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Crop Farming 2030

The Reinvention of the Sector

The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) is a global
















 


Crop Farming 2030


The Reinvention of the Sector

Lorenzo Corsini, Kim Wagner, Andreas Gocke, and Torsten Kurth










  






 


 


 











 





























Which Trends Will Shape the Future of Farming?







 
for agriculture
Demand
Changing
mobility

Political
megatrends

Regulations

Labor
shortage

ie s

log

in

Water usage
& irrigation

r
fa

no

es
m
in

Drones

st

Smallholders

Automation

Precision
farming

Tillage
practices

ru

Internet
of Things

Financing and
insurance

Autonomous
machines

Barters

Autonomous
weeding machine

ch

ng

Contract
farming

Real-time
kinematics

Ch a

Mapping
approach

Asymmetric
catalysis

Cost
reduction

Online
sensors

Backward
integration

Control of
quality

Chemistry
New
processes

Yield
increase
Decision
farming

Professional
purchasing

Global warming

Microemulsions

New-crop New
protection actives

Crop
protection

New farming
models

Planting
patterns

Nitrogen use
efficiency

Combination
products

Seeds

Fertilizer

Increased
investments in
technology

Wheat in
northern regions

re

Drought
tolerance

Soil
microbiome

Herbicide/GMO
combination

Equipment

Virtual
consolidation

Beneficial
microbes

te

Farm size

tu

Food

Biologics

New-generation
seeds

Trade
regulations

Consolidation
of land
Labor
substitution

Disease
resistance
C4 rice

Feed

Planting
patterns

Nitrogen use
efficiency

RNAi

an

Bans

Corporate
farming

Materials

Subsidies

Non-GMO
declaration

Molecular-assisted
breeding

s
nd
tre

Organic

Biomolecular tools

Rising middle class

Hazard
evaluations

Consumer
trends

iPS cells

Population growth

Environmental
protection

Food
transparency

Sequencing
and annotation

Strip tillage

Ch a

n ge

si

ar
nf

in

es

So
c

Health
focus

CRISPR

Demographic
megatrends

Improving
education

io

al
ic
lit

s
nd
tre

y
og
ol
hn
ec
ot
Bi

Urbanization
Business
ethics

a
pr

ct

ic


 

 


 






  

 
 


 






 
 









 













































 
 
  

 











-

 

  


France

Germany1

Poland

UK

U.S.
+9%
186
157

168

+27%

Average
farm size
(hectares)

90
+145%
42

+229%
54
46

22

71
56

+43%

17
n/a

1970 2000 2010

1970 2000 2010

10

1970 2000 2010

n/a
1970 2000 2010

1970 2000 2010

  Economic


& Political Weekly, 
  
  
  





  


Farmers citing a trend as influential (%)

60

44

40

36
28

Precision farming:
Precision farming
will become
the standard and
further advance
technologically

Automation:
Automation will
enable farmers to
manage a farm
with fewer people

Consolidation:
The agricultural
sector will further
consolidate

Professionalism:
The degree of
professionalism
will increase,
especially on
large farms


 





Labor shortage:
A shortage of
qualified employees
will be a major
challenge in 2030









 


 


 










 

 













 


Fertilizer and planting methods
Planting methods
for vegetables
and fruits
Aquaponics,
hydroponics

Planting and
tillage methods

Nitrogen-fixing
biologics

Seed varieties
Varieties of soy,
cotton, other crops

Soy
varieties

Biologic
compositions
for fertilizers
and crop
protection

Variable-rate/
depth components

Autonomous
vehicles

Connectivity
of sensors
and equipment

Precision harvesters
and mowers
Automated
applications
for dairy farms
Herbicides
and weeding
compositions

Novel GMOs, partially


RNAi-mediated
resistances
Nitrogen use
efficiency

Various
Sensors

components

Sensors and components


for autonomous driving

Controlledrelease fertilizer

Other fertilizing
compositions
and methods

Corn varieties
and hybrids

Precision and conventional


equipment Tractor

Equipment
components

GMO
seeds
Diseasepreventing
GMOs

Crop protection Microemulsion-

based insecticides
and other pesticides

Mixtures
of chemical
and biological
fungicides

Various new
active ingredients
Polymeric
compositions

Various new
active ingredients

 

 












 





 






Microemulsionbased germicides
and bactericides


















   
 
















 




 

 



 




 













Quality-weighted share of patents (%)1

7
23
7
8
15

35

70

35
Crop protection
Absolute number
of patents
North America

19

6,815
Europe

1
2

15
53
4
28

78

Precision and
conventional equipment

Seeds

Fertilizer

5,337

2,407

987

China

Other

 

 












Defining Strategies and Building Capabilities to Harvest Value











 


  














 







 












 












 





 

 





 -










 













Entrepreneurial Culture.

 



Strong Skills for Investing and M&A.








Strong Skills for New-Product Development and Program Management.



 


Agility.






Separate Management of New Businesses.








Starting the Journey










 






 


 










 
  

  


Facts and Figures
on Organic Agriculture in the European Union, 



 

Agricultural Systems,

 
 Economic & Political
Weekly, 
 


  

 
 

  




  





Lorenzo Corsini


Kim Wagner

Andreas Gocke


Torsten Kurth






 
 

 





 


 



 

 

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