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Культура Документы
5/30/2016
CHART: IMF Perspective on Global Transitions & Associated Risks ............................................................................................................. 609
CHART: Global Consumer Confidence Turns................................................................................................................................................. 609
CHART: Global Consumer Confidence Momentum versus Bond Yields ....................................................................................................... 610
CHART: Bear Grip Felt Around the World ....................................................................................................................................................... 610
CHART: Emerging Market FX in Freefall ........................................................................................................................................................ 611
CHART: Asian Dollar Index Sends Ominous Sign .......................................................................................................................................... 612
CHART: Biggest Currency Losers ................................................................................................................................................................... 612
CHART: The Great Unwind - A Triple Unwind of EM Credit, Chinas Leverage and US Monetary Easing ................................................... 613
CHART: Latin Americas Economic Slowdown ............................................................................................................................................... 614
CHART: Global Stock of Debt Outstanding Grows By $57T since Financial Crisis ....................................................................................... 614
CHART: Decade-Long Central Bank FX Reserves Surge Nears End ............................................................................................................ 615
CHART: Global Business Equipment Investment ........................................................................................................................................... 616
CHART: EM versus DM Credit Risk ................................................................................................................................................................ 617
CHART: MSCI World P/E versus EM P/E ....................................................................................................................................................... 617
CHART: Emerging Capital Flows & Currency Moves ..................................................................................................................................... 618
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Jog Prospects Reach 50% - First Time In 7 Years ................................................................................. 674
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Consumer Confidence by Country .......................................................................................................... 676
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Consumer Confidence Trends by Country .............................................................................................. 677
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Northern American Spending Intentions Rise According to Nielsen .................................................................. 678
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 679
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Business Confidence Collapses To Post-Lehman Lows ........................................................................ 679
GLOBAL SENTIMENT The State Of Economic 'Misery' Around The World ........................................................................................... 681
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Highest Level Since 2007 ................................................................................................................................... 685
GLOBAL SENTIMENT - Complacent .......................................................................................................................................................... 686
GLOBAL SENTIMENT - Complacent .......................................................................................................................................................... 688
GLOBAL SENTIMENT - Nielsens Global Consumer Confidence, Concerns & Spending Intentions ........................................................ 689
CREDIT CYCLE - Reversal Ahead .............................................................................................................................................................. 700
GLOBAL EMPLOYMENT....................................................................................................................................................................................... 703
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 703
CHART Global Employment Rates ........................................................................................................................................................... 703
CHART Global Unemployment ................................................................................................................................................................. 704
CHART Global Unemployment EU Comparison ................................................................................................................................... 704
CHART Unemployment in Advanced Countries ....................................................................................................................................... 705
CHART Global Labor Participation Rates ................................................................................................................................................ 705
CHART Global Youth Unemployment By Country ................................................................................................................................ 706
CHART Global Chance of Finding a Job Within Year .............................................................................................................................. 706
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 707
GLOBAL UNEMPLOYMENT - The Beginnings of the Welfare Myth Unwind ............................................................................................. 707
GLOBAL UNEMPLOYMENT - The Unsustainable Welfare Myth ............................................................................................................... 709
GLOBAL UNEMPLOYMENT - Global Financial Sector Job Cuts ............................................................................................................... 711
GLOBAL GROWTH ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 713
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 713
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH World Trade Prices/Unit in US$ ..................................................................................................................... 713
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH World Trade by Value .................................................................................................................................... 713
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH World Trade Prices Per Unit Values in USD Index........................................................................................ 713
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH Yardenis Global Growth Barometer .............................................................................................................. 714
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH Anemic Global Revenue Growth ................................................................................................................... 715
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH World Trade Growth & Value in US$ Terms .................................................................................................. 715
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH Global Manufacturing PMI ............................................................................................................................. 716
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH Dismal Trade Growth Limits Scope for Competitive Devaluations ................................................................ 716
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Nominal Y-o-Y GDP Grow ........................................................................................................................... 717
GLOBAL GROWTH World Trade Volume Y-o-Y ..................................................................................................................................... 717
GLOBAL GROWTH World Industrial Production ..................................................................................................................................... 717
GLOBAL GROWTH World Trade Values in US$ ..................................................................................................................................... 718
GLOBAL GROWTH World Industrial Production ..................................................................................................................................... 719
GLOBAL GROWTH World Trade (Values in US$) Index ......................................................................................................................... 720
GLOBAL GROWTH World Trade Volumes Annual % Change 1966 to May 2015 .............................................................................. 721
GLOBAL GROWTH US Imports (Volumes) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ............................................................................. 722
GLOBAL GROWTH US Imports (Values) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ................................................................................ 722
GLOBAL GROWTH JAPAN Imports (Volumes) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ...................................................................... 723
GLOBAL GROWTH JAPAN Imports Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ........................................................................................... 723
GLOBAL GROWTH EURO AREA Imports (Volumes) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ............................................................ 724
GLOBAL GROWTH EURO AREA (Values) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ............................................................................. 724
GLOBAL GROWTH EMERGING ASIA Imports (Volumes) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ..................................................... 725
GLOBAL GROWTH EMERGING ASIA (Values) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ..................................................................... 725
GLOBAL GROWTH LATIN AMERICA Imports (Volumes) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ...................................................... 726
GLOBAL GROWTH LATIN AMERICA (Values) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ...................................................................... 726
GLOBAL GROWTH CHINAS Imports, Annual % Change ...................................................................................................................... 727
GLOBAL GROWTH CHINAS Exports, Annual % Change ...................................................................................................................... 727
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Leading Indicator Swirlogram Gets Worse ............................................................................................... 728
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Leading Indicator Signals Contraction ......................................................................................................... 729
GLOBAL GROWTH Eurozone PMI and GDP .......................................................................................................................................... 730
GLOBAL GROWTH World PMI Rankings ................................................................................................................................................ 731
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Leading Indicator Has Now Rolled Over ...................................................................................................... 732
GLOBAL GROWTH Global PMI Business Surveys Fall .......................................................................................................................... 732
GLOBAL GROWTH Baltic Dry Index Collapses 50% .............................................................................................................................. 733
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Slowdown on Verge of Contraction.............................................................................................................. 734
GLOBAL GROWTH - GDP Forecasts Continue to Be Taken Down........................................................................................................... 734
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Leading Indicator Goldmans Swirlogram Getting More Serious ......................................................... 734
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Industrial Production Rolling Over ............................................................................................................. 735
GLOBAL GROWTH Consensus 2014 GDP Forecast - Differential ......................................................................................................... 736
GLOBAL GROWTH G10 Macro Change ................................................................................................................................................. 736
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 737
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH - Manufacturing Recession Goes Global as Demand Withers ......................................................................... 737
GLOBAL GROWTH - World Trade & Industrial Production Growth near Post-Crisis Lows ....................................................................... 738
GLOBAL GROWTH - CEO of World's Largest Shipping Company: "Global Growth Is Worse Than Official Reports".............................. 741
GLOBAL GROWTH - World's Busiest Freight Route Rates Plunge To 2014 Lows ................................................................................... 743
GLOBAL GROWTH - Goldman Global Leading Indicator Drastically Revised, Collapses into "Confirmed Slowdown" ............................ 745
GLOBAL GROWTH - The Wal-Mart Measure or How the US Consumer Is the Global Engine ................................................................ 746
GLOBAL GROWTH Potential of a Global Recession Mounting .............................................................................................................. 748
GLOBAL GROWTH What the hint of a Fed Taper Did to Global Growth Estimates ............................................................................. 752
SWISS PEG Swiss Peg Failure The Financial System Broke Last Week ............................................................................................ 846
SWISS PEG Swiss Peg Failure Keynesian Contral Banking is Destroying Money & Markets ............................................................ 847
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS ..................................................................................................................................................................... 851
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS Insider Says Central Banks Making it Up as They Go! ....................................................................... 851
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS 2007 Redux: Total public and private debt levels are 30pc higher in the advanced economies ........ 852
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS Polish Pension Confiscation: Coming to a Theater near You .......................................................... 855
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS Global Tax Overhaul ............................................................................................................................ 857
BOE - UK ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 858
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 858
UK Sterling/ US Dollar Exchange Rate after UK Super Thursday ......................................................................................................... 858
UK Dissent within BOE Set to Continue ................................................................................................................................................... 858
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 859
UK - Neutral Report Leaves BOE on Track for February Liftoff .................................................................................................................. 859
UK - Did The Bank Of England Just Admit Financial Markets Aren't "Real"? ............................................................................................. 861
UK - BOE Faces Labor Market Conundrum as Wage Growth Stalls .......................................................................................................... 862
UK - Mark Carney and "Flexible Inflation Targeting" ................................................................................................................................... 863
FED - US ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 865
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 866
NEW-CHARTS Pace of Fed Hikes v 2-30 Yeild Curve v 2016 GDP Growth Expectations .................................................................... 866
CHARTS Fed Balance Sheet Trend Changes versus S&P 500 .............................................................................................................. 866
CHARTS Fed May Potentially Hike Rates When Liquidity Conditions Are Negative .............................................................................. 866
CHARTS Fed Tightening Periods versus US and World GDP Growth .................................................................................................... 868
CHARTS Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Trend Changes ..................................................................................................................... 868
CHARTS Long Term Rates Fell in the Last Tightening Cycle ................................................................................................................. 869
CHARTS Markets have been Pricing in a Fed Rate Liftoff Since 2009 ................................................................................................... 869
CHARTS Long Term Trend of 10Y UST .................................................................................................................................................. 869
CHARTS Likely Policy Support Levels by the Federal Reserve for a Falling S&P .................................................................................. 870
CHARTS Inflation Expectations versus Fed QE Easing Operations ....................................................................................................... 871
CHARTS Depth of US Treasury Markets Has Declined from Recent Highs ........................................................................................... 871
CHARTS China Dumping US Treasuries as Chinese Forex Reserves Fall ............................................................................................ 872
CHARTS US Defenses Down ................................................................................................................................................................... 873
CHARTS September Rate Hike Forecast History .................................................................................................................................... 874
CHARTS Only One Thing Can Stop the Fed from a September Rate Hike Emerging Market Weakness .......................................... 874
CHARTS Feds QE History versus UST 10 Year Yields .......................................................................................................................... 875
CHARTS Fed Balance Sheet Growth ....................................................................................................................................................... 875
CHARTS June 2015 Fed Rates Hikes Diminish....................................................................................................................................... 875
CHARTS Inflation Expectations 1 Yr, 5010Yr, 5Yr/5Yr ......................................................................................................................... 876
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 877
US MONETARY Why We Have Low Level Equilibria............................................................................................................................ 877
US MONETARY Crashing Inflation Expectations Suggest Imminent Launch Of QE4 ............................................................................. 879
US MONETARY Why Goldman Is Confident the Fed Will Wait To Hike Until December (At Least) ...................................................... 880
US MONETARY Forget Rate Hikes: Bridgewater Says QE4 Is Next; Warns World Is Approaching End of Debt Supercycle .............. 882
US MONETARY What Options Are Saying About A Possible September Rate Hike ............................................................................. 883
US MONETARY The Fed Is Scared To Raise Rates, Ron Paul Warns "Everything Is Too Vulnerable" ................................................ 885
US MONETARY Hilsenrath Warns Fed Is Out Of Ammo, "Policy Makers Resorting To Backup, Backup Plans" .................................. 886
US MONETARY China's Record Dumping Of US Treasuries Leaves Goldman Speechless ................................................................. 888
US MONETARY Fed Goes Looking For Evidence of Broken Treasury Market, Decides Everything Is Fine ......................................... 893
US MONETARY The Fed Is Out Of Options, "QE Is All It Can Do Here" Art Cashin Predicts ................................................................ 898
US MONETARY - Humphrey Hawkins Testimony - Yellen Secures More Flexibility for 'Patient' Fed ....................................................... 898
US MONETARY - Audit the Fed Yellens Testimony ................................................................................................................................ 901
US MONETARY - Criticism by Architect of Japanese Quantitative Easing of Fed Policy .......................................................................... 910
US MONETARY - CAPITAL DISTORTION - Global Acceptance of the Bernankean Theory .................................................................... 913
US MONETARY - FINANCIAL REPRESSION - The Suspension of Price Discovery................................................................................ 916
US MONETARY - The Fed is stuck in a QE Trap ....................................................................................................................................... 919
US MONETARY - 2nd Worst Decade In US Growth in Over 220 Years (And Getting Worse) .................................................................. 921
US MONETARY - Mathematically, The Fed Can Only Fail......................................................................................................................... 923
US MONETARY - QE Standing Between Inflated Equity Markets and A Recession ................................................................................. 929
US MONETARY - QE Programs versus S&P 500 Movements .................................................................................................................. 930
US MONETARY - BAML Warns If The US Economy Does Not Significantly Accelerate Now, It Never Will............................................. 932
US MONETARY - Debt Increases $1 Trillion in One Year .......................................................................................................................... 934
GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS The Road Ahead ......................................................................................................................................................... 937
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 937
JAPAN Japan Heads Back towards Deflation .......................................................................................................................................... 937
JAPAN The Third Arrow of ABE-Nomics -I ............................................................................................................................................... 938
JAPAN The Third Arrow of ABE-Nomics II ............................................................................................................................................. 939
JAPAN Japanese Households Remain Pessimistic ................................................................................................................................. 940
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 941
GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS - Japan Shocked To Find Abenomics Is Destroying Its Middle Class ................................................................. 941
GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS - "Godfather" Of Abenomics Admits Japanese Policy "Is A Ponzi Game............................................................ 943
GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS Monetary Expansion Extremely Difficult to Stop Once Started ........................................................................ 944
GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS Monetary Policy Below the Event Horizon ................................................................................................... 947
BOJ JAPAN ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 949
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 949
NEW-JAPAN Japans NGDP, Tax Revenue, Expenditures and Bond Issuances ................................................................................... 949
NEW-JAPAN BOJs Balance Sheet of % of GDP .................................................................................................................................... 950
CHINA LIQUIDITY Infrastructure Investment Offsets Weak Real Estate .............................................................................................. 1108
CHINA LIQUIDITY Shadow Banks Step Back Into Light ....................................................................................................................... 1108
CHINA LIQUIDITY Hopes that Credit Growth Will Spur Property Sales ................................................................................................ 1109
CHINA LIQUIDITY Transport, Construction Data Point to Slower Growth ............................................................................................ 1109
CHINA LIQUIDITY Little Impetus for Turnaround in Investor Sentiment ............................................................................................... 1110
CHINA LIQUIDITY Industrial Output & Exports Continue to Trend the Wrong Way ............................................................................. 1111
CHINA LIQUIDITY GDP Growth Trend .................................................................................................................................................. 1111
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1113
CHINA LIQUIDITY - PBOC Injects Massive $60 Billion Liquidity - Most In 3 Years; China Stocks, Yuan Drop ...................................... 1113
CHINA LIQUIDITY - "China 2016 Is US 2008" Felix Zulauf Warns "The Outcome of A Major Yuan Devaluation Would Be Disastrous"
.................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1115
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Pressures on the Yuan Held in Check by Reserve Currency Depletion .................................................................. 1119
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Hugh Hendry - Why China's Biggest Bear, Became One Of Its Biggest Bulls ........................................................ 1121
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Three Reasons China May Cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio ............................................................................ 1125
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Reverses Direction and Begins Easing .................................................................................................................... 1127
CHINA LIQUIDITY - One Rate Cut Probably Not Sufficient to Sustain China's Growth ........................................................................... 1128
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Troubling Signs of Deflation in China ....................................................................................................................... 1129
CHINA LIQUIDITY - The Next Phase of Chinas Financial Deepening .................................................................................................... 1131
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Steady decline in private sector activity ................................................................................................................... 1132
CHINA LIQUIDITY - China Credit Risk Overshadows Outlook for Emerging Equities ............................................................................. 1133
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Easy Money Wont Solve Chinas Hard Problems .............................................................................................. 1136
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Housing Bubble Restricting PBOC Actions ........................................................................................................ 1138
CHINA LIQUIDITY - PBOC Squeezing Banks towards Reducing Speculative Risk .......................................................................... 1141
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Overnight Repo at 25% .......................................................................................................................................... 1142
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Red Flags ................................................................................................................................................................. 1143
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Credit Fueled Growth ............................................................................................................................................... 1146
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Shadow Banking System Showing Signs of Implosion ..................................................................................... 1151
CHINA LIQUIDITY - PBOC Wants to Hold the Line on Explosive Credit Expansion through A Liquidity Squeeze ...................... 1154
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Potentially De-Stabilizing Cash Crunch ............................................................................................................... 1156
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Chinese Liquidity Pump Unplugged .................................................................................................................... 1157
CURRENCY WARS BACK ON Rate Wars Reversed With Un-Taper ............................................................................................................. 1159
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1159
CURRENCY WARS Falling US$ PEGS of Oil Exporter Nations ........................................................................................................... 1159
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1160
CURRENCY WARS - Square Holes and Currency Pegs ......................................................................................................................... 1160
CURRENCY WARS - Pegs under pressure - Currency pegs are still in fashion, but some are creaking................................................ 1163
CURRENCY WARS - Another Petro-State Throws In the Towel: The Last Nail In The Petrodollar Coffin .............................................. 1166
CURRENCY WARS - A Currency War That Few Economists And Analysts Notice, Much Less Understand......................................... 1167
CURRENCY WARS - A Major Shift............................................................................................................................................................... 1171
BATTLEFIELD - Combatants & Belligerents ................................................................................................................................................. 1176
BATTLEFIIELD - The Race to Debase ......................................................................................................................................................... 1177
JAPAN - The Destabilizing Agent .................................................................................................................................................................. 1179
EUROPE - Euro Exposed .............................................................................................................................................................................. 1179
ARGENTINA - Here we Go Again! ................................................................................................................................................................ 1181
VENEZUELLA - Bad Situation ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1182
BRAZIL - No One Wants to Listen ................................................................................................................................................................. 1182
SWITZERLAND - No Choice ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1182
SINGAPORE - Hot Money ............................................................................................................................................................................. 1183
UK- Pound Joins War .................................................................................................................................................................................... 1184
PRIOR REPORT UPDATES & EDITIONS .......................................................................................................................................................... 1185
GEO-ECONOMICS OF ENERGY & PETRO$ - Petro$$ Coming Unglued ........................................................................................................ 1185
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1185
ENERGY Islamic versus Qatar-Turkey Pipeline..................................................................................................................................... 1185
ENERGY Sunni versus Shiite In the Middle East ................................................................................................................................... 1186
ENERGY The Iranian Encirclement Strategy....................................................................................................................................... 1186
ENERGY Drowning in Oil Over Supply .................................................................................................................................................. 1188
ENERGY Rig Count Down But Not Production ...................................................................................................................................... 1188
ENERGY Saudi Crude Oil Production & Brent Price ............................................................................................................................. 1190
ENERGY World Liquids Percent of Production ...................................................................................................................................... 1190
ENERGY Interest Rates & Oil Prices in 2015 Dollars ............................................................................................................................ 1190
ENERGY Oil Production and CAPEX by Operating Environment 2014 ................................................................................................ 1191
ENERGY Global Drilling Intensity Will Increase ..................................................................................................................................... 1191
ENERGY Most US shale play costs are below $80 a barrel Challenged when approaching $60 .................................................... 1192
ENERGY Breakeven for All Global Oil Projects ..................................................................................................................................... 1193
ENERGY Putin Cancels South Stream through Bulgaria To Go Through Turkey .............................................................................. 1194
ENERGY Putin Cancels South Stream through Bulgaria To Go Through Turkey .............................................................................. 1195
ENERGY Petro$$ Capital Exports Go Negative for First Time in 18 Years .......................................................................................... 1196
ENERGY Falling Inflation Adjusted Gasoline Prices .............................................................................................................................. 1197
ENERGY US v Saudi Oil Production now Equal at near 12B bl/Day ..................................................................................................... 1198
ENERGY US Shale Oil Breakeven Prices .............................................................................................................................................. 1200
ENERGY OPEC Announcement Crushes Ruble & WTI Crude ............................................................................................................. 1200
ENERGY USDRUB Rise Means Russian Loans in US$ In Big Trouble- Investment Collapse ............................................................ 1201
ENERGY EM Oil Producers Being Crushed .......................................................................................................................................... 1201
ENERGY Market Cap Impacts of OPEC Decision ................................................................................................................................. 1202
ENERGY Oil Supply / Demand and Price .............................................................................................................................................. 1203
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1204
SAUDI-IRAN-Iran, Saudi Arabia "Clash" Over Syria At "Secret", Closed-Door Meeting In Davos ....................................................... 1204
SAUDI-IRAN- Another Petro-State Throws In The Towel: The Last Nail In The Petrodollar Coffin ..................................................... 1206
SAUDI-IRAN- Mainstream Media Finally Admits Syrian Conflict Is US-Russia Proxy War ................................................... 1208
SAUDI-IRAN- Russia and Iran Moving To Corner The Mideast Oil Supply .......................................................................................... 1213
SAUDI-IRAN- Migrant Crisis & Syria War Fueled By Competing Gas Pipelines ...................................................................... 1216
RUSSIA- Putin Kills "South Stream" Pipeline, Will Build New Massive Pipeline To Turkey Instead .................................................... 1220
RUSSIA- OPEC Presents: QE4 And Deflation ...................................................................................................................................... 1223
RUSSIA Energy War ........................................................................................................................................................................... 1225
PETRODOLLAR The Saudis And US Collusion Behind the Falling Oil Prices ....................................................................... 1228
PETRODOLLAR Who Is Saudi Arabia Really Targeting In Its Price War? ............................................................................ 1232
PETRODOLLAR "There Will Be Blood": Petrodollar Death Ignites Liquidity And Oil-Exporting Crisis ........................... 1237
PETRODOLLAR Collapsing PetroDollar Foundation ......................................................................................................................... 1243
UKRAINE - Pulled between EU v Russia .............................................................................................................................................. 1247
UKRAINE - Pulled between An Ethnic Eastern and Western Ukraine .................................................................................................. 1247
UKRAINE - Pulled between Economic Inequality Factors ..................................................................................................................... 1248
UKRAINE - Pulled between the Global Military Balance ....................................................................................................................... 1249
UKRAINE - Pulled by Global Financial Markets .................................................................................................................................... 1250
