Woodward (Probability and Theory of Errors) (1906)

LIBRARY
OF THE
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA.
MATHEMATICAL MONOGRAPHS.
EDITED BY
Mansfield Merriman and Robert S. Woodward.

Octavo, Cloth, $1.00 each.
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1.
HISTORY OF MODERN MATHEMATICS.

By DAVID EUGENE SMITH.
No. 2.
SYNTHETIC PROJECTIVE GEOMETRY.

By GEORGE BRUCE HALSTED.
No. 3.
DETERMINANTS.
By LAENAS GIFFORD WELD.
HYPERBOLIC FUNCTIONS.
No. 4.
By JAMES McMAHON.
No. 5.
HARMONIC FUNCTIONS.
By WILLIAM E. BYERLY.
No. 6.
No.
QRASSMANN S SPACE ANALYSIS.
By EDWARD W. HYDE.
PROBABILITY AND THEORY OF ERRORS.
7.
By ROBERT
S.
WOODWARD.
VECTOR ANALYSIS AND QUATERNIONS.
No. 8.
By ALEXANDER MACFARLANE.
No.
9.
DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS.
By WILLIAM WOOLSEY JOHNSON.

No. 10.
THE SOLUTION OF EQUATIONS.

By MANSFIELD MERRIMAN.
No. 11.
FUNCTIONS OF A COMPLEX VARIABLE.

By THOMAS
S. FISKE.
PUBLISHED BY
JOHN WILEY & SONS,

CHAPMAN & HALL,
NEW
Limited,
YORK.
LONDON.
MATHEMATICAL MONOGRAPHS.
EDITED BY
MANSFIELD MERRIMAN AND ROBERT
No.
S.
WOODWARD.
7.
PROBABILITY
AND
THEORY OF ERRORS
ROBERT
S.
WOODWARD,
PRESIDENT CARNEGIE INSTITUTION OF WASHINGTON.
FOURTH EDITION.
FIRST THOUSAND.
HE
ISIT
.
NEW YORK:
JOHN WILEY & SONS.
LONDON:
CHAPMAN & HALL,

1906.
LIMITED.
Astron.
COPYRIGHT,
1896,
BY
MANSFIELD MERRIMAN
AND
ROBERT
UNDER THE
T.I
S.
WOODWARD
LE
HIGHER MATHEMATI-CS.
First Edition, September, 1896.
Second Edition, January,

Third Edition, August,
Fourth Edition, January,
ROBKRT DRUMMOND, PRINTER,
1898.
1900.
1906.
NEW
YORK.
EDITORS PREFACE.
THE
of
volume called Higher Mathematics, the first edition

which was published in 1896, contained eleven chapters by
eleven authors, each chapter being independent of the others,

all supposing the reader to have at least a mathematical
but
training equivalent to that given in classical and engineering

The publication of that volume is now discontinued
colleges.
and the chapters are issued in separate form. In these reissues

will generally be found that the monographs are enlarged
by additional articles or appendices which either amplify the
former presentation or record recent advances. This plan of
publication has been arranged in order to meet the demand of
it
and the convenience
teachers
that
it
may
prove advantageous
mathematical
to
is
also thought
publishers and editors to add other

to time, if the call for the
to the series
from time
warrant
Among
to
it
readers in special lines of
literature.
It is the intention of the
monographs
same seems
of classes, but
it.
the topics which are under
consideration are those of elliptic functions, the theory of

bers, the group theory, the calculus oi variations, and
Euclidean geometry;
possibly also
non-
monographs on branches
astronomy, mechanics, and mathematical physics
of
may be included.
publication may
hope of the editors that this form of

promote mathematical study and research over a wider
than that which the former volume has occupied.
It is the
tend to
field
num
December, 1905.
iii
179989
AUTHOR S PREFACE.
IN republishing
solicits criticism
this short treatise in
but offers no apology.
book form the author

type of the book
The
he has sought
to imitate is that shown in the

mathematical
of the late Sir George B. Airy.
The brevity and the con
crete illustrations of these
tracts
have served very
tracts
"
"
"
"
effectively
in introducing students to a
number
of the
more
difficult fields
of applied mathematics; and it is hoped that this treatise will

serve a similar end.
The theory of probability and the theory of errors now con
stitute a formidable body of knowledge of
great mathematical
and of great practical importance. Though developed

largely through applications to the more precise sciences of as
tronomy, geodesy, and physics, their range of applicability extends
to all of the sciences; and they are plainly destined to
play an
increasingly important role in the development and in the appli
cations of the sciences of the future.
Hence their study is not
a
in
a
commendable
element
liberal
only
education, but some
knowledge of them is essential to a correct understanding of
interest
daily events.
No special novelty of presentation is claimed for this work;

but the reader may find it advantageous to know that a definite
plan has been followed. This plan consists in presenting each
principle, first, by means of a simple, concrete example; passing,
secondly, to a general statement by means of a formula; and,
thirdly, illustrating applications of the formula by concrete
Great pains have been taken also to secure clear and
examples.
If these latter are
correct statements of fundamental facts.
student
needs
the
little
additional aid; if
understood,
duly
they are not duly understood, no amount of aid will forward him.
The
passage from the elementary concrete to the advanced

may appear to be abrupt to the reader in some cases.
hoped, however, that any large gaps may be easily bridged
abstract
It is
difficulties may be easily overcome by means

of the references given to the literature of the subject.
In any
event the student will find that in this, as in all of the more ardu
ous sciences, his greatest pleasure and his highest discipline will
and that any serious
come from bridging such gaps and from surmounting such

culties.
WASHINGTON, D.
C.,
December, 1905.
diffi
CONTENTS.
ART.
i.
INTRODUCTION
2.
PERMUTATIONS
Page
3.
COMBINATIONS
13
4.
DIRECT PROBABILITIES
16
5.
PROBABILITY OF CONCURRENT EVENTS
6.
BERNOULLI
7.
INVERSE PROBABILITIES
8.
PROBABILITIES OF FUTURE EVENTS
27
9.
THEORY OF ERRORS
10.
LAWS OF ERROR
31
11.
TYPICAL ERRORS OF A SYSTEM
33
12.
LAWS OF RESULTANT ERROR
34
13.
ERRORS OF INTERPOLATED VALUES
37
14.
STATISTICAL
THEOREM
TEST OF THEORY
19
22
24
44
OF THE
NIVERSITY*

ART.
INTRODUCTION.
1.
a curious circumstance that a science so profoundly

mathematical as the theory of probability should have origi
IT
is
nated in the games of chance which occupy the thoughtless and

the profligate.* That such is the case is sufficiently attested
by the fact that much of the terminology of the science and
many
of its familiar illustrations are
drawn
directly from the
vocabulary and the paraphernalia of the gambler and the
trick
somewhat
surprising, also, considering the antiquity

of games of chance, that formal reasoning on the simpler
questions in probability did not begin before the time of Pascal
It is
ster.
Pascal was led to consider the subject during the

year 1654 through a problem proposed to him by the Chevalier
de Mere, a reputed gambler.f The problem in question is
and Fermat.
known
as the problem of points and may be stated as follows

two players need each a given number of points to win at a
:
certain stage of their
game
the stakes be divided
they stop at this stage, how should

Pascal corresponded with his friend
and it appears that the letters which
if
Fermat on this question

passed between them contained the
;
earliest distinct formulation
of principles falling within the theory of probability.
These
* The historical facts referred to in this article are drawn

mostly from Todhunter s History of the Mathematical Theory of Probability from the time of
Pascal to that of Laplace (Cambridge and London, 1865).
Un probleme relatif SLUX jeux de hasard, proposS aun austere janseniste
f
par un homme du monde, a ete 1 origine du calcul des probabilites." Poisson,
"
Recherches sur
la
Probability des Jugements (Paris, 1837).
acute thinkers, however, accomplished little more than a correct

start in the science.
Each seemed to rest content at the time
with the approbation of the other.

Pascal soon renounced
such mundane studies altogether Fermat had only the scant
;
busy with affairs to devote to mathematics;

and both died soon after the epoch in question, Pascal in
leisure of a life
1662,
and Fermat
in 1665.
subject which had attracted the attention of such dis

tinguished mathematicians could not fail to excite the interest
of their contemporaries and successors.
Amongst the former
He
has
the
the
most
noted.
honor of publishing
is
Huygens
treatise* on the subject.
contains only fourteen

propositions and is devoted entirely to games of chance, but it
gave the best account of the theory down to the beginning of
the
first
It
the eighteenth century, when it was superseded by the more elab

orate works of James Bernoulli,f Montmort,J and De Moivre.
Through the labors of the latter authors the mathematical
theory of probability was greatly extended. They attacked,

quite successfully in the main, the most difficult problems
and great credit
due them
energy and ability dis

in
a
seemed at the time to
science
which
developing
played
have no higher aim than intellectual diversion.] Their names,
undoubtedly, with one exception, that of Laplace, are the most
is
for the
important in the history of probability.

Since the beginning of the eighteenth century almost every
mathematician of note has been a contributor to or an expos
theory of probability. Nicolas, Daniel, and John
Bernoulli, Simpson, Euler, d Alembert, Bayes, Lagrange, Lam
bert, Condorcet, and Laplace are the principal names which
itor of the
figure in the history of the subject during the
*De
f
Ratiociniis in
Ludo
hundred years
Alese, 1657.
Ars Conjectandi, 1713.
JEssai d Analyse sur les Jeux de Hazards, 1708.

The Doctrine of Chances, 1718.
|j
Todhunter says of Montmort, for example, "In 1708 he published his

the courage of Columbus he revealed a new world
work on Chances, where with

to Mathematicians."
INTRODUCTION.
ending with the first quarter of the nineteenth century. Of

-contributions from this brilliant array of mathematical talent,
the Theorie Analytique des Probabilites of Laplace is by far
the most profound and comprehensive. It is, like his Mecanique Celeste in dynamical astronomy, still the most elabo
An idea of the grand scale of the

form*
may be gained by the facts that the
present
non-mathematical introductionf covers about one hundred and
and that, in spite of the extraordinary
fifty quarto pages
rate treatise on the subject.
work
in its
mathematical language, the pure theory and its ac

cessories and applications require about six hundred and fifty
brevity of
pages.
From
the epoch of Laplace
down
to the present time the
most noteworthy
-extensions of the science have been
in
the
fields of practical applications, as in the adjustment of obser

vations, and in problems of insurance, statistics, etc.
Amongst
most important of the pioneers in these fields should

be mentioned Poisson, Gauss, Bessel, and De Morgan. Nu
merous authors, also, have done much to simplify one or an
the
other branch of the subject and thus bring

of
elementary presentation.
it
within the range
The fundamental
principles of
the theory are, indeed, now accessible in the best text-books

on algebra and there are many excellent treatises on the pure
:
theory and
is
its
various applications.
the applications of the doctrine of probability none

In astronomy,
of greater utility than the theory of errors.
Of
all
every science which at

tains precision in measuring, weighing, and computing, a
knowledge of the theory of errors is indispensable. By the aid
geodesy, physics, and chemistry, as
in
of this theory the exact sciences have
*The form
Laplace
recently
republished under the auspices of the
Academic des Sciences by Gauthier-Villars.

*
Cette
great progress dur-
of the third edition published in 1820, and of Vol. VII of the
complete works of
made
Introduction,"
writes Laplace,
This Vol. VII bears the date 1886.

"est
le
developpement d une Lec.on
sur les Probabilites, que je donnai en 1795, aux Ecoles Normales, ou je fus ap-
pele
comme
Convention
professeur de Mathematiques avec Lagrange, par un decret de

nationale."
la
10
ing the nineteenth century, not only in the actual determination

of the constants of nature, but also in the fixation of clear
ideas as to the possibilities of future conquests in the

rection.
Nothing, for example,
is
more
same
di
and
in
satisfactory
structive in the history of science than the success with which

method of least squares has been applied to the
the
unique
problems presented by the earth and the other members of the
So great, in fact, are the practical value and
solar system.
theoretical importance of the
frequently mistaken for the
sometimes regarded
as
method
of least squares, that
whole theory
of
errors,
embodying the major part
it
and
of the
is
is
doc
trine of probability itself.
As may be
inferred from this brief sketch, the theory of
now constitute
probability and its more important applications
an extensive body of mathematical principles and precepts.
Obviously, therefore, it will be impossible within the limits of
a single condensed monograph to do more than give an out
It is hoped, how
line of the salient features of the subject.
of
the volume, that
ever, in accordance with the general plan
such outline
may come
will
prove suggestive and helpful to those who

first time, and also to those
to the science for the
who, while somewhat familiar with the difficulties to be overtome, have not acquired a working knowledge of the subject.
Effort has been made especially to clear up the difficulties of
the theory of errors by presenting a somewhat broader view of
the elements of the subject than is found in the standard
treatises, which confine attention almost exclusively to the
method
This chapter stops short of that

method, and seeks to supply those phases of the theory which
are either notably lacking or notably erroneous in works
of
least squares.
It is believed, also, that the elements here

hitherto published.
presented are essential to an adequate understanding of the
well-worked domain of least squares.*

*The
author has given a brief but comprehensive statement of the method

volume of Geographical Tables published by the Smith-
of least squares in the
sonion Institution, 1894.
PERMUTATIONS.
ART.
The formulas and

and combinations
are-
11
PERMUTATIONS.
2.
results of the
theory of permutations
often needed for the statement and so
This theory is now to be

found in most works on algebra, and it will therefore suffice
here to state the principal formulas and illustrate their mean
lution of problems in probabilities.
ing
by a few numerical examples.
The number
is
(*),
t,
of permutations of
;/
things taken r in a group
expressed by the formula
= n(n -
i)(n
2)
(n
- r+
i).
(i)
Thus, to illustrate, the number of ways the four letters a, b,

d can be arranged in groups of two 154.3
1 2
^ the groups
an<
>
are
ba,
ab,
ac,
da
ad,
ca,
be,
bd,
cb,
db,
cd,
dc.
Similarly, the formula gives for
n
n
=
=
The
"
10
= 2,
r = 3,
r = 6,
and r
"
results
(3),
(7).
=
=
=6,
3.2
7. 6.
=210,
(10)6=10.9.8.7.6.5 = 151200.
which follow from equation (i) when n and
do not exceed 10 each are embodied
in
the following table
VALUES OF PERMUTATIONS.
The
use of this table
is
mutations of eight things

fifth line of
obvious.
in
Thus, the number of per

is found in the
groups of five each
the column headed with the
number
8.
It will
be
12
noticed that the last two numbers in each column (excepting

same. This accords with the for
i) are the
that headed with
mula, which gives for the number of permutations of n things

in groups of n the same value as for n things in groups of
(n
It will also
i).
column of the table

head of the column.
number
last
The
in
is
total
be remarked that the

the factorial,
is
For example,
number
of
given by equation
it
found by summing the numbers

values of r from I to n.
Calling
will
be given by
(2)
2(n),.
To
illustrate, suppose n
3, and, to
three things be the three digits I, 2, 3.
it is
seen that
numbers
of
(all
Sp
= 3+6+6=
different)
15
fix
the ideas,
Then from
or,
the
let
the above
that the
number
which can be formed from those dig
These numbers are
its is fifteen.
7!.
etc., is
SP
table
the
7,
permutations of n things taken singly,
(i) for all
sum S^
number in each
number n at the
the column under
5040 =1.2.3.4.5.6.7 =
groups of two, three,
this total or
!,
in
last
of the
I, 2,
3;
12, 13, 21, 23, 31,
32;
123, 132, 213, 231, 312, 321.
= 1,2,... 10 are given under the

But when n is
the above table.
of
columns
corresponding
The
values of S, for n
large the direct
impracticable.
To
if
get
is
this,
summation indicated by (2) is tedious, if not

Hence a more convenient formula is desirable.
observe that
(i)
may be
restricted to integer values
inclusive.
This suffices to give
written
between
all
and
(n
i),
terms which appear
both
in
the
number of permutations
right-hand member of (2), since the
Hence it appears
for r = n.
for r = (n
i) is the same as
that
COMBINATIONS.
13
But as n increases, the series by which n is here multiplied

approximates rapidly towards the base of natural logarithms
\
that
is,
towards
e
Hence
2.7182818
+,
log e
= 0.4342945.
for large values of n
n\e, approximately.*
Sp
(3)
To
get an idea of the degree of approximation of (3), sup

Then the computation runs thus (see values in
n
9.
pose
the above table)
:
9!
log
362880
5. 5
0.4342945
9\e =
Sp =
The
597 6 30
986410
5-9940575
986409 by equation
error in this case
(2).
thus seen to be only one unit, or
is
about one-millionth of Sp.^

Prob. i. Tabulate a list of the numbers of three figures each
which can be formed from the first five digits i,
How many
5.
numbers can be formed from the nine digits ?
Prob. 2. Is Sp always an odd number for n odd?
Observe
.
SP
values of
in the table above.
ART.
3.
COMBINATIONS.
In permutations attention is given to the order of arrange

In combinations no regard is
of the things considered.
ment
Thus, the permutations of

paid to the order of arrangement.
the letters a, b, c, d\i\ groups of three are
(abc]
(abd)
bac
bad
acb
(acd)
cab
cad
adb
adc
dab
dac
bca
(bed)
cba
cbd
bda
bdc
dba
dbc
cda
cdb
dca
deb
* See Art. 6 for a formula for

computing n\
When
large
numbers
managed by logarithms,
Such tables are given
the
Encyclopaedia
(Vol.
I,
1849).
when n
is
a large number.
are to be dealt with, equations (i)
especially
if
and
a table of values of log (w!)
to six places in
Metropolitana, and
De Morgan
to
in
are easily
is
available.
on Probability in
Shortrede s Tables
treatise
five places
(3)
14
But
the order of arrangement is ignored all of these are

seen to be repetitions of the groups enclosed in parentheses,
namely, (abc), (abd), (acd), (bed}. Hence in this case out of
if
twenty-four permutations there are only four combinations.
A general
formula for computing the number of combina

tions of n things taken in groups of r things is easily derived.
For the number
by
of permutations of n things in groups of r
is
(i) of Art. 2
(n) r
n(n
and since each group
2)
i)(n
(n
of r things gives
i)
r\ per
mutations, the number of combinations must be the quotient
Then the gen
Denote this number by C(ri) r
of () r by r\.
I
eral
formula
is
= (*-!)(- 2)... (-r+
I)
(i)
This formula gives, for example, in the case of the four let
ters a, b, c, d taken in groups of three, as considered above,
Multiply both numerator and denominator of the right-hand
member
of (i)
by
(n
The
r)\
result
is
which shows that the number of combinations of n things in

groups of r is the same as the number of combinations of n
Thus, the number of combina
r).
things in groups of (n
tions of the
seven
first
ten letters
a, b, c
./
in
groups of three or
is
10
120.
The
following table gives the values C(n) r for
n and r from
all
values of
to 10.
The mode of using this table is evident. For example, the

number of combinations of eight things in sets of five each is
found on the
fifth line of
the column headed 8 to be $6.
COMBINATIONS.
15
VALUES OF COMBINATIONS.
It will
be observed that the numbers
a maximum
when n
values
from
value
(i)
is
odd.
is
which shows that
when r\ (n
a minimum for r = ^n
value of n
= \(n
values for r
maximum
any column show
in
even and two equal maximum

That this should be so is easily seen
when n
C(ri) r will
is
r)
while for n odd
and r
i)
be a
%(n +
of C(n) r
maximum
minimum.
it
i).
for
For n even
has equal
any
this
is
minimum
Thus,
for n even,
(2)
for
The
total
number
n odd.
of combinations of n things taken singly,
in groups of two, three, etc., is found by summing the numbers

given by (i) for all values of r from I to n both inclusive.
Calling this total or
The same sum

from
to (n
sum S
will also
i),
come from
creasing their aggregate by unity.
n(n
n-\
(i)
by giving
both inclusive, summing the
i)
OF THE
UNIVERS!
n(n
Thus by
i)(n
1.2.3
-3)
to
all
results,
values
and
either process
,
in
16
The second member

M
i.
Hence
(i + i)
of
this
equation
values of
evidently equal to
= 2-i.
S =2C(n) r
The
is
(3)
and r from
for values of n
to 10 are given
under the corresponding columns of the above
table.
Prob. 3. How many different squads of ten men each can be

formed from a company of 100 men ?
Prob. 4 How many triangles are formed by six straight lines
each of which intersects the other five ?
Examine
"
In dealing a pack of cards

statement
the number of hands, of thirteen cards each, which can be produced
But in whist four hands are simultaneously held,.
is 635 013 559 600.
Prob.
5.
and the number of

figures to express
this
distinct deals
would require twenty-eight
*
it."
Prob. 6. Assuming combination always possible, and disregarding

the question of proportions, find how many different substances
could be produced by combining the seventy-three chemical ele
ments.
ART.
If it is
trial
known
4.
DIRECT PROBABILITIES.
that one of
or instance, and that the
two events must occur in any

can occur in a ways and the
first
ways, all of which ways are equally likely to hap

pen, then the -probability that the first will happen is expressed
mathematically by the fraction a/(a-\-b], while the probability
second
in b
that the second will
happen
to be mutually exclusive.
q respectively.
Then
is
b/(a
Denote
-f- b).
Such events are
their probabilities
said
by p and
there result
the last equation following from the first two and being the
mathematical expression for the certainty that one of the two
events must happen.
Thus, to illustrate, in tossing a coin it must give head or

a = b = I, and p
Again, if an urn contain
q
1/2.
"
"
"
tail"
white and b
*
8 black balls, the probability of
Jevons, Principles of Science,
New
York, 1874,
p. 217.
drawing
DIRECT PROBABILITIES.
a white ball in one
black one
q=
Similarly,
8/13.
there are
in a, b, c
are given
a
q
is
ways
and
=6
respectively, their probabil
t>+c
+
..
an urn contain a
if
a.
by
+
For example,
5/13 and that of drawing
several mutually exclusive events-
if
which can occur

ities/, q, r
trial
17
+&+c+...
(2)
-*
=4
white,
=5
black,
red balls, the probabilities of drawing a white, black,

ball at a single trial are
4/i5, ^=5/15, and
and red
/>
6/15, respectively.
Formulas
and
be applied to a wide variety of

here to give only a few such. As a
first illustration, consider the probability of drawing at randoms
a number of three figures from the entire list of numbers which
but
cases,
it
(i)
must
(2)
may
suffice
first seven digits.

A glance at the
shows that the symbols of formula (i) have in
the values a = 210, and #-+-:=: 1 3699.
Hence
can be formed from the

table of Art.
this
tion
case
13489, and
is
= 210/13699
that
is,
the probability in ques
about 1/65.
Secondly, what is the probability of holding in a hand of

whist all the cards of one suit ? Formula (i) of Art. 3 shows
that the
may
number
of different
hands of thirteen cards each which,
be formed from a pack of fifty-two cards

52.51. 50... 40
i
.2.3...
and the probability required
The
probability against
= 6 35Qi3
13
is
is
559 600,
the reciprocal of this number;.
this event
is,
therefore, very nearly
unity.
Thirdly, consider the probabilities presented by the case of

an urn containing 4 white, 5 black, and 6 red balls, from which
at a single trial three balls are to be drawn.
Evidently the
triad of balls
drawn may be
all
white,
all
black,
all
red, partly
white and black, partly white and red, partly black and red, or
18
one each of the white, black, and
There are thus seven
red.
The theory
different probabilities to be taken into account.
of combinations shows (see equation
number
White
(i),
Art, 3) that the total
of
4.3.2
triads
Black triads
Red
6.5-4
9-8.7
triads
White and black
White and
triads
Black and red triads
White, black, and red triads
lo
20
=C
70
=d
-( 4+20) = 96
=^
6
6
6
10. 9
red triads
-( 4+10)=
= ii 10. 9
= 4.5.6
= 120 = g
Sum = 455
number of these triads is 455, and is, as it should

be, the number of combinations in groups of three each of the
whole number of balls. Hence formulas (2) give the seven
The
total
different probabilities
.w, b, r to indicate
For a
"
www
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
wwb
wwr
io/455,
20/455,
or wbb
or
70/455,
9 6 /455,
wrr
bbr or brr
wbr
letters
4/455,
bbb
rrr
"
"
initial
the colors represented in a triad
triad
"
which follow, using the
135/455,
v=
120/455.
three dice are thrown together, what is the prob

throw will be greater than 9 ?
Prob. 8. Write down a literal formula for the probabilities of the
several possible triads considered in the above question of the balls,
and red balls to be /, m, n,
supposing the numbers of white, black,
Prob.
7.
When
ability that the
respectively.
PROBABILITY OF CONCURRENT EVENTS.
ART.
19
5.
the probabilities of two independent events are /, and

concurrence in any
respectively, the probability of their
If
Thus, suppose there are two urns

black
which contains a white and
single instance is p,p v

and /2 the first of
balls,
and the second # a white and b t black
probability of drawing a white ball from

while that of drawing a white ball from
The total number

from the entire number
a^
of balls
is
(a
-f-
Then the
balls.
isp
/2
of different pairs of balls
pairs
aj(a^
is/ a
,)..
#,)(#
Of these
&,)
are favorable to the concurrence of white in simul
Hence the
= a a /(a b^)(a^ +
= (aj)^ + #A)/(X + î)(#a +
white with white
white with black

black with black
and the sum of these
bJ>J(a^
-f-
&,),
-f
^)(> 2
unity, as required
is
^)>
&,),
by equations
(2)
of
4.
In general,
if
/ / p
15
independent events, and

concurrence,
To
,),
which can be formed
taneous or successive drawings from the two urns.

probability of a concurrence of
Article
= aj(a^ +
denote the probabilities of several

denote the probability of theii
^ = AAA-.
suppose there is required the

probability of getting three aces with three dice thrown simul
In this case/\
3
taneously.
1/6 and
illustrate this formula,
P=(i/6)
Similarly,
=/
two dice are thrown simultaneously the proba

of the numbers shown will be 11 is 2/36;
sum
and the probability that

sive throws of the same
The
1/216.
if
bility that the
will
=/>
this
sum
1 1
pair of dice
will
is
appear
in
two succes
4/36.36.
probability that the alternatives of a series of events-
concur
is
Q =
evidently given bv
?,?,?,
- (i - A)(i - A)(i -A) ^

-
(2)
the case of the three dice mentioned above, the

Thus,
probability that each will show something other than an ace is
in
^0
= & = ?i = 5/6, and the
#1
this
is
probability that they will concur in
125/216.
Many cases of interest occur for

One of the most important of
(2).
cessive trials of the
may happen
in
same event.
trials of
the application of (i) and

these is furnished by suc
Consider, for example, what

for which the probability
an event
p and
against which the probability is

that the event will occur every time is/ M
is
The
q.
The
probability
probability that
the event will occur (n

i) times in succession and then fail is
n ~
But
if the order of occurrence is
q.
disregarded this last
l
j>
-combination
may arrive
in
n different ways so that the prob

i) times and fail once is
;
ability that the event will occur (n

n
?ip
q.
2)
Similarly, the probability that the event will
times and
fail
twice
is
\n(n
i)
ll
~
Y"5
etc
happei>
That
is,
the probabilities of the several possible occurrences are given by

.the corresponding terms in the development of (p -j- #)*
it
By the same reasoning used to get equations (2) of Art.

may be shown that the maximum term in the expansion
of (p -j- q) n is that in which the exponent m, say, of q is

the whole number lying between (#-f- i)q
I and
(n -\- i)q.
In other words, the most probable result in n trials is the
of the event (n
m) times and its failure m
occurrence
times.
When
is
large this
means that the most probable
all possible results is that in
= n(i
of
which the event occurs n
nq
the event
Thus, if
np times and fails nq times.
be that of throwing an ace with a single die the most probable
of the possible results in 600 throws is that of loo aces and
500
q)
failures.
Since q n is the probability that the event will fail every time
in n trials, the probability that it will occur at least once in n
*
n
trials is i
Calling this probability r
q
.
r= \-q =
n
-(i
-/)".
(3)
If r in this equation be replaced by i/2, the corresponding

value of n is the number of trials essential to render the
* See Poisson
Probabilit6 des Jugements, pp. 40, 41.
21
chances even that the event whose probability is/ will occur
at least once.
Thus, in this case, the value of n is given by
log 2
(I-/)
log
This shows, for example, if the event be the throwing of double

sixes with two dice, for which p
1/36, that the chances are
even
1/2) that in 25 throws (n =. 24.614
(r
double sixes
will
by the formula)
at least once.
appear
shows that however small/ may
be, so long as
Equation (3)
it is finite, n may be taken so large as to make r approach in
definitely near to unity that is, n may be so large as to render
it practically certain that the event will occur at least once.
;
When
is
large
1.2
e~ np
Thus an approximate
r
1.2.3
approximately.
value of r
*->,
is
log e
= 0.4342495.
(4)
This formula gives, for example, for the probability of drawing

the ace of spades from a pack of fifty-two cards at least once in
I
e~*
0.865, while the exact formula (3)
104 trials r
gives 0.867.
Similarly, the probability of the occurrence of the event at
least / times in n trials will
of (p
bility
the event will occur
times only
expressed by the single term

