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GLOBAL MOBILE

LANDSCAPE
2015
A Country-by-Country Guide
to Mobile Phone and
Smartphone Usage
RAHUL CHADHA
Osbaldo Franco
Contributors: Victor Aka, Daiane Bobka, Man-Chung Cheung, Jasmine Enberg, Osbaldo Franco,
Jeane Han, Jennifer Jhun, Chris Keating, Cindy Liu, Matthew Michaels, Marcus Plieninger,
Hilary Rengert, Natalie Marin-Sharp

Read this on
eMarketer for iPad

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO


MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE
The mobile phone has reshaped the means by which the majority of the world communicatesit is now an intrinsic
part of the majority of peoples lives worldwide. Still, there remains substantial gaps in the level of development in
individual countries.

eMarketer estimates that mobile phone users


worldwide will number 4.43 billion this year, reaching
61.1% of the global population. By 2019, those figures
will climb to 5.07 billion and 67.1%.

Smartphone Users and Penetration Worldwide,


2014-2019
billions, % of mobile phone users and % change
2.48

2.66

2.29

The number of smartphone users is still growing at a


double-digit rate, as much of the developing world gains
access to the internet for the first time through these
connected devices. Smartphones have already reached
their saturation point in most developed markets. With
adoption slowing in places like China, growth will shift
to countries like India and Indonesia, where fierce
competition among smartphone manufacturers will
drive down the prices of devices, making them more
accessible to a wider swath of consumers.
An estimated 70% to 90% of all mobile subscriptions
will be for mobile broadband by 2020, and half of
those subscriptions will be in the Asia-Pacific region.
This move by consumers to faster 3G and 4G mobile
broadband networks will drive the consumption of
mobile content, as well as the wider use of apps.
Measuring the progress of 4G is a good way to
gauge the state of mobile networks in a particular
market, as its use reflects the allocation of spectrum
by government regulators, the presence of telecoms
willing to invest in infrastructure needed for 4G and
a consumer population with the income to afford
data packages.
According to Cisco Systems, 4G connections will
account for 26% of all connections by 2019, and
that 68% of all mobile data traffic will travel over
4G networks.

WHATS IN THIS REPORT? An overview of the mobile phone


landscape in eMarketers core countries of coverage,
focusing on penetration rates, original equipment
manufacturer (OEM) market share, mobile operating
system market share and the state of 4G.

2.08
1.86
1.59
37.7%

42.0%

48.0%

50.3%

12.0%

10.1%

8.2%

2016

2017

2018

45.2%

52.5%

24.9%
16.7%

2014

2015

Smartphone users

% of mobile phone users

7.2%
2019
% change

Note: individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the
smartphone(s) at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, July 2015
193859

www.eMarketer.com

KEY STAT: eMarketer projects that there will be 1.86 billion


smartphone users in 2015, with the ranks of that group
swelling to 2.66 billion by 2019. At that point, more than
half of all mobile phone users will be using smartphones.

CONTENTS
2 Global Mobile Landscape 2015: A Country-by-Country
Guide to Mobile Phone and Smartphone Usage
3 Asia-Pacific
19 Europe
37 Latin America
44 The Middle East and Africa
46 North America
52 Related eMarketer Reports
52 Related Links
53 Editorial and Production Contributors

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 2

ASIA-PACIFIC
Thanks to a handful of countries with massive
populations, Asia-Pacific is the worlds largest market
for mobile devices. The proliferation of low-cost
mobile devices in these markets has contributed
significantly to the fast adoption of both mobile
phones and smartphones. However, there is
significant disparity among many of the countries
grouped together in this region, which includes
developed markets such as Japan and South Korea,
along with the now-maturing China and the emerging
markets in India and Indonesia.
eMarketer estimates that mobile phone users in the
region will total 2.51 billion in 2015, a figure that is
expected to climb to 2.88 billion by 2019, when 69.4% of
the population in the region will have a mobile phone.

Mobile Phone Users and Penetration in Asia-Pacific,


by Country, 2013-2019
millions and % of population
2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Mobile phone users (millions)


China*

959.3 1,003.2 1,033.6 1,056.1 1,070.7 1,080.5 1,086.8

India

524.9

581.1

638.4

684.1

730.7

775.5

813.2

Indonesia

124.3

136.9

149.2

161.4

173.3

184.0

193.4

Japan

103.8

104.9

106.0

106.4

106.8

107.1

107.2

Philippines

63.4

68.1

71.6

74.7

77.2

79.2

81.0

Vietnam

51.6

54.7

57.1

59.2

61.0

62.9

64.5

Thailand

42.4

44.1

45.6

46.7

47.8

48.7

49.5

South Korea

40.2

40.5

40.8

41.1

41.4

41.6

41.9

Malaysia

19.4

20.8

21.7

22.4

23.0

23.5

23.9

Australia

17.5

18.2

18.6

19.0

19.4

19.7

20.0

Hong Kong

5.7

5.8

5.9

6.0

6.0

6.1

6.1

Singapore

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.8

4.9

5.0

5.2

279.3

296.4

314.3

332.4

351.1

370.1

389.4

Other

Asia-Pacific 2,236.3 2,379.2 2,507.4 2,614.3 2,713.3 2,803.8 2,882.1


Mobile phone user penetration (% of population)
Japan

81.6%

82.6%

83.5%

84.0%

84.5%

84.9%

85.2%

South Korea

82.1%

82.6%

83.0%

83.5%

84.0%

84.5%

84.9%

Singapore

80.4%

81.8%

82.8%

83.2%

83.7%

84.1%

84.4%

Hong Kong

80.2%

81.6%

82.6%

83.0%

83.5%

84.0%

84.4%

Australia

78.5%

80.6%

81.9%

82.7%

83.4%

83.9%

84.3%

China*

71.1%

74.0%

75.9%

77.3%

78.0%

78.5%

78.7%

Malaysia

65.4%

69.1%

71.0%

72.3%

73.3%

73.7%

74.0%

Thailand

62.9%

65.0%

67.0%

68.5%

69.8%

71.0%

72.0%

Philippines

60.0%

63.2%

65.3%

66.9%

68.0%

68.6%

69.0%

Vietnam

55.8%

58.5%

60.5%

62.1%

63.5%

64.8%

65.9%

Indonesia

49.5%

54.0%

58.3%

62.5%

66.5%

70.0%

73.0%

India

43.0%

47.0%

51.0%

54.0%

57.0%

59.8%

62.0%

Other

45.5%

47.6%

49.8%

52.0%

54.2%

56.4%

58.6%

Asia-Pacific

56.7%

59.8%

62.5%

64.6%

66.4%

68.1%

69.4%

Note: individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and use
the phone(s) at least once per month; numbers may not add up to total
due to rounding; *excludes Hong Kong
Source: eMarketer, April 2015; confirmed and republished, July 2015
187825

www.eMarketer.com

The number of mobile phone internet users in the region,


meanwhile, will increase from 1.25 billion in 2015 to
1.73 billion over the next four years. The mobile phone
internet user penetration rate will also shoot up, climbing
from 31.1% in 2015 to 41.6% in 2019.
Smartphone users will see similarly dramatic gains over
the forecast period, with their numbers swelling from
1.02 billion in 2015 to 1.48 billion in 2019. Smartphone
user growth will register at 15.3% this year, but decline to
8.6% by 2019.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 3

Smartphone Users and Penetration in Asia-Pacific, by


Country, 2014-2019
millions and % of mobile phone users
2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Smartphone users (millions)


China*

482.7

525.8

563.3

599.3

640.5

687.7

India

123.3

167.9

204.1

243.8

279.2

317.1

Indonesia

44.7

55.4

65.2

74.9

83.5

92.0

Japan

46.2

51.8

55.8

58.9

60.9

62.6

South Korea

32.2

33.6

34.6

35.6

36.5

37.0

Philippines

21.8

26.2

29.9

33.3

36.5

39.2

Vietnam

16.6

20.7

24.6

28.6

32.0

35.2

Thailand

15.4

17.9

20.0

21.9

23.4

24.8

Australia

13.5

14.6

15.4

16.0

16.5

16.8

Malaysia

8.9

10.1

11.0

11.8

12.7

13.7

Hong Kong

4.4

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.3

5.4

Singapore
Other
Asia-Pacific

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.6

74.5

91.1

106.7

121.3

134.7

147.2

888.0

1,023.9

1,139.8

1,254.7

1,366.3

1,483.4

Smartphone user penetration (% of mobile phone users)

In fact, eMarketer estimates that mobile phone


penetration in Australia will exceed that of the US in 2015,
at 81.9% of the overall population. Due to Australias
smaller population, that translates to 18.6 million mobile
phone userswell behind the 258.0 million projection for
the US.
Mobile Phone* and Smartphone** Users in Australia,
2014-2019
Mobile phone
users* (millions)

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

18.2

18.6

19.0

19.4

19.7

20.0

80.6%

81.9%

82.7%

83.4%

83.9%

84.3%

% change

3.8%

2.6%

2.0%

2.0%

1.6%

1.5%

Smartphone
users** (millions)

13.5

14.6

15.4

16.0

16.5

16.8

% of mobile
phone users

74.3%

78.4%

81.0%

82.6%

83.6%

84.3%

% change

17.5%

8.3%

5.4%

4.0%

2.9%

2.3%

% of population

Note: *individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and use
the phone(s) at least once per month; **individuals of any age who own at
least one smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, July 2015

Singapore

83.1%

85.2%

86.3%

87.2%

88.0%

88.9%

South Korea

79.5%

82.3%

84.3%

86.0%

87.6%

88.4%

Hong Kong

76.6%

80.7%

84.0%

85.9%

87.2%

88.3%

193899

Australia

74.3%

78.4%

81.0%

82.6%

83.6%

84.3%

China*

48.1%

50.9%

53.3%

56.0%

59.3%

63.3%

Japan

44.0%

48.9%

52.4%

55.1%

56.9%

58.4%

Malaysia

42.6%

46.6%

49.2%

51.3%

54.3%

57.3%

Thailand

34.9%

39.2%

42.8%

45.8%

48.1%

50.0%

Indonesia

32.6%

37.1%

40.4%

43.2%

45.4%

47.6%

Philippines

32.0%

36.6%

40.0%

43.1%

46.1%

48.4%

Vietnam

30.4%

36.2%

41.5%

46.8%

50.9%

54.6%

Additionally, smartphone penetration is quite high,


expected to hit 78.4% of mobile phone users in 2015, an
8.3% increase over the previous year. Australia is now
moving into mature market territory as far as smartphone
penetration is concerned, with the annual growth rate
remaining in the single digits through 2019, the end of
eMarketers forecast period.

India

21.2%

26.3%

29.8%

33.4%

36.0%

39.0%

Other

25.1%

29.0%

32.1%

34.5%

36.4%

37.8%

Asia-Pacific

37.3%

40.8%

43.6%

46.2%

48.7%

51.5%

Note: individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the
smartphone(s) at least once per month; *excludes Hong Kong
Source: eMarketer, July 2015
193860

www.eMarketer.com

The buildout of wireless infrastructure in various


Asia-Pacific markets is pushing users to faster 3G and 4G
networks. While strong 4G penetration remains an as-yet
unrealized dream for the region, the shift to the faster
network has begun; GSMA projects that 28% of mobile
connections will be 4G by 2020.

AUSTRALIA
While Australia is usually lumped in with other Asia-Pacific
markets, it stands apart from most other countries in
the region. From a cultural perspective, Australia is more
closely aligned with developed Western countries than
with its geographic neighbors, resulting in a mobile phone
user base whose behaviors are similar to those in the US
or Canada.

www.eMarketer.com

Feature phones still account for about one in four mobile


phone users in Australia, and there are signs that these
users are wedded to their less capable devices more
often than not. Research firm Roy Morgan conducted
a survey of nonsmartphone userswhich it defined as
those who used a phone that lacked both a computer-like
functionality and the ability to download appsbetween
July 2014 and December 2014, and found that 67% of
them had no intention of upgrading to a smartphone.
While Googles Android OS is the market leader in
Australia, its position is not as dominant as it is in many
other countries. Kantar Worldpanel Com Tech found that
smartphones running Android accounted for 52.3% of
sales of the devices in March 2015, while iOS made up
38.4%. Windows Phone was third, at 7.3%.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 4

Mobile Phone Ownership in Australia, by Brand,


2011-2014
% of respondents

Smartphone Sales Share in Australia, by OS,


June 2012-March 2015
% of total
Android

iOS

Windows

Other

2011

2012

2013

2014

June 2012

60.9%

27.3%

5.3%

6.4%

Apple

32%

40%

45%

49%

Dec 2012

56.0%

38.5%

3.0%

2.5%

Samsung

13%

18%

28%

25%

June 2013

64.8%

27.4%

5.2%

2.6%

Nokia

28%

16%

9%

7%

Dec 2013

57.5%

34.8%

5.2%

2.4%

HTC

8%

11%

7%

5%

June 2014

68.0%

25.5%

5.3%

1.2%

LG

4%

4%

2%

4%

Dec 2014

43.7%

45.1%

9.2%

2.0%

Sony Ericsson

5%

3%

2%

3%

March 2015

52.3%

38.4%

7.3%

2.0%

Motorola

3%

2%

2%

1%

BlackBerry

3%

2%

1%

<1%

Other

3%

4%

4%

5%

Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding


Source: Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, May 2015
183853

www.eMarketer.com

While mobile phone users in Australia have access to


devices manufactured by a number of brands, they are
gravitating toward Apples iPhone. According to data from
the International Data Corporation (IDC), Apple devices
accounted for 49% of smartphones shipped in Australia
in Q1 2015, compared with 38% a year earlier. Samsung
devices made up 31% of smartphones shipped in Q1
2015, a decline from 40% the previous year.
Smartphone Shipment Share in Australia, by Brand,
Q1 2014 & Q1 2015
% of total
Telstra
Microsoft
2%
4%
Telstra
3%

Other
12%
Samsung
40%

HTC
4%

Microsoft
3%

Apple
38%

Q1 2014

189875

www.eMarketer.com

4G has made significant inroads in Australia, accounting


for 34% of all mobile connections in 2014, according
to Cisco Systems. That percentage was projected to
increase to 54% in 2019. The amount of mobile traffic
traveling over 4G connections was expected to climb
dramatically over the same time period, increasing from
58% to 91%.
Mobile Data and Device Metrics in Australia,
2014 & 2019
2014

2019

Mobile device users (millions)

20.3

22.2

Mobile device user penetration (% of population)

86%

88%

21

23

Mobile devices

Other
11%

Smartphones in use (millions)

HTC
3%

Apple
49%

Samsung
31%

Connected tablets in use (millions)


4G connections (% of total mobile connections)*

34%

54%

Mobile data
Mobile data traffic per user (MB/month)

Q1 2015

Source: International Data Corporation (IDC) as cited in press release;


eMarketer calculations, June 10, 2015
191168

Source: Australian Interactive Media Industry Association (AIMIA) and


Complete the Picture Consulting, "Australian Mobile Phone Lifestyle Index,"
Dec 4, 2014

www.eMarketer.com

A survey of internet users in Australia conducted by the


Australian Interactive Media Industry Association (AIMIA)
and Complete the Picture Consulting in October 2014
found that nearly half of respondents owned an Apple
mobile phone. Samsung controlled one-quarter of the
market, followed by Nokia (7%), HTC (5%), LG (4%) and
Sony Ericsson (3%).

1,425

6,343

Smartphone data traffic (% of total)

52%

50%

Tablet data traffic (% of total)

16%

30%

Laptop data traffic (% of total)

28%

5%

Mobile video traffic (% of total mobile data traffic)

60%

77%

4G data traffic (% of total mobile data traffic)

58%

91%

Note: includes only devices connected to the mobile network; excludes


devices connected via Wi-Fi; *excludes low-power wide area (LPWA)
machine-to-machine (M2M) connections
Source: Cisco Systems, "Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI): Global Mobile
Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2014-2019," Feb 3, 2015
185478

www.eMarketer.com

Kantar reported that Telstra was the largest mobile


phone service provider in Australia, controlling 39.7% at
the end of Q1 2015. Optus was second with 21.3% of the
market share, followed by Vodafone Hutchison Australia
with 16.9%.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 5

CHINA
Chinas mobile phone market is now the largest in the
world, with figures that dwarf those of any other country.
eMarketer estimates that the number of mobile phone
users in the country will reach 1.03 billion this year, giving
it a 75.9% mobile phone user penetration rate. That puts
China behind Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong
and Australia in terms of mobile phone uptake. eMarketer
projects that by 2019, mobile phone users will number
1.09 billion, with mobile phones achieving an uptake rate
of 78.7%.

CAICT also found that the number of 4G LTE-enabled


phones shipped between January 2015 and April 2015
was 124.0 million, an increase of 658.7% from the same
time period the previous year.
4G LTE-Enabled Smartphone Shipments in China,
April 2014 & April 2015
millions and % change
124.0
(658.7%)

China is also the worlds largest smartphone market,


with eMarketer estimating that users of the devices will
number 525.8 million in 2015 and 687.7 million by 2019.
Smartphone penetration among Chinas population will
reach 38.6% and 49.8% during that time.
There are signs, however, that Chinas smartphone
market is slowing down. The IDC released data in May
2015 showing that smartphone shipments in China fell
4.3% year over year in Q1 2015. For the most part,
first-time smartphone buyers who can afford the devices
have already acquired them. Now smartphone retailers
have to deal with buyers looking to replace or upgrade
existing devices. eMarketer projects that the annual
smartphone user growth rate will decline from 8.9% in
2015 to 7.4% by 2019.
While the rollout of 4G in China has been relatively recent,
with the countrys three state-owned service providers
China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom
receiving 4G licenses in December 2013, these faster
networks show signs of quick user adoption. According
to the China Academy of Information and Communication
Technology (CAICT), 4G LTE-enabled phones accounted
for only 16.3% of mobile phone shipments in China in
April 2014, with 3G phones making up 71.5% of phones
shipped. By April 2015, that ratio had completely reversed:
4G-LTE phones accounted for 83.8% of shipped devices,
and 3G phones made up only 5.4%.
3G vs. 4G LTE-Enabled Smartphone Shipment Share in
China, April 2014 & April 2015
% of mobile phone shipments
April 2014

16.3
April 2014

April 2015

Note: data is for Jan-April of each year; during Jan-April 2015, 4G


LTE-enabled smartphone shipments accounted for 80.5% of total mobile
phone shipments
Source: China Academy of Information and Communication Technology
(CAICT), "April 2015 China Mobile Phone Market Analysis"; eMarketer
calculations, May 2015
190266

www.eMarketer.com

In comparison, the Ministry of Industry and Information


Technology (MIIT) reported that 171 million 4G-enabled
mobile phones were shipped in China in 2014, accounting
for 37.8% of devices. The number of 3G devices made up
nearly half of all devices shipped, at 220 million.
Mobile Phone Shipments in China, by Connection
Type, 2014
millions and % of total
2G
61 (13.5%)
4G
171 (37.8%)
3G
220 (48.7%)

Source: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) - People's


Republic of China as cited by Tencent Tech, Jan 13, 2015
186014

www.eMarketer.com

April 2015

3G

71.5%

5.4%

4G LTE-enabled

16.3%

83.8%

Note: April 2014 total mobile phone shipments=40.7 million; April 2015
total mobile phone shipments=45.2 million
Source: China Academy of Information and Communication Technology
(CAICT), "April 2015 China Mobile Phone Market Analysis," May 2015
190265

www.eMarketer.com

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 6

The increase of 4G-capable phones does not translate


into a strictly equal adoption of 4G data plans, however,
as consumers in China are wary of the more expensive
data plans that come with faster network speeds. But
the adoption of 4G plans in the country is expected to
be boosted by plans from the three big telecoms to cut
mobile data prices, a move with the likely outcome of
migrating customers to 4G contracts.
According to Mobidia and Ovum, there were 56.1 million
4G LTE connections in China as of December 2014, a
4.3% penetration rate among the overall population.
Cisco reported that 4G connections accounted for a
smaller portion of all mobile connections in 2014, making
up 5%. Cisco projected that 4G connections would
constitute 30% of mobile connections in China by 2019,
when nearly three-quarters of all mobile data traffic would
travel over 4G networks.
Chinas device manufacturer market is rife with strong
competition among a number of players, both foreign and
domestic, with Apple and domestic manufacturer Xiaomi
both having a banner 2014 in the country. In particular,
Apples release in China of the incredibly popular iPhone
6 and iPhone 6 Plus models in fall 2014 catapulted the
brand into the top tier of smartphone manufacturers
there. According to research from the IDC, Apple shipped
14.5 million smartphones in Q1 2015, giving it 14.7% of
the market share that quartera 62.1% year-over-year
increase borne on the back of the iPhone 6.
Xiaomi, which has provided devices at a lower price point
and relied on a unique marketing strategy that leverages
social media, shipped 13.5 million units during that
time, giving it 13.7% of the market share. Huawei was
responsible for 11.4% of units shipped, seeing 39.7%
year-over-year growth. Samsung has struggled in China,
shipping just 9.6 million units in Q1 2015, a 53.0% drop
from the previous year. Lenovo, too, has seen its fortunes
slip, shipping 8.2 million units in the quarter.