UKRAINE - A Deep State Analysis ........................................................................................................................................................ 1253
ENERGY China Uses Crude Drop to Build Strategic Oil Reserve ..................................................................................................... 1257
ENERGY - The Shale Bust Arrives: November Permits For New Shale Wells Tumble 15% ............................................................... 1258
ENERGY - Crude Crash Slams Venezuelan Bonds To Close At 5-Year Lows: 21% Yield .................................................... 1259
ENERGY - The Oil Price Decline ........................................................................................................................................................... 1261
ENERGY - The Oil-Drenched Black Swan, Part 2................................................................................................................................. 1268
ENERGY - The Oil-Drenched Black Swan, Part 1 ......................................................................................................................... 1270
ENERGY - OPEC Presents: QE4 and Deflation .................................................................................................................................... 1273
ENERGY - The Sellside Chimes In On The Crude Crush: "This Will Reverberate For Years" ............................................. 1278
ENERGY - OPEC Decision "Major Strike Against", Russian Tycoon Says Shale Oil Doesnt Work < $80bl ................................... 1279
ENERGY - Energy Quakes as OPEC Stands Pat ................................................................................................................................. 1281
ENERGY - World's Largest Rig Operator, The "Recovery" Is Now Worse Than The Post-Lehman Crash ......................................... 1284
ENERGY - US "Secret" Deal with Saudis Backfires After Oil Minister Says US Should Cut First ....................................................... 1287
ENERGY - The 2014 Oil Price Crash Explained ............................................................................................................................. 1291
ENERGY - Crude and Credit Warn Of The Elongated Cycle Double Peak ............................................................................... 1296
ENERGY - Major Inflection Point Coming Near-Term In Energy Prices ............................................................................................... 1303
ENERGY - Russia Prepares Mega-Deal with India after Locking Up China With "Holy Grail" Gas Deal ............................................. 1306
ENERGY - Putin Prepares To Announce "Holy Grail" Gas Deal With China ........................................................................................ 1308
ENERGY - The Growing Rift with Saudi Arabia Threatens To Severely Damage the Petrodollar ....................................................... 1310
EMERGING & FRONTIER MARKETS - Emerging Markets Growth, Credit & Forex Problems - Fx Plummet ................................................ 1315
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1315
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1319
CHARTS MSCI Emerging Markets Start to Year % - Worst Ever .......................................................................................................... 1319
CHARTS FX markets are collapsing as traders are betting policy makers will not continue defending exchange rates ...................... 1319
CHARTS Premium investors demand to hold EM debt over U.S. Treasuries widened to 481 ............................................................. 1320
CHARTS Capital Controls Arrive In Emerging Markets China & Azerbiajan ...................................................................................... 1320
CHARTS EM Credit Outstanding in US Dollars Increased $17.7T Since 2006 ..................................................................................... 1321
CHARTS EM Credit Has Expanded Dramatically Compared to Developed Markets ............................................................................ 1322
CHARTS Emerging Market 10 Year Shift in Share of World GDP 2004 to 2014 ............................................................................... 1323
CHARTS Emerging Market Fx in Freefall ............................................................................................................................................... 1323
CHARTS Total Economy Debt as a % of GDP India, Poland, Ireland and Spain .............................................................................. 1323
CHARTS Global FX Reserves 2000 versus 2005 versus 2015 .......................................................................................................... 1324
CHARTS GDP per Capita Income .......................................................................................................................................................... 1325
CHARTS EMERGING ASIA (Values) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 .................................................................................... 1326
CHARTS Brazil in or Near a Serious Recession .................................................................................................................................... 1326
CHARTS Collapsing Currencies in Columbia and Chile ......................................................................................................................... 1327
CHARTS The Unwind of EM Credit, Chinas Leverage and US Monetary Easing ................................................................................ 1328
CHARTS The Tale of Two Economies Chile versus Portugal ............................................................................................................ 1329
CHARTS Emerging & Developed Economy Growth Rates Converge ................................................................................................... 1330
CHARTS Emerging Market Currency Sell-Off ........................................................................................................................................ 1330
CHARTS Emerging Markets Stocks versus Developed Market Stocks ................................................................................................. 1331
CHARTS Investors Are Pulling Money From Developing Markets ........................................................................................................ 1332
CHARTS Valuation of EM Stocks is Falling Against Developed Markets .............................................................................................. 1332
CHARTS EM Capital Outflows Surge Towards $1T .............................................................................................................................. 1333
CHARTS Developing Nation Currencies Plunge After Chinas Devaluation Rattles Markets ............................................................... 1333
CHARTS Emerging Markets Facing Both Capital Out Flows and Falling Currencies ........................................................................... 1335
CHARTS Wide Spread Emerging Market Capital Out Flows ................................................................................................................. 1336
CHARTS Emerging Market Debt versus GDP - 2013 ............................................................................................................................ 1337
CHARTS Emerging Market Resilience Indicator Changes .................................................................................................................... 1337
CHARTS BRIC Countries Responsible for 43% of Global Growth ........................................................................................................ 1338
CHARTS BRIC & Emerging Market Inflation Rates ............................................................................................................................... 1338
CHARTS Emerging Market Default Probability ...................................................................................................................................... 1339
CHARTS Emerging Market versus Developed Market Public Debt and External Borrowing Positions ................................................ 1339
CHARTS Emerging Market Outflows...................................................................................................................................................... 1340
CHARTS Emerging Market Outflows -2 ................................................................................................................................................. 1340
CHARTS Developed versus Emerging Equity Markets 1990-2014 .................................................................................................... 1341
CHARTS Total GEM Flows..................................................................................................................................................................... 1341
CHARTS The Emerging Markets Have Been Weakening Since 2011 .................................................................................................. 1342
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1343
EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging Markets Running Scared with Capital Controls ............................................................................... 1343
EMERGING MARKETS - For Emerging Markets, It Is Now Worse Than the Asian Financial Crisis ....................................................... 1344
EMERGING MARKETS - Be Very Afraid: "The 3 EM Debacles" Loom, HSBC Warns ............................................................................ 1347
EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging Market Currencies To Crash 30-50%, Jen Says ............................................................................. 1350
EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging Market Mayhem: Gross Warns Of "Debacle" As Currencies, Bonds Collapse .............................. 1352
EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging markets: Redrawing the world map ................................................................................................. 1358
EMERGING MARKETS - Lost Decade in Emerging Markets: Investors Already Halfway There ............................................................ 1365
EMERGING MARKETS - JP Morgan Has A "Problem" With Emerging Markets ..................................................................................... 1370
EMERGING MARKETS - Which Emerging Markets Are Most Vulnerable To "External Shock" .............................................................. 1373
EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging markets: The great unraveling ......................................................................................................... 1375
EMERGING MARKETS - Moodys warns on EM dollar finance costs ...................................................................................................... 1380
EMERGING MARKETS - Fragile Five: The new focus of currency wars ............................................................................................. 1381
EMERGING MARKETS - Crisis Redux? ................................................................................................................................................... 1382
EMERGING MARKETS - Losing Their Punch ....................................................................................................................................... 1387
EMERGING MARKETS - Risk-On!........................................................................................................................................................... 1389
EMERGING MARKETS - Asia, BRIC, Emerging Markets Crater IBM Earnings .................................................................................. 1390
EMERGING MARKETS - Crisis Temporarily Halted .............................................................................................................................. 1392
EMERGING MARKETS - Increasing Liquidity Problems In Selected Markets .................................................................................. 1393
EMERGING MARKETS - The plight of four Asian countries - China, India, Indonesia and Japan. ................................................. 1399
EMERGING MARKETS - The Impact of "TAPER" ................................................................................................................................. 1404
EMERGING MARKETS - EM Crisis will make the 1997 Asian Crisis Seem like an Early Warning ................................................... 1408
EMERGING MARKETS - Global Deleveraging Accelerating and Developing Nations Feeling the Pain ........................................ 1411
US$ RESERVE STATUS & ERODING INFLUENCE.......................................................................................................................................... 1414
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED DE=DOLLARIZATION ............................................................................................................................ 1414
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1417
DE-DOLLARIZATION - Countries that have joined the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank ............................................... 1417
DE-DOLLARIZATION - AIIBs Founding Members ................................................................................................................................... 1417
DE-DOLLARIZATION - Asias Infrastructure Legs & the AIIBs Expected Capital Structure ................................................................... 1418
DE-DOLLARIZATION - AIIB Infrastructure Investment ............................................................................................................................. 1419
