Journal of Cleaner Production 17 (2009) 644652

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Journal of Cleaner Production

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jclepro

Inuence factors for scenario analysis for new environmental

technologies the case for biopolymer technology
Florentine Schwark*
Zurichbergstrasse 18, 8032 ETH Zurich, Switzerland

a r t i c l e i n f o

a b s t r a c t

Article history:
Available online 24 December 2008

New environmental technologies pose signicant uncertainties because a clear prediction of their future
development and application possibilities cannot be made. In order to include different future prospects
in rms and policy-makers planning processes, scenario analysis constitutes a very suitable method.
The characterization of important inuence factors is central for informative results of an analysis as they
dene the nature and intensity of impacts of a technologys environment. This paper aims at specifying
a classication of inuence factors for new technology scenario analysis by including major insights from
diffusion theory. Subsequently, an exemplary application for biopolymer technology is given.
2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords:
Scenario analysis
Diffusion theory
Biopolymers
PLA blend technology

1. Introduction
The introduction of new environmental technologies in
production poses signicant uncertainties for rms regarding the
technologies future application possibilities [1,2]. Life cycle analysis may lead to expectations of future developments of technologies. A denite statement about the future cannot, however, be
made in an early stage of the life cycle. Accordingly, a foresight of
the development of new technologies always includes an evaluation of a range of development possibilities.
Scenario analysis is a very suitable foresight method that
comprises the opportunity to include diverse inuence factors for
the description of multiple possible future development paths of
a new technology [3]. A clear denition of inuence factors for
a scenario analysis is central to this. Yet such a compendium is still
absent from literature. The approach of this paper is to describe
a classication of key inuence factors for a scenario analysis for
new technologies (technology scenario analysis) by the inclusion of
the main inuence factors of diffusion theory and by the description of their interdependencies. As diffusion theory describes the
impact of factors on the development of innovations in a detailed
manner, the results are eminently transferable to the method of
scenario analysis. Consequently, scenario analysis is enriched by
a clearly dened approach to the study of the development of
technologies, including the most important inuence factors. This
renders a sound basis for a scenario analysis of technologies
applicable to specic problems.

* Tel.: 41 44 632 8798; fax: 41 44 632 1362.

E-mail address: fschwark@ethz.ch
0959-6526/$ see front matter 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2008.11.017

The results are applied to an exemplary scenario analysis for

a new environmental technology. Technologies to produce
biopolymers, i.e. polymers which are produced from renewable
resources and biodegradable, might have a promising future
development. Forecasts, however, differ considerably [47].
The rst section of the paper introduces the detailed classication of inuence factors as to how elements of technology
diffusion can be integrated in this approach. The second section
gives a short example of an application of the new approach for
biopolymer technology. The paper ends with discussion and
conclusion.
2. Theory
Scenario analysis exemplies a very suitable method of anticipating possible future developments of a new technology. Literature describes the procedure of scenario analysis comprehensively
but while the basis for scenario analysis is the denition of inuence factors in the development of new technologies, it remains
mostly broad and lacks detailed description. Yet a clear determination of inuence factors is crucial for such analysis. In this
context, diffusion theory offers a sound description of factors that
essentially inuence the diffusion of a technology. The approach
towards these factors has so far been mainly in an ex post
(descriptive) manner. The key idea of this methodology to combine
scenario analysis and diffusion theory offers the possibility to
employ the factors in an ex ante way as well.
This section describes as a rst step the general approach of
scenario analysis and as a second the diffusion theory. Both will be
combined in a third step in which the main inuence factors for
scenario analysis for new technologies are described.

