Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 19

CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T

11

C H A P T E R

Project Management

DISCUSSION QUESTIONS
1.There are many possible answers. Project management is
needed in large construction jobs, in implementing new
informationsystems,innewproductdevelopment/marketing,in
creatinganewassemblyline,andsoon.
2.Projectorganizationsmakesureexistingprogramscontinueto
runsmoothlywhilenewprojectsaresuccessfullycompleted.
3.The three phases involved in managing a large project are
planning,scheduling,andcontrolling.
4.PERTandCPMhelpanswerquestionsrelatingtowhichtask
elementsareon(orlikelytobeon)thecriticalpathandtoproba
ble completion times for the overall project. Some specific
questionsinclude:
Whenwilltheentireprojectbecompleted?
Whicharethecriticalactivitiesortasksintheproject;that
is, the activities that will delay the entire project if
completedbehindschedule?
Whicharethenoncriticalactivities;thatis,thosethatcan
runbehindschedulewithoutdelayingthewholeproject?
Howfarbehindschedulecantheseactivitiesrunwithout
disruptingthecompletiontime?
Whatistheprobabilitythattheprojectwillbecompleted
byaspecificdate?
Atanyparticulardate,istheprojectonschedule,behind
schedule,oraheadofschedule?
Onanygivendate,isthemoneyspentequalto,lessthan,
orgreaterthanthebudgetedamount?
Arethereenoughresourcesavailabletofinishtheproject
ontime?
Iftheprojectisrequiredtobefinishedinashorteramount
oftime,whatistheleastcostwaytoaccomplishthis?
5.WBSisahierarchialsubdivisionofeffortrequiredtoachieve
anobjective.Itdefinesaprojectbybreakingitdownintomanage
ablepartsandevenfinersubdivisions.
6.AGanttchartisavisualdevicethatshowsthedurationof
tasksinaproject.Itisalowcostmeansofensuringthat(1)all
activities are planned for, (2) their order of performance is
plannedfor,(3)theactivitytimesarerecorded,and(4)theoverall
projecttimeisdeveloped.
7.ThedifferencebetweenAOAandAONisthatactivitiesare
shownonarrowsintheformerandonthenodeinthelatter.We
primarilyuseAONinthischapter.

8.Anylatestartorextensionofanactivityonthecriticalpath
willdelaythecompletionoftheproject.
9.Tocrashanactivity,theprojectmanagerwouldpaymoney
toaddresources(overtime,extrahelp).
10.ActivitytimesusedinPERTareassumedtobedescribedby
aBetaprobabilitydistribution.Givenoptimistic(a),pessimistic
(b),andmostlikely(m),completiontimes,averageorexpected
timeisgivenby:
t

a 4m b
6

andthevarianceby:
(b a )
6

Variances

11.Earlystart(ES)ofanactivityisthelatestoftheearlyfinish
timesofallitspredecessors.Earlyfinish(EF)istheearlystartof
anactivityplusitsduration.Latefinish(LF)ofanactivityisthe
earliestofthelatestarttimesofallsuccessoractivities.Latestart
(LS)ofanactivityisitslatefinishlessitsduration.
12.The critical path is the shortest time possible for the
completionofaseriesofactivities,butthatshortesttimeisthe
longest paththroughthenetwork.Onlythelongestpathallows
time

for

all
activitiesintheseries;anysmalleramountwillleaveactivities
unfinished.
13.Dummyactivitieshavenotimeduration.Theyareinserted
intoaAOAnetworktomaintainthelogicofthenetwork,suchas
whentwoactivitieshaveexactlythesamebeginningandending
events.Adummyactivityisinsertedwithoneofthemsothatthe
computersoftwarecanhandletheproblem.
14.Theyare(1)optimistictimeestimate(a),anestimateofthe
minimum time an activity will require; (2) most likely time
estimate (m), an estimate of the normal time an activity will
require;and(3)pessimistictimeestimate(b),anestimateofthe
maximumtimeanactivitywillrequire.
15.No.Innetworks,thereisnopossibilitythatcrashinganon
criticaltaskcanreducetheprojectduration.Onlycriticaltasks
offer the possibility of reducing path length. However, other
criteriaforcrashingmayexist:forinstance,skillsrequiredinone
oftheactivitiesmayalsobeneededelsewhere.
16.TotalPERTprojectvarianceiscomputedasthesumofthe
variancesofallactivitiesonthecriticalpath.

Copyright2011PearsonEducation,Inc.publishingasPrenticeHall.

12

CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T

17.Slack:theamountoftimeanactivitycanbedelayedandnot
affecttheoverallcompletiontimeofthewholeproject.Slackcan
bedeterminedbyfindingthedifferencebetweentheearlieststart
timeandthelateststarttime,ortheearliestfinishtimeandthelat
estfinishtimeforagivenactivity.
18.Ifthereareasufficientnumberoftasksalongthecritical
path,wecanassumethatprojectcompletiontimeisdescribedbya
normalprobabilitydistributionwithmeanequaltothesumofthe
expectedtimesofallactivitiesonthecriticalpathandvariance
equaltothesumofthevariancesofallactivitiesonthecritical
path.
Thefundamentalassumptionrequiredisthatthenumberof
activitiesonthecriticalpathislargeenoughthatthemeanofthe
sumoftheBetadistributionsisdistributedapproximatelyasthe
normaldistribution.
19.Widely used project management software include
TimeLine,MSProject,MacProject,Primavera,andPERTmaster.

ETHICAL DILEMMA
Large projects with time/cost overruns are not uncommon
situations in the world of project management. Why do MIS
projectscommonlysport200300%costoverrunsandcompletion
timestwicethatprojected?Whydomassiveconstructionprojects
runsolateandsooverbudget?
Studentsareexpectedtoreadaboutsuchprojectsandcome
upwithexplanations,especiallyrelatedtoethics.Inthecaseof
MIS projects, long software development tasks are almost
doomedtofailurebecauseofthechangesintechnologyandstaff
thattakeplace.Itsanecessitytobreaklargeprojectsdowninto
smaller3to 6monthmodulesorpiecesthatareselfcontained.
Thisprotectstheorganizationfromatotallossshouldthemassive
projectneverbecompleted.

