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Answers
Q1: Ans. B
Sol: The phenomenon of fat tails is most likely the result of the volatility and/or the mean of the
distribution changing over time.
Q2: Ans. b
Sol. The standard error of sample mean sx =
So, n =
=5
= 36.
Q3: Ans. D
Sol. All the first three options correspond to the sources of basis risk.
Q4: Ans. A
Sol: Using CAPM model, the cost of capital = Rf+ m-Rf) = 3+1.2(6) = 10.2%
Discounting the cash flows at 10.2% will give the present value of $189,865
Q5: Ans. A
Sol: VaR(95%) = VaR(99%) x (Z95%/ Z99%) = 6500 x 1.65/2.33 = $4603
Q6: Ans: A
Sol: the probability of downgrade of a AA bond = sum of probabilities of it becoming A and BBB and BB
and B and CCC and D =7.78+0.58+0.06+0.11+0.02+0.01 = 8.56%
Q7: Ans. B
Sol: The minimum variance hedge ratio h =
Va
Vf
= 0.7 X
s
f
,
= 35
Q8: Ans. B
Sol.
6-month forward exchange rate should be = 0.79 e(0.08 0.06)*0.5 = 0.798. As 0.81 > 0.798, borrow
US$ and sell the forward contract in Swiss Franc. Borrow $ 1000,000 at 8% per annum for 6 months,
convert to 1,000,000/0.79 = 1,265,000 Swiss Franc and invest the $ 1,265,000 Swiss Franc at 6% which
= 0.85x24.5/17 = 1.225
= 1.1275;
D = e- T = 0.887
The risk neutral probability of an up move is Pu =
Pd = 0.36
40x1.1275= $45.1
Pay-off Cu = 0
0.64
$40
0.36
40x0.887 = $35.48
Pay-off = 42-35.48
Cd=$6.52
Expected Put option value in one year = CuPu + CdPd = 0 + 6.52x0.36 = $2.347
Present value of the put option = 2.347 x e-0.04 = 2.255
Q15: Ans. C
Sol. The number of options needed to hedge = 10,000/0.55 = 18,182
So short 18,182 call options are needed to hedge the long position is the stock.
Q16: Ans. c
Sol. To get a margin call, the money deposited in the margin account should come down to $200. So the
loss should be $50 on the contract of 100 gallons, i.e., $ 0.5 per gallon. So the price is $ 93
Q17: Ans. b
Sol. Conditional probabilities for constant stock price can be obtained; P(Constant/Excellent results) =
P(C/E) = 1-0.75-0.05 = 20%, P(C/M)= 40%, P(C/B) = 20%
Let the probability that the results were mediocre given the stock price was constant be
The
Ba e s theo e ,
0.
. .
. . + . . + . .
Q18: Ans. b
ol. Opti al u
e of o ta ts N* =
V
V
Here V and V a e sa e fo
oth po tfolios. o N*
Wrong. The assumption is that investors can borrow/lend unlimited amounts at riskfree rate
Correct.
Wrong. The assumption is that unlimited short-selling is allowed.
Correct.
Q22: Ans. a
Sol: As it is given that correlation is zero between fixed income and equity,
VaR(Portfolio)2 = VaR(equity)2 + VaR(Fixed)2
1,670,0002 = 1,230,0002+ VaR(Fixed)2
Va Fi ed = ,
-1,230,0002) = 1,129,601.7
Q23: Ans: d
Sol: alpha=CAPM expected return of portfolio-Actual return
Although we know the actual return of the portfolio here, we need the CAPM expected return of
portfolio which in-turn needs beta and risk-free rate. Alpha can be negative or positive depending on
the beta.
Q24: Ans: d
Payoff at the end of the agreement = 150,000,000 x (0.06 0.0620) x (6/12) = -150000.
Payoff at the start of the agreement = -150000/(1+0.0620*0.5) = - $145489.82
Q26: Ans. b
Sol:
r = 0.015
(0.2X0.3)
= 0.25
Q27: Ans: a.
Sol. Z=1.96 for 95% confidence level
The confidence interval is (-z, +z) = (8-1.96X3.25, 8+1.96X3.25) = (1.63, 14.37)
Q28: Ans: a
Sol: Joe did not maintain the confidentiality of his client thus violating the GARP code.
Q29: Ans. b
Sol:
Using put-call parity,
S0+P = C+Ke-rT
P = -50 + 4 + 55 e-0.04x0.25 = 8.45
Q30: Ans. b
Sol: High le e age as the easo LTCM s losses e e ag ified. Due to the size of the fu d s positio ,
it was difficult for them to liquidate the positions and they had to sell at a huge discount following the
Russian default which made the investors flight to quality.
But it s i o e t that LTCM e ui ed i esto s to i est fo sho t pe iod. A tuall the fu d eeded
investors to invest for 3 years which reduced the funding risk.
Q31: Ans: c
=P
+P
+P
=e-
^x
!
Q35:Ans: c
Sol: Trenor ratio = ( Rp-Rf)/B = ( 0.12-0.06)/0.8 = 0.075
Q36: Ans. a
Sol: Gamma is the rate of change in option price with respect to change in delta.
Q37. Ans. d
Sol:
a. Wrong. There should be a linear relationship between the dependent and independent variables
b. Wrong. Multicollinearity, which is the high correlation between the independent variables
should not be there.
c. Wrong. Expected value of the error term, conditional on the independent variable .should be
zero
Q38: Ans. d
Sol. The forward rate between 6th and 12th month, Rforward=
6.5%
R T R T
T T
= (5.5x1-4.5x0.5)/0.5 =
Q40: Ans. c
Sol.
a. Wrong. For a symmetric unimodal distribution, all the mean, median and mode should be equal
b. Wrong. For a positively skewed distribution, the mode is less than the median, which is less than
the mean
c. Correct. For a negatively skewed distribution, the mean is less than median, which is less than
the mode
d. Wrong. Skewness affects mean more than median and mode and the mean is dragged towards
the skew
Q41: Ans. d
.
Sol. To calculate the 6-month spot rate r1, 101.65 = (100+ ) e-r1/2
So r1 = 2 ln (
) = 0.0303 = 3.03%
x e-0.0303) + (100 +
So r2 = 0.0322 = 3.22%
Q42: Ans. b
Sol. Change in the bond price = Duration effect + Convexity effect
)x e-r2
x Convexity x Y
Face Value
Market price
Weights
5 million
4 million
4.912/8.3745 =
0.586
0.414
Total
9 million
5 x 0.98245 = 4.912
million
4 x 0.865625 =
3.462 million
$ 8.3745 million
Weighted
duration
0.586 x 8.27 =
4.85
0.414 x 6.4 =
2.65
7.5
Q45: Ans. a
Sol: We should find d(1). Initially solving for d(0.5). Coupon for bond A is $2.5 semi-annually
(100+2.5) d(0.5) = 102.345 i.e. d(0.5) = 0.9985
Now use the bond B. Coupon is $4 semi-annual
4 x d(0.5) + 104 d(1) = 102.655
4 x 0.9985 + 104 d(1) = 102.655
So d(1) = 0.949
Q46: Ans. c
Sol.
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
Q47: Ans. a
odel is gi e
2n =+ U2n-1 + 2n-1
Q51: Ans. b
Sol: When the forward contract is underpriced, the arbitrageur sells the stock, invest the proceeds to get
risk free return and enter into forwards contracts.
Q52: Ans. c
Sol:
This question is applicable to Mortgage Backed Securities as well as callable bonds. We see that the
callable bond behaves like a straight bond when market yields are high, or when the bond price is low.
So, option C is correct and the others must be wrong.
