10/06/2016

India'sunilatealbiasinaddressingforeignrelations:Whygoitalone?TheHindu

OPINIONLEAD

Published:June3,201601:17IST|Updated:June3,201601:22ISTJune3,2016

Whygoitalone?

HappymonJacob

Illustration:Keshav
Indiahastraditionallydisplayedaselfimposedunilateralbiasinaddressingkeychallengesintheneighbourhoodandnearabroad.The
limitsofthisapproachareevident
TheSalmaDaminAfghanistansHeratProvince,builtwithIndianassistanceandscheduledtobeinauguratedduringPrimeMinister
NarendraModisupcomingvisittoAfghanistan,isasignificantlandmarkinIndiasengagementwiththewarravagedcountry.
ComingcloseontheheelsoftheIndianinvestmentinIransChabaharportcomplexandopeningalandrouteonwardstoAfghanistan,
theongoingstrategicengagementwithTehranandKabulrepresentsNewDelhisambitiousforayintoitsextendedneighbourhood.
Momentousthoughtheseinitiativesare,thereisconsiderablescepticismwithinthestrategiccommunityregardingIndiasmaterialand
politicalwherewithaltostaythecoursevisvistheselongtermprojects,especiallyinthecontextofIndiasnotsoimpressiverecordwhen
itcomestodeliveringonstrategicallyimportantprojectsintheregionandbeyond.
Theproblemandthesolution
Indiasstrategicengagementsintheregionandbeyondsufferfromseveralhandicaps.Firstofall,NewDelhilacksthefinancialresourcesto
investincrucialprojectsinasustainedmannerduetobudgetconstraintsandcompulsionsofdomesticpriorities.NewDelhisinabilityto
acceptColombosoffertobuildtheHambantotaPortsomeyearsagoisacaseinpoint.Clearly,thereisonlysomuchthatadeveloping
countrylikeIndiacandotoassistothers.Second,thereisalsoaproblemofsevereattentiondeficitresultingfromaninabilitytocommit
diplomaticandpoliticalcapitaltopursuekeystrategicobjectives.Third,manyofIndiasstrategicinitiativesintheregion,Chabaharfor
instance,oftengetportrayedincompetitiveterms,therebygettingintothecrosshairsofadversarial/insecureneighbours.
Finally,thisproblemiscompoundedbythefactthatNewDelhihastraditionallydisplayedaselfimposedunilateralbiasinaddressingkey
challengesintheneighbourhoodandnearabroad.Indeed,thistendencytogosolopartlyexplainsthelacklustreperformanceofatleast
someofIndiasstrategicinitiatives,andhas,indeed,contributedtoacertainstrategicdiffidenceinourstrategicculture.
Howcanweovercomethismaterialandpoliticalinabilitytotakeourstrategicinitiativestotheirlogicalconclusionandleveragetheminthe
longerterm?Thesolutiontothisproblem,tomymind,isnotthrowingmoretaxpayersmoneyattheseinitiatives,butbya)adoptingagrand
strategicapproachtoaddressingkeystrategicchallenges.Weneedtoknowwhywearedoingwhatwearedoing:thereshouldbeaclear
rationaleguidingourstrategicengagements(Iamnotsure,forinstance,ifthereissuchthinkingbehindthedevelopmentoftheAyniairbase
inTajikistanbyIndia)b)movingfromaunilateralapproachtotacklingproblemstoamultilateralapproach,andc)creatinga
regional/globalconsensusonkeychallenges.Letsexaminesomeofourcurrentstrategicengagementsintheregionandseewhethera
multilateralapproachcanhelpuspursueourobjectivesbetter.
CodevelopingChabahar
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India'sunilatealbiasinaddressingforeignrelations:Whygoitalone?TheHindu

TakethecaseoftheIndianinvestmentinIransChabaharportcomplex.Attheoutset,itisimportanttobecognisantoffourimportant
issues.First,muchoftheIndiancommentaryhasoverstatedthestrategicsignificanceoftherecentlysignedChabahardeal,withsome
overenthusiasticmediacommentatorsevenpositingitasacountertotheChinesebuiltGwadarportinPakistan.Second,Iranwas
unambiguousinstatingthatitisnotanIndiancomplex(theIndianpresencewouldbelimitedtodevelopingasmallpartofahuge
complex).TheIranianAmbassadortoPakistan,MehdiHonerdoost,wentevenfurther:Thedealisnotfinished.Wearewaitingfornew
members.Pakistan,ourbrotherlyneighbours,andChina,agreatpartneroftheIraniansandagoodfriendofPakistan,arebothwelcome.
Third,itisdelusionaltothinkwecandeveloptheportcomplexandthelandaccesstoAfghanistanonwardstoCentralAsiaallonourownand
maintainthem.Finally,evenifweareableto,hypotheticallyspeaking,carryoutallthesegrandplansonourown,wemaynotbeableto
sustaintheminthelongerrunduetofinancialandsecurityreasons.LetsrecallthattheChabaharprojectwasconceivedof13yearsagobutit
couldnotbecompletedduetoanumberofreasons,includingfinancialcommitmentissuesandU.S.sanctionsonIran.
Thereisthereforenopointintryingtodoitallbyourselves:whynotgetsomeofIndiaskeystrategicpartners,suchastheJapanesewho
mighthaveboththeinclinationandthemoney,interestedindevelopingtheportwithIndia?PartneringwithJapanorEuropeancountriesto
codeveloptheportwithIndiawouldsaveussomemoney,enableustocompletetheprojectontime,andensuremoresecurityand
acceptabilitytotheproject.
UnilateralisminAfghanistan
EngagementwithAfghanistanisyetanotherareawhereIndiaseemstofavourunilateralisminsteadofmultilateralapproaches.Thereisno
denyingthefactthatIndiasengagementwithKabulhassofarbeenpraiseworthythankstoitswellconceivedreconstructionand
developmentassistance(over$2billionsofar)toAfghanistan.TheAfghanParliament,constructedwithIndianassistanceandinaugurated
byMr.ModiinDecemberlastyear,andscoresofschoolbuildingsandhospitals,amongothers,havegeneratedalotofgoodwillforIndia
there.
Andyet,thereisarealdangerofIndianinterestsandassetsbeingthetargetofadversariesinthedaysaheadwiththeTalibanontheriseand
NATOandU.S.troopswithdrawingfromAfghanistan.Inthepasteightyears,theIndianembassywasattackedtwice.SoweretheIndian
consulatesinHeratandJalalabad.Moreover,anumberofIndianreconstructionworkershavebeenkilled,andtherewasevenareportedplot
toblowuptheSalmadam.
Theproblemistwofold.One,whilethereisnoguaranteethatIndiasinvestmentsinAfghanistanwouldbesafefromfutureattacks,New
Delhidoesnotseemtohaveacontingencyplantodealwithitotherthanperhapsputtinganendtothegoodworkthere.Two,NewDelhidoes
notseemtohaverecognisedthefactthatreconstructionandpeacebuildingshouldgohandinhand.Itisimportanttocalibrate
reconstructioneffortswithreconciliationandpeacebuildingtosustaintheformer.Indiahassofarshiedawayfromparticipatinginthe
AfghanpeaceprocesssincetheousteroftheTalibanregimein2001.
IfNewDelhisAfghanpolicyistobemeaningfulandsustainable,itneedstodotwothings:getlikemindedcountriesonboardIndias
reconstructioneffortsinAfghanistan,andsupportandengageintheAfghanreconciliationandpeacebuildingprocess.FormerAfghan
PresidentHamidKarzairecentlystatedthatIndia,IranandRussiashouldbeincludedinthetalkswiththeTaliban.Whynot?
IndiaChinastrategicpartnership
IndiashouldalsotrytoengageChinamoreproactivelyandwithalongtermgeopoliticalimagination.Eventhoughthetwosideshavea
strategicpartnership,itremainsoneofIndiasmostunderutilisedstrategicpartnerships.Oneofthemajorreasonsbehindthisisthatboth
IndiaandChinahavetraditionallyviewedeachotherthroughthePakistanprism,andtheresultantfaultyviewofeachotherhasconstrained
usfromfullyutilisingourpotentialinaddressingthechallengesfacedbytheregion.
AmoremeaningfulSinoIndianstrategicpartnershipshouldthereforebeundertakenatthreelevels.First,byjointlyfightingterrorinthe
region.WhileIndiaismoreatthereceivingendofterroristviolence,Chinahasalsostartedfeelingtheheatandwillincreasinglydosoboth
onitsownterritoryanditsassetsabroad,includinginPakistan.Latelastyearthetwocountriesissuedajointstatementoncombating
internationalterrorismanddescribedpotentialstepssuchasexchanginginformationonterroristactivities,terroristgroupsandtheir
linkages,exchangingexperiencesonantihijacking,hostagesituationsandotherterrorismrelatedcrimesandcoordinatingpositionsonanti
terrorismendeavoursatregionalandmultilaterallevelsandsupportingeachother.
AlthoughBeijinghasbeenlessthanhelpfulinconfrontingterrorismemanatingfromPakistanisoil,thisjointstatementisarareopportunity
forNewDelhitonudgeChinatocooperatemoreontheterrorquestion.ASinoIndianjointtaskforceonterrorismtodiscussthespreadof
terrorismintheregionandtodevisemethodstodealwithitwouldbeausefulwayahead.Moreso,ifNewDelhiisseriousaboutgetting
Chinesecooperationonfightingterror,alotmorehighlevelengagementwithBeijingwouldberequired.
Second,ChinatodayisamajorcontributortoSouthAsiasdevelopmentalneeds.WhileitistruethatIndiahadtraditionallywieldedagreat
dealofinfluenceintheregionduetoethnic,politicalandeconomiclinkages,thereisnopointincryingfoulaboutincreasingChineseforays
intotheregion:itsperhapsnaturalforarisingglobalpowertodoso,andthereishardlyanythingwecandotopreventthat.NewDelhi
shouldthereforejoinhandswithBeijingtodeveloptheregionseconomy,tradeandinfrastructure.
Finally,IndianreactionstoChinasOneBelt,OneRoad(OBOR)projectneednotbeeitherdismissiveorworried,norshouldwedismissitas
aChinesenationalprojectandlooktheotherway.Ourobjectiveshouldbetoseehowwecanutilisethemanyeconomic,infrastructuraland
otheropportunitiesopenedupbyOBOR.TheriseofChina,andtheattendantgeopoliticaltransformationoftheregion,willtakeplacewithor
withoutIndia:soletstrytousethistransformationtofurtherourownnationalinterests.
ItisimportantforNewDelhisstrategicplannerstorecognisethatwhenitcomestodealingwithkeyregionalchallengesandopportunities,
unilateralismisnottheway.Weneedtocreatealliancesandcoalitionstoconfrontchallengesandbetterutiliseopportunities,andintodays
loosemultipolarworld,ouralliancebehaviourshouldbeguidedbyclearstrategicobjectivesratherthantraditionalfriendshipsalone.
HappymonJacobisAssociateProfessorofDisarmamentStudiesattheCentreforInternationalPolitics,OrganisationandDisarmament,
SchoolofInternationalStudies,JNU.
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IndiacommitshugeinvestmentinChabaharMay23,2016
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