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TerriBonoffforCongress
DonnaVictoria,VictoriaResearch&Consulting
BaselineResultsforTerriBonoff
July13,2016

TerriBonoffsentranceintotheraceforthe3rdC.D.seatinstantlygarneredattentionacrossMinnesotaduetoTerris
impressiverecordasaprobusinessDemocratintheStateSenate,andtheuniquesetoffactorsinMinnesotas3rdC.D.that
makeitgroundzeroforthequestionofjusthowmanysuburbanseatsTrumpcanlosefortheRepublicansinCongress.The
votersinthe3rdprefercentristswhounderstandandtakeprideinanareafullofsuccessfulbusinessesandcorporate
headquarters,yetalsounderstandthattheyaresociallytolerantandwanttoplevelschools.TerriBonofffitsthat
descriptionsomuchbetterthanheropponentEricPaulsen.
BonoffmeansBusiness.Theraceistied,45%to45%,afteronlyonepositiveparagraphdescriptionofeachcandidate.
Terrispioneeringstoryofher18yearsasabusinessexecutive,andhowthatshapedherapproachtoservinginthe
StateSenateandworkingtomakegovernmentmoreeffectiveandinnovative,wasclearlyexactlywhatvotersare
lookingforastheyviewaCongressfilledwithcareerpoliticiansperfectinggridlock.
Votersinthe3rdDistrictarereadytovoteDemocratic;theyfeeltheRepublicanPartyleftthembehindinabidforthe
votesofanangry,churlishsubgroupoftheirParty.ButaftersupportingPresidentObamain2008and2012,perhapsa
majorityof3rdC.D.votersarereadyforapermanentchange:inagenericcongressionalmatchup,wefoundan
unprecedented9pointDemocraticadvantage,42%Democrattoonly34%Republican.Thisdistricthasneverbeenso
readyforachange,andthereisaonewordanswerastowhy:
Trump.InthePresidentialtrialheat,Trumpgarnersanabysmal28%ofthevoteagainstHillaryClinton,whoalready
hasa52%majority.Sixtyeightpercentofallvotersinthe3rdC.D.haveunfavorableviewstowardsTrump,anditdoes
notlooklikethatwillimprove.
PaulsenandTrump.ThevotersreadilyrecognizePaulsensexpectationtovoteforthenomineeforwhatitis:
unequivocalsupportforTrump.EspeciallywhenwepointedouthowverymuchPaulsenandTrumphavealotin
commononissuesofwomenshealthandtheirreproductivechoices,onsupportingtheNRAsabsurdoppositionto
NoFlyNoBuy,andonimmigration.

OtherimportantmessagesaboutPaulsenandhowhehasbeenpretendingtobeamoderateforsolong:

Paulsensupportsallowingbigcorporationsandspecialintereststomakepoliticaldonationssecretlywithout
disclosingtheirnamesmakingitpossiblethatforeigncompaniesandevenforeigngovernmentscoulddonate
illegallytoinfluenceAmericanelections.FiftytwopercentofvotersmuchlesslikelytovoteforPaulsen.

Paulsenvotedagainstmarriageequality,civilunions,anddomesticpartnerbenefits.Hesevenproudofgetting
anawardforhiseffortstowriteabanongaymarriageintothestateconstitution.Fortyninepercentofvoters
muchlesslikelytovoteforPaulsen.

Paulsenisaclimatesciencedenier.WhenaskedifhumanbeingsarecontributingtoglobalwarmingPaulsensaid
hewasntsmartenoughtoknowwhetherthatistrueornot.PaulsenslifetimescorefromtheLeagueof
ConservationVotersisa16outof100,forhisvotesoncleanenergysolutions,fracking,andmanyother
environmentalconcerns.FortyfivepercentofvotersmuchlesslikelytovoteforPaulsen.

ThismemorandumreportsonthefindingsofapolloflikelygeneralelectionvotersforNovember2016,conductedinthe3rdCongressional
DistrictofMinnesota,June27ththroughJune30th,2016.Fourhundred20minuteinterviewswereconducted;themarginoferrorfora
sampleofthissizeis4.9%.
7006CarrollAve,Suite201,TakomaPark,MD20912Phone:3015659500Email:DonnaV@VictoriaResearch.com

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