In every case, quality project management means open


communication, realistic timetables, good staff, and use of
software like MSProject to build and maintain a schedule.
Biddingonacontractwithaschedulethatisnotfeasiblemaybe
unethicalaswellaspoorbusiness.

Active Model Exercise*


ACTIVEMODEL3.1:GanttChart
1.BothAandHarecriticalactivities.Describethedifference
betweenwhathappensonthegraphwhenyouincreaseAvs.
increasingH.
WhenyouincreaseH,itistheonlytasktochangeonthe
chart.However,whenyouincreaseAthenallcriticaltasks
move to the right and the slack for the noncritical tasks
increases.
2.Activity F is not critical. By how many weeks can you
increaseactivityFuntilitbecomescritical?
6weeks
3.Activity B is not critical. By how many weeks can you
increaseactivityBuntilitbecomescritical?Whathappenswhen
Bbecomescritical?
1week.ActivityDalsobecomescritical.
4.WhathappenswhenyouincreaseBby1moreweekafterit
becomescritical?
ActivitiesA,C,andEbecomenoncritical,andtheproject
takes1additionalweek.
5.Suppose that building codes may change and, as a result,
activityBwouldhavetobecompletedbeforeactivityCcouldbe
started.Howwouldthisaffecttheproject?
Activity B becomes critical, and the project takes 1
additionalweek.

*ActiveModel3.1appearsonourWebsites
atwww.pearsonhighered.com/heizerandwww.myomlab.com.
Copyright2011PearsonEducation,Inc.publishingasPrenticeHall.

CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T

13

END-OF-CHAPTER PROBLEMS
3.1SomepossibleLevel3[(a)]andLevel4[(b)]activitiesforthehouseappearforeachLevel2activitybelow.

Copyright2011PearsonEducation,Inc.publishingasPrenticeHall.

14

CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T

3.2HerearesomedetailedactivitiestoaddtoMeffordsWBS:*
1.11 Setinitialgoalsforfundraising
1.12 Setstrategyincludingidentifyingsourcesand
solicitation
1.13 Raisethefunds
1.21 Identifyvotersconcerns
1.22 Analyzecompetitorsvotingrecord
CriticalpathisACFGI.Time=21days.
ThisisanAOAnetwork.

1.23 Establishpositionsonissues
1.31 Hirecampaignmanagerandpoliticaladvisor
1.32 Getvolunteers

(b)CriticalpathisBDEG

1.33 Hireastaff
1.34 Hiremediaconsultants
1.41 Identifyfilingdeadlines
1.42 Fileforcandidacy

(b,c)Therearefourpaths:

1.51 Trainstaffforauditplanning
Studentscouldmakemanyotherchoices.
*Source:ModifiedfromanexamplefoundinM.HannaandW.Newman,
OperationsManagement:PrenticeHall,UpperSaddleRiver,
NJ(2001):p.722.

3.3

3.4

Path

Time
(hours)

ACEG
BDFG
ACDFG
BEG

19.5
24.9
28.7 (critical)
15.7

CriticalpathisACFH.Time=21days.
ThisisanAONnetwork.

3.6 (a)
Activity Time

ES

EF

LS

LF

A
B
C
D
E
F
G

0
0
0
5
15
1
18

2
5
1
15
18
7
26

13
0
11
5
15
12
18

15
5
12
15
18
18
26

3.7 (a)

2
5
1
10
3
6
8

Slack Critical
13
0
11
0
0
11
0

No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes

3.8
3.9(a)AONnetwork:
(b)AOAnetwork:
3.10

3.5The paths through this network are JLO, JMP,


JMNO,KP,andKNO.Theirpathdurationsare23, 18,22,
13,and17.JLOisthecriticalpath;itsdurationis23.

Note:ActivitytimesareshownasanaidforProblem3.11.Theyarenot
requiredinthesolutionto3.10.

Copyright2011PearsonEducation,Inc.publishingasPrenticeHall.

CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T

3.11

15

(b,c)

Activity

Time

ES

EF

LS

LF

6
7
3
2
4
6
10
7

0
0
6
6
7
7
11
13

6
7
9
8
11
13
21
20

2
0
8
12
7
8
11
14

8
7
11
14
11
14
21
21

A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H

Slack Critical
2
0
2
6
0
1
0
1

No
Yes
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
No

ThecriticalpathisgivenforactivitiesB,E,G.
Totalprojectcompletiontimeis21weeks.
3.12(a)

Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K

Time
5.83
3.67
2.00
7.00
4.00
10.00
2.17
6.00
11.00
16.33
7.33

ES
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
9.00
13.00
13.00
23.00
15.17
2.00
29.00

EF
5.83
3.67
2.00
9.00
13.00
23.00
15.17
29.00
26.17
18.33
36.33

LS
7.17
5.33
0.00
2.00
9.00
13.00
15.83
23.00
18.00
20.00
29.00

LF Slack Critical
13.00 7.17
No
9.00 5.33
No
2.00 0.00
Yes
9.00 0.00
Yes
13.00 0.00
Yes
23.00 0.00
Yes
18.00 2.83
No
29.00 0.00
Yes
29.00 2.83
No
36.33 18.00
No
36.33 0.00
Yes

ThecriticalpathisgivenbyactivitiesC,D,E,F,H,K.Average
projectcompletiontimeis36.33days.

