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AnelectionbattlefortheidentityofTaiwan
1January2016 Asia

Taiwan,oneoftheworld'sfeistiestdemocracies,willelectanewpresidentand
parliamenton16January.TheBBC'sCindySuiexplainswhythismightjustbeoneofits
mostsignificantpollsyet.

Whatisatstakeinthiselection?
ThefundamentalissueattheheartofanydiscussionofTaiwanisitsrelationshipwithChina,
whichviewsitasabreakawayprovincethatwillonedaybereunitedwiththemainland.

AFP

IntheeightyearsthatPresidentMaYingjeou,fromtheKuomintang(KMT)party,hasbeenin
power,hehasfocusedonimprovingrelationswithChina.Thiserahasseentherivalsonthe
mostcordialtermssincetheendoftheChinesecivilwarin1949.

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ButwhenhecompleteshissecondterminMay,hecannotrunagain.

GettyImages

AndmanyareuncomfortablewithhavingtheKMT,whichsupportsthenotionthatTaiwanand
themainlandarepartofoneChina,continuetonegotiatedealsanddeveloprelationswith
Beijing.
ThesepeopleareexpectedtovotefortheoppositionDemocraticProgressiveParty(DPP),
whichdoesnotsharethatview.

GettyImages

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Meanwhilethefightforamajorityofthe113seatsintheparliament,knownastheLegislative
Yuan,isalsoconsideredcritical.PollsshowtheKMTriskslosingitsmajorityforthefirsttimein
Taiwan'shistory.

WhatdopeoplefearaboutcloserChineserelations?

AFP

Morethan20agreementsTaiwansignedwithChinainthepasteightyearshavebroughtfirst
everdirectflightsandshippinglinks,increasedculturalandacademicexchangesandco
operationonmanyfronts,aswellasaround4millionChinesetouristsherelastyear.
Butmanypeople,whilegladtoseetensionsreduced,fearPresidentMa'sadministrationand
partymaybemakingTaiwantooeconomicallydependentonthemainland.
Theyfearthiscouldleadtopoliticalrisks,namelyalossofTaiwan'sindependenceand
democracyandaninabilitytofendoffpressurefromChinatoreunifyoneday.

Whatarethemostimportantdomesticissues?

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Reuters

Theseelectionscomeastheexportdependenteconomy,whichhashistoricallymanufactured
productsforothercountriescheaply,strugglestoreinventitself.
Itfacesgrowingpressures,includingslowingglobaldemand,andincreasingcompetitionfrom
similareconomieslikeSouthKorea,aswellasemergingeconomieslikeChina.
Economicgrowthwasbarely1%in2014,whileunemploymentisnearly4%consideredhigh
hereandpercapitanominalgrossdomesticproduct(annualincome)isonlyaround
US$22,000(14,930),muchlowerthanthatofitsdevelopedAsianneighbours.
Wagesarealsostagnating,evenascompaniesmakeprofits,leavingmanytobelieveit'smainly
businesses,notordinarypeople,whichhavebenefitedfromtheclosertradetieswithChina.

Howcouldtheoutcomeaffectothercountries?
Thisisnotjustaboutthepoliticianstryingtomaketheargumentforadifferentkindof
relationshipwithChina.Thereareregionalandglobalimplications.

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AFP/GettyImages

Rolemodel:Althoughdirectpresidentialelectionsonlybeganin1996,Taiwanhasbecomea
truedemocracy,seenasarolemodelforotherAsiancountries.Itisalsotheonlyethnic
Chinesesocietythathasuniversalsuffrageanddemocraticelections.Taiwan'selectionsare
closelywatchednotonlybyChina'sgovernment,butincreasinglycuriousChinesecitizensand
couldinfluencethedevelopmentofdemocracythere,giventhesimilaritiesinlanguageand
culture.
TaiwanChinarelations:TaiwanisatacrossroadsinitsrelationshipwithChina:whoiselected
willdefinethis.Trade,tourismandotherexchangescouldsufferiftheChinawaryopposition
partyDPPregainspowerandantagonisesBeijing,whereasaKMTvictorycouldbringabout
furtheropeningofChina'sandTaiwan'smarketstoeachother,moreeconomicintegration,
perhapsprogresstowardsmutualtrustandevenlastingpeacealbeitwiththeriskstoTaiwan's
sovereignty.

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AP

Regionalpeace:IftheDPPiselectedandtriestopromoteTaiwan'sindependenceorseparate
identityfromChina,thiscouldcausetensionstoresurface.Thatisworryingnotonlyfor
Taiwanesepeopleandtheirneighbours,butalsotheUnitedStates,whichisboundbylawto
provideTaiwanthemeanstodefenditselfandcouldbedrawnintoamilitaryconflict.Asunlikely
aswarmayseem,thetwosideshaveyettosignapeacetreaty.China,increasingmilitary
spendingeveryyear,alsohashundredsofmissilestargetedatTaiwan.Aheadoftheelection,
theChinesegovernmenthasrepeateditsstrongstanceagainstTaiwanindependence.Itfeels
TaiwanwasfirstwrongfullysnatchedfromChinain1895tobecomeaJapanesecolonyand
laterseparatedbecauseofthecivilwar,andseestheunificationofthecountryasacentralgoal.

Whoistippedtowin?

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EPA

OpinionpollsbylocalmediashowtheoppositionDPP'scandidateTsaiIngwenenjoyingabout
45%ofsupportfrompotentialvoters,faraheadoftherulingKMTpartycandidateEricChu's
around20%,andthesmallerPeopleFirstParty(PFP)candidateJamesSoong's10%.
WhoareTaiwan'spresidentialelectioncandidates?
Butsome25%oftheeligiblevotersremainundecided.
Thereare700,000moreeligiblevotersinthiselectionthanthelastone,andmostofthemare
young,firsttimevoters.Someofthemprefernewsmallerpartiespromotingenvironmentaland
socialcauses.

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