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Article history:
Received 29 April 2014
Received in revised form 15 July 2014
Accepted 15 July 2014
Available online xxx
JEL classication:
L11
F15
a b s t r a c t
In criticizing the nature of the Human Development Index, this paper proposes a different
way of constructing the HDI in terms of capturing the pure ow of human development in
the areas of material well-being, health, and education. Our comparison of the HDIF and
the HDI shows that measuring human development with ow variables provides a better
human development performance in terms of health and education than the traditional
measure which is a mixture of stock and ow variables.
2014 Western Social Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Keywords:
Human development
Policy
Education
Health
GDP
Dynamic analysis
1. Introduction
The Human Development Index (HDI) is a composite statistic aimed at measuring the human development
level of any country and to allow cross-country comparison. Based on the HDI, a country is classied into
three tiers of development: developed, still developing, or
underdeveloped. According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), human development is about
We appreciate the nancial support from National Science Foundation of China (71303200) and Ministry of Education of the Peoples
Republic of China (12YJC790263). We are grateful to anonymous referees
for their invaluable suggestion.
Corresponding author at: School of Economics, Xiamen University,
Fujian 361005, China. fax: +86 592 2186366.
E-mail addresses: Jack.Hou@csulb.edu (J. Hou), ppwalsh@ucd.ie
(P.P. Walsh), jzhang1@xmu.edu.cn (J. Zhang).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2014.07.003
0362-3319/ 2014 Western Social Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Please cite this article in press as: Hou, J., et al. The dynamics of Human Development Index. The Social Science Journal
(2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2014.07.003
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.2
.2
Education index
.4
.6
.8
.8
.2
.4
.6
.8
.2
.4
.6
.8
GDP index
GDP index
Fig. 1. (i) GDP index and life expectancy index. (ii) GDP index and education index.
Source: The data for the GDP index, life expectancy index and education index is obtained from various Human Development Reports.
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1
As a metaphor, what if Doctoral students are admitted based on
their cumulative GPA since kindergarten? That would be what a stock
measure implies. In contrast, a ow-based measure would evaluate the
applicant based on student performance in the last two years of undergraduate studies.
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Y min(Y )
max min
.8
GEI =
HDI
.6
X min(X)
MR5 = 1
max min
.4
1980
2
The classication of regions is consistent with the one used in various
Human Development Reports commissioned by UNDP.
3
The main reason the sample period ended at 2007 is to avoid the
disruptive effect of the sub-prime crisis.
2010
.7
HDIF
.8
.9
.6
2000
Year
1990
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
East Asia and Pacific
Latin America and the Caribbean
North America
Sub-Saharan Africa
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Table 1
Summary statistics for different measures of health and education indexes by region in 1980, 2000, and 2007.
Under-ve
mortality index
Life expectancy
index
Enrolment
index
Education
index
GDP index
Year = 1980
East Asia and the Pacic
Europe and Central Asia
Latin America and the Caribbean
The Middle East and North Africa
North America
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
0.806
0.882
0.810
0.802
0.967
0.594
0.582
0.390
0.760
0.661
0.622
0.825
0.464
0.427
0.958
0.949
0.968
0.881
0.988
0.682
0.739
0.669
0.851
0.723
0.586
0.931
0.495
0.430
0.605
0.827
0.663
0.757
0.920
0.390
0.451
Year = 2000
East Asia and the Pacic
Europe and Central Asia
Latin America and the Caribbean
The Middle East and North Africa
North America
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
0.890
0.946
0.920
0.917
0.983
0.758
0.676
0.723
0.808
0.768
0.767
0.894
0.599
0.471
0.977
0.980
0.995
0.927
0.997
0.804
0.808
0.799
0.928
0.824
0.720
0.971
0.575
0.557
0.622
0.794
0.687
0.767
0.983
0.520
0.443
Year = 2007
East Asia and the Pacic
Europe and Central Asia
Latin America and the Caribbean
The Middle East and North Africa
North America
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
0.919
0.966
0.940
0.940
0.983
0.798
0.724
0.759
0.834
0.795
0.792
0.915
0.654
0.498
0.994
0.988
0.991
0.959
0.990
0.969
0.929
0.824
0.940
0.861
0.792
0.980
0.610
0.602
0.652
0.844
0.722
0.796
0.991
0.548
0.471
Regions
Note: The trend data for the HDI and its components is obtained from various Human Development Reports. The data on under-ve mortality rate is from
the World Health Organizations Statistical Information System, the gross primary-school enrolment ratio is from UNESCO.