Prob.
five
be given by the sum of the terms
n
n
inclusive.
This proba
q] from p up to that in p q
must be carefully distinguished from the probability that
-4-
Compare the
9.
in
in
t
pq
the n
trials,
the latter being
n~ t
.
probability of holding exactly four aces in

at least four aces
hands of whist with the probability cf holding
in the
same number of hands.
Prob.
even that
What is the probability of an event if the chances are

occurs at least once in a million trials ? See equation (4).
10.
it
ZZ
ART.
BERNOULLI
6.
THEOREM.
Denote the exponents of p and q in the maximum term

n
(P
4) ky /* an d ^ respectively, and denote this term by
of
71
Then
n(n
i}(n
2)
(p
-\-
m\
}A,\mY
As shown in Art. 5, /* in this formula is the greatest whole

number in (n -\- i}p, and m the greatest whole number in
(n
when n
so that
i)q-,
to np
is
p and
large,
are sensibly equal
and nq respectively.
The
direct calculation of
To overcome
is
large.
is
used *
(i) is
by
impracticable
when n
this difficulty the following expression
(2)
= 0.4342495,
log e
log 27r
= 0.7981799.
This expression approaches n n e~ n V2nn as a limit with the

increase of n, and in this approximate form is known as Stir
theorem.
Although a rude approximation to n for

small values of n this theorem suffices in nearly all cases
ling s
wherein such probabilities as

the theorem in (i)
That
n
this
small
is
is
it
T are
desired.
Making use
of
becomes
formula affords a
fair
approximation even when
seen from the case of a die thrown 12 times.
The
probability that any particular face will appear in one throw is

1/6, whence q
5/6; and the most probable result in 12
p
throws
fails
is
that in
wWch
puted from
The
(3) is
the particular face appears twice and
The
probability of this result com

0.309, while the exact formula (i) gives 0.296.
to appear ten times.
probability that the event will occur a
* This
expression
See also De Morgan
is
due
to
number
of times
Laplace, Theorie Analytique des Probabilites.
Calculus, pp. 600-604.
BERNOULLI
comprised between
THEOREM.
a) and
+ a)
23
in
trials is
evidently
n
expressed by the sum of the terms in (p -j- q] for which the
exponent of/ has the specified range of values. Calling this
(/*
(yu
probability R, putting
p.
and using
number),*
np
Stirling s
m=
and
-f- u,
nq
u,
theorem (which implies that n
is
a large
nq
very nearly and the summation is with respect to u from
But expansion shows that the natural
u
a to u
-\- a.
of
the
product of the two binomial factors in this
logarithm
;
equation
is
approximately
u*/2npq.
Hence
R=
}2 nnpq
and, since n
is
supposed
large, this
may be
replaced by a definite
integral, putting
dz
and
\/^2npq,
z*
= u*/2npq.
Thus
This equation expresses the theorem of James Bernoulli,

given in his Ars Conjectandi, published in 1713.
The
value of the right-hand
member
of (4) varies, as
it
i, and approaches the latter limit rap

Thus, writing for brevity
should, between o and

idly as z increases.
e~ *dz*
* See
Bertrand, Calcul des Probabilites, Paris, 1889, for an extended discus
sion of the questions considered in this Article.
24
the following table shows the march of the integral
To
the use of (4), suppose there is required the

in
that
6000 throws of a die the ace will appear a
probability
number of times which shall be greater than 1/6 X 6000
10
and less than 1/6 X 6000
10, or a number of times lying
between 990 and 1010. In this case a
10, n
6000, /
1/6,
illustrate
Thus, a/V2npq = 10/^2 6000

5/6.
q
Hence, by (4) and the table, R = 0.27.
.
1/6
5/6
0.245.
Prob. ii. If the ratio of males to females at birth
is 105 to 100,
the probability that in the next 10,000 births the number of
males will fall within two per cent of the most probable number?
what
is
is even for head and tail in tossing a

what is the probability that in a million throws the difference
between heads and tails will exceed 1500 ?
Prob. 12. If the chance
coin,
ART.
7.
INVERSE PROBABILITIES.*
an observed event can be attributed to any one of several

causes, what is the probability that any particular one of these
If
causes produced the event ? To put the question in a concrete

form, suppose a white ball has been drawn from one of two
urns,
containing 3 white and 5 black balls, and cT, contain

and 4 black balls and that the probability in favor
ing 2 white
of
each urn
is
required.
If
is
as
likely to
have been
was chosen is 1/2. After

the probability that
is
such choice the probability of drawing a white ball from
chosen as
/"
3/8.
Before drawing, therefore, the probability of getting a
was 1/2 X 3/8

3/16, by Art. 5.
Similarly,
7,
before drawing the probability of getting a white ball from /,
white ball from
was 1/2
changed
X
if
These probabilities will remain un

1/6.
2/6
the number of balls in either urn be increased or
* See Poisson, Probabilite des

Jugements, pp. 81-83.
INVERSE PROBABILITIES.
25
diminished so long as the ratio of white to black balls is kept

Make these numbers the same for the two urns.
constant.
Thus
the
let
contain 9 white and 15 black, and the second

whence the above probabilities may be
first
8 white and 16 black
x 9/24 and 1/2
written 1/2
now
It is
8/24.
seen that there
the production of a white ball,

-f- 8) cases favorable to
each of which has the same antecedent probability, namely, 1/2.
Since the fact that a white ball was drawn excludes considera
are (9
tion of the black balls, the probability that the white ball came
and the sum
from
is 9/17 and that it came from U^ is 8/17
of these
To
unity, as
is
it
should be.
m causes, C C
generalize this result, let there be
Denote
their direct probabilities
probabilities
by r
t ,
ra
on the supposition
That is,
of
A=&
D be the
Let
rm
lt
t,
Cm
q m their antecedent
by q lt q t
and their resultant probabilities
separate
existence
A = qs
.../
common denominator
p^pv
by
= q m rm
/,
(l)
of the right-hand
mem
and denote the corresponding numerators of the

several fractions by s lt s tt
sm
Then
bers in
(i),
A=
and
sJD,
A = VA
seen that there are
is
it
in all
possible cases, and that of these s
C99
Hence,
if
lt
P^
Pm
A.
= sJD
(^, -f-
s z -f-
s m ) equally
are favorable to
lt
s^
to
denote the probabilities of
the several causes on the supposition of their coexistence,
Thus
in
general
p = pj^p, P =
9
To
illustrate the
meaning
concrete case of the urns

for
U^
for
whence
and
As
pjy.p,
it
...Pm
= p m /^p.
of these formulas
suffices to
by the above
observe that
= 3/8 and r = 1/2,

= 1/3 and r, = 1/2
q^
p = 3/16, / = 1/6, /,+/,=
q
(2)
17/48
a second illustration, suppose
it
is
known
that a white
26
ball has
balls,
been drawn from an urn which originally contained
What
is
some
them being
of
black,
if all
are not white.
the probability that the urn contained exactly n white balls?

The facts are consistent with
different and equally probable
hypotheses (or causes), namely, that there were I white and

(m
i) black balls, 2 white and (in
2) black balls, etc
Hence
in (i),
/,
^=
=
= and
=
p = n/m,
/
2/m,
2/= (i/2)(w+i),
P^=
i/m,
â
and
This shows, as
i,
Thus
for
evidently should, that n

in the urn.
it
probable number of white balls

for this number is Pm = 2/(m -fto
i),
p m - m/m.
m
The
the most
is
probability
which reduces, as
it
ought,
I.
(i) and (2) may also be applied to the problem of

the
probability of the occurrence of an event from
estimating
the concurrent testimony of several witnesses,
X^ .
Formulas
v ,
Denote the
x xv
probabilities that the witnesses tell the truth by

Then, supposing them to testify independently,
the probability that they will concur in the truth concerning

while the probability that they will con
the event is x^x^
.
cur in the only other alternative, falsehood,
The two
(i)
and
if
-*,)(!-*.)...
to
that against the event.
the chances are 3 to

that JT2 tells the truth, x^
illustrate (3),
truth and
P1=
a)
being the probability for and
To
(2)
(I
I
#",)(
Hence by equations
alternatives are equally possible.
is (i
if
the chances are 15 to

in
asserting that it did.*
they agree
15/16;
or,
that
3/4,
x^ =
tells
the
5/6,
and
that an event occurred
* For some
interesting applications of equations (-) -ee note E of Appendix
tO the Ninth Bridgewater Treatise by Charles Babbage (London, 1838).
PROBABILITIES OF FUTURE EVENTS.

It is of theoretical interest to
(3)
number
of witnesses
is
observe that
are each greater than 1/2,
27
if
x lt
x^,
unity as
approaches
in
the
indefinitely increased.
Prob. 13. The groups of numbers of one figure each, two figures
each, three figures each, etc., which it is possible to form from the
nine digits i, 2, ... 9 are printed on cards and placed severally in
nine similar urns. What is the probability that the number 777 will
be drawn in a single
the urns
by a person unaware of the contents of
trial
How many
Prob. 14.
are essential to
ART.
make
witnesses whose credibilities are each 3/4

0.999 i n equation (3)
8.
Equations
may be
of Art. 7
(2)
written in the following
manner:
(l\
^P
are found by observation, lt />,... m will ex

press the probabilities of the corresponding causes or their
effects.
When, as in the case of most physical facts, the num
If A,/,,,
pm
ber of causes and events
or
in (i)
becomes
is
indefinitely great, the value of
indefinitely small,
and the value of
any
2p
must be expressed by means of a definite integral. Let x de

note the probability of any particular cause, or of the event to
which it gives rise. Then, supposing this and all the other
causes mutually exclusive, (i
x) will be the probability
Now
event.
the
suppose it has been observed that in
against
(;
+n
cases the event in question has occurred
failed n times.
Art.
it
cx m (i
5,
all
x)
probability of such a concurrence is, by

where c is a constant. Since x is unknown,
to have
any value within the
limits
such values are a priori equally possible.

n
cx m (\
y
x)
Then
times and
The
may be assumed
and
;;/
and
evidently the probability that
signed possible limits a
o and
Put
is
will fall
within any as
expressed by the fraction
28
so that the probability of any particular
is
given by
P = T-*y**.
/
may be
This
xm (\
x]
dx
regarded as the antecedent probability of the
cause or event in question.
What then is the probability that in the next (r -f- s] trials

the event will occur r times and fail s times, if no regard is had
of the order of occurrence?
If x were known, the answer
would be by Arts.
But since x
is
and
restricted only
probability will be found
by the condition
(2),
by taking the product
and integrating throughout the range of
the required
of (2)
and
(3)
Thus, calling the
x.
required probability Q,
Cxm+r(\
x)
n+ s
dx
4
,\
xm
x)
(\
dx
The
definite integrals
functions.
the
They
Integral
which appear here are known as
are discussed in
Calculus.
all
Gamma
of the higher treatises
on
Applying the rules derived in such
treatises there results *
regard is had to the order of occurrence of the event

the probability required is that of the event happen
in succession and then failing s times in succession,
times
r
ing
If
that
is, if
It is
a remarkable fact that formula (5)
values of m, n,
tions, as
r, s.
The formula may be
was done by Prevost and
is
true without restriction as to
established by elementary considera
Lhuilier, 1795.
he Theory of Probability, pp. 453~457-
See Todhunter
History oi
the factor (r
+ s)l/r\sl
in (3), (4), (5)
29
must be replaced by
unity.
To
illustrate these formulas,
has happened
ability that
it
suppose
What
occur at the next trial?
will
that the event
first
times and failed no times.
the prob
In this case (4)
is
gives
i
m
Q = fx^dx I fx dx = (m +
i)/(m
2).
When m is large this probability is nearly unity. Thus, the

sun has risen without failure a great number of times m the
;
probability that
which
is
to-morrow
will rise
it
is
I.
practically
Secondly, suppose an urn contains white and black balls in

If in ten trials 7 white and 3 black balls
an unknown ratio.
are drawn,
what
is
the probability that in the next five trials
be drawn? The application of

ratio
of
the
white
and black balls in the urn
the
(5) supposes
This will follow if the balls are replaced
to remain constant.
after each drawing, or if the number of balls in the urn is sup
and
2 white
3 black balls will
infinite.
posed
m = 7,
m T = 9,
-j-
The data
give
n = 3,
r =
n -f- s = 6, r + s =
m n -\-r-\-s-\-i =
-\-
Thus by
5,
m+
+ =
I
3,
n>
16.
(5)
5
of
2,
!6!n!
Suppose there are two mutually exclusive events, the first

which has happened m times and the second n times in
m -f- n
trials.
What
occurrence of the
tion
is
rator
is
first
the probability that the chance of the
exceeds 1/2
given directly by equation
between the specified
(2)
The answer
to this ques
by integrating the nume

That is,
limits of x.
30
/V(i
x n dx
I and n
Thus, if m
o, P
3/4 or the odds are three to
one that the event is more likely to happen than not. Simi
larly,
if
the event has occurred
P=
times in succession,
(1/2)"+
which approaches unity rapidly with increase of
ART.
9.
n.
THEORY or ERRORS.
The theory of errors may be defined as that branch of math

ematics which is concerned, first, with the expression of the re
sultant effect of one or more sources of error to which com
puted and observed quantities are subject and, secondly, with
the determination of the relation between the magnitude of
;
an error and the probability of its occurrence. In the case of

computed quantities which depend on numerical data, such as
tables of logarithms, trigonometric functions, etc.,
it is usually
to
ascertain
the
actual
values
of
the
resultant
errors.
possible
In the case of observed quantities, on the other hand, it is not
generally possible to evaluate the resultant actual error, since

the actual errors of observation are usually unknown. In either
however, it is always possible to write down a symbolical

expression which will show how different sources of error enter
and affect the aggregate error and the statement of such an
case,
expression
To
of fundamental importance in the theory of errors.
is
the ideas, suppose a quantity

several independent quantities x, y, z
fix
Q=f(*,y,
and
in
let it
Q
;
to be a function of
that
z--)>
be required to determine the error
x, y, z
Denote such
is,
errors
in
due to errors
by AQ, Ax, Ay, Az
Then, supposing the errors so small that their squares, prod

ucts, and higher powers may be neglected, Taylor s series gives
LAWS OF ERROR.
31
This equation may be said to express the resultant actual error

of the function in terms of the component actual errors, since
the actual value of
x, y, z
AQ
are known.
quantities x,
It
is
known when
the actual errors of
should be carefully noted that the
are supposed subject to errors which are
independent of one another. The discovery of the independent

is sometimes a matter of difficulty, and in general
sources of error
requires close attention on the part of the student
avoid blunders and misconceptions.
he would
if
Every investigator in work
of precision should have a clear notion of the error-equation of

the type (i) appertaining to his work; for it is thus only that
he can distinguish between the important and unimportant

sources of error.
Prob. 15. Write out the error-equation in accordance with (i)
Q xyz -f x* log (y/z).
for the function
Prob.
in a
due
6.
In a plane triangle a/b
to errors in
b,
sin
A/sin B.
Find the error
A, and B.
Prob. 17. Suppose in place of the data of problem 16 that the

angles used in computation are given by the following equations
:
A = A +$(i*o-A - B,- Q, B = B, + I(i8o - A -B - C,),

where A j& lt C are observed values. What then is Aa
Prob. 8. If w denote the weight of a body and r the radius of
l
lt
the earth, show that for small changes in altitude,
Aw/w^= 2Ar/r\
whence, if a precision of one part in 500000000 is attainable in com
paring two nearly equal masses, the effect of a difference in altitude
of one centimeter in the scale-pans of a balance will be noticeable.*
ART.
law of error
10.
LAWS OF ERROR.
a function which expresses the relative

frequency of occurrence of errors in terms of their magnitudes.
is,
Thus, using the customary notation,
let e
denote the magni-
* This
problem arose with the International Bureau of Weights and Measures,
whose work of intercomparison of the Prototype Kilogrammes attained a pre
cision indicated by a probable error of 1/500 ooo oooth part of a kilogramme.
tude of any error in a system of possible errors. Then the law

of such system may be expressed by an equation of the form
(0
0(0-
Representing e as abscissa and y as ordinate, this equation

gives a curve called the curve of frequency, the nature of which,
This
as is evident, depends on the form of the function 0.
equation gives the relative frequency of occurrence of errors in
the system so that if e is continuous the probability of the
;
occurrence of any particular error
is
expressed byj/de
<fr(e)de\
which is infinitesimal, as it plainly should be, since in any con
tinuous system the number of different values of e is infinite.
Consider the simplest form of 0(e), namely, that in which

This form of 0(e) obtains in the case of
c, a constant.
0(e)
the errors of tabular logarithms, natural trigonometric func

In this case all errors between minus a half-unit
tions, etc.
and plus a half-unit of the last tabular place are equally likely
to occur.
Suppose, to cover the class of cases to which that
a and -\- a
just cited belongs, all errors between the limits
are equally likely to occur.
error will then be
abilities,
<f>(e)de
by equation
(2),
The
probability of any individual

cde, and the sum of all such prob
Art.
4,
must be
+a
C(f)(e)de
This gives
=
D
unity.
That
is,
+a
c
Cde
I.
(2)
by (i) y = i/2#. The curve

quency in this case is shown in the
1/20, or
of fre
figure,
AB
It
being the axis of e and OQ that of y.

is evident from this diagram that if the
errors of the system be considered with

respect to magnitude only, half of them
should be greater and half less than a/2.

