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A2 CP HUMINT REFORM
2ac deficits
Dependency doesnt end overreliance on techint causes intelligence failures
Gabriel Margolis 13 Program Assistant at The Department of Public and International Affairs which offers a semi-distance,
multi-disciplinary graduate program in Conflict Management and Resolution (CMR) for professionals, practitioners and students
who wish to gain a greater understanding of conflict in both domestic and international settings, at University of North Carolina
Wilmington
The United States has accumulated an unequivocal ability to collect intelligence as a result of the technological advances of the 20th century. Numerous
methods of collection have been employed in clandestine operations around the world including those that focus on human, signals, geospatial, and
measurements and signals intelligence. An infatuation with technological methods of intelligence gathering has developed within many intelligence organizations,
often leaving the age old practice of espionage as an afterthought. As a result of the focus on technical methods, some of the worst
intelligence failures of the 20th century can be attributed to an absence of human intelligence. The 21st century has ushered in
advances in technology have allowed UAVs to become the ultimate technical intelligence gathering platform; however human
intelligence is still being neglected. The increasing reliance on UAVs will make the United States susceptible to intelligence
failures unless human intelligence can be properly integrated. In the near future UAVs may be able to gather human level
intelligence, but it will be a long time before classical espionage is a thing of the past.
resulted in legislative change to halt the sale of encryption or encryption services, he would only be hurting the American people,
businesses, government entities who Silent Circles encrypted communication services are currently protecting, Janke told
Defense One. The intelligence community today is a great deal larger and more diverse than it was 50 years ago. Getting good sources to talk
becomes more difficult if secure communication is the sole right of a small handful of people. Janke started the company as a way to
actually meet a military neednot so much as a replacement for tactical communications (many which have their own security problems), but rather to enable
troops to stay better connect with family on the other side of the world without giving away data to potential adversaries or hackers. Where this comes in to play
is when [troops] are calling home and they pop up on their mobile phones and use Skype. Its hackable, not secure and not approved for government use. We
wanted something for those mobile phones to give privacy back. The company started for the purpose of helping deployed troops and human
rights advocates speaking out against their governments , Hyder told Defense One. Comeys telling the guys they cant communicate back home
without an Iridium phone, he said, referring to a pricy satellite phone that can run into thousands of dollars and offers no smartphone functionality. Zimmermann
elaborated on the threat to soldiers posed by communication over insecure networks and platforms like Skype, but the growing need to stay-connected,
especially over frequent and long deployments, makes less secure communication back home from the front lines inevitable. Suppose a U.S. soldier is
talking to his family back home and hes using a tool that doesnt encrypt things, said Zimmermann, there will be leakage of
information things he talks about with his family. Thats just the place where the military intersects their civilian lives. You cant
have backdoors in this stuff because those backdoors will be exploited Look at how the Chinese government exploited the back doors in
Google services that Google built in for law enforcement. The FBIs nascent war on encryption is all too familiar to Zimmermann, who is also the creator of Pretty
Good Privacy or PGP, one of the most used e-mail encryption software packages in the world. Since Zimmermann first published it for free on the Internet in
1991, PGP has helped thousands of people around the world communicate more securely, including people the intelligence and the military community. But
some in government saw the act of publishing PGP as a potential violation of U.S. export arms restrictions (cryptographic software, according to this line of
thinking, constitutes a weapon). Zimmermann spent three years under criminal investigation. The world now relies on software like PGP and encryption in
general. I would like to point out that the legislative environment today is different from the 1990s. Back then, he said, You had to justify your use of crypto,
and attempting to send messages in secret suggested, perhaps reasonably, that you had something to hide that might be of value to the national security
community. Today cyber-security is rising as a consumer, business and national security concernand encryption is a key part of making networks, devices and
data more secure.. If you are a doctor and your hospital doesnt encrypt records, youre in violation of HIPAA Law, said Zimmermann, referring to the Health
Insurance Portability and Accountability Act. A world without encryption is one where hackers in China and Russia can much more easily commit financial and
even military espionage, of the sort that has garnered attention recently from the press and from lawmakers. One example of that is the recent cyber attacks from
China aimed at U.S. Transportation Command. You cant have backdoors in this stuff because those backdoors will be exploited. The governments of Mexico,
Brazil, Ukraine, Trinidad and Tobago, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Singapore and Germany are all using Silent Circles services for secure communication. I was told
the Queen of England was notified of the babys birth last year via Silent Phone due to the law requiring secure communication methods used to inform her first,
said Hyder. The company says that legislation making encryption unavailable to the public could also hurt intelligence collection. The intelligence community
today is a great deal larger and more diverse than it was 50 years ago. Potential sources of information in places like northern Iraq or China may be much less
likely to provide actionable intel if they cant communicate over a secure medium with U.S. agents, contractors, journalists or intermediaries. Getting good
sources to talk becomes more difficult if secure communication is the sole right of a small handful of people. As [human intelligence] assets report on
current activities to journalists or government agents from hotbeds around the world, they can do so knowing they are protected
from prying ears who would imprison or kill them for the information they are providing . Silent Circles encryption not only increases the flow
and quality of information that can be used to target criminal elements but also protect those who are in the fray assigned to collect and report, Janke said. Its a
sales pitch, of course, but Jankes claim is backed up, at least a bit, by the sorts of clients they service. A lot of the guys Ive worked with over the years
[primarily in military intelligence] have come in asking about the Blackphone and have purchased in small numbers, said Hyden. The concern among these spies
was the safety of their sources, people with whom they needed to communicate but who wouldnt be safe carrying around U.S. military equipment. The
vulnerability of conventional phone and text communication could even affect the intelligence environment in Iraq and Syria,
where the rapid rise of the Islamic State resulted, according to some, from a lack of U.S. human intelligence on the ground. I
heard about a journalist in Damascus who was calling her editor to report what was going on in a cell phone. It caught the
attention of the Syrian Regime. They intercepted that and there was a banging on her hotel room door not long after. She had to
escape out the back. She got Blackphone and that solved the problem, Zimmermann said. In working to block Google, Apple and potentially Silent Circle,
from offering encryption, Comey is being shortsighted, Zimmermann said. The FBI is enjoying the golden age of surveillance. Some of this comes form
pervasive cameras, facial recognition, optical reading tech and transaction data. Comey is talking about a few pixels. He has an enormously lucrative
environment for surveillance today that he never had before. Bottom line for Zimmermannencryption is now a tool that can make the world more secure.
Despite Comeys dire warnings about how allowing everyone to talk more securely would make law enforcement harder, agents in the field understand its value.
For evidence of that refer to a talk Zimmermann gave at this years DefCon event in Law Vegas in August, long before Comeys recent moves. The FBI visited us
at our office, Zimmermann recalled. They said Were here to ask about pricing.
suggestionthat such mass surveillance has not only failed to directly stop a threat, but actually makes the U.S. less safe by
distracting resource-strapped intelligence officials from performing their jobstakes his criticism of spy programs to a new
level. "We're watching everybody that we have no reason to be watching simply because it may have value, at the expense of
being able to watch specific people for which we have a specific cause for investigating, and that's something that we need to
look carefully at how to balance," Snowden said. Snowden's appearance is his second in as many weeks. He spoke with journalist Jane Mayer earlier via
video at the New Yorker festival earlier this month, where he cautioned that Apple and Google's new encryption protections are not impenetrable from spies and
law-enforcement officialsa warning he echoed on Monday. "Systems are fundamentally insecure," Snowden said. "Even heavily protected, heavily encrypted
messages are vulnerable."
A2 DA CHINA
debate and how what the NSA director is asking for is quite literally impossible, read this excellent piece by surveillance expert Julian Sanchez.) Its downright
bizarre that the US government has been warning of the grave cybersecurity risks the country faces while, at the very same time, arguing that we should pass a
law that would weaken cybersecurity and put every single citizen at more risk of having their private information stolen by criminals, foreign governments, and our
own. Forcing backdoors will also be disastrous for the US economy as it would be for Chinas. US tech companies - which already have suffered billions of
dollars of losses overseas because of consumer distrust over their relationships with the NSA - would lose all credibility with users around the world if the FBI and
NSA succeed with their plan. The White House is supposedly coming out with an official policy on encryption sometime this month, according to the New York
Times but the President can save himself a lot of time and just apply his comments about China tothe US government. If he knows backdoors in
encryption are bad for cybersecurity, privacy, and the economy, why is there even a debate?
sure any broader loan troubles are contained. I won't begin to argue that there aren't huge inefficiencies and costs to this system, but it doesn't look like the
kind of structure that's likely to collapse, bringing the economy down with it. It's clear where the risk ultimately lieswith the governmentand it's clear
that the government can handle it. What little I saw of China's manufacturing sector reinforced my sense that it's an impressive and
productive part of the economy. China's manufacturing also spans the value-added chain. In the large coastal cities, deindustrialisation is already a
reality; labour-intensive factories have already left for cheaper markets, leaving high-tech manufacturing and a growing service sector behind. In the poorer west,
by contrast, the scope for movement up the value chain remains significant. Much of what rapid growth China has left will be powered, in no small, part, by the
convergence of western provinces toward coastal development levels, and this process is well underway. What's China's manufacturing isn't is labour-intensive,
even at the fairly low-tech enterprises. As large and strong as China's manufacturing firms are, they're not able to absorb all that much of China's enormous
labour force. China seems to compensate for this by absorbing huge numbers of workers in a growing service sector. Productivity levels in many service
industries must be ming-bogglingly low. Hotels seemed to have as many employees as guests, teams of workers with hand tools maintained roadside greenery,
and buildings of all sorts are staffed with large groups of greeters and security personnel. Cheap labour may make some of this sort of employment worthwhile,
but officials also indicated that, in the past at least, the government used public service employment to help absorb workers displaced when hundreds of
thousands of textile and electronic manufacturing jobs were lost to cheaper locales. This may be costly and inefficient, but one wonders if it isn't less costly and
inefficient than America's habit of letting displaced workers linger in long-term unemployment, on disability roles, or out of the labour force entirely. Chinese
officials were quick to play down the country's dependence on foreign demand, pointing to progress in the country's trade surplus. There may be less to this than
they indicate; Michael Pettis writes here, for instance, about financial chicanery in the country's copper trade that may have artificially boosted import totals early
in 2011. China is also cultivating export markets in fast growing countries across central and southeast Asia . But candid Chinese
professionals admitted that trouble in the US and European economies represented a big potential threat to the economy. That threat will slowly ebb as Chinese
consumers become more active. Government officials repeatedly reported eye-popping real income growth figures. But more than one of the people I spoke with
likened the Chinese economy to a large ship that can't turn on a dime. No amount of movement in exchange rates or wages or policies will move the Chinese
economy to a more normal rate of domestic consumption overnight. What seemed clear, however, was that the fundamentals in the Chinese economy
are stronger than many Americans suspect. For this reason, a collapse looks unlikely, and the government has the will and the
means to fight off a short-term crisis. The government cites stability as its source of legitimacy, and it draws a tight
connection between stability and economic growth . Stability, and therefore growth, will be especially important given the
looming handover of party and national leadership from Hu Jintao to (it seems certain) Xi Jinping. The present policy strategy is muddied somewhat by the rise in
inflation, which is a big source of concern among the masses. China will trade off a little growth for control of its prices. Officials will try extremely hard to ensure
that the landing is a soft one, however. (For more on the progress here, read this week's economics Lead note. Markets seem to be overreacting to signs of a
Chinese slowdown.)
without compensation, likely meaning the loss of the code to competitors in China. A
number of U.S. Internet experts that Caixin spoke to said the U.S. government requires companies to provide related
information to meet law-enforcement needs, but it does not ask firms to install back doors in their software. Robert
Atkinson, the president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a public-policy think tank based
in Washington, said foreign companies are concerned that the Chinese government will be able to access to all of their
information without going through any legal reviews. Governments dont need the keys, he said. They just need to
be able to require firms in China to turn over information. Atkinson, who is also a tech-policy advisor to the White
House, said the draft anti-terror law might worsen trade tensions between China and the
U.S. Many Internet experts also worry that installing back doors in software system may weaken system security and
create openings for hackers. Foreign tech firms have big eyes for the Chinese market. A recent
report by the market-research group International Data Corp. predicted Chinas spending on information
and communication tech products will reach $465 billion in 2015. The country could account for
43% of the growth in the global market. Paal said that if the draft of the anti-terror law were enacted
as is, foreign firms would have three choices: exit the China market; find a Chinese
partner to share some but not all of the codes and tech access; or comply with the
government demands. He predicted that the first two choices are most likely . James
Zimmerman, chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce, said the law and other regulatory hurdles may hinder
foreign tech firms from entering China, thus cutting the countrys access to the most advanced technologies. More
controls Meanwhile, regulators are also pushing domestic financial institutions to switch their core computer systems
to homegrown brands, another move that many see as an attempt to tighten cyber-security policies. In September, the
Chinese Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) told domestic banks to improve their network and information
security by increasing investment in secure and controllable technologies. The guidelines required banks network
suppliers to do their research and development in China and hand their source code to the CBRC. Banks were asked
to have new plans for network equipment in place by April 1. Some see the CBRCs move as encouraging domestic
financial institutions to scrap network solutions provided by foreign suppliers. The movement is sometimes called
De-IOE because it seems to take special aim at three big American companies: IBM Corp. IBM, -1.22% Oracle Corp.
ORCL, +0.00% and EMC Corp. EMC, -1.35% a powerhouse trio with deep roots in corporate IT departments across
the country. Germanys ambassador to China, Michael Clauss, said the new tech requirements for banks put Chinese
suppliers at an advantage. He also expressed concern that the new cyber-security policies could make
market access for foreign companies in China much more difficult . The central governments
procurement documents show that one-third fewer foreign tech products were bought last year than in 2012. Cisco
Systems CSCO, +1.39% which provided 60 types of products to the central government in 2012, sold nothing in 2014.
Jing de Jong-Chen, government security director at Microsoft MSFT, -0.37% recently wrote in an article that China
has led the way in setting tech standards in many aspects, but one problem is that some international standards do
not comply with its security requirements. For foreign companies, this gap means big costs to commercialize
products, so they follow Chinese standards, she said. Cyber fighting Friction between China and the U.S. related to
cyber-security issues has increased in recent years, especially after former U.S. National Security Agency contractor
Edward Snowden disclosed U.S. cyber surveillance in 2013. One of Snowdens many charges was that U.S. intelligence
agencies launched 231 cyber attacks in 2011, and three-quarters of them were targeted at China and Russia, including
Chinese telecom companies like Huawei Technologies Co. 002502, +0.68% Early in 2012, the U.S. government
banned Huawei from any investment and acquisitions in the country, citing national-security concerns. The Sino-
U.S. relationship in information and cyber-security issues has been thorny since 2011,
with criticism going in both directions. In June 2013, in a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping
and Obama, efforts to improve mutual understanding in cyber issues were high on the agenda. A month later, the two
sides set up a joint cyber-security team that held its first meeting in Washington. Then in May last year, after the U.S.
Department of Justice indicted five Chinese military officers on charges of hacking U.S. companies, China ended the
teams work. Fred Cate, a cyber-security law professor at Indiana University, said that if the current tensions
escalate, the U.S. may adopt trade measures to restrict technology-product exports to
China, while the Chinese may fight back with similar measures. Microsofts Jing said China and
the U.S. should set up a dialogue mechanism for handling cyber-security issues in order to solve problems and seek
mutually beneficial solutions.
Chinas propaganda has identified a group it calls the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, or ETIM, as a main instigator of Uighur
violence in China, saying that ETIM has training camps in the borderlands of Afghanistan and Pakistan and is closely linked to alQaeda. Given the absence of peaceful avenues of protest and the mounting frustrations of many Uighurs, it is certainly possible
that some Uighurs have joined extremist Muslim groups, and perhaps have instigated some of the Uighur violence . Still, China has
been able to produce no persuasive evidence that any Uighurs at all, much less a significant number of them, have actually joined the international jihad. Still
less has it demonstrated that Uighur violence in China is anything other than local rage at Chinas various methods of control, rather than part of the international
jihadist movement. Given this troubling circumstance, could China make a useful contribution in the newest anti-terrorist battleground,
against ISIS in Syria and Iraq? In general, Chinas participation in international anti-terrorism efforts has so far been limited to
support for UN Security Council resolutions. In the past day or so, for example, China supported a resolution, sponsored by the United
States, demanding that countries take action to stop the flow of foreign jihadists to Syria and Iraq . The online Chinese daily Global Times
reports that China has also promised to strengthen our cooperation with various parties in intelligence sharing and personnel
training. This could be a positive step. If China chooses to make a real contribution against real, as opposed to imaginary, terrorists,
that would, of course, be welcome. But so far, the indication is that that China will attempt to use the new situation, as it did the attacks on 9/11, to divert
attention from its repression of peaceful and lawful dissent in Xinjiang, illustrated most recently and most starkly by the life sentence meted out to the peaceful
Uighur scholar-dissident Ilhan Tothi. If the rest of the world allows this cooperation to take place, it will not be so much gaining Chinese
help in the real anti-terrorism fight as it will be collaborating in Chinas ongoing violations of the rights of its Uighur citizens. Responses Friday,
September 26, 2014 - 9:04am Ely Ratner The question of U.S.-China counterterrorism cooperation is particularly salient in the context of National Security
Advisor Susan Rices recent trip to Beijing, during which she reportedly urged China to join the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS in Iraq and Syria. This came on the
heels of President Obamas comments to The New York Times a month prior that the Chinese have been free riders for the last 30 years. Referring to instability
in the Middle East, he added with a mixture of derision and envy that: Nobody ever seems to expect them to do anything when this stuff comes up. However
unappreciated in Beijing, these comments reflect the commonly heard sentiment that China, given its decades of remarkable
economic growth and robust military modernization, is surely at the point now where it could make more substantive
contributions to the international community. And while Beijing is quick to highlight its economic and humanitarian assistance to
the Middle East, these are obviously no substitute for participating in more costly, risky and difficult overseas military operations .
Theres some logic to the notion that counterterrorism might just be the area for China to step up and cooperate with the United States. After all, Beijing is
now struggling with a burgeoning domestic terrorism problem characterized both by a recent spate of attacks at home and the
reported arrest of ISIS-inspired Chinese nationals traveling to the Middle East and Southeast Asia . Nevertheless, the constraints are
likely to overwhelm any such incentives. Beijing appears happy to continue allowing the United States to bear the financial and reputational cost of being on the
front lines in the Middle East, wary of making itself a bigger target for Islamic extremists. Chinas support for the Assad regime in Syria and its
allergy to American military intervention only complicate matters further. Moreover, Washington is reluctant to engage in
cooperative efforts that would help China develop additional capabilities to oppress its own people, fully aware that Beijing
engages in overseas military activities for training and intelligence purposes. Although there is no question that innocent Chinese civilians
have been killed in terrorist attacks, the sentencing this week of a Uighur scholar to life in prison was exemplary of the thin line Beijing tends to draw between
moderate Muslims and Islamic separatists. A Washington Post headline last week put it this way: Chinas war on terror becomes all-out attack on Islam in
Xinjiang. Limited counterterror cooperation between the United States and China is always possible, and may in fact already be
happening. Leading officials from the two countries certainly discuss the Middle East and its not impossible, for example, to imagine Beijing sharing the
names of persons of concern or relaying information and messages from Tehran and Damascus. That said, regardless of overlapping interests, it is unlikely
under the current circumstances that China will make a significant contribution to counterterror operations in Iraq and Syria.
source code for software used by other governments, including the U.S.," he said. "China's offensive cyber capabilities would be
greatly enhanced with the 'inside knowledge' afforded by such access." "It's unlikely that the U.S. would stand idly by while China
developed an arsenal of zero days behind the guise of source code audits," Erlin added. Tripwire security analyst Ken Westin said by email that this
kind of demand for backdoor access is ultimately a sign that many companies are doing a better job of securing customer data .
"The problem is that this is all happening in public, and the bad guys are fully aware of where their communications can be intercepted and have
already moved to more clandestine technologies and forms of communication," he said. "The end result of all of this is that legitimate uses of
encryption, and other security protections, suffer and the backdoors only work to subvert security, making everyone less safe," Westin added. Back
in 2012, security researchers came across several backdoors in routers made by Huawei that could provide the Chinese government with access to
those routers. Huawei responded by denying that the backdoors were intentional and offering unrestricted access to its source code. In U.S.
congressional hearings at the time, Huawei senior vice president Charles Ding said, "It would be immensely foolish for Huawei to risk involvement in
national security or economic espionage," adding, "There are no backdoors in any of Huawei's equipment."
elevated the issue of cybersecurity to a top priority within the overall bilateral relationship . In response to the importance and
urgency of the issue, Washington and Beijing recently agreed to form a Cyber Working Group (CWG) as part of the bilateral Strategic and Economic Dialogue
(S&ED),3 with the first Bilateral Cybersecurity Working Group Dialogue held in Washington D.C. on 8 July. Thus far, however ,
States in particular; and c) any variations that might exist among Chinese commentators, in both substance and tone. The article addresses several specific
questions: to what extent and in what manner do Chinese definitions of cybersecurity and Chinese views on the cybersecurity threat differ from those of the
United States and other countries? How do Chinese sources respond to U.S. and Western accusations against China? In all these areas, can one discern any
significant differences: among authoritative Chinese sources, between military and civilian sources (of all types), and among authoritative, quasi-authoritative,
and nonauthoritative sources in general? The article concludes with a summary and some implications for the future
That goes nuclear due to command and control hacking, crisis instability, and fracturing nuclear
agreements
Austin 13 [Director of Policy Innovation at the EastWest Institute, Costs of American Cyber Superiority, 8/6,
http://www.chinausfocus.com/peace-security/costs-of-american-cyber-superiority/] //khirn
The United States is racing for the technological frontier in military and intelligence uses of cyber space. It is ahead of all others,
and has mobilized massive non-military assets and private contractors in that effort. This constellation of private sector
opportunity and deliberate government policy has been aptly labeled in recent months and years by so many credible observers (in The
Economist, The Financial Times and the MIT Technology Review) as the cyber industrial complex. The U nited States is now in the
unusual situation where the head of a spy agency (NSA) also runs a major military unified command (Cyber Command). This is probably an
unprecedented alignment of Praetorian political power in any major democracy in modern political history . This allocation of such
political weight to one military commander is of course for the United States to decide and is a legitimate course of action . But it
has consequences. The Snowden case hints at some of the blow-back effects now visible in public. But there are others, less visible. The NSA Prism program
exists because it is technologically possible and there have been no effective restraints on its international targeting. This lack of restraint is especially
important because the command and control of strategic nuclear weapons is a potential target both of cyber espionage and
offensive cyber operations . The argument here is not to suggest a similarity between the weapons themselves, but to identify correctly the very
close relationship between cyber operations and nuclear weapons planning. Thus the lack of restraint in cyber weapons might
arguably affect (destabilize) pre-existing agreements that constrain nuclear weapons deployment and possible use. The cyber
superiority of the United States, while legal and understandable, is now a cause of strategic instability between nuclear armed powers.
This is similar to the situation that persisted with nuc lear weapons themselves until 1969 when the USSR first proposed an end of
the race for the technological frontier of potential planetary devastation. After achieving initial capability, the U.S. nuclear missile
build up was not a rational military response to each step increase in Soviet military capability . It was a race for the technological frontier
by both sides with insufficient recognition of the consequences. This conclusion was borne out by a remarkable Top Secret study commissioned in 1974 by the
U.S. Secretary of Defense, Dr James Schlesinger. By the time it was completed and submitted in 1981, it assessed that the nuclear arms build-up by both sides
was driven not by a supposed tit for tat escalation in capability of deployed military systems but rather by an unconstrained race for the technological limits of
each sides military potential and by its own military doctrinal preferences. The decisions of each side were not for the most part, according to this now
declassified study, a direct response to particular systems that the other side was building. In 1969, the USSR acted first to propose an end to the race for the
technological frontier of nuclear weapons because it knew it was losing the contest and because it knew there was political sentiment in the United States and in
its Allied countries that supported limitations on the unbridled nuclear fetish. As we ponder the American cyber industrial complex of today, we see
a similar constellation of opposition to its power emerging. This constellation includes not just the political rivals who see they are
losing in cyber space (China and Russia), but nervous allies who see themselves as the likely biggest victims of the American
race for cyber superiority, and loyal American military commanders who can see the risks and dangers of that quest. It is time for the United States to take
stock of the collateral damage that its quest for cyber military power, including its understandable quest for intelligence superiority over the terrorist enemy, has
caused amongst its allies. The loss has not yet been seen at the high political level among allies, in spite of several pro forma requests for information from
countries such as Germany. The loss of U.S. credibility has happened more at the popular level. Around the world, once loyal supporters of the United States in
its war on terrorism had a reasonable expectation to be treated as faithful allies. They had the expectation, perhaps nave, that privacy was a value the
Americans shared with them. They did not expect to be subject to such a crude distinction (you are all non-Americans now). They did not want to know that
their entire personal lives in cyber space are now recoverable should someone so decide by the running of a bit of software in the NSA. After the Prism
revelations, so many of these foreign citizens with an internationalist persuasion and solidarity for the United States now feel a little betrayed. Yet, in the long run,
the most influential voice to end the American quest for cyber military superiority may come from its own armed forces. There are military figures in the United
States who have had responsibility for nuclear weapons command and control systems and who, in private, counsel caution. They advocate the need to abandon
the quest for cyber dominance and pursue a strategy of mutual security in cyber space though that has yet to be defined. They cite military exercises where
the Blue team gets little or no warning of Red team disruptive cyber attack on systems that might affect critical nuclear command and control or wider war
mobilization functions. Strategic nuclear stability may be at risk because of uncertainty about innovations in cyber attack capability. This question is worth much
more attention. U.S. national security strategy in cyber space needs to be brought under stronger civilian oversight and subject to more rigorous public scrutiny.
The focus on Chinese cyber espionage has totally preempted proper debate about American cyber military power. Most in the United States Congress have lined
up to condemn Snowden. That is understandable. But where are the critical voices looking at the bigger picture of strategic instability in cyberspace that existed
before Snowden and has now been aggravated because of him? The Russian and Chinese rejections of reasonable U.S. demands for Snowdens extradition
may be every bit as reasonable given their anxiety about unconstrained American cyber superiority.
WASHINGTON Former U.S. and Russian commanders Thursday called for scrapping hair-trigger alerts on nuclear weapons
cyberassault also
exacerbates the risks of the alert status, opening the way for false alarms or even a hijacking of the control systems for the
weapons, it said.Vulnerability to cyber attack . . . is a new wild card in the deck, it said.The report calls for the United States and Russia to renounce the
prompt-alert arrangements and to require 24 to 72 hours before a nuclear weapon could be launched. And it also urges forging a binding agreement among all
countries to refrain from putting their nuclear forces on high alert.There are a set of vulnerabilities particularly for the U.S. and Russia in these systems that were
built in the fifties, sixties, seventies and eighties, said James Cartwright, the retired four-star general who once was in charge of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. Many
of these old systems are subject to false alarms , Cartwright said at a news conference.
--xt no collapse
No collapse 500 protests per day disprove and protesters want to work within the system, not
topple it
Fisher 12 (Max Fisher, former writer and editor of The Atlantic, writer at the Washington Post, How China Stays Stable
Despite 500 Protests Every Day The Atlantic http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/01/how-china-stays-stabledespite-500-protests-every-day/250940/ Jan 5, 2012)\\mwang
About a week after protesters in the southeastern Chinese village of Wukan forced out all police and political officials,
establishing a brief independence from Beijing, they taped a sign to the wall of the makeshift press center where foreign
reporters congregated. It instructed journalists, in English and in Chinese, not to call their movement an uprising. "We are not a
revolt. We support the Communist Party. We love our country," it read. Wukan's movement in December was not as unusual as it
might have seemed. China saw 180,000 protests, riots, and mass demonstrations in 2010 alone -- on average about 500 every
day -- a number that has likely since increased. The villagers' complaints were common ones: local officials exploiting land sales
for personal gain and violently repressing dissent (a village advocate had died while in police custody). That the protesters won
some real concessions from the authorities was also not unheard of, although the one-sidedness of their victory was rare, as was
the international media attention they garnered (that media attention likely secured the victory, for now). But what is perhaps
most remarkable, and remarkably typical, of the Wukan movement was the protesters' insistence on declaring fealty to the
Chinese Communist Party. Though China's 2011 could have possibly seen more mass demonstrations than the entire Arab
world, this is one reason that China probably remains far away from an Arab Spring-style revolutionary movement. Popular
movements here seem to express relatively narrow complaints, want to work within the system rather than topple it, and treat
the Communist Party as legitimate. Protests appear to be part of the system, not a challenge to it -- a sort of release valve for
popular anger that, if anything, could have actually strengthened the Party by giving them a way to address that anger while
maintaining autocratic rule. In the absence of real democracy, this give-and-take between state and society could actually help
maintain political stability in China -- for now. That tradition goes back at least a decade, to a climax of labor movement protests
in spring 2002. In the steel city of Liaoyang that May, thousands of workers massed in protest. Corrupt local officials had
siphoned small fortunes out of the town's factories, forcing many of them to shut down and send their workers home without their
pensions, which the officials had also plundered. Liaoyang's problems then, like Wukan's today, were not atypical: the national
movement toward privatization had given party officials special access, allowing them to get rich overnight as part of a new and
burgeoning crony capitalist class while powerless workers went hungry. As in Wukan last month, Liaoyang's 2002 protest was
exceptional for its size -- tens of thousands marched over several days, shutting down the city and forcing senior Communist
Party officials to respond -- but its leaders deliberately stopped short, even after being attacked by security forces, of publicly
questioning the Communist Party's total rule. They wrote letters to senior officials, whom they addressed as "respected elder" or
"beloved," emphasizing that the protesters were loyal to the Communist Party and asking only for those officials to enforce
preexisting laws against corruption. Philip Pan, a former Washington Post Beijing bureau chief, reported in his 2008 book Out of
Mao's Shadow that the protest leaders privately agreed that single-party rule was the underlying cause of Liaoyang's problems,
but were afraid to publicly criticize it or call for democracy and ultimately decided to appeal to senior Party leaders rather than
challenge them. As long as the political system remained unchanged, they agreed, those with positions of power could always
abuse it, and workers could hope only for marginal improvements in their lives. For real progress, they thought democratic reform
was necessary, and they believed that most workers supported such a goal. But they also knew that persuading workers to
participate in a protest advocating democratic change would be all but impossible. The workers had internalized the lessons of
the Tiananmen massacre. Everybody knew that the party would quickly crush a direct challenge to its authority, and nobody
wanted to go to prison. People were too afraid. The memory of Tiananmen has faded in the decade since 2002. But the dynamic
of China's hundreds of daily demonstrations has remained the same. So has the Party's uncanny ability to keep dissent both
"within-system" and small-scale, almost never revolutionary in nature or even publicly critical of the autocracy inherent in
Communist Party rule. Officials are too smart to believe their own rhetoric about the benevolence or necessary permanence of
single-party rule -- the CPP is not Bashar al-Assad, and they know better than to meet every dissenter with a bullet. But so are
Chinese, whether activists or workers, aware of the Party's sensitivity to popular anger. So, over time, an informal but well-honed
process has developed. And though it allows protesters to often come away unscathed and sometimes with real concessions,
just like in Las Vegas, the house always wins. Again, from Out of Mao's Shadow:
challenges await Xi. But those who suggest that the CCP will not be able to deal with them fundamentally misread China's
politics and the resilience of its governing institutions. Beijing will be able to meet the country's ills with dynamism and resilience,
thanks to the CCP's adaptability, system of meritocracy, and legitimacy with the Chinese people. In the next decade, China
will continue to rise, not fade. The country's leaders will consolidate the one party model and, in the process, challenge the West's conventional wisdom
about political development and the inevitable march toward electoral democracy. In the capital of the Middle Kingdom, the world might witness the birth of a
post-democratic future. ON-THE-JOB LEARNING The assertion that one-party rule is inherently incapable of self-correction does not reflect the historical record.
During its 63 years in power, the CCP has shown extraordinary adaptability. Since its founding in 1949, the People's Republic has pursued a
broad range of economic policies. First, the CCP initiated radical land collectivization in the early 1950s. This was followed by the policies of the Great
Leap Forward in the late 1950s and the Cultural Revolution in the late 1960s to mid-1970s. After them came the quasi-privatization of farmland in the early
1960s, Deng Xiaoping's market reforms in the late 1970s, and Jiang Zemin's opening up of the CCP's membership to private businesspeople in the 1990s. The
underlying goal has always been economic health, and when a policy did not work-for example, the disastrous Great Leap Forward and Cultural RevolutionChina was able to find something that did: for example, Deng's reforms, which catapulted the Chinese economy into the position of second largest in the world.
On the institutional front as well, the CCP has not shied away from reform. One example is the introduction in the 1980s and 1990s of term limits for
most political positions (and even of age limits, of 6870, for the party's most senior leadership). Before this, political leaders had been able to use their positions
to accumulate power and perpetuate their rules. Mao Zedong was a case in point. He had ended the civil wars that had plagued China and
repelled foreign invasions to become the father of modern China. Yet his prolonged rule led to disastrous mistakes, such as the Cultural Revolution. Now, it
is nearly impossible for the few at the top to consolidate long-term power. Upward mobility within the party has also increased . In terms of foreign
policy, China has also changed course many times to achieve national greatness. It moved from a close alliance with Moscow in
the 1950s to a virtual alliance with the United States in the 1970s and 1980s as it sought to contain the Soviet Union. Today, its pursuit of a more
independent foreign policy has once more put it at odds with the United States. But in its ongoing quest for greatness, China is seeking to defy recent historical
precedents and rise peacefully, avoiding the militarism that plagued Germany and Japan in the first half of the last century. As China undergoes its ten-year
transition, calls at home and abroad for another round of political reform have increased. One radical camp in China and abroad is urging
the party to allow multiparty elections or at least accept formal intraparty factions. In this view, only full-scale adversarial politics can ensure that China
gets the leadership it needs. However sincere, these demands all miss a basic fact:
reforming political organizations in recent world history . There is no doubt that China's new leaders face a different world than Hu Jintao did
when he took over in 2002, but chances are good that Xi's CCP will be able to adapt to and meet whatever new challenges the rapidly
changing domestic and international environments pose. In part, that is because the CCP is heavily meritocratic and promotes those with proven
experience and capabilities.
stupid things and inflicting damage on oneself. Moving forward now from here becomes exponentially more difficult. This means finding a way to sustain relatively
high growth rates, when almost everything points to a natural, secular slowdown. It means coping with environmental challenges on a scale never seen before. It
means dealing with the emergence of a middle class, and everything that political science suggests about the difficulties that this poses for authoritarian regimes.
It means finding a way through the middle-income trap. It means restraining corruption that is, if anything, even worse, meaning more systemic, than commonly
recognized. It means coping with the accelerating balancing of nervous neighbors. It means coping with issues of ethnic and regional tensions and stark
inequality. It means drastic and mostly unfavorable changes in demography. And it means doing all of these things, and facing any number of other serious
challenges that space doesnt allow one to detail here, without the benefit of a coherent or appealing ideology other than nationalism and, tentatively, budding
personality cult-style leadership. We dont know how this is going to turn out . For every success one can point to involving China, it is
easy to point to at least one stark and serious problem, or potential failing. I dont share Shambaughs confidence in predicting the
demise of the party, but it does not strike this reader as a reckless prediction. It should not surprise us, and neither should its opposite, Chinas
continued relative success. Such is the degree of uncertainty we must all live with .
Tons of alt causes, and even if CCP is on the brink, wont collapse
Zhao 15 (Suisheng Zhao, Professor, University of Denver. When will Chinas government collapse? Foreign Policy
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/03/13/china_communist_party_collapse_downfall/ March 13, 2015)\\mwang
Yes, the CCP regime is in crisis. But it has muddled through one crisis after another, including the catastrophes of the chaotic,
decade-long Cultural Revolution and the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown, by tackling its symptoms. It is too difficult to predict the
arrival of the cracking up moment now. This current crisis comes after more than three decades of market-oriented economic reform under one-party
rule, which has produced a corruptive brand of state capitalism in which power and money ally. The government officials and senior managers in state-owned
enterprises (SOEs) have formed strong and exclusive interest groups to pursue economic gains. China ranks among the countries of the highest
income inequality in the world at a time when China has dismantled its social welfare state, leaving hundreds of millions of citizens without any
or adequate provision of healthcare, unemployment insurance, and a variety of other social services. Meanwhile, China has become one of the worlds
most polluted countries. The crisis has worsened as Chinas economic growth is slowing. As the worsening economic, social, and
environmental problems cause deep discontent across society and lead many people to take to the streets in protest, China has
entered a period of deepening social tensions. Apparently, Beijing is frightened and has relied more and more on coercive forces. The cracking up
moment could come when economic growth has significantly slowed, and Beijing is unable to sustain the regimes legitimacy with its economic performance.
While scholars such as Shambaugh are warning of this cracking up, President Xi Jinping is likely aware of the danger of possible collapse and
has been trying to prevent it from happening. Opposite from the prescription by liberal scholars and Western leaders, Xi has seen that the key to
keeping the CCP in power is to further empower the authoritarian state led by the Communist Party, reflecting the long struggle of the Chinese political elites in
building and maintaining a powerful state to lead Chinas modernization. China scholar Lucian Pye famously observed that China suffered a crisis of authority
a deep craving for the decisive power of effective authority ever since the 19th-century collapse of the Chinese empire. Chinese elite attributed Chinas
modern decline partially to the weakening of the state authority. The authority crisis called for the creation of an authoritarian state through revolution and
nationalism. The authority crisis called for the creation of an authoritarian state through revolution and nationalism. The Chinese communist revolution
was a collective assertion for the new form of authority and a strong state to build a prosperous Chinese nation . The very
essence of CCP legitimacy was partly based upon its ability to establish a powerful state as an organizing and mobilizing force to defend
the national independence and launch modernization programs.
both to find safe havens and to diversify their portfolios as Chinas growth slows. But in aggregate, capital outflows are modest,
and plenty of rich Chinese are still investing in their own economy. Following an easing of rules, new private business registrations rose 45
percent in 2014 scarcely a sign that the entrepreneurial class has given up hope. The crackdown on free expression and civil society is
deeply distressing, but not necessarily a sign of weakness. It could equally be seen as an assertion of confidence in the
success of Chinas authoritarian-capitalist model , and a rejection of the idea that China needs to make concessions to liberal-democratic ideas
to keep on going. It is also related to the crackdown on corruption, which Shambaugh wrongly dismisses as a cynical power play. Corruption at the end of
the era of Xis predecessor Hu Jintao had got out of control , and posed a real risk of bringing down the regime. A relentless drive to limit
corruption was essential to stabilize the system, and this is precisely what Xi has delivered. A relentless drive to limit corruption was
essential to stabilize the system, and this is precisely what Xi has delivered. It cannot work unless Xi can demonstrate complete control over all aspects of the
political system, including ideology. As for the economy and the reform program, it is first worth pointing out that despite its severe slowdown,
Chinas economy continues to grow faster than that of any other major country in the world . And claims that the reform program
is sputtering simply do not square with the facts. 2014 saw the start of a crucial program to revamp the fiscal system, which led to the start of restructuring local
government debt; first steps to liberalize the one-child policy and the hukou, or household registration system (discussed for years but never achieved by
previous governments); important changes in energy pricing; and linkage of the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets. News reports suggest that we will soon
see a program to reorganize big SOEs under Temasek-like holding companies that will focus on improving their flagging financial returns. These are all material
achievements and compare favorably to, for instance, the utter failure of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to progress on any of the reform agenda he
outlined for his country two years ago. Finally, there is
no evidence that the biggest and most important political constituency in China
the rising urban bourgeoisie has much interest in changing the system . In my conversations with members of this class, I hear
many complaints, but more generally a satisfaction with the material progress China has made in the last two decades. Except for a tiny
group of brave dissidents, this group in general displays little interest in political reform and none in democracy . One reason may
be that they find uninspiring the record of democratic governance in other big Asian countries, such as India. More important is probably the fear that in a
representative system, the interests of the urban bourgeoisie (at most 25 percent of the population) would lose out to those of the rural masses. The party
may well be somewhat insecure, but the only force that might plausibly unseat it is more insecure still . Predictions of
Chinese political collapse have a long and futile history. Their persistent failure stems from a basic conceptual fault. Instead of facing the
Chinese system on its own terms and understanding why it works which could create insights into why it might stop working critics judge
the system against what they would like it to be, and find it wanting. This embeds an assumption of fragility that makes every societal problem look like an
existential crisis. As a long-term resident of China, I would love the government to become more open, pluralistic and tolerant of creativity. That it refuses to do so
is disappointing to me and many others, but offers no grounds for a judgment of its weakness. Seven years ago, in his excellent book Chinas Communist Party:
Atrophy and Adaptation, Shambaugh described the Party as a reasonably strong and resilient institution . To be sure, it has its problems
and challenges, but none present the real possibility of systemic collapse. That was a good judgment then, and it remains a good
judgment now.