(b,c)
Task
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I

Time

ES

EF

LS

LF

Slack

9
7
3
6
9
4
6
5
3

0
9
9
16
16
12
25
22
31

9
16
12
22
25
16
31
27
34

0
9
18
20
16
21
25
26
31

9
16
21
26
25
25
31
31
34

0
0
9
4
0
9
0
4
0

(d)Expected completion time for the project is 36.33


days. Project variance Sum of variances of
activitiesoncriticalpath0.110.110.441.78
1.001.78=5.22.Standarddeviation=2.28
40 36.33

P t 40 P z
P z 1.61 0.946
2.28

3.15(a)AONdiagramoftheproject:

Activitiesonthecriticalpath:A,B,E,G,I
Projectcompletiontime34
3.13
Activity

A
B
C
D
E
F

11
27
18
8
17
16

15
31
18
13
18
19

19
41
18
19
20
22

t=

a +4m + b
6
15
32
18
13.17
18.17
19

b a
Varianc
6
e
1.33
2.33
0
1.83
0.5
1

3.14(a)
Activity

A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K

3
2
1
6
2
6
1
3
10
14
2

6
4
2
7
4
10
2
6
11
16
8

8
4
3
8
6
14
4
9
12
20
10

Expected Variance
5.83
3.67
2.00
7.00
4.00
10.00
2.17
6.00
11.00
16.33
7.33

0.69
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.44
1.78
0.25
1.00
0.11
1.00
1.78

(b)The critical path, listing all critical activities in


chronologicalorder:
A B E F1+ 1 + 2 + 2 = 6( notCP )
A C F1 + 4 + 2 = 7.ThisistheCP.
(c)Theprojectduration(inweeks):
7(ThisisthelengthofCP.)
(d)Theslack(inweeks)associatedwithanyandallnon
criticalpathsthroughtheproject: Lookatthepaths
thatarentcriticalonly1heresofromabove:
A B E F7 6 = 1 weekslack.
3.16HelpstomodifytheAONwiththelowestcoststocrash:
1. CP is A C F; C ischeapesttocrash,sotakeitto
3wksat$200(and$200<$250)

Copyright2011PearsonEducation,Inc.publishingasPrenticeHall.

16

CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T

2.Nowbothpathsthrougharecritical.Wewouldneedto
shortenAorF,orshortenCandeitherB/E.Thisisnot
worthit,sowewouldnotbothertocrashanyfurther.

3.17

(a)Estimated(expected)timeforC[8(412)16]/6
72/6
12weeks
(16 8)
6

(b)VarianceforCis

16
1.78
9

(c)CriticalpathisACFHJK
(d)Timeoncriticalpath7.67129.6726.67
2.1740.18weeks(rounded)
(e)Varianceoncriticalpath11.785.4401.78
0.0310.03
36 40.18
(f)Z =
= 1.32, whichisabout9.6%chance
3.17
(.096probability)ofcompletingprojectbeforeweek36.
Note that based on possible rounding in part (d)
where time on critical path could be 40.3the
probabilitycanbeaslowas8.7%.Soastudentanswer
between8.7%and9.6%isvalid.

Copyright2011PearsonEducation,Inc.publishingasPrenticeHall.

CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T

17

Summarytableforproblem3.17follows:
Activity

Activity Early
Time
Start

Early
Finish

Late Start

Late
Finish

Slack

Standard
Deviatio
n

A
B

7.66
9.66

0
7.66

7.66
17.33

0.0
8

7.66
17.66

0
0.33

1
3.66

C
D

12
6.33

7.66
7.66

19.66
14

7.66
25

19.66
31.33

0
17.33

1.33
1

E
F

2
9.66

17.33
19.66

19.33
29.33

17.66
19.66

19.66
29.33

0.33
0

0.33
2.33

G
H
I
J
K

3
2
6
6.66
2.16

19.66
29.33
29.33
31.33
38

22.66
31.33
35.33
38
40.17

28.33
29.33
32
31.33
38

31.33
31.33
38
38
40.17

8.66
0
2.66
0
0

0.33
0
0
1.33
0.17

3.18

FigureforProblem3.20

CriticalpathCEat12days.
Activity
A
B
C
D
E

Daily Crash Costs


$100
50
100
150
200

Maximum Crash
1
2
1
2
3

3.19Crashcostsperunittimeare$600forA,$900forB,and
$1,000 for C. (a) A offers the cheapest path to a single day
reduction.(b)Acannotsupplyasecondreduction,sothenext
bestchoiceisB,whichadds$900.(c)Thetotalforbothdaysis
$1,500.
3.20(a)Projectcompletiontime16(ActivitiesADG)

A
B
C
D
E
F
G

Crash $Normal
$

1
1
0
4
3
1
2

$600
600
0
300
300
1,200
600

(b)Totalcost$12,300.
(c)CrashD1weekatanadditionalcostof$75.

$/time
$600
600

75
100
1,200
300

Crash

D
G
A
E

Cost

4
2
1
1
7 weeks

3.21(a) Activit

CrashCby1day($100)to11daystotal
NowcrashEby1day($200)andAby1day($100)to10days
total.
NowcrashEby2days($400)andDby2days($300)to8days
total.
Totaladditionalcosttocrash4days$1,100.

Norm. Time
Crash Time

Activity

day
days
day
days
days

Tocrashby4days,from12daysto8days:

Activit
y

(d)

$300
600
600
100
$1,600

te

9
4
9
5

10
10
10
8

11
16
11
11

10
10
10
8

A
B
C
D

Varianc
e
0.11
4
0.11
1

(b)CriticalpathisA C withmean(te)completiontimeof
20weeks.TheotherpathisBD,withmean
completiontimeof18weeks.
(c)VarianceofA C (VarianceofA)(VarianceofC)
0.110.110.22
VarianceofBD(VarianceofB)+(VarianceofD)
415
(d)ProbabilityACisfinishedin22weeksorless
22 20

P Z
P ( Z 4.26) 1.00
0.22

(e)ProbabilityBDisfinishedin22weeksorless
22 18

P Z
P ( Z 1.79) 0.963

5
(f)Thecriticalpathhasarelativelysmallvarianceandwillalmost
certainlybefinishedin22weeksorless.PathBDhasa
relativelyhighvariance.Duetothis,theprobabilityBDis
finishedin22weeksorlessisonlyabout0.96.Sincetheproject
isnotfinisheduntilallactivities(andpaths)arefinished,the

Copyright2011PearsonEducation,Inc.publishingasPrenticeHall.