This is easily found to be so in the case of
tabular logarithms, etc.
As a second illustration of
by the
relation
jy
= c Vo*
a
,
(i),
suppose
where a
is
y and
connected
the radius of a
circle,
TYPICAL ERRORS OF A SYSTEM.

c a constant,
Then
and
value between
may have any
33
a and 4-
a.
the condition
+a
-e =
cj de Va
2
_ a
the preceding case, 0(+ e)

is
that positive and negative
of
which
the
meaning
0(
e),
It
errors of the same magnitude are equally likely to occur.
gives c
will
In
2/(c?7i).
this, as in
be noticed, however, that
in
the latter case small errors
have a much higher probability than those near the limit a r

while in the former case all errors have the same probability.
In general,
/
tion
when
=.
<p(e)de
0(_
value of
continuous 0(e) must satisfy the condi
the limits being such as to cover the entire
I,
range of values of e.
those in which 0(e)
0(_^_ e)
is
The
is
most commonly met with are

an even function, or those in which
cases
In such cases,
e).
e,
C<t>(e}de
11.
a denote the limiting
= 2 /V(eXe =
-%
ART.
if
I.
(3);
TYPICAL ERRORS OF A SYSTEM.
Certain typical errors of a system have received special

designations and are of constant use in the literature of the
These special errors are the probable error,

the mean error, and the average error. The first is that error
of the system of errors which is as likely to be exceeded as
theory of errors.
not
of
all
the second
the errors
is
;
the square root of the mean of the squares

is the mean of all the errors
and the third
Confining attention to systems in

which positive and negative errors of the same magnitude
regardless of their signs.
are equally probable, these typical errors are defined

Let
matically as follows.
ep
the probable error,
em
the
ea =
the average error.
mean
error,
mathe
34
Then, observing
of Art. 10,
(2),
(e)de =J*(j)(e)de
f<p(e)de
=J^(e)de
+
>
(0
ea
2
f</>(e)e<te.
The student should seek

prehension
*
of the
meaning
the most probable
the actual
to avoid the very
error,"
but
common
of the probable error.
nor
"
misap
It is
not
the most probable value of
that error which, disregarding signs,

would occupy the middle place if all the errors of the system
few illustrations will
were arranged in order of magnitude.
error";
it is
Thus, take the

which
applies to tabular
i/2a,
give at once
suffice to fix the ideas as to the typical errors.
simple case wherein 0(e)

logarithms, etc.
Equations
For the case
Hence
0(e)
- VJ,
ea
= 0.5
-a.
in units of
the last
for such values

em
o.25,
Prob. 19. Find

is
(i)
of tabular values, a
e,=
of error
em
-*,
6?/=
tabular place.
=c=
=0.29,
ea
-=o.2$.
the typical errors for the cases in
= ca*
which the law
c being a constant to be determined in each case and e having any

a.
a and
value between
ART.
When
12.
LAWS OF RESULTANT ERROR.
several independent sources of error conspire to pro

error, as specified by equation (i) of Art. 9,
duce a resultant
presented the problem of determining the law of the

resultant error by means of the laws of the component errors.
there
is
The
algebraic statement of this problem

for the case of continuous errors
is
obtained as follows
In the equation
(i),
Art.
9,
write for brevity
LAWS OF RESULTANT ERROR.

and
fii(
the laws of error of
let
Then
02( e a)
i)>
e,
e lt e a
the value of e
35*
be denoted by 0(e),
given by
is
=, + *.+
CO
The
probabilities of the occurrence of any particular values

and the
et , . . . are given by 1 ( e ,Ke i,
;
a (e1 )dfe a
of e l9
probability of their concurrence is the probability of the cor

responding value of e. But since this value may arise in an
infinite
number
of
of e lt e a
ways through the variations
over their ranges, the probability of

(e )ê
expressed by the integral of
or
e,
<J)(e)de,
be
will
>
>
the restriction
de
= de
This latter gives e
(i).
(e a )ê a
ea
subject
e,
Hence there
(j)(e)de
for the multiple integration with respect to e a
.,
e,,
to>
and
.
results
=
dej*
0,(e
- e, - e, -
or
0(e)
yê-e, -*,-..
It is readily
f&
.)&(&**
seen that this formula will increase rapidly in
complexity with the number of independent sources of
For some
ever,
it
most important
of the
error.*"
practical applications,
how
two inde
suffices to limit equation (2) to the case of
pendent sources of error, each of constant probability within

Thus, to consider this case, let e vary over
assigned limits.
b to -f- b~
to
the range
a
-j- #, and e2 vary over the range
l
Then by equation
(2),
^(e,)
Hence equation
In
6,
of
evaluating
e2
(2)
Art. 10,
i/(2a),
0,(e,)
i/(2b).
becomes
this
integral
must not surpass
ea
a.
must not surpass

b and
a
the
limits
b,
Assuming
>
the integral for any value of e

b and
(# -f- #) and
(a
b) are
+ (e
ea
lying
-f- a).
between
This fact
is
* The reader desirous of

pursuing this phase of the subject should consult
Bessel s Untersuchungen ueber die Wahrscheinlichkeit der Beobachtungsfehler;
Abhandlungen von Bessel
(Leipzig, 1876), Vol. II.
36
made
<a
Take
by a numerical example.
Then
(a
3.
b) =
a
number
intermediate
6,
plain
and
e
For instance, suppose

and
(a
3.
b)
8
to
the following are the possible integer values

will produce e =
6
and
of e a
Then
3.
and
ea
which
ea
ex
limits of e 2
-6= - - = + (e + a),
= -4-2,
= -3-3, - 3 = - *
i,
Similarly, the
(a
b)
and
are
e a for values of e between 4- (#
and
--
&
for
Thus
it
and
and the
<;
limits of
-\-(fi-\-b) are
-j-
is
IIOII
101
"
<
<
for
in this case
the graph of the resultant
11T
,
4.U
J J1
axis of e and the line joining the middle
points of the bases being the axis of 0(e).
.
! ! !
(See the
.
first
/
The propfigure in Art. 13.)

l
J
..i
J
4
determination
.-
erties of (3), including the
of the limits, are also illustrated
IIIIIIIOIIIIIII
(3)
represented by the upper base and the two sides

of a trapezoid, the lower base being the
IIIIIOI IIII
III II
a)
(e
appears that
of error
1 J 1
$)
~ ~*
f ~
âb I
"law
and
Hence
for
between
e a for values of e lying
limits of
+ (0
,.
by the
adiacent trapezoid of numerals arranged

IIIOIIIIIIH
to represent the case wherein a
0.5 and
0.3.
The
êver, conform
vertical scale, or that for 0(e), does not,
exactly to that for
e.
how-
ERRORS OF INTERPOLATED VALUES.
37
Prob. 20. Prove that the values of 0(e) as given by equation (3)
in equation (3), Art. 10.
satisfy the condition specified
Prob. 21. Examine equations (3) for the cases wherein a
= and
and interpret for the latter case the first and last of (3).
Prob. 22. Find from (3), and (i) of Art. n, the probable error of
the sum of two tabular logarithms.
= o;
ART.
C ase
13.
One
I.
of the
most instructive cases to which formulas
(3) of Art. 12 are applicable
is
that of interpolated logarithms,
trigonometric functions, etc., dependent on first differences.

Thus, suppose that v and v9 are two tabular logarithms, and
l
that
required to get a value v lying
it is
from v towards vf
if
e lt
e,
denote the actual errors of v v^
e^
spectively,
It
is
tenths of the interval
Evidently
and hence
-tfc
v^
re
(i)
te,.
to be carefully noted here that e as given by (i) re

retention in v of at least one decimal place be
the
quires
yond the last tabular place.
from a 5-place table.
v
2
+0.00017,
found from a 7-place
z-
For example,
Then
= 0.3,
table, e l
let
4.38686,
and v =4.38691.1.
0.45,
e.2
-|~
0.37 in units of
e=
The reader
= 4.38703,
Likewise, as
That
the fifth place; and hence by (i)

0.20.
actual error of v
0.20, and this
4.38691.1 is
reference to a 7-place table.
log (24373)
a
is
is,
verified
the
by
also cautioned against mistaking the species
is
of interpolated values here considered for the species
common
ly used by computers, namely, that in which the interpolated

value is rounded to the nearest unit of the last tabular place.
The
latter species
is
discussed under Case II below.
Confining attention now to the class of errors specified by

equation (i), there result in the notation of the preceding
article
el
and since
= (it)e
el
and
e^
lt
e^^=te^
and
=e=e
-f-
62
each vary continuously between the limits
38
0.5 of a unit of the last tabular place,

(3) of that article
Hence the law
0(e)
0.5(1
of error of the interpolated values
ex
is
= -for values of e betw.

_ fit
equations
b =o.$t.
/),
for values of e betw.
in
have the values

a
pressed as follows
a and b
0.5
(0.5
/)
and
(0.5
/),
and
-{-(0.5
/),
betw +(-5
values of
erates to an isosceles triangle
(2)
and
The graph of 0(e) for t = 1/3 is shown by the

AB, BC, CD in the figure on page 40. Evidently
tions (2) are in general represented
trapezoid
the equa
by a trapezoid, which degen
when
1/2.
The
probable, mean, and average errors of an interpolated

value of the kind in question are readily found from (2), and
from equations (i) of Art. 1 1, to be
for
=
=
1/2
(1/2X24
/)
o/ J~
for .1/3
for 2/3
1/4
<
<t
<
<
2/3,
i.
(3)
I
(I
- 2t)
for
for
thus seen that the probable error of the interpolated

value here considered decreases from 0.25 to 0.15 of a unit of
It is
the
last
tabular place as
who
more
increases from o to 0.5.
Hence such
precise than tabular values and the computer

desires to secure the highest attainable precision with a
values are
given table of logarithms should retain one additional figure

beyond the last tabular place in interpolated values.
ERRORS OF INTERPOLATED VALUES
39
Recurring to the equation v = v -{- t(v t

