Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Resources Policy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/resourpol
art ic l e i nf o
a b s t r a c t
Article history:
Received 8 September 2014
Received in revised form
8 March 2015
Accepted 9 March 2015
Available online 31 March 2015
Natural non-renewable resources, such as minerals, are becoming increasingly depleted against a
backdrop of intense industrialisation. Through the exergy analysis and thermoeconomic tools it is
possible to assign a gure to the degree of depletion. This is because the exergy replacement cost
represents the effort needed by humankind to return minerals to their original conditions from the
commercially dead state, Thanatia. The authors undertake an evaluation of the ten most signicantly
produced minerals in Colombia, since 1990. Via the 2011 mineral balance, this paper shows that the
highest exergetic losses are in the extraction for export and not national consumption rates. The loss in
mineral wealth, quantied in exergy terms for 2011 is 119.2 Mtoe (4.99 109 GJ) and has, since 1990,
accumulated to 1,543.4 Mtoe (6.46 1010 GJ). In converting these losses into economic terms, it becomes
clear that the nation must re-think its mineral export strategy, if it is develop sustainably.
& 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords:
Exergy
Thermoeconomics
Mineral depletion
Colombia
Thanatia
Introduction
This paper's principal idea is to provide a quantitative assessment with which to ascertain the gain or loss of annual GDP,
should those mineral resources extracted be evaluated with exergy
and not through global market prices. The results divulged are the
rst of their kind for an emerging country and represent an
improvement and national advance in mineral management and
accountability. It should be noted that exergy is one way to
physically assess mineral resources but it is not the only one. In
addition, while exergy is able to measure physical facts, related to
the composition, concentration or cohesion of minerals, it is
incapable of quantifying social or certain environmental aspects
that are also crucial in the mining industry.
The physical costs of mineral resources, as well as their scarcity,
are natural outcomes of the Second Law of Thermodynamics. This
paper, through the lens of exergy, a unit used in thermoeconomics,
looks at mineral wealth and extraction in Colombia in the late
20th and early 21st centuries. Specically it looks at those
elements considered, since 2000, to be drivers for the Colombian
economy into 2020. It then goes on to describe how exergy
replacement costs can be used to evaluate the nation's mineral
Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: lugacapa@gmail.com (L. Gabriel Carmona),
whitingke@yahoo.co.uk (K. Whiting), aliciavd@unizar.es (A. Valero).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2015.03.005
0301-4207/& 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
wealth and its depletion. Using the exergy balance, the authors
determine the role Colombia plays in terms of mineral dependence or provision.
Methodology
This paper contextualises both a descriptive and deductive
methodological process by obtaining the secondary data previously
provided by other authors and institutions (such as those associated
with the provision of a reference environment and the non-fuel and
fuel mineral national statistics of Colombia). This data is then used to
support the analysis published here. It is also hoped to lead to a
thorough understanding of the problem of mineral scarcity and
depletion. Such data are benecial in helping the authors and
subsequently the government of the Republic of Colombia arrive at
potential solutions, by making use of the most important variables. At
the same time, such data are used to develop the theoretical knowledge that aids the practical application of the tools readily used in
Exergoecology (Valero, 1998) and more specically Physical Geonomics (Valero and Valero, 2010).
The evaluation predominantly involved the consultation of secondary data produced by research institutions in the form of special
reports or academic articles or that published by the Colombian
Government, in the form of ofcial statistics for the extractive sector
and the national geological department. The data of particular interest
24
Colombia in context
Colombia holds signicant quantities of minerals due to the
geological conuence of the Andean system and that of Guyana
which generate good conditions for mineral extraction. The country is
the number one producer of emeralds in the world, the number one
producer of nickel and coal in South America and the tenth largest
producer of gold in the world (Peace Brigade International, 2011).
The national territory of Colombia is 114 million hectares of
which some 8.7 million, were as of 2011, licensed for non-fuel
mineral deposit exploration. A further 37 million has been
assigned to crude oil (Gonzlez, 2011). In total, 40% of the land
has either been licensed or solicited for mining concessions
(Sanchez-Garzoli, 2012). This boom is a relatively recent phenomenon and has led to an extensive mineral and hydrocarbon large
scale mining sector with the biggest names in the mining industry
having set-up there due to export opportunities.
The $3.2 billion (USD) paid in royalties in 2010 jumped to $4.3
billion (USD) in 2011 (Rudas, 2012a). That said, money from royalties
does not reach the people it should with many of the municipalities
with natural resources also being among the poorest (Rudas, 2012b).
This may mean that even should coal export double and mining
production triple as the government aims by 2019, a weak tax regime
and a lack of transparency could cost Colombians more in terms of
social, environmental and human right violations than mining generates. Hence the signicance of the candidacy status within the
international standard, the Extractive Industries Transparency Index
(EITI) to address some of those issues relating to transparency and
accountability or at least provide a platform for the initiation of
dialogue. This paper uses exergy to see the physical cost of extraction.
Exergy could in the future be used as an indicator to bring about
progressive and sustainable policies and decision-making.
25
26
Table 1
Colombian mineral mass balance in 2011 (Unit: Tonnes)..
Source: by the authors
Balance
Input
Process
Extraction
Copper
Gold
Iron
Limestone
Nickel
Platinum
Silver
Coal
Crude Oil
Nat. gas
Total
Table 2
Colombian mineral balance in 2011 for the exergy replacement cost (Unit: ktoe). .
Source: by the authors
Output
4.04 10
55.9
1.74 105
1.34 107
1.26 105
1.23
24.0
8.58 107
4.82 107
7.12 106
1.55 108
Import
73.4
0.66
2.83 104
18.5
3.36 102
24
16.0
8.35 103
3.71 104
Recycling
2
6.17 10
6.80
6.20 10 2
6.24 102
Export
Consumption
3
3.87 10
60.1
5.38
2.48 104
1.12 105
1.16
19.2
8.12 107
2.95 107
1.42 103
1.11 108
8.64 10
3.22
2.03 105
1.33 107
1.47 104
0.32
20.9
4.59 106
1.88 107
7.12 106
4.40 107
Most of the values are from 2011, except copper recycling (2004).
fossil fuel data, the national dependence on iron becomes noticeable whilst nickel becomes the most important export.
In analysing the same minerals in exergy terms (Table 2), oil
and coal once more are the most signicant. Oil extraction,
measured in percentage mass represents 31.1% of the total. This
percentage increases to 43.3%, if oil extraction is measured using
exergy replacement costs. The same thing happens for gas extraction (going from 4.6% to 7.2%), and coal extraction changes too
(dropping from 55.4% to 47.6%, but remaining the most extracted
of all minerals). Exports, for their part, correspond to 73% of all
mineral resources mined nationally. The fraction of imported
products remains unsubstantial. Recycling rates are low as such
practices are underdeveloped.
If the role of fossil fuels is disregarded, the iron, which played
an important role in mass terms, is not exergetically signicant.
Gold becomes much more important with its relevance going from
negligible to 38%, not only because it has a greater exergy
replacement cost but also because almost all of its production is
destined for export. Furthermore, in this exergy analysis, nickel
increases in importance from 0.9% to 22% whilst that of limestone
drops from 96% to 36%.
The exergy replacement costs for the mineral balance of 2011,
collectively represent a mineral loss of approximately 121.5 Mtoe,
if one considers both the import and recycling values. Such a loss
Balance
Input
Process
Production Import
Recycling
Export
Consumption
Copper
Gold
Iron
Limestone
Nickel
Platinuma
Silver
Coal
Oil
Nat. gas
Total
11.0
8.01 102
76.0
8.58 102
5.18 102
N/A
4.35
5.79 104
5.26 104
8.72 103
1.21 105
1.66
97.4
1.12 10 2
99.1
10.5
8.62 102
2.34 10 3
1.59
4.59 102
N/A
3.47
5.48 104
3.21 104
1.74
8.82 104
2.33
46.2
88.3
8.57 102
60.6
N/A
3.79
3.09 103
2.05 104
8.72 103
3.33 104
Output
0.20
9.46
12.3
1.19 10 3
1.38
N/A
2.90
5.63
31.9
The exergy replacement cost factor for platinum was not available.
27
Fig. 3. Exergy replacement costs due to raw-material production and imports in 2011 .
Source: By authors
Fig. 4. Comparison of Colombian mineral balance in 2011 between mass and the exergy replacement cost without fossil fuels. .
Source: by the authors
Table 3
Monetary costs of the main mineral reserves depletion in Colombia due to mineral production in 2011. .
Source: by the authors
Mineral
ERC (ktoe)
Market price
Lower bound
Non fuels
Coal
Oil
Gas
Total
2.269
57.882
52.577
8.723
121.451
970.16
97
111
0.24
Upper bound
Price ($US/toe)
(%) GDP
1792.645
179
746
216
405,832,4756,000,606,218
10,352,682,397
39,241,707,833
1,884,211,588
51,884,434,29357,479,208,036
0.11.2
3.3
12.6
0.4
16.717.7
Unit
$US/tonne$US/kW h
$US/tonne
$US/barrel
$US/m3
28
co/?view=article&id=580%3Ala-renta-minera-yel-%20plan-de-desarrol
lo-2010-2014&option=com_content&Itemid=103 (accessed 01.07.08).
Graedel, T.E., Allwood, J., Birat, J.-P., Reck, B.K., Sibley, S.F., Sonnemann, G., Buchert,
M., Hagelken, C. (2011). UNEP Recycling Rates of Metals A Status Report, A
Report of the Working Group on the Global Metal Flows to the International
Resource Panel.
Kooroshy, J., Meindersma, C., Podkolinski, R., Rademaker, M., Sweijs, T., Diederen, A.,
de Goede, S., 2009. Scarcity of Minerals. A Strategic Security Issue Tech. Rep. 0201-10. The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, the Netherlands.
MME Ministerio de Minas y Energa (2013). Correspondencia personal de la
Direccin de Minera Empresaria RAD 2013073505 (21.11.13).
Peace Brigade International (2011. Colombia Mining in Colombia: at what Cost? PBI
Colombia.
Revenue Watch Institute (2013). Resource Governance Index: Colombia. http://
www.revenuewatch.org/sites/default/les/country_pdfs/colombiaRGI2013.pdf
(Accessed 01.12.13).
Rudas, G. (2012a). La Locomotora Minera Crecimiento Compatible con la adpatacin al cambio climtico? Foro Nacional Ambiental & Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
-FECOL, Taller Regional Planicacin y Financiamiento de Polticas Pblicas
con incidencia en la Diversidad Biolgica de la Amazona Andina. http://www.
amazonia-andina.org/sites/default/les/presentacion_guillermo_rudas_consul
tor.pdf (accessed 01.10.13).
Rudas, G. (2012b). Algo Anda Mal: La Minera No Es Una Panacea Para El Desarrollo
Social o El Equilibrio Fiscal Colombia Punto Medio.
SIMCO Sistema de Informacin Minero Colombiano (2013). Produccin Ocial de
Minerales en Colombia. http://www.simco.gov.co/simco/Estad%EDsticas/Pro
ducci%F3n/tabid/121/Default.aspx (Accessed 29.10.13).
Sanchez-Garzoli (2012). Stopping Irreparable Harm: Acting on Colombia's AfroColombian and Indigneous Communities Protection Crisis NOREF.
UPME (2006). Colombia Pas Minero: Plan Nacional para el Desarrollo Minero,
Visin 2019. Subdireccin de Planeacin Minero. http://www.upme.gov.co/
Docs/PNDM_2019_Final.pdf (accessed 01.10.13).
Valero, A., 1998. Thermoeconomics as a conceptual basis for energy-ecological
analysis. In: Ulgiati, S. (Ed.), Advances in Energy Studies. Energy Flows in
Ecology and Economy, 1998. Musis, Roma, pp. 415444.
Valero, A., Valero, A., 2010. Physical geonomics: combining the exergy and Hubbert
peak analysis for predicting mineral resource depletion. Resour. Conserve.
Recycl. 54 (12), 10741083.
Valero, A., Valero, A.l., 2014. Thanatia: the destiny of the Earth's mineral resources.
A thermodynamic cradle-to-cradle assessment. World Scientic Press, United
Kingdom.
Valero, A., Agudelo, A., Valero, D.A., 2011. The crepuscular planet. A model for the
exhausted atmosphere and hydrosphere. Energy 36, 37453753.
Valero A., Valero A.l., Calvo, G., Carpintero, O. (2014. An exergoecological analysis of
the mineral economy in Spain. in: Proceedings of the ECOS 2014. Turku,
Finland. June 1519.
Valero, A.l., 2008. Exergy Evolution of the Mineral Capital on Earth PhD..
Universidad Zaragoza, Spain.
Valero, D.A., Valero, A., Gmez, J., 2010. The crepuscular planet. A model for the
exhausted continental crust. Energy 36, 694707.
WFF World Foresight Forum (2011). The Resource Scarcity Nexus: Challenges for
the 21st Century. Issue Brief No. 04. http://goo.gl/v22qPM (accessed 01.12.13).