--xt resilient
Regime is resilient physical repression will suffice
Pei, Senior Associate in the China Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 3/12/0 9
(Minxin Pei, senior associate in the china program at the Carnegie endowment for international peace, Foreign Affairs,
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2009-03-12/will-chinese-communist-party-survive-crisis) // RL
The CCP has already demonstrated its remarkable ability to contain and suppress chronic social protest and small-scale
dissident movements. The regime maintains the People's Armed Police, a well-trained and well-equipped anti-riot force of
250,000. In addition, China's secret police are among the most capable in the world and are augmented by a vast network of
informers. And although the Internet may have made control of information more difficult, Chinese censors can still react quickly
and thoroughly to end the dissemination of dangerous news. Since the Tiananmen crackdown, the Chinese government has
greatly refined its repressive capabilities. Responding to tens of thousands of riots each year has made Chinese law
enforcement the most experienced in the world at crowd control and dispersion. Chinese state security services have applied the
tactic of "political decapitation" to great effect, quickly arresting protest leaders and leaving their followers disorganized,
demoralized, and impotent. If worsening economic conditions lead to a potentially explosive political situation, the party will stick
to these tried-and-true practices to ward off any organized movement against the regime.
legitimacy of Chinese political power, and by now they have virtually arrived at a consensus: The degree of legitimacy of the
Chinese political system is very high. Surveys have been modified to prevent people from telling lies, and the results are always the same. To the extent
there is dissatisfaction, it is largely directed at the lower levels of government. The central government is viewed as the most legitimate part of the Chinese
political apparatus. How can it be that the Chinese government managed to achieve a high level of political legitimacy without adopting free and fair competitive
elections for the countrys leaders? However paradoxical it may sound to Westerners,
meaning that the governments first priority should be the material well-being of the people. This idea has deep roots in China Confucius
himself said the government should make the people prosperous and the Chinese Communist Party has also put poverty alleviation at the
top of its political agenda. Hence, the government derives much, if not most, of its legitimacy from its ability to provide for the
material welfare of Chinese citizens. It has substantially increased the life expectancy of Chinese people, and the reform era has seen perhaps
the most impressive poverty alleviation achievement in history , with several hundred million people being lifted out of poverty. The second
source of non-democratic legitimacy can be termed political meritocracy: the idea that political leaders should have aboveaverage ability to make morally informed political judgments . It too has deep historical roots. In Imperial China, scholar-officials proved their ability
in a fair and open examination system, and consequently they were granted uncommon (by Western standards) amounts of respect, authority, and legitimacy.
Political surveys have shown that Chinese still endorse the view that it is more important to have high-quality politicians who care
about the peoples needs than to worry about procedural arrangements ensuring peoples rights to choose their leaders. In
recent decades, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has increased its legitimacy by transforming itself into a more meritocratic political
organization, with renewed emphasis on examinations and education as criteria for political leadership. The third source of non-democratic
legitimacy is nationalism. An important part of legitimacy can be termed ideological legitimacy: The regime seeks to be seen as morally
justified in the eyes of the people by virtue of certain ideas that it expresses in its educational system, political speeches, and public policies. The CCP
was, of course, founded on Marxist principles, but the problem is that few believe in the communist ideal anymore. Hence, the regime has increasingly
turned to nationalism to secure ideological legitimacy. Nationalism has more recent roots in China: In imperial China, the political elites tended to
view their country as the center of the world. But this vision collapsed when China was subject to the incursions of Western colonial powers in the mid-19th
century, leading to a century of humiliation at hands of foreign powers. The CCP put a symbolic end to abuse and bullying by foreign powers
with the establishment of a relatively secure state in 1949, and it constantly reminds Chinese of its function as protector of the Chinese nation. In short, it should
not be surprising that the CCP is widely seen to be legitimate in the eyes of the people, and barring unforeseen events there is no reason to
expect imminent collapse of the regime. But the key word is imminent. In the absence of substantial political reform, Chinas non-democratic sources of political
legitimacy may not be sustainable in the long term.
destructive dynamics that have sent countless autocratic regimes to their graves . Among many of the systemic flaws of
autocracy, degeneration at the top, epitomized by ever-weaker leaders, is progressive and incurable. The exclusive and closed nature of
autocracy bars many talented individuals from rising to senior government positions , owing to a pattern of succession that rewards political
loyalty over capabilities. Savvy autocratic rulers favor less talented successors, because they are easier to groom and control. Leadership degeneration
accelerates as the autocratic regime ages and grows more bureaucratic . As individuals in such regimes ascend the hierarchy, patronage and
risk aversion become the most critical factors in determining their chances for promotion. Consequently, such regimes grow increasingly sclerotic as they select
leaders with stellar resumes, but mediocre records. The most lethal strain of leadership degeneration is escalating predation among the ruling elites. The most
visible symptom is corruption, but the cause is intrinsic to autocratic rule. Typically, first-generation revolutionaries have a strong emotional and ideological
attachment to certain ideals, however misguided. The post-revolutionary elites are ideologically cynical and opportunistic. They view their work for the regime
merely as a form of investment and so seek ever-higher returns. As each preceding generation of rulers cashes in its illicit gains from holding
power, the successors are motivated by both the desire to loot more and the fear that there may not be much left by the time they get
their turn. This is the underlying dynamic driving corruption in China today. The consequences of leadership degeneration are easy to see: faltering
economic dynamism and growth, rising social tensions and loss of government credibility. The puzzle is why neither the compelling self-destructive logic
of autocratic rule nor the mounting evidence of deteriorating regime performance in China has persuaded even some of the most
knowledgeable observers that the end of CCP rule is now a distinct possibility. An obvious explanation is the power of conventional thinking. Long-
ruling regimes like the Soviet Communist Party are typically considered invulnerable, even just before they collapse.
However, those who believe that the CCP can defy both the internal degenerative dynamics of autocracy and the historical record of failed one-party regimes
might benefit from reading Russian theorist Leon Trotsky. Dictatorships are regarded as indestructible before they fall, Trotsky reminds us,
but their demise is viewed as inevitable once they are toppled . Another explanation is fear of contemplating the unknown. CCP rule may not last,
but the alternative state failure and civil chaos could be far worse than the status quo. However, the record of democratic transitions since 1974 suggests
that regime change in China is unlikely to be calamitous. The decisive factor will be whether it is initiated and managed by the ruling elites, as in Taiwan, Mexico,
Brazil and Spain. Managed transitions produce more stable democracies . Should this occur in China, the CCP could transform itself
into a major political party competing with others for power, as formerly autocratic parties have done in Mexico and Taiwan . Even a
disorderly regime transition, however traumatic and chaotic in the short term, could yield a system that, on balance, is an improvement over a stagnant,
repressive and corrupt autocracy. Indonesias new democracy may be imperfect, but has thrived despite its initial poor prospects. If there is one lesson to
be learned from the remarkable history of the democratic transitions of the past 38 years, it is that when elites and the public reject authoritarian rule, they do
their best to make the new system work. Should such a transition occur in China, there is no reason to think that the process and the outcome will be
fundamentally different.
the risks, even to a dying regime, may be too high . An unprovoked attack
on Taiwan would almost certainly bring the U.S. and its allies to the island's rescue. Those forces would not stop at Taiwan but
might march on Beijing and oust the CCP, or attempt to do so through stiff sanctions, calling it a threat to regional and world peace.
Such an attack might also face the opposition of the peoples of Fujian , who would be expected to provide logistical support and possibly
CCP survival through enhanced nationalist legitimacy. Yet
bear the worst burdens of war. They, like much of coastal China, look to Taiwan for investment and culture and have a close affinity with the island. As a
result, there are doubts about whether such a plan could be put into action. A failed war would prompt a Taiwan declaration of independence and a further
backlash against the CCP at home, just as the May Fourth students of 1919 berated the Republican government for weakness in the face of foreign powers.
Failed wars brought down authoritarian regimes in Greece and Portugal in 1974 and in Argentina in 1983. Even if CCP
leaders wanted war, it is unlikely that the PLA would oblige . Top officers would see the disastrous implications of attacking
Taiwan. Military caution would also guard against the even wilder scenario of the use of nuclear weapons against Japan or
the U. S. At the height of the Tiananmen protests it appears there was consideration given to the use of nuclear weapons in case the battle to suppress
the protestors drew in outside Countries .41 But even then, the threats did not appear to gain even minimal support. In an atmosphere in which the
military is thinking about its future, the resort to nuclear confrontation would not make sense.
both
authoritarian and capitalistic impulses . Prior to Jike, state online surveillance had been carried out through both centralized
and decentralized means. Centralized systems include large-scale state projects such as the Great Firewall and the second-generation national ID card
widely used in Chinese peoples everyday lives from transportation to health (Brown, 2008). On the other hand, the state also outsources surveillance to Internet
firms through licensing and legal regulations so that harmful content cannot be found in the first place. Jiang/Okamoto: A Case Study of Chinese National
Search Engine Jike 99 A successful national search engine could further centralize data surveillance by providing authorities with
easy access to user behaviors in real time. Although Jike failed in the market, it did not fail because of user rejection of its surveillance potentials, but
largely because of its technological inferiority, poor user experience, inadequate market strategies, management deficiency, and over-reliance on state funding
(Hu, 2013). Average Chinese users, who may distrust Party media, are largely unaware of how surveillance via search is accomplished. Some even suggest that
Jike should exist to balance the market abuse exhibited by Baidus monopoly (ChinaZ.com, 2011). Further, Chinese users are disadvantaged
by the limited privacy protection afforded in a legal system that routinely places state security above individual rights (Lv, 2005). Corporate collection of personal
data initially dominated privacy concerns in liberal democracies, while the specter of the state looms large in authoritarian countries like China (Tsui, 2003).
Snowdens revelations demonstrated, however, that state surveillance is not confined to authoritarian societies. The U.S. and European Union countries in fact
had a long history of extensive data surveillance through programs like Echelon and ENFOPOL (Bannister, 2005). However, the press and legal systems in these
countries are such that state and corporate excesses can be exposed and recourse of sorts, however limited, is possible through public pressure and court
resolutions. 6 Chinas censorship rules, however, are state-sanctioned prerequisites. Without legal protection for free press and
expressions, it is much harder to challenge state surveillance in authoritarian countries. Thus, one can surmise that Chinese state search
engine will adopt technologies similar to commercial firms to track user data. On its website, Jike states that it collects user information such as uniform resource
locator (URL), Internet Protocol (IP) address, browser type, visit date and time, but provides no explanation of how such data may be used. What personally
identifiable information will be retained and for how long? How extensively will user information be shared with third parities including government agencies?
What legal protection is in place for users, especially during data leaks? Jikes vague policies protect its own interests, not those of users. Discussion Instead of
succumbing to the digital revolution and losing its grip on power, the Chinese state has adapted. From e-government efforts (Jiang & Xu, 2009) to the
development of Web applications (e.g., online forums and microblogging) and state digital enterprises, the Party has invested in technological
capabilities, emulated commercial operations and adopted a form of bureaucratic capitalism to ensure the dominance of the
main melody, or official ideology, in an age of information abundance. In this sense, Jike is a new material manifestation of the desire of
the Chinese authorities to control information, enhance legitimacy and achieve cyber power through both technological regulation
and creation. This case study expands the research on national search.
CP CNCI
Members of the tech industry heralded the White House's announcement of a set of voluntary guidelines for
businesses to improve their cybersecurity posture , suggesting that the document could spur private-sector operators of critical
infrastructure to prioritize the issue within their firms. The administration's cybersecurity framework offers a far-ranging
template for businesses in various sectors of the economy, including core functions such as threat
identification and response, assessment tools and guidance for aligning security with a company's business
objectives. The blueprint grew out of an executive order on cybersecurity that President Barack Obama issued last February and came as a welcome
step forward for members of the tech community who have been advocating for the government to do more
to encourage the private sector to improve its digital defenses . "We believe they produced something that's very positive, that
actually is a good framework for looking at cybersecurity," says Tim Molino, director of government relations at BSA, a trade group representing software and
hardware companies. 'Flexible' Framework Offers Broad Guidelines It remains to be seen the extent to which businesses will incorporate the voluntary framework
into their internal cybersecurity operations, but some industry officials praise the administrationKenneth Corbin is a Washington, D.C.-based writer who covers
government and regulatory issues for CIO.com for avoiding technical prescriptions and instead producing broader guidelines that can be tailored to fit in
organizations across the 16 sectors of the economy that the government has designated as critical infrastructure. "The
framework is an inherently
flexible, adaptable document, and because of that we believe that just about any organization can benefit
from it no matter its size or level of sophistication," says Jeff Greene , senior policy counsel at the security software vendor
Symantec. "We are using it internally, and we think it likely that it will be a part of many organizations' overall security program in the coming years." The
government is actively encouraging businesses to adopt the framework, an effort led by the Department of
Homeland Security, which has set up the Critical Infrastructure Cyber Community (C3) Voluntary Program to
support that effort. Through that program, DHS offers companies resources and support staff to help implement the framework. The department says it's
committed to forging stronger partnerships with private-sector firms and will support efforts to develop industry-specific guidance where appropriate. Several tech
groups praised the framework's focus on risk management, rather than pushing out a mandate for industry adoption that could simply create another compliance
burden without advancing real security. "The emphasis on voluntary standards provides the greatest likelihood that the framework will be broadly adopted," Mike
Hettinger, senior vice president of the public sector division of the trade group TechAmerica, said in a statement. Cybersecurity Framework Just Preliminary,
'Foundational' Step Some security experts would have liked to see the administration go further. One is Tom Kellermann, managing director with the
professional services firm Alvarez & Marsal, who served on the Commission on Cybersecurity for the 44th Presidency. Kellermann lauds the intent of the
framework, though he describes it as "foundational," an important step, but a preliminary one. He points to the report produced by the advisory group on which
he served noting that, of the 25 recommendations it made for the incoming administration in December 2008, more than two-thirds have yet to be
implemented. Kellermann would have preferred for the cybersecurity framework to carry more of a mandate, though he credits the administration with raising the
profile of the issue with a White House endorsement and for emphasizing that security must be entwined with business objectives. "It
elevates the
issue to the board level, and proactive CIOs should be pleased with this, because they're going to get more
resources," Kellermann says. "For too, long there's been this argument that security had no ROI." He suggests that adoption of the framework will be
uneven across the private sector. Early adopters will likely include companies that have suffered serious security
breaches, as well as firms in sectors such as healthcare, financial services and government contracting .
Bottom of Form Over time, Kellermann hopes market conditions will evolve to a point where security becomes a chief differentiator in the eyes of customers, with
firms that continue with a lax approach losing share. "I think it's in their best interest from a competitive advantage perspective and a risk management
perspective to embrace this." The BSA's Molino suggests that many
calling it a "living document." The agency says it will continue to reach out to industry with which it worked extensively in developing the framework to help
business leaders understand and adopt the guidance. In that role, NIST will collaborate with DHS in the voluntary adoption program. For its part, DHS
emphasizes the voluntary nature of the framework; it's unclear how it might incentivize industry adoption, though, or if it will develop a formal certification process
for companies that implement the guidance. In Congress, where lawmakers have unsuccessfully floated various bills to improve cybersecurity, debate has
focused on what role the government should play if any in setting industry standards. To incentivize adoption of the cybersecurity framework, the
government could offer tax benefits or certain legal immunities to companies that have implemented it. But DHS can't take either of those steps on its own. "It
would take an act of Congress otherwise known as an act of God," Kellermann says. After midterm elections, he says, DHS could start making more noise
about concrete steps to drive adoption of the framework. Without the aid of Congress, the government could be expected to use its market power as the largest
single purchaser of IT to drive security but that alone can't be expected to bring a voluntary framework into universal adoption. "The next step is a very hard
one," Molino says. "The
next step is just trying to implement it and getting companies to rally around it and adopt
it. How that rollout happens is another challenge."
DA CHINA
1nc china da
China will likely require encryption backdoors now to assuage fears of rising internal unrest BUT
its uncertain citing U.S. hypocrisy is key to resist pressure
Iasiello 15 (Emilio Iasiello, over 12 years experience as a strategic cyber intelligence analyst, supporting US government
civilian and military intelligence organizations, published extensively in peer-reviewed journals, Chinas Anti-Terror Law May Be
Bargaining Chip in Cyber Game, 4-29-2015, http://darkmatters.norsecorp.com/2015/04/29/chinas-anti-terror-law-may-bebargaining-chip-in-cyber-game/)
In March 2015, Chinas Foreign Ministry said that deliberation on a controversial Chinese anti-terrorism law is
other considerations it deems more pressing to its interests. Prior to this controversy, the U.S. had begun to review new trade agreements that limited the
restrictions that can be put on the free flow of data across borders.[xi] The U.S. is currently negotiating with the EU and 20 other countries on a new agreement
on services to guarantee the free flow of data across borders, a negotiation that China has been blocked from joining. [xii] Amending the wording on the current
China a seat at this table and allow it to influence this outcome, particularly as it views information control as an
essential component for preserving political stability and keeping the regime in power .
The plan reinvigorates U.S. pressure on China prevents backdoors and independently empowers
dissidents
Bankston 15 (Kevin S. Bankston, Policy Director of the Open Technology Institute and Co-Director of Cybersecurity Initiative,
New America, Security Fellow with the Truman National Security Project, serves on the board of the First Amendment Coalition,
former Senior Counsel and the Director of the Free Expression Project at the Center for Democracy & Technology, former
nonresidential fellow with the Stanford Law Schools Center for Internet & Society, former Senior Staff Attorney and Equal Justice
Works/Bruce J. Ennis First Amendment Fellow at Electronic Frontier Foundation, former Justice William Brennan First
Amendment Fellow, litigated Internet-related free speech cases at the American Civil Liberties Union, J.D. University of Southern
California Law School, B.A. University of Texas at Austin, statement before the U.S. House of Representatives, Subcommittee on
Information Technology of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, Hearing on Encryption Technology and
Possible U.S. Policy Responses, 4-29-2015, http://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/4-29-2015-ITSubcommittee-Hearing-on-Encryption-Bankston.pdf)
However, the free speech impact of a mandate against unbreakable encryption and in favor of backdoors for government would reach far beyond just the
communication of encryption code, and chill a wide variety of online expression. When individuals believe that they may be under surveillance, there is a chilling
effect that can curb free speech and the free flow of information online.59 If individuals must assume that their online communications are not secure but may
instead be acquired by the U.S. government or by anyone else who might exploit an encryption backdoor, they will be much less willing to communicate freely.