^,) for an
value
v
in
terms
of
two
consecutive
tabular
values
interpolated
v and v^ it will be observed that if the quantity t(v^
^,) is
Case
II.
rounded to the nearest unit of the last tabular place, a new error
For example, if v = log 1633 = 3.21299, and
is introduced.
l
v
3.21325 from a 5-place table, v^
log 1634
units of the last tabular place
and if t
1/3, t(v^
v^)
Sf
so that by the method of interpolation in question there results
v
Now the actual errors of v and
3- 2I 383.21299 -j- 9
vz
-\-2^>
v^ are, as
found from a /-place table,
Hence
of the fifth place.
0)>
rectly
0.38 and -f-o.2i in units

the actual error of v is by equation
+ 0.21
0.38
by a
/-place table.
-5-
0.52, as
is
shown
di
appears, then, that in this case the error-equation cor

responding to (i) is
It
t=
wherein
that
last
el
and
e^
(i
are the
&*+*
-fy^r
same as in
comes from rounding
t(v^
(4)
and
(i)
v^) to
^s is the actual error
the nearest unit of the
tabular place.
The error ea however, differs radically in kind from e and
The two latter are continuous, that is, they may each have
,
e^.
any value, between the
limits
0.5
and +0.5
while e 3
is
dis
continuous, being limited to a finite number of values depend

ent on the interpolating factor t.
Thus, for /
1/2 the only
and
of
e
are
likewise
for /
values
o
a
1/2
-j- 1/2,
possible
1/3, the
is
only possible values of
also clear that the
equal to 1/2 for
on
The maximum
e 3 are o,
value of
+ 1/3, and
e,
which
variable for (4) in a
(i), is
For example,
/.
maximum
1/2
i,
"
"
The determination
errors
(i
f)e l
and
It
manner dependent
for
+ 1/2 =
=
1/2 + 1/3
5/6,
1/2 + 1/2 =
e = 1/2 + 2/5 = 9/10
of e
"/=
novelty, since
1/3.
constant and
in (4),
"e
some
is
I,
"
= 1/2,
= 1/3,
/ = i/4,
/ = 1/5.
/
of the law of error for this case presents
it
te^
is
essential to
combine the continuous
with the discontinuous error e3
The
40
mode
simplest
put
in (4) e
/X =
e, (l
e =r
fo
fol
In the notation of Arts. 12 and
lowing quasi-geometrical one.

13,
problem seems to be the
of attacking the
e,)
and
ea ,
e,, te^
63
es
es
Then
(5)
The law of error for (e -\- e ) is given by equation (2) for any
t.
Hence for a given value of / there will be as many
The
expressions of 0(e) as there are different values of e
a
value of
same form but
graphs of 0(e) will all be of the
placed with reference to the axis of 0(e).

values of e 9 are
B
be differently
if
t
Thus,
1/3 the
will
1/3, o,
and
and these are equally

-|- 1/3,
to
occur. For e 3
o the
likely
graph is given directly by (2),
and is the trapezoid ABCD
symmetrical with respect to OQ.
For e 3
abQd,
of
ABCD
1/3 the graph is

the same form as
but shifted to the
by the amount
of
e-
left
1/3.
Similarly, the graph for the case
=+
of ea
1/3
is
the right by an
Now,
a Qb d and is produced by
amount equal to
1/3.
,
shifting
ABCD to
since the three systems of errors for this case are
equally likely to occur, they may be combined into one system

by simple addition of the corresponding element areas of the
Inspection of the diagram shows* that
several graphs.
resultant law of error

0(e)
is
expressed by
= (i/4)(5 + 6e)
=
i
(i/4 )(5
- 6e)
for
for
for
5/6
<
<
1/6,
>|
i/6<e<
+ 1/6
<
<
+ i/6,
+ 5/6. J
represented by a trapezoid whose lower base

base
upper
2/6, and altitude I.
This
is
Sum
the three areas and
required by equation
(3),
the
divide
Art. 10.
by
3 to
make
(6)
is
resultant area
10/6,
I,
as
41
As
a second illustration, consider equation (5) for the case

In this case e, must be either o or 1/2, the sign of
1/2.
/=
which
latter
is
0(e) = 2
-L-
= o,
e3
4.6
for
4e
for
equations
1/2
<
<
e<-[-
(2)
o,
-\
1/2.
<
give
represented by the isosceles triangle

altitude OQ is twice the base AE.
This function
whose
For
arbitrary.
is
Similarly 0(e) for
e,
-f-
would
1/2
be represented by the triangle
AQE
dis
^4<2
and
placed to the right a distance 1/2
e
e
for
and
o
two
if the
a
3
systems
;
-f-
be combined into one system,
1/2
their resultant law of error
0(e)=
for
l-\-2e
1/2
foro<
= 2-2efor +
is
<e<
evidently
o,
j
+ i/2,
e<
(8)
l/2<e<i;)
the graph of which is ABCD. On the

other hand, if the errors in this combined system be considered
with respect to magnitude only, the law of error is
0(e)
2(1
e)
the graph of which is OQD.

The student should observe that
the condition
whole range of
e.
<p(e)de
The determination
if
for
e<
(9)
I,
(6), (7), (8),
and
(9) satisfy
the integration embraces the
of the general
the interpolating factor
<
form of 0(e)
in
terms of
for the present case presents
some
difficulties, and there does not appear to be any published solu

tion of this problem.* The results arising from one phase of
the problem have been given, however, by the author in the
Annals
of
proof.
The phase
Mathematics, f and
i/w, n being
in
question
may be
is
any positive integer
less
* The author
explained a general method of
summer meeting of the American Mathematical
f
Vol.
II,
pp. 54-59.
here stated without
that wherein
/ is
of the
form
than twice the greatest

solution in a paper read at the
Society, August, 1895.
tabular difference of the table to which the formulas are

ap
For this restricted form of / the possible maximum
plied.
value of e as given by equation (5) is, in units of the

tabular place, (zn
i)/n for n odd and I for n even.
The
possible values of e s of equation (5) are

I
2
n
i
09
n"-
2
-,
-,
is
as
that
-^-,
for
even.
important fact with regard to the error 1/2 for n even

its
sign
arbitrary, or
is
the case with
is
n
.
for* odd,
-^T
O,
An
last
all
not fixed by the computation

However, the com
is
the other errors.
which makes the rounded last figure of an inter

polated value even when half a unit is to be disposed of, will,
puter
s rule,
in the long-run,
The laws
make
of error
this error as often plus as minus.
which
result are then as follows
For n odd.
0(e)
for
e)
I
(p(e)
between
for e
ft ~~~
2TI
i/2n and
-f-
i/2n,
ebetw. î/2n and
For n even.
0(e)
-.
2n
ej
for e
i
"
2(n
By means
r(i
e)
for 6
betw
for e
between
between o and
of these formulas
and
(i)
The
i/n) and
qp (n
the probable,
of n can be readily
of Art.
mean, and average errors for any value

found.
l/n and
1 1
com
The maximum
added. The verifica
following table contains the results of such a
putation for values of n ranging

actual error for each value of n
from
is
also
to 10.
tion of the tabular quantities will afford a useful exercise to the
student.
43
TYPICAL ERRORS OF INTERPOLATED LOGARITHMS, ETC.
When
the interpolating factor t has the more general form

and n are integers with no common factor, the
m/n, wherein
possible values of e a are the same as for

tions (3) of Art. 12 are not the same for t
But equa
i/n.
= m/n as for/ =
i/n,
and hence for the more general form of /, 0(e) assumes a new
type which is somewhat more complex than that discussed
above. The limits of this work render it impossible to extend
the investigation to these more complex forms of 0(e). It may
suffice, therefore, to give
namely, that for which

0(e)
=i
for e
e)
(5/^)( I 3/ I
=
=
a single instance of such a function,

For this case
2/5.
e)
(5/3)(4/5
between o and
between
for e
between
for
between
=F
=F I/IO,
i/io and
e)
(5/6)(9/io
of the right-hand half of A
this function is shown in the accompany
The graph
ing diagram, the whole graph being

symmetrical with respect to OA, or the
axis of 0(e).
Attention
may be
called to the strik
ing resemblance of this graph to that of

the law of error of least squares.
Prob. 23.
= 0.29
-,
Show from equations
for
o,
to
1/^24
varies from 0.25 to 1/6 for the
(3) that
= 0.20 +,
same
limits.
e m varies
for /
0.5
from
and that ea
44:
Show
Prob. 24.
for the case of
and
that the probable, mean, and average errors

0.261,
2/5 cited above (p. 43) are
0.251,
0.290, respectively.
ART.
STATISTICAL TEST OF THEORY.
14.
statistical test of the theory developed in Art. 13 may

be readily drawn from any considerable number of actual er
rors of interpolated values dependent on the same interpolating
factor.
The application of such a test, if carried out fully by
the student, will go far also towards fixing clear notions as to
the meaning of the critical errors.
Consider
the case in which an interpolated value
first
falls
midway between two consecutive values, and suppose this

interpolated value retains two additional figures beyond the
Then by equations
tabular place.
last
error of this interpolated value
=2
=2
0(e)
Hence by equation
probable
It
error in
-(-
4e for
(2),
Art. 13, the law of
is
between
0.5
45 for e between o and

(i) of Art.
this
system
follows, therefore, that in
1 1,
and o
0.5.
-j~
or equation (3) of Art. 12, the
of errors
is
()
1/2
= 0.15.
any large number of actual errors

and half greater than 0.15.
of this system, half should be less
whole number of such errors the percentage

between the values o.o and 0.2 should be
+ O.Q
+ 0-2
Similarly, of the
falling
(f)(e)de
= 2/(2 - ê)de = 0.64
_0.2
that
less
is,
sixty-four per cent of the errors in question should be
numerically than
To
afford a
more
0.2.
detailed comparison in this case, the act
hundred interpolated values from a 5-place

computed by means of a /-place table. The
ual errors of five
table have been
arguments used were the following numbers

20005, 2OC
The
20065, 20105, 20135, etc., in the same order to 36635.
:
35>
actual
and theoretical percentages of the whole number of

between the limits o.o and o.i, o.i and 0.2, etc.,,
errors falling
are
shown
in the tabular
form following

Actual
Theoretical
Percentage.
Percentage.
T
( v
of Errors.
Limits
.
45
o.o
and
o.i
33.2
o.i
and
0.2
30.2
36
28
O.2
and
0.3
19.0
20
0.3
and 0.4
13.2
12
0.4 and 0.5
4.4
51.4
50
o.o and o.i
The agreement shown here between

percentages
is
maximum
quite close, the
and the average
the actual and theoretical
discrepancy being 2.8
per cent.
1.5
Secondly, consider the case of interpolated mid-values of the

The law of error for
species treated under Case II of Art. 13.
given by the single equation (9) of Art. 13, namely,
e), no regard being paid to the signs of the errors.
2(1
0(e)
The probable error is then found from
this case
is
whence
ep
the whole number
\/2
= 0.29.
of errors
Similarly, the percentage of
which may be expected to
example, between o.o and 0.2
in this
system
lie,
for
is
0.2
e)de
\J(l
Using the same
above, but rounding
lar place
o.o
0.2
five
hundred interpolated values cited
them
to the nearest unit of the last tabu
and computing
table, the following
= 0.36.
their actual errors
comparison
is
and 0.2 .......... ........... 35.8

and 0.4 ...................... 27.8
.
0.4 and 0.6 ....................

