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DCC 5060 - Foreign Policy Analysis


(Revised as of 1 October 2014)
This course deals with the issues in foreign policy making from a broad comparative
perspective. It studies the ways states formulate their foreign policies and how these policies
are implemented. The course also examines external and internal factors that shape states
foreign policies, how states interact and why foreign policy choices may differ between states.
It analyzes not only the political system but also cultural and historical factors that influence
the foreign policy decision-making. The course will cover the following themes.
(1) Foreign Policy Analysis: Introduction
(2) Historical and Theoretical Perspectives
(3) Rational Actor Model in Foreign Policy
(4) Bureaucracies and Foreign Policy
(5) Groupthink in Foreign Policy
(6) Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy
(7) Game Theories and Foreign Policy
(8) Foreign Policy Crises
(9) Foreign Policy Making in Europe
(10) Foreign Policy Making in the Third World
Each class will be divided into two; lecture will be followed by paper presentation and class
discussion. Students should be aware that class participation is important and every student
is required to engage in paper presentation. An essay of 1000-1500 words on a topic relevant
to the course will be assigned. There is a final examination at the end of the term. Students
will be graded as follows:
Class participation and presentation

- 40%

Essay

- 30%

Final Examination

- 30%

Date of assignment for essay

7 November 2014

Date for submission for essay

12 December 2014

Date for Examination

19 December 2014

Selected Reading Materials


t Hart, Paul and et al. (ed.). Beyond Groupthink: Political Group Dynamics and Foreign
Policy-making (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1997)

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Allison, Graham T. and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile
Crisis, 2nd edition (Longman, 1999)
Anceschi, Luca. Turkmenistans Foreign Policy: Positive neutrality and the Consolidation of
the Turkmen Regime (London: Routledge, 2009)
Beaseley, Ryan Juliet Kaarbo, Jeffrey S. Lantis, and Michael T. Snarr, Foreign Policy in
Comparative Perspective (CQ Press, 2002)
Bicchi, Federica. European Foreign Policy Making Toward the Mediterranean (London:
Palgrave Macmillan, 2007)
Breuning, Marijke. Foreign Policy Analysis: A Comparative Introduction (London: Palgrave
MacMillan, 2007)
Chachavalpongpun, Pavin. Reinventing Thailand: Thaksin and His Foreign Policy
(Singapore: ISEAS, 2010)
Cooper F. Andrew & Timothy M. Shaw. The Diplomacies of Small State: Between
Vulnerability and Resilience (London: Palgrave Macmillan: 2009)
Dhillon, Karminder Singh. Malaysian Foreign Policy in the Mahathir Era 1981-2003
(Singapore: NUS Press, 2009)
Donaldson, Robert H. , Joseph L. Nogee and Vidya Nadkarni. The Foreign Policy of Russia:
Changing Systems, Enduring Interests, fifth edition (New York: M.E. Sharp,
2014)
Dougherty, James E. & Robert Pfalzgraff Jr.. Contending Theories of International
Relations: A Comprehensive Survey, 5th Edition (Longman, 2000)
Goldstein, Judith and Robert Keohane (ed.). Ideas and Foreign Policy: Beliefs, Institutions,
and Political Change (Cornell University Press, 1993)
Gvosdev, Nikolas K. and Christopher Marsh. Russian Foreign Policy: Interests, Vectors, and
Sectors (Washington D.C: CQ Press, 2014)
Haacke, Jurgen. Myanmar's Foreign Policy: Domestic Influences and International
Implications (London: Routledge, 2006)
Harris, Stuart. Chinas Foreign Policy (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2014)
Hill, Christopher. The Changing Politics of Foreign Policy (London: Palgrave MacMillan,
2003)
Holsti, K. J. Why Nations Realigned? (Unwin Hyman, 1982)
Holsti, Ole R.. Making American Foreign Policy (London: Routledge, 2006)
Janis, Irving L. Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes (Boston:
Houghton Mifflin Company, 2nd edition, 1982)
Jervis, Robert. Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton University
Press, 1976)
Jonson, Lena. Tajikistan in the New Central Asia: Geopolitics, Great Power Rivalry and
Radical Islam (London: I.B. Tauris, 2009)
Karrar, Hasan H. The New Silk Road Diplomacy: China's Central Asian Foreign Policy
since the Cold War (University of British Columbia Press, 2010)

