13- Ted Galen, senior fellow for defense and foreign policy
studies at the Cato Institute, Ph.D. in U.S. diplomatic history from the
University of Texas (On North Korea, Keep Calm and Carry On, April 11,
2013 http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/north-korea-keep-calmcarry\\CLans)
Someday the United States may confront the reality of a North Korea
possessing both a nuclear arsenal and reliable, long-range delivery
systems. But that is not the situation today. American policy makers and
opinion leaders

should avoid acting like Chicken Little assuming that the

sky is falling . The danger of an attack on the U.S. homeland is minuscule. North Koreas leaders
are thuggish and weird, but they are not suicidal even if they had the capability to launch such an

U.S.
leaders should avoid measures that might convince Pyongyang that Washington is pursuing a
forcible regime-change strategy. Moves such as the fly over of South Korea by
B-2 bombers during the recent joint military exercises with Seoul or the subsequent
deployment of F-22 fighters could cause that perception, lead to a miscalculation, and
perhaps trigger a war that no one not even the North Korean
regime wants. Now is the time for caution, not panic mongering or
military posturing.
attack. Instead of worrying about an improbable, suicidal North Korean assault on the United States,

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AT: Russia Impact

US dominance pisses off Russia, increasing the risk of
nuclear war
Graam Allison, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard
Kennedy School, October, 2011, Russia and U.S. National Interests,
https://docs.google.com/a/whitman.edu/viewer?
a=v&q=cache:v1As8GeyxbsJ:www.cftni.org/Russia-and-US-NI_finalweb.pdf+&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESjmHeNTG3fphu7JCWdkYSxdPpJQE213NF0RAJug9sqKqxnQo2yjbhrZ3smFx9YECiKIuU1hnheuV9wxI1
ZrWppy_ur6jJZytf0uBTP5g5edCU5uHlwvzW7n0aQN-_iLYV77_h&sig=AHIEtbSK62thEDk-oXR-yHG5cAQ8DsZdXw&pli=1
Two decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union and Russias emergence as an independent state,
Moscow is no longer Americas strategic rival. Yet, while Russia is not our enemy, neither has it become a
friend. Washington and Moscow have succeeded in overcoming Cold War confrontation, but have not

A better-managed bilateral relationship

is critical for the advancement of Americas vital national interests. Prime Minister
developed sustainable cooperative relations.

Vladimir Putins decision to return to the Kremlin as Russias President next year does not change U.S.
national interests with respect to Russia or, for that matter, Russias national interests with respect to the
United States. Still, at a minimum, Russias rhetoric vis--vis America and the West may become tougher
under Putin. Under the circumstances, maintaining the proper focus in U.S.-Russian relations will likely
require particular care and determination from U.S. policymakers. This report, the result of deliberations by
a distinguished working group of former senior officials and military officers, business leaders, and top
experts, analyzes the U.S.-Russia relationship through the lens of American national interests; argues that
Russia is a pivotal country in promoting these U.S. national interests; and offers prescriptions for U.S.
policy toward Russia in the period ahead. Americas Vital National Interests Although politicians and
pundits routinely invoke the concept of vital national interests to justify virtually any desired course of
action, we hold to a narrow view of U.S. vital interests. Specifically, vital national interests are conditions
that are strictly necessary to safeguard and enhance Americans survival and well-being in a free and
secure nation. From this perspective, we can identify five American vital national interests: Preventing the
use and slowing the spread of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction, securing nuclear
weapons and materials, and preventing proliferation of intermediate and long-range delivery systems for
nuclear weapons; Russia and U.S. National Interests Why Should Americans Care? Maintaining a balance of
power in Europe and Asia that promotes peace and stability with a continuing U.S. leadership role;
Preventing large-scale or sustained terrorist attacks on the American Homeland; Ensuring energy security;
and Assuring the stability of the international economy. Why Russia Matters to the United States In
view of Russias difficult history, sometimes troubling behavior, relatively small economy, and reduced
international role since the collapse of the Soviet Union, it is reasonable to ask whether the United States

