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The members of the S&P/ASX20 Index make up almost 60% of the market capitalisation
of the broader S&P/ASX300 Index1
These market heavyweights have underperformed the rest of the market over the year-todate, over one year and over three years2
We are not willing to give up on them entirely and some of the names should still have a
place in your portfolio
20
10
Apr-2016
Feb-2016
Dec-2015
Oct-2015
Aug-2015
Jun-2015
Apr-2015
Feb-2015
Dec-2014
Oct-2014
Aug-2014
Jun-2014
Apr-2014
Feb-2014
Dec-2013
Oct-2013
Aug-2013
-10
Jun-2013
It is not even as if these mega-cap stocks offer diversification across sectors. The S&P/ASX20 is even
more skewed than the broader market index, with 11 out of the 20 constituents being within the
Financials sector, making up 60% of the weight1.
Bloomberg, 31 May 2016 as measured by the S&P/ASX 20 Index , compared with the S&P/ASX300 Index.
Financials only make up 25% of the weight of the S&P/ASX300 ex the 20 Leaders. In fact, excluding
the 20 Leaders creates a less concentrated, more varied index, with decent exposures to broader
swathes of the Australian economy than just banks and miners.
ASX300
ASX20
ASX300 ex-20
In terms of fundamentals, as well as performance, these largest names have been underperforming of
late. Earnings expectations for the S&P/ASX20 have been declining over the past year, and while the
rest of the market has seen an uplift of late, the megacaps have largely continued their downward
slide.
100
80
60
ASX20
ASX300
ASX300 ex-20
ASX300 Financials
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
40
Before we all give up hope and limit ourselves to an ex-20 world, there are other considerations. A
glimmer of hope for the largest names is in terms of valuations; the S&P/ASX20 now looks cheaper in
terms of forward P/Es than the rest of the market.
18
16
14
12
ASX20
ASX300
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Sep-13
Nov-13
10
ASX300 ex-20
In fact, valuation is just one component of our assessment of the relative opportunities in the local
market. As active investors, we look at both the overall expected return of a stock and the risk when
considering opportunities. If we compare these attributes for stocks within the S&P/ASX20, compared
to the market averages, a rather different picture emerges and on this basis, there are some very
attractive names within the top 20. There is a reason these stocks are so large in terms of
capitalisation, and some exhibit good quality, decent valuations, are stable cash-generative, mature
businesses with relatively low volatility. This doesnt sound too bad when they can be picked up at
reasonable valuations.
2.0
1.0
Average ASX20
Average
ASX300 ex-20
0.0
0
10
20
30
-1.0
-2.0
90d Volatility
40
50
60
The State Street Australian Equity Fund has a 20% weight across six stocks from the S&P/ASX20
names3. Among the stocks we currently hold are some Financials, such as CBA and Westpac;
Industrials such as Transurban and even a miner. At 20% combined weight, this is a meaningful
allocation and a far cry from the 60% weight the S&P/ASX300 ascribes to the top 20 names.
We believe that to build a portfolio to maximise risk-adjusted return, all stocks within the investable
universe should be considered and this includes the top 20 mega-caps. However, when constructing
the portfolio, we select only the stocks exhibiting the best risk and return profiles. The result may,
thankfully, look very different from the capitalisation-based index.
as at 31 May 2016
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