DE-DOLLARIZATION - The Rise & Fall of Modern Empires .................................................................................................................... 1419
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1421
DE-DOLLARIZATION - U.S. Looks to Work with China-Led Infrastructure Fund..................................................................................... 1421
DE-DOLLARIZATION - US Hegemony, Dollar Dominance Are Officially Dead ....................................................................................... 1425
DE-DOLLARIZATION - The BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) with its Own SDRs Is Coming ....................................................... 1427
DE-DOLLARIZATION - China Takes Aim At Dollar Reserve Status: Promotes Yuan In Investment Bank ............................................. 1429
DE-DOLLARIZATION - Kazakhstan Authorities Announce Plans To De-Dollarize Economy .................................................................. 1431
DE-DOLLARIZATION - China to urge firms to sell bonds overseas to fund new Silk Road to Europe .................................................... 1433
DE-DOLLARIZATION - Is This The Most Important Chart For The Future Of The World's Reserve Currency? ..................................... 1433
DE-DOLLARIZATION - Is Russia Planning A Gold-Based Currency? ..................................................................................................... 1437
DE-DOLLARIZATION - De-Dollarization Accelerates: Russia Launches SWIFT-Alternative Linking 91 Entities .................................... 1439
DE-DOLLARIZATION - What if China, Russia Succeed in Going off the Dollar?..................................................................................... 1440
RESERVE CURRENCY - Asian Infrastructure Investment bank challenges U.S. supremacy ................................................................ 1441
RESERVE CURRENCY - March the moment the US lost its role as the underwriter of the global economic system.......................... 1443
RESERVE CURRENCY - - It just happened: The moment the United States lost its role . . . ............................................................... 1445
RESERVE CURRENCY - The World Is Beginning To Bypass America's Financial & Legally-Leveraged Political Power ..................... 1446
RESERVE CURRENCY - Putin Adviser Proposes "Anti-Dollar Alliance ................................................................................................. 1447
RESERVE CURRENCY - Chinese, Swiss Central Banks Sign Bilateral Swap Agreement ..................................................................... 1448
RESERVE CURRENCY - France, Brazil, India & Now South Korea Join Russia & China In Post-Dollar World Order .......................... 1449
RESERVE CURRENCY - Frances Noyer Says BNP May Prompt Shift Away From Dollar .................................................................... 1452
RESERVE CURRENCY - More Russian Companies Set To Drop Dollar, Switch To Chinese Yuan ...................................................... 1453
RESERVE CURRENCY - Russia, China sign deal to bypass U.S. dollar ................................................................................................ 1455
RESERVE CURRENCY - Japan May Eclipse China Again, as Largest Holder of US Treasuries .................................................... 1456
GOLD WARS Failing Developed Economies versus Rising Emerging Economies......................................................................................... 1458
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1458
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1460
GOLD WARS Plummeting Gold Holdings at NY Fed from Foreign Repatriation .................................................................................. 1460
GOLD WARS Gold : Debt Ratio Correlation Something Seriously Amiss! ......................................................................................... 1460
GOLD WARS Nominal & Real Price of Gold 1790-2013 .................................................................................................................... 1462
GOLD WARS Gold v S&P 500 Against True Austrian Money Supply ................................................................................................... 1462
GOLD WARS Swiss National Bank Gold, FX & Total Assets ................................................................................................................ 1463
GOLD WARS Sovereign Gold Holdings According to the World Gold Council ..................................................................................... 1463
GOLD WARS European Countries Gold Reserves Repatriation ........................................................................................................... 1464
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1466
GOLD WARS - Federal Reserve Confirms Biggest Foreign Gold Withdrawal in Over Ten Years ........................................................... 1466
GOLD WARS - European Nations Repatriate Gold Reserves from United States Vaults ....................................................................... 1467
GOLD WARS - Gold Shortage, Worst in 21st Century, And India Just Made It Worse ............................................................................ 1470
GOLD WARS - Deutsche Bank's Modest Proposal To Central Banks: "Purchase The Gold Held By Private Households" ................... 1472
INTERNATIONAL BANKING & SHADOW BANKING ......................................................................................................................................... 1474
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1476
DEBT Growth of Financial Services ....................................................................................................................................................... 1477
DEBT REITS & CMBS Growth ............................................................................................................................................................... 1477
DEBT - GLOBAL DEBT 313% of GDP...................................................................................................................................................... 1479
DEBT - 202M GLOBALLY UNEMPLOYED DEBTORS ............................................................................................................................ 1481
FOOD PRICES & SHORTAGES Potential Disruption...................................................................................................................................... 1482
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ............................................................................................................................................................................. 1482
CHARTS - GERMANY Germany now leading the way back up in Euro Zone ...................................................................................... 1877
CHARTS - GERMANY On rolling bi-weekly basis, the 10-yr Bund yield rise of 43 bps is about as big as it gets in recent history ..... 1878
CHARTS - GERMANY - 1.179% 30 Year Bond Yield .............................................................................................................................. 1879
CHARTS - GERMANY 2 Year Sovereign Yield Goes Negative ............................................................................................................ 1879
CHARTS - GERMANY 10 Year Sovereign Bund versus US10 Treasury .............................................................................................. 1879
CHARTS - GERMANY German & Japanese Yield Curves Are Remarkably Close .............................................................................. 1880
CHARTS - GERMANY 10 Y European Yields........................................................................................................................................ 1881
CHARTS - GERMANY German Unemployment .................................................................................................................................... 1882
CHARTS - GERMANY German Core Inflation ....................................................................................................................................... 1882
CHARTS - GERMANY 10 Year Sovereign Bund versus US10 Treasury .............................................................................................. 1882
CHARTS - GERMANY Expectations Component Peaked In January ................................................................................................... 1883
CHARTS - GERMANY Ifo Rolls-Over..................................................................................................................................................... 1883
CHARTS - GERMANY 10 Year Bund Below 1% ................................................................................................................................... 1884
CHARTS - GERMANY - Inflation ............................................................................................................................................................... 1884
CHARTS - GERMANY - IFO Investor Confidence .................................................................................................................................... 1885
CHARTS - GERMANY - ZEW Expectations .............................................................................................................................................. 1886
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1888
NEW-RESEARCH - German Finance Minister: Expansive policies may have laid foundation of next crisis........................................... 1888
NEW-RESEARCH - Furious Germans Stage Massive Anti-Islam Protest ............................................................................................... 1888
NEW-RESEARCH - Germany Has Repatriated Over 366 Tonnes Of Gold From New York And Paris .................................................. 1896
RESEARCH - U.S. Will Station New Nuclear Weapons in Germany against Russia ............................................................................... 1903
RESEARCH - Refugee Crises At Dangerous Tipping Point As Hungary Deploys Army, Germany Loses Patience ............................... 1904
RESEARCH - Why Volkswagen Is Systematically Important For Germany And Europe ......................................................................... 1908
RESEARCH - Europe's Woes: The Escalating Cost to Germany ............................................................................................................. 1911
RESEARCH - Bundesbank Blasts Draghi For Breaking Bailout Taboo .................................................................................................... 1914
RESEARCH - Five charts that show Germany is heading into recession 10-19-14 The Guardian.......................................................... 1915
RESEARCH - Draghi signaled additional monetary easing is likely to materialize - Possibly by September .......................................... 1918
RESEARCH - Germany close to recession as ECB admits recovery is weak.......................................................................................... 1920
RESEARCH - Merkel's Third Chancellorship Challenges .................................................................................................................... 1921
RESEARCH - German Election - Merkel Begins Hunt for Coalition Partners........................................................................................... 1925
RESEARCH - Europe's Shadow Economy: As Big As Germany.............................................................................................................. 1926
SITUATIONAL ASSESSEMENT ................................................................................................................................................................... 1930
GERMANY - Anti Euro AfD Party May Cost Merkel in Critical September Election ......................................................................... 1931
GERMANY - The Euro Crisis Escalation over Cyprus May Politically Cripple Merkel ..................................................................... 1932
GERMANY - Call for End of "Coercive Euro Association" ........................................................................................................................ 1934
IBERIAN PENINSULA LEFT BLOC ASCENDING AGAINST PORTUGALS SOCIALISTS ........................................................................... 1936
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 1936
CHARTS - SPAIN Spains Debt-to-GDP ................................................................................................................................................. 1936
CHARTS - SPAIN Spains & Portugals Unemployment Rate June 2015 Seasonally Adjusted ......................................................... 1936
CHARTS - SPAIN Spanish Industrial Production Output +1.0% MM, +2.9% YY ................................................................................... 1936
CHARTS - PORTUGAL Share of Lower Skilled Workers ....................................................................................................................... 1937
CHARTS - PORTUGAL Non-Performing Loans...................................................................................................................................... 1938
CHARTS - SPAIN 30 Year Bond Yield At 2.5% - Historic Low ............................................................................................................... 1939
CHARTS - SPAIN 10 Year Bond Yield At 2.37% - Historic Low ............................................................................................................. 1939
CHARTS - PORTUGAL Yields Hit Low After BES Bailout ..................................................................................................................... 1940