Q53: Ans. c
Sol: Delta without dividend = N(d1) = 0.6
Delta with 1% dividend yield = 0.6 e -0.01x2 = 0.588
Q54: Ans. b
Sol: Input the following into TI-BA II plus
+
2 x x Y
= (91.236-90.374)/(2x90.8x0.0005)
= 9.494
Q55: Ans: a.
Sol: a is correct. With the given data, the value of a European call option is USD 6.56 and the value of a
European put option is USD 11.20. We know that American options are never less than corresponding
European option in valuation. Also, the American call option price is exactly the same as the European
call option price under the usual Black-Scholes world ith o di ide d. Thus o l a is the o e t
option.
Q56: The correct answer is b
IR= (Average Rtn on the Portfolio Ave Rtn on the benchmark)/Tracking Error Volatility,
IR = 13.2 12.3/6.5 = 0.138
Q57: Ans. d
Sol: In the first year, the probability for an A rated firm to default is 1% and there is 90% chance that it
retains the rating.
In year 2, There is a 90% chance for the firm to remain A and the corresponding default rate is 1%
There is a 7.5% chance for the firm to be downgraded to B and default rate is 5%
There is a 1.5% chance for the firm to be downgraded to C and default rate is 20%
Probability of default in year 2 = 0.9x1+0.075x5+0.015x20 = 1.575%
Probability of default over two year period = 1% + 1.575% = 2.575%
Q58:
Ans. c
Sol: CAPM estimated expected return = Rf+ m-Rf) = 13%
Alpha = 15.5%-13% = 2.5%
Q59: Ans. b
Sol. As the sample size is less than 30, t-test must be done.
t-stat =
/n
Q64: Ans. a
Sol. The cheapest to deliver bond will have the cheapest cost of delivering.
The cost of delivering each of these bonds is given by the equation:
Cost = Quoted price (Conversion factor x The most recent Settlement price)
Bond 1: 126.14 - 1.36x92.5 = $0.34
Bond 2: 119.33 1.22x92.5 = $6.48
Bond 3: 98.44 1.06x92.5 = $0.39
Bond 4: 134.50 1.43x92.5 = $2.225
Q65: Ans: c
Sol: For equal weighted portfolio, return = arithmetic average = (12+15)/2 = 13.5%
Standard deviation if equal weighted and correlation - = |1- 2| = 0.5 x 6 = 3%
C o e t.
Q74):Ans. b
Sol. 94-02 = 94.0625. So Vf=94,062.5; P=20,000,000
The number of futures contracts required to hedge against an uncertainty in interest rate changes is
given by:
PDP
F DF
N =V
Q75: Ans. a
,
x
.
.
s of o d p i es o i te
Here the institution receives a fixed cash flow of 4 million (100x0.08x0.5) semi-annually but the cash
outflow is floating dependent on the LIBOR. The floating rate of the first outflow i.e. at T=0.25 years
from now was the 6-month LIBOR rate at the last payment date i.e 9.2%.
The next outflow which occurs at time 0.75 years from now is dependent on the current LIBOR which
can be calculated using the 3-month and 9-month LIBOR rates. i.e
x . .
.
Similarly the next cash outflow occurs at time = 1.25 from now and the floating rate is determined
similarly. i.e.
.
Time
.
.
0.25
0.75
1.25
x .
Floating cash
outflow
4.6
4.995
5.52
Discount factor
Using LIBOR
0.97775
0.93123
0.8825
-0.6
-0.995
-1.52
Present value
of net cashflow
-0.587
-0.926
-1.341
-2.854
allo ed hi
to gi e po e of atto e to
oke age fi
s to help
Q80: Ans. d
Sol. The maximum payoff in both bull and bear spreads is the difference between the strike prices
i.e. $45-$38 = $7. Cost of options in both cases is $5 - $3 = $ 2.
Therefore maximum profit possible = 7-2 = $5 in both cases.
Q81: Ans. a
Sol. whichever p+S0 and c+Ke-rT comes greater, short that and long the other.