F. Schwark / Journal of Cleaner Production 17 (2009) 644652

645

2.1. Scenario analysis: general approach

Definition of unit of analysis

The uncertainty that concerns technological development and

the development of their business environment convinced many
rms to employ scenario analysis [1]. Ref. [8] denes scenarios as
plausible representations of the future based on sets of internally
consistent assumptions [.] about relationships and processes of
change [.]. This presents scenario planning as the institutionalized process of conducting one or more scenario analyses as a
disciplined method for imagining possible futures [9]. This
approach distinguishes scenario analysis from forecasting as the
latter is useful in the short term when predictability of developments is relatively high and uncertainty quite low owing to the low
probability of disturbing events. In the long term, however, many
developments are not clearly predictable and uncertainty can be
signicant [10]. Scenario analysis therefore focuses on the
description of certain and uncertain trends, the underlying causal
processes, and crucial decision points [11]. Hence, scenarios are
more than just the technical output of simulation models, but
they try to interpret such output by identifying patterns and clusters among the various outcomes. In addition, they often include
elements that cannot be formally modeled very easily, such as new
regulations, value shifts or innovations [3].1
There are two approaches to scenario analysis: the normative
and the exploratory approach. The normative approach aims at
characterizing the way to achieve one of a number of possible
future situations (scenarios). The exploratory approach takes past
trends and the status quo as a starting-point, develops different
future states, and analyzes the implications of these scenarios for
strategic decision-making today [8]. This latter approach is applied
in the analysis of future developments of biopolymers. Thus, it is
not the intention to describe explicit steps to attaining a desirable
future as it is in the normative approach. In practice, differing
scenario methods for the exploratory approach exist [12], mainly
varying in the number of steps. These steps can be classied in ve
categories, as in Fig. 1.
Literature about scenario analysis describes a rather broad
denition of inuence factors. They are usually derived from the
thematic elds of economy, politics, society, technology and
ecology. It lacks, however, especially in the case of new technologies, a clear description of inuence factors that affect the future
development of the technologies.
2.2. Diffusion theory
Diffusion theory analyzes in which ways the use of an innovation spreads throughout a social system [13]. Therefore it examines
the process of up-scaling innovations2 from small-scale to
widespread use [15]. The aim of diffusion theory is to provide
a framework of variables that inuence the diffusion of innovations
and their importance to the process of adoption. Hence, the
emphasis is not on an exhaustive description of every particularity
of a variables effects [16].
Rogerss early work in Ref. [14] stimulated an era of research in
the diffusion of technologies and is the basis for this analysis,
enriched by the research of additional authors. According to him,
the four main determinants of the diffusion process are those
described in Fig. 2.
All four determinants play an important role in the diffusion of
an innovation. In order to identify technological inuence factors ex
ante, however, the focus is on the description of the perceived

For a critical appreciation of the method of scenario analysis, see [3,10].

The word innovation is often used synonymously with the word technology
[14].
2

Identification of influence factors including

a ranking by importance and uncertainty
Extrapolation of trends, analysis
of the actor roles and strategies etc.

Creation of plausible scenarios

Evaluation and interpretation

of the scenarios for following actions
Fig. 1. Steps in exploratory scenario analysis [8,9].

attributes of an innovation (see Fig. 2). The time factor as an

important linkage to scenario analysis will be reected mainly in
the conduction of the scenario analysis.
In the matter of diffusion research the absolute newness of an
idea and the objective attributes are less important in comparison
with the perception of newness for an individual who gets hold of
this idea and develops a subjective attitude towards this innovation. The rationale behind this is that the adoptive behavior of
potential users is widely determined by this perceived newness
[14].3
The variance in the rate of innovation diffusion can be explained
from 49 to 87 per cent by the rst ve attributes in Fig. 2 [14].
Additionally, perceived risk is often mentioned as an important
innovation attribute [1719]. Assessing the positive or negative
effects of the attributes in general, relative advantage, compatibility, triability and observability have a promotional impact on the
diffusion while complexity and perceived risk impede potential
users in adopting an innovation.
Within this list of attributes, relative advantage takes an
outstanding position as it has the largest impact on the diffusion of
an innovation. Therefore the main focus of the analysis is on relative advantage. It is referred to as the degree to which an innovation is perceived as being better than the idea that it supersedes
[21] and can be measured by the ve factors presented in Fig. 2
[14].4
The higher is the satisfaction concerning these factors, the faster
is the adoption and diffusion of an innovation. The type of relative
advantage perceived as the most important for the adopter is
likewise affected by the characteristics of the potential adopters
and thus these characteristics indirectly contribute to the diffusion
possibilities of an innovation [14].
2.3. Scenario analysis for new technologies
Generally, the above-mentioned steps for a scenario analysis
remain valid for a technology scenario analysis. The rst step in
a technology scenario is a denition of the technology that needs to
be more closely examined so the technology needs to be described
in terms of the system of technologies that surrounds it [9,25,26].
For the denition of inuence factors (step 2 in Fig. 1) two kinds,
derived from diffusion theory, are included in technology scenario
analysis, which constitutes the novelty of this approach: general
and technology-specic factors. This classication results from the
assumption that general inuence factors have a universal impact

Cf. therefore the dictum of the Chicago School of Society [20].