Russia must be a top priority for the United States

because its conduct can have a profound impact on Americas vital
national interests: Nuclear Weapons. President Barack Obama and former President George
W. Bush each identified nuclear terrorism as the number one threat to
American national security. The United States and Russia together possess 95% of the
worlds nuclear weapons and most of the worlds weapons-usable
material, and both are major suppliers of civilian nuclear technologies around the world. Also,
Russia is the only nation that could destroy America as we know it in thirty
minutes. Russias meaningful assistance and support is critical to preventing
nuclear war. Non-Proliferation. Russia plays a key role in U.S.-led international
efforts to inhibit the spread of nuclear weapons, weapons-usable materials and
technologies, which are sought not only by nation states, but also by non-state actors. Moscow has
generally supported American initiatives to combat nuclear terrorism and
shared intelligence on al Qaeda with Washington. Without Russias assistance, the United
States will face considerable additional difficulties in seeking to slow down
nuclear proliferation and prevent nuclear terrorism. Geopolitics. Russia is an
important nation in todays international system. Aligning Moscow more closely with
needs Moscow as a partner. We believe

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American goals would bring significant balance of power advantages

to the United Statesincluding in managing Chinas emergence as a global
power. Ignoring Russian perspectives can have substantial costs.
Russias vote in the United Nations Security Council and its influence
elsewhere is consequential to the success of U.S. international diplomacy
on a host of issues. Afghanistan. Al Qaeda operatives have engaged in terrorist attacks against the United

Russia has
provided the United States with access to its airspace and territory as a
critical alternative supply route for U.S. forces in Afghanistan, something
States and have encouraged and supported attacks by domestic terrorist groups in Russia.

that has grown in importance as Americas relations with Pakistan have deteriorated. Moscow has also
shared intelligence on Afghanistan and al Qaeda, helps to train Afghan law enforcement officers, and

Russia is one of the

worlds leading energy producers and is the top holder of natural
gas reserves .Russia thus has a substantial role in maintaining and
expanding energy supplies that keep the global economy stable and
enable economic growth in the United States and around the world. Finance. Russias
supplies hardware to them and to the Afghan National Army. Energy.

membership in the G8 and the G20 gives it a seat at the table for the most important financial and

Russia is the largest country on Earth by

is located at a strategic

economic meetings and deliberations. Strategic Geography.

land area and the largest in Europe by population. It

crossroads between Europe, Asia, and the greater Middle East and is Americas neighbor in the
Arctic. As a result, Russia is close to trouble-spots and a critical transit corridor for energy and other goods.
Reviewing these areas makes clear that Russias choices and actions impact the full range of vital U.S.
national interests significantly and directly.

Few other nations are as important to

the United States.

No Russian War
Weitz 11 (Richard, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a World Politics Review senior editor, Global
Insights: Putin not a Game-Changer for U.S.-Russia Ties, http://www.scribd.com/doc/66579517/Global-Insights-Putin-nota-Game-Changer-for-U-S-Russia-Ties, September 27, 2011)

Fifth, there will inevitably be areas of conflict between Russia and the United States regardless of who is in
the Kremlin. Putin and his entourage can never be happy with having NATO be Europe's most powerful
security institution, since Moscow is not a member and cannot become one. Similarly, the Russians will
always object to NATO's missile defense efforts since they can neither match them nor join them in any
meaningful way. In the case of Iran, Russian officials genuinely perceive less of a threat from Tehran than
do most Americans, and Russia has more to lose from a cessation of economic ties with Iran -- as well as

conflicts can be managed,

since they will likely remain limited and compartmentalized . Russia
from an Iranian-Western reconciliation. On the other hand, these

and the West do not have fundamentally conflicting vital interests

of the kind countries would go to war over . And as the Cold War demonstrated,
nuclear weapons are a great pacifier under such conditions. Another novel development is that Russia is
much more integrated into the international economy and global society than the Soviet Union was, and
Putin's popularity depends heavily on his economic track record. Beyond that, there are objective criteria,
such as the

smaller size of the Russian population and economy as well

as the difficulty of controlling modern means of social communication, that will constrain
whoever is in charge of Russia.

