& :

Economic Research & Investment Strategy

Lekkosi@piraeusbank.gr

Staggelir@piraeusbank.gr
Aggelopouloua@piraeusbank.gr

2016

 & :
- - ,

.




.


, -,
.


- -
-
- .

 & :

. -


.
- 10% ( 1,2 .,
1997-2008) :

7,7 .
( & ) 8,1 .
1,8%.
2,0 .
4,3 .

 & :

,
(I/Y) ,

.
2,2%, :

2020 / 23,4% 11,6% 2015,

24,6% 2007.
2016-2020 201 . 40 . 30 .
2009-2015.
5 ,
,
760 . 2020.
2021-2030, 185 .
528 . (53 . ) , 343 . .

: , &


1995-2004
, ,
.
2007
61,6 . 24,6% . 2008
2015 21,4 ..
50%.

( 2010, . )

: AMECO, , Piraeus Bank Research

( 2010)

H 1995-2007
,
.

()
spread .

( %


,
2010)

: , , AMECO, Piraeus Bank Research

&

(%)

,
3 .

40% 1996 6,6% 2015.

,
(

)
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
-10.0

30000

2008 -2015:
-93%

., . . &

: , AMECO, Piraeus Bank Research

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1997

10000

1996

-20.0
-30.0
-40.0
-50.0
-60.0

20000

2015

40000

2014

50000

2013

60000

2012

70000

2011

(

, . )

 ,
(K) (I)
() :

K t = K t -1 + It - d K t
2011
.

,
&

( 2010, . )
1000
900

80
60

800
700

40

600
500

20
0

400
300

-20

200
100

-60

1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015

-40

. ,LHS
( ), LHS
,RHS

: , AMECO, Piraeus Bank Research

10

: , &

11

- : T

,
:
1)

2)

3)

12

- :

- :
- =
()
()

,
(crowds - in) (crowds - out)
.

,
,
.

13

- :
- 1995
2003 ,
42% .
,
2007-2008 . ,
60%
.

- (

)
( . ) & (%


)

30000

70 50.0

25000

60 40.0

: , Piraeus Bank Research

% , RHS

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

. , LHS

-30.0
2004

-20.0
2003

10

-10.0

2002

5000

0.0

2001

20

2000

10000

10.0

1999

30

1998

15000

20.0

1997

40

30.0

1996

50

20000

. .

14

- (GFCF_EXCLHGG)
:
i. ,

(BL_FLOWS).
ii. , (
& ) (EXCESS_DEMND).
iii. ,
,
(IR_R_BUS).
iv. ,
(PIP).
v.
(Business Climate Stability Index), (BCSI).

15

1 :

( ),
( ).

(

, . )

( . )

300,000

8,000

250,000

6,000

200,000

4,000

150,000
2,000

100,000
0

50,000

-2,000

. , ,
.

: , Piraeus Bank Research

-4,000
Q1 '99
Q4 '99
Q3 '00
Q2 '01
Q1 '02
Q4 '02
Q3 '03
Q2 '04
Q1 '05
Q4 '05
Q3 '06
Q2 '07
Q1 '08
Q4 '08
Q3 '09
Q2 '10
Q1 '11
Q4 '11
Q3 '12
Q2 '13
Q1 '14
Q4 '14
Q3 '15

Q1 '99
Q4 '99
Q3 '00
Q2 '01
Q1 '02
Q4 '02
Q3 '03
Q2 '04
Q1 '05
Q4 '05
Q3 '06
Q2 '07
Q1 '08
Q4 '08
Q3 '09
Q2 '10
Q1 '11
Q4 '11
Q3 '12
Q2 '13
Q1 '14
Q4 '14
Q3 '15

16

2 :


.
,
, ( ) .
. ,

.