CHARTS - PORTUGAL - Deficit Problem ................................................................................................................................................. 1941
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1942
NEW-RESEARCH - Did Austerity Really Win Out in Portugal? ........................................................................................................... 1942
RESEARCH - Spain's Economic Recovery Is "One Big Lie" ............................................................................................................... 1942
RESEARCH - Jitters over Spanish elections, Greece hit banks, euro ............................................................................................... 1946
RESEARCH - Jitters over Spanish elections, Greece hit banks, euro ............................................................................................... 1949
RESEARCH - Presidential Warning Spikes Yields To 8 Months Highs .............................................................................................. 1953
RESEARCH - Clear Signs of Desperation In Spain from a Growing Collateral Contagion .............................................................. 1955
RESEARCH - The Spanish Government's 'Bad Bank' Scam .............................................................................................................. 1956
SITUATIONAL ASSESSEMENT ................................................................................................................................................................... 1958
IBERIA - Credit Downgrades - At Precipice of "Non Investment Grade" .................................................................................................. 1958
IBERIA - Regional Bailout Bailouts a Massive Problem ...................................................................................................................... 1959
IBERIA - NPL Going Ballistic .................................................................................................................................................................. 1960
IBERIA - Spanish Funding Problem ....................................................................................................................................................... 1961
IBERIA - The Giant Spanish Housing Bubble, Now Beginning to Implode ............................................................................................... 1966
IBERIA - Mal-Investment Coming Home to Roost..................................................................................................................................... 1968
IBERIA - Now a Capital Investment Problem ............................................................................................................................................ 1971
IBERIA - Banks on Artificial "Ponzi Bond" Life Support ............................................................................................................................ 1972
CHINA: CAPITAL OUTFLOWS, FALLING FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT & NOW US TREASURY SALES ................... 1981
CHINA .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1981
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1981
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Hot Money Flows ............................................................................................................................................. 1981
NEW-CHARTS Capital Outflows and Falling Foreign Direct Investment ............................................................................................... 1982
NEW-CHARTS Exchange Rates & Foreign Exchange Reserves .......................................................................................................... 1982
NEW-CHARTS China & Belgium Treasury Holdings v-China FX Reserves ....................................................................................... 1983
NEW-CHARTS Belgiums US Treasury Holdings .................................................................................................................................. 1983
NEW-CHARTS China Containerized Freight Index ............................................................................................................................... 1984
NEW-CHARTS China Fiscal Spending Y-o-Y Increase ......................................................................................................................... 1984
NEW-CHARTS GDP Growth Steady At 6.9% in Q3 2015 ..................................................................................................................... 1985
NEW-CHARTS Debt Fueled But Not Much Growth ............................................................................................................................... 1985
NEW-CHARTS Emerging Market CAPEX A Dominate Part of their Economies ................................................................................... 2215
NEW-CHARTS Estimated Assets in Sovereign Wealth Funds versus Oil & Gas Related -1 ................................................................ 2216
NEW-CHARTS Emerging Market CAPEX A Dominate Part of their Economies-2 ............................................................................... 2216
NEW-CHARTS Emerging Market Collapse Accelerated in May When Global Market Peaked ............................................................ 2217
NEW-CHARTS Emerging Market USD Corporate Bond Maturities ....................................................................................................... 2218
CHARTS MSCI EM FX Index - New 6 Year Lows ................................................................................................................................ 2218
CHARTS EM FX Loses Since FOMC Meeting Brazil Noticeably Worse ............................................................................................ 2219
CHARTS EM FX Debasement By Country Since FOMC ....................................................................................................................... 2220
CHARTS EM FX Debasement By Country Since 9/7/09 ....................................................................................................................... 2220
CHARTS Brazilians Scramble to Protect their Store of Value (Coming to Other Countries) ................................................................. 2220
CHARTS Brazil Real GDP Y-o-Y% ........................................................................................................................................................ 2221
CHARTS Brazil Real / US$ versus Brazil 5Y CDS ................................................................................................................................ 2222
CHARTS Brazil Change in Yields Compared to Turkey and Mexico .................................................................................................. 2223
CHARTS Brazil Sovereign Gross Debt/GDP Government versus BI Simulation ............................................................................ 2223
CHARTS Brazil Number of days to start a business Worst in the Major Countries! ........................................................................ 2224
CHARTS Brazil Real Reaches Record Low as Budget Pessimism Rises .......................................................................................... 2224
CHARTS 5Y CDS Spreads Brazil, Russia, Turkey, Indonesia, Colombia & Peru .............................................................................. 2225
CHARTS AFRICA-Chinese Investment Offers in Africa Since 2000 ..................................................................................................... 2225
CHARTS AFRICA-Foreign Direct Investment & Trade .......................................................................................................................... 2226
CHARTS AFRICA-Geographic Comparisons ......................................................................................................................................... 2227
CHARTS Emerging Markets Corporate Defaults ................................................................................................................................... 2227
CHARTS Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index ......................................................................................................................... 2228
CHARTS Emerging Markets Currency Change versus USD ................................................................................................................. 2228
CHARTS Emerging Markets Change in Nominal Policy Rate ............................................................................................................... 2229
CHARTS EM Vulnerability to an external shock Resilience Indicator .............................................................................................. 2230
CHARTS EM Vulnerability to an external shock Resilience Indicator Change Since 2008 Crisis ................................................... 2231
CHARTS Falling EM Currencies ............................................................................................................................................................. 2232
CHARTS Post-China 16 ......................................................................................................................................................................... 2233
CHARTS Economies Now Need More Debt to Generate Growth ......................................................................................................... 2234
CHARTS Emerging Markets Benchmark Underperforms US Index ...................................................................................................... 2234
CHARTS - Reserves versus World ............................................................................................................................................................ 2234
CHARTS - Current Account Balances versus GDP .................................................................................................................................. 2236
CHARTS - Emerging Markets Index versus MSCI World Index ............................................................................................................... 2237
CHARTS - SINGAPORE - Inflation ............................................................................................................................................................ 2238
CHARTS - SINGAPORE - Exports ............................................................................................................................................................ 2239
CHARTS - SOUTH KOREA ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2240
CHARTS - TURKEY - Spreads .................................................................................................................................................................. 2241
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2242
EMERGING MARKETS - Why Asian Markets Are Collapsing .............................................................................................................. 2242
EMERGING MARKETS - History Suggests Asia Can Handle Fed Tightening ................................................................................... 2244
EMERGING MARKETS - Here's Which Emerging Markets Are Most Vulnerable To "External Shock" .......................................... 2246
EMERGING MARKETS - North Korea: Chinese Outsourcing Giant ................................................................................................... 2248
EMERGING MARKETS - Forced Changes & Advancements in the Normal "Plundering" Strategy ............................................... 2250
EMERGING MARKETS - Crisis Temporarily Halted.............................................................................................................................. 2252
EMERGING MARKETS - The plight of four Asian countries - China, India, Indonesia and Japan. ................................................. 2252
EMERGING MARKETS - Negative Current Accounts + Weak(ening) International Investment Positioning ........................................... 2258
EMERGING MARKETS - "TAPER" Shock Waves Across Asia ........................................................................................................... 2258
EMERGING MARKETS - Global Bond Yields React Together ............................................................................................................. 2260
EMERGING MARKETS - A Bumpy Ride for Emerging Markets ............................................................................................................... 2262
EMERGING MARKETS - Stunning Withdrawals.................................................................................................................................... 2268
EMERGING MARKETS - Bond Outflows Accelerating ......................................................................................................................... 2269
EMERGING MARKETS - This will make the 1997 Asian Crisis Seem Like an Early Warning .......................................................... 2271
EMERGING MARKETS - Developing Nations Feeling the Pain of Global Deleveraging Acceleration ........................................... 2273
EMERGING MARKETS - The Impact of "TAPER" ................................................................................................................................. 2276
SITUATIONAL ASSESSEMENT ................................................................................................................................................................... 2280
EMERGING MARKETS - What you Need to Know ...................................................................................................................................... 2280
EMERGING MARKETS - Comparative Ease of Doing Business........................................................................................................... 2282
EMERGING MARKETS - Importance of Employment, Equality and Per Capital Income ................................................................. 2283