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AT: Terrorism Impact

Risk of terrorism is extremely low several constraints
Keller 13 (3-7, Rebecca Analyst at Stratfor, Post-Doctoral Fellow at
University of Colorado at Boulder, 2013, "Bioterrorism and the Pandemic
Potential," http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/bioterrorism-and-pandemicpotential)djm
It is important to remember that the risk of biological attack is very low and that,
partly because viruses can mutate easily, the potential for natural outbreaks is unpredictable. The key is
having the right tools in case of an outbreak, epidemic or pandemic, and these include a plan for
containment, open channels of communication, scientific research and knowledge sharing. In most cases
involving a potential pathogen, the

news can appear far worse than the actual

threat. Infectious Disease Propagation Since the beginning of February there have been occurrences of
H5N1 (bird flu) in Cambodia, H1N1 (swine flu) in India and a new, or novel, coronavirus (a member of the
same virus family as SARS) in the United Kingdom. In the past week, a man from Nepal traveled through
several countries and eventually ended up in the United States, where it was discovered he had a drugresistant form of tuberculosis, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released a report stating
that antibiotic-resistant infections in hospitals are on the rise. In addition, the United States is experiencing
a worse-than-normal flu season, bringing more attention to the influenza virus and other infectious
diseases. The potential for a disease to spread is measured by its effective reproduction number, or Rvalue, a numerical score that indicates whether a disease will propagate or die out. When the disease first
occurs and no preventive measures are in place, the reproductive potential of the disease is referred to as
R0, the basic reproduction rate. The numerical value is the number of cases a single case can cause on
average during its infectious period. An R0 above 1 means the disease will likely spread (many influenza
viruses have an R0 between 2 and 3, while measles had an R0 value of between 12 and 18), while an Rvalue of less than 1 indicates a disease will likely die out. Factors contributing to the spread of the disease
include the length of time people are contagious, how mobile they are when they are contagious, how the
disease spreads (through the air or bodily fluids) and how susceptible the population is. The initial R0,
which assumes no inherent immunity, can be decreased through control measures that bring the value
either near or below 1, stopping the further spread of the disease. Both the coronavirus family and the
influenza virus are RNA viruses, meaning they replicate using only RNA (which can be thought of as a
single-stranded version of DNA, the more commonly known double helix containing genetic makeup). The
rapid RNA replication used by many viruses is very susceptible to mutations, which are simply errors in the
replication process. Some mutations can alter the behavior of a virus, including the severity of infection
and how the virus is transmitted. The combination of two different strains of a virus, through a process
known as antigenic shift, can result in what is essentially a new virus. Influenza, because it infects multiple
species, is the hallmark example of this kind of evolution. Mutations can make the virus unfamiliar to the
body's immune system. The lack of established immunity within a population enables a disease to spread
more rapidly because the population is less equipped to battle the disease. The trajectory of a mutated
virus (or any other infectious disease) can reach three basic levels of magnitude. An outbreak is a small,
localized occurrence of a pathogen. An epidemic indicates a more widespread infection that is still
regional, while a pandemic indicates that the disease has spread to a global level. Virologists are able to
track mutations by deciphering the genetic sequence of new infections. It is this technology that helped
scientists to determine last year that a smattering of respiratory infections discovered in the Middle East
was actually a novel coronavirus. And it is possible that through a series of mutations a virus like H5N1
could change in such a way to become easily transmitted between humans. Lessons Learned There have
been several influenza pandemics throughout history. The 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic is often cited as a
worst-case scenario, since it infected between 20 and 40 percent of the world's population, killing roughly
2 percent of those infected. In more recent history, smaller incidents, including an epidemic of the SARS
virus in 2003 and what was technically defined as a pandemic of the swine flu (H1N1) in 2009, caused fear
of another pandemic like the 1918 occurrence. The spread of these two diseases was contained before
reaching catastrophic levels, although the economic impact from fear of the diseases reached beyond the
infected areas. Previous pandemics have underscored the importance of preparation, which is essential to
effective disease management. The World Health Organization lays out a set of guidelines for pandemic
prevention and containment. The general principles of preparedness include stockpiling vaccines, which is
done by both the United States and the European Union (although the possibility exists that the vaccines
may not be effective against a new virus). In the event of an outbreak, the guidelines call for developed
nations to share vaccines with developing nations. Containment strategies beyond vaccines include
quarantine of exposed individuals, limited travel and additional screenings at places where the virus could
easily spread, such as airports. Further measures include the closing of businesses, schools and borders.
Individual measures can also be taken to guard against infection. These involve general hygienic measures
-- avoiding mass gatherings, thoroughly washing hands and even wearing masks in specific, high-risk
situations. However, airborne viruses such as influenza are still the most difficult to contain because of the

