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May25,2016
SurajitPal
surajitpal@plindia.com
+912266322259
Rating
Price
TargetPrice
ImpliedUpside
Sensex
Nifty
Reduce
Rs495
Rs497
.4%
25,305
7,749
(PricesasonMay24,2016)
Tradingdata
MarketCap.(Rsbn)
Shareso/s(m)
3MAvg.Dailyvalue(Rsm)
Majorshareholders
Promoters
Foreign
DomesticInst.
Public&Other
StockPerformance
(%)
1M
6M
Absolute
(6.9)
(22.3)
Relative
(4.8)
(20.5)
HowwedifferfromConsensus
EPS(Rs)
PL
Cons.
2017
25.6
22.2
2018
27.6
26.1
397.4
803.0
90
37.57%
23.10%
12.40%
26.90%
12M
(26.6)
(17.1)
%Diff.
15.7
5.8
PricePerformance(RIC:CIPL.BO,BB:CIPLAIN)
Cipla reported sales, adj. EBITDA andPAT of Rs32.1bn,Rs1.6bn and Rs0.8bn way
belowtoourestimatesofRs33.1bn,Rs6.3bnandRs4.5bninQ4FY16.Adj.EBITDA
increased by 5% YoY with EBITDA margin of 13% vs our estimates of 19% due to
lowersalesinSouthAfricaandhigherR&Dcostsof8.2%ofsales(generally,R&D
costs were 56% of sales). The companys revenues were impacted due to
depreciation of South African Rand, changes in accounting policy of South Africa
revenues and lower than expected sales in partnership products (Pulmicort,
Nexium) in US. While we expected India formulations to gain in Q4FY16 due to
changesinaccountingpolicyforrecognisingsalesinQ3FY16,Ciplassalesgrowth
inIndiaformulationsremainmutedat5%QoQinQ4FY16.Webelievethatbanon
combinationdrugsandadditionofdrugsinnewNLEMlistswillcontinuetoimpact
thecompanysIndiasalesinFY17E18E.
EstimatedkeycontributionsfromUSgenericsonPulmicortandNexiumcontinued
to disappoint post Q1FY16. Nexium contributed US$78m in Q1FY16 visavis
contribution of US$106m in FY16. With sizeable market share (42% currently) of
patent owner, we expect Nexium price continues to erode with increasing
genericisation and approval of new generics (currently 7 generics). We expect
revenuesfromPulmicortpartnershiptobeslowerthanNexiumasgenericisaitonof
inhalers take longer time than other generics. We revise our earnings estimates
witha)newNLEMtoreducerealisationinIndiaformulations,b)weakvisibilityof
pipelineofkeygenerics(inUS/EU)b)uncertaintyoverlaunchofSeretideinUK,c)
issue of substitutability of Seretide (like peer receiving noninterchangeable
Seretide) and d) strong volatility of currencies in EMs and Euro (90% of revenues
fromEMsandEurope).
Withintegrationofgrowinguncertaintyoverexportbusinessandweakvisibilityof
pipeline, we decrease our earnings estimates by 4% and 2%for FY17E and FY18E,
respectively.WemaintainourrecommendationtoReduceandreduceTPby2%to
Rs497(fromRs506).
Keyfinancials(Y/eMarch)
Revenues(Rsm)
Growth(%)
EBITDA(Rsm)
PAT(Rsm)
EPS(Rs)
Growth(%)
NetDPS(Rs)
2015
109,570
8.5
17,733
12,554
15.6
(9.5)
2.3
2016
133,725
22.0
21,953
15,059
18.7
19.9
2.3
2017E
148,180
10.8
30,673
20,582
25.6
36.8
2.3
2018E
166,743
12.5
35,016
22,190
27.6
7.8
2.3
2015
16.2
12.0
11.6
3.7
23.1
31.7
3.7
0.5
2016
16.4
13.3
10.9
3.3
20.1
26.4
3.4
0.5
2017E
20.7
15.5
13.3
2.9
14.1
19.3
2.7
0.5
2018E
21.0
14.1
12.8
2.6
12.3
17.9
2.4
0.5
Source:Bloomberg
May16
Mar16
Jan16
Nov15
Sep15
Jul15
May15
(Rs)
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Profitability&Valuation
EBITDAmargin(%)
RoE(%)
RoCE(%)
EV/sales(x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
PE(x)
P/BV(x)
Netdividendyield(%)
Source:CompanyData;PLResearch
PrabhudasLilladherPvt.Ltd.and/oritsassociates(the'Firm')doesand/orseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresultinvestorsshouldbeawarethat
theFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthereport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.
Pleaserefertoimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimersattheendofthereport
Q4FY16ResultUpdate
OneoffscauseRevenue,earningsmiss;Advairremainelusive
Cipla
Keytakeawaysfrompostresultconferencecall
CiplaguidedforfilingofANDAonAdvairMDIinUSinFY17EwithfocusonAB
rated approval which will allow retailer to replace patented drug with Ciplas
generic. Till date, there is no filing on ANDA for ABrated approval in Advair
(MDI/DPI). Management expects its data from clinical trial in Europe will be
enoughtogainapprovalfromUSFDA
While the management have guided for Advair DPI generic launch in US in
FY19E,thecompanyhasyettobeginclinicaltrialsbeforeitsfilingofANDAinUS.
They however indicated that Seretide generic is currently under active
consideration of UK MHRA and possibility of approval in near term with weak
visibility of substitutability of its generic with patented Seretide in UK.
ManagementhoweverisconfidenttoreceiveonlysubstitutableapprovalinUK
innearterm(probablyinFY17E).WeassumeCiplasapprovalstatusofgSeretide
to be similar to its peers generic which is also unsubstitutable. Hence, Mylan
haschosentofocusmoreonprivatemarketthanNHSbusinesswhichistender
driven. With no plan of sales team to focus on private market, CIplas current
plantofocusonNHStenderbusinesswithnosubstitutability,inourview,will
notenhancesubstantialrevenuesasassumedbytheconsensusestimates.
AcquisitionofInvagenPharmaandExelonPharmacompletedandincorporated
25daysofsalesinQ4FY16.Withtheacquisitionofthetwocompanies,Ciplato
gainrevenuesofUS$250m(overallrevenuesUS$321minFY16)with40ANDAs
inUSmarketandpipelineofadditional35ANDAspendinginUSFDA
Forex loan has been taken to complete the US acquisitions of Invagen and
Exelanat2%interest+LiborinUSD.Currentnetdebt/equitratiois0.44x
R&Dexpectstobestableat88.5%ofsalesinFY17E,upfrom6.5%inFY16due
tofasttrackofkeymolecules,clinicaltrialsandbiosimilars
May25,2016
Exhibit1:
Cipla
Q4FY16ResultOverview(Rsm)
Y/eMarch
Q4FY16
Q4FY15
YoYgr.(%)
Q3FY16
FY16
FY15
YoYgr.(%)
NetSales
32,067
29,807
7.6
30,273
133,725
108,824
22.9
RawMaterial
14,160
11,588
22.2
12,338
51,184
41,897
22.2
44.2
38.9
40.8
38.3
38.5
6,591
5,147
28.1
5,862
24,471
19,737
19.4
18.3
18.1
6.7
8,328
36,118
30,204
27.5
27.0
27.8
%ofNetSales
PersonnelCost
%ofNetSales
24.0
20.6
17.3
9,725
9,115
%ofNetSales
30.3
30.6
TotalExpenditure
30,476
25,850
17.9
26,528
111,772
91,837
21.7
1,591
3,957
(59.8)
3,744
21,953
16,987
29.2
5.0
13.3
12.4
16.4
15.6
Others
EBITDA
Margin(%)
Depreciation
EBIT
OtherIncome
19.6
1,414
1,357
4.2
1,375
5,417
5,047
7.3
176
2,600
(93.2)
2,370
16,536
11,940
38.5
1,146
1,732
(33.8)
1,586
5,147
6,286
(18.1)
Interest
368
434
(15.2)
230
1,613
1,683
(4.1)
PBT
955
3,898
(75.5)
3,726
20,070
16,543
21.3
ExtraOrd.Inc./Exps.