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Khong Yuen Foong. Analogies at War (Princeton University Press, 1992)
Mankoff, Jeffrey. Russian Foreign Policy: The Return of Great Power Politics (Council on
Foreign Relations Books (New York: Rowman & Littlefield, 2009)
May, Ernest R. Lessons of the Past: the Use and Misuse of History in American Foreign
Policy (London: Oxford University Press, 1973)
Mingst, Karen and Jack Snyder (ed.). Essential Readings in World Politics, third edition (W.
W. Norton, 2007)
Nair, Shanti. Islam in Malaysian Foreign Policy (London: Routledge, 1997)
Neack, Laura. The New Foreign Policy: US and Comparative Foreign Policy in the 20th
Century (Rowman & Littlefield, 2003)
Nye Jr., Joseph S. Understanding International Conflicts: An Introduction to Theory and
History, 7th edition (Longman, 2008)
Richardson, James L. Crisis Diplomacy: The Great Powers since the Mid-Nineteenth
Century (Cambridge University Press, 1994)
Shinoda, Tomohito. Koizumi Diplomacy: Japan's Kantei Approach to Foreign and Defense
Affairs (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 2007)
Skuma, Rizal. Islam in Indonesia Foreign Policy (Rutledge, 2008)
Smith, Karen E. The Making of EU Foreign Policy: the Case of Eastern Europe. (London:
Palgrave Macmillan, 2004)
Stein, Arthur. Why Nations Cooperate: Circumstance and Choice in International Relations
(Cornell University Press, 1990)
Tuchman, Barbara W. The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam (New York: Ballantine
Books, 1984)

Reading List for Weekly Discussion


(Week-1) International Politics, Foreign Policy, and Level of Analysis (10 October 2014)
(1)

Valerie M. Hudson with Christopher S. Vore. Foreign Policy Analysis Yesterday,


Today, and Tomorrow, Meshon International Studies Review (Vol. 39, 1995)

(2)

Valerie M. Hudson. Foreign Policy Analysis: Actor-Specific Theory and the Ground
of International Relations, Foreign Policy Analysis (Vol. 1, No. 1; 2005)

(3)

Charles F. Hermann. Changing Course: When Governments Choose to Redirect


Foreign Policy, International Studies Quarterly (Vol. 34; 1990)

(Week-2) Historical and Theoretical Perspectives (17 October 2014)


(1)

Jeffrey Checkel. Ideas, Institutions, and the Gorbachev Foreign Policy Revolution,
World Politics (Vol. 45, No. 2; January 1993)

(2)

K.J. Holsti. Exceptionalism in American Foreign Policy: Is it exceptional?,


European Journal of International Relations (Vol. 17, No. 3; 2010)

(3-A)

Sebastian Rosato & John Schuessler. A Realist Foreign Policy for the United States,
Perspectives on Politics (Vol. 9, No.4; December 2011)

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(3-B)

Jonathan Kirshner. The Tragedy of Offensive Realism: Classical Realism and the
Rise of China, European Journal of International Relations (Vol. 18, No. 1; 2010)

(4)

Marijke Breuning. Roles and Realities: When and Why Gate-Keepers Fail to Change
Foreign Policy Foreign Policy Analysis (Vol. 9, No. 3; July 2013)

(5)

Feng Zhang. The Rise of Chinese Exceptionalism in International Relations,


European Journal of International Relations (Vol. 19. No. 2; 2011)

(Week-3) Rational Actor Model in Foreign Policy (24 October 2014)


(1)

Allison and Philip Zelikow. The Cuban Missile Crisis: First Cut in Essence of
Decision (New York: Longman, 2nd edition, 1999) chapter (2)

(2 A)

Ben D. Mor. Nassers Decision-Making in the 1967 Middle East Crisis: A Rational
Choice Explanation Journal of Peace Research (Vol. 28, No. 4; November 1991)

(2 B)

Carly Beckerman-Boy. Third Parties and the Arab-Israeli Conflict: Poliheuristic


Decision Theory and British Mandate Palestine Policy, Foreign Policy Analysis (Vol.
10, No. 3; July 2014)

(3 A)

Steven B. Redd. The Influence of Advisers and Decision Strategies on Foreign Policy
Choices: President Clintons Decision to Use Force in Kosovo, International Studies
Perspectives (Vol. 6; 2005)

(3 B)

David J. Brule. Explaining and Forecasting Leaders Decisions: A Poliheuristic


Analysis of the Iran Hostage Rescue Decision, International Studies Perspectives
(Vol. 6; 2005)

(Week-4) Bureaucracies and Foreign Policy (31 October 2014)


(1)

Steve A Yetiv. Testing the Government Politics Model: US Decision Making in the
1990-1991 Persian Gulf Crisis, Security Studies (Vol. 11, No. 2; Winter 2001)

(2)

Kevin Marsh. Obamas Surge: A Bureaucratic Politics Analysis of the Decision to


Order a Troop Surge in the Afghanistan War, Foreign Policy Analysis (Vol. 10, No. 3;
July 2014)

(3)

Allison and Philip Zelikow. The Cuban Missile Crisis: Second Cut in Essence of
Decision (New York: Longman, 2nd edition, 1999) chapter (6)

(Week-5) Groupthink in Foreign Policy (7 November 2014)


(1)

Steve A Yetiv. Groupthink and the Gulf Crisis, British Journal of Political Science
(Vol. 33, No.3; July 2003)