( . )

(HP- filter,
, . )

300,000

5,000
4,000

250,000

3,000
200,000

2,000

150,000

1,000
0

100,000

-1,000
-2,000

50,000

1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

: , Piraeus Bank Research

Q1 '95
Q1 '96
Q1 '97
Q1 '98
Q1 '99
Q1 '00
Q1 '01
Q1 '02
Q1 '03
Q1 '04
Q1 '05
Q1 '06
Q1 '07
Q1 '08
Q1 '09
Q1 '10
Q1 '11
Q1 '12
Q1 '13
Q1 '14
Q1 '15

-3,000

( )

17

3 :

,
.

,
.

( %
) &
(CPI)

(%)

30

14.0

5.0

25

12.0

4.0

20

10.0

3.0

15

8.0

2.0

10

6.0

1.0

4.0

0.0

2.0

-1.0

-5

0.0

-2.0

-10

-2.0

-3.0

-15

: , , Piraeus Bank Research

Q1 '99
Q4 '99
Q3 '00
Q2 '01
Q1 '02
Q4 '02
Q3 '03
Q2 '04
Q1 '05
Q4 '05
Q3 '06
Q2 '07
Q1 '08
Q4 '08
Q3 '09
Q2 '10
Q1 '11
Q4 '11
Q3 '12
Q2 '13
Q1 '14
Q4 '14
Q3 '15

6.0

Q1 '99
Q4 '99
Q3 '00
Q2 '01
Q1 '02
Q4 '02
Q3 '03
Q2 '04
Q1 '05
Q4 '05
Q3 '06
Q2 '07
Q1 '08
Q4 '08
Q3 '09
Q2 '10
Q1 '11
Q4 '11
Q3 '12
Q2 '13
Q1 '14
Q4 '14
Q3 '15

16.0

, LHS

, RHS

18

4 :


. ,
.
, -
.

(4Q Moving Sum)
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000

Q1/99
Q4/99
Q3/00
Q2/01
Q1/02
Q4/02
Q3/03
Q2/04
Q1/05
Q4/05
Q3/06
Q2/07
Q1/08
Q4/08
Q3/09
Q2/10
Q1/11
Q4/11
Q3/12
Q2/13
Q1/14
Q4/14
Q3/15

: , Piraeus Bank Research

19

5 : (BCSI)

.

:

3 (
, ,
).

( ) ( )
.

20

5 : BCSI
:

:
(b)
(Fb)

:
(k)
(Fk)

:
(L)
(FL)

:
()
(FY)

Y=

W (E
i

i = b ,k ,L ,Y

ma
i (t )

- Fima
)
(t -3)

ma: 3 month moving average

Wi:

21

5 : BCSI

BCSI
, 2 2015.

Business Climate Stability Index (BCSI)

12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0

1999-2015

: DG ECFIN, Piraeus Bank Research

Nov-15

Jan-15

Mar-14

May-13

Jul-12

Sep-11

Jan-10

Nov-10

Mar-09

Jul-07

May-08

Sep-06

Jan-05

Nov-05

Mar-04

Jul-02

May-03

Sep-01

Nov-00

Jan-00

0.0

BCSI

22


-
,
,
1,5 .

-
GFCF _ excHGGt = b1BL _ FLOWSt + b 2EXCESS _ DEMNDt -1 + b3IR _ R _ BUSt + b 4PIPt - 2 + b5BCSIt - 6 + e t

(standardized).
1999-2015.

, :
-
- .

.

23

(EXCESS_DEMND)

.

(PIP)

.

(BSCI)

.

24



-
2000 2015.

Q3-2004 Q3-2006
2004.

-
3
2
1
0

1.5
1.0

-1

0.5

-2

0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
00

01

02

03

04

05

06

Residual

07

08

09

Actual

: , , , AMECO, DG-ECFI, Piraeus Bank Research

10

11

12

13

14

15

Fitted

25

-
.

.

(beta)

t Statistic

BL_FLOWS

0.339

4.208*

EXCESS_DEMND (-1)

0.237

3.502*

IR_R_BUS

-0.509

-5.360*

PIP (-2)

0.232

3.156*

BCSI (-6)

-0.148

-2.205*

Adjusted R - squared

76.6%

* 5%, p-value<0.05

: , , , AMECO, DG-ECFI, Piraeus Bank Research

26

1,2 .,
2016 10%, 1997- 2008,
:
7,7 .
( & ) 8,1 .
1.8%.
2,0 .
4,3 .

27

 - 1,2 . .
: &
:

20

25

15

20

10
.

15
.

10

6.6

10.4

5
0

-5

-10

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

-5
-10

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Scenario 10%

10

Scenario 10%

BCSI

7
%

7.7 .

5.1

5
4

8.1 .

2
1

2.0 .

0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

-1.8 %

-4.3

Scenario 10%

12

9
8
8.4

0.9

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Scenario 10%

: 2010

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

10

Scenario 10%

BSCI:

: , , , AMECO, DG-ECFI, Piraeus Bank Research

28

 - Effectiveness Matrix

beta
. ()
()
().

Beta "A" / Beta "B"

A
BL_FLOWS
1.0

EXCESS_DEMND (-1)
0.7

IR_R_BUS
1.5

PIP (-2)
0.7

BCSI (-6)
0.4

EXCESS_DEMND (-1)

1.4

1.0

2.2

1.0

0.6

IR_R_BUS

0.7

0.5

1.0

0.5

0.3

PIP (-2)

1.5

1.0

2.2

1.0

0.6

BCSI (-6)

2.3

1.6

3.5

1.6

1.0

B
BL_FLOWS

,
,
.

: , , , AMECO, DG-ECFI, Piraeus Bank Research

29

: , &

30

t t-1 = It t
(I/Y) (steady
state) (g),
() (K/Y):

I
K
= (d + g )
Y
Y
:
(I): (GFCFcon) 2010
(Y): (GDPcon)
(g):
(): (Net Capital Stockcon) 2010
(): (Net Capital Stockcon)
(Fixed Capital Consumptioncon) 2010

Fenz et. al. (2015), Causes of declining investment activity in Austria. ONB, Quarterly review of economic policy Q3/15
Gros, D. (2014) Investment as the key to recovery in the euro area. CEPS Policy Brief No 326

31

 /:
, ,
(
) . :

i.
.
2000-2015 = 3,95%.

ii. ,
-
-
. /=3,8
3,8 .

( )

: AMECO, Piraeus Bank Research

( / )

32

 /
,
(g), , /
. - - , g=0 (
/=3,8 =3,95%) 15%.
, 3% 26,4% .
2,2% 2020 ,
23,4% , 11,6% 2015.

steady state &

3.6

5.5

22.7

Steady state

: AMECO, Piraeus Bank Research

2021

0
-1
-2

2020

0
-5
-10

2019

2
1

-3
-4
-5

-25
-3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

23.4

10
5

-15
-20

23.4

7
6
5
4
3

2018

7.4

13.1

21.4

14.3

2017

10

9.3

11.2

16.9

20.7

20
15

2016

15

15.0

18.8

22.7

2009-2015

20

22.6

28.3

2000-2008

25

24.5

26.4

35
30
25

1990-1999

30

30.2

1961-1989

Steady state

35

&
steady state

, LHS
Steady state , LHS
, RHS

33

 2020

:
2009-2015 ,
209 .
252 . 2015 815
. 871 . 2010.
2020 / 23,4% 11,6% 2015,
24,6% 2007.
2016-2020 201 . 40 . 30 .
2009-2015.
5 ,
,
760 . 2020.
2021-2030, 185 .
528 . (53 . ) , 343 . .

34

 2020

&
( . )

: AMECO, Piraeus Bank Research

35

Disclaimer: ( ),
, .
.
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, , ,
, .
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, , .
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.
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36