185
271
TotalTaxes
(39)
1,030
174
615
735
120
4,396
4,000
ETR(%)
(4.1)
26.4
3.2
21.9
24.2
ReportedPAT
809
2,597
(68.9)
3,432
15,059
11,808
27.5
Q4FY16
Q4FY15
YoYgr.(%)
Q3FY16
FY16
FY15
YoYgr.(%)
12,580
10,860
15.8
11,940
51,110
47,480
7.6
39.2
36.4
37.7
38.2
43.5
19,487
18,947
2.8
19,760
82,615
61,586
62.3
61.8
56.5
7.6
31,700
133,725
109,066
NA
9.9
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch
Exhibit2:
Geographicbreakupofrevenues(Rsm)
Y/eMarch
Domesticmarket
%ofSales
Internationalmarket(Exports)
%ofSales
Total
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch
60.8
63.6
32,067
29,807
34.1
22.6
May25,2016
Cipla
Exhibit3: Indiaformulations,growth
Sales(Rsm)
YoYgr(%)(RHS)
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Q4FY16
Q2FY16
Q3FY16
Q1FY16
Q3FY15
Q4FY15
Q2FY15
Q4FY14
Q1FY15
Q3FY14
Q1FY14
Q2FY14
Q4FY13
Q2FY13
Q3FY13
Q1FY13
Q3FY12
Q4FY12
Q2FY12
Q1FY12
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch
Exhibit4: Exportformulations,growth
Sales(Rsm)
YoYgr(%)(RHS)
25,000
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Q4FY16
Q2FY16
Q3FY16
Q1FY16
Q3FY15
Q4FY15
Q2FY15
Q4FY14
Q1FY15
Q3FY14
Q1FY14
Q2FY14
Q4FY13
Q2FY13
Q3FY13
Q1FY13
Q3FY12
Q4FY12
Q2FY12
Q1FY12
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch
Exhibit5: APISales,growth
Sales(Rsm)
YoYgr(%)(RHS)
3,000
80.0
2,500
60.0
2,000
40.0
1,500
20.0
1,000
0.0
Q4FY16
Q3FY16
Q2FY16
Q1FY16
Q4FY15
Q3FY15
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q4FY14
Q3FY14
Q2FY14
Q1FY14
Q4FY13
Q3FY13
Q2FY13
Q1FY13
Q4FY12
40.0
Q3FY12
Q2FY12
20.0
Q1FY12
500
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch
May25,2016
Cipla
Exhibit6: OverallSales,growth
Sales(Rsm)
YoYgr(%)(RHS)
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Q4FY16
Q2FY16
Q3FY16
Q1FY16
Q3FY15
Q4FY15
Q2FY15
Q4FY14
Q1FY15
Q3FY14
Q1FY14
Q2FY14
Q4FY13
Q2FY13
Q3FY13
Q1FY13
Q3FY12
Q4FY12
Q2FY12
Q1FY12
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch
Exhibit7: EBITDA,margin
EBITDA(Rsm)
Margin(%)(RHS)
12,000
35.0
10,000
30.0
25.0
8,000
20.0
6,000
15.0
4,000
10.0
2,000
5.0
Q1FY12
Q2FY12
Q3FY12
Q4FY12
Q1FY13
Q2FY13
Q3FY13
Q4FY13
Q1FY14
Q2FY14
Q3FY14
Q4FY14
Q1FY15
Q2FY15
Q3FY15
Q4FY15
Q1FY16
Q2FY16
Q3FY16
Q4FY16
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch
Exhibit8: Adj.PAT,growth
PAT(Rsm)
YoYgr(%)(RHS)
7,000
150.0
6,000
100.0
5,000
4,000
50.0
3,000
0.0
2,000
50.0
1,000
100.0
Q1FY12
Q2FY12
Q3FY12
Q4FY12
Q1FY13
Q2FY13
Q3FY13
Q4FY13
Q1FY14
Q2FY14
Q3FY14
Q4FY14
Q1FY15
Q2FY15
Q3FY15
Q4FY15
Q1FY16
Q2FY16
Q3FY16
Q4FY16
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch
May25,2016
IncomeStatement(Rsm)
Y/eMarch
2015
NetRevenue
RawMaterialExpenses
GrossProfit
EmployeeCost
OtherExpenses
EBITDA
Depr.&Amortization
NetInterest
OtherIncome
ProfitbeforeTax
TotalTax
ProfitafterTax
ExOditems/Min.Int.
Adj.PAT
Avg.SharesO/S(m)
EPS(Rs.)
109,570
41,897
67,673
19,737
30,204
17,733
5,047
1,683
6,286
17,288
4,000
13,288
228
12,554
803.0
15.6
2016
2017E
2018E
133,725
51,184
82,541
24,471
36,118
21,953
5,417
1,613
5,147
20,070
4,396
15,674
374
15,059
803.4
18.7
148,180
50,011
98,169
26,672
40,824
30,673
3,826
5,064
5,301
27,085
5,959
21,126
544
20,582
803.0
25.6
166,743
54,191
112,551
29,180
48,355
35,016
4,065
4,708
5,407
31,651
8,862
22,789
598
22,190
803.0
27.6
Cipla
BalanceSheetAbstract(Rsm)
Y/eMarch
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
107,892
17,018
6,783
131,693
48,521
25,585
6,398
47,003
5,643
66,372
25,011
4,187
131,693
118,574
51,914
8,235
178,723
52,979
55,114
7,569
53,222
8,714
73,900
29,393
7,145
176,029
146,184
42,197
7,810
196,191
59,200
57,869
9,664
60,760
5,870
87,023
32,132
8,698
196,191
168,374
39,233
7,112
214,719
65,037
60,763
12,351
65,970
4,862
93,677
32,569
10,598
214,719
QuarterlyFinancials(Rsm)
Y/eMarch
Q1FY16
Q2FY16
Q3FY16
Q4FY16
33,617
6,987
20.8
1,340
503
1,166
6,311
1,812
4,312
4,312
30,273
3,744
12.4
1,375
230
1,586
3,726
120
3,432
3,432
32,067
1,591
5.0
1,414
368
1,146
955
(39)
809
809
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
IndiaFormulations
47,480
Exports
55,690
APIs
5,896
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch.