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method of transmission. Diseases like noroviruses, HIV or cholera are more serious but have to be
transmitted by blood, other bodily fluids or fecal matter. The threat of a rapid pandemic is thereby slowed
because it is easier to identify potential contaminates and either avoid or sterilize them. Research is
another important aspect of overall preparedness. Knowledge gained from studying the viruses and the
ready availability of information can be instrumental in tracking diseases. For example, the genomic
sequence of the novel coronavirus was made available, helping scientists and doctors in different countries
to readily identify the infection in limited cases and implement quarantine procedures as necessary. There
have been only 13 documented cases of the novel coronavirus, so much is unknown regarding the disease.
Recent cases in the United Kingdom indicate possible human-to-human transmission. Further sharing of
information relating to the novel coronavirus can aid in both treatment and containment. Ongoing research
into viruses can also help make future vaccines more efficient against possible mutations, though this type
of research is not without controversy. A case in point is research on the H5N1 virus. H5N1 first appeared in
humans in 1997. Of the more than 600 cases that have appeared since then, more than half have resulted
in death. However, the virus is not easily transmitted because it must cross from bird to human. Human-tohuman transmission of H5N1 is very rare, with only a few suspected incidents in the known history of the
disease. While there is an H5N1 vaccine, it is possible that a new variation of the vaccine would be needed
were the virus to mutate into a form that was transmittable between humans. Vaccines can take months or
even years to develop, but preliminary research on the virus, before an outbreak, can help speed up
development. In December 2011, two separate research labs, one in the United States and one in the
Netherlands, sought to publish their research on the H5N1 virus. Over the course of their research, these
labs had created mutations in the virus that allowed for airborne transmission between ferrets. These
mutations also caused other changes, including a decrease in the virus's lethality and robustness (the
ability to survive outside the carrier). Publication of the research was delayed due to concerns that the
results could increase the risk of accidental release of the virus by encouraging further research, or that
the information could be used by terrorist organizations to conduct a biological attack. Eventually,
publication of papers by both labs was allowed. However, the scientific community imposed a voluntary
moratorium in order to allow the community and regulatory bodies to determine the best practices moving
forward. This voluntary ban was lifted for much of the world on Jan. 24, 2013. On Feb. 21, the National
Institutes of Health in the United States issued proposed guidelines for federally funded labs working with
H5N1. Once standards are set, decisions will likely be made on a case-by-case basis to allow research to
continue. Fear of a pandemic resulting from research on H5N1 continues even after the moratorium was
lifted. Opponents of the research cite the possibility that the virus will be accidentally released or
intentionally used as a bioweapon, since information in scientific publications would be considered readily
available. The Risk-Reward Equation The risk of an accidental release of H5N1 is similar to that of other
infectious pathogens currently being studied. Proper safety standards are key, of course, and experts in
the field have had a year to determine the best way to proceed, balancing safety and research benefits.
Previous work with the virus was conducted at biosafety level three out of four, which requires researchers
wearing respirators and disposable gowns to work in pairs in a negative pressure environment. While many
of these labs are part of universities, access is controlled either through keyed entry or even palm
scanners. There are roughly 40 labs that submitted to the voluntary ban. Those wishing to resume work
after the ban was lifted must comply with guidelines requiring strict national oversight and close
communication and collaboration with national authorities. The risk of release either through accident or

The
use of the pathogen as a biological weapon requires an assessment of whether a
non-state actor would have the capabilities to isolate the virulent strain,
then weaponize and distribute it. Stratfor has long held the position that while
terrorist organizations may have rudimentary capabilities regarding biological
weapons, the likelihood of a successful attack is very low . Given that the
theft cannot be completely eliminated, but given the established parameters the risk is minimal.

laboratory version of H5N1 -- or any influenza virus, for that matter -- is a contagious pathogen, there
would be two possible modes that a non-state actor would have to instigate an attack. The virus could be
refined and then aerosolized and released into a populated area, or an individual could be infected with the

There are severe constraints that

make success using either of these methods unlikely. The technology needed to
refine and aerosolize a pathogen for a biological attack is beyond the capability of most nonstate actors. Even if they were able to develop a weapon, other factors such as wind patterns
and humidity can render an attack ineffective. Using a human carrier is a
less expensive method, but it requires that the biological agent be a contagion .
Additionally, in order to infect the large number of people necessary to start an outbreak, the infected
carrier must be mobile while contagious, something that is doubtful with a
serious disease like small pox. The carrier also cannot be visibly ill because that would limit the
virus and sent to freely circulate within a population.

necessary human contact. As far as continued research is concerned, there is a risk-reward equation to
consider. The threat of a terrorist attack using biological weapons is very low. And while it is impossible to

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predict viral outbreaks, it is important to be able to recognize a new strain of virus that could result in an
epidemic or even a pandemic, enabling countries to respond more effectively. All of this hinges on the level
of preparedness of developed nations and their ability to rapidly exchange information, conduct research and promote
individual awareness of the threat.\

Every credible study says theres no risk of attack,

radiation release, or extinction.
Fertel 04 (Marvin, Senior Vice President and Chief Nuclear Officer, Written
Testimony U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Government Reform
Subcommittee on National Security, Emerging Threats and International
Relations, 9/14,
http://www.nei.org/newsandevents/speechesandtestimony/2004/ushouseferte
lwritten/)
In early 2002, NEI asked EPRIa nonprofit energy research instituteto analyze whether nuclear power plant
structures that house nuclear fuel could withstand an intentional aircraft impact, like those of Sept. 11. Aircraft impact
issues have been addressed in the licensing process for all 103 operating reactors, but those evaluations were
conducted on the basis that the crash would be accidental. EPRIs independent study was conducted by experts in
impact analysis related to commercial and military applications. Their results were peer-reviewed by an

The EPRI study found nuclear

power plant containmentbuildings and used fuel storage pools would protect reactor fuel
even if the structures were struck by a fully loaded Boeing 767-400 flying at approximately the same speed
expert in the dynamic analysis of structures and a renowned structural analyst.

as the airplane that crashed into the Pentagon. The study also found that such an impact would not breach the used
fuel storage containers used at many plants to store used nuclear fuel outside a used fuel pool. Such a crash certainly
would cause a significant amount of collateral plant damage, and no doubt would shut down the plant. However, the
EPRI study concluded that such an event would not cause a release of radiation, because it

would not breach reactor containment, nor would it cause the spent fuel pool to lose the
cooling water that shields the fuel from the environment. NEI also conducted a hypothetical study to determine
the risk to public safety from a release of radiation assumed by a successful terrorist ground assault on a nuclear
power plant. This study found that the risk to the public from a core damage accident caused by an armed terrorist
ground attack on a commercial nuclear power plant is small. It is comparable to, or less than, the risk from other types
of accidents postulated for U.S. commercial nuclear plants. It is unlikely that a ground assault terrorist
attack could successfully cause

damage to a nuclear reactor because of plant owner capabilities

to detect insider activities, physically deter attackers andmitigate accidents with operator
actions and safety systems. The likelihood of severe release of radiation due to a damaged reactor is even
lower, owing to the inherent strength of containment and radioactivity removal capabilities of containment and
systems design. In other words, terrorists would not only need to overwhelm a plants security

forces, take over the plant and contend with an off-site response from local government authorities,
they would need to figure out how to defeat primary and secondary shutdown systems and
causea reactor meltdown. Even then, they would still need to determine how to create a
breach in a reinforcedconcrete containment building in order to achieve a radioactive
release that could possibly reach the public. Even if core damage and radiological release occur, our study also
found that the public health consequenceswould not be catastrophic. The mean number of prompt
fatalities is estimated at two people, and the mean number of latent cancer fatalities is estimated
at less than 100, which is indistinguishable from cancer fatality risks from all causes within the population. For a
terrorist group, determining another target instead of a nuclear plant that could be attacked with a greater likelihood of
success and a much greater loss of life is not a difficult task.

