Chapter 2

Construction Project Planning & Scheduling

Techniques

Planning and Scheduling techniques

Definition of Planning :
Project planning is the process of identifying all the activities
necessary to successfully complete the project.
Failure to plan leads to excessive labor cost, equipment waiting time,
delays, waiting for materials, lack of coordination, and management
inability to react to unexpected events (weather, equipment
breakdowns, shortages)
Planning -Breakdown of project into work items (activities), define and
describe activities to be performed

Planning answers three main questions

What is to be done?
How to do it?
Who does it?

Project Planning: defined as drawing up a method or scheme of acting,

doing, proceeding, making, etc.
Activities involved in construction planning

Defining the scope of work:

Identifying activities involved:
Establish project duration:
Define procedures for controlling and assigning resources:
Developing appropriate interfaces:
Monitoring and dissemination of information:
Revisions in plans

Defining the scope of work:

Since all activities involve consumption of different resources to
different extents, it is important that the scope of work involved is
properly and, to the extent possible, completely defined.
Any addition, deletion or modification in the scope could have serious
repercussions in terms of time of completion and cost.
For example if felling trees and leveling the ground is added (at a later
date) to the scope of a contractor awarded a job for construction of
roads, would obviously cause difficulties!!

Identifying activities involved:

This part of planning is very closely linked to defining the scope,
It involves identifying activities in a particular job.
Since different activities involved consume different physical
resources to varying extents, it is crucial that these activities are
exhaustively listed, along with the resources required.
For example, though different agencies may be concerned with
environmental impact assessment it is important for them to identify
the tools or parameters each will be using so to plan effectively.

Establish project duration:

This can be done only with a clear knowledge of the required resources,
productivities, and inter- relationships.
This information is used to prepare a network and other forms of
representations outlining the schedules.

It may be remembered that the duration required for any activity is related to
the resources committed and it may be possible to reduce the project
duration by increasing the resource commitment, even at additional cost.
Thus a balance between time and project cost is required to arrive at an
optimum level of resource commitment.

Define procedures for controlling and assigning

resources:
It is important that the planning document prepared is followed by

others involved in the execution of the project, or its individual phases.

Thus, the procedures to be followed for procurement and control of

resources to different activities manpower, machines, material and

money are also laid down.

Developing appropriate interfaces:

The planner needs to devise evolve an appropriate system for

reporting.
Tools such as computers,

formats for reporting, etc are widely used and it may be noted that
several software are readily available to aid the planner.

Type of Project Plans

Time Plan
Resources Plan

Manpower Plan
Material Plan
Construction Equipment Plan
Finance Plan

Time planning
Time is the essence of all construction projects, and contracts often have
clauses outlining awards (bonus payments) or penalties (as liquidated

damages) for completing a work ahead or later than a scheduled date.

some of the common reasons for delays could be a sluggish approach
during planning,

delay in award of contract

changes during execution

alterations in scope of work

delay in payments

slow decision making

delay in supply of drawings and materials and

labor trouble.

Contd
Several reasonably well-established techniques for time planning are
available:
commonly used (or scheduling) activities are:
Critical path method (CPM),
Programme evaluation and review technique (PERT),
Precedence network analysis (PNA),
Line of balance technique (LOB),
Linear Programme chart (LPC) and
Time scale network (TSN).
The choice of the method to be used in a particular case depends on
the intended objective, nature of the project, target audience, etc.

Resources planning
a resource plan, combines manpower, materials, equipment, budget or
cash flow, is also drawn up for a project to show the overall
requirement of the different resources in the project.
Such a plan can be prepared only on the basis of the schedule of a
project.
In a manner of speaking, the relationship between planning for time and
other resource is similar to the relationship between design and
analysis of a structure.

Manpower planning
This plan focuses on :
estimating the size of work force,
division in functional teams and scheduling the deployment of
manpower.
establishing labor productivity standards,
providing suitable environment and financial incentives for
optimum productivity, and
grouping the manpower in suitable functional team in order to get
the optimum utilization.

Material plan
The material plan involves
identification of required materials, estimation of required
quantities,
defining specification and forecasting material requirement besides
identification of appropriate source(s),
inventory control,
procurement plans, and
monitoring the usage of materials.

Construction equipment planning

Modern construction is highly mechanized
The role of heavy equipment in ensuring timely completion of projects
cannot be overemphasized.
Induction of modern equipments could improve productivity and quality
besides reducing cost.
At the same time it should be borne in mind heavy equipments are very
costly and should be optimally utilized in order to be productive.
It is also important that the characteristics of equipment are kept in mind
when drawing up an equipment plan.

Finance plan
large construction projects require huge investments, and a long
time to complete,
it is obvious that all the money is not required at any one point in
time.
Contractors fund their projects from their
Working capital and
a combination of avenues such as mobilization advance for the
project, advance payments, and credits from suppliers against
work done.

Time-Cost Relationship
Project costs start slowly, but increase sharply once the
project enters the construction phase
Ability to influence decisions falls off sharply as time on the
project passes
Influence/

Project cost

TIME

Production Curve (s-curve)

Projects build up slowly as workers and equipment are brought to the
project and mobilized.

Early on only a few activities may occur, but once mobilization is complete
work proceeds at a rapid pace until the end.

TIME

Definition of Scheduling
Schedules establish the start, duration and completion date of
Schedules a project or task
Scheduling is the process of listing a number of duties or events in the
sequence that they will occur
It is a timetable which formulates the activities that must be
accomplished to reach a certain goal or objective
The timing and sequence of tasks within a project. A schedule consists
of many tasks, tasks dependencies and time oriented project
information.

Construction Planning
Essential aspects of construction planning include the generation
of required activities, analysis of the implications of these
activities, and choice among the various alternative means of
performing activities.
In developing a construction plan, it is common to adopt a primary
emphasis on either cost control or on schedule control.

Alternative Emphases in Construction Planning

Why Construction scheduling ?

One of the first question an owner or project manager wants
answered is when can the project be completed?
Schedules identify all the tasks required to be completed on a
project, determine how long each will take and place them in
logical order.
Schedules let people and organizations know in advance when to
expect a certain action to take place.
Schedules start date determines when goods and services need
to be brought to the job site, when a work force needs to be
mobilized and when equipment rental begins

When to Schedule?
Schedules are useful during all the phases of project.
Preconstruction Stage:
Scheduling in the preconstruction stage is important to provide
the owner with necessary information to plan and coordinate
properly the entire design and construction process.
Viewed as an opportunity to design and build the project on
paper prior to the actual construction
This is the time that project team may decide to order key long
lead purchase item such as structural steel, elevators or
compressors.

Contd
Construction Stage:
Schedules are essential to coordination of the day-to-day
activities of project
As project progresses, delays inevitably occur due to bad
weather, equipment failure, strikes etc.
Schedules record the actual activities at the site on day-to-day
basis and reschedule.

Planning Versus Scheduling

A plan shows the activities and their logic relationships. The
activities in a plan do not have specific start and end dates.
A schedule establishes the specific start and end dates for the
activities. It also establishes the total project duration. A schedule
determines what resources are needed when for how long for
which activity

Contd

Defining Work Tasks /work breakdown

The Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) is a tool that defines a
project and groups the projects discrete work elements in a way
that helps organize and define the total work scope of the
project.
WBS is structured in accordance with the way the work will be
performed and reflects the way in which project costs and data
will be summarized and eventually reported.

Contd
in planning a project, the project manager must structure the work into
small elements that are:
Manageable: in that specific authority and responsibility can be assigned.
Independent: or with minimum interfacing with and dependence on other
ongoing elements.
Integra table: so that the total package can be seen.
Measurable: in terms of progress.
WBS also provides the necessary framework for detailed cost estimating
and control along with providing guidance for schedule development and
control.
Each descending level of the WBS represents an increased level of
detailed definition of the project work.

Methodology of WBS
A project is split to different levels from upper end to lower end.
It should be borne in mind that once the breakdown is exhaustive,
operations such as resource allocation, project monitoring, etc. become
simplified.
An illustrative example of such an exercise is shown schematically in
Figure 1, shows the whole to part relation between the project, subprojects, tasks, work packages and activities for the construction of a
hospital complex.

Contd

Scheduling Techniques
1. Bar (Gantt) charts
2. The networking scheduling technique
The critical path method (CPM)
The performance (program or project) evaluation technique (PERT)
3. Precedence network analysis (PNA)
4. Computer Software's:
>> Primavera
>> MS Project

1. Gantt (bar) charts:

It is one of the most popular and oldest project planning techniques for
scheduling, reporting, and control overall project.
This technique present the project schedule plotted to a horizontal line
scale graphically represents the progress of a project versus the time
frame within which it must be completed.
The bar lines represent the time period allocated to each operation and
the relationship between the commencement and completion of each
can be readily observed.
They are easy to understand and very useful in reviewing progress.

To prepare a Gantt chart:

1. List each of the discrete project activities or tasks that needs to be
completed.
2. Establish the execution sequence of these activities.
3. Estimate the duration of these activities.
4. List all activities in chronological order and determine those that can be
carried out simultaneously and those that must be carried out
sequentially.
5. Consider the resource requirements and allocations for each activity.

example of the construction of a boundary wall

Contd

Contd
Advantages of Bar chart:
Useful to report information to people who are concerned about a
project but may not be involved in day-today management.
A simple format and readily understood at all levels of management.
It can provide a quick, visual overview of a project in convenient way to
monitor job progresses, schedule equipment and crews and record
project advancement.
Disadvantages:
Interdependencies among activities are difficult to show. The bar chart
itself doesnt provide a basis for ascertaining which activities are critical
and which are floaters.
It is not an adequate planning and scheduling tool because it doesnt
portray a detailed, integrated and complete plan of operations.

2. The Networking Schedule Technique

Terminology Used in Planning Techniques:
Activity:
Performance of a specific task, operation, job or function which
consumes time and resources and has a definite beginning and end is
called activity.
Event or Milestone:
An instantaneous point in time marking the beginning or the end of one
or more activities is called event.
Unlike an activity, does not consume time or resources .Hence,
expresses a state of being.
Activities take place between events.

Contd
Network:
It is the diagrammatic representation of a work plan showing the
activities step by step, leading to the established goal. It depicts the
inter-dependence between the various activities, (i.e. which activities
can be done together and which activities must precede or succeed
others).
Network Representation:
While drawing a network, certain rules are followed while numbering the
events or nodes. For example
same node number is not to be used twice in the network;
tail node number is smaller than the head node;
numbering starts from left hand top and ends in right hand bottom.

Types of networks
AOA (Activity-on-Arrow) and
AON (Activity-on-Node).
AOA (Activity-on-Arrow): in this system an activity is graphically
represented by an arrow from left to right. The description of the
activity is written above the arrow and the time taken to complete the
activity is written below it.
An event is graphically represented by a number enclosed in a circle.
The beginning of an activity is marked by a tail event or preceding
event and the end by a head event or succeeding event.

Contd
AON (Activity-on-Node): Here activities are represented on the node,
and arrows are used to show the dependency relationship between the
activity nodes. The time required to complete the activity is also indicated
in the node.

Fig, Network on A-O-N

Rules for developing Networks:

Rule 1
No activity can commence until all preceding activities have been
completed.

From the above figure, Concrete foundation can commence only after
procure cement, procure aggregate and Instal concrete mixer are all
completed.

Contd
Rule 2
A dummy activity is introduced in the network either to show
dependency or to avoid duplicate numbering on activities.
A dummy activity: is an artificial activity shown by a dotted line and
used to define interdependence between activities and included in a
network for logical and mathematical reasons..
This activity does not involve consumption of resources, and therefore
does not need any time to be completed.

Contd

Fro the above figure, erect beam can be taken up only when
both concrete pier and Precast beams are completed.
Dummy activity 2-3 shows this dependency and also avoids
duplicated numbering of concrete pier and Precast beam.

Contd
Rule 3
The logical placement of an activity in the network is governed by the
following three considerations.
Which activity must be completed before this activity can commence
?(precedence)
Which activity can be carried out along with this activity? (Concurrence).
Which activity can not commence until this activity is completed?
(Subsequence).
Consider the ff, activities pertaining to the construction of mass
concrete foundation:
Excavation
: 3 days
Prepare shuttering
: 2 days
Fix shuttering
: 1 day
Concrete foundation
: 1 day

Contd
The placement of various activities in the network is
shown below.

Contd
Rule 4
No activity should lead to previous event i.e. there must not be any
looping
For example, if activity A precedes activity B, activity B precedes activity C,
and activity C precedes activity A, then the project can never be started or
completed! Something is wrong with the logic or thinking.

Contd

Rule 5
In any network there must be one start and one finish (with any number of
activities in between) i.e. no activity should be left dangling.

(a) Incorrect network as activity 2-3 & 2-4 are left dangling

Contd

(b) Correct form of the network with one start and one finish

Preparation of Network Diagram

Creating a network diagram involves:
preparing a work break down structure for the project.
Determining the interdependency among the activities,
Estimating the duration for each activity and
Finally drawing the network.

Preparing the work breakdown structure:

This involves defining the constitute activities of the project.
For example works requiring similar labor, similar plant and equipment,
etc. may be classified in same group.
Each activity under different divisions of work breakdown structure should
be in manageable unit of work .
Resources should be considered while defining the activities, and their
requirement estimated.

Inter dependence of activity:

For each activity the planner must know which activity precedes or
succeeds a particular activity and which activity can be taken up
concurrently with this particular activity.
The answer to these questions will furnish the dependency relationships
between the activity in question and its immediately following activities.
Such considerations define certain logic for the network and the plan of
construction of the project.

Estimating duration for an activity:

In most scheduling procedures, each work activity has associated time
duration.
These durations are used extensively in preparing a schedule.
The time required to complete an activity should depend not only on the
quantum of work to be executed (Q) but also the resources allocated
(R) and the (unit) productivity of the resources (P).

Contd
Simply put, the time required (T) to complete an activity
can be calculated using the following relationship:
T = Q / (RxP)
Where T= the time required to complete an activity.
Q= the quantum of work to be executed.
R= resources allocated
P= the unit productivity of the resources.

Contd
The duration for an activity can be estimated using several approaches:
-Time study approach
-Previous project data
-Guesstimating approach
-Range estimates
-Estimates from vendors and subcontractors

Contd
Time study approach:
In this approach the time T=Q/(p x n),
where Q= Total quantity of work,
p= productivity factor,
n= normal size of crew.
It can be noticed that Q, p, and n are all dependent on the
availability of the information or data and at the time of estimate,
the information all the three variables would be difficult to get.

CPM and PERT

Critical Path Method (CPM)
developed by Du Pont in 1957 for construction of new
chemical plant and maintenance shut-down
handles deterministic task times
good for jobs having repetitive nature. E.g. Construction
Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
developed by U.S. Navy (1958) for missile program
handles multiple task time estimates (probabilistic nature)
especially good for non-repetitive jobs (R & D work)

CPM and PERT

Both PERT and CPM are important quantitative tools to
determine the critical path

establish the most likely time estimated for individual tasks by

applying statistical models
calculate boundary time (window) for a particular task
Normally, both techniques(PERT and CPM) are driven by
information already developed in the project planning step like:
Estimates of efforts
Decomposition of tasks

CPM and PERT

CPM/PERT can answer the following important questions:
How long will the entire project take to be completed? What
are the risks involved?
Which are the critical activities or tasks in the project which
could delay the entire project if they were not completed on
time?
Is the project on schedule, behind schedule or ahead of
schedule?
If the project has to be finished earlier than planned, what is
the best way to do this at the least cost?

CPM and PERT simple steps

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Identify activities
Determine sequence
Create network/develop network diagram
Determine activity times
Find the critical path based on:
Earliest & latest start times
Earliest & latest finish times
Slack

Important Terminologies in CPM/PERT

In PERT and CPM, the greatest amount of management
attention is focused on activities on the critical path.
A path is a route through a network that begins at the first
activity and ends at the last activity.
The length of a path is the sum of times for the activities on
the path.
The critical path is the longest path in a network (path with
highest length)

Important Terminologies in CPM/PERT

Activity
A task or a certain amount of work to be done in the project
Requires time to complete
Usually represented by an arrow in a network diagram
Event
Signals the beginning or ending of an activity
Designates a point in time
Usually represented by a circle (node) in a network diagram

Network
Shows the sequential relationships among activities using
nodes and arrows

Application Area of CPM

CPM is commonly used with all forms of projects, including
construction,
software development,
research projects,
product development, and
engineering, etc.
Any project with interdependent activities can apply this method of
mathematical analysis.

Critical Path Method (CPM)

CPM is a network diagramming technique used to predict total
project duration based on critical path.

A critical path for a project is the series of activities that

determines the earliest time by which the project can be
completed.
The critical path is the longest path through the network
diagram and has the least amount of slack or float.
Slack or float is the amount of time an activity can be delayed
without delaying a succeeding activity or the project finish
date.