Q82: Ans. b
Sol. From the given data, a regression model can be built with S&P as an independent variable.
The slope of regression b1=
, &
&
&
,&
= 0.71
ln
S
K
; = .
+(r+
T
)T
; = . ; T=
= -0.566; d2=d1- T = -0.566- . .
= -0.682
Q84: Ans. a
Sol: The portfolio dollar duration of a basis point (DV01) = (portfolio modified duration X market value of
portfolio)/10,000.
The portfolio modified duration is obtained by taking the weighted average of the modified duration of
the bonds in the portfolio. Mathematically, it is as follows: w1D1 + w2D2 + w3D3 ++ kDk
where
wi = market value of bond i/market value of the portfolio
Di = modified duration of bond I,
K = number of bonds of the portfolio.
Based on the above, the market values are as follows:
bond A = 101.43 x 3,000,000/100 = 3,042,900,
bond B = 84.89 x 5,000,000/100 = 4,244,500,
bond C = 121.87 x 8,000,000/100 = 9,749,600.
Total market value of the portfolio = 3,042,900+4,244,500+9,749,600=17,037,000
Portfolio modified duration is calculated as follows: (3,042,900/17,037,000)2.36
+(4,244,500/17,037,000)4.13 + (9,749,600/17,037,000)6.27 = (0.1786)2.36+(0.2491)4.13+(0.5723)6.27 =
0.4215+1.0289+3.5881=5.0385
Therefore, the portfolio dollar duration of a basis point (DV01) is obtained as follows: (5.0385 x
17,037,000)/10,000 = 8,584
Q85: Ans: b
The required probability = [P (first card is non face card) AND P(second card is a face card) AND P(third
card is a face card)] OR [P (first card is a face card) AND P(second card is a face card) AND P (third card is
a face card)]
= .
+ .9 *
0.02) = 0.029
Q89: Ans. b
Sol. The regime switching model captures the conditional normality and allows for conditional means
and volatility accounting for fatter tails.
Q90: Ans. b
Sol.
a. Wrong. In a loan default the principal is lost but in interest rate swap, the principal is just
notional so only the difference in interest payments is lost.
b. Correct. Currency swap generally involves exchange of principal amounts in two different
currencies at the end of the life of swap. So it has a greater value at the time of a default.
c. Wrong.
d. Wrong.
Q91: Ans. a
Sol. The long-run average variance is 0 in EWMA.
Q92: Ans. d
Sol: The Macaulay duration of a zero coupon bond = the time to maturity = 15 years
Modified duration = Macaulay duration/(1+Y) = 15/1.0714 = 14
Q93: Ans. d
Sol. Deep-in-the-money means delta = 1
o ths
,T is
0.04(1+1.01+1.012) = $0.1212
F ,T = e T +
,T = e .
* + .
=$ .
Q95: Answer: a.
Sol: a: is correct. With the given data the value of European call option is USD 30.25 and value of
European put option is USD 9.48. We know that American options are never less than corresponding
European option in valuation. Also, the American call option price is exactly the same as the European
call option price under the usual Black- holes o ld ith o di ide d. Thus o l a is the o e t
option.
Q96: Ans. c
Sol. The no arbitrage forward price of the 90 day contract should be:
FT = 1.08 x
Q97:
.
.
Ans. a
9 /
9 /
= 1.077 AD/CAD
x .
= $50
Q98: Ans: c
Sol: Converting months to years, R(0,0.5) = 4%, R(0,1) = 5%, R(0,1.5) = 5.5%, R(0,2) = 6%
The required forward rate R(1.5,2) =2x[(1+(R(0,2)/2)]4/[1+(R(0,1.5)/2)3)-1] = 7.5%
Q99: Ans. d
Sol: The number of exceptions = (1 confidence interval) * (number of days) = (1 0.95) * (250) = 12.5.
So 13 days
Q100: Answer: d, 15.99
Correlation coefficient between the return on portfolio and return on market index = 0.65