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Dedication
For your support, encouragement, love and patience: Diana, Eric, Alex you are
my luv-luvs.
For inspiration, my mother Constance Glickman who brought me up to believe
that writing was a noble pursuit, my uncle Dr. Lewis Glickman and my fatherin-law Dr. Paul Keat, all great authors who made me aspire to write this book.
To my father Paul and brother Jon, thanks for being there for me. Michael
Berman, Ken Freeling, Marc Grant, Barry Katz, Alan Silverstang, Bobby
Tarasowsky, Jon Warren, Paul Weinberg and Donna Zuccarini, thank you for
being there.
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The real estate and related construction industries employ over 7 million
workers and generate about 30% of our countrys GDP. The Real Estate
Roundtable, a major trade organization, publishes the following statistics that
speak to the depth and breadth of the US Real estate industry:
Exhibit 01.
Real Estate and the Economy:
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Limited Supply
According to the U.S. NAOA approximately 71% of the earths surface is
covered with water. Of the remaining 29%, much is inaccessible or undevelopable due to its topology or geography. Because of this, a limited quantity of
land is available for development to serve a growing population that needs to
exploit this land for living quarters, food and natural resources. The real
estate industry concerns how we utilize this limited resource for our collective
needs.
Inflation Protection
Real estate is typically rented to tenants for limited periods of time. At the
end of the specied period, the property is vacated and the owner looks for
another tenant to occupy the space. This new tenant will pay a rent in
keeping with the market at the time of lease. The same economic activity that
drives ination in the broad marketplace increases the demand for real estate
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and the rents that can be earned on a property. If prices of goods and services
are increasing, rents will likely rise as well and even after paying inated
property operating costs owners will be left with a rising residual. Given that
the cash ow from a real estate investment adjusts to mirror economic
activity, real estate is said to provide its investors with a hedge against
ination.
Housing Values
As many Americans were building investment in their homes, the price of
houses was also growing. As such, the American investment in home ownership became a critical store of value. In fact, the primary store of wealth for
most American families with incomes under $100,000 per year is the equity in
their home.
Wealth Effect
In a 1943 article the economist Arthur Pigou coined the phrase the Wealth
Effect, to measure the changes in consumption based on the change in the
values of housing and nancial assets. Stated simply, when asset values are
high consumers feel wealthy and go shopping: when asset values are low
consumers slow spending. As a result of the concentration of American
wealth in home equity, the level of housing prices can dramatically impact
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Employment in Homebuilding
In the post millennium decade, Americas population has been growing at
approximately 3 million people per year. Given our average family size of 2.5
people, these additional Americans required approximately 1.2 million
housing units per year of which more than two thirds or approximately
800,000 would typically reside in single family houses. To this requirement we
must add new houses to replace the approximately 300,000 obsolete or
destroyed houses per year. In years when the percentage of home ownership
was rising we also needed to house families that desired to switch from rental
units into single family houses.
Assuming that the existing housing stock was fully occupied and that housing
demand needed to be satised from new construction, the annual demand for
new single family housing exceeded 1.1 million per year. At an average price per
home that was greater than $200,000 for most of the decade, for years we
enjoyed a single family housing industry with minimum annual demand of
$220 billion.
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Notes
(1) References to construction contribution to GDP and employment include
activities not directly related to commercial real estate including
infrastructure and residential construction.
GLOSSARY
(See web for denitions)
Alternative investments
Asset class
Casualty
Commercial real estate
Contractor
Correlation
Counter cyclicality
Debt capital
Diversication
Economic multiplier
Financial Crisis
Gateway markets
Gross Domestic Product
Leverage
Mortgage backed securities
Multifamily housing
Owner occupied housing
Property lifecycle
Residential real estate
Residential Mortgage Backed Security
Single family housing
Supply chain
Underwrite
Wealth effect
THOUGHT QUESTIONS
a) Upon graduation you join the investment staff of Northern States Pension
Fund which invests the retirement funds of public employees in six states.
NSPF has previously invested only in publicly traded equity and debt
securities. It is now considering moving a portion of its capital into real
estate. Prepare a brief position paper on the pros and cons of investment in
real estate for consideration by the funds investment committee .
b) You are a real estate developer in Seattle in 1980. You are approached by
a group of young entrepreneurs looking to rent space for their new company.
They tell you that they have created a computer program that can change
the world. At the moment it only works on this new device called a PC which
you have never seen. They suggest that you lease them space at a below
market rent and take some stock in their newly formed company as an
incentive. Their CEO is pretty impressive but is only 25 years old and by the
way you have a mortgage to pay.What do you do?
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REVIEW QUESTIONS
1) Which of the following is not considered a type of commercial real estate?
a) Single family housing
b) Ofce buildings
c) Shopping Centers
d) Hotels
2) If one million homes are sold at a price of $300,000 per home and the
housing industry has an economic multiplier of 2.0x what is the total
economic impact of the housing industry?
a) $100 Million
b) $6.0 Billion
c) $600 Billion
d) $6.0 Trillion
3) Benets of investing in Real Estate include all of the following except:
a) Guaranteed cash ow
b) Income plus growth
c) Ination protection
d) Portfolio diversication
4) The Real Estate and Construction industries bring all of the following
benets to the US economy except:
a) Job creation for American workers
b) Stability for the economy
c) Modern infrastructure for industry
d) Store of value for investors
5) Which is not a benet of home ownership in the US?
a) Creation of wealth over long period of time
b) The right to vote in local and state elections
c) Access to government supported nancing program
d) Potential for capital appreciation
Edward A. Glickman
Adjunct Professor of Finance
Leonard N. Stern School of Business,
New York University
President
Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust