MANPOWER INC.

EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK SURVEY

FIRST QUARTER 2002

EMPLOYERS SAY HIRING SLOWDOWN
TO CONTINUE INTO FIRST QUARTER
A continuing slowdown in hiring THE OUTLOOK BY INDUSTRY 1987-2002
activity is on the horizon for the
first quarter of the coming year. MINING CONSTRUCTION
50 50
Expectations lag considerably 40 40

below those of the year-earlier 30 30

20
20

period and those of three 10 10

0
months ago. While the pattern 0

-10 -10

of job growth continues to -20 -20

-30 -30
slide, the survey produced 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

no evidence that an end is in

MANUFACTURING - DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING - NON-DURABLE GOODS
sight. The results approximate 50 50

those of the recessionary years 40 40

30 30

of 1982 and 1991, when the 20 20

10 10
figures reached the lowest 0 0

levels in the survey’s 25-year -10 -10

-20 -20
history. The brunt of the -30 -30
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
employment decline is borne
by the manufacturing sectors, TRANSPORTATION & PUBLIC UTILITIES WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES
but weakness is clear in all 50 50
40 40
industries and all regions. 30 30

While staffing reduction is 20 20

10 10

anticipated in the first quarter 0 0

among Construction firms and -10

-20
-10

-20

in Wholesale & Retail Trades, -30

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
-30
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

the present levels exceed

seasonal trends. FINANCE, INSURANCE & REAL ESTATE EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE
50 50
40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10

-20 -20

-30 -30
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

SERVICES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

50 50
40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10

-20 -20

-30 -30
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED
 THE NATIONAL OUTLOOK 1987-2002
35

30

25

20

15

10

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

-5 NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

-10
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY
net % +/-
% % no % % don’t net % seasonally
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted

MINING 14 68 11 7 3 10

CONSTRUCTION 14 59 21 6 -7 10

MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 14 58 21 7 -7 -3

MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 15 63 15 7 0 3

TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 16 64 13 7 3 6

WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 15 57 22 6 -7 11

FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 17 67 10 6 7 8

EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 14 71 8 7 6 8

SERVICES 17 63 13 7 4 9

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 17 68 8 7 9 13

ALL INDUSTRIES 16 61 16 7 0 8

UNITED STATES
 THE NORTHEAST OUTLOOK 1987-2002
35

30

25

20

15

10

0
NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
-5 NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

-10
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY NORTHEAST

net % +/- Winter winds have chilled the employ-
% % no % % don’t net % seasonally
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted
ment outlook many times in the past,
MINING 0 75 0 25 0 -4 but it is a full decade since firms in the
region were as pessimistic. Plans of
CONSTRUCTION 9 63 22 6 -13 4
Durable Goods Manufacturers fall far
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 11 58 20 11 -9 -7 below drastically reduced seasonal
expectations to their lowest level in the
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 16 58 17 9 -1 2
history of the survey. However, those
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 15 63 14 8 1 4 of Non-Durable Goods Manufacturers
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 18 52 22 8 -4 13
represent a marginal improvement from
the dismal forecast of three months ago.
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 14 64 11 11 3 4 It is the only private sector industry to
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 10 76 5 9 5 10 gain ground from the previous quarter,
but Public Administration units report an
SERVICES 19 57 15 9 4 12
upward adjustment that is seasonally
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 16 69 8 7 8 9 expected. Finance, Insurance and
Real Estate sustained its weak fourth
ALL INDUSTRIES 15 59 17 9 -2 6
quarter level. A shortage still exists
among Education employers. The
CONNECTICUT
MAINE sector continues to be among the
MASSACHUSETTS most optimistic in the region.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
NEW JERSEY
NEW YORK
PENNSYLVANIA
RHODE ISLAND
VERMONT
 THE MIDWEST OUTLOOK 1987-2002
35