By contrast, encouraging the availability of strong encryption free of surveillance backdoors can enable free
expression both in the United States and around the world , 60 including by stymieing the censorship and surveillance
efforts of governments with less respect for human rights than our own. 8. It would encourage countries with poor human rights
records to demand backdoor access of their own . The governments of countries like China , 61 India, 62 and the United Arab Emirates63
have proposed a variety of measures that would require companies to implement key escrow systems or other forms of
backdoors or stop doing business in those countries, proposals that the U nited States government has criticized.64 Yet how can
the U nited S tates credibly criticize , for example, the Chinese government for proposing an anti-terrorism bill that would require
U.S. companies to hand over their encryption keys, if we impose a similar requirement here at home? And how are U.S. companies
to argue that they cannot implement such requirements and hand over the keys to foreign governmentseven those with a history of human rights abusesif
they have already had to do so for the U.S. government? As Marc Zwillinger has pointed out, if the U.S. mandates backdoor access to encrypted
data, multinational companies will not be able to refuse foreign governments that demand [the same] access. Governments
could threaten financial sanctions, asset seizures, imprisonment of employees and prohibition against a companys services in
their countries. Consider China, where U.S. companies must comply with government demands in order to do business. 65 Such a result would be
particularly ironic considering the U.S.s foreign policy goal of promoting Internet Freedom worldwide and in China especially,
including the promotion of encryption-based tools to protect privacy and evade censorship .66 Internet Freedom begins at home,
and a failure by the United States to protect Americans ability to encrypt their data will undermine the right to encrypt and
therefore human rights around the world. 67 The U.S. government supports the use of strong encryption abroad as part of our
foreign policy objectives, and it should support the same for Americans here in the U nited States. This is especially true considering that
--a2 no brink
CCP legitimacy at tipping pointorganized protests topples the regime
Ong 15 (Lynette H. Ong Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Toronto, jointly appointed by the
Department of Political Science and the Asian Institute, Munk School of Global Affairs, and China Specialist at the University of
Toronto. Postdoctoral Fellow at Harvard Universitys Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies. Chinese Regime stability: sustaining
or collapsing? Asia Pacific Foundation. https://www.asiapacific.ca/canada-asia-agenda/chinas-regime-stability-sustaining-orcollapsing, June 2, 2015)\\mwang
Attacks outside the party: "Stability preservation" Shortly after Xi assumed the presidency in 2012, he shifted the locus of power to the newly created National
Security Commission, which is tasked with overseeing both foreign affairs and domestic security. Xi chairs this powerful commission himself, which allowed him
to concentrate his control over internal security resources and of removing any potential powerful contender within the upper echelons of the party in charge of
this portfolio. The result has been an increase in the scope, targets and intensity of political repression of society . The party's coercive
apparatus, or "stability preservation" (weiwen), to use the official rhetoric, expanded significantly under Hu Jintao, though its origins date back to the post-1989
crackdown. But the scope of the coercive apparatus has widened even further to include Internet monitoring and censorship , the
Public Security Bureau, the policy and state intelligence agencies, the People's Armed Police, the paramilitary forces, local "stability-maintenance units," and
urban patrols or chengguan. In addition, Xi inherited a budget for "stability preservation" that reportedly increased more than five-fold between 2002 and 2012,
from 132.8 billion yuan (US$16.2 billion) to 702 billion yuan ($111 billion), exceeding the officially published military budget. A recent Freedom House report notes
that a wide range of groups have experienced an increase in repression since 2013, including grassroots rights activists, online
opinion leaders, internet users, business people, party cadres, labour leaders, scholars and professors, print and television journalists, Christians,
Tibetans and Uighurs. And Document No. 9, issued by the Central Committee in 2013, ordered all relevant institutions to stem any endorsement of universal
"Western" values, such as media freedom, civil society and judicial independence. Reaching a turning point? The harsh crackdown has also been applied to
commercial media and social media. The Central Internet Security and Informational Leading Group was set up in 2014 to coordinate work on cyber security and
internet censoring. Internet censoring used to be largely outsourced to Internet companies that keep an eye on their users. This new leading group, also headed
by Xi, indicates that information control is a high priority. The filtering and management of content is now increasingly centrally controlled and coordinated. The
once-fiery Southern Weekly, which had served as the leading example of commercialized media pushing the envelope of press freedom, has largely lost its
luster. Online opinion leaders, such as blogger Murong Xuecun, who had millions of followers on social media, saw their freedom of speech significantly curtailed.
Sina Weibo, the equivalent of Twitter in China, which was once a platform for raucous discussion of social issues, has also quieted down. Ordinary Internet users
across the areas of businesses, academia, and journalism have lamented that the Internet in China has largely become an Intranet. Yet, the intensified Internet
censorship and crackdown on social media have not intimidated the Chinese netizens. An increasing number of Internet users in China are using
Virtual Private Networks and other circumvention tools to scale the "Great Firewall. " Xiao Qiang of the China Digital Times at the University
of California at Berkeley argues that the crackdown has emboldened Internet users to seek alternative ways to express their opinions, rather than injecting fear
among them. The crackdown has also increased resentment against the censorship apparatus. Freedom House has observed civil society resilience amid the
crackdowns. Some civil society organizations might have been pushed underground, but they are not giving up the fight for their causes. Repression has
strained state-society relations and led to declining regime legitimacy . Although citizens may not have the resources or mobilizing structures to
organize large-scale collective action, it is nonetheless significant that the grievances that motivate them to do so are now stronger than ever before. After the
Tiananmen incident in 1989, there was an implicit social contract in which citizens agreed to political acquiescence in exchange for the regime's delivery of
economic prosperity. So far, the regime has largely held up its end of the deal: Real income for the urban middle class has been rising, though housing
affordability is a major concern, and wages of migrant workers have risen sharply in the last decade, making them significantly better off than a generation ago.
However, with slower economic growth, the regime's ability to maintain performance legitimacy now comes under increased scrutiny.
This scrutiny, coupled with the falling regime legitimacy from the intensified crackdown, seems to be bringing the populace
closer to the breaking point than any period after 1989. In essence, Xi is implementing harsh repression within as well as outside the system.
Thus far, he seems to have the support of the other members of the Politburo Standing Committee, the apex of the party's power. But, the anti-corruption
campaign is having chilling effects on bureaucrats, party rank-and-file and leaders across all levels . They constantly live in fear under the
current political climate. The fact that some of them have become disenfranchised with the party leadership was not unforeseeable. Yet, they are also the
very implementers of Xi's repressive actions on those outside the system. This makes the simultaneous timing of both repressive measures unwise, at least from
the perspective of party preservation. If there is a common cause or interest around which those within and outside the system could
Freedom House's interviews with activists suggest some security agents have decided not to enforce
their superior's instructions strictly out of sympathy or conscience.
--a2 no lashout
Chinese Instability escalates to CCP lashout
Shirk, expert on Chinese politics, 2007
(Susan L. Shirk, expert on Chinese politics and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State during the Clinton administration, also
in the Bureau of East Asia and Pacific Affairs, and professor at the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific
Studies at the University of California in San Diego, China Fragile Superpower published by Oxford University Press, Chapter
3, page 69.) // RL
As Chinas leaders well know, the greatest political risk lying ahead of them is the possibility of an economic crash that throws
millions of workers out of their jobs or sends millions of depositors to withdraw their savings from the shaky banking system. A
massive environmental or public health disaster also could trigger regime collapse, especially if peoples lives are endangered by
a media cover-up imposed by Party authorities. Nationwide rebellion becomes a real possibility when large numbers of people
are upset about the same issue at the same time. Another dangerous scenario is a domestic or international crisis in which the
CCP leaders feel compelled to lash out against Japan, Taiwan, or the United States because from their point of view not lashing
out might endanger Party rule.
step down from the stage of history! Wed rather have the whole world, or even the entire globe, share life and death with
us than step down from the stage of history!!! Isnt there a nuclear bondage theory? It means that since the nuclear weapons have bound the security of the
entire world, all will die together if death is inevitable. In my view, there is another kind of bondage, and that is, the fate our Party is tied up with that of the whole
world. If we, the CCP, are over, China will be over, and the world will be over. 3) It is indeed brutal to kill one or two hundred million Americans. But that is the
only path that will secure a Chinese century, a century in which the CCP leads the world. We, as revolutionary humanitarians, do not want
deaths. But if history confronts us with a choice between deaths of Chinese and those of Americans, wed have to pick the latter, as,
for us,
it is more important to safeguard the lives of the Chinese people and the life of our Party . That is because, after all, we are
Chinese and members of the CCP. Since the day we joined the CCP, the Partys life has always been above all else! Since the Partys life is above all
else, it would not be surprising if the CCP resorts to the use of biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons in its attempt to
postpone its life. The CCP, that disregards human life, would not hesitate to kill two hundred million Americans, coupled with
seven or eight hundred million Chinese, to achieve its ends. The speech, free of all disguises, lets the public see the CCP for what it really is: with evil
filling its every cell, the CCP intends to fight all of mankind in its desperate attempt to cling to life. And that is the theme of the speech. The theme is murderous
and utterly evil. We did witness in China beggars who demanded money from people by threatening to stab themselves with knives or prick their throats on long
nails. But we have never, until now, seen a rogue who blackmails the world to die with it by wielding biological, chemical, and nuclear
weapons. Anyhow, the bloody confession affirmed the CCPs bloodiness: a monstrous murderer, who has killed 80 million Chinese people, now plans to hold
one billion people hostage and gamble with their lives.
exodus of refugees from a collapsed PRC would no doubt put a severe strain on the limited resources of China's neighbours. A
fragmented China could also result in another nightmare scenario nuclear weapons falling into the hands of
irresponsible local provincial leaders or warlords .12 From this perspective, a disintegrating China would also pose a threat to its
neighbours and the world.
CCP collapse turns the economy and causes Taiwan and civil war
Lewis 08 (Dan Lewis is Research Director of the Economic Research Council, The nightmare of a Chinese Economic
Collapse World Finance http://www.worldfinance.com/home/final-bell/the-nightmare-of-a-chinese-economic-collapse May 13,
2008.)\\mwang
In 2001, Gordon Chang authored a global bestseller The Coming Collapse of China. To suggest that the worlds largest nation of 1.3 billion people is on the
brink of collapse is understandably for many, a deeply unnerving theme. And many seasoned China Hands rejected Changs thesis outright. In a very real
sense, they were of course right. Chinas expansion has continued over the last six years without a hitch. After notching up a staggering
10.7 percent growth last year, it is now the 4th largest economy in the world with a nominal GDP of $2.68trn. Yet there are two Chinas that
concern us here; the 800 million who live in the cities, coastal and southern regions and the 500 million who live in the countryside and are mainly engaged in
agriculture. The latter which we in the West hear very little about are still very poor and much less happy. Their poverty and misery do not necessarily spell an
impending cataclysm after all, that is how they have always have been. But it does illustrate the inequity of Chinese monetary policy. For many years, the
Chinese yen has been held at an artificially low value to boost manufacturing exports. This has clearly worked for one side of the economy, but not for the
purchasing power of consumers and the rural poor, some of who are getting even poorer. The central reason for this has been the inability of Chinese monetary
policy to adequately support both Chinas. Meanwhile, rural unrest in China is on the rise fuelled not only by an accelerating income gap
with the coastal cities, but by an oft-reported appropriation of their land for little or no compensation by the state. According to
Professor David B. Smith, one of the Citys most accurate and respected economists in recent years, potentially far more serious though is the impact that
Chinese monetary policy could have on many Western nations such as the UK. Quite simply, Chinas undervalued currency has enabled Western governments
to maintain artificially strong currencies, reduce inflation and keep interest rates lower than they might otherwise be. We should therefore be very worried about
how vulnerable Western economic growth is to an upward revaluation of the Chinese yuan. Should that revaluation happen to appease Chinas rural poor, at a
stroke, the dollar, sterling and the euro would quickly depreciate, rates in those currencies would have to rise substantially and the yield on government bonds
would follow suit. This would add greatly to the debt servicing cost of budget deficits in the USA, the UK and much of Euro land. A reduction in demand for
imported Chinese goods would quickly entail a decline in Chinas economic growth rate. That is alarming. It has been calculated that to keep Chinas
society stable ie to manage the transition from a rural to an urban society without devastating unemployment the minimum growth rate is 7.2
percent. Anything less than that and unemployment will rise and the massive shift in population from the country to the
cities becomes unsustainable. This is when real discontent with communist party rule becomes vocal and hard to ignore. It doesnt end there. That
will at best bring a global recession. The crucial point is that communist authoritarian states have at least had some success in
keeping a lid on ethnic tensions so far. But when multi-ethnic communist countries fall apart from economic stress and the
implosion of central power, history suggests that they dont become successful democracies overnight. Far from it. Theres a very
real chance that China might go the way of Yugoloslavia or the Soviet Union chaos, civil unrest and internecine war . In
the very worst case scenario, a Chinese government might seek to maintain national cohesion by going to war with Taiwan whom
America is pledged to defend. Today, people are looking at Changs book again. Contrary to popular belief, foreign investment has actually deferred
political reform in the worlds oldest nation. China today is now far further from democracy than at any time since the Tianneman Square massacres in 1989.
Changs pessimistic forecast for China was probably wrong. But my fear is there is at least a chance he was just early
of the state, or government, is overwhelmingly a function of democracy, Western-style. But democracy is only one factor. Nor
does democracy in itself guarantee legitimacy. A Point of View broadcasts on BBC Radio 4 on Fridays at 20:50 GMT and repeated on Sunday at
08:50 GMT Think of Italy. It is always voting, but the enduring problem of Italian governance is that its state lacks legitimacy. Half the population don't really
believe in it. Now let me shock you: the Chinese state enjoys greater legitimacy than any Western state . How come? In China's case the
source of the state's legitimacy lies entirely outside the history or experience of Western societies. In my first talk I explained that China is not primarily a nationstate but a civilisation-state. For the Chinese, what matters is civilisation. For Westerners it is nation. The most important political value in
China is the integrity and unity of the civilisation-state . Given the sheer size and diversity of the country, this is hugely problematic. Between the
1840s and 1949, China was occupied by the colonial powers, divided and fragmented. The Chinese refer to it as their century of humiliation. They see the
state as the embodiment and guardian of Chinese civilisation . Its most important responsibility - bar none - is maintaining the unity
of the country. A government that fails to ensure this will fall. There have been many examples in history. The legitimacy of the Chinese state lies, above all, in
its relationship with Chinese civilisation. But does the Chinese state, you may well ask, really enjoy legitimacy in the eyes of its people? Take the findings of Tony
Saich at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. In a series of surveys he found that between 80 and 95% of Chinese people were either
relatively or extremely satisfied with central government. Chinese people say they are happy with their government's economic
record Or take the highly respected Pew Global Attitudes surveys which found in 2010, for example, that 91% of Chinese respondents thought that
the government's handling of the economy was good (the UK figure, incidentally was 45%). Such high levels of satisfaction do not mean
that China is conflict-free. On the contrary, there are countless examples of protest action, such as the wave of strikes in
Guangdong province for higher wages in 2010 and 2011, and the 150,000 or more so-called mass incidents that take place
every year - generally protests by farmers against what they see as the illegal seizure of their land by local authorities in cahoots with property developers. But
these actions do not imply any fundamental dissatisfaction with central government. If the Chinese state enjoys such support, then why does it display such signs
of paranoia? The controls on the press and the internet, the periodic arrest of dissidents, and the rest of it. Good point. Actually, all Chinese governments have
displayed these same symptoms. Why? Because the country is huge and governance is extremely difficult. They are always anxious, always fearing the
unforeseen. Anticipating sources of instability has long been regarded as a fundamental attribute of good governance. Not surprisingly, the Chinese have a quite
different attitude towards government to that universal in the West. True, our attitude depends in part on where we stand on the political spectrum. If you are on
the right, you are likely to believe in less government and more market. If you are on the left, you are likely to be more favourably disposed to the state. But both
left and right share certain basic assumptions. The role of the state should be codified in law, there should be clear limits to its powers, and there are many areas
in which the state should not be involved. We believe the state is necessary - but only up to a point. The Chinese idea of the state could hardly be more different.
The Chinese see the state as a member of the family - the head of the family , in fact They do not view it from a narrowly utilitarian standpoint,
in terms of what it can deliver, let alone as the devil incarnate in the manner of the American Tea Party. They see the state as an intimate, or, to be more precise,
as a member of the family - the head of the family, in fact. The Chinese regard the family as the template for the state. What's more, they perceive the state not
as external to themselves but as an extension or representation of themselves. The fact that the Chinese state enjoys such an exalted position in
society lends it enormous authority, a remarkable ubiquity and great competence. Take the economy. China's economic rise - an annual
growth rate of 10% for more than 30 years - has been masterminded by the Chinese state . It is the most remarkable
economic transformation the world has seen since the modern era began with Britain's industrial revolution in the late 18th Century. Even though
China is still a poor developing country, its state, I would argue, is the most competent in the world. Take infrastructure - the importance of which
is belatedly now being recognised in the West. Here, China has no peers. Its high speed rail network is the world's largest and will soon be
greater than the rest of the world's put together. And the state's ubiquity - a large majority of China's most competitive companies, to this day, are
state-owned. Or consider the one-child policy, which still commands great support amongst the population. The competence of the
state is little talked about or really valued in the West, especially in the Anglo-Saxon world. Indeed, since the early 80s, the debate about the state in
Britain has largely been conducted in terms either of what bits should be privatised or how it can be made to mimic the market. Now, however, we are in a new
ball game. With the Western economies in a profound mess and with China's startling rise, the competence of the state can no longer be ignored. Our model is in
crisis. Theirs has been delivering the goods. As China's dramatic ascent continues - which it surely will - then China's strengths will become a growing subject of
interest in the West. We will realise that our relationship with them can no longer consist of telling them how they should be like us. A little humility is in order.
One of the most dramatic illustrations of this will be the state . We think of it as their greatest weakness but we will come to realise that
it is one of their greatest strengths. Beyond a point it would be quite impossible for a Western state to be like China's. It is the product of a different
history and a different relationship between state and society. You could never transplant their state into a Western country, and vice versa. But this does not
mean that we cannot learn from the Chinese state, just as they have learnt much from us. China's rise will have a profound effect on Western debate. The
Chinese economy is set to overtake the US in 2018 In about six years hence, the Chinese economy will overtake the US economy in size. By 2030 it will be very
much larger. The world is increasingly being shaped by China, and if it has looked west for the last two centuries, in future it will look east. Welcome, then, to the
new Chinese paradigm - one that combines a highly competitive, indeed often ferocious market, with a ubiquitous and competent
state. For us in the West this is an entirely new phenomenon. And it will shape our future.
--a2 no collapse
China is close, but wont collapse now: legitimacy high
Tao 15 (Xie Tao,professor of political science at the School of English and International Studies, Beijing Foreign Studies
University. He holds a PhD in political science from Northwestern. Why do people keep predicting Chinas Collapse? The
Diplomat. http://thediplomat.com/2015/03/why-do-people-keep-predicting-chinas-collapse/ March 2015)\\mwang
The temptation to make predictions about China is probably irresistible, because it is arguably the most important contemporary case in international relations.
Thus, a few Western observers have risked their professional reputations by acting as prophets. Perhaps the most (in)famous is Gordon Chang, who published
The Coming Collapse of China in 2001. The end of the modern Chinese state is near, he asserted. The Peoples Republic has five years, perhaps ten, before it
falls, China didnt collapse, as we all know. So, yes, my prediction was wrong, he admitted in an article (The Coming Collapse of China: 2012 Edition). But he
remained convinced about the imminence of a Chinese apocalypse and offered a new timeline: Instead of 2011, the mighty Communist Party of China will fall in
2012. Bet on it. Gordon Chang may be dismissed as an opportunist who tries to make a fortune political and/or economic out of sensational rhetoric about
China. But not so with David Shambaugh, a well-respected China scholar at George Washington University who heretofore has been rather cautious in his
assessment of China. In a March 6 Wall Street Journal article, he portrayed the Chinese party-state as struggling for its last breath. The endgame of Chinese
communist rule has now begun, I believe, and it has progressed further than many think, he wrote. We cannot predict when Chinese communism
will collapse, but it is hard not to conclude that we are witnessing its final phase. Shambaughs article was nothing less than a supersize
bombshell in the China field, especially in light of the fact that the Chinese Communist Party under Xi Jinpings leadership seems to be revitalizing itself through a
the anti-corruption campaign and the drive for the rule of law
appear to have significantly bolstered popular support for the new leadership. Shambaugh actually published a book in 2008 that
offers a rather favorable assessment of the party-states abilities to adapt to new challenges in the first decade of the 21st century. It is unclear what caused
Shambaughs sudden about-face. Some speculate that he was merely trying to get a foreign policy position in the post-Barack Obama administration. Others
contend that he is the Chinese version of a mugged liberal converted to a conservative, that Shambaugh is deeply upset by Chinese leaders intransigence on
fundamental reforms. Whatever the motives behind Shambaughs nirvana, there is no denying that China is facing myriad daunting challenges.
China is sick but so is every other country in the world, though each country is sick with different symptoms , for different
reasons, and of different degrees. Take the United State as an example. The worlds oldest democracy may also strike one as terminally ill: appalling inequality,
dilapidated infrastructure, declining public education, astronomical deficits, rising political apathy, and a government that can hardly get anything done. In his
bestseller Political Order and Political Decay, Francis Fukuyama described the American body politic as being repatrimonialized, ruled by courts and political
parties, and gridlocked by too many veto points. Across the Atlantic, many European democracies are facing similar problems, particularly financial insolvency.