(2 A)

Scot MacDonald. Hitlers Shadow: Historical Analogies and the Iraqi Invasion of
Kuwait, Diplomacy and Statecraft (Vol. 13, No. 4; December 2002)

(2 B)

Paul Latawski. Invoking Munich, Expiating Suez: British Leadership, Historical


Analogy and the Falklands Crisis, in Stephen Badsey and at el. (ed.) The Falklands
Conflicts Twenty Years On: Lessons for the Future (London: Frank Cass, 2005)

(3)

Dina Badie. Groupthink, Iraq, and the War on Terror: Explaining US Policy Shift
toward Iraq, Foreign Policy Analysis (Vol. 6, No. 4; 2010)

(4)

Asaf Siniver & Jeffrey Collins. Airpower and Quagmire: Historical Analogies and the
Second Lebanon War, Foreign Policy Analysis (Vol. 9, No. 1; January 2013)

(Week-6) Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy (14 November 2014)


(1)

Jack Levy. Domestic Politics and War, Journal of Interdisciplinary History (Vol. 18,
No. 4; Spring 1988)

(2)

Benjamin I. Page and Jason Barabas. Foreign Policy Gaps between Citizens and
Leaders, International Studies Quarterly (Vol. 44, No. 3; September 2000)

(3)

Ole R. Holsti. Public Opinion and Foreign Policy, Making American Foreign Policy
(New York: Routledge, 2006), Chapter 10, pp. 237-268

(4)

Pavin Chachavalpongpun. Diplomacy under Siege: Thailands Political Crisis and the
Impact on Foreign Policy, Contemporary Southeast Asia (Vol. 31, No. 3; 2009)

(Week-7) Game Theories and Foreign Policy (21 November 2014)


(1)

Chien-Peng Chung. Resolving Chinas Island Disputes: A Two-Level Game Analysis,


Journal of Chinese Political Science (Vol. 12, No. 1; 2007)

(2)

Ma Ngok. The Sino-British Dispute over Hong Kong: A Game Theory Interpretation,
Asian Survey (Vol. 37, No. 8; August 1997)

(3)

Tomohito Shinoda. Searching for a Dream Plan: Two-Level Game Analysis of the
Futenma Relocation Issue Under the Hatoyama Cabinet, Japanese Journal of
Political Science (Vol. 15, No. 1; March 2015)

(4)

Raymond Birt. Personality and Foreign Policy: The Case of Stalin, Political
Psychology (Vol. 14, No. 4; 1993)

(Week-8) Decision-Making in International Political Crises (28 November 2014)


(1)

Robert J. Beck. Munichs Lessons Reconsidered, International Security (Vol. 14, No.
2; Fall 1989)

(2)

Scott D Sagan, The Origins of the Pacific War, Journal of Interdisciplinary History
(Vol. 18, No. 4; Spring 1988)

(3)

Steve A. Yetiv. The Absence of Grand Strategy: the United States in the Persian Gulf
1872-2005 (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2008), pp. 116-144

(4)

David Patrick Houghton. US Foreign Policy and the Iran Hostage Crisis (Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press, 2004) Chapter 3 & 5

(Week-9) Foreign Policy Making in Europe (5 December 2014)


(1)

Burcin Ulug-Eryilmaz. The myth of Europeanization of Turkish foreign policy: the


Cyprus debacle as a litmus test, Southeast European and Black Sea Studies (Vol. 14,
No. 3; 2014)

(2)

Nikolas K. Gvosdev & Christopher Marsh. Russian Foreign Policy: Interests, Vectors,
and Sectors (Washington D.C: CQ Press, 2014), Chapter 2, pp. 27-65

(3)

Yukiko Miyagi. Foreign Policy Making Under Koizumi: Norms and Japans Role in
the 2003 Iraq War, Foreign Policy Analysis (Vol. 5, No. 4; 2009)

(4)

Takashi Inoguchi. A call for a new Japanese foreign policy: the dilemmas of a
stakeholder state, International Affairs (Vol. 90, No. 4; July 2014)

(Week-10) Foreign Policy Making in the Third World (12 December 2014)
(1)

Lina Khatib. Qatars Foreign Policy: the Limit of Pragmatism, International Affairs
(Vol. 89, No. 2; 2013) pp. 417-431

(2)

He Kai & Feng Huiyun. Xi Jinpings Operational Code Beliefs and Chinas Foreign
Policy, Chinese Journal of International Politics (Vol. 6; 2013) pp. 209-231

(3)

Rohan Mukherjee & David M. Malone. Indian Foreign Policy and Contemporary
Security Challenges, International Affairs (Vol. 87, No. 1; 2011), pp. 87-104

(4)

Jurgen Ruland. Constructing Regionalism Domestically: Local actors and Foreign


Policymaking in Newly Democratized Indonesia, Foreign Policy Analysis (Vol. 10,
No. 2; April 2014)