30

25

20

15

10

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

-5 NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

-10
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY MIDWEST

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
At the outset of the 1980s, the first quar-
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted ter Midwest outlook was negative for four
MINING 0 86 14 0 -14 3 consecutive years. Not since that siege
has any period been as bleak as the
CONSTRUCTION 12 63 22 3 -10 17
present. Even with the strong impact of
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 14 60 21 5 -7 -2 seasonal variation removed, nearly all
industries report plans appreciably
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 16 62 15 7 1 4
below those of last quarter or last year.
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 14 68 14 4 0 2 Significant hiring activity in the private
sector is concentrated in Finance,
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 13 60 24 3 -11 14
Insurance & Real Estate and Services.
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 18 67 11 4 7 7 The positive progress of Public
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 8 80 8 4 0 3 Administration is below seasonal expec-
tations, but the Construction industry
SERVICES 17 67 12 4 5 10
and Wholesale & Retail Trades, where
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 14 74 8 4 6 12 first quarter slowdowns are traditional,
conform more closely to seasonal pat-
ALL INDUSTRIES 15 64 17 4 -2 7
terns established over the past year.
ILLINOIS Manufacturers — both Durable and
INDIANA Non-Durable — express their weakest
IOWA demand for additional workers since
KANSAS
MICHIGAN the disastrous 1982-83 period.
MINNESOTA
MISSOURI
NEBRASKA
NORTH DAKOTA
OHIO
SOUTH DAKOTA
WISCONSIN
 THE SOUTHERN OUTLOOK 1987-2002
35

30

25

20

15

10

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

-5 NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

-10
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY SOUTH

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
Never in the survey’s history has any
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted quarter carried as bleak an outlook.
MINING 19 69 12 0 7 15 A four-year hiring bubble among Public
Administration units finally burst last
CONSTRUCTION 15 61 18 6 -3 6
quarter. While further slippage has
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 17 57 20 6 -3 1 occurred, government units remain the
most active employers in the region.
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 14 66 14 6 0 2
Only once before in the survey’s history
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 14 66 13 7 1 4 have Durable Goods Manufacturers
recorded a negative forecast. Non-
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 14 62 19 5 -5 11
Durable Goods Manufacturers, now at
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 16 69 9 6 7 9 a neutral zero level, have never been
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 16 69 9 6 7 9 negative. Positive results were obtained
in Finance, Insurance & Real Estate and
SERVICES 16 65 13 6 3 5
Education, but prospects for the former
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 16 69 7 8 9 12 have been equal or better for 38 consec-
utive quarters and for the latter for 25
ALL INDUSTRIES 15 64 15 6 0 6
quarters. Wholesale & Retail Trades,
ALABAMA MARYLAND where the need for workers seemed
ARKANSAS MISSISSIPPI insatiable not long ago, will be shedding
DELAWARE NORTH CAROLINA holiday workers to a degree unseen in
DISTRICT OKLAHOMA
OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA the past decade.
FLORIDA TENNESSEE
GEORGIA TEXAS
KENTUCKY VIRGINIA
LOUISIANA WEST VIRGINIA
 THE WESTERN OUTLOOK 1987-2002
35

30

25

20

15

10

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

-5 NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

-10
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY WEST

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
For most of the past two and one-half
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted years, no region has expressed brighter
MINING 6 55 11 28 -5 0 prospects than the West. While that still
obtains, aggressiveness is totally absent.
CONSTRUCTION 18 48 25 9 -7 9
Beyond the Public Administration and
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 16 52 22 10 -6 -4 Education fields that dominate throughout
the country, only Finance, Insurance &
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 14 56 18 12 -4 1
Real Estate and Transportation & Public
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 22 55 13 10 9 13 Utilities show any propensity for further
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 19 46 25 10 -6 8
staffing. What had been a brisk hiring
pace among Durable Goods Manufac-
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 20 62 12 6 8 11 turers suddenly collapsed into a steady
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 25 57 7 11 18 21 decline six months ago. Non-Durable
Goods Manufacturers followed three
SERVICES 18 53 15 14 3 7
months later. Second-half staffing for
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 23 61 9 7 14 20 the holiday season among Wholesale &
Retail Trades had been stronger for
ALL INDUSTRIES 18 53 18 11 0 7
seven years than that recorded in late
2001, reflecting a weakness that now
ALASKA
ARIZONA turns firmly negative for the first time
CALIFORNIA since 1994. A somewhat similar pattern
COLORADO
HAWAII exists among Services firms, where
IDAHO quarter-on-quarter results have declined
MONTANA since the early part of last year.
NEVADA
NEW MEXICO
OREGON
UTAH
WASHINGTON
WYOMING
INTERNATIONAL HEADQUARTERS
5301 North Ironwood Road
Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53217

www.us.manpower.com

The quarterly Employment Outlook

Survey has been conducted as a
public service of Manpower Inc. for
25 years. The survey was designed
and is administered by Manpower’s
Market Research and Analysis
Department, utilizing a statistically
representative sample of nearly 16,000
public and private employers from
among ten industrial sectors in 482
U.S. markets.
The first quarter 2002 survey
is a measurement of employment
plans for the permanent workforce.
The survey results reflect the intentions
of the sample employers interviewed.
Some of these intentions may change
unexpectedly upon the conclusion of
this survey.