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Model
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
1 / 68
Transitional Dynamics
(1)
= .
k
s
(2)
C (t ) = (1 s ) Y (t )
(3)
Consumption is given by
(4)
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Transitional Dynamics
k(t+1)
45
sf(k(t))+(1)k(t)
k*
k*
k(t)
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Transitional Dynamics
Transitional Dynamics
Equilibrium path: not simply steady state, but entire path of capital
stock, output, consumption and factor prices.
In engineering and physical sciences, equilibrium is point of rest of
dynamical system, thus the steady state equilibrium.
In economics, non-steady-state behavior also governed by optimizing
behavior of households and rms and market clearing.
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Transitional Dynamics
(5)
x (t ) Rn and G : Rn Rn .
x = G (x ) .
x is sometimes referred to as an equilibrium point of (5).
We will refer to x as a stationary point or a steady state of (5).
Denition A steady state x is (locally) asymptotically stable if there
exists an open set B (x ) x such that for any solution
{x (t )}t=0 to (5) with x (0) B (x ), we have x (t ) x .
Moreover, x is globally asymptotically stable if for all
x (0) Rn , for any solution {x (t )}t=0 , we have x (t ) x .
Daron Acemoglu (MIT)
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Transitional Dynamics
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Transitional Dynamics
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Transitional Dynamics
(6)
(7)
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Transitional Dynamics
f (k ) > f (0) + kf (k ) kf (k ) ,
(8)
g (k ) (0, 1) .
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Transitional Dynamics
k (t + 1) k = g (k (t )) g (k )
=
< 0
k (t )
g (k ) dk,
First line follows by subtracting (7) from (6), second line uses the
fundamental theorem of calculus, and third line follows from the
observation that g (k ) > 0 for all k.
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Transitional Dynamics
f (k (t ))
k (t )
f (k )
> s
k
= 0,
= s
k (t + 1) (k (t ) , k ).
k (t + 1) (k , k (t )).
stable.
Daron Acemoglu (MIT)
11 / 68
Transitional Dynamics
12 / 68
Transitional Dynamics
k(t+1)
45
k*
k(0)
k*
k(0)
k(t)
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x (t + 1) x (t ) = g (x (t )) .
(9)
x (t + t ) x (t ) t g (x (t )) ,
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t 0
x (t + t ) x (t )
= x (t ) g (x (t )) ,
t
(10)
where
dx (t )
dt
Equation (10) is a dierential equation representing (9) for the case
in which t and t + 1 is small.
x (t )
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(11)
K (t )
,
L (t )
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=
=
K (t ) L (t )
,
K (t ) L (t )
K (t )
n.
K (t )
(12)
October 29, 2009.
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18 / 68
output
(+n)k(t)
f(k(t))
f(k*)
consumption
sf(k(t))
sf(k*)
investment
0
k*
Courtesy of Princeton University Press. Used with permission.
Figure 2.8 in Acemoglu, Daron. Introduction to Modern Economic Growth.
Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009. ISBN: 9780691132921.
k(t)
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(13)
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k ()
k ()
k ()
> 0,
< 0 and
<0
s
n
y ()
y ()
y ()
> 0,
< 0and
< 0.
> 0,
s
> 0,
New result is higher n, also reduces the capital-labor ratio and output
per capita.
means there is more labor to use capital, which only accumulates
slowly, thus the equilibrium capital-labor ratio ends up lower.
Daron Acemoglu (MIT)
21 / 68
22 / 68
k(t)
k(t)
k(t)
k*
s
f(k(t))
(+g+n)
k(t)
23 / 68
k (t ) k .
Figure: plots the right-hand side of (12) and makes it clear that
whenever k < k , k > 0 and whenever k > k , k < 0, so k
monotonically converges to k .
Daron Acemoglu (MIT)
24 / 68
Cobb-Douglas Example
ln (FK /FL ) 1
,
(14)
ln (K /L)
F is required to be homothetic, so that FK /FL is only a function of
K /L.
For the Cobb-Douglas production function
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Cobb-Douglas Example
=
=
R (t ) K (t )
Y (t )
FK (K (t ), L (t )) K (t )
Y (t )
A [K (t )]1 [L (t )]1 K (t )
A [K (t )] [L (t )]1
= .
Similarly, the share of labor is L (t ) = 1 .
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Cobb-Douglas Example
n+
s
11
or
k =
sA
n+
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Cobb-Douglas Example
x (t ) = (1 ) sA (1 ) (n + ) x (t ) ,
General solution
sA
sA
x (t ) =
exp ( (1 ) (n + ) t ) .