18

CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T

probabilitythattheprojectwillbefinishedin22weeksorlessis
not1.00butisapproximately0.96.

3.22(a)
Activity

A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N

4
1
6
5
1
2
1
4
1
2
8
2
1
6

6
2
6
8
9
3
7
4
6
5
9
4
2
8

7
3
6
11
18
6
8
6
8
7
11
6
3
10

Activit Time
y
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N

5.83
2.00
6.00
8.00
9.17
3.33
6.17
4.33
5.50
4.83
9.17
4.00
2.00
8.00

Expected Time Variance


5.83
2.00
6.00
8.00
9.17
3.33
6.17
4.33
5.50
4.83
9.17
4.00
2.00
8.00

ES

EF

LS

LF

0.00
0.00
5.83
5.83
11.83
13.83
13.83
21.00
25.33
30.83
30.83
35.66
40.00
42.00

5.83
2.00
11.83
13.83
21.00
17.16
20.00
25.33
30.83
35.66
40.00
39.66
42.00
50.00

0.00
9.83
5.83
9.67
11.83
17.67
19.16
21.00
25.33
33.17
30.83
38.00
40.00
42.00

5.83
11.83
11.83
17.67
21.00
21.00
25.33
25.33
30.83
38.00
40.00
42.00
42.00
50.00

0.25*
0.11
0.00*
1.00
8.03*
0.44
1.36
0.11*
1.36*
0.69
0.25*
0.44
0.11*
0.44*
Slack Critical
0.00
9.83
0.00
3.84
0.00
3.84
5.33
0.00
0.00
2.34
0.00
2.34
0.00
0.00

Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes

ThecriticalpathisgivenbyactivitiesA,C,E,H,I,K,M,N.
Completiontimeis50days.
(b)P(Completionin53days).Variancesoncriticalpath
=10.55so,cp=3.25.
53 50

P t 53 P z
P z 0.92 0.821 82.1%
3.25

(c)

x 50

3.25

wherez = 2.33for99%probability.
x 50
so 2.33=
.Then
3.25
x = 50 + (2.33)(3.25) = 57.57 @58days
P z

3.23
(a)Thisprojectmanagementproblemcanbesolvedusing
PERT.Theresultsarebelow.Asyoucansee,thetotalproject
completiontimeisabout32weeks.Thecriticalpathconsistsof
activitiesC,H,M,andO.
Projectcompletiontime32.05
13 10

Variance(C)

9 5
6

Variance(H)

16
36

Copyright2011PearsonEducation,Inc.publishingasPrenticeHall.

9
36

CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T

6.5 5

Variance(M)

8 5
6

Variance(O)

2.25
36

9
36

N
O
P

1.23
6.83
7

19

11.83
25.22
13.06

13.06
32.05
20.06

Projectvariance= 9 + 16 + 2.25 + 9 1.00


36 36 36 36
Projectstandarddeviation1.00
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P

Activity Early Early


Time
Start Finish
2.16
3.5
11.83
5.16
3.83
7
3.92
7.47
10.32
3.83
4
4
5.92
1.23
6.83
7

0
0
0
0
0
2.17
3.5
11.83
11.83
11.83
5.16
3.83
19.3
15.66
25.22
16.9

Late
Late
Start Finish Slack

2.16 10.13
3.5
11.88
11.83 0
5.16 14.65
3.83 15.98
9.16 12.3
7.42 15.38
19.3
11.83
22.15 14.9
15.66 19.98
9.16 19.82
7.83 19.82
25.22 19.3
16.9
23.82
32.05 25.22
23.9
25.05

12.3
15.38
11.83
19.82
19.82
19.3
19.3
19.3
25.22
23.82
23.82
23.82
25.22
22.05
32.05
32.05

10.13
11.88
0
14.65
15.98
10.13
11.88
0
3.06
8.15
14.65
15.98
0
8.15
0
8.15

(b) Ascanbeseeninthefollowinganalysis,thechangesdo
nothaveanyimpactonthecriticalpathorthetotalproject
completiontime.Asummaryoftheanalysisisbelow.
Projectcompletiontime32.05
Projectstandarddeviation1.00
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M

Activity Early
Time
Start
2.16
3.5
11.83
5.16
3.83
7
3.92
7.46
0
0
4
4
5.92

0
0
0
0
0
2.16
3.5
11.83
11.83
11.83
5.16
3.83
19.3

Early
Finish

Late Late
Start Finish Slack

2.16
3.5
11.83
5.16
3.83
9.16
7.42
19.3
11.83
11.83
9.16
7.83
25.22

10.13
11.88
0
14.65
15.98
12.3
15.38
11.83
25.22
23.82
19.82
19.82
19.3

12.3
15.38
11.83
19.82
19.82
19.3
19.3
19.3
25.22
23.82
23.82
23.82
25.22

10.13
11.88
0
14.65
15.98
10.13
11.88
0
13.38
11.98
14.65
15.98
0

Copyright2011PearsonEducation,Inc.publishingasPrenticeHall.

23.82
25.22
25.05

22.05
32.05
32.05

11.98
0
11.98

20

3.24

CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T

(a)Probabilityofcompletionis17monthsorless:
17 21

P t 17 P z
P z 2.0
2

1 P z 2.0 1 0.97725 0.0228


(b)Probabilityofcompletionin20monthsorless:
20 21

P t 20 P z
P z 0.5
2

1 P z 0.5 1 0.69146 0.3085

3.25

A
B
C
D
E
F
G

3
2
1
7
6
2
4

3
2
1
10
8
3
14

0
2
11
3
4
12
10

3
4
12
10
10
14
14

0
2
11
0
2
11
0

(c) UsingPOMforWindowssoftware, minimum project


completion time 7. Additional crashing cost =
$1,550.

(d)Probabilityofcompletionin25monthsorless:
25 21

P t 25 P z
P z 2.0 0.97725
2

x 21

P z
1.645fora95%chanceofcompletion
2

bythex date.

Thenx 21 2(1.645)
24.29, or24months.