The amount and degree of detail of innovation characteristics differ in studies.
See therefore also [2224].
4

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F. Schwark / Journal of Cleaner Production 17 (2009) 644652

Determinants

Attributes

Elements of relative advantage

The perceived attributes

of innovation

Relative advantage

Economic factors

Time

Compatibility

Status aspects of innovations

The communication channels

by which the innovation
is distributed

Complexity

Decrease in discomfort

The social system

(influences from the
environment)

Triability

Saving of time and efforts

Observability

Immediacy of reward

Perceived risk

Fig. 2. Overview of the main determinants and the most inuential attributes [14,1719].

on the analyzed technology as they do on other subjects, while

technology-specic factors, derived from diffusion theory, inuence the analyzed technology in a specic manner. Furthermore,
general inuence factors may also have an inuence on technologyspecic inuence factors, such as the possibility that economic
development may inuence the perceived economic risk that
a potential adopter faces in the adoption of a technology. The better
the economic development, the more prepared the potential
adopter might be to take the risk, and thus the lower the perceived
risk.
Additional to the external inuences, technologies have an
autonomous, evolutionary development, which is not included in
diffusion theory. The technology evolves further as a result of
research and development or learning curves, and at some point in
time the technology, or possibly the set of technologies, can be used
for a new application [25,27].
In Fig. 3, a composition of the above-described inuence areas,
including all main determinants of diffusion as described by [14], is
proposed: in the gure there are two circles around the unit of
analysis which describe the kinds of inuence factors in order of the
degree of generality of inuence. In the outer circle general inuence factors describe general evolutions as described in literature
about scenario analysis. These also include society and thereby the
social system in Rogerss diffusion theory. In the inner circle
perceived attributes as technology-specic factors have a specic
inuence on the unit of scenario analysis. Additional to the attributes, the communication channel is also integrated in this circle as
it is regarded as technology-specic and as being of subjective
nature concerning the perception of the innovation. Time is
included in the internal, autonomous development of the technology itself.
The element time also dominates the further steps 3 and 4 (cf.
Fig. 1) as the development of the inuence factors (depicted in
Fig. 3) is evaluated in the course of the scenario analysis.
To recapitulate, a detailed denition of inuence factors for
a scenario analysis for new technologies can be drawn from diffusion
theory. This approach improves the opportunity to describe forces that
are crucial for the future development of a new technology and to
extrapolate them in order to describe future states of an innovation.
Following this theoretical approach, a scenario analysis for the
case of biopolymers is made in the next chapter.

3. PLA blends and production technology

In general, the demand for plastics has increased during the last
years and this development is likely to continue [4]. The current
level of world consumption is at 180 million tons and is expected to
rise to 258 million tons in 2010. This corresponds to a per capita
consumption of 24.5 kg today and 37 kg by 2010 [28].
Polymers are used for many applications like packaging and
electronics as they have advantageous attributes compared with
other materials, such as low weight, little energy requirement for
production and processing as well as the option for an immediate reuse of production waste [29]. Indeed, the application
possibilities of plastics, such as automotive parts that were
formerly made from other materials, have increased during the
last few years.
Most plastics today are made from oil and are non-biodegradable. This poses environmental problems owing to the foreseeable
drop in extraction of fossil fuels and to rising landlls [3032]. In
order to alleviate this problem, recent research and development
efforts succeeded in producing polymers from renewable resources
and polymers that are biodegradable. Some plastics even combine
both characteristics.
3.1. Biopolymers
Biopolymers mainly differ from traditional polymers by
a change in the life cycle. The new focus on polymers based on
renewable resources as well as on biodegradable polymers generates a new tendency of sustainability in the polymer industry [33].
The denition of biopolymers is, however, not uniform in literature
[34].5 Biopolymers can be dened from the input point of view as
polymers that have monomers, which are totally or mainly contained in the biomass, or which can be made from biomass using
bio-technological processes [36]. Also, they can be dened as
biodegradable polymers. The most common denition is the
combination of renewable resources and biodegradability [7,30,37].
In this thesis the latter denition of biopolymers is mostly referred
to unless otherwise described.

For reasons for the long-lasting discussions about a denition, cf. [35].

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647

Natural environment
Society
Relative advantage
Perceived
Observarisk
bility

Technology
today

Internal development by
R&D, learning curve etc.

Technology
in the future

Complexity

Triability
Politics

Compatibility

Communication
channel
General technology

Economy

Fig. 3. Schematic illustration of the inuence factors on a new technology including autonomous development (own illustration).

Degradable biopolymers in general are an interesting alternative to traditional plastics, especially for applications where recycling is impractical or uneconomical or when the environmental
impact has to be minimized [7,38]. Bioplastics from renewable
origin, either biodegradable or non-biodegradable, were in 2001
still a niche market as they required high efforts for material and
application development [7]. In any case, the biopolymer sector
grows continuously. The European consumption in 2003 was
40,000 tons, which shows a doubling from 2001 [39]. Generally, the
future of bioplastics is controversial and subject to many discussions and studies [7,40]. Owing to this high development uncertainty, the subject of biopolymers and the corresponding
production technology are an interesting topic for scenario
analysis.
For a technology scenario analysis, it is necessary to choose
a specic technology. Polylactic acid (PLA) blend technology was
selected as a unit of analysis. PLA is a biopolymer that includes both
characteristics of a biopolymer (renewable raw material and
biodegradability). Blending renes PLA (cf. the next section), and
the blending technology may have considerable development
possibilities.
3.2. PLA and PLA blends
Polylactic acid (PLA) is a degradable aliphatic polyester which
can be completely produced from natural resources [41]. It was
rst produced in 1845 [42], and increased R&D efforts have been
made from the 1980s on. Since the start of the production by
NatureWorks6 in 2002, PLA has become the second type of
biopolymer (on the basis of renewable raw materials) that has been
commercialized and produced on a large scale [43].
3.2.1. Characteristics and applications of PLA today
The production of PLA is effected mostly by fermentation of
plant sugars (starch) into lactic acid, which is then polymerized to
polylactic acid (such as PLA from NatureWorks) [7,32].
PLA and its copolymers7 have excellent properties concerning
their applications in ecological, biomedical and pharmaceutical
applications. The reasons therefore are [42,45]:

- The production from renewable resources (e.g. from maize,

wheat, sugar beet)8 and thus less dependency on oil.
- The mechanical properties that are comparable with those of
some traditional polymers (like polyethylene, polypropylene
and polystyrene). Additional unique combinations of other
excellent properties, such as strength, hardness, stiffness,
elasticity, as well as good processability for injection moulding,
extrusion equipment and lm-blowing increases the application possibilities [49]. The high clarity, the high odor and avor
barrier, the high moisture barrier and the high resistance to
grease and oil nd many applications in packaging [42].
- The degradability in the human body and in the natural
environment.
- The very low toxicity of their degradation products (lactid acid
and its oligomers) in the human body and in natural
environments.
The combination of these advantages fosters the diffusion of
PLA. The major disadvantage is its brittleness and its low plastic
elongation.
The physical attributes, hydrolysis and biodegradation behavior
of PLA depend on the alternation of their molecular characteristics
and their ordered structures. The latter can be varied by different
methods, for instance, polymer blending [42]. The word blending
refers to an activity where different polymers are mixed in order to
combine the characteristics of them all [44,50]. Blends still show
many research possibilities for optimizing the combination of
components with the goal of customized materials with optimal
and complex attributes [42,51].
Products made of PLA on the market today are prototypes and
pioneers. An overview of the main applications of PLA is given in
Table 1:
The global market for PLA blends grows continuously. The global
market for PLA was in 2001 far lower than 4000 t.p.a. In 2003/2004,
the PLA market for lms and non-woven/bre products was about
122,000 t.p.a. [43].
Generally, application possibilities of PLA blends are strongly
inuenced by their production costs, which have been very high
owing to their complex chemical composition but tend to
converge to those of petro-based polymers, partly because of the
high oil price [37,38,42,43,54]. Recent developments in producing

NatureWorks was at that time still called Cargil Dow.

Copolymers are polymers whose molecular chains consist of different monomers (molecules) [44].
7

Cf. therefore also [4648].

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F. Schwark / Journal of Cleaner Production 17 (2009) 644652

4. Method

Table 1
Applications of PLA [34,42,52,53].
Main application areas

Examples

Industrial applications

Agriculture, forestry
Fisheries
Civil engineering and
construction industry

Medical applications

Bonding
Closure
Separation
Scaffold
Capsulation

Packaging and daily

use applications

Bags
Food packaging
Packaging of consumer goods
Food tableware
Bottles
Containers
Decorative parts
Films
Kitchenware
Labels
Laminates
Non-wovens
Toiletries
Carpet

PLA at lower costs have been successful (US$ 12 per kg) and will
thus accelerate their use as commodity plastics [38,42]. Therefore
successful commercialization of PLA blends faces a major challenge in efcient processing and resulting cost reductions
[4,37,40].
3.3. PLA blend technology
Technology to produce PLA blends includes for this scenario
analysis the production process (machinery) itself as well as the
type of production sites where the machinery is located. The
approach therefore comprises also the size and nature of the
producing company.
Blending in general has the goal of cost-efciently developing
new types of polymers that combine the positive characteristics of
the components and eliminate the less positive ones [55]. As
described above, the physical properties of PLA depend mainly on
chemical and phase structures which can be adjusted through
changes in polymerization and processing conditions. One possibility of achieving this is by blending. Blending is more rapid and
cost-efcient than other methods (e.g. chemical modication). One
possibility to improve the mechanical properties of PLA is the usage
of plasticizers to enhance processability, exibility and ductility
[41]. For biodegradable applications, the second component also
needs to be biodegradable, which makes the process in some cases
less economically attractive [49].
There are different types of blending technology. As a scenario
analysis for a particular kind is too detailed for an outline of future
development possibilities, the technologies were subsumed by
a technology group referred to as PLA blend technology.
Thus, as PLA is used as input for PLA blends and as the output
goes to further processing of the blends, the technology as a unit of
analysis for the scenario analysis can be dened as in Fig. 4.
Currently, PLA blend technology is mainly used by small
companies. As a consequence, blends are either developed and
tailored for specic customers (e.g. spin-offs of research institutes) or developed for a general type of application in small
rms. In both cases, PLA blends are still produced on a small
scale. This is in strong contrast to the production of PLA which is
mainly in the hands of NatureWorks, who deliver to most PLAprocessing rms.

The theory described above as a basis for the scenario analysis,

which can be classied as single-case study [56], was adapted to the
case of PLA blend production technology. An extensive literature
review led to a list of main inuence factors, which were veried by
several interviews with experts from industry and research. The
scope of the scenario analysis was limited to the development of
technologies for the production of PLA blends in the European
Union (EU). The reason for limiting it to the EU is a conjoint regulatory framework of the member states. This framework is nevertheless not all-dominant but allows national regulations some
degree of freedom.
Accounting for the opportunity of different development
possibilities, one to three values were attached to every inuence
factor, depending on the categorization in a probable or in an
uncertain future (cf. therefore also Section 5.1). As the development
possibilities of an inuence factor cannot be exhaustively
enumerated, they were chosen in a manner that covers a wide
range of developments. These values were then connected to
consistent combinations by means of a decision tree, taking into
consideration three types of consistency: trend consistency
(compatibility of trends within the chosen time), stakeholder
consistency (requires that the major stakeholders are not placed in
positions they dislike and can change), and outcome consistency
[3]. The outcome of 49 combinations was further clustered to seven
aggregated scenarios. Owing to the lack of an appropriate computer
program for a sufcient cluster analysis, the aggregation was conducted according to the importance of an inuence factor for the
combination. When an inuence factor was regarded as less
important than the other factors for a scenario, it was canceled
from the combination. All resulting combinations with an analogous mix of inuence factor values were combined into a bundle
that was considered as an aggregated scenario.
For a detailed description of scenarios, three aggregated
scenarios were chosen according to the criterion whereby future
opportunities were supposed to cover a wide range of development possibilities of PLA blend technology. Scenario 1 offers
a closed view on the problem of political and economic dependency on oil and the possible resulting political actions. Scenario 2
focuses on social inuence and on a differentiated development of
ecological awareness. Scenario 3 covers the economic view of PLA
blend technology with limited development possibilities. Therefore all three scenarios are archetypical with different theoretical
foci on inuence factors [9]: scenario 1 focuses on politics,
scenario 2 on compatibility with needs and scenario 3 on relative
advantage.
5. Results
5.1. Choice of inuence factors
The choice of inuence factors for the scenario analysis depends
in the rst step on the time horizon which itself is inuenced by the
goal of the analysis. A time frame of roughly three decades is
chosen.
In this framework, all inuence factors contain three dimensions of characteristics as can be seen in Fig. 5: they can be internal/
external, general/technology-specic, and critical/uncritical. The
latter characteristic refers to the range of possible or probable
developments of inuence factors which are referred to as values.
Critical inuence factors have multiple values, whereas uncritical
factors have only one value [57]. As the multiple values of critical
factors cannot completely be narrowed down, a scenario analysis
can only contain a certain number of these values. Therefore
a range of 1 (uncritical factor) to 3 (critical factor) values has been

F. Schwark / Journal of Cleaner Production 17 (2009) 644652

649

Preliminary technologies

Issue of analysis

Downstream technologies

Technologies for the production

of PLA

Group of technologies for

the production of PLA blends

Technologies for further

processing of PLA blends

Fig. 4. Technology for the production of PLA blends in the surrounding technology system (own illustration).

applied. The different values were chosen in a way to include a large

range of development possibilities for the inuence factor.
The outcome of the analysis is depicted in Table 2.
The interrelation of the above-described inuence factors can
also be depicted analogously to Section 2, as in Fig. 6.
5.2. Scenarios for PLA blend technology
5.2.1. Scenario 1: independence of oil
The continuously growing demand for oil and gas as feedstock
for industrial production, transportation and heating causes a tight
supply situation in the European Union. Owing to the increased
worldwide demand, oil prices rise rapidly. Additionally, as the
reserves in the North Sea decrease, the EUs import dependency on
politically instable countries, where state-owned oil and gas
producers control resources, grows dramatically. This development
motivates politicians at EU and national member state level to
increase subsidies for research and development that aims to
replace fossil raw materials for various applications. The European
industry is highly affected by the intended change in supply and
implements adaptations for production as well as for products in
order to use fewer fossil resources in the product life cycle. In
particular, the plastics sector, whose principal feedstock is still oil,
benets widely from the nancial support targeted at stronger
efforts in R&D for alternatives to petro-based polymers. The political subsidies, the fast rise of the oil price, as well as the rising
demand in plastics, encourage plastic producers to develop new
types of polymers, e.g. by using new mixtures for blending, in order
to reduce the fraction of petro-based input.
The increased interest in non-petro-based polymers also fosters
R&D in PLA blend technology. The intense R&D results in an
expansion of possible properties of PLA blends which are applicable
for an extended range of products. The improved characteristics of
PLA blends like strength, heat resistance, durability, and high clarity
make PLA blends attractive for different products. Mechanical and
thermal properties, which enable the processing of PLA blends on
traditional machines, further contribute to the strong attention that
they attract. These excellent characteristics and the high oil price
give rise to substitutions of petro-based polymers by PLA blends in
many products. Examples of these are short-term applications like
pharmaceutical products and goods in the food service sectors as
well as long-term products in electronics, construction and leather
substitutions in the clothing industry.
As a result of the increasing market share of products made of
PLA, the number of PLA-producing companies grows. The production of PLA blends on a large scale in all European countries causes
a strong decrease of production costs owing to learning curves and
economies of scale. The enhanced demand for agricultural

commodities as feedstock rearranges the supply chain of the

polymer sector. Opportunities of synergy effects (e.g. economies of
scope) of both the agricultural and the plastics sector arise and
strenuous efforts are made to reorganize industrial processes of
transportation and processing. Cooperation between both sectors is
intensied, mainly focusing on logistics. Furthermore, the success
of the efcient synergy projects in the agricultural sector, thus on
the input side of PLA producers, makes the PLA producers consider
other synergies and reorganizations. Finally, they integrate PLA
blend technology in their production.
PLA blend technology in the plants of large PLA producers is adapted
to ensure a continuing downstream process of blend production after
PLA production. Geographical transfers complement an adjustment of
the size of the machines for large-scale production. The enlarged
variety of different blends premises a parallel use of different blending
technologies in one plant. On the other hand, technology for special
applications adapted to customers needs remains in small rms that
serve niche markets with small quantities.
5.2.2. Scenario 2: transient eco-markets
Environmental awareness undergoes a strong hype in the EU
population and follows thus a worldwide trend in consumer
sensitization towards health-related and environmental issues.
Lifestyle changes, particularly in large cities in respect of human
health and ecology, which causes a rethinking in topics of pollution,
waste and security in order to reduce the negative impact on
humans and nature. The trend that started in the beginning of the
21st century continues and buying patterns change to a fashionable
attitude towards ecologically friendly products (so-called ecoproducts). The whole life cycle is taken into consideration, and
labels of ecologically friendly products represent a considerable
marketing advantage for rms. Only some market segments can
substantially benet from eco-products, however, such as the food,
packaging, and health care sectors. Others, like the automotive and
the electronics sectors, do not experience an analogous demand for
an environmentally friendly product life cycle. Thus, buying
behaviors fundamentally differ between lifestyle-products and
products requiring a large investment.
The increased environmental awareness fades after some years,
and the ecological compatibility of products becomes less important. Other attributes of products come to the fore, and rms pay
less attention to the use of environmentally friendly materials. The
signicance of environmental compatibility reaches a level where
general concerns about pollution are theoretically accepted, but the
buying behavior is in all sectors primarily inuenced by convenience considerations.
The greater environmental awareness lowers the price elasticity
for eco-products during this time. As a consequence, rms start

Influence factor

General / Technology specific

Internal / External

Fig. 5. Dimensions of inuence factors [5759].