Yet nobody has declared the coming collapse of American democracy or European democracy. Why? Because many Western analysts (dating back at least to
as long as political institutions are viewed as legitimate, a crisis in effectiveness
(e.g., economic performance) does not pose fatal threat to a regime. Thus even in the darkest days of the Great Depression, according to this view,
Americas democratic institutions remained unchallenged. By contrast, if a regime is already deficient in political legitimacy, a crisis of
effectiveness (such as an economic slowdown, rising inequality, or rampant corruption) would only exacerbate the legitimacy crisis . China
is widely believed to be a prominent case that fits into this line argument. China might be facing a performance crisis, but whether it is also
facing a legitimacy crisis is debatable. Beauty is in the eyes of beholder; so is legitimacy. If the Chinese party-state could survive the riotous years of the
Cultural Revolution and the existential crisis of 1989, why couldnt it manage to survival another crisis? In fact, a more important question for Western
observers is why the Chinese Communist Party has managed to stay in power for so long and to produce an indisputably impressive
Seymour Martin Lipset) subscribe to the view that
international prominence, the country still has political fault lines capable of causing an earthquake . With this kind of warning, the moral failing
would be to ignore the potential for regime-changing unrest or any other political crisis that might threaten the regime, and what Beijing might do to prevent that
from happening. The purpose of these tasks is to reduce the uncertainty faced by policy makers as a Chinese crisis emerges and cascades across
the country, as well as to identify ways and decision points where Washington can influence the CCPs choices. If an effort is not made to reduce
the uncertainty, then fear of the unknown is likely to drive U.S. policy makers to a decision about whether to support the Chinese government out of ignorance,
rather than informed calculation.
--a2 resilient
CCP control is fragile unrest escalates
Lee 13 (Ann, senior fellow at Demos, is the author of "What the U.S. Can Learn From China.", New York Times, Civil Unrest in
China Would be Devastating for the World Economy, http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/05/11/have-the-bric-nationslost-their-momentum/civil-unrest-in-china-would-be-devastating-for-the-world-economy)//MP
The complexity and fragility of Chinas political system is something that is often underappreciated by Western observers. The scandal and
rapid downfall of Bo Xilai, a top Chinese government official of Chongqing who was once widely considered for the Standing Committee, was a rare glimpse of
the deep political divisions that exist within the Chinese central government. Although these power struggles have usually been shielded from the public, the
political battles within the party are no less fierce than in multiparty systems in democratic societies . And while some China observers
believe that the ousting of Bo Xilai is a watershed moment for the reformists to continue their development goals unhindered, the reality is that the Maoists
could potentially unite and strike back when everyone least expects such an event to happen. If they are successful in
harnessing the disgruntled farmers and unemployed factory workers in China to rally behind them, it is remote but not impossible
for the civil unrest to turn into another civil war. In such a scenario, Chinas miraculous growth would grind to a halt. A halt to Chinas
growth would spell instant and devastating inflation for the rest of the world . All the major economies -- the United States, Japan and Europe
-- have been printing money with abandon because Chinas productivity exported deflation to the world . However, if Chinas cheap
labor force disappears because of civil war, all the cheap goods that they produced and exported would suddenly be scarce. The
manufacturing in China would not be relocated easily anywhere else in the world for lack of a knowledge base and supply chain
network that even comes close to matching Chinas base . As a result, hyperinflation of the kind that has given the Germans nightmares would
come back with a vengeance. The rest that can follow we already know from history.
--turns relations
Chinese protests cause backlash against the west--empirics
Topping 08 (Alexandra Topping, a news reporter for the Guardian. The Guardian, Chinese Ambassador warns of backlash.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/apr/14/olympicgames2008.china 14, April 2008)\\mwang
The western media's "demonisation" of China could lead to a backlash against the west, the Chinese ambassador to London
warned yesterday. Fu Ying said that "violent attacks on the torch" in London eight days ago, when thousands of people protested, had
convinced Chinese Olympic athletes that people in Britain "were against them". Writing in the Sunday Telegraph, Fu said: "One girl remarked she couldn't believe
this land nourished Shakespeare and Dickens. Another asked: where is the 'gentlemenship'?" The ambassador warned that negative media coverage and t he
protests that have dogged the Olympic torch relay were damaging the west's image in China. "Many who had romantic views of
the west are very disappointed at the media's attempt to demonise China. We all know demonisation feeds a counter-reaction,"
she said. "Many complain about China not allowing enough access to the media. In China, the view is that the western media need to earn
respect." Many people who protested did not understand the situation in Tibet, said Fu. "For the Chinese people, Tibet is a loved land and information about
it is ample ... There may be complicated problems of religion mixing with politics, but people are well-fed, well-clothed and well-housed," she said. Violent
protests in some cities, particularly an incident in Paris in which one protester tried to grab the Olympic torch from Chinese para-Olympian Jin Jing, ran
the risk of feeding the paranoia of some Chinese Communist party hardliners , agreed Anne Holmes, acting director of Free Tibet.
"For some in China this confirms their belief that China has already opened too much," she said. But t he ambassador's comments revealed a lack of
understanding about democracy and a free press in the UK, she added. "Being polite is considered very important in Asian countries. The British also
value good manners, but unlike in China, we also have the right to peacefully protest." Increased economic prosperity masks religious and cultural
oppression in Tibet which effectively amounts to cultural genocide, Holmes said. "Contrary to the rosy picture she is giving, Tibet is an occupied country. The
Chinese government does not understand that Tibetans don't think they are Chinese and don't want to be Chinese . People are not
just going to roll over and say thanks for invading our country." Fu's claim that journalists coming to China to report bad stories "may not be welcomed but would
not be stopped" was ludicrous, she added. A Foreign Office spokesman said the government supported the right to peaceful protest and would continue to push
for free access to Tibet: "If the Chinese government perceives there is a problem in how China is presented in the international media, one way of addressing
that is to allow journalists access to Tibet." Margaret Hodge, the sports minister, will attend the opening of the Beijing Olympics, with the prime minister present
for the closing ceremony, as a government boycott of the games could backfire , the spokesman added. "We are encouraged by the progress that
China has made in recent years, although we of course want to see further advances. But backing China into a corner is not a productive way of
promoting respect for human rights in Darfur, Burma or Tibet - it would be counterproductive," he said. Protests are likely to continue along the Olympic
torch's route to Beijing, which arrives in Muscat, Oman, today, said Holmes. Protests were to be expected if the planned parading of the torch went ahead in
Tibet's capital, Lhasa. "People are prepared to go to prison, people are prepared to be shot and people are prepared to die. The Chinese government thinks that
with enough intimidation they can cow people into submission, but they are wrong," she said.
to communicate with the outside world. Without free communication and cooperation, the country's economy may not develop as
well. For example, in the 18th century, the Qing dynasty in China closed all its borders to prevent the Eight- Power Allied Forces from attacking the country.
Unfortunately, the closed door policy not only did not cease the war, but also closed people's vision and their thoughts. This resulted in the Qing dynasty dying
out eventually. Today the same situation exists with the closed door policy, where people are afraid of the internet censorship causing the country to lag behind.
Being Chinese, I totally understand the attraction people have to the internet, but I also understand why the government implements the internet
censorship. Saunders (2003) pointed that "children need to be protected from some material, such as violent or sexual media content" (P.12-22). I believe that
for children's personal safety and their bright future, it is very necessary for governments to control the internet. An official data report also showed that, Police
reported over 3,800 incidents of sexual violations against children in 2001. The rate rose 3% between 2010 and 2011, making it one of the few categories of
violent offenses to increase in 2011. Among the specific offences included in this category, the rate of invitation to sexual touching (+8%) and luring children via a
computer (+10%) increased. (UCRS, 2012) The figure indicated clearly that the internet is a convenient way for criminals who want to approach
and hurt those naive children. The increasing incidents warned the society that the internet censorship is very important. If State stops the way
that criminals can connect with children or adolescents, the rate of children abuse might be decreased in the future. Secondly, a portion of experts
regard the censorship of communication as centralization of state power, such as the North Korea and the Burmese government.
North Korea is one of the most isolated countries in the world and the government has very strict rules to limited people from communicating with the outside
world. For instance, the North Korea government turned off the internet and television connection when their football team failed behind in the 2010 world cup
competition. The people in that country even did not know the result of the game, because their leader thought losing was very humiliating. Indeed, this level of
control of the internet by the government is very horrible, but the society would be more terrifying without censorship. Like child pornography
rocketed steeply in recent years." Despite the advances in internet security technology , the problem of criminal activity on the internet has only
become worse" (Baker, 2007). Teenagers watch the pornographic and violent videos, and then follow the example of those videos. For example, two
American teenagers shot an Australian baseball player because they were bored; or the adolescent from Pittsburgh high school shot three classmates because it
is cool in some violent movies. The reason for these kinds of tragedies happening is the openness of the internet. Teenagers still do not have strong judgment to
distinct good or bad, so they are easily influenced to follow improper activities from online sources. This proves again that government censorship of the internet
is very necessary. Finally, some people use "human rights" to contradict censorship of the internet. Human rights organizations pointed out that government
censors mass internet mandatorily is a criminal action. Individual has rights to speech, choice and make own decision. Burmese proposition politician Aung San
Suu Kyi who fights for human rights, her documentary was blocked in some countries by cleaned up on the internet. People are very disappointed about the
government's action, and it is true that states should not deprive people's right to watch the movie. Nevertheless, governments have their own reasons to do that.
For instance, The Chinese government censored the internet because some terrorists are trying to split their land by using internet
to spread untrue information. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime indicated that " The use of the internet for terrorist purposes is a
rapidly growing phenomenon" (2012, para.1), such as the Dalai Lama wants to separate Tibet from China, so he used the internet to spread widely many
fake news about the Chinese government to shake the minority's views. Because of his nasty action, there was a terrible riot that happened in Xinjiang province
three years ago, and led to the deaths of over one hundred people. In addition, the U.S.A lawmaker enhances law enforcement's power after September 11th
2001 (Szumski, 2005, P.103). To protect the country's land and the continuous of the happiness of lives of citizens, censorship of the internet is very needed. The
internet has influenced both sides of the evolution of people since it was availed in 1969. It transformed the people had lived for thousands of years. Users of the
internet have continuously increased. Scientists explore space by using the internet; Soldiers utilize the internet to protect the country; mass use of the internet to
enrich their entertainment. On the other hand, a portion of people also utilize the internet to do bad things. For example, criminals who
want to hurt teenagers by using the internet to approach them; video makers who create violent or pornographic movies spread
on the internet to affect young generation, and terrorists who try to spread fake information on internet to attack the country. When people
cannot control their actions while utilizing the internet in a good way, I highly recommend that the governments from every country should implement
the internet censorship to protect citizens from horrible, fake and unhealthy information.
Livingston 15 - Scott D. Livingston is an American attorney specializing in Chinese trade and investment law, with a particular focus on
technology. He has written numerous articles on China's economic reforms and emergent data privacy framework, and contributed to several comprehensive
reports analyzing China's treatment of foreign investors. Livingston was formerly an Associate in Covington & Burling's Beijing office, and now resides in
California. He is a graduate of the University of Texas School of Law and an alumni of the International Chinese Language Program (ICLP) of National Taiwan
University.(Will Chinas New Anti-Terrorism Law Mean the End of Privacy?, Scott D. Livingston, April 22, 2015, China File, http://www.chinafile.com/reportingopinion/viewpoint/will-chinas-new-anti-terrorism-law-mean-end-privacy)//chiragjain
The draft of the anti-terrorism law reflects the Partys concern with two recent developments seen
as threatening Chinas domestic security. First, terrorist groups centered in Chinas far-west Xinjiang Uighur
Autonomous Region have carried out a series of attacks against government and civilian interests over the
last two years, including mass knifing attacks at train stations in Kunming and Urumqi and the crashing of a
Jeep into a group of pedestrians in Tiananmen Square. Attacks by Chinas minority Uighur population on government authorities and
ethnic Han Chinese have increased, though specific details of these attacks are generally unattainable given restrictions on the media in Xinjiang. Chinas
draft anti-terrorism law is a response to these recent violent events. From a Chinese point of view, the law is
necessary to ensure the safety and security of its citizens, and to prevent any form of social instability that
may pose a threat to continued economic development or Party rule. Second, the draft laws focus on
technology reflects the Partys increased attention to cyber-security following Edward Snowdens
allegations of global U.S. government surveillance. This concernthe idea that the U.S. government has similar data-monitoring
practices in one form or anotheris a difficult presumption to rebut. China has defended the draft law vociferously at recent press conferences, indicating that the
Iran, such actions portend an Internet balkanized along national lines. International companies will see increased opportunity, but at a high cost. Although China
boasts the greatest number of Internet users and mobile device subscribers of any nation on earth, international Internet companies long have faced difficulties
providing their services within the P.R.C. As noted above, Chinas new approach to Internet management suggests a scheme by which overseas content is
increasingly censored while international technology companies are permitted (and likely encouraged) to locate their servers domestically, thereby falling under
Chinese jurisdiction. This could mean increased opportunity for global technology companies to offer their products and services within China, provided they
agree to follow Chinese law, tantamount, in some cases, to exercising strict self-censorship. Though the conditions under which this access is granted may prove
too burdensome for many global technology companies, we should remember that international companies in other sectors have put up with other arguably
onerous requirements in exchange for access to Chinas large consumer market. These concessions are not the companies preference but are deemed a cost of
doing business in China. Diminished international markets for Chinese technology companies. Along with the international success of the Chinese Internet giants
Tencent and Alibaba, China currently boasts a vibrant startup scene still largely overlooked in the West. As this industry matures, Chinese technology firms
looking to grow their international market may find themselves stymied by international consumers or governments unwilling to adopt their products because of
security concerns related to P.R.C. government access. This could prove to be a major blow to one of the true bright spots in Chinas slowing economy,
frustrating efforts by Chinese policymakers to pursue innovation-led development and a go global economic development strategy.
--turns cybersecurity
Internet security key to cybersecurity
Swaine 13 (Micheal D. Swaine, expert in China and East Asian security studies and a Senior Associate in the Asia Program at
the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Chinese views on cybersecurity in Foreign relations. Carnegie Endowment
http://carnegieendowment.org/files/CLM42MS.pdf page 2-4 September 24, 2013)\\mwang
Nonetheless, such general statements, combined with the more detailed discussion of such issues appearing in non-authoritative sources, suggest that most
Chinese conceive of cybersecurity in a similar manner to observers in other countries. That is, it involves the protection of the
Internet against harmful activities directed against or having the effect of undermining national security or commercial, social, and individual interests.
Such interests include the capacity of the state to defend itself and society, the ability to compete fairly and productively in the national
and global economic order, the preservation of social norms, and the privacy and security of the individual citizen. Most Chinese have the same concerns as
much of the rest of the world about harmful cyberactivities, including: efforts to crash, slow, or paralyze vital cyberbased infrastructure; the
promulgation of information or images
harmful to the polity, society, or the economy (such as pornography, false or misleading commercial
information, and the advocacy of violent political revolution); espionage; the theft of proprietary commercial data or information; and specific
actions designed to weaken the capacity of the state to defend itself through military and other means.8 Thus, both authoritative and
other Chinese observers believe that cyber security is an international . . . issue and hacker attack is a common challenge facing the whole world.9 The
Chinese also seem to agree with observers in other countries that cybersecurity is a particularly challenging issue because of the technical
characteristics of the Internet and the growing presence of cybercrimes and other forms of dangerous behavior. As Zhong Sheng states: [the Internet is]
transnational and anonymous; it involves multiple fields and multiple agencies; there is a coexistence of hardware and software; there is an overlap of the virtual
world and reality.10 Both Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defense officials repeatedly state that China is a major victim of hacker
attacks.11 Various Chinese sources provide data on the scope of the cyber problem confronting China, but the Chinese military in particular has cited statistics
on the number of cyberattacks on its systems, in large part to rebut foreign (and especially U.S.) accusations that the PLA is conducting huge numbers of attacks
on others (see below).12 In response to such threats, and the overall security challenge presented by cyberactivities, authoritative Chinese sources repeatedly
declare: The Chinese Government always opposes and strictly prohibits any illegal criminal activity by hackers. The Chinese law stipulates unequivocally that
those who commit cyber crimes should undertake criminal liability in accordance with the Criminal Law of the Peoples Republic of China.13 Beyond such
general concerns, the PRC regime, and many interested Chinese observers, places a particularly strong emphasis on the challenges
posed by cyberactivities that threaten existing domestic social and political norms or values (such as the dissemination of false rumors) as well as the
sovereignty of the nation-state. In particular, many nonauthoritative sources, both civilian and especially military, introduce the concept of Swaine, China
Leadership Monitor, no. 42 4 sovereign virtual territory on the Internet (termed cyber sovereignty by some Chinese sources),14 and advocate the need for a
government to identify the boundaries of such territory and protect it against cyberbased threats.15
--turns econ
Unchecked movements would escalate and lead to global economic collapse
Lee 13 (Ann, senior fellow at Demos, is the author of "What the U.S. Can Learn From China.", New York Times, Civil Unrest in
China Would be Devastating for the World Economy, http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/05/11/have-the-bric-nationslost-their-momentum/civil-unrest-in-china-would-be-devastating-for-the-world-economy)//MP
The complexity and fragility of Chinas political system is something that is often underappreciated by Western observers. The scandal and
rapid downfall of Bo Xilai, a top Chinese government official of Chongqing who was once widely considered for the Standing Committee, was a rare glimpse of
the deep political divisions that exist within the Chinese central government. Although these power struggles have usually been shielded from the public, the
political battles within the party are no less fierce than in multiparty systems in democratic societies . And while some China observers
believe that the ousting of Bo Xilai is a watershed moment for the reformists to continue their development goals unhindered, the reality is that the Maoists
could potentially unite and strike back when everyone least expects such an event to happen. If they are successful in
harnessing the disgruntled farmers and unemployed factory workers in China to rally behind them, it is remote but not impossible
for the civil unrest to turn into another civil war. In such a scenario, Chinas miraculous growth would grind to a halt. A halt to Chinas
growth would spell instant and devastating inflation for the rest of the world . All the major economies -- the United States, Japan and Europe
-- have been printing money with abandon because Chinas productivity exported deflation to the world . However, if Chinas cheap
labor force disappears because of civil war, all the cheap goods that they produced and exported would suddenly be scarce. The
manufacturing in China would not be relocated easily anywhere else in the world for lack of a knowledge base and supply chain
network that even comes close to matching Chinas base . As a result, hyperinflation of the kind that has given the Germans nightmares would
come back with a vengeance. The rest that can follow we already know from history.
would not be a reform package (as Pei suggests), but an attempt to redefine legitimacy based on either a return to ideology or on
a populist brand of nationalism. It is difficult to see the Chinese society welcoming back communist ideology, especially since the Deng-era reforms did so
much to distance the state from Maoism. Yet, as Lagerqvist and others have shown, nationalism has growing appeal in Chinese society especially
among the 14 youth.62 The CCP could seek to capitalize on Chinese nationalism and blame its problems on the outside world (particularly the United States).
This redefined legitimacy would help the party retain power, but it would not escape all of the dilemmas of globalization. In fact, as the stateorchestrated antiJapanese protests in 2004 demonstrate, the problem with releasing bottled up Chinese nationalism is that it is not always very easy to control. By
redefining legitimacy, however, the CCP would be able to relieve short-term pressures on the political elites , even if it risks long-term
social instability
Brink of collapse-Chinas economy will not save them now-(only legitimacy will)
Hung, 15 (Ho-fung Hung, Associate Professor of Sociology, Johns Hopkins University. When will Chinas government
collapse? Foreign Policy http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/03/13/china_communist_party_collapse_downfall March 13,
2015)\\mwang
The endgame of Chinese communist rule has now begun, influential China scholar David Shambaugh wrote in a March 7 article in the Wall Street Journal. And
it has progressed further than many think. Is the ruling Chinas Communist Party (CCP) on the brink of collapse? We asked several China
hands for their take: Ho-fung Hung, Associate Professor of Sociology, Johns Hopkins University: I agree with Shambaugh that there are serious cracks in the
CCP regime, not only because of his arguments and evidence but also because of his deep knowledge about and long-time access to the partys elite. Whether
these cracks will lead to the end of CCP rule, nevertheless, is difficult to predict. The prediction about a CCP endgame this time might end up like
the many unrealized predictions before. It may also be like the story of boy crying wolf: The wolf didnt come the first two times, but it
finally came when nobody believed it would come. The bottom line is, the CCP is facing very tough challenges. Whether and how it can
weather them is uncertain. Xi is a leader who came to power with very few sources of legitimacy . Mao and Deng were among the founding
fathers of the Peoples Republic of China. Deng handpicked his successors Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao both of whom got the backing of party elders when
they came to power. Xi, despite his princeling background, is the first leader chosen out of a delicate compromise among party factions. Amidst Xis rise to power,
the mysterious Wang Lijun incident occurred, followed by the unusual downfalls of former top leaders Bo Xilai and Zhou Yongkang. What Wang actually told the
American diplomats during his sleepover in the U.S. Consulate in Chengdu, and what sensitive information he eventually conveyed to Beijing is still unknown.