0
0
0
3
2
1
10

Slack

(b)Tocrashto10weeks,wefollow2steps:
Step1:crashDby2weeks($150)
CrashDandEby2weekseach($100$150)
Totalcrashcost$400additional

P z 1.0 0.84134

(e)

Project completion time = 14 weeks


ES
EF
LS
LF
Time

Task

(c)Probabilityofcompletionin23monthsorless:
23 21

P t 23 P z
2

(a)

Normal Crash Normal Crash Crash Crash Crashing


Time Time
Cost
Cost Cost/Pd By
Cost
A
B
C
D
E
F
G

3
2
1
7
6
2
4

3.26

(a)

2
1
1
3
3
1
2

1,000
2,000
300
1,300
850
4,000
1,500

Copyright2011PearsonEducation,Inc.publishingasPrenticeHall.

1,600
2,700
300
1,600
1,000
5,000
2,000

600
700
0
75
50
1,000
250

1
0
0
4
3
0
2

600
0
0
300
150
0
500

CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T

3.26

3.29

(b)

Task
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U

Time

ES

EF

LS

LF

Slack

0.0*
8.0
0.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
1.0
4.0
2.0
1.0
0.5
2.0
1.0
1.5
5.0
1.0
0.5
1.0
0.0*

0.0
0.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
9.0
8.0
8.0
10.0
8.0
12.0
14.0
15.0
11.0
13.0
13.0
8.1
15.5
16.5
17.0
18.0

0.0
8.0
8.1
9.0
9.0
10.0
10.0
11.0
11.0
12.0
14.0
15.0
15.5
13.0
14.0
14.5
13.1
16.5
17.0
18.0
18.0

0.0
0.0
10.4
12.0
10.0
13.0
9.0
11.0
11.0
8.0
12.0
14.0
15.0
12.0
14.5
14.0
10.5
15.5
16.5
17.0
18.0

0.0
8.0
10.5
13.0
11.0
14.0
11.0
14.0
12.0
12.0
14.0
15.0
15.5
14.0
15.5
15.5
15.5
16.5
17.0
18.0
18.0

0.0
0.0
2.4
4.0
2.0
4.0
1.0
3.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.5
1.0
2.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

21

(a)

(b)
Activity Time
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H

7
3
9
4
5
8
8
6

ES

EF

LS

LF

Slack

0
7
7
16
16
21
29
37

7
10
16
20
21
29
37
43

0
13
7
25
16
21
29
37

7
16
16
29
21
29
37
43

0
6
0
9
0
0
0
0

2
1
3
1
1
2
1
2

4*
1*
9*
1*
1*
4*
1*
4*

*Activities on the critical path: A, C, E, F, G, H. Project


Completiontime43.
(b)
4.8
49 43
z
= 1.25
4.8
P (t 49) .89435

*Note:Start(A)andFinish(U)areassignedtimesofzero.

CriticalpathisABJKLMRSTU,for18days.
(c)(i)no,transmissionsanddrivetrainsarenotonthe
criticalpath.

P(t 49) (1 .89435) = 0.10565


3.30

AONNetwork

(ii)no,halvingenginebuildingtimewillreducethe
criticalpathbyonlyoneday.
(iii)no,itisnotonthecriticalpath.
(d)Reallocatingworkersnotinvolvedwithcriticalpath
activities to activities along the critical path will
reducethecriticalpathlength.
Criticalpathis:B D,at13days

ADDITIONAL HOMEWORK PROBLEMS*


Problems 3.27 to 3.33 appear on our Internet home page, at
www.myomlab.com.

Activity

3.27

A
B
C
D
E

(a)

Daily Crash Costs


$100
50
100
150
200

Maximum Crash
(days)
1
2
1
2
3

day
days
day
days
days

Tocrashby4days,from13daysto9days,

(b)CriticalpathisBEFH.
(c)Time=16weeks
3.28

(a)Expectedtimesforindividualactivities(using(a+4m
+b)/6)).A=5,B=6,C=7,D=6,E=3.Expected
projectcompletiontime=15(ActivitiesACE).

CrashBby1day($50)toreach12days
CrashBbyasecondday($50)andCby1day($100)to
reach11days.
CrashDby2days($300)andEby2days($400)to
reach9daystotal.
Totalcosttocrash4days=$900

(b)Varianceforindividualactivities(using[(ba)/6] ).
A = 1; B = 1; C = 1; D = 4; E = 0. Project
variance=variancesoncriticalpath=1+1+0=2.
* Note to instructor: To broaden the selection of homework
problems,thesesevenproblemsarealsoavailabletoyouandyour
students.

Copyright2011PearsonEducation,Inc.publishingasPrenticeHall.

22

3.31

CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T

(a)

90 68.7

P t 90 P z
3.51

(b)Expectedtimesandvariances:
Activity

Expected
Time

Variance

A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L

8
6
3
10
6
9
6
14
10
6
4
1

10
7
3
20
7
10
7
15
11
7
7
2

12
9
4
30
8
11
10
16
13
8
8
4

10.0
7.2
3.2
20.0
7.0
10.0
7.3
15.0
11.2
7.0
6.7
2.2

0.44
0.25
0.03
11.11
0.11
0.11
0.44
0.11
0.25
0.11
0.44
0.25

(c)ES,EF,LS,LF,andslacktimes:
Activit Time
y
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L

10.0
7.2
3.2
20.0
7.0
10.0
7.3
15.0
11.2
7.0
6.7
2.2

ES

EF

LS

LF

0.0
0.0
0.0
10.0
3.2
30.0
30.0
40.0
40.0
55.0
62.0
55.0

10.0
7.2
3.2
30.0
10.2
40.0
37.3
55.0
51.2
62.0
68.7
57.2

0.0
22.8
19.8
10.0
23.0
30.0
47.7
40.0
50.8
55.0
62.0
66.5

10.0
30.0
23.0
30.0
30.0
40.0
55.0
55.0
62.0
62.0
68.7
68.7

Slack Critica
l
0.0
22.8
19.8
0.0
19.8
0.0
17.7
0.0
10.8
0.0
0.0
11.5

Yes
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No

(d)Thecriticalpathisgivenbytheactivities:
A,D,F,H,J,K
Expectedprojectcompletiontimeis68.7days.
(e)Probabilityofcompletionin70daysorless:
Projectvariance

=sumofvariancesofactivities
oncriticalpath
=0.4411.110.110.11
0.44=12.32
Standarddeviation=3.51

70 68.7

P t 70 P z
P z 0.37 0.644
3.51

(f)Probabilityofcompletionin80daysorless:
80 68.7

P t 80 P z
3.51

P z 3.22 0.99934

(g)Probabilityofcompletionin90daysorless:

Copyright2011PearsonEducation,Inc.publishingasPrenticeHall.