Characteristics of CPM
CPM does not incorporate uncertainties in job times,
It is mostly suitable for the jobs of repetitive in nature where the
activity time estimates can be predicted with considerable
certainty due to the existence of past experience.
Example: construction type projects
CPM assumes that activity time is proportional to the resources
allocated to it (within a certain limit).

The objective of using CPM is to determine Critical path that

results in minimum project duration while floats available with each
activity.

Activity Resource Estimating

Before estimating activity durations, you must have a good idea of
the quantity and type of resources that will be assigned to each
activity.
Consider important issues in estimating resources:
How difficult will it be to complete specific activities on this
project?
What is the organizations history in doing similar activities?
Are the required resources available?

People doing the work should help create estimates, and an expert
should review them.

CPM Inputs and Outputs

Inputs:
Activities from work breakdown structure
Precedence relationships among activities
(what activities must be completed before other activities can
be started)
One time estimate for each activity (how long does it take to
do the activity?)
Outputs:
Project completion time
Start and end times for each activity
Critical path: activities that must be finished on time so that
the project will be completed on time

Critical Path Analysis Simple Example 1

Consider the following project network. Find the critical path.

Critical Path Analysis Simple Example 1

List of all possible sequences (chain/path) of activities (Enumeration
method):

Critical Path Analysis Simple Example 1

Critical Path Analysis Simple Example 2

Critical Path Analysis Structured Approach

Critical path calculations involve TWO passes
Forward Pass (Early start schedule): the process of
calculating the earliest event time in a forward direction. (left
to right)
Backward Pass (Late start schedule): the process of
calculating the latest event time in a backward direction.
(right to left)
Note:
If two/more activities enter to one activity, TE will be the max, of
the two in forward pass.
If two/more activities enter to one activity, TL will be the min, of the
two in backward pass.

Critical path Analysis- Forward Pass

Start at the beginning of CPM network to determine the earliest
activity times.

Earliest Start Time (ES)

The earliest possible time at which the activity can
start
ES = maximum EF of immediate predecessors
Earliest finish time (EF)
The earliest possible time at which the activity can
finish.
EF= ES + t
Where, t = duration of the activity

Critical Path Analysis- Backward Pass

Determines latest activity times by starting at the end of CPM
network and moving back.

Latest Start Time (LS)

The latest time at which the activity can start without
causing the project to finish after its earliest finish time.
LS= LF t
Latest finish time (LF)
The latest time at which the activity can finish without
causing the project to finish after its earliest finish time.
LF = minimum LS of immediate successors

Critical Path - Float/Slack

Float is the maximum amount of time that an activity can be
delayed before it becomes a critical activity, i.e., delays completion
of the project.
Float/Slack = LS ES = LF EF
Activities on the critical path have zero slack.
Non-critical activities have positive slack.
Slack could be:
Free slack or free float is the amount of time an activity can be
delayed from its early start without delaying the early start of
any immediately following activities.
Total slack or total float is the amount of time an activity can be
delayed from its early start without delaying the planned project
finish date.

Steps in CPM Analysis

Draw the CPM network
Analyze the paths through the network
Determine the float for each activity
Compute the activitys float
Float = LS - ES = LF - EF
Find the critical path, (that is, the sequence of activities and
events where there is no slack or Zero slack)
Find the project duration the minimum project completion time.
Find activities starting and finishing time.

CPM Network example 1

f, 15
h, 9

g, 17

a, 6

i, 6

b, 8
d, 13
c, 5
e, 9

j, 12

CPM Network example 1

ES and EF Times

f, 15
h, 9

g, 17

a, 6
0 6

i, 6

b, 8
0 8
0 5

d, 13

c, 5
e, 9

j, 12

CPM Network example 1

ES and EF Times
a, 6
0 6

f, 15
6 21
g, 17
6 23

h, 9
i, 6

b, 8
0 8
0 5

c, 5

d, 13

8 21
e, 9
5 14

j, 12

CPM Network example 1

ES and EF Times
a, 6
0 6

f, 15
6 21
g, 17
6 23

0 5

c, 5

i, 6

21 30

23 29

b, 8
0 8

h, 9

d, 13

8 21
e, 9
5 14

j, 12
21 33

Projects EF = 33

CPM Network example 1

LS and LF Times
a, 6 0 6
21
b, 8
0 8
21
c, 5
0 5
21

f, 15

6 21
21

g, 17
6 23
21

d, 13
8 21
21
e, 9 5 14
21

h, 9
21
21 30
24 33

i, 6
21
21 29
27 33
j, 12
21
21 33
21 33

CPM Network example 1

LS and LF Times
a, 6 0 6
21
b, 8
0 8
21
c, 5
0 5
21

6 21
21
f, 15 9 24
g, 17
6 23
21
10 27

d, 13
8 21
21
8 21
e, 9 5 14
21
12 21

h, 9
21
21 30
24 33

i, 6
21
21 29
27 33
j, 12
21
21 33
21 33

CPM Network example 1

LS and LF Times
a, 6 0 6
21
3 9
b, 8
0 8
21
0 8
c, 5
0 5
21
7 12

6 21
21
f, 15 9 24
g, 17
6 23
21
10 27

d, 13
8 21
21
8 21
e, 9 5 14
21
12 21

h, 9
21
21 30
24 33

i, 6
21
21 29
27 33
j, 12
21
21 33
21 33

CPM Network example 1

LS and LF Times
a, 6 0 6
3 21
3 9
b, 8
0 8
0 21
0 8

6 21
3 21
9 24
f, 15
g, 17
6 23
4 21
10 27

h, 9
3 21
21 30
24 33

i, 6
23
29
21
4
27 33
j, 12
0 21
21 33
21 33

d, 13
8 21
0 21
8 21
c, 5
0 5
e, 9 5 14
21
7 7 12
21
7 12
21

CPM Network example 1

f, 15
h, 9

g, 17

a, 6

i, 6

b, 8
d, 13
c, 5
e, 9

j, 12

CPM Network example 2

te =7
te =12

5
te =13

te =11

te =4
4

1
te =11

te =8

te =7
3

te =10

te =10

CPM Network example 2

Legend: ES/EF
te =7

12/19
te =12

5
te =4

0/12

12/16

18/31
te =13
te =8

te =11
7
18/26

11/18

0/11

31/42

42/52

te =7

te =11

11/21
3

6
te =10

te =10

Example Flow Diagram with Critical Path

ES|LS|EF|LF

t1-2=12
0|2|12|14

2
t2-4=4
12|14|16|18

1
t1-3=11
0|0|11|11

t2-5=7
12|24|19|31

t4-5=13
18|18|31|31

t4-6=8
18|34 |26|42

t3-4=7
11|11|18|18
3

t5-6=11
31|31|42|42

t3-6=10
11|32|21|42

t6-7=10
42|42|52|52

CPM - Exercise 1
Consider the following network diagram. Applying
CPM, find:
the project period
activities ES and EF, LS and LF
float for each activity
the critical path

Pause
PERT Concept and Analysis

PERT
PERT is a model for project management designed to analyze the
tasks involved in completing a given project.
It is used more in projects where time, rather than cost, is the major
factor.
Unlike CPM, PERT is suitable for Non-repetitive projects (eg. R & D
work), where job-times are not estimable with certainty a priori.
Thus, PERT takes uncertainty of activity durations in a project into
account
90

PERT
Project evaluation and review technique (PERT) inputs
Activities from work breakdown structure
Precedence relationships among activities
3 time estimates for each activity

Project evaluation and review technique (PERT) outputs

Estimated start and end dates for each activity
Normal distribution for project completion date
Probability of finishing the project by the mean date = 50%
Standard deviation
Can compute probability of finishing project by the due date.
91

PERT - Three Point Estimates

PERT is based on the assumption that an activitys duration
follows a probability distribution instead of being a single value.

Three time estimates are required to compute the parameters of an

activitys duration distribution:
Pessimistic time (b) - the time the activity would take if things
did not go well. (E.g. likely occur 1 in 20)
Most likely time (m) - the consensus best estimate of the
activitys duration. (E.g. Modal value)

Optimistic time (a ) - the time the activity would take if things

did go well. (E.g. Would be exceeded only one time in 20)
92

PERT - Three Point Estimates

Assumptions in PERT :
1. The activity durations are independent. i.e. the duration of one
doesnt affect another.
2. The activity durations follow Beta distribution.
Therefore, in PERT analysis
Activity Mean Time Estimate, te = (a + 4m + b)/6
Activity Standard Deviation, e = (b a) /6

Activity Variance Estimate, 2e = (b a)2 /36

93

PERT - Time Estimates

Application of te and 2e :
Use of te and 2e allows one to make probabilistic estimates
of completion dates.
By summing the tes of the activities on the critical path
you can estimate the duration of the entire project.
By summing the Variance (2e) of the activities on the
critical path, you can estimate the total variance of the
critical path and make one-sided interval estimates of
project completion times.
94

PERT - Time Estimates

Example 1. If the optimistic time, the most likely time and pessimistic
time of completing a project are 8 days, 10days and 24 days,
respectively, find the expected time that the project can be completed.
Activity mean time = 8 workdays + 4 X 10 workdays + 24 workdays
6
= 12 days
The answer is 12 days.

95

8:37 AM
PERT - Example Network Flow Diagram
Example 2. Find the critical path and the expected time of
completion of a project given the following network diagram and
three probabilistic duration of activities.
D

5
G

1
E

B
3

H
6

96

PERT - Example Activity Characteristics

Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J

1-2
1-3
2-4
2-5
3-4
3-6
4-5
4-6
5-6
6-7

10
9
1
1
1
5
8
1
6
6

12
11
3
8
7
10
13
7
10
10

14
13
11
9
13
15
18
19
20
14
97

PERT - Example Activity Characteristics

Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J

1-2
1-3
2-4
2-5
3-4
3-6
4-5
4-6
5-6
6-7

te

10
9
1
1
1
5
8
1
6
6

12
11
3
8
7
10
13
7
10
10

14
13
11
9
13
15
18
19
20
14

12
11
4
7
7
10
13
8
11
10

2/3
2/3
5/3
4/3
6/3
5/3
5/3
9/3
7/3
4/3
98

PERT - Example Network Flow Diagram

te =7
te =12

5
te =13

te =11

te =4
4

1
te =11

te =8

te =7
3

te =10

te =10

99

PERT - Example Network Flow Diagram

Find ES, EF, LS and LF times
ES=12
te =12

5
te =4

ES=0

ES=18
te =13

1
te =11

ES=31

te =7

ES=11
3

te =11

ES=52

te =8

7
ES=42

te =7

te =10

te =10

100

PERT - Example Network Flow Diagram

1-2
1-3
2-4
2-5
3-4
3-6
4-5
4-6
5-6
6-7

te

ES

LS

EF

LF

10
9
1
1
1
5
8
1
6
6

12
11
3
8
7
10
13
7
10
10

14
13
11
9
13
15
18
19
20
14

12
11
4
7
7
10
13
8
11
10

2/3
2/3
5/3
4/3
6/3
5/3
5/3
9/3
7/3
4/3

0
0
12
12
11
11
18
18
31
42

2
0
14
24
11
32
18
34
31
42

12
11
16
19
18
21
31
26
42
52

14
11
18
31
18
42
31
42
42
52
101

PERT Network Diagram with Critical Path

ES|LS|EF|LF
t2-5=7
12|24|19|31
t1-2=12
0|2|12|14

2
t2-4=4
12|14|16|18

4
t3-4=7
11|11|18|18

1
t1-3=11
0|0|11|11

t4-5=13
18|18|31|31

5
t4-6=8
18|34 |26|42

t5-6=11
31|31|42|42
7
6

t3-6=10
11|32|21|42

t6-7=10
42|42|52|52

102

PERT Analysis Procedure

1.
2.
3.

Draw the project network.

Compute the expected duration of each activity, te
Analyze the paths through the network (ES/EF/LS/LF) and find
the critical path.
The length of the critical path is the mean of the project duration
probability distribution which is assumed to be normal.

4.

Find the standard deviation of the project duration probability

distribution by adding the variances of the critical activities (all
of the activities that make up the critical path) and taking the
square root of that sum.

cp e21 e22 ... en2

5.

Probability computations can now be made using the normal

distribution table.
103

PERT Analysis
Probability Computation: the probability that a project is
completed within specified time.

Z=

x-
e

Where,

= te = project mean time

e = project standard deviation from the mean
x = (proposed ) specified time

104

PERT Analysis - Examples

Example 1. A 40km asphalt road project has an expected completion
time of 40 weeks, with a standard deviation of 5 weeks. What is the
probability of finishing the project in 50 weeks or less?
Solution:
Assume project completion time follows a normal distribution.

105

PERT Analysis - Examples

Z

X te

Normal Distribution

50 40

2.0
5
Standardized
Normal Distribution

106

PERT Analysis - Examples

Standardized Normal Probability Table (Portion)
Z - Table

Answer: The probability of completing the project in 50days or less is 0.98 or

107
98%.

PERT Analysis - Examples

Example 2: Given the following critical path of a project, find the
probability that the project be completed in less than 60days

1-3
3-4
4-5
5-6
6-7

a
9
1
8
6
6

m
11
7
13
10
10

b
13
13
18
20
14

te
11
7
13
11
10

e
2/3
6/3
5/3
7/3
4/3

( e)2
4/9
36/9
25/9
49/9
16/9

The sum of tes (Expected time of completing the project) = 52 days

Variance = 130/9 = 14.4
Std Dev = 3.8
The probability that the Project duration is less than 60 days = P(X<60)
Same as the Probability that Z < (60-52)/3.8 = 2.1
Therefore: P(X<60) = Pr(Z<2.1) = 0.98214 or 98.2% (from z-Table)108

PERT Analysis - Examples

Example 3. Consider the following PERT network.
a. Find the critical path and project due date
b. What is the probability that the project can be completed in
24 days?
c. What due date has about 90% of the project work be
completed?

109

PERT Analysis - Examples

Activity

Precedence

a (hr.)

m(hr.)

b(hr.)

--

--

4.5

0.5

1.5

B,C

B,C

1.5

E,F

E,F

D,H

2.5

2.75

4.5

G,I

110

PERT Analysis - Examples

b) Critical Path and project due date
Activity

Precedence

a (hr.)

m(hr.)

b(hr.)

te (hr.)

Var.

--

4/9

--

4.5

4/9

1/9

0.5

1.5

1/36

B,C

1/9

B,C

1.5

4/9

E,F

1/9

E,F

D,H

2.5

2.75

4.5

1/9

G,I

111 4/9

PERT Analysis - Examples

Activity Prece. a (hr.)

m(hr.)

b(hr.)

te (hr.)

Var.

ES

EF

LS

LF

--

4/9

--

4.5

4/9

1/9

11

15

20

0.5

1.5

1/36

12

13

B,C

1/9

13

13

B,C

1.5

4/9

11

16

18

E,F

1/9

13

19

14

20

E,F

13

18

13

18

D,H

2.5

2.75

4.5

1/9

19

22

20

23

G,I

4/9

18

23

18

23

Project due date = 23

112

PERT Analysis - Examples

And,

Varpath = VarA + VarC + VarF + VarI + VarK

= 4/9 + 0 + 1/9 + 1 + 4/9
= 2
path = 1.414

b) Z = (X - )/(24 - 23)/(24-23)/1.414 = 0.71

From the standard normal distribution table:

P(z < 0.71) = 0.5 + 0.2612 = 0.7612 or 76%
c) For 90% probability, Z = 1.28 (from Z-table). Therefore,
Z = (X - )/1.28 (X - 23)/1.4141.28
X = 23+1.414*1.28 = 24.81hrs

113

PERT Analysis - Examples

Example 4. The activity times, expected value and variance of a project
is given below. Find
a. What is the probability that the project takes at least 10days?
b. What is the probability that the project takes less than 7days?
Activity

te

Var.

4/36

12

64/36

36/36

4/36

114

PERT Analysis - Examples

Solution:
a. The probability that the project takes at least 10days?

10 9

P(t 10) P Z
PZ 0.95 1 PZ 0.95 1 0.8289 0.1711
40 / 36

Answer: The probability that the project at least 10days = 0.17 or 17%
115

PERT Analysis - Examples

Solution:
b. The probability that the project takes less than 7days?

79

P(t 7) P Z
PZ 1.90 0.0287
40 / 36

Answer: The probability that the project takes less than 7days = 0.029 or
116 2.9%

PERT Advantage and Limitations

Advantages
Accounts for uncertainty
Disadvantages
Time and labor intensive
Assumption of unlimited resources is big issue
Assumption that duration is most probable value is not
accurate
Mostly used only on large, complex project

117

THANK YOU