ASEAN ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2286
ASEAN: A New Common Market .............................................................................................................................................................. 2286
ASIA ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2290
ASIA: CHARTS Entering More Adverse Part of the Credit Cycle .......................................................................................................... 2290
ASIA: CHARTS Real GDP Slowing, Real Funding Costs Are Rising .................................................................................................... 2291
ASIA: CHARTS Demographic Peaks of Working Age Populations ....................................................................................................... 2292
ASIA: CHARTS Impact of Demographic Change on Annual GDP Growth............................................................................................ 2293
ASIA: CHARTS Worlds 50 Busiest Container-Shipping Seaports ........................................................................................................ 2294
ASIA: CHARTS - REVENUE ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2295
ASIA: CHARTS EXPENDITURES .......................................................................................................................................................... 2295
ASIA: CHARTS SPENDING GAPS ........................................................................................................................................................ 2297
ASIA: CHARTS DEBT SERVICE ........................................................................................................................................................... 2297
ASIA: CHARTS - SINGAPORE ................................................................................................................................................................. 2299
ASIA: CHARTS INDONESIA CPI May 2014 .................................................................................................................................... 2300
ASIA: CHARTS INDONESIA CPI Aug 2013 .................................................................................................................................... 2300
ASIA: CHARTS A Short Term Dead Cat Bounce? .......................................................................................................................... 2301
ASIA: CHARTS Inflation Problems Abound ........................................................................................................................................ 2302
ASIA: CHARTS Healthier Public Debt and Borrowing Positions than DM ...................................................................................... 2302
ASIA: CHARTS - AUSTRALIA ................................................................................................................................................................... 2303
RUSSIA Falling Oil Price Weighs on Economy and the Ruble .............................................................................................................. 2405
RUSSIA Russian Ruble versus Reserves .............................................................................................................................................. 2406
RUSSIA Russian Breakeven Oil Prices versus Liquids Production ....................................................................................................... 2407
RUSSIA Russian Refining & Upstream Economics-1 ............................................................................................................................ 2408
RUSSIA Russian Refining & Upstream Economics-2 ............................................................................................................................ 2409
RUSSIA Russian Holdings of US Treasuries ......................................................................................................................................... 2410
RUSSIA Russian 9 Year Gold Buying Spree ......................................................................................................................................... 2411
RUSSIA Net YTD Gold Purchases by the Central Bank of Russia ........................................................................................................ 2411
RUSSIAN RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED THIS TRI-SEMESTER ............................................................................................................ 2413
RUSSIA Russia signs up to $100 bn BRICS fund to rival IMF ............................................................................................................... 2413
INDIA.............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 2414
NEW-INDIA India Imports- Exports Y-o-Y .............................................................................................................................................. 2414
INDIA CAPEX Bottom Out? .................................................................................................................................................................... 2415
INDIA Real GDP and Car Sales ............................................................................................................................................................. 2416
INDIA Inflation ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 2417
INDIA - Inflation .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 2418
INDIA - WPI ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 2419
INDIA - Will be fine as long as it continues to reduce its deficit. ............................................................................................................... 2420
INDIA - Panic in India ................................................................................................................................................................................. 2421
INDIA - India Rupee Collapse Showing Signs of Exhaustion ............................................................................................................. 2423
INDIA - Watch Out For RE-Emergence of Food Price Inflation ........................................................................................................... 2424
SOUTH AFRICA ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 2426
NEW-CONSUMPTION This Is What Americans Spent Most Money On In 2015 Spoiler Alert: Obamacare ..................................... 2543
BUSINESS CYCLE - GROWTH .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2544
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2544
CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2548
NEW-CHARTS Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP Forecast Tumbles to 1.4% .......................................................................................................... 2548
NEW-CHARTS Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP Forecast Trend is steadily down ................................................................................................. 2549
NEW-CHARTS Durable Goods Orders Ex-Transports Y-o-Y ................................................................................................................ 2549
NEW-CHARTS Markit PMI Both Services and Manufacturing falling Since June 2014 ..................................................................... 2550
NEW-CHARTS Markit Composite PMI and US GDP ............................................................................................................................. 2550
NEW-CHARTS US Economic Growth in 2015 Was in Healthcare Consumption .................................................................................. 2551
CHARTS Strong Dollar, High Inventories to Slow US Factory Output ................................................................................................... 2552
CHARTS US ISMs 3 Mo MA................................................................................................................................................................... 2552
CHARTS September Survey Data versus Non Farm Payrolls ............................................................................................................... 2553
CHARTS Regional Surveys for September versus ISM PMI (August) .................................................................................................. 2554
CHARTS Regional Manufacturing Surveys versus Forward EPS Estimates ........................................................................................ 2555
CHARTS Historical Regional Index Comparisons Last Seen in 2008 ................................................................................................ 2555
CHARTS Predicted US Quarterly GDP Grow Q-o-Q Annualized ....................................................................................................... 2556
CHARTS Predicted US Annual Growth % Through 2024 ...................................................................................................................... 2556
CHARTS Predicted US Growth Compared to UK and Eurozone .......................................................................................................... 2557
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2558
NEW-GROWTH Core Durable Goods Tumble For 13th Month, Longest Non-Recessionary Stretch In 70 Years ............................... 2558
NEW-GROWTH PMI Services Signals "Softest Expansion of New Business Since 2009 .................................................................... 2560
NEW-GROWTH Healthcare Is About To Surpass Housing As The Biggest Source Of American "Growth" ............................... 2562
NEW-GROWTH X .................................................................................................................................................................................... 2564
NEW-GROWTH X .................................................................................................................................................................................... 2564
ECONOMIC CYCLE, INVESTMENT CYCLE, SECTOR ROTATION ................................................................................................................. 2565
MONETARY POLICY GLOBAL SLOW DOWN FORCES FED TO HOLD ON RATE INCREASE ......................................................... 2590
CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................... 2590
NEW-CHARTS: US Monetary Base Growth versus S&P 500 ...................................................................................................................... 2591
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- US Dollar Index ................................................................................................................................................ 2591
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- S&P 500 ........................................................................................................................................................... 2592
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- S&P 500 PE Ratio ............................................................................................................................................ 2592
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- MSCI World Index ............................................................................................................................................ 2593
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- HYG .................................................................................................................................................................. 2594
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- LQD .................................................................................................................................................................. 2595
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- LQD .................................................................................................................................................................. 2595
NEW-CHARTS: Feds US PCE Y-o-Y ........................................................................................................................................................... 2596
NEW-CHARTS: US Industrial Production ..................................................................................................................................................... 2596
NEW-CHARTS: US Industrial Production ..................................................................................................................................................... 2597
NEW-CHARTS: US Durable Goods New Orders ......................................................................................................................................... 2597
CHARTS: US Monetary Velocity Declines as Excess Leverage Weighs on Consumption .......................................................................... 2598
CHARTS: Velocity of Money Shows Transmission System Broken ............................................................................................................. 2598
CHARTS: Interest Rates Reflect Economic Growth & Inflation .................................................................................................................... 2599
CHARTS: Fed Balance Sheet Change versus S&P 500 .............................................................................................................................. 2599
CHARTS: Fed Policy Initiatives versus S&P 500 Actions ............................................................................................................................. 2600
CHARTS: Total US Credit Old versus New Series .................................................................................................................................... 2600