Critical / Uncritical

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F. Schwark / Journal of Cleaner Production 17 (2009) 644652

Table 2
Main inuence factors and their characteristics (own illustration).
Inuence factors

Degree of impact
PLA-technology

General/technology-specic

Internal/external

Critical/uncritical

Application possibilities of PLA-blends

Policy & regulation
Price of PLA
Oil price
Environment awareness and
market for eco-products
Demand for plastics

3
2
2
2
2

Technology-specic
General
Technology-specic
General
Technology-specic

Internal
External
External
External
External

Critical
Critical
Critical
Critical
Critical

General

External

Uncritical

Degree of impact: 1 (low) to 3 (high): all inuence factors are considered as important. Therefore the degree of impact is to be regarded as relative compared with the other 5
factors.

actively marketing the ecological friendliness of their products. The

polymer sector reacts to this development by an expansion of the
utilization of biopolymers. As both biodegradability and renewable
feedstock of the materials are important issues for marketing,
biopolymers with both attributes are particularly used. PLA blends
meet both conditions and are thus subject to increased R&D that
enhances properties and increases application possibilities for
lifestyle products. PLA blend technology cannot, however, be
sufciently ameliorated and PLA blends show a lower application
range in comparison with other biopolymers (such as starch-based
plastics). Furthermore, some required characteristics could only be
obtained by blending with petro-based and/or non-biodegradable
polymers, which in turn diminishes rms marketing effects and
sales. Thus, PLA blends remain a niche material that cannot keep up
with other biopolymers and PLA blend technology continues to
serve a limited market.
The temporary increase of PLA blend production causes a small
reduction of production costs because of learning curves and better
production lines. Nevertheless, as environmental awareness levels
off, the demand for PLA blends diminishes. The variety of PLA
blends still remains an important source for specialized products
that require characteristics where PLA blends have shown considerably better attributes than other plastics. PLA blend technology
thus remains at the level of medium-sized rms. R&D in those rms
is mostly concentrated on a specic group of applications as
demand becomes more sophisticated and production requires
more specialization in types of blends. The machines for PLA blend
production itself increase their throughput, but no fundamental
changes occur.

too high, and petro-based polymers persist in covering the bulk of

the polymer market. Despite continued R&D in PLA blends, their
production costs remain uncompetitive, and the range of application possibilities stays very small.
Additionally, the inconsistent legal framework of the EU in
terms of environmental issues, as for example landlls, hampers an
advancement of R&D for biopolymers. The overall aim to tighten
regulatory framework concerning biodegradability of products or
renewability of feedstock remains inconsistent. National interests
dominate discussions and the resulting uncertainty about future
regulations lets rms postpone costly R&D in biopolymers. Industry
faces the challenge to respond to all regulations while maintaining
economic production. Therefore the polymers sector uses PLA
blends only for applications where their advantages outweigh the
additional costs, such as agriculture, packaging, or when cost
savings can take place in other areas like the amount of labor
needed.
PLA blend producing rms specialize in particular types of PLA
blends that cover characteristics suitable for a large number of
applications. Firms remain specialized and concentrate research on
a limited amount of PLA blends. They maintain either small and
entrepreneurial structured rms or are spin-offs of research institutes. Large scale PLA blend production does not take place and the
customization of PLA production technology to the specic users
requirement remains. This customization is, however, mostly
a minor adaptation of the technology. PLA blend technology
continues to serve niche markets and is thus specialized in the
production of customized blends.
6. Discussion

5.2.3. Scenario 3: domination of petro-based polymers

Although the oil price remains at a high level and even
increases, renewable resources do not compete with oil as feedstock. Production costs for plastics with renewable feedstock stay

The approach to combining scenario analysis with diffusion

theory offers the major advantage of a joint consideration of
diffusion research and of the inclusion of uncertainty and different

Politics and regulation

Env. awareness /
market for eco-products
PLA-BlendTechnology
today

Application possibilities

PLA-BlendTechnology
in the future

Oil price

Price of PLA

Demand for plastics

Fig. 6. Inuence factors on the development of the market and technology for PLA blends (own illustration).