4
The timing of this improved development is intriguing, as the initial
upswing appeared right after the Iraq-Kuwait war, while the acceleration
is more reective of the fall of Saddam Hussein and perhaps leading into
the Arab Spring. More comprehensive analysis of this regions development is certainly worthwhile.
Please cite this article in press as: Hou, J., et al. The dynamics of Human Development Index. The Social Science Journal
(2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2014.07.003
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.1
0
.05
HDIF-HDI
.15
.2
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
East Asia and Pacific
Latin America and the Caribbean
North America
Sub-Saharan Africa
Fig. 4. Difference between the level of HDIF and HDI from 1980 to 2007.
Source: The data for the HDI index is obtained from various Human Development Reports. The construction of HDIF is based on data from World
Health Organizations Statistical Information System, UNESCO and Human
Development Reports.
identify the effectiveness of policies implemented in different years or how soon the policy took effect. In other
words, HDI does not give policy makers a very clear signal.
On the other hand, HDIF provides a more accurate picture
of a countrys performance in real time. HDIF enables policy makers to better gauge the effectiveness of their policies
and make adjustments when necessary. This is especially
true for developing countries as the HDI is heavily stockladen and slow to respond to new policies (Fig. 2).
The high and middle human-development regions
experienced a reduction in the HDIF-HDI gap (Fig. 4),
which implies that the non-income quality-of-life variables are converging. This is not surprising, as a major
factor leading to increased literacy levels has been more
widespread access to basic education. Similarly, increased
life expectancy is a consequence of improved under-ve
survival rate. High human-development countries, albeit
from a higher starting position in terms of both health and
education, not only efciently converted their wealth into
human development in both measures, but nal convergence is a sign that the ow variables have reached the
upper bounds in terms of a 100% enrolment ratio and a
0.04% mortality rate.
On the other hand, in the low human development
countries, such as South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, the
gap between the HDIF and the HDI indices become more
pronounced after 2000. Both the stock and ow measures
of these regions started at a lower base compared to the
high human-development countries. The divergence pattern could be the result of rapid improving ow variables,
causing both health and education components of the HDIF
to show high growth rates. The stock variables in the HDI
index will grow also, but at a slower and delayed rate. The
aggregate regional index values discussed above convey
important information about inter-regional development;
they do not give an accurate picture of how each country
within the same HDI group performs. In addition, it would
be of interest to distinguish which of the ow variables
health or education drives the human development
of a particular country. Given the page limitations, it is
5
Selected countries in each group are shown in Figs. 5.15.7. Please
contact authors for more information.
6
As China has gained much notoriety mainly due to her economic performance, interested readers can refer to Hou (2011a, 2011b) for a general
discussion on the success and potential problems down the road. For
some insight into Chinas political governance, refer to Li and Lin (2011)
and Man, Zheng, and Lang (2011). For an introduction to Chinas health
and education issues, Hou and Li (2011) and Hu and Hibel (2013) provide
interesting perspectives.
7
Hsu (2013) provides detailed discussion of this issue.
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Brunei Darussalam
Cambodia
China
Fiji
Indonesia
0 .2 .4 .6 .8
HDIF-HDI
0 .2 .4 .6 .8
Australia
1980
2000
2010
Kiribati
0 .2 .4 .6 .8
Japan
1990
1980
1990
2000
2010 1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
edu
Graphs by country
health
(i)
Malaysia
Myanmar
New Zealand
Philippines
Samoa
Mongolia
.2 .4 .6
Singapore
.2 .4 .6
HDIF-HDI
.2 .4 .6
1980
1990
2000
2010 1980
1990
2000
2010 1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
edu
health
Graphs by country
(ii)
Fig. 5.1. Differences in health and education between ow and stock measures in East Asia and the Pacic.
Source: The data for the HDI index is obtained from various Human Development Reports. The construction of HDIF is based on data from World Health
Organizations Statistical Information System, UNESCO and Human Development Reports.
