TABLE A.17.

EUROPE, 1998 REVISION

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision.

144

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

TABLE A.17 (continued)

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision.

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

145

TABLE A.18. EUROPE, REPLACEMENT MIGRATION SCENARIOS

EUROPE
Scenario
Period

I
Medium
variant

II
Medium
variant with
zero migration

III
Constant
total
population

IV
Constant
age group
15-64

V
Ratio 15-64/65+
not less than 3.0

VI
Constant ratio
15-64/65 years
or older

A. Average annual net migration (thousands)

1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
2040-2045
2045-2050
Grand total 1995-2050

950
757
535
458
377
305
265
265
265
265
265
23 530

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

854
1 063
1 046
1 150
1 478
1 879
2 199
2 371
2 519
2 665
2 803

0
0
293
3 642
4 696
4 847
4 316
3 511
3 489
3 530
3 945

0
0
0
0
0
0
15 049
11 725
8 922
6 020
5 293

5 844
12 410
1 868
17 234
24 901
29 817
30 837
30 110
34 504
38 863
50 841

100 137

161 346

235 044

1 386 151

727 912
723 482
717 671
713 122
725 305
742 496
759 766
773 668
783 008
791 587
799 739
809 399

727 912
723 434
717 649
711 623
704 731
695 760
684 189
749 368
802 725
844 398
871 749
894 776

727 912
753 810
814 445
824 271
913 174
1 046 692
1 212 912
1 392 793
1 576 523
1 789 486
2 032 569
2 346 459

487 110
492 142
492 555
492 555
492 555
492 555
492 555
492 555
492 555
492 555
492 555
492 555

487 110
492 222
492 680
491 630
478 105
459 554
438 988
474 437
504 056
526 638
542 098
556 871

487 110
513 673
561 570
572 861
628 831
712 731
818 857
935 364
1 056 366
1 196 976
1 358 048
1 564 343

B. Total population (thousands)

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

727 912
728 887
727 431
724 242
719 307
711 909
702 335
690 976
677 745
662 541
645 648
627 691

727 912
723 482
717 671
711 598
704 660
695 650
684 055
670 167
654 730
637 917
619 792
600 464

727 912
727 912
727 912
727 912
727 912
727 912
727 912
727 912
727 912
727 912
727 912
727 912

C. Age group 15-64 (thousands)

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

487 110
494 102
496 449
496 671
485 578
469 838
451 599
432 691
414 960
397 473
380 886
364 277

487 110
492 142
492 555
491 475
477 950
459 414
438 874
418 796
400 452
381 771
363 446
345 100

487 110
495 287
499 872
503 224
494 817
482 880
470 673
460 324
452 463
444 939
438 583
432 959

D. Potential support ratio 15-64/65 or older

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

146

4.81
4.60
4.29
4.24
3.89
3.47
3.06
2.73
2.50
2.34
2.21
2.11

4.81
4.65
4.35
4.30
3.92
3.46
3.03
2.70
2.47
2.30
2.16
2.04

4.81
4.67
4.40
4.38
4.03
3.60
3.20
2.90
2.71
2.56
2.46
2.38

4.81
4.65
4.35
4.31
4.02
3.66
3.33
3.08
2.92
2.81
2.72
2.62

4.81
4.66
4.36
4.31
3.93
3.47
3.03
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00

4.81
4.81
4.81
4.81
4.81
4.81
4.81
4.81
4.81
4.81
4.81
4.81

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

TABLE A.18 (continued)

EUROPE
Scenario

II
Medium
variant with
zero migration

Period

Medium
variant

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

101 338
107 439
115 588
117 185
124 910
135 491
147 524
158 482
165 668
170 119
172 046
172 985

101 338
105 831
113 249
114 231
121 798
132 589
144 774
155 357
162 033
166 178
168 008
168 986

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

13.9
14.7
15.9
16.2
17.4
19.0
21.0
22.9
24.4
25.7
26.6
27.6

13.9
14.6
15.8
16.1
17.3
19.1
21.2
23.2
24.7
26.1
27.1
28.1

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

139 464
127 346
115 394
110 386
108 819
106 579
103 212
99 803
97 117
94 948
92 717
90 430

139 464
125 509
111 867
105 892
104 911
103 647
100 408
96 015
92 245
89 968
88 338
86 378

III
Constant
total
population

IV
Constant
age group
15-64

V
Ratio 15-64/65+
not less than 3.0

VI
Constant ratio
15-64/65 years
or older

E. Age group 65 or older (thousands)

101 338
105 982
113 639
114 912
122 842
134 135
147 081
158 824
167 217
173 647
178 182
182 222

101 338
105 831
113 249
114 283
122 522
134 409
147 993
160 149
168 622
175 250
180 882
187 704

101 338
105 712
113 117
114 119
121 730
132 569
144 801
158 146
168 019
175 546
180 699
185 624

101 338
106 865
116 829
119 178
130 822
148 276
170 355
194 593
219 766
249 019
282 528
325 446

13.9
14.6
15.8
16.0
16.9
18.1
19.5
20.7
21.5
22.1
22.6
23.2

13.9
14.6
15.8
16.0
17.3
19.1
21.2
21.1
20.9
20.8
20.7
20.7

13.9
14.2
14.3
14.5
14.3
14.2
14.0
14.0
13.9
13.9
13.9
13.9

139 464
125 509
111 867
106 284
110 227
115 532
119 218
120 963
121 831
123 782
126 301
129 140

139 464
125 500
111 852
105 873
104 897
103 636
100 400
116 785
130 651
142 215
148 951
152 282

139 464
133 272
136 046
132 231
153 521
185 685
223 700
262 836
300 391
343 491
391 993
456 670

F. Percentage in age group 65 or older

13.9
14.6
15.6
15.8
16.9
18.4
20.2
21.8
23.0
23.9
24.5
25.0
G. Age group 0-14 (thousands)
139 464
126 643
114 402
109 776
110 254
110 897
110 158
108 765
108 233
109 326
111 147
112 731

H. Potential support ratio in 2050, by age of entry into non-working-age population

Age
65
70
75
80

2.11
3.13
4.88
8.36

2.04
3.04
4.77
8.18

2.38
3.53
5.53
9.52

2.62
3.93
6.15
10.52

3.00
4.38
6.75
11.49

4.81
7.36
11.94
21.44

NOTE: The six scenarios can be described briefly as follows:

I Corresponds to the medium variant of the official United Nations population projections (World Population Prospects, 1998 Revision).
II This scenario amends the medium variant by assuming no migration after 1995.
III This scenario keeps the total population figure constant at the highest level that it would reach in the absence of migration after 1995.
IV This scenario keeps the number of persons aged 15-64 constant at the highest level that it would reach in the absence of migration after 1995.
V This scenario prevents the ratio of persons aged 15-64 to persons aged 65 and above from falling below 3.0.
VI This scenario keeps the ratio of persons aged 15-64 and above at the highest level that it would reach in the absence of migration after 1995.
This scenario is considered to be demographically unrealistic.

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

147

148

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration