Example Problem for Elements of Risk Analysis

Example problem-1: Consider health hazards of Salmonella enteritidis (ES), which is the
second most common cause of food poisoning after Campylobacter. It has been found
primarily in unpasteurized milk, eggs, egg products, meat, and poultry. ES can survive if food is
not cooked properly. In the U.S., there are 19 ES-related human illnesses per 10 6 shell eggs
consumed, 710 deaths per million ES-related illnesses, 47 billion shell eggs consumed per
year, the average cost of the illness is US$ 400 per case. Calculate economic risk (expected
losses) caused by ES illnesses and mortality risks due to consumption of shell eggs in the U.S.
Example problem-2: According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, in 2003, there were
6.3 million automobile accidents: 1 in 3 of such accidents resulted in injury, and 1 in 165
resulting in death. Assuming average loss of US$ 450,000 per death and US$ 25,000 of
property damage for accidents involving fatality; average loss of US$ 15,000 per injury and
property loss of US$10,000 for accidents involving injury; average property loss of US$ 3,000
for all other accidents, calculate the total monetary risk (expected losses) of automobile
accidents per driver in the U.S. Assume that the U.S. population exposed to automobile
accidents is 250 million.

Example problem-3: A CNG (Compressed natural gas) vehicle system comprised of major
subsystems and activities including natural gas supply, the compression and storage unit,
dispensing facility, CNG vehicle and operator interactions with equipments and maintenance
activities. Perform a qualitative risk assessment for fatalities resulting from fire and explosion
events.
Example problem-4: Perform a quantitative risk assessment for CNG vehicle system on the
above example.
Example problem-5: Air pollution in city caused by four sources: Automobile exhaust (A);
Industrial exhaust (I); Dust (D) and Pollen from plants and trees (T). On a given day the
likelihood of air pollution caused by these sources 4:3:2:1, respectively. The probability of helth
hazard (H) caused by these sources is 0.01, 0.005, 0.0005, 0.0001, respectively. Assume A, I,
D and T are collectively exhaustive and mutually exclusive.
a. Calculate the probability of health hazard for the city on a given day.

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Example Problem for Elements of Risk Analysis

b. What is the probability that there will be no health hazard in 30 days? In one year (365
days)? Assume that health hazard on subsequent days are statistically independent
c. If there was health hazard, calculate the probability that the hazard caused by
automobile exhaust (A).
Example problem 7: Methyl-mercury has been inadvertently released to a nearby lake. The
investigation report discovered a small community living nearby the lake is exposing to Methylmercury through the fish consumption of the lake.

With 90% (subjective) confidence,

determine the risk to the maximally exposed individual? Equation 6.1 is used to determine the
risk in terms of Hazard Index
HI

CF I F
BM RfD

[6.1]

Table 7.1: The (subjective) probability distributions for this problem.

Parameter

Distribution

Min.

Max.

Mean/Mode

STD

2.06E-01

4.22E-02

Fish concentration(CF),
mg/kg

Normal

Intake of Fish (IF),kg/d

Uniform

2.00E-02

1.30E-01

6.50E-02

Methyl mercury RfD

(RfDMM), mg/kg-d

Triangle

1.50E-04

3.00E-03

3.00E-04

Body mass (BM), kg

Triangle

4.50E+01

1.20E+02

7.00E+01

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