Please cite this article in press as: Hou, J., et al. The dynamics of Human Development Index. The Social Science Journal
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Armenia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Belgium
-.5 0 .5 1
HDIF-HDI
-.5 0 .5 1
Albania
1980
2000
2010
Bulgaria
-.5 0 .5 1
1990
1980
1990
2000
2010 1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
edu
health
Graphs by country
(i)
Romania
Russian Federation
Serbia
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
-1 -.5 0 .5
HDIF-HDI
-1 -.5 0 .5
Portugal
1980
2000
2010
Sweden
-1 -.5 0 .5
Spain
1990
1980
1990
2000
2010 1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
Graphs by country
edu
health
(ii)
Fig. 5.2. Differences in health and education between ow and stock measures in Europe and Central Asia.
Source: The data for the HDI index is obtained from various Human Development Reports. The construction of HDIF is based on data from World Health
Organizations Statistical Information System, UNESCO and Human Development Reports.
Please cite this article in press as: Hou, J., et al. The dynamics of Human Development Index. The Social Science Journal
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Dominica
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
El Salvador
Grenada
0 .1 .2 .3 .4
HDIF-HDI
0 .1 .2 .3 .4
Costa Rica
1980
2000
2010
Guyana
0 .1 .2 .3 .4
Guatemala
1990
1980
1990
2000
2010 1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
edu
health
(i)
Graphs by country
Honduras
Jamaica
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
.1 .2 .3 .4 .5
HDIF-HDI
.1 .2 .3 .4 .5
Haiti
1980
2000
2010
Peru
.1 .2 .3 .4 .5
Paraguay
1990
1980
1990
2000
2010 1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
edu
Graphs by country
health
(ii)
Fig. 5.3. Differences in health and education between ow and stock measures in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Source: The data for the HDI index is obtained from various Human Development Reports. The construction of HDIF is based on data from World Health
Organizations Statistical Information System, UNESCO and Human Development Reports.
Please cite this article in press as: Hou, J., et al. The dynamics of Human Development Index. The Social Science Journal
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Suriname
Uruguay
Venezuela
.05
.25
.05
.1
.15
.2
HDIF-HDI
.1
.15
.2
.25
St. Lucia
1980
1990
2000
2010 1980
1990
2000
2010 1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
edu
health
Graphs by country
(iii)
Fig. 5.3. (Continued ).
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Bahamas
Bahrain
Djibouti
Egypt
-.2 0 .2 .4 .6
HDIF-HDI
-.2 0 .2 .4 .6
Algeria
1980
1990
2000
2010 1980
1990
2000
2010
-.2 0 .2 .4 .6
Iraq
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
edu
health
Graphs by country
(i)
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Tunisia
-.5 0 .5 1
HDIF-HDI
-.5 0 .5 1
Oman
1980
1990
2000
2010 1980
1990
2000
2010
-.5 0 .5 1
Yemen
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
edu
health
Graphs by country
(ii)
Fig. 5.4. Differences in health and education between ow and stock measures in the Middle East and North Africa.
Source: The data for the HDI index is obtained from various Human Development Reports. The construction of HDIF is based on data from World Health
Organizations Statistical Information System, UNESCO and Human Development Reports.
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HDIF-HDI
.05
.1
.15
Canada
1980
1990
2000
2010 1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
edu
Graphs by country
health
Fig. 5.5. Differences in health and education between ow and stock measures in North America.
Source: The data for the HDI index is obtained from various Human Development Reports. The construction of HDIF is based on data from World Health
Organizations Statistical Information System, UNESCO and Human Development Reports.
Bangladesh
Bhutan
India
Maldives
Pakistan
0 .2 .4 .6
HDIF-HDI
0 .2 .4 .6
Afghanistan
1980
1990
2000
2010 1980
1990
2000
2010
0 .2 .4 .6
Sri Lanka
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
Graphs by country
edu
health
Fig. 5.6. Differences in health and education between ow and stock measures in South Asia.
Source: The data for the HDI index is obtained from various Human Development Reports. The construction of HDIF is based on data from World Health
Organizations Statistical Information System, UNESCO and Human Development Reports.