51,589
75,532
7,782
57,543
81,646
7,393
63,972
92,938
7,984
Shareholder'sFunds
TotalDebt
OtherLiabilities
TotalLiabilities
NetFixedAssets
Goodwill
Investments
NetCurrentAssets
Cash&Equivalents
OtherCurrentAssets
CurrentLiabilities
OtherAssets
TotalAssets
CashFlowAbstract(Rsm)
Y/eMarch
C/FfromOperations
C/FfromInvesting
C/FfromFinancing
Inc./Dec.inCash
OpeningCash
ClosingCash
FCFF
FCFE
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
18,364
(16,095)
(2,984)
(715)
1,752
1,037
(1,254)
3,285
15,053
(8,297)
(3,684)
3,072
5,643
8,714
11,829
46,725
15,054
(9,353)
(8,545)
(2,845)
8,714
5,870
8,025
(1,692)
17,621
(8,968)
(9,661)
(1,008)
5,870
4,862
14,537
11,573
KeyFinancialMetrics
Y/eMarch
Growth
2015
2016
2017E
Revenue(%)
EBITDA(%)
PAT(%)
EPS(%)
8.5
(16.9)
(9.6)
(9.5)
22.0
23.8
20.0
19.9
10.8
39.7
36.7
36.8
12.5
14.2
7.8
7.8
20.7
13.9
13.3
15.5
21.0
13.3
12.8
14.1
0.2
261
0.2
257
19.3
2.7
14.1
2.9
17.9
2.4
12.3
2.6
22.0
19.6
4.4
(8.2)
28.0
17.1
4.4
52.2
EBITDAMargin(%)
PATMargin(%)
RoCE(%)
RoE(%)
BalanceSheet
NetDebt:Equity
NetWrkngCap.(days)
Valuation
PER(x)
P/B(x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
EV/Sales(x)
EarningsQuality
37,768
9,630
25.5
1,288
514
1,249
9,078
2,503
6,506
6,506
Profitability
NetRevenue
EBITDA
%ofrevenue
Depr.&Amortization
NetInterest
OtherIncome
ProfitbeforeTax
TotalTax
ProfitafterTax
Adj.PAT
16.2
11.5
11.6
12.0
16.4
11.3
10.9
13.3
0.1
259
0.4
235
31.7
3.7
23.1
3.7
26.4
3.4
20.1
3.3
Eff.TaxRate
23.1
OtherInc/PBT
36.4
Eff.Depr.Rate(%)
6.8
FCFE/PAT
26.2
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch.
21.9
25.6
6.8
310.3
2018E
KeyOperatingMetrics(Rsm)
Y/eMarch
May25,2016
Cipla
PrabhudasLilladherPvt.Ltd.
3rdFloor,SadhanaHouse,570,P.B.Marg,Worli,Mumbai400018,India
Tel:(9122)66322222Fax:(9122)66322209
RatingDistributionofResearchCoverage
%ofTotalCoverage
50%
42.1%
PLsRecommendationNomenclature
41.2%
40%
30%
16.7%
20%
10%
0.0%
0%
BUY
Accumulate
Reduce
BUY
Over15%OutperformancetoSensexover12months
Accumulate
OutperformancetoSensexover12months
Reduce
UnderperformancetoSensexover12months
Sell
Over15%underperformancetoSensexover12months
TradingBuy
Over10%absoluteupsidein1month
TradingSell
Over10%absolutedeclinein1month
NotRated(NR)
Nospecificcallonthestock
UnderReview(UR) :
Sell
Ratinglikelytochangeshortly
DISCLAIMER/DISCLOSURES
ANALYSTCERTIFICATION
We/I,Mr.SurajitPal(PGDBA,CFA,M.Com),ResearchAnalysts,authorsandthenamessubscribedtothisreport,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectourviewsaboutthe
subjectissuer(s)orsecurities.Wealsocertifythatnopartofourcompensationwas,is,orwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendation(s)orview(s)inthisreport.