+ x (0)
n+
n+
In terms of the capital-labor ratio
k (t ) =
11
sA
sA
1
exp ( (1 ) (n + ) t )
.
+ [k (0)]
n+
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Cobb-Douglas Example
Intuitive:
higher , less diminishing returns, slows down rate at which marginal
and average product of capital declines, reduces rate of adjustment to
steady state.
smaller and smaller n: slow down the adjustment of capital per
worker and thus the rate of transitional dynamics.
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Y (t ) = F [K (t ) , L (t ) , A (t )]
1 1
1
AH (t ) (AK (t ) K (t )) + (1 ) (AL (t ) L (t ))
,
AH (t ) > 0, AK (t ) > 0 and AL (t ) > 0 are three dierent types of
technological change
(0, 1) is a distribution parameter,
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FK
AK (t ) K (t )
=
1
1 ,
FL
( 1 ) AL ( t ) L ( t )
Thus, indeed have
ln (FK /FL )
=
ln (K /L)
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Cobb-Douglas
Y (t ) = AH (t ) AK (t ) K (t ) + (1 ) AH (t ) AL (t ) L (t ) .
Y (t ) = AH (t ) min {AK (t ) K (t ) ; (1 ) AL (t ) L (t )} .
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Sustained Growth
(15)
(16)
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Sustained Growth
= sA n.
k (t )
Therefore, if sA n > 0, there will be sustained growth in the
capital-labor ratio.
From (15), this implies that there will be sustained growth in output
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Sustained Growth
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Sustained Growth
(An)k(t)
k(t+1)
45
k(t)
k(0)
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Sustained Growth
Unattractive features:
1
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Balanced Growth
Balanced Growth I
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Balanced Growth
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
Labor
Capital
40%
30%
20%
10%
1994
1989
1984
1979
1974
1969
1964
1959
1954
1949
1944
1939
1934
1929
0%
Growth.
Figure 2.11 in Acemoglu, Daron. Introduction to Modern Economic
Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009. ISBN: 9780691132921.
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Balanced Growth
Balanced Growth II
Note capital share in national income is about 1/3, while the labor
share is about 2/3.
Ignoring land, not a major factor of production.
But in poor countries land is a major factor of production.
This pattern often makes economists choose AK 1/3 L2/3 .
Main advantage from our point of view is that balanced growth is the
same as a steady-state in transformed variables
i.e., we will again have k = 0, but the denition of k will change.
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Balanced Growth
F [K (t ) , L (t ) , A (t )] = A (t ) F [K (t ) , L (t )] ,
F [K (t ) , L (t ) , A (t )] = F [A (t ) K (t ) , L (t )] .
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Balanced Growth
Y
Y
Y
L
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Balanced Growth
F [K (t ) , L (t ) , A (t )] = AH (t ) F [AK (t ) K (t ) , AL (t ) L (t )] , (17)
Nests the constant elasticity of substitution production function
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Uzawas Theorem
Uzawas Theorem I
R (t ) K (t )
w (t ) L (t )
and K (t )
.
Y (t )
Y (t )
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Uzawas Theorem
Uzawas Theorem II
Theorem
(Uzawa I) Suppose L (t ) = exp (nt ) L (0),
Y (t ) = F (K (t ) , L (t ) , A (t )),
K (t ) = Y (t ) C (t ) K (t ), and F is CRS in K and L.
Suppose for < , Y (t ) /Y (t ) = gY > 0, K (t ) /K (t ) = gK > 0 and
C (t ) /C (t ) = gC > 0. Then,
1
2
gY = gK = gC ; and
for any t , F can be represented as
Y (t ) = F (K (t ) , A (t ) L (t )) ,
where A (t ) R+ , F : R2+ R+ is homogeneous of degree 1, and
Daron Acemoglu (MIT)
A (t ) /A (t ) = g = gY n.
Economic Growth Lecture 2
45 / 68
Uzawas Theorem
some < .
(gK + ) K (t ) = Y (t ) C (t ) .
Then,
46 / 68
Uzawas Theorem
for all t .
C ( ) > 0.
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Uzawas Theorem
t can be written as
exp gY t Y (t )
= F exp gK t K (t ) , exp n t L (t ) , A
Y (t ) = F e (t )(gY gK ) K (t ) , e (t )(gY n ) L (t ) , A .
