Philippine Equity Research

July 11, 2016

WEEKS HIGLIGHTS

Bullseye Report
Weekly Overview
Issue
Philippines
Peso-$
MSCI Phils
PLDT US
DJIA
SP500
Nasdaq
England
Nikkei
Hong Kong
China
US 30yr Bond
10-Yr Yield
Dollar Indx
Gold
Oil
CRB Index**

Prev Wk
7,830
46.915
39.4
44.8
17,949
2,103
4,863
6,578
15,682
20,794
2,932
173
14.56
95.72
1,344.90
49.28
194.26

Last Wk
7,772
47.125
39.17
44.31
18,147
2,130
4,957
6,591
15,107
20,564
2,988
173
13.66
96.33
1,367.40
45.12
187.17

Wk Chg Wk Chg %
(58.83)
(0.75)
0.210
0.45
(0.23)
(0.58)
(0.490)
(1.09)
197.37
1.10
26.95
1.28
94.19
1.94
12.81
0.19
(575.50)
(3.67)
(230.20)
(1.11)
55.61
1.90
0.00
0.00
(0.900)
(6.18)
0.61
0.64
22.50
1.67
(4.16)
(8.44)
(7.09)
(3.65)

YTD %
11.79
5.38
16.09
6.18
4.14
4.21
(1.01)
5.58
(20.63)
(6.16)
(15.57)
13.24
(39.80)
(2.45)
28.94
21.72
6.18

Authored by:
Juanis G. Barredo
VP; Chief Technical Analyst
COL Financial Group Inc.
(632) 636-5411
Juanis.barredo@colfinancial.com
Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates constitute the judgment of COLs Equity Research Dept as of
the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. The report is for informational
purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale of a security.

The Philippines PSEi corrected 58-pts for the week after its
channel highs did offer momentary profit taking
Average Daily Value Turnover decreased slightly to P8.9-B from
P9.2-B the week previous
Net foreign flows were again positive but lower at P2.9-B as
compared with P6.1-B the previous week
The PSEi (at 7,772) showed some corrective action after again
hitting the high bounds of its rising channel. But such corrections
seem temporary as no major support faults have been signalled to
offer greater warning other than its climbing closer to resistance.
We did note however some re-activation of movement in some offcenter stock picks (i.e. NOW, MRSGI, SSI, TECH) which could drive
rotation and weaken the index correlated ascent.
US markets did well after the Dow and SP500 broke free from their
consolidation bands with the Nasdaq moving to try to free itself
from its high band this week. This should inspire rally movements
from other markets. Europe was not as sturdy as only the FTSE
showing continuation up swings while the DAX and CAC shifted
down by more than 1.5% for the week. They did however show
some rally action as well on Friday (along with the US) after
retesting support. US Bond Yields proceed to stay weak insinuating
no expected interest rate hikes to come in July or September

Focus Items
Highlight
Philippines : Weekly Stats
Philippines : PSEi & Peso
Tech Map: Some key stocks and trend calls
US and Europe: In review
Asia: In review
Currencies & Commodities: In review

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2
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5
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Page 2

Philippines: Weekly Stats**

*Source: PSE
PER (Price/Earnings Ratio) data uses
four-quarter trailing financial data

12
10.06
(PHP Billions)
10
8
6.19
2016 Net Inflows of P32.83-B
6
4.494.84
4.4
4.31
2.92
2.58
4
2.2
1.99
1.91
1.16
1.05
0.921
2
0.492
0.44
0.353
0
-2 -0.867
-0.941 -1.09
-1.241
-1.58-1.3-1.33
-1.78-1.44
-4
-2.59
07/08/16

07/01/16

06/24/16

06/17/16

06/10/16

06/03/16

05/27/16

05/20/16

05/13/16

05/06/16

04/29/16

04/22/16

04/15/16

04/08/16

04/01/16

03/25/16

03/18/06

03/11/16

03/04/16

2/26/2016

2/19/2016

2/12/2016

2/5/2016

1/29/2016

1/22/2016

1/15/2016

1/8/2016

Net Foreign Flows

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Philippines: PSEi & Peso

Recommendation: Range trade watch resistance
Support: 7,622 7,488 / 7,117 Resistance: 7,950 8,130
The PSEi slid 58-pts for the week, reacting as resistance
pressures were felt at its channel high zone
Its weekly graph still shows a positive MACD enabling its
recovery swing but prices are closer to the high range of its
price channel and may continue to feel some pressure
A range trade of this channel persists the range seen sits
along 7,622 or 7,550 /7,950 or 8,130)
A hold is maintained given no selling trigger has yet been
seen; though given its proximity to range highs and a major
high, one must be ready for some profit taking action

Recommendation: Range trade Peso-Dollar

Support: 45.89 - 45.73 Resistance: 47.44 48.00
The Peso-$ (at P47.125) was slightly weaker and sits closer
to the higher end of its consolidation
The Php-$ has built a consolidation range between 45.89
and 47.44 / 48.00 and a range trade of this zone is upheld
The Dollar index however has taken in some recent strength
due to weakness into the Pound and Euro putting pressure
in some Asian currencies
A rally closer to resistance would be better zones to take
some profit on the P-$

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Some Key Stocks and Trend Calls

Tech Map
BLOOM
BPI
DMPL
EW
MBT
NOW
PGOLD
SSI
VLL

AC
ACR
AEV
ALI
AUB
BDO
BEL
CEB
CHIB
CNPF
DD
FDC
FGEN
GLO
GTCAP
JFC
MAXS
MCP
MEG
MPI
MRSGI
MWIDE
PLC
PNB
PNX
PX
RLC
ROCK
RRHI
SMC
SMPH
VITA

