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economic scenarios
for 201525
Strategy September 2015
Luis Enriquez
Sven Smit
Jonathan Ablett
CDP 2015
Shifting tides: Global economic scenarios for 20152025
Exhibit 1 of 9
Exhibit 1
A wider divergence in growth has surfaced among emerging and advanced economies.
Real GDP growth in advanced economies,
year over year, %
14
12
10
10
China
8
6
4
2
0
2
United
Kingdom
United States
Japan
Euro majors1
India
South
Africa
Russia
Brazil
6
8
10
2005
1France,
2010
2014
10
2005
2010
2014
Near-term factors
Stimulating aggregate demand. Of immediate
concern is the persistent problem of weak aggregate
demand relative to overall economic capacity.
The International Monetary Fund estimates that
production in the ten largest advanced economies
was 2 percent below potential in 2014. This gap was
smaller than it had been in 2009 (3.3 percent) but
significantly worse than the surplus of 0.8 percent that
prevailed in the early 2000s.3 All major economies
except China experienced significantly weaker
demand in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.
Many governments and central banks responded
with fiscal and monetary stimulus programs that
fostered the low real-interest-rate environments
CDP 2015
Shifting tides: Global economic scenarios for 20152025
Exhibit 2 of 9
Exhibit 2
Real interest rates, long negative in the United States and the United Kingdom,
have slowly turned negative in the eurozone and Japan as well.
Real interest rates,
200014, %1
Bank of England
US Federal Reserve
Bank of Japan
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1Policy
CDP 2015
Shifting tides: Global economic scenarios for 20152025
Exhibit 3 of 9
Exhibit 3
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2014
on World Bank crude-oil average and US Consumer Price Index re-referenced to 2014.
Inexorable factors
Unlike the variegated impact of demand stimuli and
energy-market shifts, the effects of urbanization and
aging are predictable and are tilting the global economy
in one general direction: toward emerging markets.
Increasing urban congestion and an aging labor force
impose burdensamong them, lower productivity,
falling demand, and rising health and pension
loadson all economies. The challenges are clear. The
uncertainty lies in how economies will adapt to them.
Exhibit 4
300
3.2x
167
166
92
CAGR,1
%
1Compound
Working
age
(1564)
65+
years
Working
age
(1564)
65+
years
1.0
2.4
0.5
3.2
0.0%
Exhibit 5
Financial and trade flows surged together until 2007 but have since taken different paths.
Imports
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1990
1Includes
1995
2000
2005
2010
2013
foreign direct investment, portfolio equity, portfolio debt, and other investments.
Exhibit 6
Accelerating growth
Near-term demand stimulus
leads to self-sustaining recovery
Sustained technological
innovation
Broadening investment in
education and infrastructure
Divergence
Convergence
Divergence
Normalization of credit channels stalls
Movement toward market-based
capital allocation slows
Rising implicit and explicit restrictions
on global M&A, intellectual property,
privacy, and trade
Demographic shifts aggravate
differences among countries
Deceleration
Decelerating growth
Near-term demand stimulus fails
to spur self-sustaining recovery
Deceleration of technological
innovation and diffusion
among countries
Improvements in infrastructure
and education slow
Exhibit 7
Long-term global growth has stayed within a narrow band since the 1980s, even after
the 2008 economic crisis.
Real GDP growth rates,
19852015, % 1
4
3.4
3.3
2.7
0
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015E
1 Including
the following countries: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico,
Russia, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom, and United States or their preceding entities as defined in Maddison. Extended
data were not available for Saudi Arabia or South Africa.
Source: The Maddison Project, accessed April 2015
CDP 2015
Shifting tides: Global economic scenarios for 201525
Exhibit 8 of 9
Exhibit 8
6.3
6
4
6.6
2.8
0.7
1.3
1.0
0
United Euro- Japan China
States pean
Union
3.5
3.0
1.5
1.7
1.9
5.4
0.6
0
United Euro- Japan China
States pean
Union
5.7
6
4
1.9
0.4
1.7
8
5.2
7.9
Economies
converge
3. Global deceleration
(G-20 growth: 3.0%)
6.5
2.7
Economies
diverge
1. Global synchronicity
(G-20 growth: 3.8%)
0.3
India Energy Comdriven modity
driven
2.8
2.2
6.8
1.1
0.7
0
United Euro- Japan China
States pean
Union
1.0
India Energy Comdriven modity
driven
Growth decelerates
Note: G-20 accounts for more than 75% of global economy; its members are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France,
Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, United Kingdom, and United States,
as well as European Union as a region.
Source: McKinsey analysis
CDP 2015
Shifting tides: Global economic scenarios for 201525
Exhibit 9 of 9
Exhibit 9
Pockets of growth
Global synchronicity
SCENARIO 2
SCENARIO 1
Divergence
Convergence
SCENARIO 4
SCENARIO 3
Global deceleration
Growth
below 30-year trend
14
Koh Gui Qing and Kevin Yao, China signals new normal with
higher spending, lower growth target, Reuters, March 5, 2015,
reuters.com.