But the rumor that he revealed a plot by other princelings to get rid of Xi through a coup does not sound too crazy. If this is true, then Xis frenetic purge of other
factions in his anti-corruption campaign makes sense as a desperate move to whip the disrespectful elite to submission through creating a culture of terror within
the Party. Xis purges surely make new enemies and make most of the Party elite feel deeply anxious about their fortunes. It wont be so surprising if some of
those anxious elite conspire to depose Xi. Such internal coup against unpopular leaders is not alien to the CCP it happened with the downfall of the Gang of
Four in 1976, and former party chairman Hua Guofeng a few years later. Second, the partys internal rift is unfolding at the worst possible time, as far as the
economy is concerned. Yes, a 7.4 percent annual growth rate is an enviable number to many other emerging economies. But with the
soaring indebtedness of the Chinese economy and the ever aggravating unemployment problem, the Chinese economy needs higherspeed growth to stay above water. The debt hangover of the 2008-09 stimulus is worrying. Chinas debt to GDP ratio jumped from 147 percent
in 2008 to 282 percent now, and is still growing. It is at a dangerously high level compared to other emerging economies. The economic
slowdown will lead to profit decline for companies and revenue shortfall for local governments , increasing their difficulty in servicing and
repaying debts. A vicious cycle of defaults and further growth deceleration could turn a slowdown into something uglier.A vicious cycle of defaults and further
growth deceleration could turn a slowdown into something uglier. It is possible that the CCP elite, no matter how much they dislike Xi and his anti-corruption
campaign, will still prefer not to rock the boat. They are aware that they are nobody without the protection of the party-state, and their privileges will be under far
greater threat in the wake of a regime collapse. It is also possible that in the years of pacification and domestication following the 1989 Tiananmen Square
crackdown, Chinas civil society and dissidents have become so timid and cornered that they are incapable of taking advantage of any cracks in the regime. Is Xi
successfully increasing his grip of power through the anti-corruption campaign, or does his rule still suffer from inadequate legitimacy behind the mask of
invincibility? Only time can tell. But besides the endgame of CCP rule, we should also ponder another possible scenario: the rise of a hysteric and suffocating
dictatorial regime which maintains its draconian control over a society gradually losing its dynamism. Perhaps we can call this hypothetical regime North Korea
lite.
clear progress paradox . These are urban residents, the more educated, those who work in the private sector, and those who report to have insufficient
leisure time and rest. The papers finding has already drawn intelligent commentary from a few commentators (political scientist Jay Ulfelder and blogger T. Greer
have posted important reactions). The finding that well-being, particularly among Chinese economic elites, is decoupledand even inversely correlatedwith
Chinas overall economic growth would suggest that the CCPs survival might be independent of Chinas overall economic performance .
Thus, the CCP thrives not because it makes Chinese elites happy, but despite Chinese elites unhappiness. As Ulfelder summarizes: These survey results
contradict the performance legitimacy story that many observers use to explain how the Chinese Communist Party has managed
to avoid significant revolutionary threats since 1989 (see here, for example). In that story, Chinese citizens choose not to demand political liberalization
because they are satisfied with the governments economic performance. In effect, they accept material gains in lieu of political voice. The decline in overall
well-being among elites does present a serious challenge to the conventional explanation of the CCPs legitimacy . The authors of the
Brookings report also highlight previous studies of well-being and life satisfaction in China that measured a large decline in happiness among the lowest-income
and least-educated segments of the population. In previous studies, Chinas upper socioeconomic strata exhibited a rise in happiness, somewhat confirming
the conventional wisdom explanation. Additionally, the authors note numerous independent variables that affect happiness, including rural/urban status, internal
migration status (urban households and migrant households report lower happiness levels than their rural, non-migrant counterparts). Where does the CCPs
legitimacy come from then? As Greer notes, maybe looking at the per capita distribution of wealth in China has been the wrong measure all alongits
unnecessarily reductive and dismissive of the opinions of actual Chinese people. Instead, Chinese people would attribute the legitimacy of the
CCP to specific policy initiatives (i.e., fighting corruption, delivering justice to wrong-doers within the countrys power apparatus) as well as more
diffuse, nation-level factors (i.e., the CCPs role in helping China, as a country and a nation, become wealthy, powerful, and respected on the international
stage). The long-term survival of the CCP may be the most consequential question for China in the 21st century, both for external
observers watching Chinas rise and for internal stakeholders. Its undoubtedly important thus to understand how Chinese citizens relate to their government and
experience life as China continues to grow. Still, its best to update our beliefs on how the CCP sustains its political legitimacy when presented
The often-repeated economic performance explanation of the CCPs legitimacy is not only outmoded it
appears to have never really been based in reality .
with new data.
reflects to a great extent the long-standing and strong Chinese concern with social disorder, along with the related need for a
strong, supervisory state to uphold societal norms and preserve social harmony .19 It also undoubtedly reflects the acute
sensitivity of the PRC regime to the potential threats posed by any unregulated activity. Both authoritative and non-authoritative
Chinese sources (and military sources in particular) thus identify cyberspace as a non-traditional yet critical national security interest. For example, one Academy
of Military Science (AMS) researcher states: The strategic significance of the Internet lies in the fact that it has become an effective tool that breaks national
boundaries, communicates information worldwide, and influences international and domestic affairs.20 While stating opposition to cyberattacks and highlighting
the defense of sovereign virtual territory, many non-authoritative civilian and military Chinese sources acknowledge that Chinas cyberinfrastructure and internet
laws are vulnerable and weak compared to those of other countries, and that it is difficult to identify the boundaries that require protection.21 Moreover, nonauthoritative sources repeatedly assert that China is highly vulnerable to cyberattacks because it relies primarily on developed countriesand especially the
United Statesfor core network technologies.22 In response to largely Western criticisms that a state-centric approach to Internet
administration will lead to efforts to curtail freedom of speech and other individual liberties, a non-authoritative Chinese observer argues that: The
government management of the Internet mainly aims to monitor harmful information , crack down on cyber crimes,
maintain order in the cyber world as well as fill the network gap , lift information use efficiency Swaine, China Leadership Monitor, no. 42 5 and
bring more people the convenience of the Internet.23 At the same time, the same source, along with many other Chinese sources, authoritative and otherwise,
also asserts that freedom on the internet is . . . subject to laws and morality.24 Although largely unobjectionable as a general standard for Internet behavior, for
many Chinese, and especially for authoritative and quasi-authoritative observers, such a notion involves a more direct, activist, and ideological role for
government than most Western observers would countenance. As one observer in the Liberation Army Daily (LAD) opined, raising the ideological and moral
standard of the citizens [is] a basic standard for achieving the unification of cyber freedom and cyber self-discipline. 25 For these Chinese observers, the
ideological dimension of cybersecurity usually refers to the defense and expansion of socialist ideology and culture. Both civilian and
to protect Chinas sovereignty and the authority of the PRC government , the Internet in
China must reflect socialist cyber culture and resist ideological infiltration and political instigation. 26 Authoritative
military officials and observers assert that
Chinese sources do not present such a clear and detailed description of the ideological and regime-oriented dimensions of Internet supervision. For example,
while declaring that China supports freedom of speech and the free exchange of information on the Internet, former Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi points out that
there are different social systems in the world, and that Beijing needs to do regulatory work according to law and according to what is in
the best interest of China.27 Although Yang did not give specifics, it is highly likely that such regulatory work includes the type of ideological defense and
advocacy as presented in the non-authoritative sources above.
King uses rigorously observed patterns of censorship on Chinese social media to show just how systematically the Communist
Party works to avoid grassroots gatherings of any kind. King believes Internet censorship in China is the most extensive effort to
selectively censor human expression ever implemented . The governments Internet police force employs an estimated 50,000 people who
collaborate with an additional 300,000 Communist Party membersand thats not counting the employees that private firms must hire to review
the content on their own sites. Over the phone, King told me that the effort is so large that its like an elephant walking through a room.
Together with colleagues Jennifer Pan and Margaret Roberts, King was able to track and measure its footprints, gaining new insights into the Chinese Leviathan.
The Democracy Report In the first study, the team built a network of computers that closely watched 1,382 Chinese websites, tracking new
posts about a variety of topics over periodic intervals to see if and when they were censored. 11 million posts covering 85 topic areas, ranging in
political sensitivity from popular video games to the dissident artist Ai Weiwei, were chosen for investigation alongside online chatter resulting from realworld events. In the second study, King and his team went undercover. They created fake accounts on over 100 social media sites, submitted posts to see which
ones were censored, and even set up their own social media site in China. Two points stand out among their findings. First,
Chinas censorship
infrastructure is incredibly efficient : Objectionable posts are removed with a near-perfect elimination rate and typically within 24 hours of their
posting. The authors write, This is a remarkable organizational accomplishment, requiring large scale military-like precision.
Second, King and his team found that Chinese censors focus on posts that refer to, instigate, or are otherwise linked to
grassroots
collective action such as protests, demonstrations, and even apolitical mass activities , and that the regime seems comparatively
more comfortable with criticism of the government. For example, this passage was not censored: The Chinese Communist Party made a promise of democratic,
constitutional government at the beginning of the war of resistance against Japan. But after 60 years that promise has yet to be honored. China today lacks
integrity, and accountability should be traced to Mao. [...] intra-party democracy espoused today is just an excuse to perpetuate one-party rule. Meanwhile this
sentence, which refers to a suicide bomber whose homes were demolished, was nixed: Even if we can verify what Qian Mingqi said on Weibo that the building
demolition caused a great deal of personal damage, we should still condemn his extreme act of retribution....The government has continually put forth measures
and laws to protect the interests of citizens in building demolition. This isnt to say that the Communist Party is happy with criticism. Chinese
people can still be punished for publishing dissent, especially if it gains traction: For example, a man in Shaanxi Province was recently detained for
being retweeted 500 times on Sina Weibo. But to the extent that criticism is expressed in small ways, it is secondary to writing that might incite
collective action. King suggests at least two reasons for this. First, allowing some criticism might mollify citizens who want to blow off some steam, thereby
keeping them from expressing these feelings more violently. Second, this relative leniency is a useful way for the central government to learn about problems that
require attention. King cites the political scientist Martin Dimitrov, who argues that regimes collapse when its people stop bringing grievances to the state
because they no longer see the state as legitimate. Calls to collective action, however, are regarded as dangerous and are not tolerated at alleven when they
have little to do with politics. In all, these studies provide further evidence of technologys basic amorality: Rather than being a net positive or negative, it merely
amplifies underlying human forces. Says King, Political actors in any country use whatever means of communication they have to advance their goals. If
technology allows them to do it faster, theyll use technology. In some ways, its the same in America, he continues. Large technology
companies in the United States are required by law to monitor and censor illegal content such as child pornography, and, as recent
revelations about NSA spying reveal, Washington has the ability to pressure businesses to get information it wants. But the nature of
government control of the Internet between the two countries is still different. King gave a recent example: A few days ago, the singer/actor Justin Timberlake
tweeted that the first 150 people to join him at a nightclub would get in free. Hundreds of people lined up within minutes. King says, That could never happen in
China.
Confucian slogan Rule of Virtue (De Zhi) into state propaganda and instituted numerous regulations and bureaucratic censorship mechanisms (about 1,200 laws,
rules, and directives in total).13 The regime increased the number of corruption prosecutions to about 150,000 convictions each year,14 with the most egregious
offenders receiving the death penalty. These trials were and continue to be highly publicized, all as part of the governments war on corruption.15 All of these
changes are part of an extensive and ongoing campaign to convince the populous that the regime is truly making efforts to conform to the rules. Governments
conformity to the rules, however, has no effect if the population does not believe those rules are legitimate to begin with. Thus, a normative
justification of the rules in terms of shared beliefs (the second criterion), forms the heart of a regimes legitimacy. This criterion has two aspects: a base
justification of the leaders authority to rule, and a definition of good exercise of power. For a ruler and his actions to be considered legitimate, he must first claim
that his dominance is derived from what the population believes is a valid source of authority (god-given, hereditary tradition, democratic constitutionalism,
popularity, performance, etc.). When the basis that the ruler uses as a justification for his/her authority does not match with the populations beliefs, the
population will withdraw its consent to be ruled. The CCP has historically justified its rule on the basis of performance, either ideological
performance framed through a popular belief in communism, or on moral and economic performance as it does now.16 Unlike authority derived from a higher
order, the CCP ties its right to rule directly to its ability to promote what the public sees as the common interest .
This foundation
of authority is much shakier than authority derived from divine or hereditary roots. With authority based on performance, the
regime must be able to show continuous evidence that its policies are in fact making progress towards the popularly defined
common interest. A legitimacy deficit emerges if beliefs or circumstances defining the common interest change, depriving the rules of their basis of support,
or rendering existing justifications implausible.17 The CCP achieved dominance in 1949 by portraying itself as the vanguard party in pursuit of the proletarian
interest, a class-less society under communism. Maos personal charisma and active ideological engagement of the masses in every village instilled a quasireligious belief in the pursuit of the communist paradise. Thus, the CCPs legitimacy as the ruling party rested on progress toward the ultimate goal of
communism, legitimacy through ideological performance.18 When Mao died the CCP lost its greatest asset: a charismatic leader that could convince the
population of Communisms imminent achievement. To save a crashing economy, Deng Xiaoping introduced trade reforms that exposed many urbanites to the
luxuries of western capitalist life. Knowledge of the high quality of life outside China made it more difficult to justify the sacrifices citizens endured during the
Cultural Revolution because of Chinas communist ideology.19 From Maos death in 1976 until the Tiananmen Square Massacre on June 4, 1989,
popular disillusion toward the CCPs claim of authority on the basis of ideology grew. With communist ideological performance discredited as a valid source of
authority, the civically active began to stress moral and economic performance as important aspects of state legitimacy, two criteria that the CCP lacked.20 As
protests grew into a bloody confrontation between Beijing residents and the Chinese army, it became clear that unless the
government changed its legitimizing values to better match the changing beliefs of the population, destabilization would soon ensue.
To
address this problem, after Tiananmen Square the CCP initiated a series of market-oriented reforms and redefined the national interest as the pursuit of
economic dominance. This shift in the basis of authority instigated rapid growth that, within 15 years, turned China from a backward economy with high levels of
severe poverty into the third largest economy in the world. The CCP launched numerous patriotic campaigns on university campuses and in metropolitan areas
to convince the youth and urban populations to see the government as the vanguard of the newly defined national interest. It also opened party membership to
private business owners to appeal to the increasingly powerful middle and upper classes. In 2001, the CCP radically redefined the basis of the governments
source of authority. This new definition, called the three representatives, states that in order to be accepted by the people, the CCP must always represent
the development of Chinas advanced forces of production, the orientation of Chinas advanced culture, and the fundamental interests of the overwhelming
majority of the Chinese.21 The three representatives is an official endorsement of private business over the state-owned industries Mao emphasized. This
demonstrates, above all, that the CCP decided that abandoning its ideology was better than abandoning its power. Despite the shift away from Maoist
Communist ideology, the CCP remains loyal to the proletariat. To avoid losing the critical support of rural masses, the CCP introduced the Harmonious
Society, in 2005, a set of new social and economic policies aimed at creating societal balance and harmony by improving the lives of the lower and middle
classes. The Harmonious Society includes policies such as an abolition of all agricultural taxes, farming subsidies, prohibitions on local governments selling
peasants land, and popular elections for village governments. In 2005 the CCP also announced an ambitious national health care service (for rural areas) and
other welfare policies aimed at securing the allegiance of those whose lives do not improve with capitalism.22 Finally, the CCP has taken action to increase
legitimization through demonstrable expression of consent (Beethams third criterion). Expressed consent involves the regular active demonstration of consent
on the part of the masses (through the swearing of allegiance, participation in consultations, attendance of ceremonies and campaigns, etc.). Actions of
expressive consent introduce a moral component and a sense of normative commitment into the citizens relationship with the state and confer legitimacy upon
the government. During the Cultural Revolution, Mao relied on mass mobilization as an alternative to popular elections, and the cohesive nation-wide push
towards communist goals during the Cultural Revolution conferred enormous legitimacy on his rule. In the 1990s, the CCPs campaigns to instill nationalism
helped quell unrest on university campuses.23 In preparation for the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the CCP launched a massive propaganda effort featuring the slogan
I Participate, I Contribute, and I am Happy to mobilize the public and emphasize social unity and cohesion.24 The greatest effects of expressed consent,
however, are often seen in the negative expression of dissent. Withdrawal of consent through acts of public dissidence, as seen in June 1989, can be fatal to an
authoritarian regime. The Harmonious Society policy initiatives aimed at calming rural Chinese who protested, sometimes violently, because of the widening
gap between rich and poor.25 The CCP maintains tight control on what information is publicized and the way in which is framed . Even
the Internet is monitored and restricted , as are text messages and other new media outlets. Media coverage of protests and other overt actions of
dissent is heavily censored in order to prevent the dissenting ideas from spreading among the population. Overall, the CCP spends significant time
and money restricting both the occurrence and visibility of public protes t, because in an authoritarian regime with no
mechanism for the peaceful transition of power, mass de-legitimization is automatically followed by either violent
repression or a revolution .26
China needs regulations on the internet for their own interest and ideological defense
Swaine, expert in China and East Asian Security Studies, 9/24/13
(Micheal D. Swaine, expert in China and East Asian security studies and a Senior Associate in the Asia Program at the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace. Chinese views on cybersecurity in Foreign relations. Carnegie Endowment
http://carnegieendowment.org/files/CLM42MS.pdf page 5) // RL
Authoritative Chinese sources do not present such a clear and detailed description of the ideological and regime-oriented
dimensions of Internet supervision. For example, while declaring that China supports freedom of speech and the free exchange
of information on the Internet, former Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi points out that there are different social systems in the world,
and that Beijing needs to do regulatory work according to law and according to what is in the best interest of China.27 Although
Yang did not give specifics, it is highly likely that such regulatory work includes the type of ideological defense and advocacy as
presented in the non-authoritative sources above.
if they write in support of, or [even] in opposition to an ongoing protest or even about a rally
in favour of a popular policy or leader they will be censored. Even more subtly, the volume of protests is used to gauge
whether any given leader is sufficiently unpopular that his removal will make things go more smoothly. In this way the information signalling part of a
market economy is co-opted to the service of an authoritarian state. It turns out that you can say what you like and this includes all the kinds of
hashtag activism. All you may not do is influence events away from the keyboard, or even refer to them. If there is a news story that
suggests there might be a role for protest in the physical world, all comments referring to it are removed, whichever side they
take. This study ought to be the final nail in the coffin of techno-libertarianism. Over the past few months there have been plenty of stories to remind
us how loathsome the internet can be to women or anyone else singled out for bullying. But even when it empowers nasty people, this is forgiven or
at least defended on the grounds that it empowers good people too. The Chinese example shows that it empowers nasty regimes as well as nasty
people, providing they are subtle and intelligent enough. It is also a blow at the idea of artificial intelligence and algorithmic censorship. If the
internet is to capture information of use to the ruling party, it has to be operated by human censors . There are lists of keywords that
will get a post blocked or at least reviewed, but these are very crude and easy to circumvent. There is an improbable precedent for all this, from
another ruthless imperial power that was setting out to impose itself on the world: the England of Elizabeth I. She also had a vast apparatus of spies
and censors, although they were concerned with religious heresy rather than democracy. When she said that she would not make windows into
mens souls it seemed to be a great statement of tolerance, but it was in fact exactly the same as the Chinese policy: think what you like, providing
you never dare act on it. This is future George Orwell never saw: a jackboot poised above a human face and the face talks on and on about kitten
pictures.
passcodes that help protect data, and install security "backdoors" in their systems to give Chinese authorities surveillance
access. "This is something that Ive raised directly with President Xi," Obama said. "We have made it very clear to them that this is something they are going to
have to change if they are to do business with the United States." The Chinese government sees the rules as crucial to protect state and
business secrets. Western companies say they reinforce increasingly onerous terms of doing business in the world's second-largest economy and heighten
mistrust over cybersecurity between Washington and Beijing. A Chinese parliamentary body read a second draft of the country's first anti-terrorism law last
week and is expected to adopt the legislation in the coming weeks or months . The initial draft, published by the National People's Congress
late last year, requires companies to also keep servers and user data within China, supply law enforcement authorities with
communications records and censor terrorism-related Internet content . The laws "would essentially force all foreign companies,
including U.S. companies, to turn over to the Chinese government mechanisms where they can snoop and keep track of all the
users of those services," Obama said. "As you might imagine tech companies are not going to be willing to do that," he said. The scope of the
rules reaches far beyond a recently adopted set of financial industry regulations that pushed Chinese banks to purchase from domestic technology vendors. The
implications for Silicon Valley companies, ranging from Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) toApple Inc (AAPL.O), have set the stage for yet another confrontation over
cybersecurity and technology policy, a major irritant in U.S.-China relations. Obama said the rules could also backfire on China . "Those kinds of
restrictive practices I think would ironically hurt the Chinese economy over the long term because I dont think there is any U.S. or
European firm, any international firm, that could credibly get away with that wholesale turning over of data, personal data, over to
a government," he said. A U.S. official told Reuters last week that the Obama administration has conveyed its concerns about the anti-terrorism draft law to
China. REGULATORY PRESSURE Although the counterterrorism provisions would apply to both domestic and foreign technologies ,
officials in Washington and Western business lobbies argue the law, combined with the new banking rules and a slew of anti-trust investigations, amount
to unfair regulatory pressure targeting foreign companies . To be sure, Western governments, including in the United States and Britain, have for
years requested tech firms to disclose encryption methods, with varying degrees of success. Officials including FBI director James Comey and National
Security Agency (NSA) director Mike Rogers publicly warned Internet companies including Apple and Google late last year against using
encryption that law enforcement cannot break. Beijing has argued the need to quickly ratchet up its cybersecurity measures in
the wake of former NSA contractor Edward Snowden's revelations of sophisticated U.S. spying techniques. China is drafting the anti-terrorism
law at a time when Chinese leaders say the country faces a serious threat from religious extremists and separatists. Hundreds of people have been killed over
the past two years in the far-western region of Xinjiang in unrest the government has blamed on Islamists who want to establish a separate state called East
Turkestan.
China has proposed an expansive new anti-terrorism bill that would essentially force all foreign
companies, including US companies, to turn over to the Chinese government mechanisms where they can
snoop and keep track of all the users of those services. Obama continued: Those kinds of restrictive practices I think would ironically
hurt the Chinese economy over the long term because I dont think there is any US or European firm, any
international firm, that could credibly get away with that wholesale turning over of data, personal data, over to a
government. Bravo! Of course these are the exact arguments for why it would be a disaster for US government to force tech companies to do the same.
(Somehow Obama left that part out.) As Yahoos top security executive Alex Stamos told NSA director Mike Rogers in a public confrontation last week, building
backdoors into encryption is like drilling a hole into a windshield. Even if its technically possible to produce the flaw - and we, for some reason, trust the US
just
cannot be secure in practice. (If you want to further understand the details behind the encryption vs. backdoor debate and how what the NSA
director is asking for is quite literally impossible, read this excellent piece by surveillance expert Julian Sanchez.) Its downright bizarre that the
US government has been warning of the grave cybersecurity risks the country faces while, at the very
same time, arguing that we should pass a law that would weaken cybersecurity and put every single citizen at more risk
of having their private information stolen by criminals, foreign governments, and our own. Forcing backdoors will also be disastrous for
the US economy as it would be for Chinas. US tech companies - which already have suffered billions of
dollars of losses overseas because of consumer distrust over their relationships with the NSA - would lose
all credibility with users around the world if the FBI and NSA succeed with their plan. The White House is supposedly coming out with an
official policy on encryption sometime this month, according to the New York Times but the President can save himself a lot of time and just apply his
comments about China to the US government. If he knows backdoors in encryption are bad for cybersecurity, privacy, and the economy, why is there even a
debate?
U.S. tech giants have come to blows over government backdoors in encryption products lately, with
arguing that backdoors are vital to national security, and the likes of Yahoo claiming it will make encryption
pointless. Well, it looks the party line on backdoors changes pretty sharpish when China is involved. As Reuters reports, China is considering a
counterterrorism law that would require technology firms to surrender encryption keys and install backdoors
for security services something that's not exactly dissimilar to the NSA activities revealed by Edward Snowden. But in an impressive piece of
hypocrisy, the US is throwing up a fit over the proposed Chinese law. Michael Froman, the US trade representative, claims that "the
the government
rules aren't about security they are about protectionism and favoring Chinese companies...the administration is aggressively working to have China walk back
from these troubling regulations." But it's difficult to ignore the fact that the U.S.
regulations would make things easier for the Chinese government encryption keys would
be handed over as a matter of form, rather than on request but the end result is basically identical. Something about chickens coming home
to roost would be appropriate about now. [Reuters]
the United States has accused Chinese military personnel of hacking and stealing from American companies, China has pointed
to recent disclosures of United States snooping in foreign countries as a reason to get rid of American technology as quickly as possible.
source code for software used by other governments, including the U.S.," he said. "China's offensive cyber capabilities would be
greatly enhanced with the 'inside knowledge' afforded by such access." "It's unlikely that the U.S. would stand idly by while China
developed an arsenal of zero days behind the guise of source code audits," Erlin added. Tripwire security analyst Ken Westin said by email that this
kind of demand for backdoor access is ultimately a sign that many companies are doing a better job of securing customer data .
"The problem is that this is all happening in public, and the bad guys are fully aware of where their communications can be intercepted and have
already moved to more clandestine technologies and forms of communication," he said. "The end result of all of this is that legitimate uses of
encryption, and other security protections, suffer and the backdoors only work to subvert security, making everyone less safe," Westin added. Back
in 2012, security researchers came across several backdoors in routers made by Huawei that could provide the Chinese government with access to
those routers. Huawei responded by denying that the backdoors were intentional and offering unrestricted access to its source code. In U.S.
congressional hearings at the time, Huawei senior vice president Charles Ding said, "It would be immensely foolish for Huawei to risk involvement in
national security or economic espionage," adding, "There are no backdoors in any of Huawei's equipment."
President Barack Obama isnt happy with new rules from China that would require U.S. tech companies to abide by strict
cybersecurity measures, but on Tuesday the country was quick to defend the proposed regulations. All countries are paying
attention to and taking measures to safeguard their own information security. This is beyond reproach, said Chinas Foreign
Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying in a news briefing. She made the statement after Obama criticized a proposed anti-terror law
that he said could stifle U.S. tech business in China. The legislation would require companies to hand over encryption keys to the
countrys government, and create back doors into their systems to give the Chinese government surveillance access. This is
something that Ive raised directly with President Xi, Obama said in an interview with Reuters on Monday. We have made it very
clear to them that this is something they are going to have to change if they are to do business with the United States. A fight
over intellectual property U.S. trade groups are also against another set of proposed regulations that would require vendors
selling to Chinas telecommunication and banking sector to hand over sensitive intellectual property to the countrys government.
Although China hasnt approved the proposed regulations, the country has made cybersecurity a national priority over the past
year. This came after leaks from U.S. National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden alleged that the U.S. had been
secretly spying on Chinese companies and schools through cyber surveillance. On Tuesday, China signaled that there was a
clear need to protect the country from cyber espionage. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua pointed to recent reports alleging
that the U.S. and the U.K. had hacked into a SIM card maker for surveillance purposes as an example. I would like to point out
that China has consistently opposed using ones superiority in information technology, or using IT products to support cyber
surveillance, she said, adding that the anti-terror legislation relates to the countrys domestic affairs. China already imposes
tough regulations on U.S. tech businesses through its strict online censorship that has blocked websites such as Facebook and
Twitter. But last May, the country announced it was developing a new cybersecurity vetting system meant to weed out secret
spying activities. Companies that failed to pass the vetting would be blocked from the market.
China speaks either give encryption keys or get out of the Chinese market
Reuters, one of the largest international news providers, 3/4/15
(Reuters, one of the worlds largest international multimedia providers, reaching more than one billion people per day. Reuters
has 2600 journalists in 200 locations around the globe who deliver unparalleled news coverage via professionals,
http://fortune.com/2015/03/04/china-tells-u-s-tech-dont-panic-just-hand-over-the-encryption-keys/) // RL
Chinas proposed anti-terrorism law will not affect the legitimate interests of technology firms, a top Chinese spokeswoman said Wednesday after U.S. President
Barack Obama warned of its impact and demanded amendments. Chinas proposals, which would require tech firms to provide encryption keys
and install backdoors granting law enforcement access for counterterrorism investigations , drew criticism from Obama, who told Reuters in
an interview this week China would have to change the draft law if it were to do business with the United States. Fu Ying, Chinas parliamentary
spokeswoman, said many Western governments, including Washington, had made similar requests for encryption keys while Chinese
companies operating in the U.S. have long been subject to intense security checks . Chinas proposals were in accordance with
the principles of Chinas administrative law as well as international common practices, and wont affect Internet firms reasonable
interests, Fu said. Fu made the remarks during a news conference carried live on state television a day before the start of the National Peoples Congress, the
largely rubber-stamp parliamentary session held every spring in Beijing. Chinas increasingly restrictive cybersecurity policies enacted in the wake of Edward
Snowdens disclosures of U.S. spying programs have become a source of considerable friction in bilateral relations. Also at issue has been a set of financial
sector regulations that pushes Chinas state-owned banks to buy technology from domestic vendors. Foreign business lobbies say the rules are
unfairly sweeping names like Cisco Systems CSCO 1.39% and Microsoft Corp. MSFT -0.37% out of the worlds second-largest
economy, while Chinese officials point to the treatment of Huawei and ZTE Corp, two Chinese telecoms equipment makers that have
been effectively locked out of the U.S. market on cybersecurity grounds . The German ambassador to China, Michael Clauss, also
expressed concern that the cybersecurity policy could make market access for foreign companies in China much more difficult .
Fu said China hoped foreign companies would continue to support, participate and continue to walk forward with Chinas reform efforts. The remarks were more
measured than a commentary published by the official Xinhua news agency, which said Obamas warning to China was evidence of arrogance and hypocrisy.
With transparent procedures, Chinas anti-terrorism campaign will be different from what the United States has done: letting the
surveillance authorities run amok and turn counterterrorism into paranoid espionage and peeping on its civilians and allies,
Xinhua said. U.S. business lobbies have said the proposed regulation would render secure communications unfeasible in China
and handing over such commercially sensitive information would seriously harm their credibility . The head of the American Chamber of
Commerce in Shanghai, Kenneth Jarrett, called for more discussions with the Chinese government. Fu, the parliamentary spokeswoman, said China would
continue to amend the counterterrorism law but would not compromise its national security priorities. We will definitely continue to listen to extensive concerns
and all parties views, so we can make the laws formulation more rigorous, she said. On the other hand, fundamentally speaking, (the law) will reflect our
countrys counter-terrorism interests.
Beijing has rejected President Obama's criticism of its plan to make tech companies put backdoors in their
software and share their encryption keys if they want to operate in China. On Monday, Mr Obama told the Reuters news agency he had
had to change its policy if it wanted to do business with the US. But Beijing said it needed the
powers to combat terrorism and tackle leaks. It also suggested the West was guilty of having double standards. "The legislation is China's domestic
affair, and we hope the US side can take a right, sober and objective view towards it," said Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying. "On the
information-security issue, there was a [recent] media revelation that a certain country embedded spying software in
the computer system of another country's Sim card maker, for surveillance activities. This is only one out of the recently disclosed cases. "All countries are paying
close attention to this and taking measures to safeguard their own information security, an act that is beyond any reproach." The case she was referring to
involved allegations that US cyber-spies had hacked a Dutch Sim card manufacturer in order to help decrypt their targets' communications. At another press
conference, parliamentary spokeswoman Fu Ying drew attention to the fact that the US government had imposed restrictions on Chinese companies including
Huawei and ZTE. And she suggested that Beijing's
"would essentially force all foreign companies, including US companies, to turn over
to the Chinese government mechanisms where they can snoop and keep track of all the users of those services",
the US leader said. "As you might imagine tech companies are not going to be willing to do that ," he added. Microsoft, Cisco, Oracle
and IBM are among firms that would potentially be affected. While the comments by Chinese officials were measured, the government's press service, Xinhua,
was more critical. It accused the US leader of arrogance and hypocrisy, noting that the FBI had criticised Apple and Google last year for building encryption into
their smartphone operating systems, and again drew attention to allegations about the US National Security Agency's activities made public by the whistleblower
Edward Snowden. "With
transparent procedures, China's anti-terrorism campaign will be different from what the
United States has done: letting the surveillance authorities run amok and turn counter-terrorism into paranoid
espionage and peeping on its civilians and allies," Xinhua wrote. "Contrary to the accusations of the United States, China's anti-terror law will put
no unfair regulatory pressures on foreign companies, because the provisions will apply to both domestic
and foreign firms." Insecure systems The Conservative party has indicated it wants to expand the UK's cyber-spies' surveillance powers it if wins the
May election. Microsoft sign in China US firms, including Microsoft, are hoping to boost profits by selling their services to China "Our manifesto will make clear
that we will... use all the legal powers available to us to make sure that, where appropriate, the intelligence and security agencies have the maximum capability to
intercept the communications of suspects while making sure that such intrusive techniques are properly overseen," Home Secretary Theresa May told Parliament
in January. One expert said it should be no surprise that the West was finding it difficult to prevent China seeking greater cyber-surveillance powers of its own,
but added there were good reasons to fear its proposals. "Either behind the scenes or increasingly openly, the US and UK are justifying similar behaviour for their
own purposes, but are extremely concerned when China asks for its own capabilities," said Dr Joss Wright, from the Oxford Internet Institute. "But what we don't
want to see is a world in which internet-based products and services are riddled with backdoors by every state that says it needs to act against terrorism.
"Backdoors are always a concern because they result in a system that is insecure by default, and which
can be exploited. That makes everyone less safe ."
China is proposing strict protectionist anti-terrorism bill
Leyden 15 Online Media The Register, Public Relations and Journalism. (Obama criticises China's mandatory backdoor tech import rules, John Leyden,
The Register UK, March 5, 2015, http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/03/05/obama_criticises_china_tech_rules_backdoor_terrorism/)//chiragjain
As previously reported, proposed
new regulations from the Chinese government would require technology firms to
create backdoors and provide source code to the Chinese government before technology sales within China would be
authorised. China is also asking that tech companies adopt Chinese encryption algorithms and disclose elements of their intellectual property. The new
requirements, laid out in a 22-page document approved late last year, are supposedly geared towards strengthening the cyber
security of critical Chinese industries and guarding against terrorism. In an interview with Reuters, Obama said Beijing's farreaching counter-terrorism law would require technology firms to hand over encryption keys as well as
installing "backdoors" into systems, thus granting Chinese authorities access in the process. "We have made it very clear that this is something they are
going to have to change if they are to do business with the United States," Obama said. "This is something that Ive raised directly with President Xi." The
proposed laws "would essentially force all foreign companies, including US companies, to turn over to the Chinese
government mechanisms where they can snoop and keep track of all the users of those services," Obama added. "As you might imagine, tech
companies are not going to be willing to do that, " he said. Aside from user privacy concerns, Western business groups such as the US
Chamber of Commerce have criticised China's policies as protectionist . The proposed rules extend the scope of recently
adopted financial industry regulations that effectively encouraged Chinese banks to buy from domestic technology vendors. The Chinese government is pushing
these anti-terrorism rules as vital in protecting state and business secrets. The disagreement marks another cyber security and technology policy difference
between US and China, with relations not yet healed from ongoing complaints about Chinese cyber espionage and the Snowden revelations. The Snowden
revelations have effectively prevented the US from taking the moral high ground on internet security and technology policy issues. For example, Chinese Foreign
Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying referred to the Gemalto hack in a press conference where she was asked about Obama's criticism of China proposed
laws. The legislation
is China's domestic affair, and we hope the US side can take a right, sober and objective view towards it. On the
information security issue, there are media revelations that a certain country embedded spying software in the computer
system of other country's SIM card maker for surveillance activities. This is only one out of the recently disclosed cases. All countries are paying close attention
to this and taking measures to safeguard their own information security The Chinese
domestic and foreign technology suppliers. However, US officials argue that the proposed law should be viewed in the context of new
banking rules and anti-trust investigations as a raft of measures that make it difficult for foreign technology suppliers to sell into the world's second biggest
economy. Obama told Reuters: "Those
kinds of restrictive practices I think would ironically hurt the Chinese economy
over the long term because I dont think there is any US or European firm, any international firm, that could
credibly get away with that wholesale turning over of data, personal data, over to a government." Privacy advocates point out
that what China is requesting is akin to what the US demands of foreign telcos. Groups like the ACLU are, of course, fiercely opposed to government-mandated
backdoors. The failed Clipper Chip key escrow scheme of the 90s even provides a well-known historical precedent. Such key-escrow schemes introduce a
weakness that unintended parties (third party intel agencies, criminal hackers etc.) could exploit, technologies and privacy activists argue.
government has adopted new regulations requiring companies that sell computer
equipment to Chinese banks to turn over secret source code, submit to invasive audits and build socalled back doors into
hardware and software, according to a copy of the rules obtained by foreign technology companies that do billions of
dollars worth of business in China. The new rules, laid out in a 22page document approved at the end of last year, are the first in a series
of policies expected to be unveiled in the coming months that Beijing says are intended to strengthen
cybersecurity in critical Chinese industries . As copies have spread in the past month, the regulations have heightened concern among
foreign companies that the authorities are trying to force them out of one of the largest and fastestgrowing markets. In a letter sent Wednesday to a
toplevel Communist Party committee on cybersecurity, led by President Xi Jinping, foreign business groups objected
to the new policies and complained that they amounted to protectionism. The groups, which include the U.S. Chamber of
Commerce, called for urgent discussion and dialogue about what they said was a growing trend toward policies that cite cybersecurity in requiring companies
to use only technology products and services that are developed and controlled by Chinese companies. The letter is the latest
salvo in an
intensifying titfortat between China and the United States over online security and technology policy. While the United
States has accused Chinese military personnel of hacking and stealing from American companies, China has pointed to recent disclosures
of United States snooping in foreign countries as a reason to get rid of American technology as quickly as possible. Although it is unclear
to what extent the new rules result from security concerns, and to what extent they are cover for building up the Chinese tech industry, the Chinese regulations
go far beyond measures taken by most other countries, lending some credibility to industry claims that they are protectionist. Beijing also has long used the
Internet to keep tabs on its citizens and ensure the Communist Partys hold on power. Chinese
foreign companies
would be unwilling to disclose code because of concerns about intellectual property, security and, in some
cases, United States export law. The chart also calls for companies that want to sell to banks to set up research and development centers in
China, obtain permits for workers servicing technology equipment and build ports to allow Chinese officials to manage and monitor data processed by their
hardware. The draft antiterrorism law pushes even further, calling for companies to store all data related to Chinese users on servers in China, create methods
for monitoring content for terror threats and provide keys to encryption to public security authorities. Banking is the first industry where we are aware a blackandwhite regulatory document was issued, said Jeffrey Yao, a vice president for enterprise research at IDC. In some other industries, if you talk to the customers,
many of them get the pressure to adopt the local brands, but in most of the cases they are via internal communications from the top officers. Some
of
Americas largest tech companies could be hurt by the rules, including Apple, which is making a big push
into the country. Apple has used new encryption methods in the iPhone 6 that are based on a complicated
mathematical algorithm tied to a code unique to each phone. Apple says it has no access to the codes, but under the proposed
antiterrorism law, it would be required to provide a key so that the Chinese government could decrypt data stored on iPhones. A growing number of American
technology executives have complained about new barriers to access to the Chinese market. John T. Chambers, the chief executive of the network equipment
maker Cisco Systems, has raised the issue, as have executives at the chip maker Qualcomm. This week, Microsofts chief executive, Satya Nadella, said his
company was working through geopolitical issues regarding China. In the letter, the Western companies voiced concerns about a broader cybersecurity review
regime under which the Chinese government would assess the security and controllability of hardware, software and technology services sold in China,
through audits and other checks. More details about the checks will be sent in February to the Central Leading Group for Cyberspace Affairs, the committee led
by the Chinese president, according to a recent report by Xinhua, the staterun news agency. The committee, which was created after the disclosures by Mr.
Snowden, is leading the charge in consolidating and streamlining online security efforts in China. Analysts said it had most likely presided over or given tacit
support to the new policies. The leadership committee is said to be also trying to wean the country from its reliance on foreign technology, a longstanding goal
that has gained urgency after Mr. Snowdens revelations. Zuo Xiaodong, vice president of the China Information Security Research Institute, said the new
policies and the broader push for indigenous innovation were not intended to eliminate foreign companies from the market. Were under the yoke of others. If the
others stop services, what do we do? he said, noting that many Chinese companies and local governments had to scramble when Microsoft discontinued its
support of Windows XP. From a security perspective, that simply wasnt acceptable. Were breaking away from these types of circumstances." Even if Beijing
wants it to, the banking
industry cannot immediately do away with all foreign hardware makers, Mr. Yao of IDC
said. Banks purchase billions of dollars worth of hardware and software to manage transactions, and Chinese companies
cannot yet produce some of the higherend servers and mainframes they rely on. Mr. Yao said 90 percent of highend servers and
mainframes in China were still produced by multinationals. Still, Chinese companies are catching up at the lower end. For all
enterprise hardware, local brands represented 21.3 percent revenue share in 2010 in P.R.C. market and we expect in 2014 that number will reach 43.1 percent,
he said, using the abbreviation for the Peoples Republic of China. Thats a huge jump.
for years, according to Maloof's sources. This makes them very attractive since Western companies cannot compete with their
prices for domestic and international development projects.
DA CRIME
--xt uniqueness
Crime rates are low in the squo
Simpson 14 Covers Italian equities, focusing on Banks for Reuters. 30 year coverage specialist based in multiple cities and countries. ( Violent U.S.
crime drops again, reaches 1970s level: FBI, Ian Simpson, Reuters, November 10, 2014, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/10/us-usa-crime-fbiidUSKCN0IU1UM20141110)//chiragjain
U.S. violent crimes including murders fell 4.4 percent in 2013 to their lowest number since the 1970s,
continuing a decades-long downturn , the FBI said on Monday. The law enforcement agency's annual Crime in the United States report showed
the country had an estimated 1.16 million violent crimes last year, the lowest number since 1.09 million
were recorded in 1978. All types of violent crimes were lower, with murder and non-negligent manslaughter off
4.4 percent to 14,196, the lowest figure since 1968. Rape was down 6.3 percent and robbery fell 2.8 percent , the Federal
Bureau of Investigation data showed. James Alan Fox, a criminologist at Northeastern University in Boston, said there was a variety of factors
behind the decline in violent crime in recent decades, including the United States having the highest rate of
imprisonment in the world. He said an aging population and improved police tactics also played a role, along with the
increased use of security cameras and the pervasive use of phones to take videos. "It's hard for criminals to do anything
without being caught on video," Fox said. The violent crime rate last year was 367.9 for each 100,000 in population, down 5.1 percent from 2012. The rate has
fallen every year since at least 1994, the earliest year for readily accessible FBI data, and the 2013 figure was about half the 1994 rate. Property crimes fell 4.1
percent to an estimated 8.63 million last year, the 11th straight yearly decline. Losses from property crimes excluding arson were calculated at $16.6 billion, the
FBI said. In an analysis, the non-profit Pew Charitable Trusts said the drop in crime coincided with a decline in the prison population, with the number of U.S.
prisoners down 6 percent in 2013 from its peak in 2008. Thirty-two of the 50 states have seen a drop in crime rates as the rate of
imprisonment fell, Pew said. California notched the largest drop in imprisonment rate over the five-year period, at 15 percent, and crime was down 11 percent.
The state has been under court order to reduce prison overcrowding, and voters last week approved an
initiative that reduced sentences for some crimes.
--xt link
Crime rates will escalate without encryption backdoors criminals use encryption
Tucker and Gillum 14 Tucker: Covers Justice Department for Associated Press. Gillum: Reporter at the Associated Press. Been at USA TODAY.
Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism. BSc Santa Clara University Political Science. (FBI: cellphone encryption would impede criminal
investigations, Eric Tucker and Jack Gillum, Associated Press Public Broadcast Station, October 16, 2014, http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/fbicellphone-encryption-impede-criminal-investigations/)//chiragjain
WASHINGTON FBI
Director James Comey warned in stark terms Thursday against the push by technology
companies to encrypt smartphone data and operating systems, arguing that murder cases could be stalled,
suspects could walk free and justice could be thwarted by a locked phone or an encrypted hard drive. Privacy advocates
and technology experts called the concerns exaggerated and little more than recycled arguments the
government has raised against encryption since the early 1990s. Likening encrypted data to a safe that cannot be cracked or a closet door
that wont open, Comey said the move by tech companies to protect user communications in the name of privacy is
certain to impede a wide range of criminal investigations . New legislation to allow law enforcement to intercept communications is
needed at a time of advancing technology and new forms of communication, he said. We have the legal authority to intercept and
access communications from information pursuant to court order, but we often lack the technical ability to
do so, Comey said in a Brookings Institution speech. Comey cited particular cases in which he said access to cell phone data aided in a criminal
investigation. But in a question-and-answer session after the speech, he said he could not cite particular instances in which someone was rescued from danger
who wouldnt have been had law enforcement been blocked from that information. Logic tells me there are going to be cases like that, Comey said. The speech,
which echoes concerns he and others in law enforcement have previously made, comes soon after announcements by Apple and Google that their new
operating systems will be encrypted, or protected with coding by default. Law enforcement officials could still intercept conversations but might not be able to ac
cess call data, contacts, photos and email stored on the phone. While the companies actions are understandable, Comey said, the place they are leading us is
one we shouldnt go to without careful thought and debate. Encryption
acknowledged a rise in public mistrust of government in the year since former National
Security Agency systems analyst revealed NSA secret intelligence collection programs. But he said the public was
wrong to believe that law enforcement can access any and all communications with the flip of a switch. It may be true in the movies or on TV. It is simply not the
case in real life, he said. Comey also said the FBI
under strict oversight, to intercepting communications. Privacy advocates have long been concerned that that intercept would create an opening for
hackers to exploit. The American Civil Liberties Union said federal law protects the right of companies to add encryption with no
backdoors and that the companies should be credited for being unwilling to weaken security for everyone. Whether you call it a front door or a back
door, weakening the security of a system to enable law enforcement access also opens that door to foreign
governments and criminals, said Christopher Soghoian, principal technologist with the ACLUs Speech, Privacy and Technology Project. Matthew
Green, a cryptology professor at Johns Hopkins University, said the debate over personal encryption isnt new: Back in the 1990s, when personal computers
were a novelty, he said most consumers werent even aware of encryption. When
the
key advantage that criminals have over law enforcement . Law enforcement and the intelligence community are
seeking to limit the strength of encryption keys, noting that encryption slows their investigation and could become
unbreakable , thus allowing criminals and others to communication without fear of law enforcement listening in. Privacy
advocates, on the other hand, support the need to ensure 14 private, legitimate communications and thus argue against limiting
the strength of encryption technologies or providing law enforcement with keys that would allow them access to encrypted
panelists , therefore, examined the merits of these arguments in the context of transnational crime and
corruption. The first speaker, Dr. Dorothy Denning, addressed how national organized criminals use encryption and associated
technologies . Encryption, according Dr. Denning, is being used in many different contexts , various forms of communications,
as well as in the storage of data. The evidence for the use and effects of encryption are currently anecdotal. New guidelines on reporting the results
communications. The
from wiretaps and the instances where encryption frustrates those wiretaps offer some hope for better data in the future. Turning to criminal activities,
encryption is used in many different types of crimes, ranging from terrorism to narcotics trafficking and other forms of
organized crime . One illustration involved a university professor who allegedly engaged in child pornography and the campus police could not do anything
with the files on his computer due to strong encryption. Thus, how does one approach cases that involve encryption? Breaking the method of
cryptography or getting the key solves many such cases . Since a password often protects the encryption key itself, investigations often
focus on acquiring the password and, in turn, the key to decoding the encryption. In many cases, the cryptography is broken not because
the algorithms werent of sufficient quality or the keys werent long enough, but due to the overall weakness of products and the ability of
brute force techniques to overcome the encryption particularly true of most commercial software products until recently. But encryption is not the
only issue in this context. Steganography, for example, is related to and yet different from encryption in that encryption is extremely recognizableone can
With steganography, one can hide files not only in images, but also in sound files,
video, text, or even in unused space in a disk . Thus, you can use encryption with steganography for added protection
and deception. Another issue is anonymity, where all kinds of services and tools exist to provide anonymous
communications. Anonymous remailers, for instance, work with electronic mail to shield the source of electronic
communications. Finally, the use of hacker tools, especially those designed to cover the tracks of email and to intercept passwords of user accounts, is a
topic that one must consider when examining the use of encryption for illicit gains. The next speaker, Jay Wack, sought to provide the private sectors point of
view in the debate between privacy advocates and law enforcement in the encryption field. Focusing on the positive uses for encryption and the fact that privacy
components require addressing, it is useful to liken the debate to a scale. On one side is
contend with
The continued growth of the Internet and, especially, the connections between massive
have led some industry captains to note that era of privacy is over . Hence, when we speak of e-
policies on encryption
will impact the debate we are outlining today. The US has laws pushing and/or forcing us into the electronic
environment. For example, Medicaid is a paper-based system that takes 65 days to process, and thus we would like to move to an electronic mechanism
Thus, we now must concern ourselves with the fact that we share the Internet with many nationalities simultaneously, and their
that takes moments to process. An inherent element of the paper process is its privacy, with it the fact that the paper is folded up, put in an envelope, moved
through the mail system. It is confidential in that the envelope prevents others from seeing the contents; and many laws protect the privacy of peoples mail. The
problem in moving to an electronic schema is that the medical community now has to provide a similar state of confidentiality as the envelope. Compounding this
challenge is to ensure privacy in such a way that the information moves across the network and to make sure that a signature is applied in such a way that the
persons actual identity is confirmed. Thus, a conclusion drawn from the engines described above is that one has to have the means of protecting his or her
Internet. In order to accomplish this, one has to have a secure platform and a secure authentication. It starts with who am I? For example, Bruce Snyder recently
wrote an article on the issue of the electronic signature law passed in January 2000. Citing defects in the system, one of the solutions he suggested to strengthen
security systems was that they should have a hardware device, and
lead to theft
and abuse. Another solution to ensure privacy is that smart cards be used to harmonize information systems and hardware. In the end, there
are solutions available that accommodate the conflicting personal, organizational, and law enforcement interests with regard to encryption. Confidentiality should
be under the control of the individual. The concluding speaker on the panel, Jim Kerins, sought to outline the effects, positive and negative, of regulating the
production and use of encryption tools and began by reminding the audience of some of the more relevant statistics from earlier in the day. First, that the US is
no longer the dominant population on the Internet in terms of access or e-commerce. Next, regardless of whether commerce is business-to-business, business to
consumer or consumer to government, there is a virtual environment that provides anonymity in commercial dealings that fraudsters have taken full advantage
of. Thus, analysis of fraud is very useful in understanding the need to understand the crucial elements of the privacy debate. Looking to the dark side of the
Internet, it is clear that fraudsters like the Internet. First, it allows them to be more efficient and effective in what they do and creates difficulties for law
enforcement in tracing transactions back to specific machines or addresses. Second, there has been a transposition of trust from the real world into the Internet
world from consumers. In real terms, this amounts to companies losing 20 to 30 percent to fraudnumbers that can spell the end to companies given the tight
margins in e-commerce. One recent statistic noted that fraud on the Internet represents 1.4 billion USD, or 11 percent of all e-commerce transactions. Thus, the
most important engine to e-commerce fraud is that when you move from the real world to the virtual world, you can assume another identity that suits the
fraudsters.
--xt impact
TOC hurts U.S. economy, competitiveness, and increases corruption in weak countries - $1 trillion
every year
NSC 11 National Security Council. (Strategy to Combat Transnational Organized Crime: Addressing Converging Threats to National Security, National
Security Council, July 25, 2011, https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/nsc/transnational-crime)//chiragjain
Transnational organized crime (TOC) poses a significant and growing threat to national and international
security, with dire implications for public safety, public health, democratic institutions, and economic stability
across the globe. Not only are criminal networks expanding, but they also are diversifying their activities, resulting in the convergence of threats that
were once distinct and today have explosive and destabilizing effects. This Strategy organizes the United States to combat TOC networks that pose a strategic
law enforcement, foreign intelligence, and security agencies. TOC penetration of governments is exacerbating corruption and undermining governance, rule of
law, judicial systems, free press, democratic institution-building, and transparency. Further, events in Somalia have shown how criminal control of territory and
piracy ransoms generate significant sums of illicit revenue and promote the spread of government instability. Threats
Expansion of Drug Trafficking. Despite demonstrable counterdrug successes in recent years, particu larly against the cocaine
trade, illicit drugs remain a serious threat to the health, safety, security, and financial well-being of Americans. The demand for illicit drugs, both in the
United States and abroad, fuels the power, impunity, and violence of criminal organizations around the globe. Mexican DTOs are escalating their violence to
consolidate their market share within the Western Hemisphere, protect their operations in Mexico, and expand their reach into the United States. In West
Africa, Latin American cartels are exploiting local criminal organizations to move cocaine to Western Europe and the Middle East.
There have also been instances of Afghan DTOs operating with those in West Africa to smuggle heroin to Europe and the United States. Many of the wellestablished organized criminal groups that had not been involved in drug traffickingincluding those in Russia, China, Italy, and
the Balkansare now establishing ties to drug producers to develop their own distribution networks and markets. The expansion of
drug trafficking is often accompanied by dramatic increases in local crime and corruption, as the United Nations has detected in regions such as West Africa and
Central America. Human Smuggling. Human smuggling is the facilitation, transportation, attempted transportation, or illegal entry of
a person or persons across an international border, in violation of one or more coun tries laws, either clandestinely or through
deception, whether with the use of fraudulent documents or through the evasion of legitimate border controls. It is a criminal commercial transaction between
willing parties who go their separate ways once they have procured illegal entry into a country. The vast majority of people who are assisted in illegally entering
the United States and other countries are smuggled, rather than trafficked. International human smuggling networks are linked to other trans national crimes including drug trafficking and the corruption of government officials. They can move criminals, fugitives, terrorists, and trafficking victims, as
well as economic migrants. They undermine the sovereignty of nations and often endanger the lives of those being smuggled. In its 2010 report
The Globalization of Crime: A Transnational Organized Crime Threat Assessment, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) estimated that the
smuggling of persons from Latin America to the United States generated approximately $6.6 billion annually in illicit proceeds for
human smuggling networks. Trafficking in Persons. Trafficking in Persons (TIP), or human trafficking, refers to activities involved when
one person obtains or holds another person in compelled service, such as involuntary servitude, slavery, debt bondage, and
forced labor. TIP specifically targets the trafficked person as an object of criminal exploitationoften for labor exploitation or sexual exploitation purposes
and trafficking victims are frequently physically and emotionally abused. Although TIP is generally thought of as an international crime that involves the
crossing of borders, TIP victims can also be trafficked within their own countries. Traffickers can move victims between locations within the same
country and often sell them to other trafficking organizations. Weapons Trafficking. Criminal networks and illicit arms dealers also play important roles in the black
markets from which terrorists and drug traffickers procure some of their weapons. As detailed in the 2010 UNODC report The Globalization of Crime, The value
of the documented global authorized trade in firearms has been estimated at approximately $1.58 billion in 2006, with unrecorded but licit transactions making up
another $100 million or so. The most commonly cited estimate for the size of the illicit market is 10% - 20% of the licit market. According to the head of UNODC,
these illicit arms fuel the violence that undermines security, development and justice worldwide. U.S. Federal law enforcement agencies have intercepted large
numbers of weapons or related items being smuggled to China, Russia, Mexico, the Philippines, Somalia, Turkmenistan, and Yemen in the last year alone.
Intellectual Property Theft. TOC networks are engaged in the theft of critical U.S. intellectual property, including through intrusions into
corporate and proprietary computer networks. Theft of intellectual property ranges from movies , music, and video games to imitations of
popular and trusted brand names, to proprietary designs of high-tech devices and manufacturing processes. This intellectual property theft
causes significant business losses, erodes U.S. competitiveness in the world marketplace, and in many cases threatens public health
and safety. Between FY 2003 and FY 2010, the yearly domestic value of customs seizures at U.S. port and mail facilities related to intellectual property right
(IPR) violations leaped from $94 million to $188 million. Products originating in China accounted for 66% of these IPR seizures in FY 2010.
Cybercrime. TOC networks are increasingly involved in cybercrime, which costs consumers billions of dollars annually, threatens
sensitive corporate and government computer networks, and undermines worldwide confidence in the international financial system. Through
cybercrime, transnational criminal organizations pose a significant threat to financial and trust systems banking, stock markets, ecurrency, and value and credit card serviceson which the world economy depends. For example, some estimates indicate that online frauds
perpetrated by Central European cybercrime networks have defrauded U.S. citizens or entities of approximately $1 billion in a single year. According to the U.S.
Secret Service, which investigates cybercrimes through its 31 Electronic Crimes Task Forces, financial crimes facilitated by anonymous online criminal fora result
in billions of dollars in losses to the Nations financial infrastructure. The National Cyber Investigative Joint Task Force, led by the Federal Bureau of Investigation
(FBI), functions as a domestic focal point for 18 federal departments or agencies to coordinate, integrate, and share information related to cyber threat
investigations, as well as make the Internet safer by pursuing terrorists, spies, and criminals who seek to exploit U.S. systems. Pervasive criminal activity in
cyberspace not only directly affects its victims, but can imperil citizens and businesses faith in these digital systems, which are critical
to our society and economy. Computers and the Internet play a role in most transnational crimes today, either as the target or the weapon used in the
crime. The use of the Internet, personal computers, and mobile devices all create a trail of digital evidence. Often the proper investigation of this evidence trail
requires highly trained personnel. Crimes can occur more quickly, but investigations proceed more slowly due to the critical shortage of investigators with
the knowledge and expertise to analyze ever increasing amounts of potential digital evidence. The Critical Role of Facilitators. Connecting these converging
threats are facilitators, semi- legitimate players such as accountants, attorneys, notaries, bankers, and real estate brokers, who cross both the licit and illicit
worlds and provide services to legitimate customers, criminals, and terrorists alike. The range of licit-illicit relationships is broad. At one end, criminals draw on
the public reputations of licit actors to maintain facades of propriety for their operations. At the other end are specialists with skills or resources who have been
completely subsumed into the criminal networks. For example, TOC networks rely on industry experts, both witting and unwitting, to facilitate corrupt transactions
and to create the necessary infrastructure to pursue their illicit schemes, such as creating shell corporations, opening offshore bank accounts in the shell
corporations name, and creating front businesses for their illegal activity and money laundering. Business owners or bankers are enlisted to launder money, and
employees of legitimate companies are used to conceal smuggling operations. Human smugglers, human traffickers, arms traffickers, drug traffickers, terrorists,
and other criminals depend on secure transportation networks and safe locations from which to stage smuggling activity or to store bulk cash or narcotics for
transport. They also depend on fraudulently created or fraudulently obtained documents, such as passports and visas, to move themselves or their clients into
the United States and illegally reside here. Transnational criminal networks such as organized crime groups, drug traffickers, and weapons dealers at times share
convergence pointsplaces, businesses, or peopleto launder or convert their illicit profits into legitimate funds. Many of these disparate networks also appear
to use the same casinos, financial intermediaries, and front companies to plan arms and narcotics deals because they view them as safe intermediaries for doing
business. Cash-intensive and high-volume businesses such as casinos are especially attractive, particularly those in jurisdictions that lack the political will and
oversight to regulate casino operations or fail to perform due diligence on casino licensees. Illicit networks similarly abuse some of the same financial
intermediaries and front companies in regions where government or law enforcement corruption is prevalent, with officials receiving either revenues from the
criminal businesses or ownership stakes in the legitimate-appearing commercial entity.