.
0.6 and
O.8 and
o.o
by means of a /-place
afforded
36
28
8.6
20
12
0.8
......................
12.2
i.o
......................
5.6
and 0.29 ..................... 49.8
50
46
The agreement shown here between

percentages
maximum
is
somewhat
the actual and theoretical
closer than in the preceding case, the
discrepancy being only 1.6 and the average only 0.6
per cent.
Finally, the following data derived from one thousand act
ual errors may be cited.
The errors of one hundred inter
polated values rounded to the nearest unit of the last tabular

* for each of the
place were computed
interpolating factors
The averages of these several groups of act
o.i, 0.2,
0.9.
.
ual errors are given along with the corresponding theoretical

errors in the parallel columns below:
Interpolating
Factor.
Actual
Theoretical
Average Error.
Average Error.
o.i.
0.2
0.303
0.320
0.321
0.304
0.4
O.268
0.290
0-5
0.324
0.333
0.6 ...
0.276
0.290
O./
O.32I
0.304
0.8
0.289
0.303
0.9
0.347
0.320
0.3
The average discrepancy between

values
ical
0.338
0.288
shown here
is
the actual and theoret
It
O.OI7
perhaps,
is,
somewhat
smaller than should be expected, since the computation of the

actual errors to three places of decimals
by the assumption of dependence on
The average
of the
is
first
hardly warranted
differences only.
whole number of actual errors
in
this
is 0.308, which agrees to the same number of decimals

with the average of the theoretical errors, f
case
The
f
By
Prof.
H. A. Howe.
theoretical averages
The reader who
squares will find
it
is
See Annals of Mathematics, Vol.
were furnished to Prof.
Ill, p.
by the author,
acquainted with the elements of the method of
instructive to apply that
and derive the probable error
of
e.
This
is
74.
Howe
method
least
to equation (i), Art. 13,
frequently done without reserve by

Prob. 25.
Apply formulas
47
(3) of Art. 12 to the case of the sum.
or difference of two tabular logarithms and derive the correspond

The graph
ing values of the probable, mean, and average errors.
of 0(e) is in this case an isosceles triangle whose base, or axis of e,
and whose
is 2,
altitude, or axis of 0(e),
Thus, the probable error of
those familiar with least squares.

0.25, the probable error of e
is i.
e\
or
ft
being
found to be
is
0.25 Vi
This varies between 0.25 for

the probable error, as
same values
for the
t =.
o and
o. 18
shown by equations
of
It
t.
for
(3),
=\
while the true value of
Art. 13, varies
from 0.25
to 0.15
method
of least
indeed, remarkable that the
is,
squares, which admits infinite values for the actual errors
e\
and
ez ,
should give
so close an approximate formula as the above for the probable error of

Similarly, one accustomed to the
to apply
it
to equation (4), Art.
natural blunder in this case

fi
and
<?
is
13, to
In
.is
derived.
But
The formula
0.5.
and
to assign a probable
manner the value
rai
this is absurd, since
fails
e.
would be inclined
determine the probable error of e. The

and e s independent, and e a like
to consider e it ez
0.25
near
of least squares
continuous betweer the limits o.o and 0.5
error of 6.25 to each.
is
method
it
gives 0.25
^2
instead of 0.25 for /
= o.
then to give even approximate results except for values of
INDEX.
Average
Mean
error, 33, 34.
of interpolated logarithm, 38, 43.
of tabular logarithm, 34.
error, 33, 34.
of interpolated logarithms, 38, 43.

of tabular logarithms, 34.
MeYe, Chevalier de,
Babbage:
Ninth Bridge water
7.
Method
treatise of, 26.
of least squares, 10, 46, 47.

Montmort, work cited 8.
Bernoulli, James:
theorem
work
of, 22.
Observations, errors
Bertrand, work cited, 23.

Bessel,
of, 30, 31.
cited, 8.
work
7, 8.
Pascal,
cited, 35.
Permutations, 11-18.
formulas
Chance, games of, 7.

Combinations, 13-16.
formulas
n,
for,
12.
table of, ii.

for,
14-16.
work
cited, 7, 20, 24.
Probable error, 33, 34.
table of, 15.
of interpolated logarithms, 38, 43.

of tabular logarithms, 34.
Concurrent events, 19-21.
De Moivre, work cited, 8.

De Morgan, work cited, 13,
Poisson,
Probabilities, 16-30.
22.
direct, 16-18.
inverse, 24-27.
Error equation, 31.
of concurrent events, 19-21.

of concurrent testimony, 26.
function, 31.
Errors, theory of, 30-47.
Fermat,
Games
of future events, 27-30.
Probability integral, 23.
7, 8.
of chance,
Gamma function,
tables
Geographical
Resultant error, 34.
7.
28.
(of
Smithsonian
Institution) cited, 10.
Graphs
of laws of error, 32, 36, 40, 41,
Shortrede, tables cited, 13.

Statistical test of theory, 44-46.
Stirling s theorem, 22, 23.
43-
Howe, computation of, cited,

Huygens, work cited, 8.
46.
Integral, probability, 23.
table of, 24.
Jevons,
work
cited, 16.
Table of combinations,
of statistical test, 45, 46.

of typical errors, 43.
Tabular values, errors
Theory
Laws
of error, 31-33.
15.
of permutations, n.
of probability integral, 24.
of,
34-38.
of errors, 30-47.
of interpolated values, 37-46.
work
cited, 7, 28.
interpolated logarithms, 34-47.
Todhunter,
least squares, 10, 43, 46, 47.
Typical errors, 33, 43.
I.,
tabular logarithms, 32.
Least squares,
10, 43, 47.
Laplace, work
cited, 9, 22.
Logarithmic
tables, 37-43.
Values of combinations,
15.
of permutations, n.
of typical errors, 43.
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LIBRARY

Mansfield Merriman and Robert S. Woodward.

HISTORY OF MODERN MATHEMATICS.

SYNTHETIC PROJECTIVE GEOMETRY.

By LAENAS GIFFORD WELD.

QRASSMANN S SPACE ANALYSIS.

VECTOR ANALYSIS AND QUATERNIONS.

By WILLIAM WOOLSEY JOHNSON.

THE SOLUTION OF EQUATIONS.

FUNCTIONS OF A COMPLEX VARIABLE.

JOHN WILEY & SONS,

MANSFIELD MERRIMAN AND ROBERT

PRESIDENT CARNEGIE INSTITUTION OF WASHINGTON.

CHAPMAN & HALL,

Second Edition, January,

Fourth Edition, January,

ROBKRT DRUMMOND, PRINTER,

volume called Higher Mathematics, the first edition

eleven authors, each chapter being independent of the others,

training equivalent to that given in classical and engineering

and the chapters are issued in separate form. In these reissues

and the convenience

publishers and editors to add other

readers in special lines of

It is the intention of the

the topics which are under

consideration are those of elliptic functions, the theory of

astronomy, mechanics, and mathematical physics

hope of the editors that this form of

this short treatise in

but offers no apology.

book form the author

to imitate is that shown in the

of applied mathematics; and it is hoped that this treatise will

and of great practical importance. Though developed

No special novelty of presentation is claimed for this work;

passage from the elementary concrete to the advanced

difficulties may be easily overcome by means

and that any serious

come from bridging such gaps and from surmounting such

PROBABILITY OF CONCURRENT EVENTS

PROBABILITIES OF FUTURE EVENTS

TYPICAL ERRORS OF A SYSTEM

LAWS OF RESULTANT ERROR

ERRORS OF INTERPOLATED VALUES

PROBABILITY AND THEORY OF ERRORS.

a curious circumstance that a science so profoundly

nated in the games of chance which occupy the thoughtless and

of its familiar illustrations are

directly from the

vocabulary and the paraphernalia of the gambler and the

surprising, also, considering the antiquity

Pascal was led to consider the subject during the

as the problem of points and may be stated as follows

certain stage of their

the stakes be divided

they stop at this stage, how should

Fermat on this question

earliest distinct formulation

of principles falling within the theory of probability.

* The historical facts referred to in this article are drawn

Probability des Jugements (Paris, 1837).

PROBABILITY AND THEORY OF ERRORS.

Todhunter says of Montmort, for example, "In 1708 he published his