2GO
AGI
ANI
ANS
AP*
APC
AR
AT
BHI
CIC
COAL
COSCO
CPG
DAVIN
DIZ
DMC*
DNL^
EEI
EMP^
FED*
FLI
FNI
FOOD
FPH
GERI
HLCM
HOUSE
HVN
ICT
IMI
ION
IS
JGS

LC
LPZ
LTG^
MA
MER
MWC
NI^
NIKL^
OV
PHA
PSE^
PSPC
PXP^
RCB
RFM
SBS
SECB
SGI^
SM
STI
TAPET
TECH^
TEL
UBP
UNI
URC
X

Legend:
ABS
CAL
CROWN
EDC
ELI
LR
MARC
ORE
PIP
RWM
SCC
TA

Added: HVN

32 (+7)

60 (-2)

Up trends:
These issues show continuing if not strong up trends. Look for trading
buys now if risk-reward measures are appealing or if not, buy into
slight dips.

PCOR

Up trends needy of reactions or are reacting:

These issues show continuing up trends but are showing some
reactive adjustments due to profit taking. Look for pullbacks to short
term support or a rally from such support to cast fresh buy trades.
Consolidations (Sideward trends):
These issues are running through consolidation phases. Either wait
for key range breaks or range trade and buy into a support bounce.
Keep watch of possible range break bias in the following direction
[~-up/down, ^-up, *-down).
Down trends needy of rallies or are rallying:
These issues show continuing down trends but are undergoing a
temporary/oversold rally. Lighten or sell into rebounds to resistance
for now.

Down trends:
These issues show continuing down trends. Stay out for now until
better demand patterns appear.

Stock Code Color Guide:

GREEN
RED

Total Issues (change from last report)

9 (-1)

(Note: Trends are cast in the short term)

12 (0)

1 (-3)

BLACK

-These issues improved their technical condition for the week

(moving to the left of their column category on the Tech Map)
-These issues deteriorated on their technical condition for the week
(moving to the right of their column category on the Tech Map)
-These issues carried the same technical condition for the week
(standing on the same column category on the Tech Map)

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US and European Markets

* Simple Moving Averages: 20-Period 50-Period

Dow & SP500 break highs; Europe mixed:

US indices picked up over 1% for the week
with the Dow Jones and Sp500 breaking 2016
consolidation highs. It puts them on track to
challenge high of 2015. The Nasdaq moves to
challenge its 2016 highs this week.
Short term Support and Resistance estimates
for US indices are shown below:
Dow: (S) 17,713-17,254 (R) 18,167-18,351
SP500: (S) 2,074-2,018 (R) 2,134-2,150
Nasdaq: (S) 4,786-4,574 (R) 4,980-5,176

European indices showed mixed results at

the end of the week. The British FTSE (+0.19%
WoW) pushed back into a light advance while
the German DAX (-1.5%) and the French CAC
(-1.9%) reacted to support and is now trying
to bounce from this retest. A watch on
support is still necessary for these two
The US 10-Yr Bond Yield ($tnx) proceeded to
fall hard (-6.18% WoW) as traders raised
opinions that the FED would likely contain
itself from any interest rate hikes due to the
potential problems that England stepping
away from the EU may cause. The TNX has
now hit oversold levels and could attempt a
temporary recovery soon to offset this down
stretch

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Asian Markets
Asia was mixed; China leads advancers:
Asian markets were a mixed bag for the week
with Japan still showing softness while China
moved up 1.9% for the week
Asian Indices (for the week)
China
Thailand
Singapore
Indonesia

1.90%
0.74%
0.02%
0.01%

India
Malaysia
Philippines
Hong Kong

-0.07%
-0.10%
-0.75%
-1.11%

S Korea
Japan

-1.22%
-3.67%

Japans Nikkei is still under pressure likely

because of its strengthening Yen (but the Yen is
overbought and may need some reaction
time); Chinas Shanghai broke free from its
consolidation (>2,945) but reacts after a strong
3 days a temporary pause...
The PSEi (7,771 -0.75% WoW) corrected 58-pts
for the week but still maintains its recovery
trend. A new trendline appears to tighten in
support (7,550) while its 32-day MA offered a
slightly higher demand base at 7,622.
Resistance is adjusted to 7,950-8,130

* Simple Moving Averages: 20-Period 50-Period

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Bullseye ---

Currencies & Commodities

Dollar tests resistance, Euro retests support:
The US Dollar index (96.33 +0.63% WoW)
was higher for the week, but did hit range
highs and tests resistance. It maintains a large
rectangular pattern which began in March of
2015. Range trade. (Sup 92.69 / Res 96.8698.60/100.60)
The Euro index (110.50 -0.78% WoW) slid
after hitting short term resistance. A Sell on
rally is now raised given an ongoing reactive
channel. (Sup 109.71-108.25/ Res 111.68112.73)
The Yen index (99.42 +1.93% WoW)
[$100.55] was higher for the week, keeping
to its up trend but now hitting overbought
levels. A Hold or a buy into dips is seen. (Sup
96.00-94.80 / Res 101.00-102.88 )
Gold ($1,367.40 +1.67% WoW) was higher
for the week and maintains its advance. Both
Daily and weekly studies show overbought
levels. Reactions may be needed soon. (Sup
1,317-1,282 /Res 1,392-1,400)
Copper ($2.12 -4.39% WoW) was lower for
the week whipping back from the high end of
its consolidation. Range trade. (Sup 2.10-2.01
/ Res 2.30 -2.30)
Oil ($45.12 -8.44% WoW) was lower for the
week, breaking major support and now
consolidating into a reaction. Lighten into
rallies. (Sup 43.03 -40.33/ Res 50.00-51.67)

* Simple Moving Averages: 20-Period 50-Period

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