MANPOWER INC.

EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK SURVEY

SECOND QUARTER 2002

EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK IMPROVES
SLIGHTLY FOR SECOND QUARTER
A slight improvement in hiring THE OUTLOOK BY INDUSTRY 1987-2002
activity is expected heading into
the spring months. While a MINING CONSTRUCTION
welcome sign, the change is
not sufficient enough to indicate
a recovery in the employment
sector is imminent. On a
seasonally adjusted basis,
Durable and Non-Durable
Goods Manufacturing show the
MANUFACTURING - DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING - NON-DURABLE GOODS
best gains from three months
ago, with projected results
modestly ahead of the
depressed levels evident in
the past several quarters.
Across all industries, six of 10
surveyed anticipate slight
improvement or stable activity TRANSPORTATION & PUBLIC UTILITIES WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES
in contrast to three months ago.
Sectors where weakness
persists include Transportation
& Public Utilities, Education and
Public Administration. With the
exception of the Northeast,
which will maintain a steady
hiring pace, the Midwest, South FINANCE, INSURANCE & REAL ESTATE EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE
and West all report a pick-up in
employment potential for the
coming months.

SERVICES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED
THE NATIONAL OUTLOOK 1987-2002

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY
net % +/-
% % no % % don’t net % seasonally
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted

MINING 16 71 11 2 5 5

CONSTRUCTION 30 56 9 5 21 11

MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 20 60 14 6 6 2

MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 19 66 9 6 10 8

TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 16 69 9 6 7 5

WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 23 61 10 6 13 12

FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 18 69 8 5 10 8

EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 12 75 9 4 3 6

SERVICES 22 63 8 7 14 10

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 19 69 8 4 11 7

ALL INDUSTRIES 21 63 10 6 11 9

UNITED STATES
THE NORTHEAST OUTLOOK 1987-2002

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY NORTHEAST

net % +/- While spring holds a degree of warmth
% % no % % don’t net % seasonally
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted for other regions, the Northeast is the
MINING 25 50 25 0 0 1 least anxious to emerge from the dol-
drums of economy and weather. Mostly
CONSTRUCTION 25 60 10 5 15 9
seasonal shifts will impact this region
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 15 59 16 10 -1 -4 as it takes a last place finish for the
upcoming quarter. A few potentially
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 19 63 10 8 9 6
encouraging spots are worth noting.
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 15 70 9 6 6 4 The manufacturing sector, particularly
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 22 60 10 8 12 12
in the Non-Durable Goods arena, is
showing another quarter of improvement
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 19 63 11 7 8 4 from late last year, while the key Finance,
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 10 76 8 6 2 4 Insurance & Real Estate industry indicates
no sign of further deterioration. However,
SERVICES 20 65 6 9 14 9
government units continue to slide,
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 16 67 11 6 5 3 indicating little hope for the next three
months and the Education field projects
ALL INDUSTRIES 19 63 10 8 9 6
the weakest second quarter hiring plans
in six years. Among the industry leaders
CONNECTICUT
MAINE for the spring months are Construction,
MASSACHUSETTS as anticipated, as well as Services, the
NEW HAMPSHIRE latter forecasting a weaker than expected
NEW JERSEY
NEW YORK seasonal outlook.
PENNSYLVANIA
RHODE ISLAND
VERMONT
THE MIDWEST OUTLOOK 1987-2002

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY MIDWEST

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
As one of the regional leaders, the
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted Midwest seeks to regain solid footing
MINING 14 86 0 0 14 7 after having withstood its most pes-
simistic outlook in twenty years last
CONSTRUCTION 33 57 7 3 26 4
quarter. Particularly heartening is the
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 21 64 12 3 9 4 Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
sector which matches the Western
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 19 69 7 5 12 11
region in hiring strength. Construction
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 17 70 8 5 9 5 in its springtime leadership role is not a
surprise, but clearly lacks the optimism
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 24 62 10 4 14 11
of the typical outlook for this time of year.
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 18 72 7 3 11 9 Also of positive note are Wholesale &
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 11 74 12 3 -1 3 Retail Trades and Services. Struggling
to recover from a hiring dearth that has
SERVICES 23 66 8 3 15 11
persisted for the past year, Education
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 20 68 8 4 12 3 still shows no signs of a turnaround.
The Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
ALL INDUSTRIES 22 65 9 4 13 9
industry, however, appears to be
ILLINOIS rebounding in the short term and
INDIANA approaching levels normally seen at
IOWA this time of year.
KANSAS
MICHIGAN
MINNESOTA
MISSOURI
NEBRASKA
NORTH DAKOTA
OHIO
SOUTH DAKOTA
WISCONSIN
THE SOUTHERN OUTLOOK 1987-2002

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY SOUTH

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
Although the Southern region has less
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted concern about weather-related seasonal
MINING 11 74 13 2 -2 -3 shifts, it has shared equally with other
parts of the country in the impact of the
CONSTRUCTION 32 56 8 4 24 17
recession on employment levels. The
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 22 58 14 6 8 4 negative outlooks seen in other regions
have never quite reached the South,
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 17 68 10 5 7 5
but last quarter’s zero net gain in hiring
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 17 70 9 4 8 6 strength was only a notch away.
Therefore, the findings projected for
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 21 64 11 4 10 9
the upcoming quarter, while below the
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 16 74 7 3 9 8 national average and normal seasonal
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 12 79 5 4 7 10 patterns, are a hopeful sign for the region.
Services, one of the area’s most positive
SERVICES 22 65 8 5 14 10
sectors, exhibits a stronger resilience
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 19 73 6 2 13 10 than might be expected, while Education
repeats the weak prospects seen three
ALL INDUSTRIES 20 65 10 5 10 8
months ago. Some signs of life are
ALABAMA MARYLAND evident in Durable and Non-Durable
ARKANSAS MISSISSIPPI Goods Manufacturing as well as the
DELAWARE NORTH CAROLINA Transportation & Public Utilities industry.
DISTRICT OKLAHOMA
OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
FLORIDA TENNESSEE
GEORGIA TEXAS
KENTUCKY VIRGINIA
LOUISIANA WEST VIRGINIA
THE WESTERN OUTLOOK 1987-2002

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY WEST

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally The West, second runner-up among
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted regions overall, is clearly the leader of
MINING 28 60 6 6 22 24 Services jobs in the upcoming quarter.
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
CONSTRUCTION 28 52 11 9 17 12
projects a healthy jump in hiring activity
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 19 52 17 12 2 -3 after two disappointing quarters.
Wholesale & Retail Trades, with one
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 20 59 8 13 12 11
of the most negative outlooks last
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 16 58 13 13 3 6 quarter even by seasonal standards,
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 25 54 11 10 14 14
has taken a welcome leap ahead that
now moves it to a position of strength
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 21 58 9 12 12 10 among other business sectors. However,
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 16 66 14 4 2 1 the Education field, which appeared to
be recovering from a lapse three quarters
SERVICES 23 57 7 13 16 14
ago, has dropped to its lowest level of
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 23 61 9 7 14 9 hiring since 1994. A similar situation
exists in Transportation & Public Utilities,
ALL INDUSTRIES 22 57 10 11 12 10
which has precipitously declined for
the second consecutive period, while
ALASKA
ARIZONA Public Administration failed to post an
CALIFORNIA anticipated increase for the season.
COLORADO
HAWAII
IDAHO
MONTANA
NEVADA
NEW MEXICO
OREGON
UTAH
WASHINGTON
WYOMING
INTERNATIONAL HEADQUARTERS
5301 North Ironwood Road
Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53217

www.us.manpower.com

The quarterly Employment Outlook

Survey has been conducted as a
public service of Manpower Inc. for
26 years. The survey was designed
and is administered by Manpower’s
Market Research and Analysis
Department, utilizing a statistically
representative sample of nearly 16,000
public and private employers from
among ten industrial sectors in 478
U.S. markets.
The second quarter 2002 survey
is a measurement of employment
plans for the permanent workforce.
The survey results reflect the intentions
of the sample employers interviewed.
Some of these intentions may change
unexpectedly upon the conclusion of
this survey.

©Copyright. Manpower Inc. 2002. All rights reserved.