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AT: Iran
Your impact is all hype-Iran is not a risk
Zakaria 9 (10-3, Fareed, Editor Newsweek International, Newsweek, Containing a
Nuclear Iran, http://www.newsweek.com/id/173014, accessed 12/27/09) atw
So what does that leave? In fact,

we are already moving toward a robust, workable

response to the dangers of an Iranian nuclear program one that involves
sustained containment and deterrence. Iran's rise has aroused suspicion in the Arab world.
Many countries in the region are developing closer ties with the United States,
including military ones. In the West, European nations worry about nuclear proliferation and are
irritated with Iran's deception and obstructionism. They have gotten tougher over the years in combating
Iran and its proxies, and they are getting tougher at implementing some of the financial sanctions that
target Iran's elites. Even Russia and China, which have tried to maintain their ties with Iran, are conscious
that they cannot be seen to be utterly unconcerned about proliferation and the defiance of U.N.
resolutions. So they've allowed for some actions against the Iranian regime (and according to some reports
were critical to the outcome of last week's talks in Geneva). All this means that Iran has become
something of an international pariah, unable to operate with great latitude around the world. The country
is in a box and, if well handled, can be kept there until the regime becomes much more transparent and
cooperative on the nuclear issue. To do so, we should maintain the current sanctions but should not add
broad new ones like an embargo on refined-gasoline imports. Any new measures should target the
leadership and factions like the Revolutionary Guards specifically. And we should think more broadly about
other ways to pressure the regime. There should be a structure within which those countries that are
worried about the threat posed by Iran can meet and strategize. We should work to further align the
interests of moderate Arab states with those of Israel, which could be one of the strategic boons of the
circumstance. It's clear that Iran fears this potential alliance, which is why Ahmadinejad has worked so
hard to present himself as the chief spokesman for the great Arab cause of Palestine. By spouting his
nonsense about the Holocaust and professing his support for the Palestinians, he's trying to make it harder

we
must stop exaggerating the Iranian threat. By hyping it, we only provide Iran with "free
power," in Leslie Gelb's apt phrase. This is an insecure Third World country with a GDP
that is one 40th the size of America's, a dysfunctional economy, a divided
political class, and a government facing mass unrest at home. It has alienated
most of its neighboring states and cuts a sorry figure on the world stage , with
an international embarrassment for a president. Its forays in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon,
and Gaza have had mixed results, with the locals often growing weary of the Iranian thugs
who try to control them. The country does not yet have even one nuclear weapon,
and if and when it gets onesomething that is far from certainthe world will not end.
The Middle East has been home to nuclear weapons for decades. If Israel's
for leaders in Saudi Arabia to effectively take Israel's side in opposition to Tehran. At the same time,

estimated -arsenal of 200 warheads, including a "second-strike capacity," has not prompted Egypt to
develop its own nukes, it's not clear that one Iranian bomb would do so. (Recall that Egypt has fought and
lost three wars against Israel, so it should be far more concerned about an Israeli bomb than an Iranian
one.) More crucially, Israel's

massive nuclear force will deter Iran from ever

contemplating using or giving away its own (hypothetical) weapon .
Deterrence worked with madmen like Mao, and with thugs like Stalin, and it will work
with the calculating autocrats of Tehran. The Iranian regime has amply demonstrated over
the past four months that it is interested in hanging on to power at all costs, jailing mullahs and ignoring
its own clerical elite. These are not the actions of religious rulers about to commit mass suicide. We should
not fear to negotiate with these rulers. We talked to the Soviet Union even as we implemented a far more
extensive policy of containment toward Moscow. But talks should not involve a final normalization or
sanctification of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Unless there is a Gorbachev-like reversal of Iran's basic
approach to the worlda Persian glasnost and perestroikathere should be no reciprocal integration into
the Western world.

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AT: Turn Case

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AT: Plastics GoodSaves Energy

Plastics dont save energyindustry studies are
misleading
Ecology Center no date [PTF: Misconceptions
http://ecologycenter.org/plastics/ptf/report9/]
Misconception # 6: Using plastic containers conserves energy.
When the equation includes the energy used to synthesize the plastic resin ,
making plastic containers uses as much energy as making glass containers
from virgin materials, and much more than making glass containers from recycled materials. Using
refillables is most energy conservative.

Energy use studies that compare various packaging materials often do not
account for the large amount of energy required to synthesize plastic resin.
Most of the energy and environmental costs of plastics are hidden because
they are incurred in the plastic factory. Also, life-cycle assessments often assume containers
will be used only once. The practices of refilling and reuse, especially if carried out on the local level, have
the greatest potential for reducing energy consumption no matter what material is used to make the
containers.

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AT: Plastics GoodRecycling

Recycling rhetoric is just greenwashOnly reduction in
consumption solves
Romer and Tamminen 2014
[Jennie R. Romer is a graduate of Golden Gate University School of Law (J.D.
2009) and is an attorney and environmental consultant in New York City;
Leslie Mintz Tamminen is a graduate of the University of Southern California
Gould School of Law (J.D. 1988) and spent fifteen years as counsel for the
environmental nonprofit Heal the Bay in Santa Monica, California, working on
water quality regulation and legislation, including the state of California's
Environmental Education Initiative
PLASTIC POLUTION: Plastic Bag Reduction Ordinances: New York City's
Proposed Charge on All Carryout Bags as a Model for U.S. Cities 27 Tul. Envtl.
L.J. 237]
1.

Plastic Bag Recycling The plastics industry's biggest argument to discourage banning or otherwise
restricting plastic bags is that they can be recycled, either voluntarily or through a legislative mandate.

recycling is not the best

choice. Plastic bag recycling is used by the plastics industry as a distraction
from other issues and as a method of forestalling plastic bag source reduction
regulation. People typically see recycling as something positive and "green,"
but the truth is that plastic bag recycling rates are low (under or around 5%). The
The "reduce-reuse-recycle" mantra, however, makes it clear that

exact number is hard to determine because most plastic bag recycling statistics are commingled with the
recycling rates for other types of plastic films, which are generally recycled at a much higher rate. Of the
total plastic films collected for recycling in the United States in 2008, 57% were exported to unspecified
nations other than Canada, 29% went to make composite lumber, and a measly 4% went on to make film
[*265] and bags. n113 Also, plastic bag collection is difficult and not cost effective,
and there is a limited market for plastic recycled bags, especially if they are
contaminated with food or other substances . n114 In comparison, paper bags are recycled
at much higher rates (65%), are generally accepted in curbside municipal recycling programs, and can be
recycled back into paper bags. n115

Consequently, plastic bag recycling programs have faile d: for example, voluntary
recycling by L.A. County, the city of San Francisco, and Santa Clara County all had lackluster results that
took years, wasted municipal funds, and ultimately ended in bans. n116 Even AB 2449, California's
attempt at mandating a voluntary recycling program, ended in failure, with the state being unable to say

industry attempts to substitute

voluntary recycling programs or educational efforts should not deter cities
from moving directly to source reduction ordinances. n118
whether the law had even worked. n117 Consequently,

Most plastic is not recycled

Ecology Center no date [PTF: Misconceptions

http://ecologycenter.org/plastics/ptf/report9/]
Misconception # 1: Plastics that go into a curbside recycling bin get recycled .
Not necessarily. Many plastics are unrecyclable, and the recyclable ones must
be separated out. The rest go to waste.
Collecting plastic packaging at curbside fosters the belief that, like aluminum and glass, the recovered
material is converted into new packaging. In fact, most recovered plastic packaging is not made into
packaging again but into new secondary products such as textiles, parking lot bumpers, or plastic lumber
all unrecyclable products. This does not reduce the use of virgin materials in plastic packaging.
One of the goals of the Council for Solid Waste Solutions, an industry association formed by major resin
producing companies, is to increase curbside pickup of plastics. The Councils Blueprint for Plastic

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Recycling is aimed squarely at convincing the 6,000 or so municipalities around the country that already
have curbside recycling service to add plastics. How this material is to be handled after being picked up is
not addressed in the blueprint, however .

In many cases, communities have adopted

collection programs only to find that there is no reasonable market for the
material, or that they must incur additional costs to clean and separate it to
market specifications. Recycled in these cases merely means collected,
not reprocessed or converted into useful products.