P z 6.07 0.99999

CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T

3.32TheoverallpurposeofProblem3.32istohavestudentsuse
anetworktosolveaproblemthatalmostallstudentsface.The
firststepisforstudentstolistallcoursesthattheymusttake,
includingpossibleelectives,togetadegreefromtheirparticular
collegeoruniversity.Foreverycourse,studentsshouldlistallthe
immediatepredecessors.Thenstudentsareaskedtoattemptto
develop a network diagram that shows these courses and their
immediatepredecessorsorprerequisitecourses.
Thisproblemcanalsopointoutsomeofthelimitationsof
the use of project management. As students try to solve this
problemtheymayrunintoseveraldifficulties.First,itisdifficult
toincorporateaminimumormaximumnumberofcoursesthata
student can take during a given semester. In addition, it is
difficultto scheduleelectivecourses.Someelectivecourseshave
prerequisites,
whileothersmaynot.Evenso,someoftheoverallapproachesof
networkanalysiscanbehelpfulintermsoflayingoutthecourses
thatarerequiredandtheirprerequisites.
Studentscanalsobeaskedtothinkaboutothertechniques
thatcanbeusedinsolvingthisproblem.Oneofthemostappropri
ateapproacheswouldbetouselinearprogrammingtoincorporate
manyoftheconstraints,suchasminimumandmaximumnumber
ofcredithourspersemester,thataredifficultorimpossibleto
incorporateinaprojectnetwork.
3.33TheConstructionCompanyprobleminvolves23separate
activities.Theseactivities,theirimmediatepredecessors,andtime
estimatesweregivenintheproblem.Oneofthemostdifficult
aspectsofthisproblemistotakethedatainthetablegiveninthe
problemandtoconstructanetworkdiagram.Thisnetworkdiagram
is necessary in order to determine beginning and ending node
numbersthatcanbeusedinthecomputerprogramtosolvethis
particularproblem.Thenetworkdiagramforthisproblemisas
follows:

Once this diagram has been developed, activity numbers,


startingandfinishingnodenumbers,andthethreetimeestimates
foreachactivitycanbeenteredintothecomputerprogram.The
computer program calculates the expected time and variance
estimatesforeachactivity,theexpectedprojectlength,variance,
anddataforallactivities.Liketheothernetworkproblems,these
dataincludetheearlieststarttime,earliestfinishtime,lateststart
time, latest time, and slack for all activities. The data are as
follows:

Copyright2011PearsonEducation,Inc.publishingasPrenticeHall.

23

24

CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T

TableforProblem3.33
Activity

Opt

Times
Most
Pess

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23

1.0
2.0
3.0
7.0
4.0
1.0
4.0
1.0
3.0
1.0
18.0
1.0
1.0
0.1
0.2
1.0
1.0
3.0
0.1
0.1
2.0
0.1
0.0

4.00
3.00
4.00
8.00
4.00
2.00
5.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
20.00
2.00
1.00
0.14
0.30
1.00
2.00
5.00
0.10
0.14
3.00
0.10
0.20

5.00
4.00
5.00
9.00
5.00
4.00
6.00
4.00
4.00
2.00
26.00
3.00
2.00
0.16
0.40
2.00
3.00
7.00
0.20
0.16
6.00
0.20
0.20

E(t)

ES

EF

LS

LF

Slack

3.67
3.00
4.00
8.00
4.17
2.17
5.00
2.17
3.83
1.17
20.67
2.00
1.17
0.14
0.30
1.17
2.00
5.00
0.12
0.14
3.33
0.12
0.17

0.67
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.17
0.50
0.33
0.50
0.17
0.17
1.33
0.33
0.17
1.00
0.03
0.17
0.33
0.67
0.02
0.00
0.67
0.02
0.03

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.67
4.00
8.00
13.00
7.83
3.00
0.00
15.17
20.67
21.83
21.97
21.97
23.14
25.14
30.14
30.25
30.25
30.39
33.59

3.67
3.00
4.00
8.00
7.83
6.17
13.00
15.17
11.67
4.17
20.67
17.17
21.83
21.97
22.27
23.14
25.14
30.14
30.25
30.39
33.59
30.50
33.75

9.00
16.50
14.50
3.50
12.67
18.50
11.50
16.50
16.83
19.50
0.00
18.67
20.67
21.83
24.84
21.97
23.14
25.14
30.14
33.33
30.25
33.47
33.59

12.67
19.50
18.50
11.50
16.83
20.67
16.50
18.67
20.67
20.67
20.67
20.67
21.83
21.97
25.14
23.14
25.14
30.14
30.25
33.47
33.59
33.58
33.75

9.00
16.50
14.50
3.50
9.00
14.50
3.50
3.50
9.00
16.5
0.00
3.50
0.00
0.00
2.87
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.08
0.00
3.08
0.00

As you can see, the expected project length is about 34 weeks. The activities along the critical path are activities
11,13,14,16,17,18,19,21,and23.

Copyright2011PearsonEducation,Inc.publishingasPrenticeHall.

CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T

3.

CASE STUDY
SOUTHWESTERNUNIVERSITY:A

Crashto250daysandto240days

Activity

1.

25

Normal
Time (days)

A
30
B
60
C
65
D
55
E
30
F
0*
G
30
H
20
I
30
J
10
K
0*
L
30
*Roundedtozerofrom0.1

Crash
Time (days)

Crash
Cost/Day

20
20
50
30
25
0
25
10
20
8
0
20

$1,500
$3,500
$4,000
$1,900
$9,500
$0
$2,500
$2,000
$2,000
$6,000
$0
$4,500

Varianceofcriticalpath=11.11+69.39+136.1+2.78

Tocrashto250days(fromthecurrent260days), select A at
$1,500/day10days=$15,000.
Tocrashto240daysnow(fromthecurrent250days),selectDat
$1,900/day10days=$19,000.
Totalcosttocrashto240days=$34,000additional.

+11.11 44.44+44.44=319.37

VIDEO CASE STUDIES

Criticalpath

=
A C D G H I L(260days)

Activity Mean
tA = 30
tB = 60
tC = 65
tD = 55
tE = 30
tF = 0
tG = 30
tH = 20
tI = 30
tJ = 10
tK = 0
tL = 30

S.D.
3.33*
10.00
8.33*
11.66*
1.67
0.10
1.67*
3.33*
6.67*
0.67
0.10
6.67*

Variance
11.11
100.00
69.39
136.10
2.78
0.00
2.78
11.11
44.44
0.44
0.00
44.44

*Criticalpath

Standarddeviationofcriticalpath=17.87days
2.

P(Completion<270days)=P(t270)
270 260

P Z
17.87

P Z 0.56 0.712 71.2%

PROJECTMANAGEMENTATARNOLD
PALMERHOSPITAL

The ArnoldPalmer Hospitalvideo forthis case(8 minutes)is


availablefromPrenticeHall.AlsonotethattheGlobalCompany
ProfileinChapter6highlightsthishospital.
1.Constructionprojectnetwork:

2. The critical path is Activities 135681011121416


17192021. The project length is 47 monthsabout four
yearsfromstarttofinish.
3. Building a hospital is much more complex than an office
buildingforseveralreasons.Inthiscase,hundredsofusersof
thenewbuildinghadextensiveinput.Second,thedesignofthe
newlayout(circular,poddesign)issomewhatradicalcompared
totraditionallinearhospitals.Third,thehospitalwasbuiltwith
future expansion in mind. Fourth, the guiding principles
impactedondesign/construction.Fifth,hospitals,bytheirvery
nature,aremorecomplexfromasafety,healthhazard,security,
quiet,serenityperspectivethananofficebuilding.
4. Sincetherewere13monthsofplanningpriortotheproposal/
reviewstage(listedasActivity1)andtheprojectthentook
47months(foratotalof60months),22%ofthetimewas
spentinplanning.
Constructionitselfstartedwithactivity14(19.75months);there
were 13 19.75 months of work ( 32.75 months) out of
60 months, or 55% of the time was spent prior to building
beginning.

Copyright2011PearsonEducation,Inc.publishingasPrenticeHall.

26

CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T

Thesefiguresreflecttheimportanceofpreplanningplacedon
theproject.Ratherthanhavingtoredowallsorrooms,mockups
anddetailedplanningmeetingssavedtimeonthebackendand
resultedinabuildingthatmettheneedsofpatientsandstaffalike.It
alwayspaystospendextratimeonthefrontendofalargeproject.
2

MANAGINGHARDROCKSROCKFEST

Thereisashort(9minute)videoavailablefromPrenticeHalland
filmedspecificallyforthistextthatsupplementsthiscase.
HardRocksES,EF,LS,LF,andSlack

2.ActivitiesC,K,L,M,N,Q,R,V,W,Y,andZhaveslacksof
8ormoreweeks
3.Majorchallenges aprojectmanagerfacesinaprojectlike
Rockfest:(1)keepingintouchwitheachpersonresponsible
formajoractivities,(2)lastminutesurprises,(3)costoverruns,
(4)toomanyfanstryingtoenterthevenue,(5)resignationsof
oneofthekeymanagersorpromoters,andmanyothers.
4.Workbreakdownstructure,withexampleofLevel1,2,3,4
tasks

Networkdiagram

Activity
time
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
W
X
Y
Z

7
3
3
5
6
4
2
4
4
10
2
3
8
6
7
20
4
4
3
4
6
7
4
8
6
6

Early
Start
0
7
7
10
15
21
25
10
14
18
10
15
18
10
27
10
10
14
25
7
11
11
18
17
10
16

Early
Finish
7
10
10
15
21
25
27
14
18
28
12
18
26
16
34
30
14
18
28
11
17
18
22
25
16
22

Late
Start
0
7
18
10
15
21
25
16
20
24
21
23
26
28
27
14
19
23
31
13
17
23
30
23
22
28

Late
Finish
7
10
21
15
21
25
27
20
24
34
23
26
34
34
34
34
23
27
34
17
23
30
34
31
28
34

Slack
0
0
11
0
0
0
0
6
6
6
11
8
8
18
0
4
9
9
6
6
6
12
12
6
12
12

1.0Rockfestevent,withsiteselected(A)
1.1Selectlocalpromoter(B)
1.11Website(D)

[Level1]
[Level2]
[Level3]

1.12TVdeal(E)
1.13Hiredirector(F)
1.131Cameraplacement(G)

[Level4]

1.14Headlineentertainers(H)
1.141Supportentertainers(I)
1.142Travelfortalent(J)
1.143Passes/stagecredentials(O)
1.15Stafftravel(P)
1.16Merchandisedeals(Y)
1.161Onlinesalesofmerchandise(Z)
1.17Hiresponsorcoordinator(Q)
1.171Finalizesponsors(R)
1.172Signageforsponsors(S)
1.2Hireproductionmanager(C)
1.21Sound/staging(N)
1.22Venuecapacity(K)
1.221TicketMastercontract(L)
1.222Onsiteticketing(M)

1.The critical path is ABDEFGO, with a timeline of


34weeks.
Copyright2011PearsonEducation,Inc.publishingasPrenticeHall.

CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T

1.3Hireoperationsmanager(T)
1.31Siteplan(U)
1.311Power,etc.(X)
1.32Securitydirector(V)
1.321Setpolice/fireplan(W)
AnswersmayvarysomewhatattheLevel3andLevel4.
Level2activitiesshouldbeactivitiesB,C,andT.

ADDITIONAL CASE STUDY*


SHALEOILCOMPANY
1.Determinethe expectedshutdown timeand theprobability
theshutdownwillbecompletedoneweekearlier.
2.What are the probabilities that Shale finishes the
maintenanceprojectoneday,twodays,threedays,fourdays,
fivedays,orsixdaysearlier?
Fromtheprecedencedatasuppliedintheproblem,wecan
developthefollowingAONnetwork.

*ThiscasestudyisfoundonourCompanionWebsites,at
www.pearsonhighered.com/heizer,andatwww.myomlab.com.

Copyright2011PearsonEducation,Inc.publishingasPrenticeHall.

27

28

CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T

Thefollowingtableindicatestheexpectedtimes,variances,andslacksneededtocompletetherestofthecase:
Activity

Opt

Most
Likely Pess

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29

1.0
1.5
2.0
1.0
1.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
2.0
15.0
1.0
3.0
3.0
14.0
1.0
2.0
5.0
10.0
4.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
2.0
1.5
1.0
3.0

2.0
2.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
2.5
4.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
2.5
20.0
1.5
5.0
8.0
21.0
5.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
5.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
4.0
2.0
3.0
5.0

2.5
2.5
4.0
3.0
4.0
3.0
5.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
3.0
30.0
2.0
8.0
15.0
28.0
10.0
10.0
20.0
25.0
8.0
3.0
2.5
3.0
3.0
6.0
2.5
5.0
10.0

E(t)
1.92
2.00
3.00
2.00
2.17
2.50
3.83
2.00
1.50
1.50
2.50
20.83
1.50
5.17
8.33
21.00
5.17
5.33
10.83
15.83
5.33
2.00
1.92
2.00
2.00
4.00
2.00
3.00
5.50

0.25
0.17
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.17
0.50
0.33
0.17
0.17
0.17
2.50
0.17
0.83
2.00
2.33
1.50
1.33
2.50
2.50
0.67
0.33
0.25
0.33
0.33
0.67
0.17
0.67
1.17

ES
0.00
1.92
3.92
3.92
3.92
3.92
3.92
6.92
5.92
5.92
6.08
6.08
6.42
6.42
7.75
8.92
7.42
7.42
8.58
7.92
29.92
12.75
14.75
26.92
23.75
16.08
35.25
37.25
40.25

EF

LS

LF

Slack

1.92
3.92
6.92
5.92
6.08
6.42
7.75
8.92
7.42
7.42
8.58
26.92
7.92
11.58
16.08
29.92
12.58
12.75
19.42
23.75
35.25
14.75
16.67
28.92
25.75
20.08
37.25
40.25
45.75

0.00
1.92
3.92
22.50
10.25
13.42
29.58
6.92
26.67
24.50
19.92
12.42
15.92
28.08
33.42
8.92
28.17
26.00
22.42
17.42
29.92
31.33
33.33
33.25
33.25
41.75
35.25
37.25
40.25

1.92
3.92
6.92
24.50
12.42
15.92
33.42
8.92
28.17
26.00
22.42
33.25
17.42
33.25
41.75
29.92
33.33
31.33
33.25
33.25
35.25
33.33
35.25
35.25
35.25
45.75
37.25
40.25
45.75

0.000
0.000
0.000
18.580
6.333
9.500
25.670
0.000
20.750
18.580
13.830
6.330
9.500
21.670
25.670
0.000
20.750
18.580
13.830
9.500
0.000
18.580
18.580
6.330
9.500
25.670
0.000
0.000
0.000

Fromthetable,wecanseethattheexpectedshutdowntimeis45.75,or46days.Therearenineactivitiesonthecriticalpath.

Activity
1
2
3
8
16
21
27
28
29
Variance for critical path:

0.25
0.17
0.33
0.33
2.33
0.67
0.17
0.67
1.17

0.0625
0.0289
0.1089
0.1089
5.4289
0.4489
0.0289
0.4489
1.3689
8.033
7

Therefore, = 8.0337 2.834. As an approximation, we can


usethecustomaryequationforthenormaldistribution:
z

Duedate E (t )

(Note: This might be a good time to discuss the difference


betweenacontinuousandadiscreteprobabilitydistributionand
theappropriateprocedureforusingacontinuousdistributionasan
approximationtoadiscrete,ifyouhavenotalreadydoneso.)

Finish Time
One day early
Two days early
Three days early
Four days early
Five days early
Six days early
Seven days early

z
0.353
0.706
1.058
1.411
1.764
2.117
2.470

Probability
36.3
24.0
14.5
7.9
3.9*
1.7
0.7

*Theappropriateprocedureforusingthenormaldistributiongives3.0%
roughlya30%difference.

Thereis,bytheapproximateprocedureused,a3.9%probability
offinishingfivedays,oroneweek,early.
3.ShaleOilisconsideringincreasingthebudgettoshortenthe
shutdown.Howdoyousuggestthecompanyproceed?
In order to shorten the shutdown, Shale Oil would have to
determinethecostsofdecreasingtheactivitiesonthecritical
path. This is the vessel and column branch of the network,
whichistypicallythelongestsectioninashutdown.Thecost
ofreducingactivitytimebyonetimeunitforeachactivityin
thisbranchwouldhavetobecalculated.Theactivitywiththe
lowestofthesecostscouldthenbeactedupon.Perhapsthe
repairs to the vessels and columns could be expedited with
workersfromsomeoftheotherbrancheswithhighslacktime.
However,deliveryonmaterialscouldbeanoverridingfactor.

Copyright2011PearsonEducation,Inc.publishingasPrenticeHall.

CHAPTER 3P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T

Copyright2011PearsonEducation,Inc.publishingasPrenticeHall.

29