Smartphone Shipments in China, by Brand,


Q1 2014 & Q1 2015
millions, % change and % of total
Q1 2014

Q1 2015

Smartphone
shipments

% of
total

Smartphone
shipments

% of
total

%
change

Apple

8.9

8.7%

14.5

14.7%

62.1%

Xiaomi

9.5

9.2%

13.5

13.7%

42.3%

Huawei

8.0

7.8%

11.2

11.4%

39.7%

Samsung

20.5

19.9%

9.6

9.7%

-53.0%

Lenovo*

10.7

10.3%

8.2

8.3%

-23.1%

Other

45.7

44.3%

41.7

42.2%

-8.8%

Total

103.2

100.0%

98.8

100.0%

-4.3%

Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding; *includes


shipments from its smartphone subsidiary Motorola, which Lenovo
acquired during Q4 2014
Source: International Data Corporation (IDC) as cited in press release, May
10, 2015
190025

www.eMarketer.com

Data from Counterpoint similarly demonstrated Apples


success in China. The research firm found that Apple
devices made up 15.7% of smartphones shipped in
Q1 2015, although that was a decline from 18.0% the
previous quarter. Xiaomi had a 13.1% share, followed by
Huawei (10.5%) and Samsung (8.6%).
Smartphone Shipment Share in China, by Brand,
Q1 2014, Q4 2014 & Q1 2015
% of total
Q4 2014

Q1 2015

Apple

Q1 2014
8.8%

18.0%

15.7%

Xiaomi

10.5%

13.2%

13.1%

Huawei

8.0%

10.1%

10.5%

Samsung

18.5%

8.5%

8.6%

Other

54.2%

50.3%

52.2%

Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding


Source: Counterpoint as cited in company blog, April 30, 2015
189597

www.eMarketer.com

Meanwhile, Strategy Analytics reported that Xiaomi


controlled a larger overall share of Chinas smartphone
market in Q1 2015, at 12.8%, just ahead of Apples 12.3%.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 7

Smartphone Shipments in China, by Brand,


Q1 2014-Q1 2015
millions, % change vs. same period of prior year and % of total
Q1 2014
Xiaomi
% of total
Apple

Q2 2014

Q3 2014

Q4 2014

Q1 2015

10.6

14.5

17.0

15.7

14.0

11.3%

14.2%

16.2%

12.8%

12.8%

7.8

5.0

4.9

13.4

13.5

8.3%

4.9%

4.7%

10.9%

12.3%

8.0

11.9

9.6

11.9

11.2

% of total

8.5%

11.6%

9.1%

9.7%

10.2%

Other

67.2

70.6

73.5

82.0

71.1

71.9%

69.3%

70.0%

66.6%

64.7%

93.6

102.0

105.0

123.0

109.8

38.9%

29.4%

31.9%

34.7%

17.3%

% of total
Huawei

% of total
Total
% change vs.
same period of
prior year

Source: Strategy Analytics, "China Smartphone Vendor & OS Marketshare in


Q1 2015" as cited in press release, April 29, 2015
190279

iOS

14,217

Android

7,508

Windows Phone

7,229

Other

6,580

Note: ages 15-64 living in 62 tier 1-5 cities and townships


Source: Sinomonitor, CMMS as cited in ZenithOptimedia, "2014 China
Media Scene," Sep 24, 2014
186047

www.eMarketer.com

According to company filings, mobile service provider


China Mobile had 815.4 million subscribers as of Q1 2015.
China Unicom had 294.8 million subscribers that quarter,
while China Telecom had 188.8 million.

www.eMarketer.com

Although Googles Android OS remains the dominant


operating system in China, Apples iOS has managed to
grab a bigger slice due to the immense popularity of its
newest device. According to Kantar Worldpanel ComTech,
72.0% of smartphones sold in March 2015 operated
with Androids OS, while iOS was installed on 26.1% of
devices sold. For Apple, that was an increase from 12.8%
in June 2014, a few months before the release of the
iPhone 6.
Smartphone Sales Share in China, by OS,
Dec 2012-March 2015
% of total
Android

iOS

Other

Dec 2012

73.7%

21.2%

5.1%

June 2013

69.9%

24.7%

5.4%

Dec 2013

78.6%

19.0%

2.5%

June 2014

84.3%

12.8%

2.9%

Dec 2014

77.0%

21.5%

1.5%

March 2015

72.0%

26.1%

1.9%

Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding


Source: Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, May 2015
185564

Median Monthly Household Income of Smartphone


Users in China, by OS, 2014
in Chinese yuan renminbi

www.eMarketer.com

There are other signs that Android is losing its iron grip
on China. Shipments of Android phones slipped between
2013 and 2104, according to MIIT, which reported a 12.4%
decline over that period.
Marketers, too, should take note of the greater potential
offered by targeting Apple users. According to a 2014 poll
of smartphone users in China conducted by Sinomonitor,
the median monthly income of those running iOS was
nearly double that of Android users and Windows Phone
users alike.

INDIA
The number of mobile phone users in India has seen
a steady rise over the past four years, and that trend is
expected to continue through 2019. eMarketer forecasts
that there will be 638.4 million mobile phone users in
India in 2015, making it one of the largest mobile phone
markets in the world. That figure will increase to
813.2 million by 2019, although the annual growth rate will
decline, falling to 4.9% by the end of the forecast period.
Mobile Phone* and Smartphone** Users in India,
2014-2019
2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Mobile phone
users* (millions)

581.1

638.4

684.1

730.7

775.5

813.2

% of population

47.0%

51.0%

54.0%

57.0%

59.8%

62.0%

% change

10.7%

9.9%

7.2%

6.8%

6.1%

4.9%

Smartphone
users** (millions)

123.3

167.9

204.1

243.8

279.2

317.1

% of mobile
phone users

21.2%

26.3%

29.8%

33.4%

36.0%

39.0%

% change

62.1%

36.2%

21.5%

19.5%

14.5%

13.6%

Note: *individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and use
the phone(s) at least once per month; **individuals of any age who own at
least one smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, July 2015
193900

www.eMarketer.com

eMarketer estimates that there will be 167.9 million


smartphone users in India in 2015, with that number
increasing to 317.1 million by 2019. The annual growth rate
in smartphone usage will also remain relatively strong
over the forecast period, although it will decline from
36.2% to 13.6% as the market approaches saturation.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 8

While smartphones are seeing strong growth in India,


feature phones remain the dominant mobile phone type
there. According to research from IDC, feature phones
accounted for 65% of mobile phones shipped in the
country in Q4 2014.

Feature Phone Shipment Share in India, by Brand,


Q3 2014
% of total

Samsung
16%

Q1 2014
72%

Karbonn
8%

28%

Q2 2014
71%

29%

Q3 2014
32%

Q4 2014
65%
Feature phones

35%

Smartphones

Source: International Data Corporation (IDC), "Asia Pacific Quarterly Mobile


Phone Tracker Q4 2014," March 25, 2015
187637

www.eMarketer.com

Data from CyberMedia Research (CMR) similarly


found that feature phones dominated mobile phone
shipments in India in 2014, accounting for 180 million of
the 257 million mobile phones shipped last year.

Feature phones

Source: International Data Corporation (IDC), "Asia Pacific Quarterly Mobile


Phone Tracker Q3 2014" as cited in press release, Nov 26, 2014
www.eMarketer.com

While there is a demonstrated demand for smartphones


in India, there have been several challenges in rolling
out high-speed mobile broadband in the country, among
them high investment costs for service providers and the
slow allocation of spectrum for 4G networks. According
to Cisco Systems, the number of 4G connections in India
was so low the company effectively rounded the figure
down and reported that it accounted for 0% of all mobile
connections in 2014. It also found that 4G mobile traffic
accounted for only 3% of all mobile traffic in that year.

2014

2019

Mobile devices

180

590.3

895.6

Mobile device user penetration (% of population)

47%

67%

Smartphones in use (millions)

140

651

Mobile device users (millions)

77
257

Source: CyberMedia Research (CMR), "India Monthly Mobile Handsets


Market Review, CY 2014" as cited in press release; eMarketer calculations,
Feb 7, 2015
186433

Nokia
11%

Mobile Data and Device Metrics in India, 2014 & 2019

Mobile Phone Shipments in India, by Type, 2014


millions

Total

Lava
10%

183938

68%

Smartphones

Micromax
14%

Other
41%

Mobile Phone Shipment Share in India, by Type,


Q1-Q4 2014
% of total

www.eMarketer.com

Additional Q3 2014 data from IDC found that Samsung


was the brand leader in feature phones shipped in India,
accounting for 16% of shipments. It was followed by
domestic OEM Micromax (14%), Nokia (11%), and
homegrown companies Lava (10%) and Karbonn (8%).
However, in a sign of just how fractured the feature
phone market remains in India, IDC reported that other
manufacturers collectively accounted for 41% of feature
phones shipped that quarter.

Connected tablets in use (millions)

19

0%

15%

Mobile data traffic per user (MB/month)

149

1,262

Smartphone data traffic (% of total)

48%

76%

Tablet data traffic (% of total)

2%

12%

Laptop data traffic (% of total)

8%

3%

36%

66%

3%

38%

4G connections (% of total mobile connections)*


Mobile data

Mobile video traffic (% of total mobile data traffic)


4G data traffic (% of total mobile data traffic)

Note: includes only devices connected to the mobile network; excludes


devices connected via Wi-Fi; *excludes low-power wide area (LPWA)
machine-to-machine (M2M) connections
Source: Cisco Systems, "Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI): Global Mobile
Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2014-2019," Feb 3, 2015
185487

www.eMarketer.com

The high cost of both 4G-enabled devices and the


service plans to power them has also provided another
impediment to 4G adoption. The uptake of 4G has seen
gradual progress, but in the interim mobile internet users
in India have turned to low-cost and free Wi-Fi as a means
to get online.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 9

Much like that of the feature phone market, the


smartphone market in India is crowded with competitors.
According to technology market analyst firm Canalys,
Samsung made up the largest share of smartphone units
shipped in Q1 2015 with 26%. Micromax was next with
18%, followed by domestic OEM Intex (8%), Lava (6%)
and Microsoft (4%). Also similarly to the feature phone
market, a mix of other companies made up a significant
portion of shipments, accounting for 37%an indication
of just how fierce competition in India remains.

Mobile Service Provider Subscriber Share in India,


Dec 2014
% of total
Bharti Airtel
23.0%
Vodafone
18.9%
Idea Cellular
16.0%
Reliance (RCOM)
11.3%
BSNL

Smartphone Shipment Share in India, by Brand,


Q1 2015
% of total

8.6%
Aircel
8.3%
Tata Docomo
7.0%
Telewings

Samsung
26%

Other
37%

4.6%

Micromax
18%

Microsoft
4%
Lava
6%

Intex
8%

Videocon
0.7%
MTNL
0.4%

Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding


Source: Canalys, May 8, 2015
190382

Sistema
1.0%

www.eMarketer.com

Chinese smartphone manufacturers, in particular, have


begun making concerted efforts to break into Indias
market as they face slowing adoption rates in their
home market. Some of these OEMS, such as Xiaomi,
have taken pains to localize their products for the Indian
market by adding features like dual-SIM card functionality
to them, thereby allowing users to take advantage
of cheaper plans being offered by competing service
providers on the same smartphone.
In terms of mobile service provider market share, Bharti
Airtel is the market leader with 23.0% of mobile service
subscribers as of December 2014, according to the
Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI). Vodafone
held an 18.9% share, followed by Idea Cellular (16.0%),
Reliance (11.3%), BSNL (8.6%) and Aircel (8.3%). The high
level of competition in India is likely to result in cheaper
service plans for mobile customers down the road, once
telecoms are able to recoup their investment costs.

Quadrant Televentures
0.3%
Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding
Source: Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) as cited in press
release, Feb 6, 2015
187219

www.eMarketer.com

According to company filings, mobile service provider


Bharti Airtel had 226.0 million subscribers in Q1 2015.
Vodafone had 183.8 million subscribers that quarter, while
Idea Cellular had 157.8 million and Reliance (RCOM) had
110.7 million.

INDONESIA
Indonesia bears all of the hallmarks of a mobile-first
nation. Its massive population of about 250 million people
is dispersed over an archipelago consisting of thousands
of islands, presenting a significant challenge to the
buildout of fixed line telecommunications infrastructure.
The rise of mobile has sidestepped that problem, and the
fast adoption of mobile devices has proven that Indonesia
is a market filled with people hungry for telephone and
internet services.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 10

eMarketer projects that the number of mobile phone


users in Indonesia will reach 149.2 million in 2015, giving
the devices a 58.3% penetration rate among the overall
population. That number will climb to 193.4 million by
2019, with the annual growth rate slowing over the
forecast period.
Mobile Phone* and Smartphone** Users in Indonesia,
2014-2019
2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Mobile phone
users* (millions)

136.9

149.2

161.4

173.3

184.0

193.4

% of population

54.0%

58.3%

62.5%

66.5%

70.0%

73.0%

% change

10.2%

9.0%

8.2%

7.3%

6.2%

5.1%

44.7

55.4

65.2

74.9

83.5

92.0

% of mobile
phone users

32.6%

37.1%

40.4%

43.2%

45.4%

47.6%

% change

35.0%

Smartphone
users** (millions)

24.0%

17.6%

15.0%

11.5%

10.1%

Note: *individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and use
the phone(s) at least once per month; **individuals of any age who own at
least one smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, July 2015
193905

www.eMarketer.com

Smartphone adoption will remain more robust; users of


the devices will number 55.4 million in 2015 and grow to
92.0 million by 2019. The penetration rate of smartphones
among mobile phone users will climb from 37.1% to
47.6% over the same time period. The annual growth
rate of smartphone users will remain in the double digits
through 2019.

4G networks remain a relatively new addition to


Indonesia; the countrys three largest telecoms rolled
out the faster network in late 2014. That explains why
4G connections did not even register on Cisco Systems
survey of mobile data and device metrics in the country.
However, Cisco estimated that 4G connections would
make up 14% of all mobile connections by 2019, when
4G data traffic would account for 44% of all mobile
data traffic.
Mobile Data and Device Metrics in Indonesia,
2014 & 2019

Mobile device users (millions)


Mobile device user penetration (% of population)
Smartphones in use (millions)
Connected tablets in use (millions)

Despite growth in smartphone user numbers, Indonesia


remains a market that is still at least partly wedded to
the feature phone. However, the government is making
efforts to hasten the shift to smartphones. In May 2015,
the Communications and Information Ministry announced
that it would increase the tax levied on 2G-capable
handsets in order to push 4G adoption.

2019

155.1

195.3

61%

73%

64

167

0%

14%

Mobile data traffic per user (MB/month)

388

3,080

Smartphone data traffic (% of total)

50%

75%

Laptop data traffic (% of total)

46%

20%

Tablet data traffic (% of total)

1%

3%

51%

69%

6%

44%

4G connections (% of total mobile connections)*


Mobile data

Mobile video traffic (% of total mobile data traffic)


4G data traffic (% of total mobile data traffic)

Note: includes only devices connected to the mobile network; excludes


devices connected via Wi-Fi; *excludes low-power wide area (LPWA)
machine-to-machine (M2M) connections
Source: Cisco Systems, "Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI): Global Mobile
Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2014-2019," Feb 3, 2015
185488

The ingress of low-cost devices manufactured by both


domestic and Chinese companies has aided smartphone
uptake in Indonesia, making access to them easier than
ever. Chinese search engine Baidu surveyed smartphone
users in Indonesia between September 2014 and October
2014 and found that more than 80% of respondents had
bought their current smartphone for 3,000,000IDR ($253)
or less.

2014
Mobile devices

www.eMarketer.com

In terms of smartphone OS share, Googles Android


operating system has a solid lead in Indonesia. According
to GlobalWebIndex, 16.5 million mobile internet users
in the country used Android last year, while 6.3 million
used the BlackBerry OS from the eponymously named
company (formerly known as Research in Motion, or
RIM). GlobalWebIndex also reported that 2.5 million
mobile internet users had Apples iOS and 1.8 million used
Windows Phone.
Mobile Internet Users in Indonesia, by Smartphone
OS, 2014
millions
Android

16.5

RIM
iOS

6.3
2.5
1.8

Windows

Note: ages 16-64; some individuals own/use more than one handset
Source: GlobalWebIndex as cited in company blog, Nov 24, 2014
184205

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

www.eMarketer.com

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 11

Various lists of the most popular smartphone


manufacturers in Indonesia reflect Androids dominance
OEMs that rely on the open source OS seem to top
all of them. Research firm Counterpoint found that
Samsung accounted for 26.4% of smartphones shipped
in Indonesia during Q4 2014. Indonesian telecom and
handset manufacturer Smartfren came in second,
shipping 15.4% of devices sold under its brand,
followed by domestic firm Evercoss (13.4%), Chinas
Oppo (8.8%) and homegrown company Advan (7.7.%).
Interestingly, other OEMs accounted for 28.3% of
smartphones shipped during the quarteran indication
of just how competitive the smartphone landscape in
Indonesia remains.

Smartphone Brand Used by Mobile Internet Users in


Indonesia, 2014
% of respondents
Samsung

49.7%

BlackBerry

16.2%

Smartfren
Lenovo

7.1%

Oppo

6.4%

3.0%
1.9%
1.0%

14.4%

Apple
Hisense

Huawei

Source: Baidu survey as cited in The Wall Street Journal, Dec 5, 2014
184559

Smartphone Shipment Share in Indonesia, by Brand,


Q4 2014
% of total
Samsung

26.4%

Smartfren

15.4%

Evercoss
Oppo
Advan

According to company filings, mobile service provider


Telkom Indonesia had 140.6 million subscribers at the
end of 2014, while XL Axiata had 59.6 million and Bakrie
Telecom had 11.6 million subscribers. And as of Q1 2015,
Indosat had 66.5 million subscribers.

13.4%

JAPAN

8.8%
7.7%

Other

28.3%

Source: Counterpoint as cited in company blog, Feb 4, 2015


185194

www.eMarketer.com

www.eMarketer.com

A survey conducted by Baidu in 2014 found that


Samsung had a significant advantage over competitors:
49.7% of mobile internet users in Indonesia used the
brand. BlackBerry followed with a 16.2% share, then
Smartfren (14.4%), Lenovo (7.1%), Oppo (6.4%), Apple
(3.0%), Hisense (1.9%) and Huawei (1.0%). BlackBerrys
prominent place is somewhat misleading, as the
Canadian company has seen a steady decline in its
presence in Indonesia over the past few years.

eMarketer estimates that Japans mobile phone user


population will stand at 106.0 million in 2015. Mobile
phone user numbers have hit their effective ceiling in the
country, with penetration rates above 80% and the annual
user growth rate at 1.0% or less through 2019.
Mobile Phone* and Smartphone** Users in Japan,
2014-2019
2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Mobile phone
users* (millions)

104.9

106.0

106.4

106.8

107.1

107.2

% of population

82.6%

83.5%

84.0%

84.5%

84.9%

85.2%

% change

1.1%

1.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.2%

0.1%

Smartphone
users** (millions)

46.2

51.8

55.8

58.9

60.9

62.6

% of mobile
phone users

44.0%

48.9%

52.4%

55.1%

56.9%

58.4%

% change

17.5%

12.2%

7.7%

5.6%

3.5%

2.8%

Note: *individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and use
the phone(s) at least once per month; **individuals of any age who own at
least one smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, July 2015
193906

www.eMarketer.com

The number of smartphone users will see a stronger


annual growth rate through the forecast period.
By eMarketer estimates, there will be 51.8 million
smartphone users in Japan this year, with that figure
growing to 62.6 million by 2019. Like mobile phones,
smartphone user growth will also slow, with the annual
increase falling to just 2.8% by 2019.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 12

Japan remains something of an aberration, as it


represents a developed market that was comparatively
slow to shift to smartphones, largely due to the
prevalence of advanced feature phones that offered many
of the same functions of a smartphone in a form factor
closer to that of a feature phone. In fact, feature phones
still play an important part of Japans mobile landscape.
According to a March 2015 survey conducted by NTTCom
Research, more than half of internet users in Japan
owned just a smartphone. Almost four in 10 owned solely
a feature phone, while about one in 10 owned both.
Primary Type of Mobile Phone Used by Internet Users
in Japan, March 2015
% of respondents

Those who have bought smartphones display an


attachment to them. January 2015 polling by Rakuten
found that smartphone users in Japan were much more
inclined to make their next mobile phone purchase a
smartphone: More than 40% of mobile phone users
surveyed planned to purchase a smartphone or were
heavily leaning in that direction. Only 6.3% were firmly
committed to replacing their existing feature phone with
another one.
Type of Mobile Phone that Feature Phone vs.
Smartphone Users in Japan Plan to Purchase Next,
Jan 2015
% of respondents
Smartphone users

0.5%

0.5%

35.5% 7.3%

56.3%

Feature phone users

Both
9.7%

9.0%

Definitely a smartphone
Leaning toward a smartphone
Fine with either

Smartphone only
51.5%

Feature phone only


38.8%

34.8%

18.3% 6.3%

Leaning toward a
feature phone
Definitely a feature phone

Note: feature phone users n=400; smartphone users n=400; ages 20-59;
numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding
Source: Rakuten as cited in press release, Jan 23, 2015
190380

Note: n=1,089 ages 10+


Source: NTTCom Research (formerly goo Research) and japan.internet.com,
"4th Survey on Switch to Smartphones" as cited in press release, March 16,
2015
190516

31.8%

www.eMarketer.com

In another survey of internet users in Japan conducted


by JustSystems in April 2015, smartphones made up a
slightly larger proportion of mobile phones, accounting for
58.9%, with feature phones and those not using a phone
at all making up the remainder of responses.

www.eMarketer.com

The higher costs of purchasing smartphones and their


data packages appear to be dissuading some feature
phone users from trading up. In April 2015 polling
from Lifemedia Research Bank, almost half (49.4%) of
respondents who said they werent interested in using a
smartphone expressed concern about the higher charges
associated with usage, while 30.2% said the devices
themselves were too expensive.

Primary Type of Mobile Phone Used by Internet Users


in Japan, June 2014, Dec 2014 & April 2015
% of respondents
June 2014
52.9%

42.6% 4.5%

52.6%

42.4%

Dec 2014
5.0%

April 2015
58.9%
Smartphone

Feature phone

37.2% 3.9%
Not using a mobile phone

Note: n=1,100 ages 15-69


Source: JustSystems, "Mobile and Social Media Monthly Survey," May 15,
2015
190461

www.eMarketer.com

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 13

Reasons that Internet Users in Japan Are Not


Interested In Using a Smartphone, April 2015
% of respondents
Satisfied with feature phone
65.3%
Fees associated with usage are too high
49.4%
Smartphones (hardware) are too expensive
30.2%
Do not need PC-like functions on mobile phone
29.9%
Battery life is too short
15.3%

Apples control of the smartphone market understandably


results in the companys iOS found on a sizeable
number of devices in the market. According to Kantar
Worldpanel ComTech, devices running iOS made up
45.1% of smartphones sold in Japan in March 2015, while
Android was on 52.3% of devices sold that month. iOSs
smartphone sales share was a drop from 60.2% recorded
in December 2014, but that figure was likely boosted by
the recent release of Apples popular iPhone 6 and iPhone
6 Plus models.
Smartphone Sales Share in Japan, by OS,
Dec 2012-March 2015
% of total

Seems difficult to use


10.8%
The phone (hardware) is too big
9.6%

Android

iOS

Other

Dec 2012

32.2%

66.1%

1.7%

Have no interest in mobile devices in general


9.0%

June 2013

44.6%

53.7%

1.8%

Dec 2013

30.5%

68.7%

0.8%

Have no interest in using apps


8.1%

June 2014

58.8%

39.5%

1.7%

Dec 2014

38.3%

60.2%

1.5%

Other
2.4%

March 2015

52.3%

45.1%

2.5%

Note: n=334 ages 10-69 who do not use a smartphone


Source: Lifemedia Research Bank survey as cited in press release, April 8,
2015

183852

Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding


Source: Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, May 2015

189523

www.eMarketer.com

Another idiosyncratic characteristic of the mobile phone


market in Japan is its affinity for Apple devices.
According to data from IDC, the iPhone accounted for
58.7% of smartphones shipped in the country in 2014,
well above the 14.2% share controlled by domestic OEM
Sony. Next was Sharp (11.4%), then Samsung (4.7%) and
Kyocera (4.5%).

www.eMarketer.com

JustSystems data similarly found that Android held a lead


in the market over iOS, but not by as wide a gap as it
does in many other markets.
Smartphone User Share in Japan, by OS,
June 2014, Dec 2014 & April 2015
% of respondents
June 2014
54.5%

44.2%

1.4%

46.3%

0.3%

44.1%

1.5%

Dec 2014

Smartphone Shipment Share in Japan, by Brand, 2014


% of total
Kyocera
4.5%

Sharp
11.4%
Sony
14.2%

54.3%
iOS

Other

Note: April 2015 n=648 ages 15-69; numbers may not add up to 100% due
to rounding
Source: JustSystems, "Mobile and Social Media Monthly Survey," May 15,
2015
190463

Apple
58.7%

Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding


Source: International Data Corporation (IDC) as cited in press release,
March 12, 2015
189385

April 2015
Android

Other
6.6%

Samsung
4.7%

53.4%

www.eMarketer.com

4G connections are already well entrenched in Japan.