Please cite this article in press as: Hou, J., et al. The dynamics of Human Development Index. The Social Science Journal
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Chad
Comoros
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
-.2 0 .2 .4 .6
HDIF-HDI
-.2 0 .2 .4 .6
1980
2000
2010
Gabon
-.2 0 .2 .4 .6
Ethiopia
1990
1980
1990
2000
2010 1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
edu
Graphs by country
health
(i)
Rwanda
Senegal
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
0 .2 .4 .6
HDIF-HDI
0 .2 .4 .6
Nigeria
1980
2000
2010
Sudan
0 .2 .4 .6
South Africa
1990
1980
1990
2000
2010 1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
edu
health
Graphs by country
(ii)
Fig. 5.7. Differences in health and education between ow and stock measures in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Source: The data for the HDI index is obtained from various Human Development Reports. The construction of HDIF is based on data from World Health
Organizations Statistical Information System, UNESCO and Human Development Reports.
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Togo
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
0
.8
0
.2
.4
.6
HDIF-HDI
.2
.4
.6
.8
Swaziland
1980
1990
2000
2010 1980
1990
2000
2010 1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
edu
health
Graphs by country
(iii)
Fig. 5.7. (Continued ).
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Table 2
Difference between HDI and HDIF rankings in 1980, 2000, and 2007.
Year
Obs.
Mean
S.D.
Min
Max
1980
2000
2007
114
160
170
0
0
0
9.12
11.46
12.12
36 (Oman)
64 (Montenegro)
52 (Antigua and Barbuda)
26 (Madagascar)
34 (Botswana)
55 (Botswana)
Note: (1) Only nations with both HDI and HDIF measures are included. (2) The ranking for the HDI is obtained from various Human Development Reports.
The construction of HDIF is based on data from World Health Organizations Statistical Information System, UNESCO and Human Development Reports.
8
In case the reader did not immediately recollect why there was a dramatic increase in observations (countries), in 1990s we saw many new
countries declare independence with the fall of the USSR. For example,
in the 1990s, the former Yugoslavia became ve independent countries,
and now it is moving toward eight separate nations. In addition, many
poorer nations lacked data in the early years of the sample period, this
also contributed to the larger sample size in latter years of our sample.
9
Botswana was granted self-governance by the British in 1964, and
gain independence in 1966. The growth rate is comparable both in terms
of duration and magnitude to the economic miracle of China of late.
10
In many cases poor political governance is linked with national culture, and public corruption seems to have the most impact on human
development (Sims, Gong, & Ruppel, 2012; Wu & Zhu, 2011).
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Fig. 6. Difference between HDI and HDIF rankings in 1980, 2000, and 2007. Note: If the difference is positive, the HDIF ranking is better than the HDI
ranking and vice versa.
Source: (1) The ranking for the HDI is obtained from various Human Development Reports. The construction of HDIF is based on data from World Health
Organizations Statistical Information System, UNESCO and Human Development Reports. (2) Only selected countries are shown in the gure.
Table 3
HDI ranking-HDIF ranking by level of human development.
High human development
Year
Mean
S.D.
Max
Min
Mean
S.D.
Max
Min
Mean
S.D.
Max
Min
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2006
2007
1.27
0.69
0.63
1.98
2.07
1.42
1.16
1.2
9.72
10.56
8.46
12.93
13.31
11.19
12.34
12.99
22
26
28
30
21
29
27
25
24
22
20
60
64
57
57
52
0.32
0.22
0.44
0.33
0.68
0.57
0.37
0.61
9.70
10.71
12.48
13.85
11.44
12.90
12.65
12.79
21
20
21
28
34
53
56
55
36
43
46
28
24
28
23
21
0.48
0.94
1.46
1.61
2.34
2.00
2.42
1.96
7.54
7.34
7.98
7.81
5.91
4.56
4.84
5.23
26
29
23
20
15
11
9
9
13
13
12
10
12
5
8
12
Average
1.34
11.79
30
64
0.30
12.16
56
46
1.59
6.67
29
13
Note: (1) Only nations with both HDI and HDIF measures are included. (2) The ranking for the HDI is obtained from various Human Development Reports.
The construction of HDIF is based on data from World Health Organizations Statistical Information System, UNESCO and Human Development Reports.
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would agree, the high development nations need no further rights, while the low development countries need all
the encouragement we can plausibly provide. The proposed HDIF establishes a logical platform to gauge such
positive governance, and perhaps can lead to a positive
reinforcement for the continued development of these
nations.
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