CHARTS: Banks Treasuries Stash Boosts Case for Fed Delay .................................................................................................................. 2601
CHARTS: US Treasuries Purchased by Domestic Mutual Funds ................................................................................................................ 2601
CHARTS: Total Debt and Loans versus US GDP ......................................................................................................................................... 2602
CHARTS: Credit Markets Instruments All Sectors- Liability Levels ........................................................................................................... 2602
CORE CHARTS ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2603
QUANTITATIVE EASING .............................................................................................................................................................................. 2603
NEW-CORE: QE Stages versus US Treasury Market .............................................................................................................................. 2603
NEW-CORE: QE Stages versus US Equity Market................................................................................................................................... 2603
NEW-CORE: QE Correlation with US Equity Market ................................................................................................................................ 2604
NEW-CORE: US Monetary Base Growth Correlation with US Equity Market .......................................................................................... 2604
NEW-CORE: QE Correlation with Global Growth Barometer & S&P 500 ................................................................................................ 2605
NEW-CORE: Expect Exponential Growth in the Fed Balance Sheet ....................................................................................................... 2605
NEW-CORE: Total Assets Held by the Federal Reserve .......................................................................................................................... 2607
NEW-CORE: Exponential Growth in US Credit a Requirement ................................................................................................................ 2607
RESEARCH OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 2608
NEW-RESEARCH BEN BERNANKE: What tools does the Fed have left? Part 1: Negative interest rates ............................................. 2608
NEW-RESEARCH BEN BERNANKE: What tools does the Fed have left? Part 2: Targeting longer-term interest rates ........................ 2614
NEW-RESERCH Why Lower Gasoline Prices Are Not Stimulating The Economy ................................................................................... 2617
FISCAL POLICY RECIPE FOR COLLAPSE: RISING MILITARY & SOCIAL WELFARE SPENDING ................................................... 2619
FEDERAL DEBT HOLDINGS & FINANCING...................................................................................................................................................... 2621
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2621
FINANCING The Debt Ceiling Debt Limit is Likely to Fall in November ..................................................................................................... 2621
FINANCING CHINA SELLING The Mysterious Belgium Treasury Holder Has Started Selling .............................................................. 2621
FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings v China Forex Reserves-1 ........................................................................... 2622
FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings v China Forex Reserves-2 ........................................................................... 2622
FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings Change ........................................................................................................ 2623
FINANCING Breakdown of US Debt Holdings as of 2014 .......................................................................................................................... 2623
CHARTS US Federal Government Debt to GDP ....................................................................................................................................... 2624
CHARTS Drivers of US Debt ...................................................................................................................................................................... 2625
CHARTS Total Government Expenditures versus Real GDP .................................................................................................................... 2626
CHARTS US Debt About to Pass $18T and 102% of GDP ....................................................................................................................... 2626
CHARTS US Non-Financial Debt-to-GDP Since 1952 .............................................................................................................................. 2627
FEDERAL BUDGET SPENDING ......................................................................................................................................................................... 2628
NEW-CHARTS Where Did Every Dollar in Spending Go? ........................................................................................................................ 2628
CHARTS Mandatory versus Discretionary Spending ................................................................................................................................. 2628
CHARTS Interest Costs to Dwarf Virtually Every Federal Expense .......................................................................................................... 2629
CHARTS Looming Increases in Baby-Boomer Driven Deficits .................................................................................................................. 2630
CHARTS Federal GAAP Based Deficit Growth & Federal Obligations Growth ......................................................................................... 2630
CHARTS - US Government Budget Surplus / Deficit .................................................................................................................................... 2631
CHARTS - Government Receipts & Outlay Growth Improves Significantly .................................................................................................. 2631
CHARTS - Federal Budget Surplus / Deficit .................................................................................................................................................. 2632
CHARTS - Real Federal Government Purchases ......................................................................................................................................... 2632
FEDERAL BUDGET - What You Need to Know ................................................................................................................................................. 2634
BUDGET - President Obama's Entire Budget In One Chart .................................................................................................................... 2635
BUDGET - A Budget That Institutionalizes Big Government .................................................................................................................. 2636
BUDGET - Budget Deficit Shrinking and Shrinking Infrastructure Spending ................................................................................................ 2641
RESEARCH - CROMNIBUS - The Real Reason Why It Needed to be Passed .......................................................................................... 2642
RESEARCH - $89.5 trillion in liabilities ......................................................................................................................................................... 2644
RESEARCH - The Federal Government is "cooking the books"! ................................................................................................................. 2648
RESEARCH NIA 2015 U.S. Debt Crisis Report ......................................................................................................................................... 2653
STATE & LOCAL BUDGETS ............................................................................................................................................................................... 2663
NEW-CHARTS Connecticut Bond Yield Spreads Over AAA Munis .......................................................................................................... 2663
CHARTS State & Local Tax Revenues ...................................................................................................................................................... 2663
NEW-RESEARCH - Countdown To Insolvency Begins For Chicago Pensions As State Supreme Court Rejects Reform Bid ...... 2664
NEW-RESEARCH - Connecticut Credit Risk Spikes to Record High ..................................................................................................... 2666
RESEARCH - Almost Half of US States Are Officially Broke .................................................................................................................. 2668
RESEARCH - State & Local Government Crisis ....................................................................................................................................... 2672
RESEARCH - State & Local Government Drag ............................................................................................................................................ 2678
UNFUNDED LIABILITIES .................................................................................................................................................................................... 2683
NEW-Charts Revenues Completely Consumed By Major Entitlements & Interest by 2025 ..................................................................... 2683
NEW-Charts In FY 2014 Medicaid Accounted for 8% of Federal Outlays ................................................................................................. 2683
NEW-Charts Medicare Spending is a Growing Share of the Federal Budget ........................................................................................... 2685
RESEARCH Private Pension Fund Levels Fall Behind ............................................................................................................................. 2686
RESEARCH Professor Laurence Kotlikoff on the $210T Fiscal Gap ...................................................................................................... 2690
US REGULATORY COSTS ................................................................................................................................................................................. 2693
CHARTS Annual Cost of Federal Regulation 2012, $1.863T ................................................................................................................. 2693
RESEARCH Investor Uncertainty............................................................................................................................................................... 2693
US TAX POLICY & ISSUES ................................................................................................................................................................................ 2695
NEW-CHARTS Marginal Tax Rates Must Nearly Double to Fund Entitlement Spending ......................................................................... 2695
CHARTS 7 Corporate CEOs Paid More Than Corporation Paid Tax ........................................................................................................ 2696
CHARTS - Americas 100 highest-paid CEOs, 29 received more in pay than company federal income taxes ........................................... 2697
CHARTS Employed Population of America Tax Exposure ..................................................................................................................... 2700
CHARTS US Has the Highest Nominal Corporate Tax Rate in the Industrialized World ....................................................................... 2700
CHARTS How Banks Use Dividend Arbitrage to Reduce Client Tax ...................................................................................................... 2701
RESEARCH - Tax Rate Comparisons ........................................................................................................................................................ 2702
RESEARCH - Payroll Tax Holiday ................................................................................................................................................................ 2702
RESEARCH - Taxes & Spending .................................................................................................................................................................. 2703
RESEARCH - Avoiding Taxes ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2707
MISC CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ................................................................................................................................................................. 2710
NEW-CHARTS Size of US military Spending Dwarfs all others- Spends more than the Next 15 Combined ........................................... 2710
CHARTS Competing Visions of Government ............................................................................................................................................. 2710
Plan
Release
Date
III.
Monday following
4th Saturday
of the Month
IV.
II.
Monday following
2tnd Saturday of the
Month
Tuesday following
3rd Saturday
of the Month
Service
Coverage
Tipping Points
Tipping Points
Abstraction
Global Macro
Abstraction
US Economy
Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis
Market Analytics
Fundamental Analysis
Market Analytics
Risk Analysis
Synthesis
Commentary
Synthesis
Commentary
Thesis
Conclusions
Focus