From part 1, gY = gK , therefore
Y (t ) = F K (t ) , exp t (gY n ) L (t ) , A .
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Uzawas Theorem
= F [K (t ) , A (t ) L (t )] ,
with
A (t )
= gY n
A (t )
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Uzawas Theorem
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Uzawas Theorem
Stronger Theorem
Theorem
(Uzawas Theorem II) Suppose that all of the hypothesis in Uzawas
Theorem are satised, so that F : R2+ A R+ has a representation of
the form F (K (t ) , A (t ) L (t )) with A (t ) R+ and
A (t ) /A (t ) = g = gY n. In addition, suppose that factor markets are
competitive and that for all t T , the rental rate satises R (t ) = R (or
equivalently, K (t ) = K ). Then, denoting the partial derivatives of F and
F with respect to their rst two arguments by F K , F L , FK and FL , we have
F K K (t ) , L (t ) , A (t ) = FK (K (t ) , A (t ) L (t )) and
(18)
FL K (t ) , L (t ) , A (t ) = A (t ) FL (K (t ) , A (t ) L (t )) .
Moreover, if (18) holds and factor markets are competitive, then
R (t ) = R (and K (t ) = K ) for all t T .
Daron Acemoglu (MIT)
51 / 68
Uzawas Theorem
Intuition
Suppose the labor-augmenting representation of the aggregate
production function applies.
Then note that with competitive factor markets, as t ,
R (t ) K (t )
Y (t )
K (t ) F [K (t ) , A (t ) L (t )]
=
Y (t )
K (t )
= K ,
K (t )
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Uzawas Theorem
this asymmetry
But this intuition does not provide a reason for why technology
But if technology did not take this form, an asymptotic path with
53 / 68
Uzawas Theorem
Interpretation
Distressing result:
Balanced growth is only possible under a very stringent assumption.
Provides no reason why technological change should take this form.
54 / 68
Uzawas Theorem
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Uzawas Theorem
Further Intuition
F [AK (t ) K (t ) , AL (t ) L (t )].
The fact that the capital-output ratio is constant in steady state (or
the fact that capital accumulates) implies that K (t ) must grow at
the same rate as AL (t ) L (t ).
Thus balanced growth can only be possible if AK (t ) is asymptotically
constant.
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of the form
Y (t ) = F [K (t ) , A (t ) L (t )] ,
Moreover, suppose
A (t )
= g,
A (t )
(19)
L (t )
= n.
L (t )
Again using the constant saving rate
K (t ) = sF [K (t ) , A (t ) L (t )] K (t ) .
Daron Acemoglu (MIT)
(20)
57 / 68
K (t )
.
A (t ) L (t )
(21)
=
g n.
k (t )
K (t )
(22)
Y (t )
K (t )
,1
y (t )
=F
A (t ) L (t )
A (t ) L (t )
f (k (t )) .
58 / 68
(23)
= A (t ) f (k (t )) .
Clearly if y (t ) is constant, income per capita, y (t ), will grow over
time, since A (t ) is growing.
Thus should not look for steady states where income per capita is
constant, but for balanced growth paths, where income per capita
transformed model.
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k (t )
=
( + g + n ) ,
k (t )
k (t )
(24)
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(25)
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Equation (25), emphasizes that now total savings, sf (k ), are used for
replenishing the capital stock for three distinct reasons:
1
2
3
investments to be equal to ( + g + n ) k.
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k (A (0) , s, , n )
n
and also
y (A (0) , s, , n, t )
A (0)
y (A (0) , s, , n, t )
n
for each t .
Daron Acemoglu (MIT)
k (A (0) , s, , n )
> 0,
s
k (A (0) , s, , n )
< 0 and
< 0,
= 0,
y (A (0) , s, , n, t )
> 0,
s
y (A (0) , s, , n, t )
< 0,
< 0 and
> 0,
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64 / 68
Comparative Dynamics
Comparative Dynamics
Comparative Dynamics I
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Comparative Dynamics
Comparative Dynamics
k(t)
k(t)
k(t)
k*
k**
f(k(t))
(+g+n)
s
k(t)
s
f(k(t))
(+g+n)
k(t)
Figure: Dynamics following an increase in the savings rate from s to s . The solid
arrows show the dynamics for the initial steady state, while the dashed arrows
Daron Acemoglu (MIT)
66 / 68
Comparative Dynamics
Comparative Dynamics
Comparative Dynamics II
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Conclusions
Conclusions
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