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subsidiaryofPrabhudasLilladherAdvisoryServicesPvtLtd.whichhasitsvarioussubsidiariesengagedinbusinessofcommoditybroking,investmentbanking,financialservices(marginfunding)anddistributionofthird
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PL encourages independence in research reportpreparation and strivesto minimize conflict inpreparationof research report. PL or its analystsdid not receive any compensationor other benefits from the subject
Companyorthirdpartyinconnectionwiththepreparationoftheresearchreport.PLoritsResearchAnalystsdonothaveanymaterialconflictofinterestatthetimeofpublicationofthisreport.
ItisconfirmedthatMr.SurajitPal(PGDBA,CFA,M.Com),ResearchAnalystsofthisreporthavenotreceivedanycompensationfromthecompaniesmentionedinthereportintheprecedingtwelvemonths
CompensationofourResearchAnalystsisnotbasedonanyspecificmerchantbanking,investmentbankingorbrokerageservicetransactions.
TheResearchanalystsforthisreportcertifiesthatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesanditsortheirsecurities,andnopartofhis
orhercompensationwas,isorwillbe,directlyorindirectlyrelatedtospecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisreport.
Theresearchanalystsforthisreporthasnotservedasanofficer,directororemployeeofthesubjectcompanyPLoritsresearchanalystshavenotengagedinmarketmakingactivityforthesubjectcompany
Oursalespeople,traders,andotherprofessionalsoraffiliatesmayprovideoralorwrittenmarketcommentaryortradingstrategiestoourclientsthatreflectopinionsthatarecontrarytotheopinionsexpressedherein,
andourproprietarytradingandinvestingbusinessesmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsexpressedherein.Inreviewingthesematerials,youshouldbeawarethatanyorallo
theforegoing,amongotherthings,maygiverisetorealorpotentialconflictsofinterest.
PLanditsassociates,theirdirectorsandemployeesmay(a)fromtimetotime,havealongorshortpositionin,andbuyorsellthesecuritiesofthesubjectcompanyor(b)beengagedinanyothertransactioninvolving
suchsecuritiesandearnbrokerageorothercompensationoractasamarketmakerinthefinancialinstrumentsofthesubjectcompanyoractasanadvisororlender/borrowertothesubjectcompanyormayhaveany
otherpotentialconflictofinterestswithrespecttoanyrecommendationandotherrelatedinformationandopinions.
DISCLAIMER/DISCLOSURES(FORUSCLIENTS)
ANALYSTCERTIFICATION
Theresearchanalysts,withrespecttoeachissueranditssecuritiescoveredbytheminthisresearchreport,certifythat:Alloftheviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflecthisorherortheirpersonal
viewsaboutalloftheissuersandtheirsecurities;andNopartofhisorherortheircompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreport
Terms&conditionsandotherdisclosures:
ThisresearchreportisaproductofPrabhudasLilladherPvt.Ltd.,whichistheemployeroftheresearchanalyst(s)whohaspreparedtheresearchreport.Theresearchanalyst(s)preparingtheresearchreportis/are
residentoutsidetheUnitedStates(U.S.)andarenotassociatedpersonsofanyU.S.regulatedbrokerdealerandthereforetheanalyst(s)is/arenotsubjecttosupervisionbyaU.S.brokerdealer,andis/arenotrequiredto
satisfytheregulatorylicensingrequirementsofFINRAorrequiredtootherwisecomplywithU.S.rulesorregulationsregarding,amongotherthings,communicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesand
tradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.
This report is intended for distribution by Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a6(b)(4) of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Act, 1934 (the Exchange Act) and
interpretationsthereofbyU.S.SecuritiesandExchangeCommission(SEC)inrelianceonRule15a6(a)(2).IftherecipientofthisreportisnotaMajorInstitutionalInvestorasspecifiedabove,thenitshouldnotactupon
thisreportandreturnthesametothesender.Further,thisreportmaynotbecopied,duplicatedand/ortransmittedonwardtoanyU.S.person,whichisnottheMajorInstitutionalInvestor.
In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a6 of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by the SEC in order to conduct certain business with Major Institutional Investors, Prabhudas
LilladherPvt.Ltd.hasenteredintoanagreementwithaU.S.registeredbrokerdealer,MarcoPoloSecuritiesInc.("MarcoPolo").
TransactionsinsecuritiesdiscussedinthisresearchreportshouldbeeffectedthroughMarcoPolooranotherU.S.registeredbrokerdealer.
May25,2016
RADHAKRISHNA
N SREESANKAR