According to data from Mobidia and Ovum, there were
70.6 million 4G LTE mobile connections in the country at
the end of 2014, with a 47.2% penetration rate among the
overall population.

www.eMarketer.com

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 14

Data from Cisco Systems reported that 4G connections


made up a much higher proportion of all mobile
connections, at 43%, and projected that figure would
reach 63% by 2019. Cisco also found that 86% of mobile
traffic in Japan was conducted over 4G networks in
2014, and estimated that 96% of traffic would be on 4G
connections in five years time.

Mobile Phone* and Smartphone** Users in South


Korea, 2014-2019

Japan has three major mobile service providersNTT


Docomo, au and SoftBank. According to a survey of
smartphone users conducted by JustSystems in April
2015, 37.3% of respondents said they used NTT Docomo,
followed by au (30.6%) and SoftBank (25.2%).

Mobile phone
users* (millions)

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

40.5

40.8

41.1

41.4

41.6

41.9

82.6%

83.0%

83.5%

84.0%

84.5%

84.9%

% change

0.8%

0.7%

0.7%

0.7%

0.7%

0.6%

Smartphone
users** (millions)

32.2

33.6

34.6

35.6

36.5

37.0

% of mobile
phone users

79.5%

82.3%

84.3%

86.0%

87.6%

88.4%

% change

11.9%

4.3%

3.1%

2.7%

2.6%

1.5%

% of population

Note: *individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and use
the phone(s) at least once per month; **individuals of any age who own at
least one smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, July 2015
193907

Smartphone User Share in Japan, by Service Provider,


April 2015
% of respondents
Y!mobile
3.2%
Other
3.7%
SoftBank
25.2%

NTT Docomo
37.3%
au
30.6%

Note: n=648 ages 15-69


Source: JustSystems, "Mobile and Social Media Monthly Survey," May 15,
2015
190462

www.eMarketer.com

According to company filings, NTT Docomo had


66.6 million subscribers as of Q1 2015, while au had
43.5 million and SoftBank had 37.8 million.

Smartphone adoption in South Korea has been fast and


is now nearing totalitygrowing just 4.3% in 2015, down
from 11.9% the previous yearindicating that adoption
of the devices is slowing. This year, smartphone users
will total 33.6 million, growing to 37.0 million in 2019,
when they will make up 88.4% of mobile phone users in
the country.
Time spent with smartphones in South Korea is already
high. A survey conducted by the Korea Internet &
Security Agency (KISA) found that 72% of smartphone
users in the country spent at least 2 hours per day on
their devices in 2014.
Daily Time Spent Using Smartphones Among
Smartphone Users in South Korea, 2014
% of respondents
<1 hour
3.6%

SOUTH KOREA
The mobile phone market in South Korea is about as close
to saturation as it can get. The country is well-known
for its affinity for mobile devices, especially the phablet
form factor, which lands somewhere between a
smartphone and a tablet in terms of screen size but
allows for cellular service. eMarketer estimates that there
will be 40.8 million mobile phone users in South Korea
in 2015, reaching 83.0% of the overall population. The
number of mobile phone users will increase only slightly
to 41.9 million by 2019, when the penetration rate will
reach 84.9%.

www.eMarketer.com

3+ hours
45.7%

1-1.9 hours
24.4%

2-2.9 hours
26.3%

Note: ages 6+; average daily time spent using smartphones=171 minutes
Source: Korea Internet & Security Agency (KISA), "2014 Survey on the
Status of Mobile Internet Usage - Executive Summary," Dec 29, 2014
187040

www.eMarketer.com

4G networks have made very strong headway in South


Korea. According to Cisco Systems, 4G connections
accounted for half of all mobile connections in the country
last year, while 89% of mobile data traffic was conducted
over 4G networks.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 15

Mobile Data and Device Metrics in South Korea,


2014 & 2019
2014

2019

Smartphone Brand Used by Smartphone Users in


South Korea, by Demographic, Aug 2014
% of respondents in each group
Samsung LG G2/ iPhone Pantech Other
Galaxy S/ GPlex/
Vega
Note
Optimus

Mobile devices
Mobile device users (millions)

43.8

45.7

Mobile device user penetration (% of population)

88%

90%

39

48

Smartphones in use (millions)


Connected tablets in use (millions)
4G connections (% of total mobile connections)*

50%

52%

Smartphone data traffic (% of total)


Tablet data traffic (% of total)
Laptop data traffic (% of total)

Gender
Male

60%

19%

11%

5%

1%

4%

Female

56%

23%

9%

8%

2%

3%

Age

Mobile data
Mobile data traffic per user (MB/month)

2,505
87%
5%
2%

13,055

19-29

53%

24%

15%

7%

1%

1%

76%

30-39

55%

21%

16%

4%

1%

2%

13%

40-49

58%

17%

8%

12%

2%

4%

1%

50-59

63%

21%

5%

5%

3%

3%

66%

18%

3%

2%

0%

11%

58%

21%

10%

7%

1%

3%

Mobile video traffic (% of total mobile data traffic)

59%

75%

60+

4G data traffic (% of total mobile data traffic)

89%

96%

Total

Note: includes only devices connected to the mobile network; excludes


devices connected via Wi-Fi; *excludes low-power wide area (LPWA)
machine-to-machine (M2M) connections
Source: Cisco Systems, "Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI): Global Mobile
Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2014-2019," Feb 3, 2015
185491

Don't
know/
declined
to answer

www.eMarketer.com

South Korea also made waves in 2014 when it


announced its intent to develop the next generation
of mobile broadband technology: 5G. However, price
wars among wireless telecoms competing for users
have left companies lacking the deep pockets needed to
develop and build out the new technologies 5G networks
would require.
Unsurprisingly, a survey conducted by Gallup Korea in
August 2014 found that the Samsung Galaxy was the
most widely adopted device brand among smartphone
users in South Korea, used by 58% of respondents.
More than 21% used the LG G2, Gplex and Optimus
models, while 10% used Apples iPhone and 7% used the
Pantech Vega.

Note: n=792; read as saying that 11% of male smartphone users use an
iPhone; numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding
Source: Gallup Korea, "Gallup Korea Daily Opinion - Survey on Smartphone
Usage"; eMarketer calculations, Aug 27, 2014
186828

www.eMarketer.com

However, Counterpoint Research found that Apple had


made substantial gains in the South Korean smartphone
market following the release of the iPhone 6 and the
iPhone 6 Plus models in fall 2014. According to the
early 2015 blog post, Apple accounted for one-third of
smartphone sales in November 2014, while 46% of
smartphone sales went to Samsung in the same month.
According to company filings, mobile service provider SK
Telecom had 28.4 million subscribers as of Q1 2015. KT
had 18.2 million subscribers that quarter, while LG U+ had
11.4 million.

SOUTHEAST ASIA
Hong Kong
Data for Hong Kong indicates that the market for mobile
phones is becoming saturated. The penetration rate of
mobile devices among Hong Kongs population will reach
82.6% in 2015 and 84.4% by the end of the forecast
period, making it one of the most highly penetrated
markets tracked by eMarketer. We estimate that mobile
phone user growth will be slow, at 1.6% in 2015, giving
the region a total of 5.9 million mobile phone users. That
rate is expected to slow to just 0.7% by 2019, when the
region will have 6.1 million mobile phone users.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 16

eMarketer forecasts that 66.6% of Hong Kongs


population will be smartphone users in 2015, with that
figure expected to grow to 74.5% by 2019. The number
of smartphone users will reach 4.8 million people in
2015, a 7.1% increase over the previous year. By 2019,
smartphone users will number 5.4 million.

With Apple devices relatively unpopular in Malaysia, it


makes sense that Googles Android OS has a stronger
presence in the country. Mobile ad network InMobi found
that 80.4% of its ad impressions on mobile devices
during Q4 2014 were made on smartphones running
Android. Only 15.2% were on devices running iOS.

According to Hong Kongs telecom regulator the Office


of the Communications Authority (OFCA), Hong Kong
had 16.7 million mobile connections as of April 2015. The
number of mobile connections is so high because Hong
Kong is a market in which mobile phone users often
employ multiple SIM cards to quickly take advantage
of discounts offered by competing carriers. OFCA also
reported that there were 7.3 million 3G customers and
4.9 million 4G customers in Hong Kong as of March 2015.

Philippines

Malaysia
In 2015, Malaysia will have 21.7 million mobile phone
users, eMarketer estimates, giving the devices a 71.0%
penetration rate among the overall population. However,
the mobile phone adoption growth rate is slowing and will
decline from 4.2% in 2015 to 1.7% in 2019.
Smartphone users in Malaysia will number 10.1 million
this year, a 14.0% growth over 2014. By 2019, there will
be 13.7 million smartphone users in the country, with the
devices achieving a 57.3% penetration rate among mobile
phone users.
Research firm Gfk reported that 8.5 million smartphone
units were sold in Malaysia in 2014, with the smartphone
segment priced between $150 and $200 increasing its
volume share from 10% of the overall market in 2013
to 16% in 2014. The popularity of cheap smartphones
was also highlighted by Gfks data, which found that the
average price of smartphones sold in Malaysia fell to $315
in 2014, from $351 the previous year.
According to research from the IDC, Samsung
controlled the largest slice of the smartphone market
in Malaysia in Q4 2014. Samsung devices constituted
30% of smartphones shipped that quarter, followed by
Lenovo (17%), Asus (9%), Oppo (7%) and Apple (7%).
IDC expects both Taiwanese- and Chinese-produced
smartphones will make inroads in Malaysia this year,
gaining market share against both domestic OEMs and
Korean manufacturer Samsung. Sales of Apple devices,
meanwhile, are hamstrung by their high price point.

In 2015, 65.3% of the population in the Philippines will


use mobile phones regularly, eMarketer estimates, giving
the devices a user base of 71.6 million people. Mobile
phone user growth will be 5.2% this year and decline to
2.3% by 2019.
Smartphone user growth in the country will be
significantly higher, reaching 20.2% in 2015, totaling
26.2 million smartphone users23.9% of the overall
population. By 2019, 39.2 million people in the Philippines,
or 33.4% of its population, will own a smartphone.
The Philippines is a market where mobile phone users
are squarely in the middle of the transition from feature
phones to smartphones. According to the IDC, 47% of
mobile phones shipped in the country last year were
smartphones. IDC also reported that the number of
smartphones shipped exceeded the number of feature
phones shipped for the first time in Q3 2014. IDC credited
part of the rise of smartphones to declining prices that
often made them only marginally more expensive than
feature phones.
Local smartphone manufacturers have used marketing
and low prices to command a sizable share of the market
in the Philippines. IDC found that Filipino smartphone
manufacturers controlled the largest share of smartphone
shipments in 2014, accounting for 21.9% of them.
Samsung was second with 13.3%, then domestic
OEM MyPhone (11.2%), Chinas Lenovo (6.5%) and
homegrown Torque (4.8%).
The mobile service provider market in the Philippines
is an effective duopoly ruled by the Philippine Long
Distance Telephone Company (PLDT) and Globe Telecom.
According to company filings, PLDT had 69.6 million
cellular service subscribers at the end of Q1 2015, while
Globe had 41.6 million.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 17

Singapore
eMarketer estimates there will be 4.7 million mobile
phone users in Singapore in 2015, giving the devices
an 82.8% penetration rate. By 2019, there will be
5.2 million mobile phone users, with the penetration
rate reaching 84.4%.
Smartphones are already well entrenched in Singapore,
which is a highly developed market. eMarketer estimates
that 70.5% of the overall population4.0 million people
will use such a device in 2015. The smartphone user
growth rate will be just 5.7%% this year, a sign that the
market for the devices is maturing. By the end of the
forecast period, there will be 4.6 million smartphone
users, for a penetration rate of 75.0% among the
overall population.
According to BuddeComm, 3G and 4G networks are
already well entrenched in Singapore: More than 95%
of mobile connections operated on one of these faster
networks as of early 2014. Singapore was also the first
country to launch a 4G LTE-Advanced (LTE-A) mobile
network in May 2014 that allowed download speeds of up
to 300 megabits per second.

Android appears to have the upper hand in Thailand.


According to Q4 2014 data from InMobi, 65.5% of ad
impressions on the network were made on devices
running Googles Android OS. In comparison, 31.3% of
impressions were on devices running Apples iOS, while
just 1.9% were on those running Windows Phone.
The April 2015 GSMA report, Building Thailands Digital
Economy, citing data from Analysys Mason, found that
the penetration of mobile broadband networks in Thailand
was closer to that found in developed Asia-Pacific
countries than in emerging countries in the region.
However, 4G networks remained limited to large urban
areas, and plans to allocate additional spectrum for 4G
networks were delayed following the ouster of the ruling
government in May 2014.
GSMA also reported that three mobile service providers
dominated Thailands marketAdvanced Info Service
(AIS), Digital Total Access Communication (DTAC) and
True Corp. GSMA found that AIS had a 45.6% share of
mobile connections, followed by DTAC (28.9%) and True
Corp. (24.3%).

Vietnam

BlackBerry remains a relatively strong player in Singapore.


According to Q1 2015 data from mobile network InMobi,
29.2% of ad impressions through its network were made
on devices running BlackBerrys OS. Android was the
top OS on InMobis network, with 43.1% of impressions
taking place on its operating system and Apples iOS
drawing 26.6% of impressions.

eMarketer estimates that there will be 57.1 million mobile


phone users in Vietnam in 2015, giving the devices a
60.5% penetration rate. Mobile phone user growth in
the country is expected to slow, hitting 4.4% in 2015 but
falling to 2.6% by 2019, the end of the forecast period. By
that time there will be 64.5 million mobile phone users in
the country, for a penetration rate equal to 65.9%.

Thailand

Smartphone users in Vietnam will number 20.7 million


in 2015, but their ranks will swell to 35.2 million by
2019. Smartphone user growth will be substantially
sharp throughout the forecast period, at 24.3% in 2015,
and remain in the double digits through 2019 when it
will be 10.1%. During that same time, the smartphone
penetration rate will increase from 21.9% to 36.0%.

eMarketer estimates that there will be 45.6 million


mobile phone users in Thailand in 2015, with that
number increasing to 49.5 million by 2019. The mobile
phone penetration rate among the countrys population
will reach 67.0% in 2015, but user growth will be low at
3.4%. By the end of the forecast period, there will be
49.5 million mobile phone users, giving the devices a
72.0% penetration rate.
The smartphone user base is growing rapidly from a
fairly modest start point. Thailand will have 17.9 million
smartphone users in 2015, an increase of 16.2% over
the previous year. Smartphone penetration will be
relatively low at 26.3%. However, by 2019 there will be
24.8 million smartphone users in Thailand, a penetration
rate equal to 36.0%.

There are other signs that smartphone uptake in Vietnam


is continuing apace. The IDC reported that 11.6 million
smartphone units shipped in Vietnam in 2014, a 57%
year-over-year increase. IDC credited the robust growth to
the sharp drop in the prices of smartphones in Vietnam,
reporting that 60% of smartphones shipped that year cost
$150 or less.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 18

According to the IDC, Samsung remained the largest


smartphone vendor in Vietnam in 2014, responsible for
26% of devices shipped that year, down from 38% the
previous year. Microsoft saw its share of shipments
grow substantially, increasing from 16% in 2013 to 24%
in 2014. Oppo was responsible for 8% of smartphones
shipped, followed by Asus (6%) and Viettel (4%). But in
a sign of how fractured the smartphone market remains
in Vietnam, other vendors accounted for one-third of
shipments in the country.
However, Vietnam remains a market lacking 4G
networks. The countrys Ministry of Information and
Communications (MIC) announced in March 2015 that
it would officially launch 4G networks for commercial
purposes in Vietnam in 2016.

EUROPE
Western Europes mobile phone landscape is
advanced, with penetration rates close to saturation
in many markets. However, countries in the region
vary in regards to both mobile phone internet usage
and smartphone adoption.
eMarketer estimates that there will be 334.5 million
mobile phone users in Western Europe this year, with
the largest portion residing in Germany. By 2019, these
users will number 347.4 million, when 82.0% of Western
Europes population will use mobile phones, up from
80.1% in 2015.
Mobile Phone Users and Penetration in Western
Europe, by Country, 2013-2019
millions and % of population
2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Mobile phone users (millions)


Germany

64.1

64.9

65.6

66.1

66.4

66.6

66.7

UK

50.4

51.2

52.0

52.8

53.5

54.2

54.9

Italy

47.9

48.7

49.4

50.1

50.7

51.3

51.7

France

47.3

48.3

49.2

50.1

50.6

51.0

51.4

Spain

38.7

39.1

39.6

40.0

40.4

40.8

41.2

Netherlands

13.3

13.5

13.7

13.9

14.0

14.2

14.3

Sweden

7.6

7.8

7.9

8.1

8.2

8.3

8.4

Switzerland

6.4

6.5

6.6

6.7

6.8

6.9

7.0

Denmark

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.9

Finland

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

Norway

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.7

4.7

Ireland

3.8

3.9

4.0

4.1

4.1

4.2

4.2

Other

31.9

32.3

32.6

32.9

33.1

33.3

33.4

Western Europe 324.9

330.0

334.5

338.5

341.9

344.8

347.4

Mobile phone user penetration (% of population)


Norway

86.9% 87.0% 87.1% 87.2% 87.2% 87.2% 87.3%

Finland

85.9% 86.0% 86.2% 86.4% 86.5% 86.7% 86.9%

Denmark

82.6% 83.5% 84.3% 85.0% 85.7% 86.3% 86.8%

Spain

81.6% 82.0% 82.2% 82.4% 82.6% 82.8% 83.0%

Ireland

80.5% 81.1% 81.5% 81.9% 82.2% 82.4% 82.6%

Switzerland

79.5% 80.5% 81.3% 82.0% 82.5% 83.0% 83.5%

Germany

79.0% 80.2% 81.1% 81.8% 82.3% 82.7% 82.9%

Netherlands

79.0% 80.1% 80.9% 81.6% 82.2% 82.6% 83.0%

Sweden

79.0% 80.1% 80.9% 81.6% 82.1% 82.4% 82.6%

Italy

77.9% 78.9% 79.9% 80.7% 81.6% 82.4% 82.9%

UK

78.6% 79.2% 79.8% 80.4% 80.8% 81.2% 81.5%

France

74.9% 76.1% 77.3% 78.2% 78.7% 79.1% 79.4%

Other

75.9% 76.8% 77.5% 78.0% 78.6% 79.0% 79.3%

Western Europe 78.4% 79.3% 80.1% 80.7% 81.2% 81.7% 82.0%


Note: individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and use
the phone(s) at least once per month; numbers may not add up to total
due to rounding
Source: eMarketer, April 2015; confirmed and republished, July 2015
187828

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

www.eMarketer.com

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 19

The IDC reported that there are clear signs of saturation


for the mobile phone market in Western Europe, finding
that shipments of the devices declined by 5.2% year
over year in 2014, totaling 174.1 million units. Feature
phone shipments dropped by 39% during that time, while
smartphone shipments were up by 6.4%.
The mobile phone market in Central and Eastern Europe,
meanwhile, will trail that of Western Europe, with mobile
phone user penetration rates reaching 69.1% of the
population for 2015 and increasing to 72.6% by 2019,
eMarketer estimates.

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Mobile phone users (millions)


Russia

98.4

100.3

101.8

102.7

103.3

103.6

103.8

Turkey

55.9

57.8

60.0

61.8

63.2

64.3

65.1

Poland

25.8

26.7

27.7

28.2

28.5

28.8

28.9

7.4

7.5

7.6

7.7

7.8

7.8

7.8

96.0

98.4

100.9

103.0

105.3

107.1

108.5

Czech Republic
Other
Central &
Eastern Europe

eMarketer estimates that the number of mobile phone


users in Denmark will hit 4.7 million in 2015. As with
the other Nordic countries, Denmark is a highly mature
mobile phone market nearing its saturation point. In fact,
with an 84.3% penetration rate in 2015, Denmark trails
only two other countries in Western EuropeNorway
and Finlandby that metric. By 2019, mobile phone
user penetration in Denmark will increase only a few
percentage points to 86.8%.
Denmarks growth in mobile internet users, meanwhile,
will be stronger over eMarketers forecast period, hitting
14.6% in 2015 and then declining to 1.5% in 2019.

Mobile Phone Users and Penetration in Central &


Eastern Europe, by Country, 2013-2019
millions and % of population
2013

DENMARK

The relatively strong user growth rate can be attributed


to smartphone uptake in the country. In 2015, a projected
3.7 million individuals, or 67.1% of Denmarks population,
will use smartphones regularly. By 2019, there figures will
increase to 4.7 million and 82.8%.

283.5 290.7 297.9 303.4 308.0 311.5 314.2

Mobile phone user penetration (% of population)


Turkey

69.2% 70.8% 72.7% 74.1% 75.0% 75.5% 75.7%

Poland

67.2% 69.5% 72.3% 73.7% 74.6% 75.5% 76.1%

Czech Republic

70.2% 71.0% 71.7% 72.3% 72.7% 72.9% 72.9%

Russia

69.1% 70.4% 71.5% 72.2% 72.6% 72.9% 73.1%

Other

60.7% 62.4% 64.1% 65.6% 67.2% 68.5% 69.6%

Central &
Eastern Europe

65.9% 67.5% 69.1% 70.3% 71.3% 72.0% 72.6%

Note: individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and use
the phone(s) at least once per month; numbers may not add up to total
due to rounding
Source: eMarketer, April 2015; confirmed and republished, July 2015
187831

www.eMarketer.com

The rise of 4G networks in the region will facilitate


data-intensive behaviors in European markets. In the
Mobile Economy: Europe 2014 report, GSMA projected
that 4G LTE connections in Europe would increase
from 3% of total mobile connections at the end of 2013
to 53% by 2020. Most operators have found that an
increase in mobile data usage correlates to the availability
of faster mobile networks.
As a highly fragmented market, Europe is also facing a
wave of consolidation in the telecom sector as revenue
growth begins to flat-line, with no new customers left to
sign up for service plans.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 20

Smartphone Users and Penetration in Western


Europe, by Country, 2014-2019
millions and % of mobile phone users
2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Smartphone users (millions)

According to the Danish Business Authority, the number


of standard subscriptions in the country rose 21.0%
between H2 2013 and H2 2014 to reach 4.1 million.
Add-on data subscriptions saw slower growth, increasing
only 0.4% over that time to 1.2 million. The growth rate for
dedicated mobile data subscriptions was higher, hitting
4.9%, for a total of 1.2 million subscriptions.

Germany

36.4

42.3

47.4

51.3

54.1

55.5

UK

35.1

38.3

41.4

44.0

45.7

46.8

France

25.4

29.8

33.5

36.8

39.1

41.0

Italy

23.8

28.1

30.9

32.9

34.8

35.4

Spain

22.0

25.0

26.9

28.4

29.5

30.5

Netherlands

8.8

10.4

11.7

12.4

13.1

13.6

Sweden

5.4

6.0

6.6

7.2

7.6

7.9

Switzerland

4.3

4.8

5.3

5.8

6.2

6.4

Denmark

3.2

3.7

4.1

4.4

4.5

4.7

Standard subscriptions

3.4

4.1

21.0%

Norway

3.1

3.5

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.4

Add-on data subscriptions

1.2

1.2

0.4%

Ireland

2.7

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.5

3.6

Dedicated mobile data subscriptions

1.1

1.2

4.9%

Finland

2.5

2.9

3.1

3.4

3.6

3.8

Total

5.7

6.5

13.6%

Other
Western Europe

16.8

20.1

22.3

24.0

25.1

26.0

189.5

218.0

240.3

258.1

271.2

279.6

Smartphone user penetration (% of mobile phone users)

H2 2013 H2 2014 % change

Note: as of the end of each period


Source: Danish Business Authority, "Telestatistik Andet Halvr 2014," May
29, 2015
190592

Denmark

69.8%

79.6%

85.8%

90.9%

93.7%

95.4%

Norway

68.4%

76.5%

84.8%

89.4%

91.3%

92.8%

Sweden

69.0%

76.0%

82.0%

87.7%

92.2%

95.0%

Netherlands

64.8%

75.9%

84.5%

88.5%

92.5%

95.0%

Ireland

69.5%

74.2%

78.8%

82.4%

84.3%

85.6%

UK

68.6%

73.6%

78.3%

82.2%

84.3%

85.4%

Switzerland

65.8%

73.2%

79.5%

86.1%

90.0%

92.5%

Germany

56.0%

64.4%

71.7%

77.3%

81.3%

83.1%

Spain

56.3%

63.2%

67.2%

70.2%

72.3%

74.0%

Finland

55.0%

62.9%

69.0%

74.5%

79.4%

82.2%

France

52.5%

60.6%

66.9%

72.7%

76.6%

79.8%

Italy

48.9%

57.0%

61.8%

64.9%

67.9%

68.5%

Other

52.0%

61.7%

67.9%

72.5%

75.5%

77.7%

Western Europe

57.4%

65.2%

71.0%

75.5%

78.6%

80.5%

Note: individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the
smartphone(s) at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, July 2015
193878

Mobile Broadband Subscriptions in Denmark, by Type,


H2 2013 & H2 2014
millions and % change

www.eMarketer.com

Denmark has its own way of describing the various


mobile broadband options available to its users; mobile
phone users typically purchase voice and data packages
separately. According to data from the Danish Business
Authority, mobile broadband in Denmark is defined
as access to the internet via a mobile phone, laptop
or tablet with a download speed of 256 kilobits per
second. A standard subscription consists of a mobile
broadband subscription that includes voice, data and
SMS/MMS. An add-on data subscription consists of a
data subscription with a fixed amount of data at a fixed
maximum download speed. As the name implies, this
subscription is purchased separately and added to a voice
package. Finally, a dedicated mobile data subscription
is not intended for mobile phones but for use with mobile
internet devices like dongles.

www.eMarketer.com

The Danish Business Authority also released figures that


provided a breakdown of prepaid vs. postpaid mobile
connections and found that only 871,000 of 7.1 million
connections were prepaid in H2 2014.
Mobile Connections and Penetration in Denmark, by
Type, H2 2013 & H2 2014
thousands, % change and % of population
Mobile phone
Prepaid
Dedicated mobile data
Total mobile subscriptions
% of population

H2 2013

H2 2014

% change

7,031

7,100

868

871

0.4%

1,109

1,163

4.9%

8,140

8,263

1.5%

143.8%

146.0%

1.5%

1.0%

Note: as of the end of each period; numbers may not add up to total due to
rounding
Source: Danish Business Authority, "Telestatistik Andet Halvr 2014," May
29, 2015
190594

www.eMarketer.com

According to data from International Data Corporation


Nordic (IDC Nordic), Apple sold the most smartphones
in Denmark in Q1 2015, making up 45% of the market.
Samsung took a 36% share, followed by Sony (8%), LG
Electronics (4%) and Nokia- or Microsoft-branded phones
(3%). Despite the fact that Samsung offers devices at a
higher number of price points than Apple, including the
lower-end devices, Apple sales were still stronger, most
likely due to the fall 2014 release of its iPhone 6 and
iPhone 6 Plus models in Denmark.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 21

Mobile Phone Subscription Share in Denmark,


by Service Provider, H2 2014
% of total

Smartphone Sales Share in Denmark, by Brand,


Q1 2015
% of total

DLG Tele
1.3%
Other
6.7%

Nokia/Microsoft
3%

Sony
8%

LG
4%

Other
4%

Hi3G Denmark
13.2%

Apple
45%

Telia
17.5%

Samsung
36%

Telenor
23.6%

Source: International Data Corporation Nordic (IDC Nordic) as cited by


Berlingske Business, May 28, 2015
190610

www.eMarketer.com

Data from Danske Medier (IAB Denmark) found that 47%


of smartphone owners had an Apple device as of May
2015. Samsung was the next-most-popular brand, owned
by 24% of smartphone owners, followed by Sony (8%),
Nokia (7%) and HTC (6%).
Smartphone Owner Share in Denmark, by Brand,
May 2015
% of total
Apple

47%

Samsung

24%

Sony
Nokia
HTC

8%
7%

LG

2%

Huawei

3%

Other

Note: ages 15-75; numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding
Source: Danske Medier (IAB Denmark) and Kreativitet & Kommunikation,
"Mobile Devices 2015" conducted by TNS Gallup Denmark as cited in press
release, June 11, 2015
191191

Note: as of the end of H2 2014; numbers may not add up to 100% due to
rounding
Source: Danish Business Authority, "Telestatistik Andet Halvr 2014," May
29, 2015
190590

www.eMarketer.com

FINLAND
With an 86.2% mobile phone user penetration rate
projected for 2015, Finland lags behind only Norway in
Western Europe by that metric. Finlands mobile phone
market is nearly saturated, with the annual mobile phone
user growth rate hitting 0.3% in 2015 and declining to just
0.1% by 2019. eMarketer estimates there will be
4.5 million mobile phone users in the country in 2015,
with that figure barely increasing to 4.6 million users
by 2019.
Mobile internet use in Finland will see a sharper increase,
with user growth increasing 14.4% in 2015. In 2019, the
mobile internet user growth rate will decline to 3.4%, as
the vast majority of those who go online will be on the
internet by that time.

6%

2%

TDC
37.8%

www.eMarketer.com

In terms of carriers, there are four major players in


Denmark: TDC, Telenor, Telia and Hi3G Denmark.
According to H2 2014 data from the Danish Business
Authority, TDC held 37.8% of the market, followed by
Telenor (23.6%), Telia (17.5%) and Hi3G (13.2%). In its
earnings report for Q1 2015, TDC reported that it had lost
some 21,000 private and business customers in 2014,
likely due to its competitors lower prices. (In December,
TeliaSonera, which controls Telia, announced that it
would merge its Danish operations with Telenor into a
joint venture that would have an estimated 3.5 million
subscribers, a figure equal to about 40% of the market.)

Smartphone user growth will also remain relatively high in


the near term, hitting 14.7% in 2015 and staying in double
digits in 2016 before declining to 3.7% by the end of the
forecast period. eMarketer projects that the number of
smartphone users in Finland will climb from 2.9 million
this year to 3.8 million in 2019, reaching 54.2% to 71.4%
of the overall population during that time.
As the number of smartphones in Finland increases,
so too does the number of 4G LTE-capable devices.
According to data from Aalto University, 4G LTE-enabled
mobile phones accounted for almost one in five of
all mobile phones in use in 2014, up from 7% the
previous year.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 22

4G LTE-Capable Mobile Phone Share in Finland,


2013 & 2014
% of total mobile phones in use
19%

Share of Mobile Phones in Use in Finland, by Brand,


Sep 2014
% of total
Nokia
55.0%
Samsung
26.5%
Apple
10.5%
Doro
2.0%

7%

Sony Ericsson
1.5%
LG
1.0%

2013

2014

Note: includes feature phones and smartphones


Source: Aalto University, "Mobile Handset Population in Finland
2005-2014," March 26, 2015
190061

www.eMarketer.com

According to Deloittes Global Mobile Consumer Survey,


the country is set for the wide adoption of 4G networks
in 2015. The report found that mobile broadband users in
Finland prefer to use 4G cellular connections over Wi-Fi,
probably because 4G connections are often speedier and
public Wi-Fi spots remain relatively rare in the country.
Download speeds for 4G connections in Finland were
estimated at between 15 megabits per second and 18
megabits per second, making them about five times
faster than download speeds offered on 3G networks.
September 2014 data from Aalto University found that
homegrown Nokia was the market leader in Finland,
accounting for 55.0% of all mobile phones. Samsung
was next with a 26.5% market share, followed by
Apple (10.5%). The rest of the brands trailed Apple by a
significant margin.

HTC
1.0%
Other
2.5%
Note: includes feature phones and smartphones
Source: Aalto University, "Mobile Handset Population in Finland
2005-2014," March 26, 2015
190060

www.eMarketer.com

Smartphone users in Finland still demonstrate


strong loyalty to the Nokia mobile phone unit, which
was acquired by Microsoft in April 2014. (Microsoft
dropped the use of Nokia branding on its Lumia line of
smartphones in fall 2014, although it retained the ability to
use the Nokia brand on its feature phones for around 10
years.) In a poll of smartphone users conducted by TNS
Gallup Finland for Sanoma, Nokia- or Microsoft-branded
smartphones accounted for 37% of user share in 2015,
followed by Samsung (33%) and Apple (16%). However,
Nokia has seen its share decline from 2012, when it
controlled a 61% share in its home market.
Smartphone User Share in Finland, by Brand,
2012 & 2015
% of respondents

Apple
16%

Other
5%

Nokia
61%

Samsung
18%

Other
14%
Nokia/MS
37%

Apple
16%

Samsung
33%
2012

2015

Note: ages 15-69


Source: Sanoma, "Suomalaiset lypuhelimen ja tabletin kyttjin 2015"
conducted by TNS Gallup Finland, April 2, 2015
188929

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

www.eMarketer.com

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 23

Due to Nokia/Microsofts strength in Finland, the country


is one of the few markets where the Windows Phone
OS has a strong presence. According to September 2014
findings from Aalto University, 26.7% of smartphones in
Finland ran the Windows Phone OS, a figure that still put
it behind the 42.5% market share controlled by Googles
Android OS. The Symbian OSonce heavily used by
Nokia phonesalso retains a noticeable presence in
the country.
Share of Smartphones in Use in Finland, by OS,
Sep 2014
% of total
Symbian (touch)
5.8%
Other
0.8%

Symbian
6.7%
iOS
17.5%

Android
42.5%
Windows Phone
26.7%

Source: Aalto University, "Mobile Handset Population in Finland


2005-2014," March 26, 2015
190062

www.eMarketer.com

Finland has three major mobile service providers:


Elisa, TeliaSonera and DNA. According to the Finnish
Communications Regulatory Authority (FICORA), Elisa
held 40% of the countrys mobile phone subscription
share in 2014, followed by TeliaSonera (35%) and
DNA (24%).
Mobile Phone Subscription Share in Finland,
by Service Provider, 2014
% of total

According to company filings, Elisa had 3.7 million


mobile phone subscribers in Q1 2015, followed by
TeliaSonera with 3.2 million subscribers and DNA with
2.5 million users.

FRANCE
eMarketer estimates that France will have the
fourth-highest number of mobile phone users in Western
Europe in 2015 with 49.2 million, behind Germany, the
UK and Italy. Frances mobile phone market is nearing its
saturation point; 77.3% of the population will use mobile
phones this year, a 1.9% increase over 2014. By the end
of the forecast period, the annual mobile phone user
growth rate will be only 0.8%.
Mobile internet use in France will see steady growth over
the next few years. eMarketer projects that the number
of mobile internet users in the country will increase from
31.5 million to 42.8 million between 2015 and 2019, with
growth rates of 17.5% and 4.6% over that timeframe.
Frances smartphone user base will also grow over the
next few years, increasing from 29.8 million to 41.0 million
between 2015 and 2019. Smartphone penetration among
the countrys population will reach 63.4% by the end of
the forecast period, up from 46.8% in 2015.
Although the rollout of 4G in France trailed that of the US,
adoption of faster networks is now growing. According
to 451 Research, there will be 9.4 million 4G LTE mobile
connections in France in 2015, and that figure is projected
to increase to 18.7 million by 2018.
4G LTE Mobile Connections in France, 2014-2018
millions
18.7

Other
1%
DNA
24%

15.7
Elisa
40%

12.6
9.4

TeliaSonera
35%
6.3
Note: there were 9.4 million mobile subscriptions in Finland in 2014,
including data and voice transmission services
Source: Finnish Communications Regulatory Authority (FICORA),
"Toimialakatsaus 2014 (01/2015)," March 18, 2015
188150

www.eMarketer.com

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: 451 Research, "Mobile Broadband Forecast," Sep 2014 as cited in


company blog, Dec 11, 2014
183222

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

www.eMarketer.com

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 24

Figures from Cisco Systems showed that 4Gs footprint


was slight in France last year, accounting for only 15%
of total mobile connections. Cisco estimates that figure
will grow to 47% by 2019. Additionally, the percentage of
mobile traffic traveling over 4G networks is expected to
increase from 38% in 2014 to 81% in 2019.

When it comes to operating systems, Android devices


have a strong presence in France. March 2015 data from
Kantar Worldpanel ComTech showed that 64.6% of the
smartphones sold in France ran Googles OS, while 19.4%
used Apples iOS. Windows Phone was on 14.1% of
devices sold, followed by BlackBerry with just 1.0%.

Mobile Data and Device Metrics in France,


2014 & 2019

Smartphone Sales Share in France, by OS,


June 2012-March 2015
% of total

2014

2019

Android

iOS

BlackBerry

Other

June 2012

60.2%

13.5%

Dec 2012

61.0%

23.7%

2.3%

9.8%

14.2%

5.0%

5.1%

June 2013

68.6%

5.1%

12.7%

9.5%

2.9%

Dec 2013

6.3%

66.0%

20.2%

11.3%

1.6%

0.8%

June 2014

71.4%

14.7%

10.6%

1.0%

2.3%

Dec 2014

64.7%

23.0%

11.6%

0.6%

0.1%

March 2015

64.6%

19.4%

14.1%

1.0%

0.9%

Mobile devices
Mobile device users (millions)

56.2

59.5

Mobile device user penetration (% of population)

87%

90%

43

61

15%

47%

Smartphones in use (millions)


Connected tablets in use (millions)
4G connections (% of total mobile connections)*
Mobile data traffic

Windows

Mobile data traffic per user (MB/month)

547

3,687

Smartphone data traffic (% of total)

84%

79%

Tablet data traffic (% of total)

2%

8%

Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding


Source: Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, May 2015

Laptop data traffic (% of total)

10%

2%

183844

Mobile video traffic (% of total mobile data traffic)

55%

73%

4G data traffic (% of total mobile data traffic)

38%

81%

Note: includes only devices connected to the mobile network; excludes


devices connected via Wi-Fi; *excludes low-power wide area (LPWA)
machine-to-machine (M2M) connections
Source: Cisco Systems, "Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI): Global Mobile
Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2014-2019," Feb 3, 2015
185458

www.eMarketer.com

According to company filings, the mobile service provider


Orange had 28.3 million subscribers in Q1 2015. SFR had
22.5 million subscribers, while Bouygues had 11.3 million
and Free Mobile had 10.5 million.

www.eMarketer.com

Samsung is the top smartphone brand in France,


according to data from Deloitte. The firm polled internet
users in June 2014 and found that 37% owned a
Samsung device. iPhones were owned by 17% of
respondents, followed by Nokia (13%) and Sony
Ericsson (6%).

GERMANY

Smartphone Ownership Among Internet Users in


France, by Brand, 2013 & 2014
% of respondents

Germanys population of mobile phone internet users


will increase at a significantly faster pace. eMarketer
estimates that between 2015 and 2019, the number of
mobile internet users will grow from 43.1 million to
56.5 million. By the end of the forecast period, 70.1%
of the overall population in Germany will use the mobile
internet, up from 53.3% in 2015.

Germanys mobile phone user base will grow slowly


over the next few years. eMarketer estimates an annual
expansion rate that will not exceed 1.0% over the forecast
period. The countrys mobile phone users will number
65.6 million in 2015 and 66.7 million by 2019.

2013

2014

Samsung

39%

37%

iPhone

15%

17%

Nokia

14%

13%

Sony Ericsson

7%

6%

BlackBerry

5%

4%

LG

5%

4%

HTC

3%

3%

Carrier-branded

2%

3%

Motorola

2%

1%

Huawei

1%

1%

ZTE

1%

1%

Google Nexus

1%

Smartphone ownership rates among Germanys


population will also increase, climbing from 52.2% in 2015
to 68.9% in 2019. Germanys smartphone user base will
expand from 42.3 million to 55.5 million, making it the
largest smartphone market in Western Europe.

Note: ages 18+; current primary smartphone


Source: Deloitte, "Etude sur les usages mobiles 2014. Focus sur le march
franais" conducted by Ipsos, Sep 30, 2014
181159

www.eMarketer.com

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 25

Bitkom and the European Information Technology


Observatory (EITO) also foresee the continued rise
of smartphones in Germany. According to their data,
smartphone sales will reach 24.6 million in 2015, up 3.9%
from 2014.
Smartphone Sales and Revenues in Germany,
2013-2015
millions of units, billions of and % change
2013

2014

2015

Smartphone sales (millions of units)

22.6

23.6

24.6

% change

4.8%

4.7%

3.9%

Smartphone revenues (billions of )

8.2

8.3

8.2

% change

9.2%

1.7%

-1.2%

Source: BITKOM and European Information Technology Observatory (EITO),


"Konjunktur und Trends in der Mobilkommunikation" in collaboration with
International Data Corporation (IDC), Feb 23, 2015
186195

According to company filings, Telefnica Germany had


42.1 million subscribers in Q1 2015, while Telekom had
39.2 million and Vodafone had 30.9 million.

www.eMarketer.com

Data from Mobidia and Ovum found that 4G LTE


connections in Germany numbered only 9.0 million as
of December 2014, for a 7.8% penetration rate among
the population. Cisco Systems had a higher estimate,
reporting that 4G connections made up 8% of total
mobile connections in 2014 and would account for 47%
of connections by 2019. Cisco also found that 26% of
mobile data traffic traveled over 4G networks in 2014.
In terms of operating systems, Android remains tough
to beat in Germany. According to data from Kantar
Worldpanel ComTech, 71.3% of smartphones sold in
Germany in March 2015 had Googles OS installed on
them. Apples iOS was on 18.3% of devices, while
Windows Phone was on 8.7%.
Smartphone Sales Share in Germany, by OS,
June 2012-March 2015
% of total
Android

iOS

Windows

Other

June 2012

72.2%

15.5%

6.1%

6.2%

Dec 2012

69.0%

21.7%

3.4%

5.9%

June 2013

79.2%

12.4%

6.2%

2.2%

Dec 2013

75.4%

17.3%

5.9%

1.4%

June 2014

81.4%

10.6%

6.4%

1.6%

Dec 2014

71.0%

20.9%

7.4%

0.7%

March 2015

71.3%

18.3%

8.7%

1.6%

Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding


Source: Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, May 2015
183845

Following the October 2014 completion of the merger of


the E-Plus Group and Telefnica Germany (also referred to
by its German name, Telefnica Deutschland), Germany
was left with three major wireless service providers:
Telekom (operated by former state monopoly Deutsche
Telekom and formerly known as T-Mobile), Vodafone
and Telefnica Germany (which still operates the E-Plus
brand, a wholly-owned subsidiary). According to data from
Bundesnetzagentur, the new Telefnica Germany became
the largest mobile operator after absorbing E-Plus in
Q4 2014.

www.eMarketer.com

ITALY
Like most of the rest of Western Europe, Italy has all of
the hallmarks of a mature mobile market. By eMarketer
projections, mobile phone users in the country will
number 49.4 million in 2015 and climb slightly to
51.7 million by 2019. The mobile phone penetration rate
will also increase, rising from 79.9% to 82.9% of the
population over the forecast period.
Mobile internet usage in Italy is expected to increase at
a fairly high rate in the coming years. eMarketer projects
that growth in mobile internet usage will hit 17.7% in
2015 but will drop to single-digit percentages come 2016.
By the end of the forecast period, Italy will record a
growth rate of just 1.6%, when mobile internet users in
the country will reach 36.6 million, up from 30.1 million
in 2015.
Smartphone users in Italy will also see an increase in
the near term. eMarketer projects that the number of
smartphone owners will increase from 28.1 million in
2015 to 35.4 million by 2019. The smartphone user growth
rate will hit 18.2% in 2015 but steadily decline over the
following four years to just 1.8%.
The Osservatorio Mobile Economy del Politecnico di
Milano estimated that the number of smartphones and
tablets in use in the country totaled 35.0 million in 2014
and will hit 40.0 million in 2015.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 26

The slow uptake of 4G in Italy may be due to prohibitively


high costs, both for 4G data plans and 4G-capable
devices. According to H2 2014 polling of internet users
in Italy conducted by Ipsos MORI for Deloitte, 22% of
respondents said 4G data plans are too expensive, while
16% thought the 4G devices had a high price point. In
addition, 16% were unfamiliar with 4G, while 12% said
they lacked coverage of the faster network.

Smartphones and Tablets in Use in Italy, 2014 & 2015


millions
40.0
35.0

2014
Smartphones

Reasons that Internet Users in Italy Do Not Have a 4G


Package, H2 2014
% of respondents

10.0

9.5

4G package is too expensive

2015

Satisfied with the current performance of my coverage

Tablets

Source: Osservatorio Mobile Economy del Politecnico di Milano, "Mobile


Economy: la via per la digitalizzazione del Paese" as cited by Interactive
Advertising Bureau Italia (IAB Italia), May 25, 2015
190561

www.eMarketer.com

So far, 4G networks have only played a small part in


Italys mobile traffic. According to Cisco Systems,
4G connections accounted for only 2% of all mobile
connections in 2014, while 14% of mobile data traffic
traveled over 4G. Cisco projects that by 2019, 4G
connections will make up 37% of connections and
that 77% of mobile traffic will be conducted over
4G networks.

Not familiar with 4G

16%

Use Wi-Fi

15%
12%

187259

www.eMarketer.com

However, the Osservatorio Mobile Economy del


Politecnico di Milano reported that telecoms increased
the amount of money spent on improving 4G LTE
networks in 2014, and that such networks now covered
80% of the population.

2019

Mobile device users (millions)

53.6

55.0

Mobile device user penetration (% of population)

88%

90%

27

63

Mobile devices

2%

37%

Mobile data traffic per user (MB/month)

854

5,952

Smartphone data traffic (% of total)

59%

68%

6%

18%

4G connections (% of total mobile connections)*

16%

20%

Source: Deloitte, "Global Mobile Consumer Survey 2014: la prospettiva


italiana - Il digitale parte dal mattinoe gli italiani battono tutti!" conducted
by Ipsos MORI, Dec 10, 2014

2014

Connected tablets in use (millions)

4G device is too expensive

No 4G coverage

Mobile Data and Device Metrics in Italy, 2014 & 2019

Smartphones in use (millions)

22%

Mobile data traffic

According to April 2015 findings from comScore


MobiLens, Samsung devices led the smartphone market
in Italy, with 45.0% of subscribers using the brands
devices. Apple was next with a 16.8% share, followed by
Nokia (13.1%), LG (5.9%) and Huawei (4.1%).
Smartphone Subscriber Share in Italy, by Brand,
April 2014 & April 2015
% of total
April 2014

April 2015

Samsung

43.8%

45.0%

74%

Apple

16.3%

16.8%

77%

Nokia

18.7%

13.1%

Note: includes only devices connected to the mobile network; excludes


devices connected via Wi-Fi; *excludes low-power wide area (LPWA)
machine-to-machine (M2M) connections
Source: Cisco Systems, "Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI): Global Mobile
Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2014-2019," Feb 3, 2015

LG

5.3%

5.9%

Huawei

2.3%

4.1%

Sony

3.3%

3.2%

HTC

2.5%

2.0%

185471

Google

1.3%

1.9%

Alcatel

1.1%

1.1%

BlackBerry

2.3%

1.1%

Other

3.1%

5.8%

Tablet data traffic (% of total)


Laptop data traffic (% of total)
Mobile video traffic (% of total mobile data traffic)
4G data traffic (% of total mobile data traffic)

31%
55%
14%

5%

www.eMarketer.com

Note: ages 13+; 3-month average for periods ending April 2014 and April
2015
Source: comScore MobiLens; eMarketer calculations, June 12, 2015
191258

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

www.eMarketer.com

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 27

Smartphone users in Italy favor Android devices over


those running other operating systems, according to
figures from Kantar Worldpanel ComTech. The research
firm found that devices running Googles OS accounted
for 66.2% of smartphone sales in Italy in March 2015,
compared with 17.5% for those running Apples iOS.
Surprisingly, Windows Phone devices accounted for
14.4% of the smartphone sales share for that month.

4G has seen very low adoption rates in the Netherlands.


According to a poll of mobile phone users in the
country conducted by Deloitte in July 2014, only 12% of
respondents had a 4G LTE subscription.
Mobile Phone Users in the Netherlands Who Have a
4G LTE Subscription, July 2014
% of respondents
Don't know
14%

Smartphone Sales Share in Italy, by OS,


June 2012-March 2015
% of total
Android

iOS

June 2012

54.6%

16.7%

Dec 2012

54.2%

23.1%

June 2013

70.7%

16.4%

Dec 2013

66.2%

June 2014

Windows

BlackBerry

Other

8.3%

5.5%

14.9%

12.7%

2.6%

7.4%

7.8%

2.5%

2.7%

12.8%

17.1%

1.8%

2.1%

75.9%

12.3%

10.1%

1.0%

0.7%

Dec 2014

67.3%

18.3%

12.7%

0.8%

0.9%

March 2015

66.2%

17.5%

14.4%

1.3%

0.7%

Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding


Source: Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, May 2015
183848

Yes
12%
No
74%

Note: n=1,846 ages 18-75 who own or have access to a mobile


phone/smartphone
Source: Deloitte, "Global Mobile Consumer Survey 2014, The Pulse of the
Mobile Nation (The Dutch Perspective)" conducted by Ipsos MORI, Nov 18,
2014
190105

www.eMarketer.com

According to company filings, mobile service provider


Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM) had the largest number of
mobile subscribers in Italy in Q1 2015, with 30.1 million.
Vodafone was next, with 25.2 million subscribers,
followed by Wind (21.4 million) and Three (10.0 million).

NETHERLANDS
With an 80.9% mobile phone user penetration rate in
2015, eMarketer estimates, the Netherlands represents
a relatively mature market that is similar to several others
in Western Europe. By 2019, 83.0% of the population will
use the devices regularly. The number of mobile phone
users, meanwhile, will increase only slightly, rising from
13.7 million to 14.3 million during that time.
The mobile internet user base, however, is expected to
increase by 3 million over the next four years, from
10.9 million in 2015 to 13.9 million in 2019. The growth
rate for mobile internet users will remain in the double
digits in 2015 and 2016, hitting 17.2% this year, before
falling to 2.1% in 2019.
eMarketer estimates that the number of smartphone
users in the Netherlands will see steady growth,
reaching 10.4 million individuals in 2015 and increasing
to 13.6 million by 2019.

www.eMarketer.com

Deloitte cited the wide availability of free Wi-Fi in the


Netherlands as the reason 4G service has not yet caught
on, finding that users there are willing to sacrifice the
faster speeds of cellular networks in order to cut costs.
But Deloitte also predicts that 4G adoption will increase
as 4G-capable devices become more affordable and
the cost of data packages associated with the faster
networks decreases.
According to data from Net Marketshare, Android and iOS
are in a battle for first place in terms of the dominant OS
on mobile devices and tablets combined. The research
firm found that Googles Android held 51.0% of the
smartphone and tablet market in June 2015, followed by
Apples iOS (40.8%), Java Platform, Micro Edition (3.2%),
Windows Phone (2.3%) and Symbian (1.4%).
In the Netherlands, KPN is the largest mobile service
provider, controlling 30% to 35% of connections in
Q4 2014, according to the Authority for Consumers &
Markets (ACM). Vodafone was responsible for 20% to
25% of connections during that time, while T-Mobile held
15% to 20%.
According to company filings for Q1 2015, KPN had
9.4 million subscribers as of that quarter, followed by
Vodafone (5.2 million) and T-Mobile (3.8 million).

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 28

NORWAY
Norways state-owned oil wealth has translated to a
well-heeled population with cash to spend on mobile
devices. Its no surprise, then, that the mobile phone
use in Norway is close to ubiquitous. In 2015, 87.1% of
the countrys population will use mobile phones, giving
Norway the highest penetration rate of all Western
European countries tracked by eMarketer. That figure will
grow very slightly by 2019 to 87.3%, with mobile phone
user growth projected at 1.3% in 2015 and just 1.0%
by 2019.
According to Stiftelsen Elektronikkbransjen, a
Norway-based electronic equipment trade group, mobile
phone sales fell by 12.5% between 2013 and 2014,
with a total of 2.1 million devices sold in the latter year.
Elektronikkbransjen accounted for this drop by noting
that the mobile phone market in Norway is now mature,
and most consumers have fully shifted from buying a
handset for the first time to just replacing one they own
already. Consumers who already own a mobile phone
wait an average of almost 2.5 years before buying a
replacement device.
In another sign of the slowing mobile phone market
in Norway, the Norwegian Communications Authority
(Nkom) reported that mobile phone connections in the
country had increased only 0.9% between 2013 and 2014,
to reach a total of 5.91 million.
Mobile Phone Connections in Norway, 2013 & 2014
millions and % change
5.86

5.91
(0.9%)

Smartphone user figures will increase as well. eMarketer


projects 3.5 million individuals in the country will use such
a device regularly by the end of 2015, a 13.3% increase
over 2014. By the end of the forecast period, smartphone
users will number 4.4 million, for a 2.6% increase year
over year, as the market approaches saturation.
Consumer purchases of smartphones also fell from
2.16 million in 2013 to 1.95 million in 2014, according
to Stiftelsen Elektronikkbransjen, again because most
consumers are no longer buying their first smartphone
but replacing an existing one.
In a demographic profile of smartphone users in the
country from Statistics Norway, those devices had the
highest penetration rate among mobile phone users
ages 16 to 19, at 97%. Overall smartphone adoption
was highest among the 13-to-44-year-old cohort, while
males used mobile phones at a slightly higher level than
did females.
Demographic Profile of Smartphone Users in Norway,
2014
% of mobile phone users in each group
Gender
Male

81%

Female

78%

Age
9-12

77%

13-15

94%

16-19

97%

20-24

95%

25-44

92%

45-66
67-79
Total

75%
31%
80%

Note: who have access to a smartphone at home


Source: Statistics Norway, "Norwegian media barometer 2014," April 14,
2015
188921

2013

2014

Note: includes active prepaid cards


Source: Norwegian Communications Authority (Nkom), "Det norske
markedet for elektroniske kommunikasjonstjenester," May 20, 2015
190277

www.eMarketer.com

However, the number of mobile internet users will


increase from 3.5 million in 2015 to 4.4 million in 2019,
eMarketer estimates, reaching 67.8% and 81.8% of the
population, respectively.

www.eMarketer.com

4G is now well established in Norway, so much so that


the countrys largest wireless carrier, Telenor, already has
plans to shut down its 3G network by 2020. In January
2015, Telenor reported that the number of 4G-capable
phones on its network had surpassed the number of 3G
phones for the first time, accounting for 42.7% to 3Gs
40.8%. 2G telephones made up 16.5% of devices on
Telenors network.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 29

In terms of OS share, Apples iOS has proven to be


quite popular in Norway. According to data from TNS
Gallup Norway that measured internet session share
among all operating systemsincluding those running
on computers, tablets and mobile phoneson
Norwegian-language sites, iOS running on a phone led
mobile-specific operating systems with a 22% share.
Android running on a phone had a 14% share, while
Windows Phone commanded only a 1% share.
Internet Session Share in Norway, by OS, Dec 2014
% of total
Android (tablet)
2%

Windows Phone
1%
Other
1%

Mac OS
8%
Android (phone)
14%

Windows
36%

iOS (iPad)
16%

iOS (iPhone)
22%

Note: includes sessions from computers, tablets and mobile phones on


Norwegian-language websites only; 37% of sessions are from mobile
phones and 18% of sessions are from tablets
Source: TNS Gallup Norway, "rsrapport internettbruk 2014," Feb 12, 2015
190450

www.eMarketer.com

Telenor controlled the largest swath of the mobile service


market in its home country in 2014, at a 50.1% share,
according to Nkom. TeliaSonera held a 22.9% share,
followed by Network Norway (12.2%) and Tele2 (5.7%).
Mobile Phone Connection Share in Norway,
by Service Provider, 2014
% of total
Tele2
5.7%
Network
Norway
12.2%

Other
9.0%

Telenor
50.1%

TeliaSonera
22.9%

Note: includes active prepaid cards; numbers may not add up to 100% due
to rounding
Source: Norwegian Communications Authority (Nkom), "Det norske
markedet for elektroniske kommunikasjonstjenester," May 20, 2015
190270

RUSSIA
Mobile phone adoption in Russia has stagnated,
increasing just 1.5% in 2015 and 0.2% by 2019. eMarketer
estimates that there will be 101.8 million mobile phone
users in Russia this year, with that figure increasing to
103.8 million in four years. Mobile phone penetration
will also remain relatively low, reaching 71.5% of the
population in 2015 and climbing to 73.1% by 2019.
Mobile internet use will see stronger growth, with users
numbering 57.8 million in 2015a 14.6% increase over
the prior year. eMarketer forecasts that mobile phone
internet users will increase to 76.0 million by 2019,
growing 3.7% year over year.
eMarketer projects that smartphone user growth in
Russia will be significantly stronger than that of mobile
phone growth, increasing by 18.7% in 2015, when
smartphone users in the country will total 53.8 million.
By 2019, we expect there will be 73.3 million smartphone
users in the country.
There are recent signs that the drop in oil prices has
affected the smartphone market in Russia, as has
the tough trade sanctions imposed on the country by
the US and the European Union in response to the
fighting in Ukraine, according to the IDC. The research
firm reported that consumers in Russia rushed to
purchase smartphones in late 2014 as the declining
value of the Russian ruble made imported devices
increasingly expensive.
4G devices have not made strong inroads in Russia.
According to data from Mobidia and Ovum, 4G LTE
connections totaled 5.6 million in the country in
December 2014, giving such connections a 2.3%
penetration rate among the population.
Figures from Cisco Systems reflected a similarly
dismal 4G market in Russia. Cisco estimated that 4G
connections made up only 2% of all mobile connections
in 2014, forecasting that that number would grow to 25%
by 2019. 4G data traffic accounted for 15% of all mobile
traffic in 2014, with Cisco projecting it would make up
60% of traffic by 2019.

www.eMarketer.com

According to company filings for Q1 2015, Telenor had


3.2 million mobile subscribers during that period, while
NetComs numbered 2.5 million. (Figures were not
available for Network Norway or Tele2).

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 30

Mobile Data and Device Metrics in Russia,


2014 & 2019
2014

2019

118.0

124.0

83%

88%

64

149

Mobile devices
Mobile device users (millions)
Mobile device user penetration (% of population)
Smartphones in use (millions)
Connected tablets in use (millions)

20

2%

25%

Mobile data traffic per user (MB/month)

768

10,756

Smartphone data traffic (% of total)

57%

75%

Tablet data traffic (% of total)

9%

17%

Laptop data traffic (% of total)

31%

4%

Mobile video traffic (% of total mobile data traffic)

49%

71%

4G data traffic (% of total mobile data traffic)

15%

60%

4G connections (% of total mobile connections)*


Mobile data traffic

Note: includes only devices connected to the mobile network; excludes


devices connected via Wi-Fi; *excludes low-power wide area (LPWA)
machine-to-machine (M2M) connections
Source: Cisco Systems, "Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI): Global Mobile
Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2014-2019," Feb 3, 2015

According to the IDC, Samsung had the largest share


of smartphone sales in Russia last year, at 6.04 million
units. This represented a large drop of 27.4% from the
previous year. Apple had a strong year, selling 3.25 million
smartphones, while Lenovo made incredible gains in the
country, selling 2.22 million devices, almost tripling its
sales since 2013.
Smartphones Sales in Russia, by Brand,
2013 & 2014
thousands of units and % change
2013

2014

Samsung

8,326

6,047

-27.4%

Apple

1,571

3,245

106.6%

Lenovo

% change

570

2,217

288.9%

Nokia

1,047

1,797

71.6%

Sony

1,075

1,586

47.5%

562

1,064

89.3%

LG

931

852

-8.5%

www.eMarketer.com

Other

4,733

10,666

125.4%

The high price of 4G-capable devices in Russia is probably


a large factor in dissuading consumers from purchasing
advanced handsets. According to JSon & Partners
Consulting, the average retail price of a smartphone sold
in 2014 was RUB8,300 ($215), but the average price of a
4G LTE-capable phone was RUB22,000 ($571).

Total

18,814

27,474

46.0%

185472

Mobile TeleSystems (MTS) tracked the average


smartphone price in Russia, finding that it was
RUB10,000 (US$260) in Q4 2014, a year-over-year
increase of 12%.
Average Smartphone Price in Russia,
Q4 2013 & Q4 2014
Russian rubles and % change
10,000
(12%)
8,010

HTC

Note: numbers may not add up to total due to rounding


Source: International Data Corporation (IDC), "Worldwide Mobile Phone
Tracker" as cited by Bloomberg Business; eMarketer calculations, Feb 16,
2015
189776

www.eMarketer.com

Friction between Russia and the West is also affecting


smartphone technology. Russian financial newspaper
RBC reported in May 2015 that Russias ministry of
communications has started a project to build a new
mobile operating system based on the open-source
Sailfish OS, developed by the Finnish company Jolla.
Russia hopes to remove the stranglehold that Googles
Android and Apples iOS has on the mobile OS market.
According to company filings, MTS is the largest mobile
service provider in Russia, with 74.5 million subscribers
in Q1 2015. MegaFon was next, with 66.3 million
subscribers, then VimpelComs Beeline brand with
55.7 million customers. (Tele2s Russian brand merged
with state-owned telecom Rostelecom in June 2014
to form a new company for which numbers are not
yet available.)

SPAIN
Q4 2013

Q4 2014

Source: Mobile TeleSystems (MTS), "Report on Mobile Retail in Russia, Q4


2014"; eMarketer calculations, May 1, 2015
190206

www.eMarketer.com

The number of mobile phone users in Spain will reach


39.6 million in 2015, increasing only slightly to 41.2 million
by 2019, eMarketer projects, reflecting how saturated
the mobile market in the country is. The mobile phone
user penetration rate will reach 82.2% in 2015 and remain
close to flat over the next four years, increasing to 83.0%
in 2019.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 31

Mobile internet use will see more dramatic growth


over that period, however. eMarketer estimates that
the number of mobile phone internet users will climb
from 25.9 million in 2015 to 31.3 million by 2019. Mobile
internet usage among the countrys population will
increase from 53.8% to 63.1% over the same period.
Smartphone user growth will also be significant,
registering a 13.5% jump in 2015 before decreasing to
just 3.4% in 2019. eMarketer forecasts that the number
of smartphone users in Spain will hit 25.0 million in 2015
and increase to 30.5 million by 2019.

Kantar Worldpanel ComTech reported that Android led


Spains smartphone market in terms of OS share by
a wide margin, accounting for 89.9% of devices sold
in March 2015. Apples iOS was a very distant second
with 7.0%, followed by Windows Phone with 2.8% and
BlackBerry with 0.2%.
Smartphone Sales Share in Spain, by OS,
March 2014 & March 2015
% of total
Windows Phone
3.0%
iOS
7.6%

The status of 4G in Spain is something of a mixed bag,


with slow adoption but also some of the fastest 4G
networks in the world. The Cocktail Analysis surveyed
smartphone owners in Spain in October 2014 and found
that 22% of respondents were on 4G networkswell
below the 68% still on 3G.
Smartphone Owner Share in Spain, by Connection
Type, Oct 2014
% of respondents
Don't know/did not answer
7%
2G
3%
4G
22%

3G
68%

Note: n=964 ages 18-55 who own a smartphone with data connection
Source: The Cocktail Analysis, "Televidente 2.0 2014 VIII Oleada"
190248

www.eMarketer.com

According to data from Cisco Systems, 4G connections


constituted 11% of all mobile connections in Spain in
2014, although that figure was projected to grow to 45%
by 2019. Cisco also reported that the amount of mobile
data traffic conducted over 4G networks would rise from
31% to 81% over the same time period.

Other
0.8%

Windows Phone
2.8%

iOS
7.0%

Android
88.6%

March 2014

BlackBerry
0.2%
Other
0.1%

Android
89.9%

March 2015

Source: Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, May 18, 2015


190112

www.eMarketer.com

While there are four mobile operators that own their


own networksMovistar, Vodafone, Orange and Yoigo
Spains market is also well populated with mobile virtual
network operators (MVNOs), which lease spectrum from
the big players and sell service to customers, usually
at a discount. According to Comisin Nacional de los
Mercados y la Competencia (CNMC), Movistar is the
market leader in Spain, with 31.6% of connection share
in January 2015, followed by Orange (22.9%), Vodafone
(22.5%), MVNOs in the aggregate (16.3%) and Yoigo
(6.8%). The strong market presence of MVNOs in Spain
reflects a user base on the hunt for cheaper mobile
service plans.

OpenSignals The State of LTE report found that Spain


had the fastest 4G LTE speeds out of all the markets
it measured, averaging 18 megabits per second for
downloads between November 2014 and January
2015. However, it should be noted that OpenSignals
methodology excluded some service providers deemed
to be too small to accurately represent a real-world
experience by a user.

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2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 32

Mobile Connection Share in Spain, by Service


Provider, Jan 2015
% of total

Smartphone User Penetration in Sweden, 2010-2014


% of population
73%
67%

Yoigo
6.8%
MVNO*
16.3%

Vodafone
22.5%

54%

Movistar
31.6%
36%

Orange
22.9%
14%

Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding; *mobile virtual
network operator
Source: Comisin Nacional de los Mercados y la Competencia (CNMC) as
cited in company blog, April 28, 2015
190409

www.eMarketer.com

According to company filings, mobile service provider


Movistar had 17.4 million subscribers in Q1 2015, followed
by Vodafone (14.2 million), Orange (12.8 million) and Yoigo
(3.5 million).
CNMC also found that in March 2015, about 72% of all
mobile contracts in Spain were postpaid, with prepaid
contracts making up the remainder of the 50.34 million
total mobile contracts in the country.

SWEDEN
Swedens mobile phone market is highly mature.
eMarketer estimates that 80.9% of the countrys
population, or 7.9 million people, will be mobile phone
users in 2015, increasing to 82.6% by 2019 when users
will number 8.4 million.
Mobile internet users will increase by 11.3% in 2015,
reaching 6.1 million individuals. The strong annual growth
rate will begin to peter out over the forecast period,
however, falling to 4.1% by 2019, when there will be
8.0 million mobile internet users in Sweden.
Smartphone user numbers in Sweden will also climb over
the forecast period. eMarketer estimates that between
2015 and 2019, the number of people who own such
a device will increase from 6.0 million to 7.9 million.
Smartphone penetration will also rise over that period,
from 61.5% to 78.5% among the overall population.
The media research institute Nordicom reported higher
figures for smartphone penetration in Sweden, although
it measured the statistic somewhat differently, estimating
that 73% of the countrys population had access to such a
device in their home.

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Note: ages 9-79 who have access to a smartphone at home


Source: Nordicom, "Nordicom-Sveriges Mediebarometer 2014," June 3,
2015
177974

www.eMarketer.com

4G networks have seen a fair amount of growth recently.


According to the Swedish Post and Telecom Authority
(PTS), the number of 4G LTE mobile connections in the
country jumped from 1.5 million in 2013 to 4.1 million in
2014, a 164% increase. (It should be noted that there was
possible overlap between the 3G and 4G LTE connections
recorded by PTS due to the use of both networks by
consumers on one subscription plan.)
Mobile Connections in Sweden, by Type, 2013 & 2014
millions and % change
2013

2014

11.0

11.1

3.2

3.3

3%

14.2

14.4

2%

3G*

9.8

11.0

12%

4G (LTE)**

1.5

4.1

164%

Mobile broadband as a standalone service

2.2

2.2

1%

Mobile broadband as an additional service

5.6

6.3

13%

Private
Corporate
Total

% change
1%

Of which:

Note: numbers may not add up to total due to rounding; *active


UMTS/CDMA 2000 subscriptions; **overlap may occur between 3G and 4G
(LTE) connections due to multiple network usage within subscriptions
Source: Swedish Post and Telecom Authority (PTS), "Svensk Telemarknad
2014," May 25, 2015
190483

www.eMarketer.com

Cisco Systems reported that 4G connections in Sweden


accounted for 19% of all mobile connections in 2014, and
that the figure was expected to grow to 51% by 2019.
Cisco also found that 39% of all mobile traffic traveled
over a 4G network in 2014, and projected that 85% of
mobile traffic would do so by 2019.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 33

Mobile Data and Device Metrics in Sweden,


2014 & 2019
2014

2019

8.4

9.0

87%

90%

Smartphones in use (millions)

10

Connected tablets in use (millions)

19%

51%

3,783

14,251

Mobile Phone Subscription Share in Sweden,


by Service Provider, 2014
% of total

Mobile devices
Mobile device users (millions)
Mobile device user penetration (% of population)

4G connections (% of total mobile connections)*

Hi3G Access
12.5%

Smartphone data traffic (% of total)

62%

66%

Tablet data traffic (% of total)

7%

24%

Laptop data traffic (% of total)

31%

7%

Mobile video traffic (% of total mobile data traffic)

59%

76%

4G data traffic (% of total mobile data traffic)

39%

85%

Note: includes only devices connected to the mobile network; excludes


devices connected via Wi-Fi; *excludes low-power wide area (LPWA)
machine-to-machine (M2M) connections
Source: Cisco Systems, "Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI): Global Mobile
Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2014-2019," Feb 3, 2015
185474

www.eMarketer.com

According to social media marketing agency Buzzador,


smartphone penetration in Sweden was high across all
age cohorts. In fact, it was at 98% for those ages 16 to
44, dropping to 95% for the 45-to-54-year-old group and
88% for those ages 55 to 65.
Smartphone Owner Penetration in Sweden, by Age,
Feb 2015
% of internet users in each group
16-24

98%

25-34

98%

35-44

98%

45-54

95%

55-65

88%

Total

95%

TeliaSonera
37.4%

Telenor
17.4%

Mobile data
Mobile data traffic per user (MB/month)

Other
5.2%

Tele2
27.6%

Note: includes data subscriptions and mobile voice; excludes


machine-to-machine (M2M) subscriptions; numbers may not add up to
100% due to rounding
Source: Swedish Post and Telecom Authority (PTS), "Svensk Telemarknad
2014," May 25, 2015
190484

www.eMarketer.com

According to company filings, TeliaSonera had


6.1 million mobile subscribers in Q1 2015, while Tele2
had 3.6 million and Telenor had 2.5 million. Three had
1.9 million subscribers as of 2014.

UK
Growth of mobile phone use in the UK will slow to 1.6%
this year, eMarketer estimates, reflecting the maturation
of the market. The UK will have 52.0 million mobile phone
users in 2015, a figure expected to climb only slightly to
54.9 million by 2019.
UK Mobile Phone Users and Penetration, 2014-2019
millions, % change and % of population
51.2

52.0

52.8

53.5

54.2

54.9

79.2%

79.9%

80.4%

80.8%

81.2%

81.6%

1.6%

1.6%

1.5%

1.3%

1.3%

1.2%

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Note: n=19,832
Source: Buzzador, "BuzzadorINDEX 2015," March 17, 2015
189031

www.eMarketer.com

There are four carriers with a significant presence in


Swedens mobile service provider market. According to
PTS, TeliaSonera held 37.4% of mobile connections in
2014, followed by Tele2 (27.6%), Telenor (17.4%) and Hi3G
Access (12.5%).

Mobile phone users

% change

% of population

Note: individuals who own at least one mobile phone and use the phone(s)
at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, July 2015
192649

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

www.eMarketer.com

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 34

Mobile phone internet use will see higher growth rates.


eMarketer projects that the number of mobile phone
internet users in the UK will hit 38.7 million in 2015,
increasing 8.4% over the previous year. By 2019, mobile
phone internet users will number 47.3 million, but the
annual growth rate will decline to 2.6%.

UK 4G LTE Mobile Connection Penetration, 2014-2018


% of total mobile connections
66.5%
58.6%
48.6%
36.7%

UK Mobile Phone Internet Users and Penetration,


2014-2019
2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

35.7

38.7

41.8

44.4

46.1

47.3

% change

13.7%

8.4%

7.9%

6.3%

3.8%

2.6%

% of mobile phone users

69.7% 74.4% 79.1% 83.0% 85.0% 86.2%

% of population

55.2% 59.4% 63.6% 67.1% 69.1% 70.3%

Mobile phone internet


users (millions)

Note: mobile phone users of any age who access the internet via mobile
phone (browser or app) at least once per month; use of SMS/MMS is not
considered mobile internet access
Source: eMarketer, July 2015
192653

www.eMarketer.com

In 2015, the number of smartphone users will reach


38.3 million individuals, or 58.7% of the UKs population,
eMarketer estimates. While the penetration rate of
smartphones will remain comparatively low for a
developed market, it will rise to 69.6% by 2019.
UK Smartphone Users and Penetration, 2014-2019

22.6%

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: 451 Research, "Mobile Broadband Forecast," Dec 2014 as cited in


company blog, Feb 13, 2015
185655

www.eMarketer.com

Cisco Systems reported that 4G penetration was slightly


lower in 2014, at 17% of total mobile connections, and
was only expected to reach 44% by 2019. However,
according to Cisco, 42% of mobile data traffic traveled
over 4G networks last year, with that figure estimated to
reach 88% in five years time. In findings from Mobidia
and Ovum, 4G LTE connections in the UK numbered
16.4 million at the end of 2014, giving them a 20.3%
penetration rate among the overall population.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Smartphone users (millions)

35.1

38.3

41.4

44.0

45.7

46.8

% change

13.8%

9.0%

8.0%

6.4%

3.8%

2.6%

% of mobile phone users

68.6% 73.6% 78.3% 82.2% 84.2% 85.4%

% of population

54.3% 58.7% 62.9% 66.4% 68.4% 69.6%

Note: individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the
smartphone(s) at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, July 2015
192662

www.eMarketer.com

4G coverage in the UK has increased steadily, according


to data from the Office of Communications (Ofcom)
UK. In its April 2015 Measuring mobile broadband
performance in the UK report, the government agency
found that 4G coverage areas offered by three service
providersEE, O2 and Vodafonehad all improved
substantially between June 2014 and March 2015.

Samsung remains the most popular mobile brand in the


UK, but Apple has a significant presence in the market.
According to data from comScore MobiLens, Samsung
phones accounted for 29.4% of mobile phones used in
the UK in the three-month period preceding March 2015.
Apple was next with 25.4% of the market, followed by
Nokia (16.2%), Sony (7.1%), HTC (5.7%), Motorola (3.4%),
LG (2.4%) and BlackBerry (2.2%). However, it should be
noted that Apples market presence reflects how popular
its iPhone is among those in the UK, while Samsungs
position also reflects the popularity of its feature phones
as well as its smartphones.

According to 451 Research, 22.6% of mobile connections


in the UK were of the 4G LTE variety last year. That
percentage is expected to increase to around two-thirds
of mobile connections by 2018.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 35

UK Mobile Phone User Share, by Brand, March 2015


% of total
Samsung

29.4%

Apple
16.2%

Sony

7.1%

HTC

5.7%
3.4%

Motorola

2.4%
2.2%

BlackBerry

Other

iOS

June 2012

57.2%

25.3%

Dec 2012

54.4%

32.4%

June 2013

55.2%

Dec 2013

Windows

BlackBerry

Other

4.5%

10.6%

2.3%

5.9%

6.4%

0.9%

31.1%

9.2%

3.5%

0.9%

54.9%

29.9%

11.3%

3.2%

0.6%

June 2014

60.6%

28.5%

9.6%

1.1%

0.2%

Dec 2014

50.5%

42.0%

6.6%

0.8%

0.1%

March 2015

52.9%

38.1%

8.0%

0.7%

0.3%

Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding


Source: Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, May 2015

8.2%

183843

Note: 3-month average for period ending March 2015


Source: comScore MobiLens as cited in Newsworks, "Newsbrands and
mobile phones," May 15, 2015
190139

www.eMarketer.com

In terms of OS share, Googles Android is the market


leader. eMarketer forecasts that there will be 21.5 million
Android users in the UK in 2015, accounting for 56.2%
of the market. Smartphones running iOS will number
12.3 million this year, with a market share of 32.2%. The
market shares of both Android and iOS are expected
to remain static over the forecast period, as is that of
Windows Phone, while BlackBerry will lose share.

2014
Android

2015

2016

EE

30.7%

O2

Tesco
Other

19.6

21.5

23.3

24.9

9.6%

8.4%

6.7%

% of total

55.9%

56.2%

56.4%

56.6%

10.8

12.3

13.4

14.3

% change

26.0%

14.0%

8.7%

7.0%

% of total

30.8%

32.2%

32.4%

32.6%

2.8

3.3

3.6

3.9

% change

21.3%

15.8%

10.6%

8.8%

% of total

8.0%

8.5%

8.7%

8.9%

BlackBerry

1.3

0.7

0.6

0.4

% change

-47.4%

-44.0%

-20.4%

-31.6%

% of total

3.7%

1.9%

1.4%

0.9%

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.4

% change

-46.5%

-18.3%

-1.0%

-3.3%

% of total

1.6%

1.2%

1.1%

1.0%

Other

UK Mobile Phone User Share, by Service Provider,


March 2015
% of total

2017

19.3%

Windows Phone

UK mobile phone users have a fair number of mobile


service providers to choose from. According to comScore
MobiLens, EE controlled 30.7% of the mobile phone
market in the UK during Q1 2015, followed by O2 (22.3%),
Vodafone (19.0%), Three (10.4%) and Tesco (8.0%).

22.3%
19.0%

Three

% change
iOS

www.eMarketer.com

Vodafone

UK Smartphone Users, by OS, 2014-2017


millions, % change and % of total

Note: individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the
smartphone(s) at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, July 2015
192689

Android

25.4%

Nokia

LG

Smartphone Sales Share in Great Britain, by OS,


June 2012-March 2015
% of total

www.eMarketer.com

Data from Kantar Worldpanel ComTech similarly found


that Android devices were prominent in the UK. Googles
OS was installed on 52.9% of smartphones sold in March
2015, compared with 38.1% for iOS. Windows Phone
was on 8.0% of devices, while BlackBerry was found on
just 0.7%.

10.4%
8.0%
9.6%

Note: 3-month average for period ending March 2015


Source: comScore MobiLens as cited in Newsworks, "Newsbrands and
mobile phones," May 15, 2015
190175

www.eMarketer.com

According to company filings, EE had 24.3 million mobile


subscribers as of Q1 2015, while O2 had 17.5 million for
the quarter and Vodafone had 18.4 million. Three had
10.3 million subscribers as of late 2014, the most recent
period for which data was available.
The telecom sector in the UK is in the middle of a wave
of consolidation. In January 2015, Three announced it was
in talks to purchase the UK subsidiary of O2 from the
Spanish telecom Telefonica. In addition, BT announced
its plan to purchase EE in February 2015. By expanding,
the telecoms hope to be able to offer customers a
range of servicessuch as traditional TV, landlines, fixed
broadband and wireless servicefrom one company in
order to offset declining revenues from a maturing sector
with little growth.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 36

LATIN AMERICA
Mobile phone use is gaining across Latin America,
thanks to a drop in the costs associated with owning
and using a mobile device. eMarketer projects that
the regions mobile phone user base will grow to
396.6 million in 2015 and reach 430.7 million by the
end of 2019. Mobile phone penetration among the
regions population will also climb, from 64.7% in
2015 to 67.7% in 2019.
Mobile Phone Users and Penetration in Latin America,
by Country, 2013-2019
millions and % of population
2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Mobile phone users (millions)


Brazil

121.6

126.6

130.3

133.5

136.5

139.2

141.6

Mexico

74.4

78.2

81.3

83.5

85.6

87.4

89.2

Colombia

30.8

31.7

32.4

33.0

33.7

34.3

34.9

Argentina

29.4

30.0

30.7

31.3

31.9

32.4

32.9

Peru

16.6

17.7

18.5

19.0

19.6

20.0

20.4

Chile

12.4

12.6

12.8

13.0

13.2

13.4

13.5

Other
Latin America

85.4

88.3

90.6

92.8

94.7

96.6

98.3

370.5

385.1

396.6

406.2

415.2

423.3

430.7

Mobile phone user penetration (% of population)


Chile

72.2%

72.8%

73.3%

73.9%

74.3%

74.6%

74.9%

Argentina

68.9%

69.7%

70.6%

71.4%

72.0%

72.5%

73.0%

Colombia

67.3%

68.6%

69.3%

70.0%

70.6%

71.2%

71.7%

Mexico

62.8%

65.3%

67.2%

68.3%

69.3%

70.1%

70.8%

Brazil

60.5%

62.5%

63.8%

64.9%

65.8%

66.7%

67.3%

Peru

55.7%

58.6%

60.7%

61.9%

63.0%

63.8%

64.4%

Other

58.5%

59.7%

60.6%

61.3%

61.9%

62.4%

62.8%

Latin America 61.7% 63.4% 64.7% 65.6% 66.5% 67.1% 67.7%


Note: individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and use
the phone(s) at least once per month; numbers may not add up to total
due to rounding
Source: eMarketer, April 2015; confirmed and republished, July 2015
187826

www.eMarketer.com

The number of mobile connections in Latin America has


also increased, driven by the popularity of multiple SIM
ownership, by which users employ several active SIM
cards to take advantage of price competition among
service providers.

Smartphone use will see substantially sharper growth


rates, a reflection of the trading up of feature phones for
devices with touchscreens running advanced operating
systems, in particular Googles Android and Apples iOS.
eMarketer estimates that smartphone users will number
155.9 million in 2015 and increase to 245.6 million by
2019. The penetration rate of smartphones among
mobile phone users in Latin America will break the 50%
mark in 2018 and increase to 57.0% by the end of the
forecast period.
Smartphone Users and Penetration in Latin America,
by Country, 2014-2019
millions and % of mobile phone users
2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Smartphone users (millions)


Brazil

39.7

49.1

57.8

65.8

72.5

77.6

Mexico

31.3

38.5

45.2

51.7

57.9

62.4

Colombia

14.4

16.7

19.0

20.9

22.6

24.3

Argentina

11.0

13.3

15.5

16.9

18.3

19.8

Chile

6.3

7.1

7.9

8.7

9.3

9.8

Peru

5.1

6.2

7.3

8.3

9.3

10.1

Other
Latin America

19.8

25.0

29.7

34.0

38.1

41.5

127.6

155.9

182.4

206.3

228.0

245.6

Smartphone user penetration (% of mobile phone users)


Chile

49.7%

55.5%

60.9%

65.7%

69.7%

72.8%

Colombia

45.3%

51.4%

57.4%

62.1%

66.0%

69.7%

Mexico

40.1%

47.4%

54.1%

60.4%

66.2%

70.0%

Argentina

36.7%

43.5%

49.3%

53.0%

56.7%

60.2%

Brazil

31.3%

37.6%

43.3%

48.2%

52.0%

54.8%

Peru

28.7%

33.5%

38.2%

42.5%

46.5%

49.7%

Other

22.4%

27.6%

32.0%

35.9%

39.5%

42.3%

Latin America

33.1%

39.3%

44.9%

49.7%

53.9%

57.0%

Note: individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the
smartphone(s) at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, July 2015
193868

www.eMarketer.com

Smartphones are providing many consumers in the region


with their first access to the internet, but a perhaps more
radical change will occur once faster 3G and 4G networks
become more common in the region, displacing slower
2G networks. The GSMA, a trade group composed
of mobile operators, estimates that 80% of mobile
connections will run over 3G or 4G networks by 2020.
However, 4G has a long way to go before achieving any
susbstantial penetrationthe GSMA estimates that 4G
connections accounted for just slightly more than 1.0% of
total connections in the region as of September 2014.
These faster networks will result in increased data
consumption, fueling the demand for new online mobile
services and content.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 37

ARGENTINA
Due to its smaller population, Argentina has a smaller
mobile market in absolute terms than either Brazil or
Mexico. However, the mobile phone penetration rate in
Argentina exceeds that found in both of those countries, a
clear sign of a more advanced mobile market. eMarketer
estimates that there will be 30.7 million mobile phone
users in 2015, giving the devices a penetration rate of
70.6% among the overall population. Mobile phone users
will number 32.9 million by 2019, when the penetration
rate will be 73%, reflecting a slowdown in growth found
in maturing markets.

Mobile Phone Sales Share in Argentina, by Type,


2010-2014
% of total
2010
72%

Smartphones, however, remain a bright spot for the


mobile market. The devices will see a higher growth
rate over eMarketers forecast period, with the number
of smartphone users in Argentina increasing from
13.3 million in 2015 to 19.8 million in 2019. The penetration
rate of smartphones among mobile phone users will also
increase from 43.5% to 60.2% over that time period.
Feature phones constituted a very small share of total
mobile phone sales in Argentina in 2014, according to
Carrier y Asociados. The firm reported that 84% of
mobile phones sold that year were smartphones. Only
7% of the phones sold were feature phones, while 9%
were so-called socialphones, which run basic versions
of social networking and messaging apps but lack the
computer-like functions of a smartphone.

14%

2011
41%

33%

26%

2012
23%

35%

41%

2013
16%
2014
7%

28%

56%

9%

84%

Feature phone*

There are other signs, too, of a slowdown in mobile


device uptake in Argentina. In March 2015, Carrier y
Asociados reported that the number of mobile phones
shipped in the country had fallen from 13 million units in
2013 to 11.4 million units in 2014, a 12% decline.

14%

Socialphone**

Smartphone

Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding; *devices enabled
for voice calling and SMS only; **devices that can run basic versions of
social networks and instant messaging apps but do not have the
computer-like functions of a smartphone
Source: Carrier y Asociados, "Mercado celular argentino 2015" as cited in
company newsletter, March 27, 2015
188973

www.eMarketer.com

According to Carrier y Asociados, the number of


socialphones and feature phones sold in 2014 dropped
68% from the previous year, while smartphone sales
increased by 31% over the same period. The firm also
reported that 9.6 million smartphones were sold in
Argentina in 2014.
Despite signs that smartphone adoption in Argentina
is continuing apace, the country remains largely stuck
on 3G connections. In January 2015 polling conducted
by Internet Media Services (IMS) and comScore, 84%
of smartphone owners in the country used 3G internet
connections, while only 9% used a 4G network to
get online. This was the lowest percentage among
respondents in the countries polled.
Internet Connection Types Used by Smartphone
Owners in Select Countries in Latin America, Jan 2015
% of respondents
Wi-Fi

3G

4G

Other

Don't
know

Argentina

84%

84%

9%

2%

Mexico

82%

57%

31%

1%

1%

Brazil

81%

65%

19%

1%

<1%

Chile

74%

71%

27%

1%

<1%

Peru

74%

60%

36%

1%

1%

Colombia

74%

56%

41%

1%

1%

Latin America

80%

65%

23%

1%

1%

1%

Note: on their smartphone


Source: Internet Media Services (IMS) and comScore Inc., "IMS Mobile in
Latam," March 25, 2015
188424

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

www.eMarketer.com

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 38

However, mobile service operators have started building


out the infrastructure to support 4G connections in
Argentina, following airwave auctions by the government
that allocated spectrum for that purpose. The adoption of
4G will take some time though. Cisco Systems estimates
that 4G connections will make up only 10% of all mobile
connections by 2019, when 36% of all mobile data traffic
will be conducted over 4G.
According to company filings, mobile service provider
Claro had 21.9 million subscribers in Argentina, Paraguay
and Uruguay combined in Q1 2015. Movistar, meanwhile,
had 19.8 million subscribers in Argentina during that
quarter, while Personal had 19.3 million subscribers.

BRAZIL
Brazil has experienced significant growth in its middle
class in recent years, a phenomenon that has translated
to an increase in mobile phone adoption. eMarketer
estimates that there will be 130.3 million mobile phone
users in Brazil in 2015, giving it the largest population
of mobile phone users in Latin America. However, the
mobile phone penetration rate in the country will remain
relatively low, reaching 63.8% in 2015, therefore trailing
Chile (73.3%), Argentina (70.6%), Colombia (69.3%) and
Mexico (67.2%). eMarketer projects that 67.3% of the
population in Brazil, or 141.6 million people, will be mobile
phone users by 2019.
Smartphone use in Brazil will see stronger growth
through the forecast period, with eMarketer projecting
that users of the devices will grow from 49.1 million in
2015 to 77.6 million in 2019. During that time, smartphone
penetration among mobile phone users will increase from
37.6% to 54.8%
Cost savings is clearly an important factor for the majority
of mobile phone users in Brazil. In a survey of mobile
phone users conducted by Acision in September 2014,
72% of respondents said they relied on a prepaid service
plan with a rechargeable card, while 17% had a postpaid
plan. Another 11% had some mix of the twoin other
words a fixed plan that could be supplemented with
additional payments.
Acisions survey also found that almost half of mobile
phone users in Brazil owned more than one SIM card,
a practice that allows them to take advantage of the
cheapest deals offered by competing wireless carriers in
the market.

Number of SIM Cards Owned by Mobile Phone Users


in Brazil, by Device Type, Sep 2014
% of total
2%

Smartphone
53%

40% 5%

Feature phone
45%

45% 5% 5%
2%

Total
52%
1

41% 5%

More than 3

Note: n=1,510 ages 18+


Source: Acision, "Monitor Acision de VAS Mvel, 12th edition," Sep 1, 2014
182354

www.eMarketer.com

The emergence of cheaper devices and declining prices


for service plans will drive smartphone adoption in
Brazil. As in many other markets, an increased demand
for data-intensive mobile device users, such as video
viewing, will contribute to increased appetites for
mobile broadband.
Despite residents clamoring for faster network speeds,
4G remains in the early stages of adoption in Brazil.
According to data from Telebrasil (the Associao
Brasileira de Telecomunicaes), there were 7.8 million
4G mobile broadband connections in the country as
of January 2015, while 3G connections numbered
165.2 million.
Mobile Broadband Connections in Brazil, 3G vs. 4G,
Jan 2015
millions
4G
7.8

3G
165.2

Note: total mobile broadband connections=173 million


Source: Associao Brasileira de Telecomunicaes (TELEBRASIL) as cited in
press release; eMarketer calculations, March 13, 2015
188816

www.eMarketer.com

According to 451 Research, 4G LTE mobile connections in


Brazil will see strong growth over the next few years. The
firm projects that 4G LTE connections number 9.9 million
in 2015, with that number set to more than triple to
35.8 million by 2018.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 39

4G LTE Mobile Connections in Brazil, 2014-2018


millions
35.8

Similarly, IMS/comScore data found that 82% of


smartphone owners polled in January 2015 had a device
running Android. However, their poll also showed that
Apples iOS had a more substantial footprint in Brazil,
used by 16% of respondents.

26.6

17.7

9.9
4.3
2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: 451 Research, "Mobile Broadband Forecast," Sep 2014 as cited in


company blog, Nov 13, 2014
182236

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Googles Android operating system is the clear market


leader in Brazil, making up 89.6% of smartphones in Q1
2015, according to data from Kantar Worldpanel. Windows
Phone was second, accounting for 6.3% of smartphones,
while iOS ran on 3.3% of devices. Windows Phone
appears to be benefiting from the lower prices of devices
on which it is usually installed, allowing it to edge out
more expensive Apple devices. In fact, Brazil is one of
the strongest markets for phones running Windows:
The IDC reported that the number of devices running
Microsofts OS sold in Brazil in Q3 2014 had outnumbered
the number of iOS devices purchased during the
same period.
Smartphone Sales Share in Brazil, by OS,
March 2014 & March 2015
% of total
iOS
3.0%

BlackBerry
1.5%

BlackBerry
0.2%

iOS
3.3%

Other
2.5%

Other
0.7%
Windows
6.3%

Windows
5.5%
Android
87.6%

Android
89.6%

March 2014

March 2015

The domination of Android in Brazil is related to the


popularity of devices by manufacturers that have paired
with Google to offer the OS on their smartphones. In
September 2014, Acision polled adult mobile phone users
in Brazil and found that 42% of smartphone owners
had a Samsung. Fifteen percent of respondents owned
a Motorola or LG devices, while Nokia owners made
up 12% of those polled. Apple accounted for 7% of
smartphones, while Sony made up 5%.
Mobile Phone Users in Brazil, by Device Type and
Brand, Sep 2014
% of total
Smartphone
42%
Feature phone
24%

15%
24%

15%

8%

12% 7% 5% 4%
31% 1%

12%

Total
39%
Samsung

LG

Motorola

17%
Nokia

14%
Apple

15% 5% 4% 6%
Sony

Other

Note: n=1,510 ages 18+


Source: Acision, "Monitor Acision de VAS Mvel, 12th edition," Sep 1, 2014
182353

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When it came to feature phones, Samsung had a


significantly smaller percentage. For both Samsung and
LG devices, 24% of the poll respondents who had a
feature phone had those device types, trailing the 31%
who had Nokia.
According to company filings, Vivo had 81.9 million
subscribers in Brazil in Q1 2015. The Brazil subsidiary of
Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM) had 75.7 million subscribers
that quarter, while Claro had 71.9 million. Oi had
50.4 subscribers.

Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding


Source: Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, May 27, 2015
190519

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GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 40

MEXICO
Mexico trails markets like Argentina, Brazil and the US
in terms of mobile connection penetration, but telecom
reforms enacted in the past two years have been aimed
at eliminating that disparity by increasing mobile phone
adoption growth. Amrica Mvil, the countrys dominant
service provider, has effectively been made to open its
infrastructure to other providers, stimulating competition
and resulting in reduced prices for users. However, while
the cost of data plans and devices in Mexico is relatively
low compared with other countries, their costs still put
them out of reach for a significant chunk of people in a
country where about half of the population lives below
the poverty line. Those costs, along with a lack of access
to banking, have served as impediments to the wider
adoption of smartphones in Mexico.
eMarketer estimates that there will be 81.3 million mobile
phone users in the country in 2015, reaching 67.2% of the
overall population. But the country represents a maturing
market with slowing growth; the total number of mobile
phone users has seen a single-digit annual growth
rate since 2013. The number of mobile phone users is
projected to total 89.2 million by 2019.
Forecasting numbers for smartphones in Mexico show
a much higher growth rate, remaining in the double
digits through 2018. eMarketer projects that 38.5 million
individuals, or almost one-third (31.8%) of the countrys
population, will be smartphone users in 2015.

62.4
57.9
51.7
45.2
38.5

22.9

31.3
37.2%

26.2%
19.3%
2013

31.8%

37.0%

17.3%
22.9%

2014

Smartphone users

2015

2016

41.9%

14.5%

2017

% change

Smartphone User Share in Mexico, by Brand, Q4 2014


% of total
Samsung

46.4%

11.8%

2018

49.6%

7.9%
2019

26.1%

LG

15.0%

Apple

14.9%

Motorola

10.0%

Nokia

10.0%

Alcatel

6.8%

Sony

6.3%
4.3%

BlackBerry

1.6%

Huawei

1.6%

ZTE

Other

3.5%

Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding


Source: The Competitive Intelligence Unit as cited in press release, Feb 23,
2015
186218

Smartphone Users in Mexico, 2013-2019


millions, % change and % of population

45.7%

Samsung has been able to capitalize in Mexico by


appealing to consumers with devices that range from
affordable to top-tier flagship level. According to data from
The Competitive Intelligence Unit (CIU), Samsung was
the top smartphone manufacturer by user share in Q4
2014. LG, another manufacturer with budget-conscious
product offerings, was second with 15.0%, slightly ahead
of Apples 14.9% share. BlackBerry, once a powerhouse
in Mexico, was in eighth place with a 4.3% market share.
Chinese smartphone manufacturers Huawei and ZTE
also ranked near the bottom of the list, an indicator that
these low-cost manufacturers have gained a toehold in
the market.

www.eMarketer.com

As in most emerging markets, Googles Android


mobile operating system is the overwhelming market
leader. Androids dominance is a result of the fact that
it is effectively free for OEMs to preinstall on devices
and is often found on low-cost devices. According to
comScore and Internet Media Services (IMS), 74% of
smartphone owners in Mexico surveyed in January 2015
had devices running Android. Apples iOS was used by
26% of respondents, and BlackBerrys OS was used
by 6% of those polled. (BlackBerry, once a dominant
player in Mexico thanks to a strong secondhand market
for devices, has seen its fortunes decline sharply in
the country.)

% of population

Note: individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the
smartphone(s) at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, April 2015
187803

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GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 41

Data from Yahoo backed up Androids strong presence in


the market. According to October 2014 findings, 67.6%
of the smartphone audience on Yahoo properties were
Android users. Again, iOS took the second spot, with
22.9% of user share. Windows Phone OS had captured
6.5% of user share, followed by BlackBerry (1.7%).

Mobile Data and Device Metrics in Mexico,


2014 & 2019
2014

2019

Mobile device users (millions)

81.5

95.7

Mobile device user penetration (% of population)

66%

73%

30

73

Mobile devices

Smartphones in use (millions)

Smartphone User Share in Mexico, by OS, Oct 2014


% of total smartphone audience on Yahoo properties
Windows Phone
6.5%

BlackBerry
1.7%

iOS
22.9%

1%

22%

Mobile data traffic per user (MB/month)

353

4,194

Smartphone data traffic (% of total)

68%

66%

Tablet data traffic (% of total)

9%

26%

Laptop data traffic (% of total)

19%

5%

Mobile video traffic (% of total mobile data traffic)

50%

72%

8%

55%

4G connections (% of total mobile connections)*


Mobile data

4G data traffic (% of total mobile data traffic)

Android
67.6%

Note: includes only devices connected to the mobile network; excludes


devices connected via Wi-Fi; *excludes low-power wide area (LPWA)
machine-to-machine (M2M) connections
Source: Cisco Systems, "Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI): Global Mobile
Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2014-2019," Feb 3, 2015

Note: represents activity on Yahoo properties, broader industry metrics


may vary; numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding
Source: Yahoo, "Mobile Web Mexico Audience Q4 2014," March 5, 2015
186918

Connected tablets in use (millions)

www.eMarketer.com

A separate study conducted by comScore in December


2014 found that 80.8% of smartphone traffic in Mexico
was on an Android device. More surprising is that iOS
was responsible for only 10.6% of smartphone traffic
in the country, as Apple devices are known for driving
mobile traffic. However, Apple remained ahead of the
4.6% of traffic that came via Windows mobile OS.
Mexico, like most markets in Latin America, trails more
developed markets in the prevalence of 4G connections.
According to Cisco Systems, only 1% of mobile
connections in Mexico last year were 4G. However, Cisco
predicts that the country is on the cusp of strong growth
in 4G connections, estimating that they will make up
22% of all mobile connections by 2019. Similarly, Cisco
estimates that the percent of total mobile data traffic that
travels over 4G networks will increase from 8% in 2014 to
55% in 2019.

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Data from Mobidia and Ovum tracking 4G LTE mobile


connections and penetration in 15 different countries
placed Mexico at the bottom of the list, with 600,000
such connections in December 2014. In comparison,
Brazil had 5.3 million 4G LTE connections, while Colombia
had 1.7 million. The research also found that the mobile
penetration rate of 4G LTE connections among the overall
population in Mexico was very low, at 0.6%.
Mobile phone users in Mexico opt for prepaid plans
in much greater numbers than those who enroll in
postpaid plans. That makes sense given the high cost
of data plansprepaid plans are generally cheaper and
offer users greater flexibility, which are both factors
that would appeal strongly to Mexicos growing middle
class. September 2014 data from the Instituto Federal
de Telecomunicaciones (IFT) Mexico found that 85.0%
of mobile connections in the country were prepaid, with
postpaid making up the remaining 15.0%.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 42

Mobile Connections in Mexico, by Service Provider


and Plan Type, Sep 2014
% of total

Connections (millions)

Connections

Share of connections
Prepaid

Mobile Connections in Mexico, by Service Provider,


Sep 2014
millions and % of total

Postpaid

% of total

Telcel

70.5

69.0%

Telefnica

21.3

20.8%

Unefn

5.0

4.9%
3.6%

Telcel

60.7

69.9%

86.1%

9.8

63.8%

13.9%

Iusacell*

3.6

Telefnica

19.7

22.7%

92.7%

1.5

10.1%

7.3%

Nextel*

1.8

1.8%

Unefn

4.6

5.3%

92.4%

0.4

2.5%

7.6%

Total

102.2

100.0%

Iusacell*

1.8

2.0%

48.2%

1.9

12.3%

51.8%

Nextel*

0.1

0.1%

3.4%

1.7

11.3%

96.6%

86.8

100.0%

85.0%

15.3

100.0%

15.0%

Total

Note: numbers may not add up to total due to rounding; *have since been
acquired by AT&T
Source: Instituto Federal de Telecomunicaciones (IFT) - Mexico, "Informe
Estadistico 3 Trimestre 2014"; eMarketer calculations, March 25, 2015
188396

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Mobile phone users in Mexico also sidestep costs


associated with data plans by taking advantage of both
paid and free Wi-Fi networks when available. According to
the Interactive Advertising Bureau Mxico (IAB Mxico)
and Millward Brown, 83% of mobile internet users polled
in December 2014 used a paid Wi-Fi connection to access
the internet via a mobile device, a category that also
included tablets. Almost three in 10 respondents used a
public Wi-Fi connection.

Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding; *have since been
acquired by AT&T
Source: Instituto Federal de Telecomunicaciones (IFT) - Mexico, "Informe
Estadistico 3 Trimestre 2014," March 25, 2015
188395

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According to company filings, Telcel had 73.3 million


subscribers in Q1 2015, while Movistar had 22.5 million
subscribers.

Connection Types Used to Access the Internet*


Among Mobile Internet Users in Mexico, Dec 2014
% of respondents
Paid Wi-Fi connection

83%
32%
28%

18%

Postpaid mobile data plan

Public Wi-Fi connection

Prepaid mobile data plan

Note: ages 13-70; *via mobile device


Source: Interactive Advertising Bureau Mxico (IAB Mxico) and Millward
Brown, "Estudio de Consumo de Medios y Dispositivos Entre Internautas
Mexicanos," March 10, 2015
187288

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Mexico has something close to a duopoly in terms of


mobile service providers. The Amrica Mvil-owned
Telcel and the Mexican subsidiary of Spanish telecom
Telefnica, Movistar, control 79.8% of the market
between them, according to September 2014 data from
the IFT. Unefn provided 4.9% of mobile connections,
while lusacell and Nextelboth of which were acquired
by AT&T in H1 2015rounded out the list of the top five
mobile service providers in Mexico.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 43

THE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

Smartphone Users and Penetration in the Middle East


& Africa, by Country, 2014-2019

The Middle East and Africa is a region with significant


variation in the economic fortunes of its constituent
countries, based largely on their access to oil wealth.
Those countries that benefit from the natural resource
generally have more advanced mobile markets than
those lacking it.
eMarketer estimates that there will be 606.2 million
mobile phone users in the region in 2015, a figure that is
expected to rise to 789.2 million by 2019. Mobile phone
user penetration will reach 42.8% of the population this
year, but by 2019 more than half of those in the region will
have a mobile phone.

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Smartphone users (millions)


Egypt

15.5

18.2

21.0

23.6

25.8

27.9

Saudi Arabia

12.8

14.7

15.9

17.0

18.1

19.1

Nigeria

11.0

13.2

15.5

18.0

20.5

23.3

South Africa

9.7

11.9

14.1

16.2

17.8

19.2

United Arab Emirates

3.1

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.3

Other

33.6

44.9

53.3

62.2

71.3

80.0

Middle East & Africa

85.7

106.4

123.7

140.9

157.7

173.8

Smartphone user penetration (% of mobile phone users)


United Arab Emirates

70.1%

75.6%

77.4%

79.2%

80.0%

80.8%

Saudi Arabia

66.2%

72.7%

75.5%

77.5%

79.6%

82.1%

South Africa

28.4%

34.0%

39.9%

45.0%

49.1%

52.2%

Egypt

25.9%

29.8%

33.5%

36.9%

39.6%

42.0%

Nigeria

16.6%

18.7%

20.8%

23.1%

25.3%

27.6%

8.9%

10.8%

11.7%

12.6%

13.3%

14.0%

Other

Middle East & Africa 15.2% 17.6% 18.9% 20.1% 21.2% 22.0%

Mobile Phone Users and Penetration in the Middle


East & Africa, by Country, 2013-2019
millions and % of population

Note: individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the
smartphone(s) at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, July 2015

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

193886

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Mobile phone users (millions)


Nigeria

62.0

66.2

70.5

74.6

78.0

81.4

84.5

Egypt

58.1

59.7

61.2

62.7

64.0

65.3

66.6

South Africa

33.0

34.0

34.9

35.5

35.9

36.3

36.7

Saudi Arabia

18.4

19.3

20.2

21.1

21.9

22.7

23.3

4.2

4.5

4.7

4.8

5.0

5.1

5.3

United Arab Emirates


Other

345.0 379.1 414.6 454.5 494.9 534.4 572.9

Middle East & Africa

520.9 562.9 606.2 653.2 699.7 745.1 789.2

Mobile phone user penetration (% of population)


United Arab Emirates

77.5% 79.1% 80.6% 81.6% 82.1% 82.5% 82.8%

Saudi Arabia

68.4% 70.8% 72.9% 74.9% 76.7% 78.3% 79.2%

South Africa

67.9% 70.3% 72.3% 73.3% 74.2% 75.0% 75.6%

Egypt

68.2% 68.7% 69.2% 69.6% 69.9% 70.1% 70.3%

Nigeria

35.9% 37.4% 38.8% 40.1% 40.9% 41.7% 42.2%

Other

34.0% 36.5% 39.0% 41.8% 44.5% 47.0% 49.3%

Middle East & Africa 38.5% 40.7% 42.8% 45.2% 47.4% 49.4% 51.2%
Note: individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and use
the phone(s) at least once per month; numbers may not add up to total
due to rounding
Source: eMarketer, April 2015; confirmed and republished, July 2015
187830

www.eMarketer.com

Smartphone users are expected to total 106.4 million in


the region, with Egypt accounting for the largest number
of them at 18.2 million. eMarketer predicts that there will
be 173.8 million smartphone users in the Middle East and
Africa by 2019, when 22.0% of mobile phone users in the
region will use the devices regularly.

EGYPT
By virtue of its population, Egypt is the largest mobile
phone market in the Middle East, and any future
economic growth will help to increase the market for
mobile phones. eMarketer estimates that Egypt will have
61.2 million mobile phone users in 2015, reaching 69.2%
of its population. Mobile phone user growth will be slow
through the forecast period, hitting 2.5% in 2015 and
2.0% in 2019. By that year 66.6 million people, or 70.3%
of Egypts population, will be mobile phone users.
Despite the slow growth in the number of mobile phone
users, smartphone users are accumulating at a healthy
rate. eMarketer estimates there will be 18.2 million
smartphone users in Egypt in 2015, an 18.0% increase
over the previous year. The number of smartphone users
will reach 27.9 million in 2019. The penetration rate of
the devices among mobile phone users will climb from
29.8% to 42.0% during that time.
According to the IDC, Android devices have a strong hold
on the smartphone landscape in Egypt, with 84.4% of
devices running Googles OS in Q3 2014. In comparison,
Apples iOS ran on only 11.7% of phones, followed by
Windows Phone (2.9%) and BlackBerry (0.5%). Android
has gained market share over the past few years largely
at the expense of BlackBerry, though also advancing over
iOS to a lesser degree.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 44

Additional data from Gfk also supports Samsungs control


the smartphone market in Egypt. The research firm
reported that smartphones manufactured by the Korean
company accounted for 72.9% of smartphone sales
during the period lasting from January 2014 to October
2014. Nokia-branded devices were second, with a 7.8%
market share, followed closely by Sony (7.6%), Alcatel
(3.0%) and HTC (2.7%).
Egypts Ministry of Communications and Information
Technology (MCIT) reported that Vodafone Egypt was the
top mobile service provider in Egypt as of the end of 2014
with 41.6% of mobile subscriptions. Mobinil controlled
35.1% of the market and Etisalat Misr held 23.3%.

SAUDI ARABIA
Saudi Arabia has a highly developed mobile market.
eMarketer estimates that there will be 20.2 million mobile
phone users in the country in 2015, giving the devices
a 72.9% penetration rate among the population. Mobile
phone user growth is already in the single digits and is
expected to reach 4.6% in 2015 and 2.7% come 2019. By
then, 23.3 million people, or 79.2% of the population, will
be mobile phone users.
Smartphone usage is also high in Saudi Arabia. eMarketer
estimates the devices will reach 72.7% of mobile phone
users in 2015. That works out to a smartphone user
population of 14.7 million. Smartphone user growth
rates will remain higher than those of mobile phones
throughout the forecast period. eMarketer projects that
there will be 19.1 million smartphone users by 2019.
According to the governments Communications and
Information Technology Commission (CITC), mobile
broadband has near-total penetration in Saudi Arabia,
reaching 94.5% at the end of 2014 with 29 million active
mobile subscriptions. The CITC credited the growth in
mobile broadband subscriptions to a combination of the
ongoing adoption of smartphones, increased competition
among service providers and a wider selection of
data packages.

Until 2005, the Saudi Telecommunications Company


(STC) was the only mobile telecom authorized to provide
services in Saudi Arabia. Currently, it faces competition
from two other companiesMobily and Zain Saudi
Arabiaalong with two mobile virtual network operators
(MVNOs). According to data from Telegeography, the
telecom was the mobile service provider market leader as
of September 2014, with a 44.4% market share. Mobily
had a 38% share, while Zain Saudi Arabia controlled
17.3% of mobile subscriptions.

SOUTH AFRICA
eMarketer expects that there will be 34.9 million mobile
phone users in South Africa in 2015, with that figure set
to increase to 36.7 million by 2019. The mobile phone
penetration rate will reach 72.3% of the countrys
population this year and climb slightly to 75.6% by 2019,
reflecting a market nearing its saturation point.
By eMarketer estimates, 34.0% of mobile phone users,
or 11.9 million people, will utilize smartphones in 2015. The
penetration rate of smartphones will reach 52.2% in 2019,
giving the country a smartphone user base of 19.2 million.
The use of 4G in South Africa is still in its infancy. Cisco
Systems reported that 4G connections made up 2.2% of
all mobile connections in 2014, accounting for 15.7% of
all mobile data traffic. Cisco also projected that by 2019,
4G connections would grow to account for 23.2% of all
mobile connections and 56.1% of mobile data traffic.
In a survey of internet users in South Africa, the research
firm Effective Measure found that Samsung was the
smartphone brand with the largest market share in the
country, at 39.4% in June 2014. Effective Measure found
that both BlackBerry and Nokia, once dominant players
in the country, had seen their market position slip, with
BlackBerry commanding 31.6% of the market and Nokia
29.7%. Apple was in fourth with a 14.1% market share.
South Africa has four large mobile service providers
Vodacom, MTN, Cell C and Telkom. The South African
news site BusinessTech reported in April 2015 that
Vodacom had 31.4 million subscribers in 2014. MTN
had 28 million subscribers as of March 2015, while Cell
C reported having 20.4 million at the end of Q1 2015.
Telcom had 1.8 million in 2014.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 45

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES


Mobile phones are entrenched in the United Arab
Emirates (UAE), reaching 80.6% of the population in 2015,
eMarketer estimates. There will be 4.7 million mobile
phone users in the country this year, with that figure
growing to 5.3 million by 2019 when the devices will have
an 82.8% penetration rate among the overall population.
Growth in mobile phone users will slow over the forecast
period, falling from 4.6% in 2015 to 2.5% in 2019.
eMarketer estimates that smartphone growth in the UAE
will be stronger, reaching 12.7% in 2015 and declining to
3.5% in 2019. In 2015 the number of smartphone users
in the country will reach 3.5 million75.6% of mobile
phone usersand climb to 4.3 million by 2019.

NORTH AMERICA
The two markets that make up North America
Canada and the USare similar in a number of
ways. Both have high mobile phone penetration, and
smartphones have been adopted relatively quickly.
eMarketer estimates that there will be 286.7 million
mobile phone users in the region this year, reaching
80.2% of the population. By 2019, those figures will rise
to 304.4 million and 82.4%, respectively.
Mobile Phone Users and Penetration in North
America, by Country, 2013-2019
millions and % of population
2013

2014

The UAEs Telecommunications Regulatory Authority


(TRA) found that smartphones accounted for 61% of
mobile phones registered on the countrys networks in
Q4 2014. The Apple iPhone 5s was the most widely used
smartphone on UAE networks, comprising 4% of all
handsets. The iPhone 5 was second with a 2.4% market
share, followed by the Samsung S III (2.1%), the iPhone 6
(1.7%), the iPhone 4S (1.6%), the Samsung S4 LTE (1.5%),
the Samsung Note (1.3%) and the Samsung S5 (1.0%).

Mobile phone users (millions)

The TRA also reported that Nokia controlled the largest


share of all mobile phones registered in the UAE in Q4
2014, accounting for 40%. Samsung was second (24.3%),
followed by Apple (11.4%), BlackBerry (5%), Sony (1.2%),
HTC (1.2%), Lenovo (1.2%) and Huawei (0.9%).

187827

The mobile service landscape in the UAE is effectively


a duopolyEtisalat and du are the countrys two lone
carriers and the government holds a majority stake
in both companies. BuddeComm reported that both
companies have already implemented 4G networks
that provide service to 88% of the population, and that
Etisalat expected to cover 99% of the population with 4G
networks by the end of 2015.

US

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019
273.8

247.2

252.8

258.0

262.2

265.9

270.4

26.8

27.7

28.7

29.2

29.8

30.1

30.6

North America 274.0

280.5

286.7

291.4

295.7

300.5

304.4

Canada

Mobile phone user penetration (% of population)


US

78.1%

79.3%

80.3%

80.9%

81.4%

82.1%

82.5%

Canada

76.3%

77.9%

79.6%

80.7%

81.2%

81.7%

81.9%

North America 77.9% 79.2% 80.2% 80.9% 81.4% 82.1% 82.4%


Note: individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and use
the phone(s) at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, April 2015; confirmed and republished, July 2015
www.eMarketer.com

eMarketer projects that the number of mobile phone


internet users on the continent will reach 215.2 million in
2015 and increase to 265.3 million by 2019.
That correlates to an increase in smartphone users in
North America. eMarketer forecasts that smartphone
users will number 210.8 million in 2015, an increase of
11.6% over the previous year. By 2019, there will be
262.2 million smartphone users in the region.
Smartphone Users and Penetration in North America,
by Country, 2014-2019
millions and % of mobile phone users
2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019
236.8

Smartphone users (millions)


US
Canada
North America

171.0

190.5

207.2

219.8

229.2

18.0

20.3

22.1

23.7

24.7

25.4

189.0

210.8

229.3

253.9

262.2

243.5

Smartphone user penetration (% of mobile phone users)


86.5%

US

67.6%

73.8%

79.0%

82.7%

84.8%

Canada

64.9%

70.9%

75.8%

79.5%

81.9%

83.1%

North America

67.4%

73.6%

78.7%

82.4%

84.5%

86.1%

Note: individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the
smartphone(s) at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, July 2015
193877

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

www.eMarketer.com

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 46

Gfk reported that smartphone sales in North America


totaled 42.3 million in Q1 2015, a 17% year-over-year
increase.
Smartphone users in the region have also been quick
to migrate to faster 4G networks, driving demand for a
new host of mobile internet services and content. GSMA
forecasts that 4G connections will account for almost
80% of all mobile connections by 2020 in North America.
The fast buildout of 4G infrastructure has also helped to
drive the sales of newer 4G-enabled devices that replaced
older devices in the relatively mature markets of Canada
and the US.

Smartphone penetration is expected to reach 70.9%


of mobile phone users in 2015, putting the number of
smartphone users in the country at 20.3 million. That
figure is expected to increase to 25.4 million by 2019,
when the penetration rate will reach 83.1%
Smartphone Users and Penetration in North America,
by Country, 2014-2019
millions and % of mobile phone users
2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019
236.8

Smartphone users (millions)


US
Canada
North America

171.0

190.5

207.2

219.8

229.2

18.0

20.3

22.1

23.7

24.7

25.4

189.0

210.8

229.3

243.5

253.9

262.2

Smartphone user penetration (% of mobile phone users)

CANADA
The mobile service provider market in Canada has long
been dominated by three playersRogers Wireless, Telus
Mobility and Bell Mobility. Although these three telecoms
operate a few discount subsidiaries, limited competition
in Canada has saddled the country with a reputation for
having expensive mobile service, with data packages
commanding comparatively high premiums. The opening
of new blocks of spectrum to regional upstarts has raised
the prospect of increased competition, but it remains
unclear whether these new service providers will be able
to disrupt the status quo enough to result in lower prices
for consumers.
The majority of the population in Canada has access
to mobile phones, making it a market thats close to
saturation. eMarketer estimates that 28.7 million people
in Canada79.6% of its populationwill use a mobile
phone at least once per month in 2015. By 2019, there
will be 30.6 million mobile phone users in Canada, with
the penetration rate climbing only slightly to 81.9%.

86.5%

US

67.6%

73.8%

79.0%

82.7%

84.8%

Canada

64.9%

70.9%

75.8%

79.5%

81.9%

83.1%

North America

67.4%

73.6%

78.7%

82.4%

84.5%

86.1%

Note: individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the
smartphone(s) at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, July 2015
193877

www.eMarketer.com

When it comes to operating systems, Googles Android


OS has gained market share among smartphone owners
in Canada, according to data from Catalyst Canada and
GroupM Next, increasing to 51% in Q1 2015 compared
with 45% the previous year. Apples iOS, meanwhile, saw
its market share fall slightly from 34% to 33%, while the
share held by BlackBerry (formerly known as Research in
Motion, or RIM) also declined, falling by five percentage
points to 10%. Canada-based BlackBerry once enjoyed
strong standing among smartphone users in the country,
but no more. Windows Phone saw a slight gain, but still
held only a tiny sliver of the market.

Mobile Phone Users and Penetration in North


America, by Country, 2013-2019
millions and % of population
2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019
273.8

Mobile phone users (millions)


US

247.2

252.8

258.0

262.2

265.9

270.4

26.8

27.7

28.7

29.2

29.8

30.1

30.6

North America 274.0

280.5

286.7

291.4

295.7

300.5

304.4

Canada

Mobile phone user penetration (% of population)


US

78.1%

79.3%

80.3%

80.9%

81.4%

82.1%

82.5%

Canada

76.3%

77.9%

79.6%

80.7%

81.2%

81.7%

81.9%

North America 77.9% 79.2% 80.2% 80.9% 81.4% 82.1% 82.4%


Note: individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and use
the phone(s) at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, April 2015; confirmed and republished, July 2015
187827

www.eMarketer.com

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 47

Smartphone Owner Share in Canada, by OS,


2014 & 2015
% of total

Smartphone vs. Feature Phone OEM Share in Canada,


Dec 2014
% of total

Android

Smartphone

45%
51%
iOS
34%
33%
RIM
15%
10%
Windows Phone
4%

Apple

38.3%

Samsung

32.4%

BlackBerry

8.9%

Google

5.3%

HTC

3.7%

LG

2.7%

Motorola

2.3%

Nokia

2.3%

Other

4.1%

Feature phone

5%
Other
2%

Samsung

36.8%

LG

25.0%

Nokia

13.9%

Motorola

1%
2014

6.9%

Kyocera

2015

2.6%

Other

14.8%

Note: ages 18+


Source: Catalyst Canada and GroupM Next, "The Evolving Canadian Mobile
Landscape 2015," March 26, 2015

Note: ages 13+


Source: comScore MobiLens as cited in "2015 Canada Digital Future in
Focus," March 27, 2015

188293

187949

www.eMarketer.com

comScore MobiLens data from December 2014 reported


similar figures for OS market share on smartphones in
Canada, finding that Android ran on 50.5% of devices and
iOS on 38.3%, with other operating systems making up
the balance.
Although Apple trails Google in terms of OS share, it
is No. 1 in smartphone manufacturer share in Canada.
Additional data from comScore MobiLens found that
Apple smartphones held a 38.3% share in Canada in
December 2014, with Samsung controlling a 32.4%
share. BlackBerry was in a distant third place with 8.9%.
In the arena of feature phones, Samsung was king,
accounting for 36.8% of the market. LG feature phones
accounted for one-quarter of such devices in Canada,
while Nokia held a 13.9% share and Motorola made up
6.9% of the market.

www.eMarketer.com

Despite Canadas well-developed wireless infrastructure,


there are signs that the adoption of 4G connections
among smartphone users has been somewhat slow,
likely due to the high costs associated with data
packages in the country. According to 451 Research,
there will be 6.4 million 4G LTE mobile connections in
the country in 2015. That figure is expected to grow
substantially over the next four years, almost doubling to
12.3 million connections by 2017 and reaching 16.5 million
connections by 2019.
4G LTE Mobile Connections in Canada, 2015-2019
millions
16.5
14.7
12.3
9.5
6.4

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: 451 Research, "Mobile Broadband Forecast," March 2015 as cited


in company blog, April 1, 2015
187852

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www.eMarketer.com

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 48

Mobidia and Ovum had higher figures 4G LTE connections


for Canada, estimating 5.6 million connections as of
December 2014. By their count, 19.8% of the population
had 4G LTE connections.
There are signs that mobile apps have become the
preferred method for smartphone users wanting to
engage with content on their devices. The research firm
Flurry Analytics analyzed the activity of some 92,000
devices on its network in March 2015, finding that those
running Android or iOS spent 86% of their time with
apps, and only 14% on a mobile browser.
App vs. Browser Share of Time Spent Using Mobile
Internet in Canada, March 2015
% of total

Smartphone Apps Used Regularly by Smartphone App


Users in Canada, by Category/Brand, Dec 2014
% of respondents
Weather

73%

Facebook

66%

Maps

56%

Games

54%

YouTube

46%

Banks

45%

Loyalty program

33%

Snap by Groupon

28%

Checkout51

27%

Twitter

26%

Instagram

23%

Pinterest

20%

Google+

18%

Health/fitness

18%

Skype

17%

Note: n=4,018 smartphone owners ages 18+ who regularly use apps
Source: BrandSpark, "2015 Canadian Shopper Study," Jan 13, 2015

Browser
14%

188550

www.eMarketer.com

According to company filings, Rogers Wireless was


the largest mobile service provider in Canada as of Q1
2015, with 9.5 million subscribers. Telus was next with
8.3 million, followed by Bell Canada (8.1 million).

App
86%

Note: iOS and Android devices


Source: Flurry based on comScore Inc. as cited in company blog, May 13,
2015

US

190301

eMarketer estimates that mobile phone user penetration


in the US is nearing saturation. However, while mobile
phones seem to be in everyones hands these days, only
80.3% of the US population will use such devices on a
regular basis this year. By 2019, this figure will increase
slightly to 82.5%, while the annual growth rate for mobile
phone uptake will decline from a projected 2.0% to 1.3%
during this period.

www.eMarketer.com

A December 2014 survey conducted by BrandSpark


found that weather apps were the most popular type of
mobile app among smartphone users, used by almost
three-quarters of respondents. Two-thirds said they used
the Facebook app, while more than half of those polled
used map-related apps and games.

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 49

US Mobile Phone Users and Penetration, 2013-2019


millions, % change and % of population
247.2

78.1%

252.8

79.3%

258.0

80.3%

262.2

80.9%

265.9

81.4%

US Smartphone Users and Penetration, 2013-2019


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

273.8

270.4

82.5%

82.1%

Smartphone users
(millions)

146.5 171.0 190.5 207.2 219.8 229.2 236.8

% change

20.9% 16.7% 11.4% 8.7% 6.1% 4.2% 3.3%

% of mobile phone users 59.3% 67.6% 73.8% 79.0% 82.7% 84.8% 86.5%
% of population

46.3% 53.6% 59.3% 63.9% 67.3% 69.6% 71.4%

Note: individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the
smartphone(s) at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, Feb 2015; confirmed and republished, July 2015
184713

2.1%

2.3%

2.0%

2013

2014

2015

Mobile phone users

1.6%

1.4%

1.7%

1.3%

2016

2017

2018

2019

% change

% of population

Note: individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and use
the phone(s) at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, Feb 2015; confirmed and republished, July 2015
184696

www.eMarketer.com

www.eMarketer.com

4G has already managed to work its way into the mobile


landscape in the US. Projections from 451 Research put
the number of 4G LTE connections in the country at
208.6 million for this year, and it expects that will increase
to 294.6 million by 2019.
US 4G LTE Mobile Connections, 2015-2019
millions

The number of mobile phone users in the US will increase


over the next few years, from 258.0 million in 2015 to
273.8 million in 2019.

266.8

283.7

294.6

243.6
208.6

Mobile internet use will see a higher growth rate, with


the number of users increasing from 193.8 million in 2015
to 239.6 million by the end of the forecast period. During
that time, the percentage of the US population who will
use the mobile internet will rise from 60.3% to 72.2%.
US Mobile Phone Internet Users and Penetration,
2013-2019
2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2015
2019

Mobile phone
internet users
(millions)

149.9 174.3 193.8 210.5 223.0 232.2 239.6

% change

20.3% 16.2% 11.2%

% of mobile phone
users

60.7% 68.9% 75.1% 80.3% 83.9% 85.9% 87.5%

% of population

47.4% 54.7% 60.3% 65.0% 68.3% 70.5% 72.2%

8.6%

6.0%

4.1%

3.2%

Note: mobile phone users of any age who access the internet via mobile
phone (browser or app) at least once per month; use of SMS/MMS is not
considered mobile internet access
Source: eMarketer, Feb 2015; confirmed and republished, July 2015
184705

www.eMarketer.com

Mobile internet use is closely correlated with smartphone


usage, and eMarketer predicts that smartphone users
in the US will number 190.5 million in 2015, reaching
59.3% of the overall population. By 2019, there will
be 236.8 million smartphone users, or 71.4% of the
US population.

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: 451 Research, "Mobile Broadband Forecast," March 2015 as cited


in company blog, May 15, 2015
190223

www.eMarketer.com

December 2014 data from Mobidia and Ovum had similar


estimates for 4G LTE connections, at 157.8 million and a
41.9% penetration rate among the overall population.
Cisco Systems was a bit more bullish, reporting that
4G LTE connections made up 41% of total mobile
connections in 2014 and that 72% of all data traffic was
conducted over 4G networks.
Apple has become the top smartphone manufacturer
in the US, easily drawing the largest number of users.
Data from comScore MobiLens found that 42.6% of US
smartphone users had Apple devices as of March 2015.
Samsung was the next most popular brand with 28.3% of
users. LG devices drew a smaller slice of users, at 8.4%,
followed by Motorola (5.0%) and HTC (3.8%).

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 50

Leading US Smartphone Brands, by Smartphone User


Share, Sep 2012-March 2015
% of total
Apple

Samsung

LG

Motorola

HTC

Sep 2012

34.3%

18.7%

6.6%

9.8%

12.0%

Dec 2012

36.3%

21.0%

7.1%

9.1%

10.2%

March 2013

39.0%

31.7%

6.8%

8.5%

9.0%

June 2013

39.9%

23.7%

6.6%

7.2%

8.5%

Sep 2013

40.6%

24.9%

6.6%

6.8%

7.1%

Dec 2013

41.8%

26.1%

6.6%

6.7%

5.7%

March 2014

41.4%

27.0%

6.7%

6.4%

5.4%

June 2014

42.1%

28.6%

6.4%

5.9%

4.8%

Sep 2014

41.7%

29.0%

6.9%

5.4%

4.4%

Dec 2014

41.6%

29.7%

8.0%

5.2%

3.7%

March 2015

42.6%

28.3%

8.4%

5.0%

3.8%

Note: ages 13+; 3-month average for periods ending each given month
Source: comScore MobiLens as cited in press release, Feb 2013-May 2015
156711

www.eMarketer.com

Similarly, Nielsen data from Q4 2014 found that Apple


held a significant lead over its Korea-based Samsung,
controlling 43.6% of the market vs. 31.0%, respectively.
US Smartphone Owner Share, by Brand, Q4 2014
% of total
HTC
3.9%

Nokia
2.2%

BlackBerry
1.2%
Other
4.1%

Motorola
5.8%
LG
7.6%

Apple
43.6%

Android

iOS

Windows
Phone

BlackBerry

Symbian

March 2012

51.0%

30.7%

3.9%

12.3%

1.4%

June 2012

51.6%

32.4%

3.8%

10.7%

0.9%

Sep 2012

52.5%

34.3%

3.6%

8.4%

0.6%

Dec 2012

53.4%

36.3%

2.9%

6.4%

0.6%

March 2013

52.0%

39.0%

3.0%

5.2%

0.5%

June 2013

52.0%

39.9%

3.1%

4.4%

0.3%

Sep 2013

51.8%

40.6%

3.3%

3.8%

0.3%

Dec 2013

51.5%

41.8%

3.1%

3.4%

0.2%

March 2014

52.2%

41.4%

3.3%

2.7%

0.2%

June 2014

51.9%

42.1%

3.4%

2.4%

0.1%

Sep 2014

52.1%

41.7%

3.6%

2.3%

0.1%

Dec 2014

53.1%

41.6%

3.4%

1.8%

0.1%

March 2015

52.4%

42.6%

3.3%

1.6%

0.1%

Note: ages 13+; 3-month average for periods ending each given month;
numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding
Source: comScore MobiLens as cited in press release, May 2012-May 2015
160576

www.eMarketer.com

Apple has seen strong success with its new iPhone 6


and iPhone 6 Plus models, which debuted in the US
in fall 2014. According to data from Kantar Worldpanel
ComTech, the smartphone sales share by OS was almost
even between Android and iOS in December 2014, a
reflection of high consumer demand for the new iPhone
at its launch. The sales share of iOS devices fell in March
2015, compared with figures from three months earlier.
US Smartphone Sales Share, by OS,
June 2012-March 2015
% of total

Samsung
31.0%

Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding


Source: Nielsen as cited in company blog, March 5, 2015
187524

US Smartphone User Share, by OS,


March 2012-March 2015
% of total

www.eMarketer.com

Apples solid control of the smartphone market translates


to its operating system commanding a large footprint in
the US. According to comScore MobiLens, Apples iOS
was installed on 42.6% of smartphone devices in Q1
2015. Android controlled a larger piece of the market at
52.4%, reflecting the fact that a larger number of OEMs
run the open-sourceand freeAndroid on their devices.

Android

iOS

Windows

BlackBerry

Other

June 2012

52.7%

39.2%

2.9%

4.0%

1.3%

Dec 2012

46.2%

49.7%

2.4%

0.9%

0.8%

June 2013

51.5%

42.5%

4.0%

1.1%

0.9%

Dec 2013

50.6%

43.9%

4.3%

0.4%

0.8%

June 2014

62.0%

31.5%

3.8%

2.0%

0.7%

Dec 2014

47.6%

47.7%

3.8%

0.3%

0.6%

March 2015

58.1%

36.5%

4.3%

0.4%

0.6%

Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding


Source: Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, May 2015
183374

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

www.eMarketer.com

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 51

eMarketers projections show that iOS has been making


small but steady gains in the US over the past few years.
In 2015, 43.3% of smartphone users will be on iOS, up
from 40.0% in 2013, eMarketer estimates. However,
Android has seen its own increase in user share, with
both operating systems experiencing gains at the
expense of Windows Phone and BlackBerrys OS.

3.3%

Worldwide Internet and Mobile Users: Q1 2015


Complete Forecast

1.1%

451 Research

3.1%

2.8%

Aalto University

42.3%

43.3%

1.6%
3.0%

US Mobile Video Advertising 2015: Video Viewing


Goes Mobile, but Advertisers Arent Going All In (Yet)

RELATED LINKS

US Smartphone User Share, by OS, 2013-2015


% of total
3.2%

RELATED EMARKETER REPORTS

1.7%

1.1%

Acision

40.0%

Analysys Mason
Australian Interactive Media Industry Association
(AIMIA)
Baidu

51.7%

51.3%

50.5%

Bitkom
BrandSpark

2014

2013
Android

iOS

Windows Phone

2015
BlackBerry

Other

Note: individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the
smartphone(s) at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, Feb 2015; confirmed and republished, July 2015
184737

www.eMarketer.com

According to company filings, Verizon is the largest mobile


service provider in the US as of Q1 2015 with 108.8 million
subscribers. AT&T followed with 86.2 million subscribers,
then Sprint (57.1 million), T-Mobile (56.8 million), mobile
virtual network operator TracFone (25.7 million) and US
Cellular (4.8 million). Updated figures were not available
for MetroPCS or Cricket.

BuddeComm
Buzzador
Canalys
Carrier y Asociados
Catalyst Canada
China Academy of Information and Communication
Technology (CAICT)
China Ministry of Industry and Information
Technology (MIIT)
Cisco Systems
Comisin Nacional de los Mercados y la Competencia
(CNMC)
Complete the Picture
comScore
Counterpoint Technology Market Research
Cybermedia Research
Danish Business Authority
Danske Medier (IAB Denmark)
Deloitte
Effective Measure
Egyptian Ministry of Communications and
Information Technology (MCIT)
Ericsson
European Information Technology Observatory (EITO)

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 52

Finnish Communications Regulatory Authority


(FICORA)

Swedish Post and Telecom Authority (PTS)

Flurry

Telecom Mobile TeleSystems (MTS)

Gallup Korea

Telegeography

Gfk

The Cocktail Analysis

GlobalWebIndex

The Competitive Intelligence Unit (CIU)

GroupM

TNS Gallup Norway

GSMA

United Arab Emirates Telecommunications Regulatory


Authority (TRA)

Hong Kong Office of the Communications Authority


(OFCA)

Telebrasil (Associao Brasileira de Telecomunicaes)

Indonesia Communications and Information Ministry

Vietnam Ministry of Information and Communication


(MIC)

InMobi

Yahoo

Instituto Federal de Telecomunicaciones (IFT) - Mexico

YouGov

Interactive Advertising Bureau Mxico (IAB Mxico)


International Data Corporation (IDC)
Internet Media Services (IMS)
Ipsos MORI
JSon & Partners
JustSystems
Kantar Worldpanel
Korea Internet & Security Agency (KISA)
Lifemedia Research Bank
Millward Brown
Mobidia

EDITORIAL AND
PRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS
Cliff Annicelli
Joanne DiCamillo
Dana Hill
Stephanie Meyer
Kris Oser
Ezra Palmer
Heather Price
John Rambow
Allie Smith

Managing Editor, Reports


Senior Production Artist
Director of Production
Senior Production Artist
Deputy Editorial Director
Editorial Director
Senior Copy Editor
Senior Editor
Director of Charts

NetMarketShare
Nielsen
Norwegian Communications Authority (Nkom)
NTTCom Research
Office of Communications (Ofcom) UK
OpenSignal
Osservatorio Mobile Economy del Politecnico
di Milano
Ovum
Rakuten
Roy Morgan Research
Saudi Arabian Communications and Information
Technology Commission (CITC)
Sinomonitor
Strategy Analytics
Statistics Norway
Stiftelsen Elektronikkbransjen

GLOBAL MOBILE LANDSCAPE 2015: A COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY GUIDE TO MOBILE PHONE AND SMARTPHONE USAGE

2015 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 53

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