F. Schwark / Journal of Cleaner Production 17 (2009) 644652

development possibilities in the anticipatory process. It offers the

opportunity to specify the inuence factors that have a strong
impact on the diffusion of a technology for the purpose of scenario
analysis.
The differentiation of external inuence factors and the
autonomous development of a technology enhance the approach
and it is benecial for the understanding of broad patterns of
technological change that leads to specic strategic implications
for technology management [27]. Furthermore, the application of
the perception of attributes as ex ante predictors of diffusion,
which have been used in the inner circle of Fig. 3, is also suggested
by Ostlund [18].
Additionally, the exclusion of some critical assumptions of
diffusion theory represents an advantage of the approach. Ref. [60]
species three assumptions that are strongly improved by my
approach: he argues that in the diffusion model innovations remain
unchanged and do not undergo further development (thus no
internal development is regarded) and that the process of adoption
is distinct from the process of innovation (the adoption of a technology occurs after the development: there is no overlap of these
two phases). He also states that the adoption of one innovation is
independent of the adoption of others (analyzing a technology
adoption, the surrounding technologies and possible application
barriers are not considered). As none of the three assumptions
corresponds to reality, my approach excludes them. Therefore the
model enhances the grade of reality and offers many application
possibilities for technology management.
Consequently, the advantage of this approach is the discovery of
development possibilities of a technology on the basis of knowledge about technology adoption developed by diffusion theory.
This approach has, however, a number of limitations. Addressing
the perceived characteristics of an innovation, at least two
perceptions are generally included in the making of a scenario
analysis, the one of the scenario-maker and the one of possible
adopters imagined by the scenario-maker. A possible conict of
interests might inuence the outcome of the scenario analysis. The
gathering of perceptions concerning a technology prior to its
adoption is also usually difcult unless special cases such as prior
knowledge about the innovation occur [18].
The described approach has a strong theoretical background but
needs to be supported by practical implementation. It is also less
clear whether the approach covers all issues that concern the
interest of a technology manager or if a technology scenario
approach needs to be enlarged in an additional direction in order to
specify technology managers needs of the scenarios completely.
The application of the method to biopolymer technology poses
a very good possibility, as it offers a wide range of development
possibilities that cannot be covered by a single forecast method. Yet,
as with every scenario analysis, this analysis is based on facts and
on subjective interpretations of them. Additionally, the large
number of inuence factors and their possible development
possibilities cannot be fully included in the analysis. The fact that
information about PLA blend technology is rare also impedes
a complete presentation of the technology and its development
possibilities.
7. Conclusion
The approach to combining exploratory scenario analysis and
diffusion theory describes an advanced method of clearly dened
inuence factors for technology scenarios and thereby using
diffusion theory in an ex ante manner. In this way technology
scenario analysis as a technique is greatly improved. The enhanced
method is very advantageous for policy-makers as well as for rms
in elaborating a new technologys current position in terms of
possible future developments.

651

The future of PLA blend technology is strongly coupled with

political, economical and social developments and depends heavily
on its internal development expressed in production costs and
application possibilities of PLA blends. Geographical and rmrelated changes of the technology are possible in the course of time.
In general, PLA blend technology has a good chance of capturing
a considerable share in the market, given advantageous technological, political and economic conditions. In order to attain
a desirable future state, normative scenario analysis for political
and economic actions can be applied by policy-makers to dene
necessary steps. These may imply, for instance, increased R&D
subsidies for renewable resources and ecological minimal/maximal
requirements for production processes or products. A detailed costbenet analysis might give important insights for the approach. To
date France and Germany have tangible measures for bioplastics
which can be used as basis for further evaluation.

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Florentine Schwark studied industrial engineering and management at the Universitaet Karlsruhe (TH), Germany, and the Universite catholique de Louvain, Belgium.
She wrote her diploma thesis in 2006 at the Department of Management, Technology
and Economics (D-MTEC) at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich
about scenario analysis for new technologies and biopolymer technology. Florentine
Schwark has working experience in Germany, Japan and Switzerland. Currently she is
taking a PhD in resource economics with the focus on energy and innovation at DMTEC at ETH Zurich.