Recycling does NOT make plastics eco-friendly

Boyle 2011 [7/31 Lisa, environmental lawyer, Plastic And The Great
Recycling Swindle http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lisa-kaas-boyle/plasticsindustry-markets_b_912503.html]
Myth # 1: Recycling Plastic Reduces the Use of Virgin Plastic
Metals, glass and paper are truly recyclable; they can be remade in the same
form with no new materials needed. Not so with plastic. The process of
melting plastics for recycling them weakens their polymer bonds. Virgin
plastic must be added to the degraded plastic to make new products. So
recycling plastics just increases the demand for more virgin petrochemical
product. No wonder the plastics industry pushes recycling! Plastic pollution
activist, journalist and communications director for 5Gyres.org, Stiv Wilson
recently conversed with Mark Daniels of Hilex Poly, the Goliath plastic bag
company that is suing reusable bag maker Andy Keller of Chico Bags. Wilson
confronted Daniels with the following facts and got a surprising answer:
You can't make a bag out of a bag. At present, available technology only
allows for 30% post consumer high density polyethylene (HDPE) to be added
to the next generation of bag because the recycling process weakens
polymer chains needed for a new bag's structural integrity. This translates to
70% virgin material being added to the next generation of bags. Which
means every time you recycle one bag, you net 3.3 new bags. And every
time you recycle 3.3 bags, you will then net 10. And so on and so on to
infinity. Finally, I asked him, "Mark, is it a fair statement that the product of
recycling plastic is more plastic in the world, not less?" His answer, "Yes."
Myth # 2: Disposable Plastics are Sustainable because they are Recycled
Lotso was right in Toy Story 3 when he said plastics are meant to be thrown
away. Disposable plastic products are designed for a one-way trip to
wasteland, not reuse or closed-loop recycling. Many disposable plastic
products like disposable razors can't be recycled because they are made of
combined materials, like plastic and metal. These are "hybrid monsters" in
the words of authors William McDonough and Michael Braungart who
advocate design that addresses the entire life cycle of a product in their book
Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things.
Plastics that are used in packaging fast foods, like expanded polystyrene,
known for its Dow Chemical name Styrofoam, are made to be thrown away
immediately after the food is consumed. The rare fast food container that
makes it to a recycling center will most likely be segregated out for landfill
because plastic attracts oil and oily food remains contaminate recycling. Even
if the packaging has been washed by the consumer, the lightweight nature of
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expanded polystyrene makes for little product or profit from significant

recycling efforts.
Others disposable plastics such as plastic trash bags, diapers and feminine
hygiene products are obviously intended to go straight to the dump. The
same holds true for plastic bags that contain greasy take-out, plastic plates,
straws, the plastic filters in cigarettes, and plastic utensils.
Plastic bags are notoriously difficult to recycle because of their thinness and
are as infamous for jamming recycling equipment as they are for ruining boat
motors when encountered in water. The color in plastics can't be removed, so
any dark pigments in a batch of recycling will make a for a unknown final
color: probably muddy, grey. For this reason colorless plastics stand a better
chance for making it through a recycling center while colored plastics are
separated out as trash.
Susan Freinkel explains in her excellent new book,
Plastic: A Toxic Love Story, that: "Plastics are a challenge to MaterialsRecovery Facilities. There are lots of different polymers and each has
distinctive chemical and physical properties, different melting temperatures,
and separate secondary markets...Most plastics can't be recycled together,
but many look so similar that they are difficult to sort...just a few PVC bottles
in a half-ton bale of PET bottles or vice versa, can contaminate the whole
batch, rendering it unusable. Even some products that are made of the same
base polymer should not be recycled together; a PET bottle that's been blown
into shape has a different melting temperature than a PET cookie tray that's
been molded through extrusion. Try to combine them and you'll end up with
unusable goop."
Despite enormous efforts on the part of government and industry to promote
recycling, plastics are not designed to promote recycling, and Americans
recycle less plastic than any other material, scarcely 7 percent. And many
plastics that make it to a recycling center are never recycled because the
recycling cost does not justify the effort when virgin materials are cheap.
Much plastic that makes it to recycling centers is sent as waste to China
where it is burned releasing toxins into the air that settle over the oceans just
like mercury from coal burning.

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